Sama-sama nating himayin ang naging resulta ng #Eleksyon2025!
Bakit kaya ang ilang kandidatong pasok sa survey, hindi pasok sa partial at unofficial results ng botohan? Alamin sa video na ito.
Hosted by the country’s top anchors and hosts, 'Unang Hirit' is a weekday morning show that provides its viewers with a daily dose of news and practical feature stories. Watch it from Monday to Friday, 5:30 AM on GMA Network! Subscribe to youtube.com/gmapublicaffairs for our full episodes.
Bakit kaya ang ilang kandidatong pasok sa survey, hindi pasok sa partial at unofficial results ng botohan? Alamin sa video na ito.
Hosted by the country’s top anchors and hosts, 'Unang Hirit' is a weekday morning show that provides its viewers with a daily dose of news and practical feature stories. Watch it from Monday to Friday, 5:30 AM on GMA Network! Subscribe to youtube.com/gmapublicaffairs for our full episodes.
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00:00Salamat, Igan! Patuloy natin tututukan ang resulta ng election 2025.
00:06Samotsari po ang naging reaksyon ng bayan sa partial and unofficial result ng senatorial race.
00:12May mga inaasahan mga pasok sa Magic 12.
00:16Yung iba naman pasok sa mga lumabas sa survey, pero sa mga nakikita nating resulta, malayo sa ngayon ang pwesto.
00:24Yan ang himayin natin dito sa Issue ng Bayan.
00:30At sa ating talakayan ngayong umaga, makakasama po natin, Dr. Guido David ng Okta Research.
00:38Dr. David, thank you. Welcome sa unang hirit. Welcome sa ating studio.
00:44Dr. David, gaya nga ng nabanggit namin, iba-iba yung naging reaksyon ng mga kababayan natin.
00:49May mga expected na kasing papasok sa Magic 12, pero may ilan ding pasok sa survey, pero malayo yung pwesto sa base sa results na nakikita natin.
00:58Anong nangyari, Prof?
01:01And actually, some of the points have been raised by some of our colleagues.
01:09One common point na sinasabi nila is, well, yung surveys naman is not a guarantee or it's not predictive.
01:16It's just a snapshot. At the time, kung kailan kinanduct yung survey.
01:22And usually, yung mga surveys, they take time. So, mga three to four weeks processing yan.
01:28So, yung, for example, the Okta Research survey, it was conducted April 20 to 24.
01:32So, medyo, you know, sometime has passed. And may mga developments na mga nangyayari na hindi na maka-capture ng last survey.
01:42So, mga new developments, mga endorsements. And yung mga voters, according to our own data, up to 20% decide on the day of the election.
01:55So, ibig sabihin, between the time na natanong sila, nang nagsasurvey, until the time na bumoto sila, they actually cast their vote, nag-iba na. Nag-iba na ang desisyon nila.
02:05Nag-iba na yung desisyon. May mga endorsements. May mga sample ballots, which are huge.
02:10O baka mas nabombard siya ng ad nitong kandidato na to. Mas na-convince siya. So, that led to this voter actually casting the vote for that candidate.
02:18On the flip side, may mga candidates na hindi masyadong nag-de-in noong last few weeks leading up to the elections.
02:28So, parang medyo nawala sila sa top of mind. And I'll even point that out.
02:34But before we do that, Professor, para mas maunawaan ang mga kapuso natin, pwede nyo bang bigyan kami ng brief description?
02:40Paano ba ang proseso ng pagsasagawa ng survey ninyo?
02:43Yeah, briefly, yung surveys namin ay face-to-face siya. And that's why pag may nagtatanong, bakit 1,200 lang yung respondents?
02:54Because pag well-sampled siya, we choose randomly yung mga ma-interview in the whole country. So, lahat pwede ma-interview.
03:04O, yun nga. Ang tanong pa, paano nyo pinipili yung 1,200 na yun, yung sampling na yun?
03:09Yeah, may mga, kunyari, usually nakadivide na siya into regional numbers. So, kunyari, sa Metro Manila, 300.
03:17So, kunyari lang, sa Metro Manila, 300. So, randomly pipili tayo ng 300 respondents sa Metro Manila.
03:25Pupunta sa mga subdivisions and then we conduct face-to-face interviews.
03:29In short, may science sa pagpilihan sa ating sampling.
03:34Prof, ano yung nakikita ninyong trend na naiba this election compared to the past elections?
03:40Well, marami actually trends. And nag-reflect yan sa outcome na nakita natin.
03:50And just to clarify, kung yung lumabas na outcome sa elections, ay kamukhang kamukha na surveys, parang wala na thrill, di ba?
04:01Parang, wala na, excitement. Parang, ay, nakita na natin.
04:04Parang naging crystal ball tuloy yung survey.
04:05Parang naging crystal ball, which is actually what we don't like.
04:08Kasi, some people even say na, ay, mind conditioning yan.
04:12Now, we know it's not.
04:13Yes.
04:13Because it can change pa.
04:15Plus, kung yung sinabi ng survey, ganito, ikaw ay isang kandidato na wala dun sa winning circle,
04:25does that mean you should lose hope?
04:27Di ba? Hindi naman maganda yun, ah.
04:29Ay, suko na ako.
04:30Or yung mga, ano.
04:31And even, yung mga voters, we enjoy them na, porque mababa yung kandidato na gusto nyo.
04:39Huwag kayong pumili ng, yung mata sa ranking, di ba?
04:44Pumili kayo kung ano yung sa tingin nyo nasa puso nyo.
04:48And I think it happened din.
04:50So, isa yun sa mga trends.
04:51Parang, ah, mas naging cognizant or aware na yung mga, ano, yung mga voters about certain issues.
04:59Kasi may nakita tatin, tayo.
05:01I mean, we've been bombarded with, you know, talks about political dynasties.
05:06Yes.
05:06And about yung mga qualifications.
05:09So, parang yun natira sa, ah, ah, election, ah, you know, yung mga winners.
05:16I would say most of them are, you know, have the qualifications and the credentials.
05:23Prof, isa sa mga ikinagulat natin sa resulta, ito yung pinakamatingkad na example sa parang,
05:29the unpredictability of elections.
05:32Yung pagiging number two ni Bam Aquino.
05:34Yan.
05:35Pag-usapan natin yan.
05:35Dahil iba sa mga resulta ng survey, eh.
05:39Up until the last survey, which is a week before elections ng SWS,
05:43pangalanan ko na, number 12.
05:45Or baka halos hindi pa siya makapasok sa Magic 12.
05:48Anong analysis niyo ito?
05:50Right.
05:50And in fact, doon sa top 12, kasi maraming nagsasabing ibang-iba.
05:54So, may three names na wala sa top 12 sa survey namin na pumasok.
05:59So, may tatlong nalaglag.
06:02So, kumbaga yung score namin, kung titignan lang natin kung ilan nakapasok,
06:05nine out of 12, parang 75%.
06:07It's not so bad, di ba?
06:10Secondly, yung mga lahat na nakapasok within the top 18,
06:15and even yung pinakamababang nakapasok sa survey namin, si Kiko Pangilinan,
06:21he was ranked, kasi may range yun eh, dahil may margin of error.
06:24Kasi hindi naman precise yung surveys.
06:26Hindi naman 100% accurate yan.
06:28So, yung margin of error is 3%.
06:30So, he was ranking 11 to 21.
06:33So, doon sa range, pasok siya actually.
06:36So, kung titignan natin kung sino yung mga nasa range, lahat sila ay within the range.
06:40Walang nakapasok na outside of that range.
06:43And yung kay, ano?
06:44Bamakino.
06:44Yeah, go ahead please.
06:45Baka may, ano bang demonstration natin dito?
06:48Firstly, I want to point out, 20 million yung bumoto kay Bamakino out of 56 million so far.
06:58Pag i-compute natin yun, that's about 37%.
07:01Yung sa survey namin, kung ko-compare natin sa datos, 32% sa number 12.
07:08So, matas siya ng konti, kaysa sa, I mean, hindi naman konti.
07:13That's 5% increase compared to the survey.
07:17So, he actually over-performed compared to the survey.
07:22And yung over-performance niya, very evident in these areas.
07:28Plus these.
07:29Ito, makikita natin, dark red.
07:30Ito, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Metro Manila.
07:36Anong performance niya ni Bamakino?
07:39Number one in these areas.
07:42Nag-number one siya dito.
07:42Calabarzon, isa sa mga vote-rich siya.
07:45Very, these are vote-rich areas.
07:49If I'm not mistaken, number one din siya sa Bicol region.
07:53And sa Mimaropa region, I'm not sure kung number one.
07:59I have to check, wala detail.
08:01But these are areas where he got a lot of votes, plus Western Visayas.
08:07Pero makikita natin, even outside of these areas, sa Ilocos region, dito sa Cagayan Valley, sa Ilocos region, you still got a decent mga 25 to 30.
08:21Even yung mga sinasabing bailiwicks, for example, yan, Ilocos region, bailiwick ng mga Marcos, yes.
08:27And then, yung Visayas, bailiwick ng mga Duterte, or yung Mindanao.
08:32So, all of those regions, nakakuha ng significant votes si Bam Aquino.
08:37Right.
08:37Not so much sa Mindanao, but he got enough to add to his total.
08:41Even, for example, Central Visayas here.
08:46So, would you say, nag-play into his surge, yung solid north, yung black voting, prof?
08:57Yeah, these all help, plus yung mga endorsements, I think this added.
09:01I mean, huge na, dito sa pinaka-vote-rich areas, he got number one.
09:08I mean, higher than, for example, si Senator Bongo.
09:12Yes, may next slide pa tayo, prof.
09:15What can we show dito pa sa naging performance?
09:18Ito, dito naman, sa number one natin, sa senatorial race, si Bongo.
09:23He got, wow, 26.4 million.
09:27Actually, if you look at it, it looks like a very big number, 26 million.
09:32Pero, out of 56 million, that's about, I think, 46%.
09:38So, although, nag-top siya, but that's actually a bit lower dun sa mga survey results na, you know,
09:44nag-range siya ng mga 50%.
09:46So, it's a bit lower.
09:47Hindi naman na disappointment.
09:50Hindi siya nag, kung si Bam Aquino nag-over-perform, nag-under-perform slightly si Bongo.
09:56Slightly under-perform, not to take anything away from the senator.
09:59Yes, but still enough to get him to the top spot.
10:02And with a big lead of 6 million votes.
10:05Yun, prof, bakit ang layo ng number one at number two?
10:09Go and Aquino malayo yung mga votes nila.
10:11And this is what I wanted to point out, Kadeo.
10:14Why the results are also different from the survey.
10:17Si Bam Aquino nag-over-perform, si Kikao Pangilinan slightly over-perform.
10:24Most of the other candidates nag-under-perform.
10:27Okay.
10:27Because if we look at, Mamiya, titignan natin.
10:31But first, dissect natin kay Senator Bongo.
10:37Across the areas, obviously.
10:39Mindanao, yan ang baluarti niya.
10:42Yeah, they're getting very high voting dito.
10:45I think top yata si Senator Bongo dito.
10:48And even Visayas, you know.
10:50But you can see that even up to the Central Luzon,
10:55I think he's mga figures in the top five.
10:59Kung number one si Bam Aquino.
11:01Next candidate na pwede natin pag-usapan.
11:03Ayan, si Senator Bato.
11:05Si Senator Bato, you know, he got 20 million.
11:09He's 37%.
11:10He's actually slightly under-perform pa nga eh.
11:13Compared to his survey numbers.
11:16But mostly...
11:18Of course, ito expected dyan.
11:20Expected, actually.
11:21So, nothing unusual there.
11:25Nothing unusual.
11:26Some votes the rest of the country.
11:30But yeah.
11:31And kung titignan natin,
11:33well, 56 million votes in
11:36out of 69,773 registered voters
11:41with 97.36% processed.
11:46Pag i-kompleto natin yan,
11:48maging 100%,
11:49that will total to 57.6 million votes
11:53out of 69.
11:54So, ang voter turnout natin,
11:56roughly mga, I think, 82.5%.
11:59And then our last slide.
12:02Yeah.
12:02So, this is the...
12:03These are the numbers.
12:05If you look at
12:05Senator Aimee Marcos,
12:08she got 13 million.
12:09Out of 56 million,
12:11ang turnout niya
12:12is 23%
12:14ang bumoto sa kanya.
12:15And that is...
12:16Well, actually,
12:17that's not so far from
12:19yung survey numbers niya.
12:21But she's slightly under-performed.
12:22But those below here,
12:23na hindi natin nakikita,
12:25like si na...
12:25A quick word,
12:26Prof, ano?
12:27Yan,
12:27yung mga hindi na natin nakikita
12:28na laglag.
12:30Bentulfo,
12:31Abby Binay,
12:32and Ramon Revilla
12:33na consistently
12:34nasa surveys
12:35before elections.
12:37Ano ho kaya nangyari dyan?
12:39Yeah.
12:39So, sila,
12:40they got mga 11 million votes
12:42out of 56 million.
12:43That's only about 20%.
12:45Ang survey numbers nila
12:47nasa mga 30%.
12:48So, a big underperformance.
12:51So, 10% yung binaba.
12:53Some of them
12:54may have been due to,
12:56parang kulang sa visibility
12:58in the last weeks
13:00prior to that.
13:01But, you know,
13:02I was seeing ads nila,
13:04Abby Binay.
13:04Yes.
13:05And nila,
13:07buong revilla,
13:07may mga nakikita pa tayong ads.
13:09But,
13:10I think,
13:10less visibility
13:11and maybe hindi
13:13nasa top of mind
13:15ng voters.
13:16So, maybe that's why.
13:17Ito, Prof,
13:19finally,
13:20basi po sa
13:21Comelec Media Server,
13:22more than 99% na yung
13:23naprosesong election returns.
13:26Is it
13:27safe to call it
13:29na
13:29hindi na magbabago
13:30itong Magic 12?
13:31Wala kasing number 13 dito.
13:33So, we can't see it.
13:34Anyway,
13:35maybe fina-flash tayo
13:36sa ating mga screen na yun,
13:37yung mga
13:38mababago pa ba
13:40yung Magic 12 natin?
13:41The lead between
13:42Senator Aimee
13:43and Ben Tufo
13:44was around
13:441.2 million,
13:46I think.
13:47And yung natitirang votes
13:48is mga nuts
13:49ng 1.6 million.
13:52I think it's
13:53a statistical
13:54improbability.
13:56At this time,
13:56so,
13:57I think itong
13:58Magic 12 na
13:59buo na,
14:01baka may mag-flip pa
14:03doon sa mga
14:03medyo dikit yung
14:05numbers.
14:06Ayan, Prof,
14:06nakikita natin
14:07sa screen natin ngayon,
14:09yung 11 to 15,
14:10mukhang safe na
14:11si Senator Aimee.
14:13Yes,
14:13because
14:14from
14:1412
14:16to 13,
14:17yes,
14:1813 million
14:19versus
14:1911.8 million,
14:21that's around
14:221.2 million
14:23votes,
14:24more or less.
14:25These are
14:25mga natitirang votes.
14:26Although,
14:27yung mostly
14:28natitira,
14:28if we look at
14:29this heat map,
14:33yung karami
14:33ng hindi pa
14:34nasama
14:34na bilang
14:35is around
14:36here,
14:36in Mindanao
14:37era,
14:38I think,
14:39around
14:39Barham region.
14:40Unlikely naman
14:40na makuha lang
14:41ng isang kandidato
14:42yun.
14:42I mean,
14:43all of it.
14:43Yes,
14:43all of it.
14:44Tapos yung kalaban
14:45niya walang nakuha.
14:46Tapos yung isa
14:47100% voting.
14:48So,
14:48especially
14:49given the profiles
14:50of the candidates
14:51na nasa mga
14:5213,
14:5314,
14:5315.
14:53Anyway,
14:54ang pinag-uusapan
14:54po natin dito
14:55is statistical
14:56probability
14:57where we're not
14:58favoring a particular
14:59candidate or whatever.
15:00Prof,
15:01thank you very much
15:01for the explanation.
15:03Sana po
15:03naliwanagan kayo
15:04mga kapuso
15:05sa naging
15:06turnout
15:07ng mga resulta
15:08sa ating
15:08senatorial race.
15:10Babalik po
15:10ko ng hirin.
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15:31Salamat kapuso!