"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Rabu (26/03/2025) dangan Tema Himbara Topang Penguatan, Optimisme Investor Kembali Tumbuh?".
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Miersa, for joining us in our discussion on the Spotlight or Headline market.
00:10We highlight some points of information from yesterday's hearing, Mr. Miersa,
00:14where the exchange rate dropped to Rp 16,590 in the middle of foreign debt payment in the second quarter.
00:22Then there is Bank Himbara as a supporter of IHSG, BBRI, a 5.2% increase.
00:28And of course, finance is the sector that leads the increase of 2.9% in the dividend agreement for the year 2025.
00:37From the Spotlight market, Mr. Miersa, we go to the economic agenda,
00:41among which there is industrial production from Singapore, export-import data based on interest payments from Thailand in February,
00:47the South Korean Manufacturing Business Survey Index.
00:50From the US, there is raw oil stock, API, US raw oil inventory.
00:58And from Europe, there is a meeting of the Central European Non-Monetary Policy Bank, a total of French employees.
01:05We switch, Mr. Miersa, to the emittance agenda.
01:09There is HIS, which will direct RUPS, PALM, SDRA, and also CCSE.
01:16An update from the Asian stock market. Is it on par with the global US and European green stock markets?
01:20We see that the green compact for Nikkei Japan rose 0.52% while Singapore 0.19%,
01:26South Korean KOSPI 0.38%, Hong Kong Hang Seng 0.68%.
01:32Mr. Miersa, HIMBARA Bank is back to support the strengthening of the price index and the 6200 joint.
01:45Does this mean that investors' trust is growing again?
01:49We will discuss this with Mr. Chandra Pasaribu, who is the Head of Research,
01:53PT Yuanta Securities Analysis Indonesia.
01:55Good morning, Mr. Chandra.
01:57Good morning, Ma'am.
01:58Thank you for your time.
02:00Good morning, Mr. Chandra.
02:01Trading is only two days away, and on Thursday and Friday, the Indonesian Stock Exchange will be closed.
02:09HIMBARA Bank is back to support the strengthening of the price index and the 6200 joint.
02:13Does this mean that investors' trust is growing again?
02:20Maybe not yet.
02:23Maybe it's the opposite.
02:27The correction to the stock market was a bit too sharp compared to the fundamentals.
02:34It's relatively oversold.
02:37But everything happened because of the confidence in various domestic issues.
02:46Fundamentally, HIMBARA Bank is still doing well even though there are growth delays.
02:54It is also shown that they also distribute dividends that are still quite attractive.
02:59The dividend yield is around 78%.
03:02Fundamentally, there is a little technical rebound in the share price.
03:09The strength in HIMBARA Bank is that the financial sector has increased by more than 2%.
03:14You see more of a technical rebound.
03:17That's right.
03:18So if we go back to the question of whether the confidence in the capital market is back,
03:25maybe some of the questions are answered by the Rupiah that is still not too strong.
03:30So there is still a delay in the Rupiah.
03:33It shows that the pressure outflow is still there, both in equity and bonds.
03:40So it means that the confidence is still in the gray area.
03:44Okay, the confidence is still in the gray area.
03:47You can see that right now, just because it's technical, it's considered to be starting to be cheap,
03:51especially for banking, which has fallen quite deep.
03:54That's right.
03:55Okay, what's interesting is the BCA, which is usually more stable.
04:01Yesterday, it fell quite deep, approaching the level of stock split.
04:04What do you think is the cause?
04:07Actually, back to the question of confidence.
04:10Because the BCA is relatively, if we look at it from the fundamental side,
04:14the most solid bank.
04:17So we look at the numbers, the reputation of this bank,
04:22maybe in the last 20 years since the crisis, it also has a very good reputation.
04:27The risk management is also relatively prudent.
04:30The performance is okay.
04:32So until there is a foreign, and it looks like foreign sales are quite large in the BCA.
04:38So if we look at the numbers, it is the confidence that becomes the main question,
04:46especially for foreign investors.
04:49Okay, when confidence becomes the main question for investors,
04:52only the BCA, which is usually solid, usually stable, is released.
04:57What does this indicate?
05:00Because investors must also ask questions.
05:03Because usually, the stock market is indeed earlier to price a sentiment.
05:08It happened earlier, it was released earlier,
05:11then maybe there is a sentiment that is not okay.
05:13What do you think?
05:16Maybe like the message from President Prabowo
05:21is to improve communication.
05:23Especially from the government.
05:24Because we have seen some recent issues,
05:27maybe in the right direction,
05:32but maybe it's not consistent.
05:36So it depends.
05:37For example, corruption in Pertamina has been opened up in the process.
05:43But why does it look like the issue is suddenly a bit vague?
05:46Then there is also the possibility,
05:48for example, we talk about Nantara.
05:50It looks like what is promoted is independence.
05:55That it will be professional, that it will be independent.
05:58But we know that the establishment of Nantara itself is actually a political decision.
06:04Above that, we see that there are also decisions of many political figures.
06:09So is it really a rehabilitation that can be independent?
06:16Or alternatively, we can see,
06:18why doesn't the government make a transparent rule of thumb?
06:22Let the private sector play a role.
06:24Alternatively, it can be like that.
06:26To ensure efficiency and effectiveness.
06:30Okay.
06:31With that background, that sentiment,
06:35how is the analysis or recommendation for BCA right now
06:39when it comes down to the level of stock split?
06:43Fundamentally, it's still attractive.
06:46But again, the share price is also determined by confidence.
06:50So far, it looks like the confidence is still in the gray area.
06:56Because we see there is a pressure on the currency.
06:59So, if you play long term, maybe it's okay.
07:03Or we play in the short term,
07:05maybe because the sentiment is a bit positive,
07:07maybe it can be traded.
07:10But it means that if we hope, for example,
07:13that there is a quick recovery from the stock price,
07:16which may be able to return to the level above or approach 9000,
07:21maybe it's still a bit far.
07:23Okay. There is a chance to approach the level of 9000 again,
07:25but it's still gray.
07:26So for BCA, it's also speculative first, right?
07:30I think for the market as a whole,
07:33maybe in the end, the mood is more towards the trading mood.
07:37Because the confidence itself is still in question.
07:42It means we have to see, prove us wrong.
07:46From the government's point of view.
07:48So the government, please prove that the confidence in the market is wrong.
07:53And the government's proof takes time.
07:56For example, the interest rate has just been formed for a day or two,
07:59it can't perform in a week.
08:01It means it takes a long time to regain the trust of the investor,
08:05the optimism of the investor.
08:07So in the time of proof,
08:09we haven't seen it yet, what will the results of this trade war be like?
08:13What will the market be like?
08:16It will tend to be sideways, of course.
08:20Maybe it will be positively affected by the decrease in global pressure.
08:27Now there are still signs that later on April 2,
08:31the trade war from Trump will also be a pressure.
08:34If, for example, on April 2, the reciprocal tariff from the US is not bad,
08:41it will give a positive sentiment globally.
08:45Maybe we will follow that.
08:46But from the domestic side, it is still maintained.
08:49Okay, the sentiment from the domestic side is maintained.
08:52But what we can hope for is a positive sentiment from the external,
08:56including Donald Trump's tariff policy,
08:58which is expected to loosen a bit on April 2 next week.
09:02Okay, if we talk about banking, Mr. Chandra, or from Yuanta Securities,
09:06which banks are you more optimistic about right now?
09:11Still big banks.
09:13So we still look at BCA plus Singbara,
09:17maybe the big ones plus BRIS.
09:20So BMRI, BBRI, and BBNI.
09:23So around 5 banks may still be the main options.
09:28Buy on weakness?
09:30Buy on weakness.
09:31Buy on weakness.
09:32Okay, you also mentioned BRIS.
09:35Three directions were shaken by BRI and also Mandiri.
09:39But BRIS is still confident, the energy is still solid.
09:41Later we will discuss what is the reason why Mr. Chandra still recommends
09:47a lot of big banks, including BRIS.
09:49Stay with us on Market Pass.