14 day outlook presented by Alex Deakin.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00This 14-day outlook will take us right to the end of March.
00:03Will it be going out as it came in?
00:05Rather like a lamb.
00:06Well, there's no strong signals for the weather patterns
00:09for much of next week, as is often the case.
00:12Hard to predict the longer term at this time of the year.
00:16The shorter term, though, we are in for a change.
00:18High pressure that's been dominating,
00:20bringing plenty of sunny spells through this week,
00:23slinking away to the south.
00:24And low pressure, which is bringing
00:26wet and windy conditions to Spain and Portugal,
00:29will slowly creep towards us.
00:31And that will bring a change for us for the weekend,
00:33looking much more showery.
00:34It's been a very dry March so far.
00:37We are in for some wet weather over the course of the weekend.
00:40What about beyond that?
00:41Well, the jet stream's driving to the south,
00:43creating this trough, this dip, which
00:45is where the low pressures are sitting,
00:47but showing signs of pulling away.
00:48And there's just a little ridge of high pressure
00:50toppling in there.
00:51And that's the most likely weather pattern
00:52as we go into next week, with high pressure just sitting
00:55down to the southwest, generating the breeze coming
00:58in from the northwest, which will turn things cooler.
01:00So after things warm up this week,
01:02we will see things likely turn cooler, temperatures
01:05back closer to average through the weekend
01:07and into the early part of next week.
01:10Beyond that, well, the probability plot
01:13is a kaleidoscope, a real mishmash.
01:15No really strong signals as we go through next week
01:20with many of the different flavours of weather
01:22equally likely.
01:23There is a bit of a hint there that that darker to mid blue
01:26is the most likely probability.
01:29That's the highest probability, the most likely weather
01:32scenario.
01:32That's for a northwesterly dominated airstream,
01:35so the winds coming in from the northwest, which would
01:38keep things generally cooler.
01:40That's generally the pressure pattern.
01:42When you've got high pressure down to the southwest,
01:44the wind's toppling around that coming in from the northwest.
01:47That's the most likely pressure pattern
01:49through much of next week, particularly by Thursday,
01:51with low way up to the yet northeast.
01:54Second most likely pressure pattern is similar,
01:58but in this one, the low is a little closer
02:01and the high is a little further away.
02:02And the third most likely, that high
02:05is just a little further north, generating
02:07more of a northerly wind.
02:08So all of these would indicate temperatures
02:10will be around or below average through next week.
02:13So after a chilly week last week and a warmer week this week,
02:17we're back to cooler conditions, it looks
02:19like, for much of next week.
02:21And so even towards the end of the week,
02:23well, the numbers, the percentage chance
02:25of the most likely pressure patterns really dropping away.
02:28So as I said at the start, not a lot of confidence
02:31in the longer range, as is often the case at this time of year.
02:34But all of these pressure patterns are similar.
02:36They have high pressure close to the UK,
02:39which suggests our weather is going
02:41to be quite slow moving as we head
02:43towards the end of the month.
02:45So the most likely set up through next week
02:47is with that northwesterly breeze,
02:49showers across northern and western parts,
02:51some sunny spells, quite breezy here with temperatures
02:54around or below average.
02:55Further south, better chance of seeing some dry and sunnier
02:58days with temperatures after the warmth of this week
03:01back again closer to average or perhaps even a touch below.
03:05And then for that next weekend, the final few days of March,
03:09slow moving weather patterns are most likely,
03:12but there are no strong signals.
03:13So if you've got plans, you really
03:15do need to keep up to date with the forecasts.
03:18We'll have more in our 10-day trend, of course.
03:20But the most likely setup is for typical spring weather
03:24for the last days of March.
03:26Thanks for watching.
03:27Do keep up to date with the forecast.
03:28Best way to do that, subscribe to our YouTube channel
03:30or follow us across social media.