In this intense analysis, Prof. John Mearsheimer examines whether Netanyahu’s strategy in Gaza can lead to a definitive military victory 🏆⚔️.
With the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at a boiling point, Mearsheimer breaks down the political, military, and international factors at play 🔍🌍.
Can Israel truly conquer Gaza, or is the conflict heading for a dangerous deadlock? Tune in for expert insight on this critical issue 🔥💬.
#JohnMearsheimer #Netanyahu #GazaConflict #MiddleEastPolitics #IsraeliPalestinianConflict #MilitaryStrategy #GazaWar #InternationalRelations #Geopolitics #PoliticalAnalysis #MiddleEastConflict #IsraelStrategy #GazaVictory #PeaceInTheMiddleEast #GlobalTensions #PalestinianRights #IsraelDefense #MilitaryAnalysis #ConflictResolution #PoliticalInsights
With the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at a boiling point, Mearsheimer breaks down the political, military, and international factors at play 🔍🌍.
Can Israel truly conquer Gaza, or is the conflict heading for a dangerous deadlock? Tune in for expert insight on this critical issue 🔥💬.
#JohnMearsheimer #Netanyahu #GazaConflict #MiddleEastPolitics #IsraeliPalestinianConflict #MilitaryStrategy #GazaWar #InternationalRelations #Geopolitics #PoliticalAnalysis #MiddleEastConflict #IsraelStrategy #GazaVictory #PeaceInTheMiddleEast #GlobalTensions #PalestinianRights #IsraelDefense #MilitaryAnalysis #ConflictResolution #PoliticalInsights
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NewsTranscript
00:00Transcription by CastingWords
00:30Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom.
00:36Today is Thursday, May 8th, 2025.
00:39Professor John Mearsheimer will join us in just a moment on Can Netanyahu Conquer Gaza?
00:48But first this.
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02:16Professor Mearsham, we're always a pleasure.
02:20I would be remiss if I did not mention that Pope Leo XIV is from Chicago, where you are.
02:27I don't know if they'll be rejoicing in the streets.
02:29I don't know if you know him.
02:30I think he left Chicago as a boy.
02:33But this is rather startling, at least to me, that we have an American pope.
02:39Yeah, quite amazing.
02:40I thought popes were always supposed to be Italian.
02:43I was raised thinking they were always supposed to be Italian, and then along came Carol Wojtyla,
02:49and he, of course, captivated the world with his charisma and fidelity to first principles.
02:57But I just thought I would mention that.
02:59I'm still trying to process it.
03:02I don't mean to demean it, but I think he's cut very much in the Francis mold.
03:08We'll see where it goes.
03:11Before we get to Gaza, which is really where I want to spend some time with you,
03:19what is your take on President Trump's understanding of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
03:27And before you answer that, I want you to watch this little clip.
03:33Chris, cut number nine.
03:35The fact is that Putin is a war criminal.
03:40He's killed thousands and thousands of people.
03:43And he has made one thing clear.
03:45He wants to reestablish what was part of the Soviet empire,
03:49not just a peace that wants all of Ukraine.
03:51That's what he wants.
03:53And then do you think he'll stop there?
03:54Do you think he'll stop if he takes Ukraine?
03:58What do you think happens to Poland?
03:59What do you think of Belarus?
04:01What do you think happens to those NATO countries?
04:02Chris, I'm looking now for the one where he says Russia wants all of Ukraine.
04:10I don't have the right number.
04:12Forgive me.
04:18Chris, where President Trump says Russia wants all of Ukraine,
04:22that's the one that I want to play for Professor Mearsheimer.
04:25Yeah, right.
04:29We don't have it.
04:30But in an interview with Meet the Press, he made this rather startling statement
04:35that Russia is interested in taking all of Ukraine, just as President Biden did.
04:42Yeah, I saw that clip.
04:43And he also says in the clip, President Trump,
04:46that it's only because of him that they haven't taken all of Ukraine.
04:51I mean, this is delusional on both counts.
04:53First of all, there is zero evidence that the Russians have been interested
04:58in conquering all of Ukraine, just zero evidence.
05:02They don't have the capability to do that.
05:06And furthermore, the idea that they were bent on it
05:09and Donald Trump stopped them is kind of a laughable argument.
05:14The guy has been in office only since January 20th,
05:19and he certainly has not stopped them in that.
05:23What does this tell you about either his understanding of the relationship
05:30between Ukraine and Russia or his listening to neocons whispering in his ear
05:36or his political chicanery with the rest of us?
05:40Maybe he wants us to think that Putin wants all of Ukraine.
05:43And when he ends up with just Crimea and the four oblasts,
05:47Trump will take credit for having saved the rest of Ukraine.
05:50Who knows what's going through his mind?
05:52But there is no evidence whatsoever from anywhere on the planet
05:55that Putin wants all of Ukraine.
05:58Exactly.
06:00And this gets back to his claim the other day that we won both World War I
06:04and World War II.
06:05When you hear those kind of comments, you say,
06:08what planet is this guy living on?
06:10This just makes no sense at all.
06:13How does this play in the Kremlin, Professor Meerschaumber,
06:16when he makes a statement like this?
06:19Well, I think that it basically means that you don't know what Trump
06:24is really thinking because he changes his tune from day to day.
06:28So you really can't trust anything he says.
06:32And furthermore, even if you get a deal, let's say we work at a deal,
06:36how much faith can you put in him to keep that deal
06:41and to not walk away from it at some point?
06:44So this is a huge problem for us in terms of dealing with the Russians.
06:50And by the way, it's also a huge problem for us in terms of dealing
06:53with the Iranians.
06:55You know, the Iranians remember very well that he walked away
06:57from the JCPOA, which they thought was an agreement that was going
07:03to be kept by the United States.
07:05But Trump walked away.
07:06And if the Russians cut a deal with Trump and they make concessions
07:11to Trump to get that deal, can they trust that he won't welch
07:16on the deal shortly thereafter?
07:18And the answer is no.
07:19And this really gets in the way of negotiating the settlement.
07:25So in the past 10 days, Trump has claimed that the United States
07:32was largely responsible for defeating Nazi Germany and not the Russians.
07:36He has claimed that Russia has lost over a million men in the Ukraine conflict.
07:42And he has dispatched General Kellogg yet again.
07:46And I'll play a clip from you for you from him just yesterday to offer a peace plan
07:51that he knows is dead in the water.
07:53What does this tell the Kremlin?
07:56Again, it tells the Kremlin that his policy is incoherent, that there's just, you know,
08:03no clear policy objective and no strategy for achieving that objective.
08:10I mean, what else can the Kremlin conclude?
08:12I mean, the Kremlin has a vested interest in playing nice with Trump and not picking a fight
08:17with him and pretending that they're still willing to work out a deal.
08:22But I would imagine that behind closed doors, the Russians are thinking that we can't place
08:27much faith in Trump.
08:29And even if we get a deal, we can't place much faith in that deal.
08:32What we have to do is we have to position ourselves on the battlefield in ways that ensure
08:38our security once the shooting stops and you get a frozen conflict.
08:43Will Turkey and Egypt allow Netanyahu to invade Gaza?
08:55Well, he's already invaded Gaza.
08:57Well, I mean, invaded in a way that he announces publicly, as he did earlier this week, he intends
09:06to occupy the entire place and remove all the Palestinians.
09:09Will this finally provoke the ire of somebody with a military?
09:17I think that he will attempt to occupy all of Gaza.
09:23Whether he can do it is another matter.
09:26The Israelis are having great problems raising the necessary forces to do that.
09:31And you want to understand that once they go in, they have to keep those forces there.
09:35So it's not like they go in for one week, then they pull the forces out, and that's the
09:39end of the story.
09:41To occupy a piece of real estate as big as Gaza, you need a lot of troops if you're going
09:45to occupy all of it.
09:47And they're talking about defeating Hamas, and that's going to require lots of troops as
09:52well.
09:52And I don't think they have the troops.
09:55And I think there's enough dissatisfaction inside of Israel at this point in time that
10:00this is going to cause all sorts of problems for Netanyahu.
10:02The other thing you want to remember is he tries to root out Hamas, and he ratchets up
10:08the war.
10:09He's going to end up killing more hostages.
10:11And this is not going to sit well with a huge chunk of the Israeli population.
10:16So that's one part of the story.
10:17The other part of the story is the ethnic cleansing.
10:20And I think the ethnic cleansing is where you may get some intervention if Netanyahu tries
10:28to push the Palestinians out, because the obvious place that he will push them is Egypt
10:33and maybe Jordan.
10:35And I think the Egyptians will resist this greatly.
10:39And I think there's a serious possibility that will lead to war.
10:44And you want to also remember that there will be great resistance from the Palestinians.
10:49This is not going to be like 1948, where there was hardly any resistance.
10:54The Palestinians will put up great resistance.
10:57Lots of Hamas fighters will still be around.
11:00So if the Israelis try to ethically cleanse Gaza, it will involve a huge amount of murder
11:06and mayhem.
11:07And whether Israel can get away with that remains to be seen.
11:11Right now, he's committing murder and mayhem by starvation.
11:19Yes, he has.
11:21But the number of people who have actually died, thankfully, is not that great.
11:26It's a small number so far.
11:28I think there is a great danger that he will end up starving hundreds of thousands of people.
11:35But even there, I think the international community will make enough noise that it will be very
11:41difficult for him to do that.
11:44I mean, maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I actually do believe that there's limits
11:49to what he can do, which is not to say that what he is doing now isn't absolutely horrible.
11:56It is.
11:56It makes me sick to my stomach to watch what the Israelis are doing to the Palestinians.
12:00But fortunately, the number of people who have died from this starvation campaign so far is
12:08not that great.
12:09Does it also sicken you that nobody is lifting a finger to resist it and that United States
12:17taxpayers are funding it?
12:20Absolutely.
12:21I mean, I don't understand what Trump is thinking here.
12:24He's in the same category as Genocide Joe.
12:26We're going to start calling him Genocide Don.
12:28I mean, he is encouraging the Israelis to pursue this policy.
12:34Indeed, he is encouraging the Israelis to ethnically cleanse Gaza.
12:39He's basically saying that would be a good thing because we can then turn Gaza into the
12:44Riviera on the Mediterranean.
12:46It's just hard to believe that this is happening.
12:49It was hard to believe when it was happening under Biden.
12:52And it's hard to believe how much silence there is all across the West.
12:56We have all these human rights mavens, all these people who stand up and talk about the importance
13:04of liberal values, who criticize military action here, there, and everywhere.
13:10And what are they doing in this particular case?
13:12Virtually nothing.
13:15And this is the principal reason that the Israelis are able to get away with this.
13:19Does Hamas, which of course has no air force and no effective air defenses, have the ability
13:29to resist a full-scale, boots-on-the-ground invasion by the IDF?
13:37Yes.
13:39I mean, you had almost a full-scale invasion between, I think it was mid-October is when
13:47the IDF went into Gaza.
13:49Up until recently, they had huge numbers of forces in Gaza.
13:55The Israelis can flood, once again, Gaza with troops.
14:00But the idea that they're going to finish off Hamas once and for all is not a serious argument.
14:06The only way they could militarily defeat Hamas is to ethically cleanse all of Gaza, drive
14:12every last Palestinian out.
14:14And if they do that, they will have defeated Hamas.
14:18But they have already, again, tried with massive military forces on the ground and in the air
14:24to destroy Hamas.
14:26And they failed, and they will fail again, unless they can go and cleanse.
14:32What is the status of the United States bombing Yemen?
14:38Donald Trump claimed that there was some sort of a ceasefire with the Houthis.
14:43Our man on the ground, Pepe Escobar, says no such thing at all.
14:47Well, you know, I don't know what to say other than it appears from the media and from what
14:56the Trump administration is saying that a deal was cut and that we basically have admitted
15:03defeat, that we want to end the bombing of the Houthis.
15:08And in return, they're not going to shoot at American ships in the Red Sea.
15:16Yeah, but they're not going to shoot at American ships because they won't be there.
15:19There won't be any American ships to shoot at.
15:23Well, I don't know.
15:24I think they're talking about ships that are carrying cargo, not necessarily naval ships.
15:31I don't know if the naval ships are leaving or not.
15:33I mean, one of the problems here is trying to get hard information on exactly what's going
15:39on here.
15:40You know, if this deal was reached, what ships are they actually not shooting at?
15:46They say they're only shooting at Israeli ships.
15:49They're only shooting at ships or cargo ships that are headed towards Israel.
15:54How can they know that?
15:56And so forth and so on.
15:58It's just not clear to me.
16:00But it is the one thing I think that is clear is that we want to put an end to our fight
16:06with the Houthis.
16:07And the reason is Trump thought that he could beat the Houthis easily.
16:12He thought that Joe Biden was a pussycat.
16:15And if he, Donald Trump, just turned the dogs loose, we'd go in there, finish the Houthis
16:20off.
16:20And that would be the end of the story.
16:23But he found out Trump did just like Biden did.
16:27And just like the Saudis did before that, that the Houthis are very difficult to defeat.
16:34And we were also, as I've said on a number of occasions, expending huge amounts of ammunition
16:40in our fight against the Houthis that was needed for East Asia.
16:48And also, we were deploying lots of naval assets in the Mediterranean area and in the Red Sea
16:56area that needed to be out in East Asia.
17:00So this was not a good situation for us.
17:03And it's not surprising that Trump is trying to walk away from the war with the Houthis.
17:09But again, we don't know exactly what that means.
17:11Larry Johnson, who is one of our go-to military people and is a fan of yours and was on the
17:19show twice a week, has estimated on the basis of research that the United States has spent
17:25a billion dollars bombing the Houthis.
17:29That includes two, I never heard of this, two jet fighters that fell off of, fell off of
17:36the USS Harry Truman, an aircraft carrier in the ocean there.
17:43They're worth between 78 and 80 million dollars each.
17:50First, have you ever heard of aircraft carrier, of jet fighters falling off of aircraft carriers?
17:57And secondly, I guess we just wasted a billion dollars.
18:02Yeah, well, Larry's done some very fine work in this regard, for sure.
18:05I would note to you that there was a third F-18 that was lost in a crash.
18:10So we've lost three F-18s.
18:12And we've lost a lot of very expensive Reaper drones.
18:19And what happened, I think, with regard to the F-18 that fell off the carrier, or at least
18:27one of them, it was making a sharp turn to avoid a Houthi missile that was coming at the
18:34carrier.
18:35And in the process of making that sharp turn, the F-18 fell off the carrier.
18:40I would imagine that in World War II, given the large number of carriers we had and all
18:45the carrier battles we fought, that there were more than a few instances where aircraft
18:50rolled off the carriers.
18:51I would imagine the captain of the ship is now swabbing the deck and losing an F-18.
18:59I want to ask you about India and Pakistan.
19:02But first, Sonia, cut number two.
19:04This is a lieutenant general in the Indian military talking about how vulnerable Pakistan is.
19:14Cut number two.
19:14If you look at Pakistan from northeast to southwest, their east-west depth, they do not have the
19:21strategic depth to absorb our strike.
19:23All their major cities, population centers, they are all within this small little strip
19:29of land.
19:30Our depth is so much.
19:31When Pakistan strikes, we will be able to absorb that strike because, of course, there will
19:36be damage.
19:37But when we go back with a massive strike, which is our declared policy, and unacceptable damage,
19:44Pakistan will cease to exist.
19:46Pakistan will cease to exist.
19:49Is this over?
19:50Or is this the beginning of something serious?
19:54The back and forth between Pakistan and India?
19:58Well, it's not 100% clear where this one is headed.
20:02I think he's overstating the case.
20:05My take on this is that you have to think about it in terms of the escalation ladder involving
20:11the two sides.
20:12And what's happening here is that you're on the lower rungs, the very low rungs of the
20:16escalation ladder.
20:18And on the lower rungs, and actually the middle range rungs, the Indians actually don't have
20:24an advantage over the Pakistanis.
20:26The Pakistanis have substantial conventional capability.
20:30And on the lower rungs, as you go back and forth with each side retaliating, I don't believe
20:36the Indians can do more damage than the Pakistanis can.
20:40The question is what happens when you get up top on the escalation ladder.
20:45And up there, the fact that India has conventional superiority over the Pakistanis means that if a war
20:54breaks out, even a limited war, certainly a major war, what will happen is the Indians will
21:00defeat the Pakistanis at the conventional level.
21:04However, Pakistan has nuclear weapons.
21:10And if India is invading Pakistan, which is the likely scenario once you're up at the top of the
21:18escalation ladder, you're on sacred territory for Pakistan.
21:22You're on Pakistani homeland.
21:24And you're losing because the Indians have conventional superiority.
21:29That's the scenario where we worry that the Pakistanis will turn to nuclear weapons.
21:35And by the way, the Indians worry about this scenario as well.
21:39They understand full well that they have conventional superiority.
21:43But that just means that if they're really clobbering the Pakistanis, the temptation to go to nuclear
21:50weapons will be very great.
21:52Are there any CIA or MI6 fingerprints on this terrorist attack in Kashmir?
22:01No.
22:02I mean, the Indians actually claim that the Pakistani government is responsible for this.
22:07But there's no evidence in the public record that that's the case.
22:11The Indians vehemently, excuse me, the Pakistanis vehemently deny that they're behind this terrorist
22:18attack, that it was some terrorist group that they have had no contact with.
22:24The Indians don't believe that.
22:26But if the Indians have the evidence that Pakistan's government was linked to this terrorist attack,
22:34they have not put it out in the public yet.
22:37So we can't say for sure whether they were involved, the Pakistanis or the Pakistani government.
22:44And we certainly have no evidence that the CIA or MI6 or any other intelligence organization was involved.
22:52Does the United States have an interest in the outcome?
22:55Yes, the United States has an interest in making sure that this one doesn't escalate.
23:01We have an interest in making sure that we cap the volcano, that we keep both sides on the lower rungs
23:07of the escalation ladder.
23:09And then we do as much as we can to convince them to take an off ramp.
23:15Are Pakistanis nuclear weapons legally possessed and internationally inspected, unlike the Israelis?
23:30No, the Israelis, the Indians, and the Pakistanis are the three countries that refused to sign the NPT.
23:38And that we were interested in getting to give up nuclear weapons or not pursue nuclear weapons and sign the NPT.
23:48So there's hardly any difference between Pakistan and India on one hand and Israel on the other.
23:53Except that Pakistan and India acknowledge that they have the nuclear weapons.
23:58Yeah.
23:59It's this bizarre situation that you and I have talked about before.
24:03Right.
24:04Israelis insist on pretending that they don't have nuclear weapons.
24:08And nobody seems to ask the right questions at the right time on international television of Israeli officials or even American officials.
24:16I wonder what Trump would say if in one of those continuous five-time-a-day pressers he holds in the Oval Office these days,
24:25somebody asked him about the Israeli nuclear weapons.
24:30He'd probably say, I don't know, you're asking the wrong people.
24:34You're asking the wrong person.
24:36Actually, he'd probably say, everybody knows that the Israelis have nuclear weapons.
24:41Well, that would be eye-opening if he were to say that, and it would be a true statement.
24:46Absolutely.
24:47It would be interesting to see what he would say if somebody asked him that question.
24:53I mean, Trump is not somebody who's good at controlling himself.
24:56He often just blurts out things that he should keep to himself.
25:03And on this issue, I wouldn't be surprised if he spoke the truth.
25:08But you may be right that he would.
25:11I'm sort of speculating.
25:12Here's the clip I wanted to show you earlier where he says all of Ukraine.
25:18Sonia, cut number 10.
25:20Ukraine, there's been discussions they will have to give up some of the land.
25:23Russia will have to give up all of Ukraine, because that's what they want.
25:27All of Ukraine, meaning they wouldn't keep any of the land that they've claimed?
25:31Russia would have to give up all of Ukraine, because what Russia wants is all of Ukraine.
25:37And if I didn't get involved, they would be fighting right now for all of Ukraine.
25:42Russia doesn't want the strip that they have now.
25:45Russia wants all of Ukraine.
25:46And if it weren't me, they would keep going.
25:50Is this lunacy?
25:53Yes.
25:55It's just hard to believe.
25:57I mean, there's no, as we said before, there's no evidence that Russia wants all of Ukraine.
26:02And the argument that except for him, Russia would now control all of Ukraine is simply a crazy argument.
26:10I wonder what people whisper into his ear, people like Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Sebastian Gorka, Tulsi Gabbard, the people around him with whom he confers every day after he says things like that.
26:27But, you know, that's just my own speculation, wondering what their internal conversations are like.
26:34Is this planned and calculated to create a misimpression on the part of the American public, or is this what the man truly thinks?
26:41We don't know that.
26:43Well, I mean, there's sort of two issues here.
26:45One is what they tell him beforehand.
26:47In other words, are they putting crazy ideas in his head?
26:50And then second is, how do they react when he makes statements that are foolish and bound to get him into trouble or undermine the negotiations that are taking place with, be it Russia or Iran?
27:05And I would imagine that a lot of these crazy arguments that he makes are not the result of somebody whispering in his ear.
27:13He's just kind of a wild and crazy guy.
27:16That's who Donald Trump is.
27:17And he's been able to get away with this for years now, right?
27:23So he feels free to go out and say outrageous things because he knows there's no accountability.
27:29And I would guess with regard to the second issue of what his close advisors, his team says to him after the fact,
27:39I would imagine they've reached the point where they've given up trying to, you know, get him on the straight and narrow
27:45and to prevent him from saying these foolish things.
27:48I think they probably say he is what he is.
27:51There's not much we can do about it.
27:52You know, can't do much damage limitation.
27:56And therefore, this is just going to go on.
27:59Professor Amir Shamer, thank you for your time.
28:01Thank you for letting me go from topic to topic.
28:05Much appreciated.
28:06We look forward to seeing you next week.
28:08Likewise.
28:08Be well, Judge.
28:10You as well.
28:11And coming up still today at 4 o'clock, Colonel Larry Wilkerson in from Moscow, from Tehran to Moscow at 4.30, Pepe Escobar.
28:23Josh Napolitano for Judging Freedom.
28:41estoy fuerte.
28:42because of my time.
28:42No.
28:43Yes.
28:43Yes.
28:43I am.
28:44No.
28:45I am.
28:46I am.
28:47I am.
28:47I am.
28:48I am.
28:48I am.
28:50I am.
28:52I am.
28:53I am.
28:58And you are not.