In this in-depth discussion, Glenn Diesen asks Seyed Marandi (Tehran University professor and nuclear negotiator) and Alastair Crooke (former British diplomat) why Trumpโs negotiations have seemingly stalled โ๏ธ๐ฌ.
Marandi and Crooke offer insight into the complexities of diplomacy and the challenges facing US foreign policy ๐บ๐ธ๐.
Tune in for expert analysis on the failures of Trump's approach and what might have been done differently ๐ง.
#SeyedMarandi #AlastairCrooke #GlennDiesen #TrumpNegotiations #USForeignPolicy #IranNuclearDeal #Diplomacy #MiddleEastPolitics #IranUSRelations #InternationalDiplomacy #PeaceTalks #Geopolitics #USIranConflict #NuclearNegotiations #GlobalPolitics #MiddleEastConflict #EUForeignPolicy #TrumpFail #PoliticalAnalysis #IranSanctions
Marandi and Crooke offer insight into the complexities of diplomacy and the challenges facing US foreign policy ๐บ๐ธ๐.
Tune in for expert analysis on the failures of Trump's approach and what might have been done differently ๐ง.
#SeyedMarandi #AlastairCrooke #GlennDiesen #TrumpNegotiations #USForeignPolicy #IranNuclearDeal #Diplomacy #MiddleEastPolitics #IranUSRelations #InternationalDiplomacy #PeaceTalks #Geopolitics #USIranConflict #NuclearNegotiations #GlobalPolitics #MiddleEastConflict #EUForeignPolicy #TrumpFail #PoliticalAnalysis #IranSanctions
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NewsTranscript
00:01Hi everyone and welcome to today's program. I'm joined by two of my
00:05favorite analysts Alastair Crook and professor Sayed Marandi and well this
00:12podcast is a bit different from my usual ones as we're doing this in person and
00:17also we're broadcasting from Iran its capital Tehran so welcome to the both of
00:24you thank you I thought a good way to start off the discussion would be to
00:32look at the nuclear talks now between the United States and Iran it was just
00:39before I started the program said that everything seems to be connected to
00:42everything these days so how can we actually make sense of the the
00:48complexities of this discussions I think you have to separate them into
00:54probably about three different containers to understand it first of all
01:00there are other technical talks that are going we're just about to have the fourth
01:05I think series of talks and that's in fact there's nothing new really going on in
01:12that in in one respect all the issues that have come up like should Iran import
01:18enriched uranium instead of enriching inside Iran should the Russians be
01:25providing energy if you like for Iranian industry should how should this all of
01:36these technical things should enriched uranium be exported out of the country
01:41to Russia like happened during the early part all those things we've been through
01:45and we're already just going around the same old treadmill on these same issues
01:50at the moment with within the talks they're looking for some new way of
01:55presenting it that will allow Trump to present it is not the same as the old if
02:02you like JCPOA because that has a bad reputation in Washington a warmed up Obama
02:10JCPOA would get a thumbs down in most of Washington and Congress and certainly in
02:18Israel so that's one component if you like compartment to this element the second
02:25compartment really is that this touches on a deep division within the United States
02:32and that's quite complicated there is a large constituency that supports Israel as we
02:41all know in Israel but there's a constituency which we call the deep state and this has
02:49deep structures that are untouchable in American politics and one of them is
02:56support for Israel bipartisan you're not allowed to discuss it even a presidential in presidential elections and so that that element of the deep state plus a sort of conventional thinking in the Pentagon which has existed if you like since the end of the Cold War the end of the Cold War was you know the end of history the triumph of the liberal order
03:26and for them it's a sort of colonial aspect to this too and then the last one of
03:34course is Israel itself Netanyahu this has been this has been a campaign of
03:41Netanyahu and his father by the way but from Netanyahu 25 years that Iran must be if you
03:49you like neutered either on the Libyan model where you just rip out everything of the uranium
03:58enrichment's infrastructure in Iran leave them with nothing empty and then tackle their ballistic missiles and
04:09the tackle or support for Hezbollah and the other parties that's what he would like to see is a completely
04:16neutered Iran there is an element to but it's not so clear that we've had from even
04:23from Whitcoff who I think is a fairly accurate reflector of what Trump's thinking in his
04:32discussion with Tucker Carlson he said look you know the whole of the Middle East is
04:40slowly normalizing Israel and the real problem is at the top with Iran and its existential threat by its
04:51support for Hezbollah Hamas the Houthis etc now if we could only get rid of that he didn't say how get
05:01rid of that wouldn't that be epic it would be a new Middle East he didn't say it but of course and we
05:11would get the oil and gas in the Middle East too but I mean so there is a vision if you like the new
05:19Middle East requires however it's achieved the neutralization of Iran well that this is a great
05:29point though if it doesn't seem as if there's a clear consensus even within the United States what
05:34they want I watched recently Donald Trump argue that there has to be the complete dismantlement of
05:41Iran's nuclear program then Marco Rubio comes and say well we have to limit the enrichment but they can
05:46still have a civilian nuclear program at the same time we're hearing now nuclear discussions being
05:54linked to limiting the ballistic missiles of Iran and also for Iran to give up the entire resistance
06:00which is I think if anyone has been to run you see how in that this is a non-starter but what do
06:06what what you see the Americans actually going after do you see the same divisions as Alastair Crook suggested yes
06:15I think that divisions inside the United States are are very important and I think it's a it's fair to
06:27say that the chances for success will be will not necessarily be very high because of what's going on
06:34inside Washington not only does and Trump is constantly flip-flopping and in his recent interview we saw him
06:44say two things almost simultaneously he spoke about removing the whole program and then he said I'm
06:52willing to listen to to the argument for so he's saying literally two things at the same time so these constant
07:02u-turns flip-flops I think show that the situation in Washington is is chaotic and it's not just the Iranian
07:12nuclear negotiations it's it's the tariff war it's the trade war we see the United States constantly
07:19shifting its position in Ukraine we saw how Trump had a mandate he could have ended the war literally
07:27on day one because that's what he spoke of during the months prior to the election but he didn't and I think that's a sign of his weakness
07:39so it's not just the divisions but I think it's it's a sign that Trump really isn't a very powerful
07:44and and strong president because as I was saying he he could have stopped the Ukraine war
07:50literally days after he came to power he could have said this is not my war this is Biden's war as he's keep saying
07:57even though we know that he was involved in deeply involved in in creating this crisis during his first presidency
08:04but he could have said this is not my war I'm ending it and I'm I'm moving on to something else but he
08:10didn't and so now after over a hundred days we see that the United States is beginning to revive its
08:17military support for Ukraine that I think is something that people in Iran are monitoring they're saying
08:22that well if if he's that weak then how is he going to be able to be steadfast when it comes to negotiating
08:28with us and then there's the issue of the negotiations over Gaza those were that was his ceasefire it
08:35wasn't Obama's it wasn't Biden's where he could say was the worst agreement in the world Whitcoff was
08:42behind the talks we heard that he read the riot act to Netanyahu on a Saturday afternoon but then
08:50literally after the ceasefire was enforced and literally days after a couple of weeks after he spoke
08:57about ethnic cleansing and that the Palestinians must be removed so the first second third phase of
09:04this ceasefire which was all negotiated and agreed upon suddenly all went out the window so on the
09:11one hand we see a weak Trump on the other hand we see a Trump that constantly flip-flops and also we
09:17see a Trump who does not abide or respect his own agreements because Whitcoff is his man so for the
09:26Iranian side the question is which Trump and even if Trump does sign an agreement let's say there is
09:33somehow an agreement negotiated who's to say that we won't wake up in the morning and we'll see
09:38something on truth social where Trump says I don't I'm not going to do this anymore well I like the
09:47comparison because we do see the same in Ukraine Trump has two men he has Whitcoff which seems to
09:53recognize the Russian security concern then he has Kellogg now in with Iran you see similar I guess
09:59indecision some suggest that this time to remove Iran as soon as being the key problem while others
10:09think they can make a deal but within this I guess weak presidency of Trump to what extent you see Israel
10:17being able to swing or do they want to swing the United States towards war and do you see them being
10:24successful towards this end it's much more than indecision in the Trump team there is indecision but it is
10:37really when it comes to the negotiations in Ukraine with Russia it is something much more profound there is
10:47no sustaining if you like team that does the work that should be done in any professional if you like
10:58government of examining the processes and devising a strategy there was no strategy we came across and
11:07at the just before the election it seems that Kellogg put forward his strategy which was just to copy
11:15the Korean Korean practice that where let's have a ceasefire political discussions later afterwards and tried
11:25to implement the same thing on Russia let's have a ceasefire now I've been involved in a number of ceasefires
11:32negotiations they're complex things that to to provide you've got to make provision for when it breaks
11:39down it will break down how are you going to manage that what happens then how is it going to be affect
11:44the talks and none of this was done I mean they go like I you know rather can I say it rather naively to
11:54Riyadh and think that you just sort of flick your fingers and the ceasefire comes into being and then
11:59you put pressure on on on Putin to do the same but has no one listened to what Putin said on the 14th of
12:07January of last year when he gave the speech to the foreign ministry and he said very clearly this is the
12:15conditions for a ceasefire it involves the four or blasts that are now part of the Russian state they
12:24are not going to be they have to be evacuated from Ukraine that is the start of the season and he's had
12:32it repeated and Lavrov foreign minister has repeated it endlessly seems as if it was never heard so when
12:40Witkoff comes back from Moscow after several discussions personal one-to-one with Putin and he
12:48comes and reports back to Trump and he says look this is what Putin is saying you know we actually have
12:56to have a political framework first not later that is the political framework brings about the ceasefire
13:05and then the political framework can be elaborated in that context afterwards but without a framework
13:14without a basic understanding you can't do this so Witkoff laid all this out at the meeting Trump and
13:22what happened Kellogg get up and said Ukrainians will never buy that and what did Trump say nothing
13:35he didn't respond and he left it unsaid and undecided and this is the problem is the lack of strategy and
13:45the lack of backup did no one tell Kellogg do some work on what Putin and Lavrov have been saying about
13:53the terms of the ceasefire before we go plunging into an attempt to have a ceasefire seems not they didn't do
14:02it didn't anyone say you have to do due diligence is the Korean model the right model no that wasn't done
14:09either and this is really what's causing the problem in in in in Moscow Putin would like to get to a
14:17normalization of relation but on the right terms which is in fact a big picture strategic agreement which
14:27could include even nuclear weapons and arms limitation everything could go into that but of course that
14:35wasn't what was put on the table and so it is this failure by Trump to actually show that he will make a
14:45decision when it comes to the point and that he's able to impose it or enforce it within his team and much more
14:54importantly within the Pentagon where there are big divisions about and people there who genuinely
15:03may be wrong-headedly but in the the bureaucracy of the Pentagon believe they are trying to save America
15:12from Trump and then he has also the Europeans who are doing whatever they can to disrupt Trump they hope
15:21they can disrupt him as much as possible and that he will be weakened completely by the midterms and so
15:27they are acting strongly against him Putin is also waiting to see why doesn't Trump tell the Europeans get
15:37out this is not your business I'm doing this and why doesn't he tell everyone and this would be most
15:44important okay the ceasefire mr. Trump do if a ceasefire is started are you going to continue to supply weapons are you
15:54going to share intelligence mr. Trump president Trump has not even given those understandings after the ceasefire
16:02has been implemented that there won't be weapons supply there won't be intelligence share I mean you can't run
16:09ceasefires on this time in these terms where one side is stopping action and then another side decides
16:15to get you know I'm going to start re-arming and getting more intelligence so that I can strike Russia
16:21more more effectively this is the problem and it's the same for Iran you've just said no one really knows
16:28what the position is has he sorted it out he had a member of his team walls who's now been dismissed for doing a different policy it seems that's what
16:39um the Washington Post describes in their own article saying that was was privately having discussions with Netanyahu about an attack on Iran unknown to Trump
16:51who's running this and what's the policy I mean and this is why Iran is going it finds it very hard to trust what's happening to know where
17:02is Trump really serious about a deal is can he sell it in Washington to the Israeli first in his in Washington in Congress in the institutional leadership in the deep state or not because on that depends whether Iran can take a risk otherwise why would it take a risk because what it means is another
17:3110-15 years of being if you like caught up in a prison I mean they will be imprisoned by sanctions by electronic means by their access to the financial system for another 15 years it's a high cost and what's the way out at the end of those 10 years
17:53um are they released from prison I mean it's not clear what happens what's the vision you can't just put people haven't we learned from Gaza you can't just put a people into a fenced off area where they have no access to the outside and say it's forever
18:10forever nothing's going to change you don't have any vision you don't have any prospect of release from prison it's a very
18:18lopsided approach to a negotiation well this is a good point though it's often pointed out that the United States as all the Europeans for that sake seem to lack some strategic thinking but as Alistair suggests the United States doesn't seem to be able to do negotiations either in terms of defining its clear objective and finding a way of implementing it but given that we're not quite sure what Americans want or how to get it
18:47on the on the nuclear issue though how what is what is Iran you think willing to to give or what is a possible meeting point because if the if the issue was no nuclear weapons then Iran said you know we're not going to have nuclear weapons and you know we can have these inspections as we agreed in the JCPOA but but given that there's all this other new demands which are still unclear what is Iran's position how do you of course you're not going to you know
19:17reveal all your cards right now but do you see Iran being willing to go to a certain extent to avoid a conflict or is there concerns that Iran might embolden the United States if it gives too much
19:30well obviously I don't know what the Iranians are what their strategy is at the negotiating table but you know what Alistair was alluding to I think is a fundamental problem in the United States and that is an ideological one the United States in my opinion it sees itself as an exceptional state the Europeans in their own way you know this Eurocentricism gives them special rights and
20:00privileges and privileges and they are more civilized in their own worldview and therefore that makes it almost impossible for them to concede anything to the barbarians the uncivilized the other whether it's Russia or Iran I remember when the the proxy war in Ukraine began I think it was it was the Wall Street Journal that put a picture of President Putin on the front page
20:29and said something like Russia goes back to its Asian roots and said something like Russia goes back to its Asian roots and he was wearing Mongolian
20:36armor and so basically the Russians are now Mongolians and Mongolians are of course you know this Orientalist narrative of violence and barbarism so I think when they have this world view it becomes literally impossible for them to
20:59to concede anything but because conceding anything but because conceding anything means a defeat for civilization for the right the just the superior and right now we're seeing Trump himself shifting back in Ukraine shifting back to where Biden was he came in hammered the Europeans basically said it's none of your business but he kept Kellogg
21:29he was part of the Biden administration gradually we're seeing Trump looking more and more like Biden right now he's not that he's not the same person that he was a hundred days ago when he's talking about Ukraine so how can Iran even put anything on the table because you don't know what the other side is maybe his tomorrow Trump is going to take an altogether different direction look at Yemen
21:59he's going to go after Yemen and defeat and defeat Ansar Allah what happened suddenly last night we discovered that he he accepted a ceasefire he he fabricated the the reality of the ceasefire he presented it as as if Ansar Allah capitulated that I think he used that term but he he shifted completely and now I think it's linked partially to his trip to the
22:29region I think it's also partially because he's been they've lost three f-18s more than 20 very expensive drones they've been spending a lot of money and they failed and that they've only killed innocent civilians so he hasn't achieved results but does that mean that this ceasefire is going to hold
22:48maybe two weeks from now after he leaves the region he will restart this war it this is this is the problem that we have with Trump
22:57the trade war right now the tariffs have gone up to 140 percent or 150 percent even economists even businessmen in the United States don't know what's going to happen many goods that are being in China they're in the ships they're waiting to see what will happen
23:16this indecision this indecision by a person is totally destructive but he's not making any decisions he's not moving in a particular direction so when you take all that into account I think for the Iranians the question is not what we what we can put on the table the question is what can we put on the table that won't come back to haunt us
23:46so let's say let's say let's say some element of the nuclear program they decide to set aside which reversing that would be costly and time-consuming and so Iran sets aside that say just as an example and then Trump decides two weeks later that he no longer wants this agreement the Iranian nuclear program is harmed and they get nothing for it
24:16they're not going to go away this box that's not going to go away this box that Alistair is speaking of with or without the nuclear agreement the Americans are not going to remove the bulk of the sanctions most of them go back to Congress and Congress is not going to remove those sanctions just like Russia most of the sanctions on Russia are never going to go away that's just not how Congress works when Nelson Mandela was in jail he was terrorist according to US law
24:46he became president he was still a terrorist he retired from politics he was still a terrorist I think it was in 2009 or 10 or so that they finally removed him from the terror list in the United States that's how Congress works so I don't think there's much that Trump can offer on the one hand so what does Iran put on the table and then because it's unclear where Trump is going to go tomorrow that which the Iranians can put on the table
25:15has to be very limited because they don't want to have an agreement which comes back to haunt them it's very difficult I feel I feel I feel that the Iranian negotiators are really they really can't count on anything coming from Washington under these circumstances
25:36it's interesting this that the Trump administration they do this deliberately he they actually said many times that
25:45having a strategic uncertainty is a good thing because your opponents won't know what to expect but this might be good in negotiations when you're selling real estate but in politics it's quite destructive same as with the tariffs none of your domestic producers going to make any significant investments if they don't know what's coming down you know five ten years on the road or 20 minutes with Trump and I guess it's the same with
26:10yeah this war is trying to negotiate be it the conflict with Iran or the actual war with Russia
26:17I think this is not uncertainty I think they portray it as such you know the art of the deal but in reality I think this is just chaos
26:26no one's behind the wheel yes well negotiations do become more difficult and Alistair I
26:34I just like to say something about this because I think it's important I know that Trump is being criticized quite wisely everywhere about chaos but in terms of the economic situation I do think he had a plan
26:55it's not a plan a vision that the United States needs an economic rebalancing
27:02in truth it was not just necessary it was inevitable because it was on the path either to a slow slow bankruptcy or a quick bankruptcy
27:14and I know there was a team that had been working on it vote and other people who was the former head of the office of budget management before have been working on it for some time that doesn't mean it is going to succeed or it is the right plan there are a lot of different views about this but nonetheless there was a vision in the world people who were looking and working and thinking it through
27:41thinking it through in a very thorough way on the foreign policy we've now moved to the point where you know he's got a divided team so who's doing the negotiating with Russia Trump I mean Trump sends a message to Putin via Witkow and then as the Russians say Mr. Putin sends a message back via Witkow
28:10it's you know it's not a very good way of managing a strategic complex strategic decision making on something like Russia or Iran that there isn't so foreign policy is different in this case from the domestic policy where I think Trump feels more assured and feels more confident that he has ideas he does on tariffs he's had these ideas before
28:4040 years or more and he's developed them over the time on foreign policy he's weak I mean his background is if you like the circles of New York and particularly the circles associated with Israel in New York Witkow has no background in the region he's a real estate man he's obviously quite he's obviously clever he's obviously capable
29:10and also he's very intelligent that you have to know he's a real estate man are the first one that you've seen his conduct when he's very involved in his Daniel
29:17you know he's a lot of professionalism and he has a lot of professionalism but he has a lot ofๅงๅง's and the other people who have believed in his role in his role in the world and he's the last of the longammar
29:26And unless you know that and how it worked out, you can't take it forward.
29:30So, again, there's a difference between his domestic and his other.
29:36And the domestic economic one is his priority, not the foreign policy,
29:41because that's what the mandate was about.
29:44It was about bringing jobs back to America.
29:48The peace, that he's a man of peace, I mean, I'm sure it sat well.
29:53Now, part of his constituency doesn't want forever wars, doesn't want war with Iran.
30:00The populists don't.
30:01Some people have begun to speak up about that and say that.
30:05They also don't trust the way in which they're managing the Russian.
30:11So, within the populist wing, there is a certain amount of pushback coming.
30:18And a factor of all of this is, you know, the confidence in Israel has been declining sharply.
30:27The polls have shown, even amongst that generation, particularly amongst young, it's changed.
30:34But even amongst the older generation, you know, who watched that film Exodus and are pro-Israeli,
30:40even for them, you know, what they see in Gaza is unbearable.
30:46And so, it is changing.
30:49Is it going to be enough to bring about a fundamental change in the paradigm regarding Iran,
30:56away from the sort of siege idea that Iran can be just kept contained in a siege for now and forevermore,
31:07as Israel would like, or neutered?
31:11We have to wait and see.
31:13But the point is, it's not about 3.67 enrichment, 20 percent enrichment.
31:20It's about what is the balance of power in Washington, whether Trump is capable of, if you like,
31:31bringing this to a normalization or not.
31:37The domestic economic issues.
31:40I do have some empathy there because everyone seems to recognize it was going the wrong direction,
31:45yet nobody wants a disruption to the status quo.
31:48But I also want to ask on the foreign policy issue,
31:54this is another nice comparison between Russia and Iran.
31:57That is, one doesn't always get the impression that Trump is willing to take into consideration
32:03the security concern of the opponent.
32:05I mean, both, as Al-Sukruq argued, you know, many people are waking up now to what's happening in Gaza,
32:11but yet nobody wants to address the actual grievances of Iran.
32:16No one wants to discuss what has been done to Iran over the past, well, 45 years,
32:21especially, well, we can go much further back, 53.
32:24Nobody wants to talk about, you know, Syria, Gaza, what's happening in Yemen.
32:28We see something similar in Russia.
32:31No one wants to discuss whether or not this was a good European security architecture,
32:36to just gradually march NATO towards Russian borders.
32:39Yet it seems that all negotiations, what the U.S. is willing to give in return,
32:44is maybe some sanction relief, which probably won't come anyway.
32:48So it will stop punishing you if you do as you're told.
32:51But how do you explain this lack of recognition, though, for the security concerns of their opponents?
32:58Is this just ignorance, or is this a hegemonic impulse that we don't care about what others want?
33:04Or how do you interpret this?
33:06The arrogance of power.
33:08I think that, to a large degree, as I said earlier, it is ideological.
33:14But I also think that they are still stuck in the past.
33:17I think these people still see the world as it was in the 1990s and three decades ago,
33:27the end of history, as Alistair alluded to briefly earlier on.
33:32And they can't recognize, they don't recognize how fast the world is changing.
33:39So Alistair was speaking about putting people in a box, putting Iran in a box,
33:44putting Gaza in a box, suffocating people.
33:48But what the United States has done, because it is unwilling to even give concessions to...
33:57Right now it has multiple problems.
34:00Internally aside, internal issues aside, it has Russia, it has Iran, it has China,
34:06alongside its other issues.
34:08Iran meaning West Asia, the resistance.
34:10It is unwilling to even solve, make sacrifices or concessions for even one of these three
34:19in order to put more pressure on the other two.
34:22You would think that Trump, if he wanted to put more pressure on the axis of resistance and on Iran,
34:30that he would succeed or he would be highly motivated to come to some sort of rapprochement with Russia
34:37or to at least to ease tensions, to give the concessions that Russia demands to end this,
34:44so that he could focus on Iran and on China or the other way around.
34:49But he won't do that.
34:51He simultaneously is unwilling to step back, whether it's because he's weak, whether it's because that's just...
34:59Because we don't know who Trump really is.
35:01I don't know what he's going to say tomorrow about any of these issues.
35:06But whether he's weak, whether he's under pressure, whether it's the people around him are divided,
35:12whether it's the...
35:12All of these together, he can't make these decisions.
35:17He's unwilling to do so.
35:18And I think that is because the United States just does not want to concede ground.
35:23Even though the U.S. Secretary of State recently spoke about a multipolar order,
35:30or whatever that means, I don't think he really believes it.
35:35That's just lip service.
35:36But at the end of the day, you know, it's America, you know, Trump even said,
35:42I didn't see this myself, but apparently he said that he's sort of like ruling the world and he enjoys it.
35:49They see it that way.
35:50Even if they don't believe it, that's what they say to one another.
35:55The media says it.
35:56It's repeated.
35:57It's this echo chamber.
35:58And maybe I'm inside that echo chamber.
36:01Maybe I don't really believe it.
36:02But that's what everyone else is saying.
36:04So I sort of repeat the same statements.
36:08That's how I see it, at least.
36:10Well, yeah, on that note, we should wrap it up.
36:14But it is...
36:14I want to thank both my guests, Alistair Crook and Professor Seed Marandi,
36:20because this is a very important topic.
36:22We could have spent an entire different show just talking about the negotiations with China.
36:27But it seems to be a common theme here, though, that there is an inability to, or a struggle at least,
36:32to negotiate with key adversaries as they seem to transition into a multipolar world,
36:37but nonetheless not wanting to see their opponents as equals.
36:41So thank you to my guests, and, yeah, thank you for watching.