Category
đź—ž
NewsTranscript
00:00Good afternoon.
00:05My name is Rosa Balfour, I'm the director of Carnegie Europe.
00:10And let me just offer a few words of welcome to participants who have come here today here
00:15in Brussels, but also to those who have joined online from around the world.
00:23It is a great honor for me to be part of this public event marking the inaugural speech
00:30of NATO's Secretary General, Mark Rutte.
00:34I don't need to make a lengthy introduction.
00:37Mark Rutte was Prime Minister of the Netherlands for nearly 14 years, so people here know him.
00:45And this is his first public engagement, and it comes at a historical, critical moment
00:53where we are trying to navigate between global disorder and conflict and leadership transition.
01:02We see that Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues unabated, the Middle East has been in crisis,
01:10and there are other wars further afield, in Sudan, for instance, which sometimes people
01:16in the West do not pay enough attention to.
01:20And this is just to mention the three conflicts with the heaviest human toll.
01:27But then at the same time, this year half the world went to vote, and we are going through
01:33several leadership transitions in democratic countries, and of course in the transatlantic
01:39community.
01:40European governments have changed, including in the Netherlands.
01:44The government in the U.S. is also about to change with incoming President Trump.
01:52And of course we have new leadership in NATO, but also in the European Union.
01:57So this really is a good time to listen to political leaders, for political leaders to
02:02engage with the broader audience, and to offer their vision and clarity at a time of great
02:08confusion and danger.
02:10So please join me in welcoming Secretary General Mark Rutter to the stage, and we will listen
02:16to him and his inaugural speech before a moderated conversation with me and with the audience.
02:22Please.
02:34Thank you very much, Rosa, and many thanks to Carnegie Europe for organizing this event
02:43today in this spectacular venue.
02:47And it is great to see so many people here in the room, and I know many more join us
02:53online from all over the world.
02:56So good morning, afternoon, evening to you all.
03:02I'm very honored to start a crucial conversation with the citizens living in NATO countries,
03:10especially in Europe and Canada.
03:14It's you I'm talking to.
03:17It's your support I need.
03:20It's your voices and actions that will determine our future security.
03:27I'll be honest.
03:29The security situation does not look good.
03:33It's undoubtedly the worst in my lifetime, and I suspect in yours, too.
03:40From Brussels, it takes one day to drive to Ukraine.
03:45One day.
03:47That's how close the Russian bombs are falling.
03:51It's how close the Iranian drones are flying.
03:56Not very much further, the North Korean soldiers are fighting.
04:01Every day, this war causes more devastation and death.
04:06Every week, there are over 10,000 killed or wounded on all sides in Ukraine.
04:12Over one million casualties since February 2022.
04:18Putin is trying to wipe Ukraine off the map.
04:23He is trying to fundamentally change the security architecture that has kept Europe
04:28safe for decades.
04:30And he is trying to crush our freedom and way of life.
04:35His pattern of aggression is not new.
04:39But for too long, we did not act.
04:42Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014.
04:49And many did not want to believe he would launch all-out war on Ukraine in February
04:532022.
04:56How many more wake-up calls do we need?
05:00We should be profoundly concerned.
05:02I know I am.
05:05Russia's economy is on a war footing.
05:09In 2025, the total military spending will be 7 to 8 percent of GDP, if not more.
05:17That's a third of Russia's state budget, and the highest level since the Cold War.
05:24And Russia's defence industry is producing huge numbers of tanks, armoured vehicles,
05:30and ammunition.
05:33What Russia lacks in quality, it makes up for in quantity.
05:38With the help of China, Iran, and North Korea.
05:43This all points in one clear direction.
05:47Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation.
05:51With Ukraine.
05:53And with us.
05:55Hostile actions against Allied countries are real and accelerating.
06:01Malicious cyber-attacks on both sides of the Atlantic.
06:05Assassination attempts on British and German soil.
06:09Explosions at an ammunition warehouse in Czechia.
06:13The weaponisation of migrants crossing illegally into Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland.
06:21Jamming to disrupt civil aviation in the Baltic region.
06:26These attacks are not just isolated incidents.
06:31They are the result of a coordinated campaign to destabilise our societies and discourage
06:39us from supporting Ukraine.
06:43They circumvent our deterrence and bring the front line to our front doors.
06:50Even into our homes.
06:55Putin believes that a serious, irreconcilable struggle is unfolding for the formation of
07:01a new world order.
07:04These are his own words.
07:07Others share his belief.
07:09Not least China.
07:12We need to be clear-eyed about China's ambitions.
07:17China is substantially building up its forces, including its nuclear weapons, with no transparency
07:25and no limitations.
07:27From 200 warheads in 2020, China is expected to have more than a thousand nuclear weapons
07:34by 2030.
07:36Its space launch investments are skyrocketing.
07:41China is bullying Taiwan and pursuing access to our critical infrastructures in ways that
07:47could cripple our societies.
07:49Russia, China, but also North Korea and Iran are hard at work to try to weaken North America
07:58and Europe.
08:00To chip away at our freedom.
08:03They want to reshape the global order.
08:07Not to create a fairer one, but to secure their own spheres of influence.
08:14They are testing us.
08:16And the rest of the world is watching.
08:18No, we are not at war.
08:22But we are certainly not at peace either.
08:26I want to be clear.
08:27There is no imminent military threat to our 32 Allies.
08:32Because NATO has been transforming to keep us safe.
08:38Human spending has gone up.
08:40Innovation has accelerated.
08:42We have more forces at higher readiness, larger and more frequent military exercises.
08:49More troops and hardware on our eastern flank.
08:53And with Finland and Sweden, more NATO Allies.
08:58With all this, our deterrence is good.
09:02For now.
09:03But it is tomorrow I am worried about.
09:08We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years.
09:15Danger is moving towards us at full speed.
09:18We must not look the other way.
09:21We must face it.
09:22What is happening in Ukraine could happen here too.
09:27And regardless of the outcome of this war, we will not be safe in the future unless we
09:32are prepared to deal with danger.
09:35We can do that.
09:38We can prevent the next big war on NATO territory.
09:42And preserve our way of life.
09:45This requires us all to be faster and fiercer.
09:50This time to shift to a wartime mindset.
09:54And turbocharge our defence production and defence spending.
10:02On defence production, I am absolutely convinced that ramping it up is a top priority.
10:09Since starting at NATO, I have been to Ukraine and seen what they need to fight for freedom.
10:17I have visited engineers at Thales in France, a Rheinmetall factory – no, not in Germany
10:23– in Italy, and Turkish aerospace industries in Turkey, and I saw the capabilities they
10:30provide.
10:32And I have met with industry representatives who have told me what they require to increase
10:38their production.
10:41I can tell you, there is a lot that needs to be done to ensure long-term deterrence
10:47and restore peace.
10:49We are not where we want to be.
10:53Our defence industry here in Europe has been hollowed out by decades of under-investment
10:59and narrow national industrial interests.
11:03When our continent was at peace, and defence became an optional extra.
11:08As a result, our industry is too small, too fragmented, and too slow.
11:16Meanwhile, Russian arms factories are churning out war equipment around the clock.
11:23And despite the heroic efforts of our Ukrainian friends, Russia is reconstituting its forces
11:30much quicker than we had anticipated.
11:35They are learning fast from the battlefield.
11:38China's military-industrial base is also growing.
11:43And to some sources, China is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment five to six
11:50times faster than the U.S.
11:53It is heavily investing in munitions, accelerating space capabilities, and expanding its nuclear
12:00arsenal, I repeat, without any transparency or limitations.
12:07China is also challenging our technological edge by investing massively in the disruptive
12:13technologies of tomorrow, including AI, quantum, and space.
12:20All this will help China with planning, command and control, and targeting.
12:27Russia and China are racing ahead, we risk lagging behind.
12:33This is very dangerous.
12:36But it does not have to be.
12:38If we boost our industry, we can outpace our competitors.
12:43So what are we waiting for?
12:45We already have robust defense plans in place.
12:50We know exactly how we will defend our alliance, and what future assets and capabilities we
12:56need – from ships, tanks, jets, munitions and satellites, to new drone technologies.
13:05Allies are fighting against Russian swarms of drones.
13:08That's what we need to be prepared for.
13:12We also already have committed to accelerating the growth of defense industrial capacity
13:19and production across the alliance.
13:22Now we must deliver – I repeat, deliver – on our commitments.
13:28We all have a part to play to make this happen.
13:33To governments, I say, give our industries the big orders and long-term contracts they
13:39need to rapidly produce more and better capabilities.
13:44Buying only big-ticket items that are delivered too late will not keep us safe.
13:51We also need modern capabilities that use the most advanced technologies.
13:57And we need them now.
14:00So embrace risk and invest in the pool of innovators across our countries.
14:08Embracing risk requires you, governments, to change outdated procurement rules.
14:14And to reconsider your detailed national requirements.
14:19With a million casualties on our doorstep, you have no time to waste.
14:25As an example, related to armored personal carriers.
14:31One nation needs to have the rear door opening to the left.
14:35Another needs it to open to the right.
14:39And a third one needs it to open upwards.
14:43All these requirements are mandatory.
14:46Is this how we define our needs and priorities, especially when time is of the essence?
14:54This has got to change.
14:56I also say to governments, stop creating barriers between each other and between industries,
15:03banks, and pension funds.
15:05Instead, tear these barriers down.
15:09They only increase production costs, stifle innovation, and ultimately hamper our security.
15:18To the defense industry, I say you need to do everything you can to keep us safe.
15:25There's money on the table, and it will only increase.
15:29So dare to innovate and take risks.
15:33Come up with solutions to the swarms of drones and other new war tactics.
15:38Put in the extra shifts and new production lines.
15:42And finally, to the citizens of NATO countries, especially in Europe, I say, tell your banks
15:50and pension funds it is simply unacceptable that they refuse to invest in the defense
15:56industry.
15:58Defense is not in the same category as illicit drugs and pornography.
16:06Investing in defense is an investment in our security.
16:10It's a must.
16:14And this brings me to my main point, defense spending.
16:19It is true that we spend more on defense now than we did a decade ago, but we are still
16:26spending far less than during the Cold War, even though the threats to our freedom and
16:32security are just as big, if not bigger.
16:37During the Cold War, Europeans spent far more than 3 percent of their GDP on defense.
16:44With that mentality, we won the Cold War.
16:49Spending dropped after the Iron Curtain fell.
16:53The world was safer.
16:55It is not anymore.
16:58A decade ago, Allies agreed it was time to invest in defense once again.
17:04The benchmark was set at 2 percent.
17:07By 2023, NATO Allies agreed to invest at least 2 percent.
17:12At least.
17:14I can tell you, we are going to need a lot more than 2 percent.
17:21I know spending more on defense means spending less on other priorities.
17:28But it is only a little less.
17:30On average, European countries easily spend up to a quarter of their national income on
17:38pensions, health and social security systems.
17:43We need a small fraction of that money to make our defenses much stronger and to preserve
17:49our way of life.
17:53Prioritizing defense requires political leadership.
17:57It can be tough and risky in the short term.
18:01But it is absolutely essential in the long term.
18:06Some people will tell you otherwise.
18:09They think strong defense is not the way to peace.
18:13Well, they are wrong.
18:17Because without strong defense, there is no lasting security.
18:23And without security, there is no freedom for our children and grandchildren.
18:28No schools.
18:29No hospitals.
18:31No businesses.
18:32There is nothing.
18:36Those who lived through the Second World War know this.
18:39And our Ukrainian friends are living it every day.
18:46When I was in Kharkiv earlier this year, I saw so many buildings completely destroyed.
18:53I stood in rubble where homes used to be, where families used to live.
19:00I saw schools moved underground into metro stations.
19:04It was very moving to see children so eager to learn and teachers so eager to teach, despite
19:13their lives being completely disrupted.
19:17I visited the wounded in hospitals.
19:20Soldiers that lost limbs.
19:24War is brutal and ugly.
19:31War is also very costly in economic terms.
19:35Ukraine, as we speak, is allocating nearly a quarter of its GDP for defense next year.
19:43That is more than ten times what European NATO Allies spent.
19:48A harsh reminder that freedom does not come for free.
19:53If we don't spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much, much higher
20:00price later to fight it.
20:03Not billions, but trillions of euros.
20:07That's if we come out on top.
20:10And that's if we win.
20:15In politics, there is a time to talk, a time to decide, and a time to act.
20:21I know politicians talk a lot.
20:25That's what I do here today.
20:28They make decisions when needed, sometimes difficult ones.
20:33But to act, people must support those decisions.
20:37It's in your hands.
20:39Today I call for your support.
20:43Action is urgent.
20:45To protect our freedom, our prosperity, and our way of life, your politicians need to
20:52listen to your voices.
20:55Tell them you accept to make sacrifices today so that we can stay safe tomorrow.
21:01Tell them they need to spend more on defence so that we can continue to live in peace.
21:07Tell them that security matters more than anything.
21:12I'm confident that, collectively at NATO, we can continue to keep our one billion people
21:18safe.
21:20We have enormous advantages.
21:23We are 32 Allies strong.
21:26Together, NATO Allies represent half of the world's economic and military might.
21:33We have exceptional intelligence services, innovative industries and businesses, some
21:40of the best universities and research institutions in the world, and we have many partners across
21:46the globe.
21:47When we put our minds and political will to it, there is nothing we cannot do.
21:55Europe and North America together.
22:00Our adversaries think they are tough and we are soft.
22:05They invade other countries while we uphold international rules.
22:12They oppress their people while we cherish freedom.
22:17They should remember that there is no greater power than democracies coming together.
22:23When we are attacked, our response is fierce.
22:29To ensure no one ever considers attacking us, we must maintain long-term deterrence.
22:37We can do this.
22:39We have done it before.
22:41We can do it again.
22:46Thank you very much.
22:47Please take a seat.
23:01That was a very powerful and frank speech.
23:07I'm sure it will be listened around Europe and Canada, as you mentioned at the beginning.
23:15I'd like to ask you a few questions before we open it up to the audience.
23:20In doing so, I'd like to thank you for your willingness to engage with a broad audience.
23:25We will be taking questions from people here, but also online.
23:29Prepare your questions.
23:30First, I'd like to ask you to elaborate a little more on the issues that you raised.
23:39You focused so much on defence spending and on explaining why it is important to ordinary
23:45citizens.
23:47Of course, in the community of experts and policymakers, defence spending has reached
23:52the top of the agenda, the political agenda.
23:56Just today, the Financial Times was reporting of the idea that is floating around in your
24:01circles about actually raising the goal from 2% of GDP to 3% of GDP to be spent on defence.
24:11The European Union, the new term of the new leadership, as it just started, has created
24:18the position of a defence commissioner, and there are plenty of ideas circulating, a new
24:23white paper on defence, in order to beef up the EU's defence capacity.
24:29I think it's not just a question of spending more.
24:32It's also a question of spending better.
24:36Your predecessor, Jens Stoltenberg, when he left, issued a warning about the risks of
24:42duplication.
24:44My question really is, how can European states organise themselves politically to overcome
24:51those obstacles that you yourself mentioned in your speech, and make sure that it's not
24:56just about spending more, it's also about spending better, better coordination, better
25:00joint procurement, better sharing, better...
25:06Make sure that what Europeans can do on defence is more than the sum of its parts.
25:11What are your ideas to change the obstacles that we've seen so far?
25:17That's a very good question and quite a crucial question, and I saw that piece in the FT today
25:21and this 3% being mentioned, and I decided today not to mention a new figure.
25:27We will need more time to consult amongst allies what exactly the new level should be.
25:34But it is considerably more than 2%.
25:37But let me be very frank.
25:39If you would only spend more and not spend better, you have to go to at least 4%.
25:45And you can lower the 4% by doing two things.
25:48One is innovation, making sure that you get the most innovative technologies as part of
25:54your defence industrial base, and therefore in your defence organisations.
25:59And secondly, by buying together.
26:02So joint procurement.
26:04And as I said in my speech, we have to get rid of that idiotic system where every ally
26:11is having these detailed requirements, which makes it almost impossible to buy together,
26:17to have joint procurement, et cetera.
26:19So it is crucial that we spend not only more, but also better, because otherwise the financial
26:24impact will be huge, and then not even with 4% you can defend yourselves, because then
26:28you would not have the latest technologies implemented in your defence organisations,
26:35in your armies, in your navy, in the whole of your military.
26:39Well, indeed, that's the second question I wanted to ask you.
26:42It's not just about how to spend better.
26:45It's also about what one spends on.
26:49And what we've seen in Ukraine is, at the same time, we've seen a war which has shown
26:56many of the conventional warfare, trenches, et cetera, but also the critical role of technology
27:04and Ukrainian creativity in putting technology to good use.
27:09So we've seen the Ukrainians fight off the Russian fleet without even having a navy.
27:15So how do we – and you yourself, in your speech, you mentioned the wide – the hybrid
27:24challenges and threats that we are receiving.
27:28The MI6 has issued warnings about Russian intelligence going rogue.
27:34There are constantly items of news just showing that the threat is also hybrid, is cyber.
27:41So there's a wide gamut of technological innovation and equipment that we need to prepare
27:48ourselves with.
27:49So how do we do this?
27:50Again, I mean, it's about working together, but can you just elaborate a little bit?
27:55So when you talk about Ukraine, I mean, this is evidence that you need both.
27:59You need both the more traditional systems, so that's why some countries have delivered
28:04F-16s to Ukraine, where you see some of this heavy gear, the big-ticket items, moving
28:10into Ukraine.
28:11And at the same time, Ukraine is teaching us and showing us that by implementing the
28:15newest technologies, you can be very effective.
28:18But I do believe that for the foreseeable future, you will need both.
28:23So you will need some of these big-ticket items, the big systems, but also the latest
28:28technology, including what we can learn from AI, from quantum, et cetera.
28:34But you also mentioned something else, which are the cyberattacks, the sabotage, the fact
28:40that Russia and others are trying to put us under pressure, and it was one of the reasons
28:45why in my speech I said that we are not at war, but we are certainly not at peace either,
28:52because we see this happening.
28:53Look what happened in the UK, where we had cyberattacks at the National Health Service.
28:57In Belgium, where we had cyberattacks at the ports.
29:01We have seen a jamming in the Baltics of civil aviation.
29:07And we have seen assassination attempts in the UK and in Germany.
29:13So this is evidence that they are willing to go the whole way.
29:18And this is not your traditional war, it is not an Article 5, but we have to defend ourselves.
29:23And I'm so happy to say here that NATO, under Jens Stoltenberg's leadership, and I will
29:28absolutely continue with this, has been working extremely hard with all allies to make sure
29:33on cyber, on these acts of sabotage, on weaponization of the problems with the gas and oil supply,
29:42et cetera, that we have moved to make sure that as an alliance we stand together, we
29:46work together, and we have in place the systems to defend ourselves.
29:51But it is crucial, because this is a very worrying development.
29:56We talked about Ukraine.
29:59And I'd like to talk about Ukraine a little more, because since, I guess since the outcome
30:06of the U.S. election, there's a lot of talk, a lot of noise that some peace talks are imminent.
30:13We don't really have a plan.
30:15Nobody seems to have a plan yet, and of course the situation on the ground is not in favor
30:20of Ukraine at the moment.
30:21So it's a very difficult moment, including from the perspective of this leadership transition
30:28in Europe.
30:31I think what I'd like to ask you is what would be the grand principles of some kind of negotiation?
30:39What role should Europeans play in this?
30:42And here I'm speaking also to the European in you, the fact that you spent 14 years at
30:47the European Council table.
30:48What should be the role of Europeans?
30:51Because there's been a lot of talk about peace negotiations between incoming President Trump
30:56and the Russian president.
30:58Where does that leave Europeans?
31:01But also, listening to how the Ukrainian president, Zelensky, has been addressing this difficult
31:11moment, he's been talking about peace guarantees.
31:17And my question to you would be, my second question, because I realize we have two questions
31:22here, the role of Europeans, but what are the principles that could perhaps, that ought
31:28to be expected from your point of view in the context of peace negotiations?
31:34But also, is there anything short of NATO membership that can offer Ukraine peace guarantees?
31:41There is a huge risk here, and the risk is here that we are negotiating amongst ourselves
31:47what a peace deal might look like without Vladimir Putin at the table.
31:52And as we are democracies, we do this all out in the open.
31:55This is our strength.
31:56But this is also a small problem here, because discussing, I see all of this in the press
32:02about guarantees and NATO membership yes or no, and accepting yes or no to give up pieces
32:09of land in Ukraine.
32:11And I'm thinking, if I was now sitting in the Kremlin, and my name would be Vladimir
32:15Putin, I would say, hey, this is moving very positively for me, and I'm not even at the
32:22table.
32:23So I'm really holding back a bit on this.
32:26I remember when Volodymyr Zelensky, in the first days of the war, when he was offered
32:32refuge, I think it was in Warsaw or some other European country, that he said, I don't need
32:37a right, I need ammunition.
32:39Here I would say, he doesn't need more plans, he needs, again, ammunition and air defense,
32:45because what we need to do first now is to make sure that Ukraine, from a situation where
32:50the front is moving in the wrong direction, very slowly, at a high cost for the Russians,
32:55they have already lost 700,000 people, were wounded, again, this month is against a record,
33:02again, a record month in terms of the amount of casualties, but still, the front line is
33:08moving not in the direction to the east, but to the west, so we have to make sure that
33:13whenever these talks start, and it has to be the government in Ukraine, first of all,
33:17to decide to do that, he should do this from a position of strength.
33:21What I do know, however, and this is what we also have to discuss, of course, with our
33:27colleagues in the U.S., the present administration, the incoming administration, that in the end,
33:33the question will be, if there is a deal, who comes out on top?
33:38Is that Trump?
33:40Or is it Putin?
33:41And I can guarantee you, if Putin comes out on top, if it is a bad deal, that one Xi Jinping
33:48will be watching it and will think, hey, what does this mean for me in terms of starting
33:54to nibble Taiwan, to do other stuff in my part of the world?
33:58So it is crucial that whenever there is a deal, that it is a good deal, with all the
34:04elements in there, you mentioned many, I think these were very good considerations, but again,
34:08for me to start to discuss this, we start a sort of debate amongst ourselves, within
34:13the alliance, with our European partners, without having Putin at the table, and that
34:18is risky.
34:19Okay.
34:20Okay.
34:21So also pay attention to whatever the peace deal means for other actors around the world.
34:27Because at the moment, what we see is that the world is one world now, North Korea providing,
34:33getting missile technology and nuclear technology from the Russians, being able to use it against
34:38the US, Iran getting money from the Russians in return for drone technology and other stuff,
34:45and Iran using it to stir up trouble in the Middle East, China, dual use goods and sanction
34:53circumvention, helping the Russian war effort, supporting the Russian war effort, and of
35:00course, at a price.
35:02So this is not Ukraine, Russia, Europe.
35:06This is global, and it is impacting on South Korea, Japan, it is impacting directly on
35:11the United States.
35:13Thank you very much, and apologies, I have my phone out because I have all the questions
35:16that are coming from online, but first I'd like to invite a few people from the audience
35:21here, and I see, wow, fantastic, I'm going to try and take one question at a time.
35:27So shall we start, there's some microphones, so let's start, take one question here and
35:33then move perhaps to the left, and I will ask you, there's one question just there at
35:40the back, yep, I will ask you to introduce yourselves and just be brief and to the point.
35:50Thank you very much, Rosa.
35:51Good afternoon, Secretary General, my name is Pauline Massard, I'm a partner at Forward
35:55Global where I run the cyber and strategic intelligence practice.
36:00You'll doubtless remember a Gallup poll from this summer, I believe, which indicated that
36:04on average 32% of Europeans were ready to fight for their country.
36:10So my question is, what's the point of having more kit if we don't have the ability to generate
36:18the right force to fight high-intensity conflict, number one, and number two, how do we convince
36:23populations of which only 32% are ready to fight that they need to spend more on defence
36:29and thus less on their pensions, their health care and their education?
36:34Well, this is exactly why I addressed my speech not to you or to the politicians, but more
36:41generally to the one billion people living in NATO territory and of course particularly
36:44focusing on the European and Canadian part of NATO, because we need to have exactly this
36:51debate and the politicians need to hear from their citizens that yes, they love their health
36:58care systems and the social models and the pensions, et cetera, or they don't love them
37:02because they want them to be improved, and this is the political debates taking place
37:06in each country, in Europe, in Canada, in the US, everywhere.
37:10But when it comes to it, when you really drill down to what is at stake here, that defence
37:16has to take priority, because without defence, without deterrence, without being able, and
37:22NATO is not an offensive alliance, it is a defensive alliance.
37:26We want peace, but peace through strength, to quote a famous American politician.
37:32And that means that you need the money and you need the industrial base.
37:38And this is also an ask I have from this audience, because many of you are in positions of influence
37:44to reach large numbers of people, to please amplify, echo what we are discussing here
37:51today, that this is crucial, and that if we stick at 2%, yes, we are safe now, but
37:56in four or five years, we might not be safe anymore, and the deterrence might be too weakened
38:02to keep ourselves safe from whatever happens in Russia and other parts of the world.
38:08And that is a crucial debate.
38:10And then in the end, it is also a fair discussion, and if then people will decide, well, we are
38:15not willing to do that, we do accept the risk, then at least we have done that deliberately.
38:20I don't think it will be the outcome.
38:22I am absolutely convinced that when it comes to it, that parents and grandparents will
38:26always choose for the future of their children and making sure that they will make the necessary
38:31sacrifices, which are, by the way, limited.
38:33When you spend 25% on health and social security and on pensions, we only need a small fraction
38:40of that.
38:41And don't forget that in Europe, we are half of the world population, sorry, we are 10%
38:46of the world population, we spend 50% of all the spending in the world on social security.
38:52So in that sense, we have some room, I think, for maneuver.
38:56But please help to reach the 1 billion, and then for them to call up the politicians and
39:01tell them, please, prioritize defense over other spending items.
39:08I'd like to invite Elena.
39:09I'll try and take as many questions as possible.
39:12There are lots of questions, but I do want to take them one at a time so that you have
39:17the opportunity to answer them individually.
39:20Thank you very much, Secretary General.
39:22Elena Lazzaro from the European Parliament's Research Service.
39:26I wanted to ask you about NATO's approach to the Southern Neighborhood, and it's not
39:30unrelated.
39:31Your predecessor set out and launched a reflection process on the Southern Neighborhood, largely
39:36based on the premise that the theaters are getting increasingly linked, including with
39:40Russia's action in Africa.
39:42So with that reflection process having been wrapped up, but with the linkages between
39:47the theaters, I would say, more evident than ever before at the moment, including through
39:51hybrid threats that Rosa mentioned, what would be your next steps in the Southern, the approach
39:57to the South, and how do you view the follow-up to this reflection and the way it links the
40:01various theaters that we are now looking at?
40:05And I totally agree with you.
40:06When you look at Africa, we see both Russia and China gaining a lot of influence and some
40:12of the European powers moving out.
40:15And so it is crucial that we move forward on our Southern Neighborhood strategy.
40:19There is a special representative for the Southern Neighborhood.
40:21We will open a liaison office in Jordan that is focused on Jordan, but obviously it is
40:27also a signal that we are really investing in the region.
40:29We are working on partnerships with Tunisia, Mauritania, Jordan.
40:33Of course, we have the NATO mission in Iraq, which is probably not part of Africa, but
40:39at least it is outside NATO territory.
40:42So we have to work, but particularly also in Africa and in the Middle East, to make
40:47sure that we engage, that we liaise, not making them part of NATO, but helping them, for example,
40:54to build up their defense capacity.
40:57It is not always difficult.
40:59It can be by a couple of advisors helping in a country like Mauritania to ramp up their
41:04effectiveness in terms of defense, and NATO can do that.
41:08And that's what we will continue to do at a higher pace.
41:12So I will really follow up on this, what my predecessor started.
41:15I totally agree.
41:16We cannot leave Africa to the Chinese and the Russians.
41:19So what I'm going to do is I have a particularly provocative question from the online audience.
41:25So the question is, how can – no, that's the wrong one, sorry – is it conceivable
41:37that strengthening and emboldening NATO causes more instability because non-NATO powers become
41:43more nervous?
41:44No, it's not conceivable.
41:47And why?
41:48Because NATO is not an offensive organization.
41:50It is a defensive organization.
41:52We are based on democracy, the rule of law, values which are underpinning our whole alliance.
42:01But if we are not strong enough, if Putin and others would think that we cannot defend
42:07ourselves, then they might start to try to attack us.
42:12And already this is happening in the terrain of cyber, et cetera.
42:18But I mean really, really military attacks.
42:21We cannot take that risk.
42:23Please, and please introduce yourself to everyone.
42:27Thank you, Secretary General.
42:28Maria Vassiliou, Greek newspaper Tanea.
42:31I have actually two short questions.
42:33One is about what is your view concerning the discussion whether defense programs funded
42:39by EU money should be also open to third countries, non-European countries?
42:45And the second question is a country-specific one.
42:49You recently visited Turkey and Greece.
42:52And I would like to ask you, what was your impression concerning their will to keep their
42:58dialogue on a solid basis?
43:01And how important is it now that they keep the waters calm in the Aegean especially given
43:10the crisis in Syria?
43:14Starting with the second question, it was my impression talking to both President Erdogan
43:20but also to Prime Minister Mitsotakis that they're really working to improve the relationship.
43:25They're in a much better place than a couple of years ago.
43:29They are dialoguing.
43:30Whatever we can do to help, we will do because these are two key allies and part of NATO.
43:37And obviously Greece has a very strong defense.
43:40Syria is defending its own territory but obviously it's a key part of the overall
43:47NATO defense and they have a huge and impressive defense industrial base.
43:51So I think that is moving in the right direction.
43:54Then on the issue of European defense spending, so I'm working with Ursula von der Leyen and
44:02Antonio Costa.
44:03I did it last night with Commissioner Kobelius.
44:06And we're really working hard to make sure that NATO and the EU work closely together
44:11where NATO is about the hard stuff like, for example, the standard setting and the capability
44:15targets.
44:17But the EU possesses a huge soft power element in terms of the internal markets and helping
44:23to get the defense production going at a much higher pace.
44:26And obviously I understand when European money is involved that you do not want that European
44:31money to move to other parts of the world.
44:33That's clear.
44:34But at the same moment, it is also important to realize that you should not have new barriers
44:39and that you need a strong transatlantic defense industry community.
44:43Thales in France is working with partners in the U.S.
44:47I visited Rheinmetall, not in Germany, as I said in my speech, but in Italy.
44:51I remember that I told Georgia Maloney, the prime minister, I will visit the Rheinmetall
44:55factory.
44:56And I thought that she would be angry.
44:57She said, oh, that's great.
44:58It's one of our best.
44:59But don't forget Leonardo, also a great Italian industry, obviously.
45:04And I met with the boss of Leonardo after that.
45:08But it is crucial that when we have this transatlantic industry base that it works, at this moment,
45:15since 2022, European NATO allies have spent $184 billion in the U.S.
45:24So about half of all the defense spending when it goes in terms of procurement goes
45:29to U.S. companies.
45:31And the other half stays in Europe.
45:33And this is increasing on both sides of the Atlantic, because we are spending more money
45:37on defense.
45:38So I would say there is so much money going around.
45:40Defense industry, please stop complaining about needing your 10-year contracts.
45:44I understand that.
45:45But it's always difficult.
45:46And you know there is a lot of money going around.
45:48So invest.
45:49Put in the extra production lines and shifts.
45:52And to European and American allies, please work together.
45:56And obviously, this is an internal EU debate.
45:58I should not get involved any more than I have done now by answering this question.
46:02But I would very much plead to have a situation where these markets can function as one.
46:08And again, I do understand when European taxpayers' money is involved that somehow you want that
46:12return on that euro to be as much as possible in the EU.
46:16We can do that without hurting the Transatlantic Defense Corporation.
46:21Thank you very much.
46:22I'd like, for the sake of diversity, I'd like to give the floor to this gentleman here,
46:27who's in the second row here at the front.
46:30Because it's nice to see so many women intervening.
46:34And it's unusual, but it's also time to get a gentleman involved.
46:40Thank you, sir.
46:41Thank you for your speech.
46:42My name is Ivan Sorensen from the European Commission.
46:44My question would be, in your view, is there sufficient talk about the role of China for
46:50the public to support in Europe, but maybe also in the United States?
46:56Oh, good question.
46:57I think we at least should make sure that those who know what is happening talk about
47:02it so that, as a collective, and this is democracy, our citizens know what is happening.
47:09And of course, the media are crucial here.
47:11They will report about it.
47:12They have their own sources.
47:14But also, we as politicians and the multilateral organizations, that we share what we know.
47:18And what I tried to explain in my speech, that China is ramping up defense production,
47:26that we have now a couple of big Chinese defense industrial companies in the top ten.
47:31Ten years ago, there were none.
47:33Now we have three or four big Chinese companies in the top ten of big defense companies worldwide.
47:38So this is evidence that they are really charging ahead and that they will overtake us in terms
47:46of the overall spending and overall defense capacity.
47:48And we are producing too slow.
47:50And when you combine Russia and China, we are really producing too slow.
47:53There are some numbers saying that we produce in a year, but Russia is producing in three
47:59months.
48:00Can you imagine?
48:01Russia is no bigger than Belgium and the Netherlands combined, the economy of Russia.
48:04Can you imagine that Belgium and the Netherlands would produce in three months what the whole
48:07of NATO, from California to Turkey, is producing in a year?
48:13It's crazy.
48:14And this is because of all the bureaucracy.
48:15And some of these defense companies are waiting for the ten-year contracts.
48:19And now what you see is that South Korea is getting into the market.
48:21There are many European allies now buying South Korean stuff, which is good.
48:26I mean, I don't mind, as long as they get their hands on what they need.
48:29But I would be a bit worried if I was a defense company that the South Koreans are massively
48:33entering the NATO market.
48:36And this is because we have to do more.
48:38This is not only an attack on the defense industry.
48:40Yes, I'm criticizing to a certain extent, but also governments, also NATO.
48:45We all have to do better here.
48:48So I have – wow.
48:49Okay.
48:50I was just saying we're doing very well with our time, but actually with so many questions.
48:54So please, if you could take a question from the back there.
48:56The several hands have gone up.
48:59Yeah.
49:01And please introduce yourself.
49:04Well, good afternoon.
49:05I'm Joy from Jeunemer.
49:07And I would like to come with a youth perspective.
49:10It's already quite hard to advocate for a 2 percent increase in our GDP.
49:15So the 3 percent is kind of a little bit in utopia for us right now.
49:20So what advice can you give us to make defense sexier again, maybe?
49:25And also, do you think if we can do internship between universities and defense companies,
49:31it could be a good step to stop putting this devil work on the defense industries?
49:38I think that would be an excellent idea, yes, but it will not solve the whole issue of how
49:42to get the one billion people living in NATO territory with us, but it will help.
49:48But this is also a struggle I have, because this 2 percent target set in Wales in 2014
49:54had the plus of being simple.
49:58Everybody could understand we have to move to 2 percent.
50:00But of course, the downside of having this one number is that it is also a bit simplistic.
50:05So to move to a new number, and again, I will not commit myself to a new number today,
50:10but clearly over the coming weeks and months, we have to agree on what that number should be.
50:15It has to be underpinned by what NATO is doing currently, and what we are doing currently
50:19is getting total clarity on the capability targets we need to achieve.
50:24And when you look at those capability targets, and they are now being established.
50:29We are working one-on-one with allies to make sure that we exactly understand and the allies
50:33understand what we need to build up their defense as part of the overall NATO deterrence.
50:39Then it's clear that 2 percent is not enough, but then the question will be, do you go to
50:43a new number, or at least you have to underpin that number by making clear what type of capabilities
50:49we need.
50:50Top line, it will be, of course, air and missile defense, long-range weapons, logistics.
50:56These are three big issues where we have to invest in, where we are really lagging behind.
51:00We have to invest in the armies, next to the Navy and the Air Force, our land forces
51:06have to be really ramped up.
51:09But to make that more country-specific will probably help.
51:11And this was a discussion I had yesterday night with Commissioner Kobelius, who was
51:16also thinking of how to take that debate to the politicians, but also beyond the politicians,
51:22to the general public.
51:23I agree.
51:25So, I'm going to ask one question online, and then I have the two Oana's who have raised
51:31their hands.
51:32So maybe, yeah.
51:33But first, let me ask this question, because it has popped up on the online from more than
51:39one person, and it's the elephant in the room.
51:42What do you think about Trump's statements about leaving NATO?
51:45Today?
51:46I haven't heard it.
51:48No, I think it's general.
51:50And admittedly, he hasn't said that recently.
51:52No.
51:54No, I visited him a couple of weeks ago, there was absolutely no talk about NATO.
51:59What he wants is to make sure that the U.S. is not overspending and we are not doing enough.
52:06And he's totally right.
52:07I mean, I remember when he became president in 2016, 2017, that he continued to push us.
52:13And since he became president, we spent 641 billion more than before he came on.
52:21That's an aggregate of what we are spending more since then.
52:23And since 2014, it was very sluggish, the uptake of moving to the 2%.
52:29Since he became president, we accelerated.
52:31Of course, the full-scale onslaught of Russia on Ukraine has also ramped up defense spending.
52:39But he was very successful in ramping it up.
52:40He will again push us.
52:42But my point is this, I don't want to spend more because he wants it.
52:46We have to spend more because our deterrence is at stake.
52:50Our security is at stake.
52:51Our collective defense is not what it should be.
52:54And we are in real difficulty in four or five years.
52:56That is why we need to spend more.
52:58Not because of Donald Trump, but he is right, we need to do more.
53:01And by the way, what we need from him, I have a big ask from Donald Trump, and this is about
53:06the U.S. industrial defense capacity.
53:09I know, as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, how difficult it is to buy anything in the
53:12U.S., be it Patriots or missiles or whatever.
53:14You have to go through Congress, the Pentagon, and the White House, they all have to agree.
53:22And as I said, we have 184 billion we are spending since 2022 European allies in the
53:29U.S.
53:30That can be even more, I'm absolutely convinced, if he would make it easier for European allies
53:35to buy in the U.S.
53:37So this is something he can help us, and it helps also his own economy.
53:41But I think he was spot on on forcing us to spend more.
53:45But again, let's not do it now because he wants it.
53:48We do it because we need to do it.
53:50It's our collective defense which is at stake.
53:53And thank you.
53:54You've also answered another question online about integrated defense industrial base.
54:00Question two.
54:01And if that's okay, can I take two now?
54:02Please.
54:03Yes.
54:04So Oana, and then the other Oana.
54:05So I'll make this fast so the better Oana has enough time.
54:09Oana Popescu-Zanfield with both Carnegie and Global Focus Center in Romania.
54:13And perhaps predictably, I'm going to ask you if following the annulment of the presidential
54:20election in Romania recently over Russian interference, is there any lesson learned,
54:27is there any intention to step up perhaps instruments to address hybrid threats, make
54:33it operational domain perhaps, just like cyber?
54:38Anything that we can look forward to in the coming future.
54:42Thank you very much.
54:44And Cyrine, I'll ask you to sprint over to Oana here, who used to be the spokesperson
54:49of NATO.
54:50Indeed.
54:51Yes, of course.
54:52Good to see you.
54:53Oana Lungescu, now Distinguished Fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, RUSI.
54:58Secretary General, I'm sure you want to agree on 3% of GDP on defense by the Hague summit,
55:03but I'm not going to ask you about that.
55:05My question is, are you concerned that a potential peace agreement on Ukraine could
55:10give a pretext to leaders who will think, well, the danger's gone now, so it's okay,
55:16we don't need to increase defense spending?
55:19And in order to dramatize the need for more spending on defense, are you prepared to declassify
55:27to a certain extent the capability targets that NATO has in line with what Defense Commissioner
55:34Koubiliou seems to require?
55:36Well, on that second question, then I come to the question on hybrid and cyber.
55:43When you look at the capability targets, first of all, of course, we have to be clear what
55:48they are.
55:49We are in the process of establishing them, and we try to, before summer, it was foreseen
55:53for October, we have taken it forward because we cannot wait until October, so we will speed
55:59up the whole process, and hopefully Defense Minister will agree on closing off this whole
56:03process of reviewing our collective defense by May or June.
56:09And then, of course, the question will be how to share that, and it could help, obviously,
56:13and this was also to the question in the back of the room, it could help us to underpin
56:19the need to spend more, but obviously there are also political considerations we have
56:25to take into account, and sometimes there are some sensitivities, but we are looking
56:29at that.
56:30So on that level of aggregation, you can share the capability targets once they have been
56:35established.
56:36And then, if I can make one suggestion, let's never again talk about hybrid, because hybrid
56:43gives you – it's such a silly word, because it's not covering at all what is happening.
56:48What is happening is sabotage.
56:50What is happening, exactly as you said, is cyberattacks.
56:55NATO was hosting one of the biggest cyber exercises in Tallinn recently.
57:01We have set up a cyber center in NATO.
57:03We are helping with task forces which can go to allies if they need extra support.
57:11We are sharing more information.
57:12We are doing everything on cyber, but also when it comes to undersea sea cables, when
57:17it comes to more generally threats of sabotage, we are really pooling together, working together,
57:25making sure that we can fight back.
57:28And on Romania, well, of course, I've seen what happened, and it's, of course, very worrying.
57:34But we have seen it before.
57:35We have seen in Moldova what happened there with the European referendum and with the
57:39presidential elections.
57:41And Maya Sander was visiting this weekend, updated the North Atlantic Council, the ambassadors,
57:46on what happened in Moldova.
57:48So we have to – let's not be naive.
57:51And this is when I speak about we are not at war, but we are not at peace either, and
57:55it is not – it is even now in our living rooms to a certain extent, and we have to
58:00take it out, to get it out.
58:02We have to fight back.
58:03Thank you very much.
58:05We have actually come to an end of our hour together.
58:08I must apologize to those who haven't been able to ask questions.
58:12There were many questions, including online.
58:15But I would like to thank you, because you have been very graceful in taking on all these
58:19questions unprepared.
58:22I mean, you were prepared to answer them, but the questions were not prepared.
58:27So it's been a really good opportunity to engage with the community here in Brussels
58:34and also globally.
58:35So thank you very much.
58:36Spread the message.
58:37Help me to get to the 1 billion people.
58:39And good luck with spreading your message.
58:40Thank you so much.
58:41Thank you so much.