Kementerian Perdagangan menargetkan pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia di sepanjang tahun 2025 sebesar 7,1% dibandingkan 2024 lalu. Target ekspor tersebut setara dengan USD294 miliar atau Rp4.851 triliun. Langkah ini juga menjadi bagian dari upaya Kementerian Perdagangan dalam menopang target pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional 8% hingga 2029.
Menteri Perdagangan Budi Santoso seperti dikutip media mengatakan, Pemerintah akan memacu ekspor ke sejumlah negara seperti China, Amerika Serikat, Jepang, India dan Malaysia. Selain itu, Pemerintah juga akan mendorong sektor Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM) untuk meningkatkan ekspor. Dimana Kemendag menargetkan pada 2025, total ekspor UMKM Indonesia bisa mencapai USD19,33 miliar atau tumbuh 9,63% secara tahunan. Jumlah ekspor UMKM tersebut diharapkan dapat terus tumbuh hingga mencapai USD35,29 miliar pada 2029 mendatang.
Menteri Perdagangan Budi Santoso seperti dikutip media mengatakan, Pemerintah akan memacu ekspor ke sejumlah negara seperti China, Amerika Serikat, Jepang, India dan Malaysia. Selain itu, Pemerintah juga akan mendorong sektor Usaha Mikro Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM) untuk meningkatkan ekspor. Dimana Kemendag menargetkan pada 2025, total ekspor UMKM Indonesia bisa mencapai USD19,33 miliar atau tumbuh 9,63% secara tahunan. Jumlah ekspor UMKM tersebut diharapkan dapat terus tumbuh hingga mencapai USD35,29 miliar pada 2029 mendatang.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's economy is on the verge of collapse
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Live from IDX Studio Jakarta, I'm Prasetya Wibowo
00:25Welcome back to Market Review, a program that discusses economic issues in Indonesia
00:30You can watch our live streaming at idx.com
00:33Let's start the Market Review
00:36Market Review
01:07The government in this regard, the Ministry of Trade, targets Indonesia's export growth throughout 2025
01:14as large as 7.1% compared to 2024
01:18The export target is equivalent to US$ 294 billion or Rp 4,851 trillion
01:26This step is also part of the Ministry of Trade's efforts to support the target of 8% national economic growth
01:35The Minister of Trade, Budi Santoso, as quoted in the media, said
01:38the government will advance exports to a number of countries such as China, the United States, Japan, India, and Malaysia
01:45In addition, the government will also push the micro, small and medium enterprises sector or MSMEs to increase exports
01:52Where the Ministry of Trade targets in 2025, the total export of Indonesian MSMEs can reach US$ 19.33 billion or grow by 9.63% annually
02:03The number of MSME exports is expected to continue to grow to US$ 35.29 billion in 2029
02:12Meanwhile, the Statistics Center notes that Indonesia's export value in February 2025 reached US$ 21.98 billion
02:20up 2.58% compared to January 2025 as large as US$ 21.43 billion
02:28Even national MSME exports in February 2025 grew by 14.05% to US$ 21.98 billion
02:38compared to February 2024, which was US$ 19.27 billion
02:43From Jakarta, Aedek Channel
03:14Meanwhile, annually, compared to February 2024, there was an increase of up to 14.05%
03:22And next, we will take a look at the energy surplus trading pattern that has been happening in recent times
03:30From October 2024, there was an increase of US$ 2.48 billion
03:35Then in November 2024, there was an increase of US$ 4.42 billion
03:40Then in February 2025, there was an increase of US$ 3.12 billion
03:47Thank you
03:52Okay, Mr. Mirsa, to discuss our topic related to the strategy to chase the export of US$ 4,851 trillion throughout 2025
04:01We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Beni Sutrisno, General Chairman of the Indonesian Export Company Association
04:07Hello, Mr. Beni, how are you?
04:09Okay, Alhamdulillah, Mas
04:11Okay, thank you Mr. Beni for your time
04:14Next, we have Mr. Agus Santoso, Senior Economist of Bank Mandiri
04:17Hello, Mr. Agus, how are you?
04:19Hello, Alhamdulillah, I'm fine
04:21Okay, thank you for your time
04:23Let's start with Mr. Beni's first review
04:27How do you see Indonesia's export performance throughout Q1, if I may say, in 2025, Mr. Beni?
04:36For Q1, it's definitely better than Q1 year-on-year
04:44Because the situation is that the US's consumption has started to increase
04:53Maybe the interest has started to go down a little bit, the inflation has also started to go down
04:58But now in the US, in a little while, on April 2nd, Trump will impose new tariffs
05:06on countries that have always been surplus to the US
05:10We are one of the 14 countries that have surplus
05:16So maybe now the US will use the largest surplus, such as Canada or Mexico
05:23Of course, Latin America has also managed to hit Venezuela
05:27Coincidentally, we have a business with Venezuela, especially for wood
05:31So the wood or its descendants, the furniture, Indonesia will experience construction this year
05:38Last year, the price went up, so maybe this year we have to be careful
05:43Now, what can the government do to promote trade to the US?
05:49If you look at it, Trump is not alone
05:53Trump is accompanied by Elon Musk, who is a little bit brutal
05:58He doesn't care about the WTO
06:02Okay, Mr. Benny, those are the real conditions that are being faced by industrialists, especially Indonesian exporters
06:08Well, it's good, from your perspective, what do you see with the current economic conditions?
06:12Then with the export conditions, although it has been said earlier
06:15In order, in February, it will double digit
06:21In line with what Mr. Benny said earlier
06:26Our view on exports in the first quarter of this year can still grow positively
06:31Although if we look at the challenges, both from global and domestic, it is still quite high
06:38However, we do see that some of the main export commodities in Indonesia still show a fairly stable performance
06:46If we look at some commodities related to exports
06:51For example, CPO, if we look at it in terms of volume, it is still quite stable
06:55The demand from the global market is still quite high
06:58Then we also see from the demand in February yesterday, it also experienced an increase
07:05If we look at the historical pattern, there is indeed a seasonal pattern
07:10Before Eid or Ramadan, there is a significant increase in demand for CPO exports
07:22Well, these are some things that also push our CPO exports to increase
07:29Especially in terms of demand and price, the outlook is also quite stable
07:37This year, there is indeed an indication that the normalization of commodity prices continues
07:43But some commodities, if we look at it, such as CPO, the price is still quite stable
07:50Then if we look at some other commodities, such as coal, then iron and tin
07:58In our opinion, it is still quite stable, although the tendency is slightly down compared to previous years
08:07However, if we look at the volume, the sale of coal is still quite high
08:13If we look at it, the price is still normalizing, so there is still a tendency to decrease in terms of price
08:22In terms of volume, overall it is still quite stable at the beginning of this year
08:27Well, that's it from some of Indonesia's leading exporters
08:31Mr. Benny, BPS recorded an export value in February of 2021 of USD21.98 billion, an increase of 2.58% compared to January
08:40Well, is this still according to the target of the export itself, or how is it, Mr. Benny?
08:48Yes, our target is that there is an explosive number that we want to break through
08:53That is, the annual export must exceed USD300 billion
08:58Which until today has not yet reached, almost reached, but has not yet broken the USD300 billion
09:09Including in terms of years, was it 14% like that, Mr. Benny?
09:15Yes, that's right. We want it, because our neighboring countries, like Vietnam, are already more
09:23Thailand, Malaysia, they are already breaking, including Singapore, has exceeded USD300 billion
09:30We have a lot of commodities, and this area, the land, the water, but still not yet
09:38Okay, okay. Well, related to the ministry or the government itself, when setting the export growth target this year
09:44The increase is indeed 7.1%, with a value of USD294 billion or around 4.8 trillion
09:51Well, according to you, this target is still quite realistic with some of the challenges that you have mentioned earlier, right, Mr. Benny?
09:59Still, we also, GPI, help the Ministry of Trade, namely the UKM program that can export
10:07We do it continuously and structurally in East Java
10:14Both the education and we facilitate to purchase goods and matchmaking with buyers
10:24Okay. Well, Mr. Agus, the factor that makes Indonesia's export growth quite positive like that
10:29In terms of years, it was 14%, 2.58% in terms of months, like that, what do you see that is the trigger?
10:36Is it again pushed by our export-reliant commodities that still have a good market share, or is there something else, Mr. Agus?
10:46Well, if we look from the commodity side, it was February last year, this is quite surprising for us
10:53Because indeed, from the majority of the economy, it is possible to estimate the month-on-month export in February last year was a bit down
11:03But it turns out that the realization is far above the estimate of the majority of the economy
11:08Well, if we look from the commodity side, commodities such as CPOs, then maybe vehicles related to vehicle components
11:20The demand is still quite strong, this is the driving factor why exports in February grew quite fast
11:30If we look at it, I said earlier that the CPO follows the seasonal pattern
11:35So before Ramadan, February and Eid, the demand from some of our main partners such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh experienced an increase
11:48In addition, we also see that our PMI manufacturing activities are still quite optimistic
11:55Right now, we are still in the expansion phase, above 50 points, and I think this also supports our export activities to continue to grow positively
12:06Okay, so how about the government's target of 7.1%, the target of 4.8 trillion?
12:13We will discuss this in the next segment, Mr. Agus and Mr. Benny
12:16We will be back in a moment
12:17Stay tuned with us
12:26Thank you for staying tuned with us in Market Review, Mr. Mirsa
12:31In the next segment, we will be sharing data for you related to non-MEGAS export activity which is an advantage for Indonesia
12:40The data for February 2025, we will discuss the movement in terms of months and years
12:48As mentioned by Mr. Agus, steel and iron, if we look at the month, it is still negative, 6.02%
12:55Meanwhile, the annual growth is 19.52% in February
13:00Meanwhile, for the coal community, they are both under pressure for their exports
13:06Minus 3.79% per month, then 19.79% per year for coal
13:15Meanwhile, for the CPO, they are both at 58.35% per month and 89.54% per year
13:24Next, we will look at Indonesia's non-MEGAS export target
13:29China is still at US$4.29 billion, then US$2.35 billion
13:37India is at US$1.65 billion
13:42Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Benny Sutrisno, General Director of GPEI
13:46Mr. Agus Santoso, Senior Economist at Bang Mandiri
13:50Based on the data that has been shared, what can we say about the 7.1% target in 2025
13:59Do you think it is still achievable?
14:02Or is it just the CPO that is still the main supporter with significant growth?
14:12If we talk about the 7.1% target this year
14:16It is possible to achieve it, our exports can grow above 5%
14:24However, if we look at it, the challenges are quite big
14:28So, the challenges that will be faced this year are getting bigger
14:32Especially from a global perspective
14:34So, we see that in the midst of various global shocks
14:38First, the price moderation of commodities is still ongoing
14:43Especially in some of our main commodities
14:46Such as coal, then iron and tin are also still moderate in terms of price
14:52This is the challenge for the future
14:54But in terms of demand, we estimate that the global demand is still quite maintained
15:01Especially in some of our commodities that are still quite optimistic
15:06Such as the CPO commodities, then the iron component is still quite optimistic outlook this year
15:15So, if we talk about the target
15:18In our calculation, the growth of exports this year is likely to grow positively at around 2-4%
15:28So, there is a potential to grow above 5%
15:32But we see various challenges that are faced this year
15:36As a factor that may be a barrier for us to grow above 5%
15:42Wow, 7.1% is quite difficult, full of challenges, that's good
15:47Yes, I think for us to grow above 5%, we need to put in more effort
15:52As Mr. Benny said earlier, some programs need to be pushed harder
15:57Especially when we talk about moving export activities forward
16:04This is important, in my opinion, we need to push harder
16:09Activities such as MSMEs, then there are some programs such as DeVisa
16:15These also need to be pushed to increase our overall exports to be able to grow above 5%
16:23Because if we look at it now, Indonesia's exports are still dominated by some commodities
16:29Especially in mining commodities, which may be the outlook this year is not as good as the previous years
16:38Because there are so many challenges
16:40So, this is a challenge for us to be able to push export activities forward
16:46As I said earlier, we need to push agriculture, then fishing
16:52Those can be one of the commodities to push exports this year
16:57Then MSMEs as well, so we need to put in more effort
17:01Okay, Mr. Benny, what do you think of the analysis that was given to Mr. Agus?
17:07It looks like the geopolitics and global economy is still tricky in 2025
17:14As you can see, 5% is quite heavy, while the target is only 7.1%
17:22Yes, I agree with Mr. Agus
17:24Indeed, this global tension causes problems in logistics
17:30So, in Sweden, the activity dropped by 50%
17:36In Panama, the activity dropped by 32%
17:39This means that goods to the US and the East Coast are starting to decrease
17:45This is because of the global tension that has been imposed by several countries
17:53But if we want to reach 7%
17:56From entrepreneurs, there is only one credo
17:59Do or die
18:00If you don't do it, you will definitely die
18:02If you do it, maybe you can not die
18:05So, whether we want it or not, we have to do it
18:09And we never remember that the WTO has ever been rich from our spices
18:17Our spices today are not yet
18:20Imagine, the spices that are still raw or the decline of the industry
18:26There are so many, and some countries, not all countries have our spices
18:33This is what friends in the WTO can do
18:37Because the volume is not much, but the volume is rare
18:41For example, all the fragrant oils in the world are made from Indonesian palm oil
18:48Don't forget that
18:49We just have to adapt
18:51Mr. Agus, we have to do some activities
18:55Not only about the trade, but also about the product
18:59I think the development will also look like that
19:02Okay, Mr. Agus said it needs extra effort, extraordinary
19:07If we talk about efforts to reach the target of Indonesia's export growth
19:12Is this a strategy that will be done by exporters?
19:16What do you think, Mr. Benny?
19:18Yes, there are a few things
19:20For example, Singapore
19:23Singapore's infrastructure or ecosystem trade is almost perfect
19:31We have to cooperate with them to sell to the whole world
19:35Because Singapore doesn't have many restrictions to enter the countries that we want
19:47For example, from the passport, Singapore doesn't need a visa to enter any country
19:54Actually, we still have that problem
19:57In my experience of marketing products to Latin America
20:03I mean to Chile
20:05Why?
20:06Because Chile doesn't have a visa for Indonesian passports
20:10This is one of the tools that we have to convey to Kemenlu
20:16To negotiate politically about the ban or entry to that country
20:26Okay, and the government will also stimulate the export synergy to five countries
20:30There are China, the United States, Japan, India, and Malaysia
20:34Then the World Trade Organization will also continue to be encouraged
20:37We will discuss more in the next segment
20:39Mr. Benny, Mr. Agus, we will be back in a moment
20:41And Mr. Mirsa, we will be back soon after the next conversation
20:46Market Review
20:52You are still watching Market Review
20:54And we will continue our conversation with Mr. Benny Sutrisno and Mr. Agus Santo
20:59Okay, let's talk about the government's efforts to stimulate the export synergy to five countries
21:05Mr. Benny, do you see that the potential is still quite open or not?
21:08China, the United States, Japan, India, and Malaysia
21:13Mr. Benny
21:15Except for the United States, I think it's just fair
21:18Logistically, there is no problem
21:21Because it has to go through Switzerland or Panama Channel
21:27But if it's the United States, I'm still doubtful
21:32Secondly, the government is negotiating the EU-SEPA
21:38It should be completed this year
21:42If it's done, then our export potential to Europe will increase
21:47This is what I hope, especially for high-end products
21:53Such as shoes, furniture, and textiles
21:57It will increase because it will be like Vietnam
22:02Vietnam's tariff to Europe is zero
22:05We still use a 6-7% tariff
22:08I hope the EU-SEPA will be completed
22:11Then the potential will increase in Europe
22:14Okay, Mr. Agus, how do you see the position and role of the government?
22:19As Mr. Benny said earlier
22:21Maybe in bilateral cooperation or joining other world economic organizations
22:26So that it can provide a convenient entrance for Indonesian exporters
22:32To import Indonesian products abroad
22:36If we talk about problems related to exports
22:43If we observe in Indonesia
22:46First, if we talk about structural obstacles
22:50Maybe a few years ago, in the last decade
22:55Indonesia was still segmented to natural resources commodities
23:00Especially coal, CPO, coal, coal, CPO, and steel
23:06This is actually a challenge
23:09If we talk about the challenges first
23:13Why?
23:14Because the commodities are very low in price volatility
23:20Meanwhile, we are also trying to push the export of medium and high-tech products
23:27Which in our opinion still needs to be pushed even harder
23:32From a fundamental point of view, we also see that
23:36Our export segmentation is still limited to several major markets
23:41In Asia, if we can say
23:44We are still a majority dependent on China, China
23:48Then India
23:50So we need to expand the export market
23:54As Mr. Benny said earlier
23:56One of the efforts that needs to be pushed by the government
24:01Is cooperation with trade
24:03So we have done several initiatives
24:08Indonesia, Canada
24:09Then a few other things
24:11I think this is very supportive
24:15Several government programs
24:17As I said earlier
24:19The target of DeVisa village is to be expanded
24:22Then on the other hand, there is strengthening
24:25I think coordination between stakeholders
24:29Between the government, Bank Indonesia
24:32Then from the tax office
24:34And various other institutions
24:36It also supports the increase in the capacity of farmers, fishermen, MSMEs
24:41To be able to pass the export
24:42This is a positive thing
24:44This needs to be pushed even harder
24:47Because now we are no longer talking about how we can sustain the export of coal
24:53But we create new commodities
24:56Which can later become commodities
25:00The export becomes sustained
25:03It no longer depends on coal mining commodities
25:07Then from some things related to regulation
25:11This is what becomes a concern
25:14Maybe related to regulation
25:16We are very supportive of several efforts
25:19Which have actually been carried out by the government
25:22Lately, this is related to accommodative regulations
25:26The ecosystem has been created
25:29However, there are still some things that need to be improved
25:32So some things we see as a whole
25:36It's enough to support us to be one of the top exporters
25:43In the Asia region
25:45And we also see some markets
25:48Like ASEAN, if we observe the last few months
25:52Our export to ASEAN is increasing
25:56It means that our intra-trade in the ASEAN region has begun to compete with China
26:02Almost equal to China
26:04With China
26:05This is a positive thing in my opinion
26:07Because we see in the midst of domestic demand weaknesses in China
26:14Our export to the ASEAN region is increasing
26:17This is an opportunity for us to accelerate
26:22Trade cooperation to other regions in Africa
26:26Then Eastern Europe, the Middle East
26:28So we can anticipate various shocks in China
26:34Which potentially suppress our exports
26:36So we can continue to support our exports to continue to grow positively
26:41Mr. Peni, with the information that has been conveyed
26:44It seems that we have to diversify the country for export
26:47Indonesia's export products
26:49So it doesn't just depend on the community sector
26:52How about the effort to promote micro, small and medium-sized enterprises
26:57To be able to drive export
27:00Can it be synergized like that, sir?
27:03Yes, it is
27:06Digital regulation is one of the obstacles
27:11There are so many regulations
27:13Both central regulation and regional autonomy
27:17The region also has regulations
27:19So the principle is that everything is prohibited except what is allowed
27:22Okay
27:23So if there is no permission, it will not work
27:27I'll give you a little example
27:30For example, TXT
27:32Almost all of us, banks or BI say it's a sunset industry
27:37Let's imagine Vietnam
27:39Now the export of TXT is USD 50 billion
27:42In the past, in 2000, it was USD 9 billion
27:46Now it's still USD 6 billion
27:47Cambodia was still USD 3 billion
27:49Now it's USD 11 billion
27:51I always say, what do we have?
27:54It means that the ecosystem in the country must be improved
27:57Okay
27:58Because Vietnam is still up to USD 50 billion
28:01Only for TXT
28:04Samsung alone is a company
28:07Samsung is USD 40 billion
28:09So there is something wrong in the ecosystem in our country
28:14Let's review, dismantle
28:17Let's make it as an enabler for our export
28:21Okay
28:22It means that there are still many projects that must be challenged
28:25To reach our export growth target of 7.1%
28:29Or around USD 4.8 trillion
28:32I hope this can be achieved with a strong collaboration
28:35Between the government and business actors
28:37Okay
28:38Mr. Agus, Mr. Benny
28:39Thank you very much for the information and updates
28:41That have been conveyed to the audience
28:43Today, congratulations on your activities
28:45Greetings, sir
28:46See you again, Mr. Benny, Mr. Agus
28:49You're welcome
28:50Thank you, Mr. Agus
28:51You're welcome
28:52Thank you, Mr. Benny
28:55Thank you, Mr. Agus