IHSG -2,30% ke level 6.114,21 di sesi I, Senin (24/3/2025). Intraday, IHSG sempat turun ke level 5.967. 3 sektor turun paling dalam di antaranya, sektor barang baku -3,50%, AMMN -11,91%. Sektor barang konsumer non primer -3,25%, AMRT -7,22%. Sektor kesehatan -3,19%, KLBF -2,68%. Sektor teknologi +0,12%, DCII +2,75%. Dari sisi saham, emiten Grup Barito jadi pemberat utama BREN -7%, TPIA -2,76%. Namun, di perdagangan sesi II pelemahan IHSG terpangkas di tengah pembalikan arah menguat saham perbankan Big Caps, BMRI +1,36%, BBCA +0,63%, BRIS +3,37%.
Dari global, Indeks S&P 500 dan Dow Jones berhasil mencetak kenaikan tipis Jumat, menghapus kerugian sebelumnya setelah komentar dari Presiden AS Donald Trump memberikan harapan tarif yang mulai berlaku awal April mungkin tidak seberat yang dikhawatirkan.
Dari global, Indeks S&P 500 dan Dow Jones berhasil mencetak kenaikan tipis Jumat, menghapus kerugian sebelumnya setelah komentar dari Presiden AS Donald Trump memberikan harapan tarif yang mulai berlaku awal April mungkin tidak seberat yang dikhawatirkan.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will review the trade journey today,
00:10similar to the beginning of the month, where the Samkabung family continues to weaken and we remind you again,
00:15you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 D8788 D3723 as shown on the television screen and later.
00:24And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Robin Haryadi as the branch manager of CYC Solo Securities.
00:30We will get straight to the point. Mr. Robin, good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:35Amazing.
00:37Amazing, sir. The Samkabung family is weakening again and today, intraday, it reached 5,900.
00:45From the technical side, Mr. Robin, how do you see the continuation of the weakening that happened today?
00:50And intraday, how did the Samkabung family manage to break away from the weakening?
00:57Yes, technically speaking, the S&P 500 is already very oversold.
01:04It's very oversold and we just need to wait for a rebound.
01:10But if we look at the flow, it seems that foreign companies are still selling.
01:18They are still existing, so it's still hard to bounce back faster.
01:24But earlier, it was 4.X percent, even lower than the previous trading halt.
01:33So, I was worried, but there was a rebound started by big banks.
01:41It's already cheap, but will it sustain? Well, it still depends on the foreign flow.
01:48Hopefully, when it's relaxed, it will be better.
01:51Okay. In this week, from your analysis, where is the direction of the Samkabung family's movement?
01:57In the long holiday period, which on the close side, usually the transaction side is a bit quieter, sir,
02:04compared to the usual trading position?
02:08Yes, if I look at it, the level of Rp6,000 is still maintained.
02:16So, hopefully, it can be above Rp6,350, Rp6,500.
02:24But the direction still has a potential below Rp6,000,
02:32but it seems that it has been maintained at Rp6,000.
02:36Okay, and on the management side,
02:38today it was announced that there are also several parties that relate to the weakening of the Samkabung family,
02:44which is also related to the sentiment.
02:46How do you see it related to the development of this fund?
02:50Well, the rebound was because of the announcement of the fund.
02:54So, the name is quite market-friendly.
02:58There is Ray Dalio, there is Jeffriesa,
03:02there are people who are quite competent in their field.
03:05So, hopefully, it will build the trust of the investors.
03:10That's it.
03:11The rebound is because of that, but not all yet.
03:15So, it's a bit heavy for the time being, but at least there is resistance.
03:20Okay.
03:21From the sector and stock side, we go to the stock side first.
03:25Mr. Robin, some of the P-CAP bank stocks today are reversing to strengthen,
03:30even though some other Sambi CAPs are still under pressure.
03:33Even the BBRI, which is the RUPS today, is also under pressure, quite deep at 1.62%.
03:38But we go to the BBCA first, sir.
03:40Today, it is reversing to strengthen, even though the return to strengthening has also begun to be limited.
03:46Earlier, it was able to strengthen above 1% to the level of Rp8,000.
03:49The current position is at 79.75%, strengthening at 0.95%.
03:54What is the analysis for the BBCA?
03:57For the BBCA, it was able to break down after the lower low,
04:02but it was strong again because of the sentiment between the banks.
04:08Meanwhile, the lower low still tends to be corrected.
04:13Even if it goes up, it's a technical rebound and we play fast trade first.
04:18Until later, the security level above Rp8,400 can be kept.
04:25Below that, we still trade first.
04:29But for the BBCA itself, in my opinion, the levels in this area are quite cheap.
04:39What support can be expected for the BBCA, sir?
04:44For the BBCA, the next support is Rp7,350.
04:51Until the breakdown, Rp7,000.
04:53Hopefully, in my opinion, it's not too far.
04:57From the BBCA, we move to the BMRI, sir.
05:00Earlier, the jump was also quite okay when it returned to strengthening above 2%.
05:05However, again, the strengthening is also limited for the BMRI.
05:09Analysis and recommendations for the BMRI, the current position is at 44.60%, strengthening at 1.13%.
05:19The BMRI is also the same as the BBCA, where the outflow is still fast.
05:26It's still strong.
05:28But the rebound from the support is at Rp4,300.
05:37But it's the same, the condition is still lower low.
05:39The BMRI is okay when it's above Rp4,650, it can be held.
05:45But we still need to trade first, because the technical rebound is still strong.
05:51Okay, from Mandiri, we move to the BMRI, sir.
05:54We are still waiting for the results of the RUPS this afternoon.
05:58But the stock tends to experience a fairly deep correction again.
06:01The rebound was at Rp3,740, now it's at Rp3,610, weakening at 2.43%.
06:06Do you see foreign investors' selling actions are not enough to balance this, sir?
06:12It's also related to the sentiment of the RUPS and the announcement of dividends for today, sir.
06:17Yes, that's what's interesting.
06:20Yesterday, there was a foreign investment, even though it was small, but it gave hope.
06:26Today, there is an outside bar, meaning it's a decision.
06:32It wants to go up and down so that the range is quite wide.
06:37The sentiment of the RUPS and the sentiment of the dividends cannot go up,
06:43even though it is estimated that the yield is 8-9%.
06:48If the interim is reduced, it will be around 5%. It should be quite nice.
06:52But indeed, I see that the foreign outflow is still happening today,
06:58and if it's an exit, it's just an exit.
07:02Hopefully, in terms of technical, this is the best between BCA and BNP.
07:09Where will it go, sir? In the middle of the dividend distribution stage,
07:12when the dividends are announced according to the RUPS results?
07:18If I'm confident, it will go up to Rp3,810.
07:23Okay.
07:25The analysis for the BPR today is in the RUPS, at 2.43%, at Rp3,610.
07:30From the bank, we move to the conglomerates.
07:34Mr. Robin, today you are also a weightlifter for Samkabungan.
07:38We go to the Prayogo Pangestu group, there is a brand that is also the biggest weightlifter today,
07:44where it weakened above 8%, now it's at Rp5,450.
07:48Earlier, it was able to strengthen to the level of Rp6,100.
07:51Analysis and recommendations for the brand, Mr. Robin.
07:55Yes, the interesting thing is that the foreign brand has actually started to enter from two days ago.
08:02Today, there was a correction after three days of increase.
08:08Although it is still considered normal,
08:13and I believe this will increase because there is a balance program starting today.
08:20Maybe it hasn't been executed massively yet,
08:25so there is a balance program.
08:30Because the three-day increase is indeed prone to correction.
08:33But it's a bit too much.
08:37Support that can be provided for the brand, sir.
08:39Rp5,100 today, previously it was Rp5,050, Mr. Robin.
08:44Rp5,100, if the breakdown is Rp45,000-Rp80,000.
08:48But it looks like if it can rebound to Rp6,800.
08:56Recommendations for now?
08:58Currently, we are still waiting for BNC.
09:03Still BNC, and even if it is taken, it is still trading,
09:08unless it is closed above Rp5,700.
09:12The closing today is still closed at Rp5,450,
09:16which is quite deep at 8.79%.
09:19Some of the shares will be the passengers and also the shareholders of SamGabungan.
09:23And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the IDA channel.
09:27Mr. Robin, we will stop for a while,
09:29later we will try to see what Samsung plans have been recommended.
09:32And we will be back in a moment.