14 Day Outlook presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, and welcome to the Met Office 14-day outlook, in which we take a peek at the most
00:05likely weather patterns affecting the UK up to around Good Friday.
00:09And at the moment, we've got high pressure across the UK.
00:13That's bringing an easterly breeze, a cool breeze, particularly notable along the North
00:17Sea coast, but a very dry airflow.
00:21Having seen some rain earlier in the day across southwestern parts, that's now cleared.
00:25High pressure reasserts itself across the whole of the UK going into the weekend and
00:29into the start of next week, just subtle changes in the position of the high.
00:32It drifts into the North Sea, then it drifts over the UK on Tuesday, Wednesday.
00:38That means that into the start of next week, we'll start to lose the cold easterly breeze
00:43and it will turn a bit warmer in the east.
00:46Conversely, we'll see a return to overnight frost because of the lighter winds by night
00:50and the continued clear skies.
00:53And little change as we go into the middle of the upcoming week.
00:56High pressure to the northwest of the UK, a bit more of an easterly developing at first
01:00and then more of a westerly.
01:02So yeah, it's going to be a settled week, plenty of warm sunshine, particularly across
01:07western parts.
01:09Some low cloud will turn up from time to time into the east of the UK from the North Sea
01:13and certainly a cold wind at first before it turns warmer later in the period.
01:19That's the first seven days.
01:20It's very straightforward.
01:22And that straightforward weather outlook is reflected by this probability plot, which
01:27shows the most likely weather patterns for each day out to the next two weeks.
01:30And you can see the first seven days dominated by these reds and oranges, which indicates
01:36high pressure close to the UK.
01:38In this case, it's either a Scandinavian high or it's high pressure to the north, either
01:43case bringing plenty of sunny skies but occasional easterly winds.
01:48Then a notable change, Friday the 11th, Saturday the 12th of April.
01:52These blues start to emerge and that indicates low pressure closer to the UK.
01:57But how that low pressure manifests itself is currently uncertain.
02:01So what we can say is first seven days of the forecast, dry, sunny spells, plenty of
02:07fine weather.
02:08The second seven days of the 14-day outlook are likely to include low pressure and that
02:15low pressure is most likely going to be centred across southern parts of the country.
02:21It's most likely going to emerge from the south.
02:25Now this is the European model seven-day pressure anomaly for the second week of this forecast
02:32period.
02:33And it shows low pressure more or less over the UK, but particularly across southern parts
02:38of the country.
02:40And that means it's going to be very changeable, a similar signal from the Met Office seven-day
02:44pressure anomaly, lower than average pressure expected throughout a seven-day period.
02:49Of course, there's going to be day-to-day variations, place-to-place variations.
02:54But all in all, that means that for the next two weeks after the sunny start, low pressure
03:00returns for the second weekend.
03:02More changeable, most likely that means it's going to be very showery, still some drier
03:07and sunnier interludes in between the showers, but there will be some spells of rain during
03:12the second week.
03:13Welcome rain for many, of course, but with the Easter holidays approaching, not necessarily
03:18good news for holiday makers.
03:19Bye-bye.