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00:00I'm going to do a real Senbero documentary, where I calculate my own money and put it together.
00:10On Saturday, I'm going to do a real Senbero documentary in Odori, Kasuga.
00:26Good morning.
00:28On May 17th, I'm going to talk about the news.
00:32Let me introduce today's guest.
00:35Mr. Tsuneo Watanabe of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, who specializes in American politics and foreign policy.
00:40Good morning.
00:42Thank you for having me.
00:44Mr. Yoko Hirose of Keio University, who specializes in the former Soviet Union.
00:49Good morning.
00:51Thank you for having me.
00:53And Mr. Takashi Hirano of Ukraineform, a Japanese-language editor.
01:00He will be joining us via Zoom from Ukraine.
01:02Thank you for joining us, Mr. Hirano.
01:04Thank you for having me.
01:07Today, I'm going to talk with these three people.
01:11Let's take a look at what's going on.
01:13Here it is.
01:16Mr. Tsuneo.
01:18I thought it was going to move forward, but it's not.
01:23I'd like the guests to evaluate whether or not there were any results.
01:30The keyword is the decoration delegation.
01:34We talked about the delegation of President Zelensky from Russia.
01:37We talked about the delegation of President Zelensky from Russia.
01:43I'd like to read out what the Russian side was aiming for.
01:49Moody's Ratings, a U.S. lock-up company,
01:54lowered its long-term credit lock-up from the highest level on the 16th.
02:00It pointed out that the U.S. asset deficit has not been reduced under the Trump administration and the Fed.
02:06Moody's was the only company in the U.S. that had its lock-up at the highest level.
02:14The fact that Moody's is no longer at the highest level means that the company is no longer at the highest level.
02:20It's a pretty big deal.
02:22The Moody's announcement raised the U.S. long-term credit to 4.49% at one point.
02:27It went up to 4.48%.
02:29At the end of the 16th, it was 4.48%.
02:34Let's hear from Mr. Watanabe.
02:39Mr. Watanabe, what do you think about the lock-up?
02:42Well, Moody's is saying that it has nothing to do with tariffs.
02:48But by raising tariffs, the value of the company will drop,
02:55and this will have an impact on the Trump administration's tariff policy.
02:59But this won't solve the long-term asset deficit.
03:04This is a structural problem.
03:06Even if it's not Trump, it's still a problem.
03:08It's a complete income, but they're saying it's going to be a source of cash.
03:13That's right.
03:14And as Mr. Watanabe said, for example, Japan is also the most world-class country in the U.S.
03:21The fact that the interest rate is going up means that the value of the company is going down.
03:27It's something we can't ignore.
03:28That's right.
03:29Actually, when the tariffs were imposed,
03:33a lot of Japanese investors sold their shares.
03:38The Trump administration should be very concerned about this.
03:43That's right.
03:45After the commercial break, let's take a look at what was decided and what was not decided
03:51in the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which were held for the first time in three years.
03:56We will resume direct negotiations, without any preconditions.
04:05On the 11th, Putin, the Russian president, called for a direct negotiation with Ukraine.
04:13On the other hand, Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, also asked for a 30-day ceasefire.
04:22I will be in Turkey on the 15th of May.
04:26And I'm waiting for Putin in Turkey. Personally.
04:31That's what he said.
04:37The U.S. President Trump also expressed his intention to participate in direct negotiations,
04:42and the expectations were high that the negotiations would proceed in the three-nation competition.
04:50The Russian delegation led by President Medzhensky appeared in Istanbul, Turkey.
04:58President Putin was not present.
05:05Mr. Zelensky.
05:08We need to understand the level of the Russian delegation,
05:12what are their mandates, and whether they are able to accept something themselves.
05:17Because we all know who is making the decisions in Russia.
05:23The Russian delegation expressed dissatisfaction that it was just a decoration,
05:27and once again claimed that they needed to negotiate without any preconditions.
05:33As for the negotiations without any preconditions, Mr. Trump said,
05:38Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together, okay?
05:43He also said that the U.S. delegation needed to negotiate without any preconditions.
05:52In the end, a day later, the Turkish delegation also participated in the direct negotiations.
06:01I would like to emphasize something here.
06:04We will decide the next step together in terms of the choices we will make and the steps we will take.
06:11It is also very important for these negotiations to form the basis of a leaders' meeting.
06:20The negotiations, which are said to have lasted about two hours,
06:25The Russian side, as a prerequisite for the ceasefire,
06:29sought the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the area occupied by the Russian army.
06:38It was once again confirmed that there is a big gap between Russia and Ukraine,
06:44which is a precondition that is hard to accept in Ukraine.
06:48After the direct negotiations, the representatives of both sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners,
06:57and to continue the direct negotiations in the future.
07:07The road to a still invisible ceasefire.
07:11Will Ukraine and Russia be able to find a compromise by continuing the negotiations?
07:23Trump, who is also motivated by the ceasefire,
07:27said that he would talk to Putin as soon as he was ready.
07:34Will the U.S.-Russia talks be realized?
07:41I will tell you about the Russian-Ukrainian direct negotiations, which have been held for about three years.
07:47I will look at the three themes, but the first one is the results of the direct negotiations.
07:53The Russian-Ukrainian direct negotiations, which have been held for about three years,
07:57were held in Istanbul, Turkey on the 16th, a day late from the scheduled 15th, for about two hours.
08:05President Putin and President Zelensky did not attend, and it was a high-level meeting.
08:11The Russian side, led by President Mezhinsky, who also participated in the direct negotiations in 2022,
08:18was attended by former Japanese Ambassador Garujin Gaimjikan and Fomin Kokubojikan.
08:24The Ukrainian side, led by Umerov Kokubojikan, was attended by the Director-General of the Intelligence Agency and Deputy Director-General of the Military Intelligence Agency.
08:33The contents of the agreement are the continuation of the direct negotiations and the documentization of the conditions for the ceasefire.
08:39However, there is no clear deadline for this.
08:43And a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war between 1,000 people and 1,000 people.
08:49Ukraine has called for the inauguration of President Zelensky and President Putin,
08:54and Russia is seeking to withdraw the Ukrainian army from the periphery occupied by Russia.
09:01Ms. Hiroshi, what do you think of this result?
09:04Well, if you look at the situation from the point of view of the situation,
09:10it is as expected.
09:13As we no longer have the ability to negotiate at the level of prisoners of war,
09:17I don't think we can expect a high-level progress.
09:21In such a situation, I think it is necessary to think that it is better to decide to exchange prisoners of war.
09:28These participants, especially the Russian delegation,
09:32say that President Zelensky is a decoration,
09:35but what should we look at, including Mr. Mezhinsky, who is at the center of this?
09:40Mr. Mezhinsky and Mr. Fomin will continue from 2022.
09:45Russia is in a position to resume talks in March 2022.
09:52In order to strengthen the impression that the reunion will continue,
09:57it is very important that two people, Mr. Mezhinsky and Mr. Fomin, are included.
10:03As for Mr. Galuzhin, it is a short time, so I think it is okay to include him.
10:09Another person, Mr. Koshchukov, who is a member of the GRU, is included.
10:18He is a person who has a lot of attention from the west,
10:23and he was sanctioned from the United States by intervening in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
10:29In 2018, there was a murder of a double-spy named Skripal in the United States.
10:38After all, he is not dead.
10:41Mr. Sturges, who did it, was killed, and he was sanctioned from the UK.
10:48He is a very subtle person.
10:51Even such a person is included.
10:53Is Mr. Mezhinsky in a position where he can directly talk to Mr. Putin?
10:59That's exactly right.
11:01He is said to be Mr. Putin's history teacher, and he is a former Minister of Culture.
11:06Especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, Mr. Putin was in complete contact with the outside world,
11:12but Mr. Mezhinsky taught history to Putin quite frequently.
11:17It is also said that Mr. Mezhinsky taught the basics of the so-called Ukrainian thesis
11:23that Putin announced in April 2021.
11:28Is he originally from Ukraine?
11:31He was born in Ukraine.
11:34He is completely Russian and a patriot.
11:39He has experience in Ukraine, so he can understand the feelings of Ukrainians.
11:45He has also played a role in the emotional part of the negotiations.
11:53Regardless of whether he has the right to decide, he is not just a decoration, is he?
11:59That's right. He is not just a decoration.
12:02However, if you look at it from the Ukrainian side, there are three ministers in Ukraine,
12:07so of course he is inferior to them.
12:10If you look at it from the Ukrainian side, it can't be helped to be called a decoration.
12:15Mr. Hirano, how do you accept the results of this direct negotiation?
12:22Well, if you look at the big picture, the most clear thing is that Russia has no intention of making peace or a ceasefire at all.
12:30Even though Ukraine and Russia pushed for an unconditional ceasefire on the 10th,
12:36Putin, who should have decided on a ceasefire, did not come out.
12:42I think it is well known that Russia does not feel the merit of making a ceasefire at all at this stage.
12:51I don't think things will move unless Russia is pressured to make a ceasefire,
12:56but I think it will be important whether or not the U.S. will be pressured in the future.
13:04From President Zelensky's point of view, how do you feel about the results this time?
13:15Well, I don't think Zelensky thought that Russia would come to a ceasefire.
13:21I told him to come out, but I don't think he came out.
13:26The reason I called him out is because the U.S. believes in Putin's goodwill.
13:34To make it clear that Russia does not intend to make a ceasefire at all and does not intend to make peace,
13:41I think he took action this time to make the logic clear that he must put pressure on Russia.
13:54I see. Mr. Watanabe, what did you think?
13:58Well, first of all, President Trump is very motivated in the first place,
14:07and he was angry that the U.S. side, that is, the Russian side, did not come to a ceasefire at all.
14:15As for the Russian side, they are at least motivated.
14:20However, as the two of you have said so far, they are not actually motivated.
14:26That's what stood out.
14:29Let's check the significance of that.
14:32President Putin called for a direct negotiation between Russia and Ukraine in response to President Trump's call for a 30-day non-conditional ceasefire.
14:43President Zelensky said that if there was no summit, the negotiations would not progress, and that he would wait for Putin's death in Turkey,
14:50and that President Zelensky, President Putin, and President Trump would meet and proceed to a ceasefire.
14:58However, Russia dispatched a delegation led by President Medzhensky, and Ukraine dispatched a delegation led by Defense Minister Umelov.
15:07As a result, President Trump did not participate.
15:10Mr. Watanabe, how did the Trump administration react to this call for a ceasefire?
15:17Originally, at first, they thought of a ceasefire, that is, a ceasefire within 24 hours.
15:25The reason for the ceasefire was that Ukraine would be in trouble if U.S. support stopped,
15:34and they would push the conditions from Putin to Ukraine.
15:39If that was the case, it would be advantageous to Russia, so Putin would also come.
15:43But it wasn't like that at all.
15:45Ukraine put a lot of pressure on them to prepare,
15:49but in fact, on the 100th day of the election, before Mr. Trump was about to give a speech on the results,
15:58the Russian side launched a military attack on Ukraine,
16:02which showed that they were not motivated at all.
16:05It was probably the first time that Mr. Trump was angry with Putin.
16:09That's where it started.
16:11That's why, if Putin ignores it too much,
16:15Trump's anger will increase, and if it goes on like this,
16:19Trump will probably approach Ukraine or Europe.
16:25If that's the case, I think we have to show a position where we negotiate to some extent.
16:34That's where they started negotiating directly.
16:37It doesn't matter if Trump does it,
16:40but if he does it well, I think President Trump will show that if Putin comes, he will go.
16:47I'm sure he had expectations, but in the end, he didn't move this time,
16:52so I think there was a lot of dissatisfaction.
16:54Let's sort out the differences between the two sides.
16:57Yes, I saw a lot of differences.
17:00President Mezhinsky, who is in charge of the Russian side,
17:04said that this competition is a continuation of the peacekeeping competition in Istanbul three years ago.
17:09As a whole, we are satisfied with the results.
17:13On the other hand, Umerov, who is in charge of the Ukrainian side,
17:17said that the top priority in the competition is the liberation of war prisoners,
17:21and the second priority is securing a ceasefire.
17:25I would like to confirm the Istanbul agreement that was discussed as the Russian side's position.
17:31The Istanbul agreement, which was issued in April 2022,
17:35guarantees the security of Ukraine's NATO ceasefire,
17:38international security guarantees of Ukraine,
17:43and security guarantees by the United States, the UK, France, and Turkey.
17:47It is said that it was an advantageous condition for the Russian side
17:52that it was obliged not to ask for military support from the Ukrainian military,
17:58and that it was not allowed to enter NATO.
18:01It is written that it is a security guarantee by the United States,
18:06but it is not allowed to enter NATO.
18:09The Ukrainian military should be reduced,
18:12and military support should not be asked from the Western countries.
18:15Then how do you guarantee security?
18:18It seems like that.
18:21It is said that the Russian side started a ceasefire three years ago.
18:26Ms. Hiroo, how do you feel about this?
18:29Yes, it is true.
18:31This is a completely advantageous situation for Russia.
18:34Since last May, President Putin has been talking about this ceasefire,
18:39and he said that he was ready to make a ceasefire.
18:43However, the British Prime Minister at the time, Johnson,
18:47said that he was going to make a ceasefire,
18:50and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
18:53and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
18:56and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
18:59and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
19:02and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
19:05and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
19:08and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
19:11and that he was going to make a ceasefire,
19:14and that's why Mr. Putin and President Putin have pointed out
19:17that Russia has motivation.
19:20I think they are aiming to make the West more likely to have a cesefire.
19:26Ms. Hiroo, how do you feel about this Istanbul Accords?
19:30He's right.
19:32I've always said you have to be careful about this.
19:35The Istanbul Accords is pretty much similar to proposal of Russia.
19:39I think you have to be careful that there is a lot of fake information
19:43In fact, it is probably true that there was such an agreement, but why was such a discussion taking place?
19:50In other words, if Russia had an advantageous discussion,
19:53the invasion would have been carried out and Kyiv might have been invaded,
19:58and Halki might have been suppressed,
20:00and Ukraine would have had to take back the information that it had shown
20:05in the ultimate choice of whether the country would be destroyed or the sovereignty would be taken down.
20:11Originally, the invasion was a crime of international law,
20:14and one country's sovereignty could not be restricted by the invasion,
20:17but rather than being destroyed,
20:19I thought that I might not be able to do it if I didn't show this much information,
20:22so I showed it at the time, but now the situation is completely different.
20:25At that time, the election was completely different,
20:29and the international community was in a state of not knowing whether to support it or not at the time,
20:34but now we can see that they are definitely supporting Ukraine,
20:38so there is no need to go back to this agreement at all.
20:43Even so, Russia has made it a big goal to go back there,
20:49and as Mr. Hirose said,
20:51Russia has been insisting that it must go back there for more than a year.
20:55What Russia is happy about now is that it was able to show the same shape at the time as Istanbul,
21:02and I think that the fact that it has returned is propaganda itself.
21:07I think we need to be careful about that,
21:09and I think it is necessary to listen to the fact that Ukraine is insisting that it will never go back there.
21:14In other words, the Russian side is still attacking,
21:18and the word narrative is often used,
21:21but that kind of thing has spread,
21:23and now they are trying to base what was done in a sense of air that Ukraine is in trouble,
21:28again.
21:31That's right.
21:32In other words, in order to achieve the purpose of the invasion,
21:35I think that Russia's current goal is to bring it to the point where Ukraine's sovereignty is restricted,
21:39at least as much as possible.
21:41I think the goal is that Ukraine should never go back there.
21:44That's the difference.
21:46Yes.
21:47After the commercial break, we will move on to the true intentions of Russia and Ukraine.
21:58We have heard about the results of the direct negotiations held on the 16th,
22:03but from here, we will move on to the second theme, the true intentions of Russia and Ukraine.
22:07President Trump is trying to get ahead of the deadline,
22:10and he is trying to get information on the early deadline for Ukraine's President Zelensky,
22:15and he is also calling for negotiations while indicating additional sanctions against Russian President Putin.
22:21President Zelensky has requested a 30-day non-conditional deadline
22:25and the withdrawal of all territory.
22:30President Putin said that the direct negotiations this time were based on the 2022 bill,
22:34which included the withdrawal of four provinces in Ukraine, the east and south,
22:38and the abolishment of the Nato and Kamei.
22:44Mr. Watanabe, Mr. Trump is calling for various things and putting pressure on both sides,
22:51and the results of this direct negotiation have come out.
22:56Where is your true intention right now?
23:01My true intention is to get results. I want to stop the war.
23:06You said you wanted to stop the war.
23:08It's not that I really want to stop the war, but I want to show that I stopped the war.
23:15At first, I said I would do it within 24 hours, but now I'm extending it to 6 months,
23:19and 6 months is about to come.
23:23As for Mr. Trump's negotiation style,
23:26usually such difficult negotiations are left to the bottom,
23:30and the top comes out when the tree has matured to some extent.
23:35But he says he will do it in the top down,
23:38so that makes Trump's negotiation style quite difficult.
23:44It's hard to do on the spot, and you have to do it while making Mr. Trump's face.
23:49Even though he's aiming for political results,
23:52whether he's really aiming for a ceasefire,
23:55or whether he wants to help Ukraine to some extent and maintain international order,
24:00it's very questionable.
24:02The Russian side also thinks so.
24:04This is a chance, and the Russian side also thinks so,
24:07so on the contrary, we should be considerate of the United States.
24:10If the United States really loses Mr. Trump,
24:13and puts a distance from Putin, that would be a problem,
24:16so we should be considerate of that.
24:18Mr. Zelensky on the Ukrainian side has already had a fight with Mr. Trump.
24:22They've had a lot of fights.
24:25The European side is working hard to build up the relationship,
24:28and is trying to make good use of it.
24:31On the contrary, if the Russian side is too cold,
24:34the other side will warm up, so I think this is a chance.
24:37On the contrary, the Russian side should not let that happen.
24:40That's why this time it's a bit loose.
24:43Everyone knows that it won't move, but it will gather,
24:46and this kind of competition will start.
24:51Ms. Hiroko, what does Mr. Putin think of Mr. Trump?
24:55I think he first thought Mr. Trump was an easy opponent.
25:00For that reason, for him,
25:03time is the most desirable thing right now,
25:08so he's throwing the ball little by little to buy time.
25:13That ball is something that Russia can allow,
25:16and something that Mr. Trump will be happy about.
25:19He's throwing those things out little by little,
25:22and that's a dimensional line,
25:25and this time it's a direct negotiation,
25:28but Mr. Trump is okay with each of them.
25:32He understands that.
25:35For example, last month,
25:38Mr. Trump was very angry with Russia,
25:41and he said that Ukraine and Russia should not get involved.
25:44If that happens,
25:47Mr. Trump will be cut off,
25:50and that's a loss for Russia.
25:53As Mr. Watanabe said,
25:56for Ukraine,
25:59it's a situation that should be avoided,
26:02and Ukraine has experienced it.
26:05But Putin, who is watching from the side,
26:09is also worried that the same thing will happen to Russia.
26:12He wants to somehow draw America in,
26:15and he wants to buy time.
26:18If that happens, like now,
26:21he's throwing the ball little by little to buy time.
26:24I think that's what's going to happen.
26:27What do the people of Ukraine think right now?
26:30Here's a hint.
26:33This is the Kyiv International Society of Medical Research.
26:36It's the Kyiv International Society of Medical Research.
26:39This is what they looked up.
26:42It's the 30-day temporary term of suspension
26:44from the previous conditional period.
26:47They're doing public opinion polls,
26:50and I think the answer is that
26:53this red area is being accepted in a sentimental manner,
26:56but I think it's good as a means of showing Russia
26:59that it does not want peace.
27:02Also, the first step toward the end of the war,
27:05This is the first time we have seen this kind of response.
27:11Mr. Hirano, during the 30-day ceasefire,
27:15President Zelensky initially showed some difficulty,
27:19but Trump persuaded him to accept the ceasefire.
27:24What is the situation like for the people of Ukraine now?
27:29Well, of course, no one wants a war.
27:33Of course, we are an invaded country,
27:36so there is no doubt that we want the war to end as soon as possible.
27:40But the reason why the war is going on is because Russia wants it to.
27:46Even if Russia calls for a ceasefire,
27:50it probably won't be able to protect itself.
27:53We know this from our 2014 experience.
27:56We know that all the ceasefires have been broken.
27:59If there is a 30-day ceasefire,
28:02Russia may be able to show that it will break the ceasefire,
28:06but I don't think there are many people who are optimistic that it will actually lead to peace.
28:11I think you can see this well from the results of this intelligence survey.
28:15Moreover, the Russian side is trying to build on the fact that Ukraine is expanding its military.
28:25So, in that sense, it is quite skeptical as to how much Ukraine will benefit from the ceasefire.
28:35In the first place, what the people of Ukraine understand well is that Russia has not given up at all.
28:41Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
28:43Since 2014, Russia has had a big goal of dominating Ukraine, including all-out invasion.
28:49Russia is using various means to achieve this goal.
28:52Russia knows that it is better to stop military support for the ceasefire,
28:57and that it is better to stop military training for the ceasefire,
29:00and that it will definitely violate the ceasefire and continue to invade Ukraine.
29:04I think the people of Ukraine have a solid understanding that
29:08a ceasefire or peace will not work without putting pressure on Russia.
29:12Let's take a look at the exchange between Zelensky and Trump.
29:18On Feb. 28, they were supposed to agree on a resource agreement,
29:23but there was a fierce debate in front of the TV camera,
29:27and the support from the United States was temporarily stopped.
29:30In order to gain the support of the United States,
29:33President Zelensky sent a letter and talked on the phone to restore relations.
29:38On March 19, he agreed to stop the attack on the energy facility.
29:43After that, he also talked on the phone in front of the Roman Pope,
29:47and on April 30, he agreed to a resource agreement.
29:51The framework of the resource agreement between the United States and Ukraine.
29:55The United States and Ukraine will spend 50% each
29:58to create a joint fund for resource development
30:01and develop underground resources in Ukraine, such as rare earths.
30:04The funds will be used to recover funds that the United States has supported militarily.
30:11The mechanism and distribution of the funds will be decided in the future.
30:16Mr. Hirano, I heard that President Zelensky and Mr. Trump
30:20have a little bit of a relationship restoration.
30:24I also heard that the support rate is rising.
30:29What kind of attitude does the people have towards President Zelensky?
30:35Basically, I think that trust is certainly increasing.
30:39I don't think there are many people in society who think that the Zelensky regime
30:44is compromising the interests of Ukraine and what the people don't want.
30:50In comparison, Zelensky and Putin talked directly in 2019,
30:55but I think the trust in Zelensky at that time was very low.
30:59I thought that Zelensky might fail.
31:02As for this time, what Zelensky is saying is in line with the opinion of the people.
31:07I don't think Zelensky will make a big mistake.
31:10I think the trust in Zelensky will continue to be high in an important situation.
31:16At first, it seemed that the requests from the U.S. side were unilateral,
31:23but do you have the impression that the Ukrainian side has pushed back?
31:28Yes, when I saw the content of the action,
31:32it was said that it was a very dangerous agreement for the United States.
31:36However, the Ukrainian negotiation team negotiated very well
31:40and the content was 50-50.
31:42Various experts have analyzed it in such a way that both sides can benefit from it,
31:48so the Ukrainian people are also relieved.
31:51I don't think there are many people who understand the content of the agreement well,
31:55but I think everyone believes in experts' opinions and government officials' opinions
31:59that there is no big danger.
32:02On the other hand, what is the situation in Russia, including the people?
32:07This is also a result of a public opinion survey.
32:10This is the Levada Center.
32:12After all, President Putin is close to rejecting the 30-day ceasefire,
32:19but when the people hear this,
32:22it means that half of it is about support.
32:28Ms. Hirosa, what should we think about this?
32:31First of all, I think there is a problem of how much the Russian people recognize
32:37and have a common understanding of the ceasefire.
32:41In the first place, I think that the truth of the war in Ukraine
32:44is not usually understood by the Russian people
32:47because it is a special military operation.
32:52In such a situation, various problems, especially recently,
32:55such as inflation, are serious.
32:58I think that the impact of this war on us is great.
33:03The people who think like this are coming out little by little.
33:06The soldiers who are actually fighting in the front line
33:12are mainly from the region,
33:15but there are more and more graves in the region.
33:20As a matter of fact,
33:22the Russian people are aware that they are losing their friends.
33:29I'm sure there are people who think it's better to stop the war,
33:35but I don't think they feel the same way.
33:41Let's talk about the economic situation.
33:43The Russian Statistics Bureau announced on the 16th
33:47that GDP in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.4% in fact,
33:52which is an increase of 8.5 times in a row,
33:55but the growth rate is stagnant.
33:57The Stockholm Institute of Economic Research in Sweden
34:00says that the Russian economy is relatively stable,
34:03but only on the surface it seems to be at the bottom,
34:06and that the rate of economic growth is low,
34:08and that GDP in fact is reported as a problem.
34:12Ms. Hiroko, what do you think of the economic situation?
34:15As you just pointed out,
34:18it is said that the inflation rate is very low,
34:23and the nation feels about 14% to 15% inflation.
34:29There is also talk that the number of daily necessities,
34:32such as food, is increasing.
34:35As a result, there are more and more people
34:38who have various problems in their daily lives.
34:43At the time of the war, the inflation rate was said to be about 8%,
34:47and there was also an increase in salary,
34:51but now there is no increase in salary,
34:55so there is no doubt that the number of people
34:58who feel hungry for life is increasing.
35:00In addition, there is also a theory
35:02that the current economic growth rate
35:04is just being pulled by the war economy,
35:08and even so, the numbers are still being deceived.
35:12In addition, there are more and more people
35:15who say that the actual Russian economy
35:18is in a very bad shape.
35:23Does that have nothing to do with the war economy?
35:28Of course, it has nothing to do with it,
35:32but now all economies are focused on war,
35:37so I don't think there is a problem
35:40with the war economy,
35:43but in the first place,
35:46there are not many tanks and armored vehicles,
35:49and at the same time as they were made,
35:52they repaired what was stored in the warehouse,
35:55but now there are no tanks that can be repaired.
35:58There is such a problem,
36:01and it is said that there are about 500 tanks
36:04that can be made every year.
36:07However, Russia has lost about 2,000 tanks
36:10in the past year,
36:13so they have to change the way they fight,
36:16and I heard that they are changing it
36:19in terms of human-machine tactics.
36:22I think there is also a part
36:25where the economy and war are directly related.
36:28After the commercial break,
36:30we will talk about what will happen
36:32in the post-war competition.
36:34The third theme is the whereabouts of the ceasefire.
36:37Let's look back at Trump's statement.
36:40About the Ukrainian attack by the Russian army.
36:43Stop betraying Russia.
36:46About the 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
36:49If the ceasefire is not respected,
36:52the United States and its partners
36:55will impose further sanctions.
36:58As for this competition,
37:01nothing will happen until Putin and I meet.
37:04As for the fact that the ceasefire was not implemented,
37:07it is said that it will be as soon as possible
37:10to set an opportunity for talks with Putin.
37:13It is very important to predict
37:16what the United States will do
37:19about the whereabouts of the ceasefire,
37:22but Mr. Watanabe,
37:25looking back at your statement,
37:28I think you will continue to impose sanctions,
37:31but will they be added?
37:34Yes, in the first place.
37:37Depending on the situation,
37:40there is an option to add sanctions.
37:43In the end, what should we do to move Russia?
37:46Until then, President Trump was thinking
37:49that if he took a step closer to Russia,
37:52Vladimir would understand my intentions.
37:55However, if he realizes that this is not the case,
37:58he will try to move in a different direction.
38:01I don't think he's going to give up that way.
38:04What is actually happening in the Middle East now
38:07is that until then,
38:10it was a sudden ceasefire
38:13along the lines of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
38:16But if he breaks the ceasefire,
38:19it will not fit even if he suddenly goes to the Middle East.
38:22It wouldn't be strange if he did the same thing to Russia.
38:25So, whether it's good or bad,
38:28Mr. Trump's negotiation style
38:31is based on short-term results.
38:34If the other party doesn't move,
38:37he'll do something completely different.
38:40I think it's a negotiation style
38:43where even if he does that,
38:46he won't give up.
38:49In the end,
38:52there is a possibility that he will meet President Putin at any time.
38:55There has been a movement
38:58to skip Ukraine
39:01and move to a large framework
39:04in the U.S.
39:07What do you think about that?
39:10It's always in the options.
39:13As long as it's in a good shape for me,
39:16I don't think it's a bad thing.
39:19But I think it's a good thing
39:22if Mr. Trump can show his results.
39:25That's the most troublesome thing in the world.
39:28Ms. Hiroshi, how do you feel about Russia and the U.S.
39:31moving closer to each other?
39:34Mr. Putin
39:37doesn't recognize Ukraine
39:40as a country in the first place.
39:43I don't think it's a good idea
39:46to decide the current issue
39:49between the U.S. and Russia.
39:52Mr. Trump came out of Russia.
39:55It was a very desirable development for him.
39:58But as time went on,
40:01Mr. Trump's anger increased.
40:04This is still bad.
40:07He's been dealing with it in various ways.
40:10But if Mr. Trump comes out of Russia
40:13more aggressively,
40:16and if the two of them can decide
40:19the future,
40:22I think Mr. Putin will be happy to do so.
40:25For example,
40:28there was a discussion about
40:31whether or not to do it manually.
40:34It's like a chicken and an egg.
40:37If Mr. Trump really came,
40:40there is a possibility that he would have gone.
40:43On the other hand,
40:46Mr. Trump said he wouldn't go
40:49because Mr. Putin didn't come.
40:52If these two move in the same direction,
40:55there is a possibility that there will be a big movement.
40:58But I don't think that movement
41:01is a desirable development for Ukraine.
41:04I don't think the Russian side
41:07is going to stop the war.
41:10Even if there is a regular meeting
41:13at the level of the person in charge,
41:16it's a waste of time.
41:19I think it's a waste of time
41:22to make the Russian side better
41:25in the election.
41:28How do you get along with Mr. Trump?
41:31Do you use Mr. Trump to buy time?
41:34Sometimes I use Mr. Trump to buy time.
41:37As a result,
41:40the policy of patriotism
41:43is a concept that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump
41:46share together.
41:49I think it's a desirable development
41:52for Mr. Putin
41:55to create this final result
41:58I think it's a matter of how serious
42:01Europe is in predicting the future.
42:04This is the reaction of Europe
42:07after receiving reports of direct negotiations
42:10between Russia and Ukraine.
42:13German Chancellor Merz said
42:16that in order to end the Ukrainian war,
42:19we need to cooperate with the United States
42:22and make every effort
42:25to make sure that Mr. Putin
42:28is not serious about peace.
42:31The European Union's Fondé Alliance
42:34is working on a new sanction
42:37to increase pressure on Mr. Putin
42:40because he does not want peace.
42:43French President Macron said
42:46that if Russia continues to refuse a ceasefire,
42:49European countries are adjusting
42:52Let's take a look at the content of the sanction.
43:22President Zelensky said
43:25that Russia will face a new additional sanction
43:28in the energy and banking sector.
43:31President Zelensky said that Russia will face
43:34a new additional sanction in the energy and banking sector.
43:37President Zelensky also said
43:40that the European movement
43:43from Ukraine is changing.
43:46On the 10th,
43:49President Zelensky and I visited Kiev
43:52and told Russia to take a non-conditional ceasefire
43:55from the 12th.
43:58At that time, I called Trump
44:01and told him that if Russia does not take a non-conditional ceasefire,
44:04we will impose sanctions.
44:07I think he was adjusting,
44:10but Putin said,
44:13let's meet on the 15th.
44:16I think President Trump was regretting
44:19that if Russia and Putin do not meet,
44:22Putin will become annoying
44:25and it was difficult to arrange a temporary ceasefire.
44:28Importantly, the destabilization of Europe
44:31began on a trendy topic,
44:34so the subject wasimes.
44:37The President of five countries
44:42called Trump immediately afterwards
44:45I don't know if it's going to happen or not, and that's Trump's inescapable response.
44:53He's trying to avoid putting pressure on Russia by saying,
44:57if you talk to Putin, it'll work out.
45:01Zelensky is trying to convince Trump that if Russia doesn't come to a ceasefire,
45:07he has to put pressure on Russia.
45:10I think that's the goal of the Ukraine side right now.
45:15Germany seems to be very active in supporting Russia in place of the Merkel administration.
45:23From Ukraine's point of view,
45:26is it possible to see the seriousness of Europe?
45:33I think it's possible.
45:35I think it's possible for Germany to send troops from Europe after the ceasefire.
45:42As for the long-range missile Taurus,
45:45Merkel made an official statement before she became prime minister.
45:50She doesn't say much now, but she'll probably make a statement.
45:55From that point of view,
45:57it is seen in Ukraine that the new administration is more active than the previous one.
46:04Mr. Karame, what do you think of Europe?
46:07Even if Trump doesn't come to a ceasefire,
46:10even if he gets off the military support,
46:13are you prepared to do it yourself?
46:16I think so.
46:18We have to do that.
46:20It's Europe that's sitting on its back.
46:23That's why we're working so hard to get between Zelensky and Trump.
46:30It's Europe that's sitting on its back.
46:33What makes Europe strong is China.
46:37Russia now relies heavily on China for its economy.
46:42China is now in a trade war with the US,
46:45so it has to take care of Europe.
46:48I think it's important to recognize the power of Europe.
46:53Ms. Hiroshi, what do you think?
46:55The ceasefire is a very important point.
46:58Europe is under a lot of sanctions,
47:01but there are still a lot of countries that are buying LNG.
47:05If they stop buying LNG, there will be a big blow.
47:10There are still a lot of opportunities for sanctions against Russia.
47:15There is also a lot of discussion about a secondary sanction.
47:19It's a sanction against a country that trades with Russia.
47:22By putting pressure on Russia,
47:26it's a very important issue,
47:29but it's not going well.
47:32I think that's one of the benefits of buying time for Russia.
47:37That's all for today.
47:39After the commercial break, we have market information.
47:56The Nasdaq, which has a high ratio of high-tech stocks,
47:59rose by 98 points to $19,211.
48:03The end of the New York foreign exchange market
48:06was $1.145 from $1.65 to $1.75 the day before.
48:11The daily average in Chicago is $37,995.
48:16It's about $240 higher than the daily average on Friday.
48:21I asked the market officials about the stock price at the end of June.
48:25Kinouchi of Daiba Shoken expects it to be $45,000.
48:29It is expected to be surprisingly high,
48:32with the possibility that the congress will rebuy
48:35due to the improvement in mind data and AI business.
48:38Joseph Kraft of Seisaku Keizai Analyst expects it to be $36,000.
48:42The stock price in the United States is recovering to the level
48:45before the announcement of mutual liability,
48:48but Seisaku Keizai is expected to be at risk
48:51due to unresolved issues such as unresolved unilateral negotiations,
48:54the heat of the Middle East conflict,
48:57the shift in Takahashi's financial policy,
49:00and the U.S. financial crisis.
49:03Next week.
49:05Mr. Watanabe, what are you looking forward to?
49:08The AEU summit on Monday, the 19th.
49:13As I mentioned earlier,
49:16the EU and the U.K. have been working together
49:19for a long time.
49:22One of their common goals is
49:25to negotiate with the U.S.
49:28The U.K. has managed to do so,
49:31but the EU remains.
49:34This is a good opportunity to talk about this.
49:37There is also the influence of China,
49:40so I think this is a very important movement in the world.
49:43Thank you very much, everyone.