India is contemplating its strategy as to how the nation should react to US President Donald Trump announcement of sweeping 'discounted' reciprocal tariffs, which will be charged at 27 per cent of its imports.
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00:00Good evening and welcome. You're watching the NewsTrack. I'm Rahul Kamal.
00:04What is the impact of Donald Trump's new reciprocal tariffs on Indian consumers, Indian companies,
00:12American growth and on the India economic story?
00:16I have some super sharp voices from India and the United States joining me for this special edition of the NewsTrack.
00:23So, 67% I think you get it for the most part saying.
00:28Trump unleashes punitive global tariffs.
00:35Discounted tariff for India.
00:41Trump hails friend Modi, imposes 27% tariff.
00:48India impact set back or mixed back.
00:53Tariff shakeup opportunity for India.
01:01Decoding Trump's tariff plan. That is a big focus on the NewsTrack.
01:08Donald Trump has unleashed his tariff war on India and the world this morning.
01:14It's a mixed bag according to the Indian government.
01:17Trump says he's levied discounted tariffs on India.
01:20New Delhi on its part says it is examining the implications as it continues to engage in talks with the United States.
01:27So, what is the India impact? A big setback or an actual mixed bag or could this be a big opportunity?
01:42Starting tomorrow, the United States will implement reciprocal tariffs on other nations.
01:51Donald Trump and his reciprocal tariff rate card upended the global trade order on Wednesday.
02:00He erected new trade barriers around the world's largest economy, reversing decades of trade liberalisation and globalisation.
02:12As in the other Asian economies, markets in India reacted with alarm only to recover later in trade.
02:21The revelation that sectors like pharmaceuticals, copper, energy and buoyant and precious metals have been exempted from the tariffs energised investors.
02:31All these sectors are big contributors to the export kitty.
02:36Exporters in fact feel the tariffs could be an opportunity for the country.
02:42I think India is much at a much advantage. The opportunities for India will open and this is a high time for the Indian exporters to increase their productions, quality and consistency in the supplies.
03:00I think the orders will start coming to India very soon.
03:07The first phase of new tariffs on India will kick in from 5th April. The rest, 17% will go into effect from April 10th.
03:16They will exclude vehicle and auto spare parts as well as steel and aluminium which already attract 25% tariffs.
03:26Exporters feel the tariffs put India in a better position than its big competitors China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and others.
03:37Only 6% is quite consumable by the exporters.
03:41This I am telling because the tariffs imposed on the other countries, our competitive countries, China, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, I mean which are our competitive countries, this is much less.
03:58Whatever the advantage China had on the cheap raw material, that advantage is gone. I think this is good. India should be thankful to tariffs not to impose more.
04:13The United States has been the largest export market for India in the past few years.
04:19But what also made India a prime target for the tit-for-tat tariffs is the huge trade surplus India enjoys with the United States.
04:28Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi today landed in Bangkok for the BIMSTEC summit.
04:33In his absence, however, the Indian government is assessing the impact of the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States.
04:43In a statement issued this afternoon, the Commerce Ministry said it is carefully examining the implications of the various measures and is engaged with all stakeholders, including Indian industry and exporters.
04:55It added that the department is also studying the opportunities that may arise due to this new development in the U.S. trade policy.
05:03According to the ministry, discussions are ongoing between Indian and U.S. trade teams for the expeditious conclusion of a mutually beneficial, multi-sectoral bilateral trade agreement which covers a wide range of issues of mutual interest, including deepening supply chain integration.
05:21The U.S. is leading the U.S. and the U.S. is leading the U.S.
05:27India is leading the U.S.
05:29We will assess the U.S. trade policy.
05:31We will see how it will affect the U.S. trade policy.
05:33How long will it take for India to get rid of the tariffs?
05:37We are trying to get people here as soon as possible.
05:39What will happen to the government in the future?
05:43We will see what has to be done.
05:48Prior to the imposition of tariffs, Economist had projected a 10 to 30 basis points hit to India's GDP growth from the U.S. tariffs, in part due to export restrictions and in part because of the economic uncertainty.
06:04The world was on tenterhooks in anticipation of Trump's announcement.
06:19Hours later, there has been a geopolitical meltdown.
06:22Some countries have decided to hit back hard, others united to boost regional cooperation to counter Trump's plans.
06:28What will be the impact on global trade?
06:32Business Today TV decodes.
06:37On Wednesday, President Donald Trump ignited a global trade firestorm, unveiling the sweeping reciprocal tariffs in the White House Rose Garden, dubbing it Liberation Day for U.S. Trade.
06:50Markets worldwide convulsed Thursday as Trump's 10% baseline tariff on all imports, plus steeper rates like 34% on China, sent stocks tumbling and sparked fears of a trade war.
07:06The tariffs ranged from 10% to UK to 27% for India, 34% for China and a massive 46% for export-dependent Vietnam.
07:21The penalties hitting allies and rivals alike reversed decades of trade liberalization, pushing U.S. import taxes to an average of 22%, as per Fitch Ratings, the highest since 1910.
07:38Beijing and Brussels have condemned the move, hinting at counter-strikes as their stock markets hit multi-month lows.
07:46We have always been ready to negotiate with the United States to remove the remaining barriers to transatlantic trade.
07:56At the same time, we are prepared to respond.
08:01We are already finalizing the first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel, and we are now preparing for further countermeasures to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail.
08:18The U.S. side, under the guise of reciprocity, imposed tariffs on products from many countries, including China.
08:29This seriously violates WTO rules and severely damages the rules-based multilateral trading system.
08:36China firmly opposes this and will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its legitimate interests.
08:44The tariff war has no winner.
09:14Trump is meanwhile adamant that tariffs will liberate the U.S. from the tyranny of friendly nations.
09:44Our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.
09:53Meanwhile, businesses are bracing for chaos as supply chains buckle under the new trade walls.
09:58With retaliation looming, the world watches to see if Trump's gamble reshapes trade or triggers economic turmoil.
10:07Bureau report, Business Today TV.
10:37I want to go across to Prajal Bhandari first, to try and make sense for all those watching at this time, how these new Trump tariffs impact their lives.
10:56So we'll come to the impact on Indian exporters next, but just from the perspective of the viewer for India today, what Trump has done, how does it change my life?
11:07Well, yeah, like sitting in India, you know, we sell a lot of goods to the U.S.
11:13And now, you know, we would be charged an extra tax on that, which is higher than what you were charged before.
11:19And somebody will have to bear that pain. It can either be the Indian producer of that good, or it can be the American consumer of that good, or it can be a mix of the two.
11:30Our general sense is that the impact on India from this, at least in the current year, the FY26 fiscal year that has just started, will basically mean lower GDP growth than would have been the case if, you know, Trump had not increased these tariffs.
11:46If you do a very simple calculation, my estimates are that India's GDP growth could be about 0.5 percentage points lower than they could have been.
11:58So, for example, I was expecting growth to be 6.5 percent, but it could be 6 percent now, or maybe slightly lower.
12:05So there's going to be a road drag on the back of all of this.
12:09Of course, you know, we can turn around and say that, look, there's a road drag, but we can take care of it.
12:14We can do other things to boost growth. For example, the RBI, the central bank, has been cutting rates, and that's great for growth.
12:21So we will counter this. But the truth is that the direct impact, this 0.5 percentage points that I spoke about, is not the only drag.
12:29There's also an indirect drag, which we have to be very careful about, which is happening because it's likely that with all of these tariffs, because there have been tariffs across a huge number of countries,
12:40global growth volumes will slow. Generally speaking, global capex will slow, global growth will slow, and there'll be this big indirect impact as well.
12:51So one way or the other, my sense is that GDP growth in India is going to be lower in FY26, much more than we had thought just a day before yesterday.
13:00Pranjal, explain from your perspective the likely impact on different sectors of the Indian economy, particularly those that export to the US.
13:08I was reading research reports that say that this is extremely negative for Indian IT behemoths like TCS, like Infosys, like Tech Mahindra and the others.
13:17And that this is also bad for auto ancillary companies, which are exporting to the United States because those are likely to now have to deal with the wrath of these Trump tariffs.
13:25So what impact does it have on them? And how could it impact their fortunes and the fortunes of those who work with these companies?
13:33This is a very complex question, and there are many winners and losers, but it's also very fluid.
13:38We can discuss a set of winners and losers today, but if any changes are made, that set could completely change tomorrow.
13:45So from the news that we got yesterday, everybody was fearing that pharmaceutical companies will have a sort of tough time,
13:53because we are big exporters of pharma, drugs and medicines to the United States, and if there are tariffs on that, that industry could get hurt.
14:01But overnight, that was exempted. So today, the pharma stocks did very well. The pharma sector is sort of pretty happy.
14:08But on the other hand, there are many other sectors from textiles to autos to agri to chemicals,
14:16which will now face higher tariffs than we thought they would just 48 hours ago.
14:22And I think that that is a problem. But all of this has completely changed five months down the line.
14:27It's possible that in five months time, a new tariff is imposed on pharma and tariffs on textiles,
14:33which were imposed day before yesterday, are actually brought down, and then the entire mix will change.
14:38So I think this is very fluid. And what this basically means is there's a lot of uncertainty out there.
14:44So people who want to do investments in capex on pharma or textile, they all sit back.
14:50Nobody will do anything because things are changing quite rapidly with the stroke of a pen.
14:56So what's your advice to Indian consumers? Because we're being told by Trump and indications from the government
15:01that import duties on different products like cars, particularly EVs, is likely to come down.
15:08So what does that mean for somebody who might be looking to purchase a car in this financial?
15:13Should we just wait till the time tariffs come down? Because that would make, for example,
15:18an imported Tesla or a BYD or whichever, the car much cheaper than it is right now.
15:23Look, so two implications for consumers. I think number one is that after a very long time,
15:28we are proactively out there cutting import tariffs.
15:31You know, India was one of the highest tariff nations in the world.
15:35And in a way, we've been called out for that. And we're sort of like changing track.
15:39We are trying to cut tariffs. So over time, you know, while we do a negotiation with the U.S.,
15:44we may end up cutting tariffs on many of these, say, for example, U.S. automobiles that come into India.
15:49So yes, consumers can sort of think about that. That's part one.
15:53The second way I think a consumer can benefit, my sense is that inflation is likely to be actually pretty low going forward.
16:01You know, we're looking at a world in which growth is lower.
16:04Oil prices have tumbled dramatically in the last 24 hours from like $75 to $70 per barrel.
16:12I think all of this will put a lid on inflation, which has been a problem for the last few years,
16:17which is another thing which is going to be great for consumers.
16:19So that's a very short term view that, yes, consumers will benefit from slightly better purchasing power
16:25and access to cheaper goods. But having said that, overall growth, because investments are going to be pretty low,
16:32exporting is going to be quite uncertainty. Overall growth is going to be lower in this year.
16:37OK, stay with me, Priyanjal. I want to go across to Ashok Malik.
16:39He's on the phone line talking to different voices in the Indian government.
16:43Mr. Malik, your sense of how the Indian government is beyond what we've seen in the official statements put out by the Commerce Ministry.
16:50How is the Modi Sarkar viewing these tariffs? We've seen a strong, aggressive, visible pushback from countries like Canada.
16:59There's talk of a pushback from the EU. The Indian government seems to be trying to get on the right side of Trump,
17:06despite him punching us in the face with these tariffs.
17:10Rahul, three things. One, I agree with Priyanjal that there is an overall disruption to the global economy,
17:15which you can't really calculate right now. It's certainly there.
17:19And there will be a global slowdown. It could be all at once, or it could be like dominoes, one country after another.
17:26That is certainly going to happen. That is the absolute impact, the relative impact.
17:31There are sectors in India that will suffer. There are also opportunities that have been created for us,
17:36at least in the immediate future. For example, ready-made garments. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have been tariffed way ahead of India.
17:46If you look at iPhones and electronics, Vietnam, China both have very high tariffs.
17:53India is not the cheapest place to produce an iPhone, but its tariffs are now lower.
17:57So some production lines, more production lines can move here.
18:01Then if you look at pharma, we've dodged a bullet so far, but the bullet will come. I know that.
18:05If you look at rice, we have substantial quantities of rice that we can export.
18:10Both Thailand and Pakistan have higher tariffs than we do.
18:15So there are some immediate opportunities, while there are certainly headwinds as well.
18:20Why has the government in Delhi been relatively quiet?
18:24Quite honestly, if you speak to folks in Washington, they acknowledge that Indian diplomacy has managed to get in front of the line
18:33to negotiate a trade agreement with Washington, which Washington can then showcase to the rest of the world
18:40as an example of how its attempts at using tariffs to get great concessions has worked.
18:47Several countries, about five or six countries, are talking to Washington right now about tariff negotiations.
18:53There's only one country which is in front of the line for a full-fledged trade deal, which is India,
18:59which will certainly give us some breathing space.
19:01It will not solve all our problems, not at all, because we are living in a very turbulent world.
19:06Even with that bilateral trade deal, Ashok, the fact is that the United States is putting pressure on an overall reduction.
19:13If you read the US Trade Representative's report, he's objecting to non-tariff barriers in India,
19:18like the minimum support price for farm produce.
19:21No government, Modi Sarkar or any other government, can dare not touch MSP.
19:25It's politically suicidal, not just to make Trump happy. We can't commit political hierarchy.
19:30Even the manner in which the tariff figure for each country has been arrived at,
19:35the formula that has been calculated is a very dodgy formula.
19:39It's the economics equivalent of the Duckworth Lewis system, if you ask me.
19:43You take the trade deficit, you take the total exports, and you just use that to come up with a number.
19:50I agree with all of that. But if we do have a trade agreement, and talks in the trade agreement have gone fairly well so far.
19:59I understand in either end of April or May, there's a next round.
20:03It will give us some breathing space in a world where many of our competitors are actually worse off than we are.
20:10I'm not saying we are very well off. I'm just saying we are less worse off than many of our competitors. Let's recognize that.
20:18Daniel Block, what's been the reaction in the United States?
20:21I was reading a lot of commentary across Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times.
20:25The economists, they're just convinced that this is an absolutely disastrous idea.
20:31And Trump is leading the United States' economy and global growth towards economic ruin
20:38and the prospects of a recession now much higher than they were in the past.
20:43That does seem to be the consensus among economists, among manufacturers, and among many different types of consumer groups.
20:52Now, the caveat is it's too early to say.
20:55We don't have any polls yet that look at how the American public thinks about the tariff that Trump has just imposed.
21:02There are reasons, though, to suspect that Americans are not going to be terribly friendly.
21:07And that's polls that have come out before the tariff announcement show that Americans tend to be supportive of free trade,
21:13more supportive now, actually, in many ways than they were in the past.
21:16And to put it mildly, the set of tariffs that Trump announced are antithetical to free trade.
21:22So if that holds, we'll see most people oppose it.
21:25The other reason to suspect that most Americans are going to be unhappy with it
21:30is that the predictions economists have made that you just laid out about a possible recession, about inflation,
21:36there's reason to think that that will come true, that those will come true, particularly inflation.
21:42So as some of the panelists were saying earlier, the tariffs will likely be paid, at least in part, by American consumers,
21:49companies that are importing goods from other countries here.
21:53And certainly products that were made by foreign companies in foreign countries are now going to be more expensive.
21:58Those companies are going to pass off the increased costs, in large part, onto American consumers.
22:03That's what tends to have happened in the past.
22:05And as we know, in the United States and countries around the world, voters, people, they really don't like inflation.
22:12So that would be a reason to expect that it won't be popular here in America.
22:17Arun Kumar Sharma is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economies at CSIS.
22:24Explain, Mr. Sharma, why you feel that Trump's idea that this is going to lead to manufacturing coming back to the United States
22:33and America again becoming an industrial superpower, why is that unlikely to materialize, you think?
22:39Yes. So the answer is fairly straightforward, that setting up manufacturing is an entirely different process
22:46simply than the lack of a free trade opportunity.
22:52Somebody setting up an auto plant, setting up a chemicals plant, it takes a year, two years, three years, number one.
22:59Number two, the fact that in order to move production, you also need to have other scale economies in the country where you're moving production to.
23:08So you just take the garment industry, for example.
23:10The reason Bangladesh, Thailand, India, multiple Asian economies are competitive in the garment sector is because of low wages.
23:17Just because tariffs are lower and because you have higher tariffs, it does not mean that you will get the same low wages from American workers by putting up a plant there.
23:27So just because it's more difficult to export garments from here, it's not going to be any cheaper to produce garments in the United States.
23:37No, but Trump's argument, when I spoke to, say, Secretary Lucknick during the conclave, his argument was with a lot of automation and technology now
23:46and the proliferation of artificial intelligence, you need fewer employees and therefore you can do manufacturing through robotics, through technology
23:55at a scale which wouldn't have been possible earlier.
23:58So this argument that labor in America is costlier isn't something that they believe is going to hold back manufacturing coming into the US,
24:05especially high-end manufacturing.
24:07Yeah, see, the thing is very straightforward.
24:09If America wanted manufacturing in the United States, it would have done it independently.
24:16There is nothing preventing American companies or foreign companies putting up manufacturing in the United States today.
24:24And to the extent, and for the sectors it makes sense, foreign investment in America is even continuing today.
24:32So the impact that tariffs will have on moving manufacturing en masse is highly unlikely.
24:39Yes, there could be some cases where somebody was contemplating a move to the United States or an investment in the United States.
24:46That may become more economically feasible because now it is cheaper to get goods to the market from a US base than a foreign base.
24:54But that will be the limited, I would say, impact of tariffs on moving manufacturing.
24:59Since you're in the United States and you're understanding what's happening both in India and in DC,
25:04what's your best sense of by when you think this trade agreement, this bilateral trade agreement is likely?
25:10We've set a target for fall, which is, say, September to December.
25:13Is it likely to happen before that? Because there are some very serious sticking points.
25:16Like, for example, America's expectation that India can reduce tariffs on agricultural imports,
25:21which, frankly, from the Modi Sarkar's perspective is very difficult,
25:25as is the idea that they want MSP to be tweaked. Is that really just posturing, putting India's negotiators under pressure?
25:33Or does Trump actually think that Modi will do this?
25:36No, I think it's, you know, Mr. Trump, his long history, he's a very good and very thoughtful,
25:43I would say, strategist when it comes to commercial matters.
25:47He is a businessman first and foremost. And certainly I think this is an opening position.
25:52And that has been proved multiple times, including in the tariff discussion so far.
25:58He's gone and made some announcements, has pulled back because it's technical.
26:02And even if you look analytically at the tariff composition now,
26:07things that are politically and from a business perspective critical to America have been actually exempted.
26:12Pharma is an example. Critical minerals is another example.
26:15Things that really matter, he is not completely inflexible on.
26:20So my sense is that I think there will be a strong effort on both sides to arrive at a trade deal.
26:28The United States, like any other country pushing for its national interest, will try to get the best deal.
26:34And I think the Indian government is going to do the same.
26:38And the hope is that given the approach of both countries, if you notice the words used,
26:46Mr. Trump used very carefully the words that Prime Minister is my good friend.
26:53And India used the words very carefully that this is not a setback. It's only a mixed bag.
26:58I think both these are, I think, high level indicators that there is strong interest on the part of both entities to find a balance.
27:08But I think it's also, I would say, unrealistic to assume that just because of this friendship,
27:14the United States is going to give India completely free pass against the rest of the world. That's not going to happen.
27:19He said that Prime Minister Modi is a friend of mine, but India is not treating us right.
27:25That's the full sentence. He is also giving you a compliment on a rose from one side and punching you in the face from the other.
27:31But that's Trump and you are calling this a negotiating position.
27:33I want to spend some time with Harsh Madhusudhan Gupta on why this may be net positive for India.
27:38The fact that there is a lot of regulatory cholesterol in the Indian system.
27:42And no matter whether it happens under Trump's duress or the IMF's pressure, if we can ease out some of that regulatory cholesterol,
27:50explain to our viewers why you think that this might actually be great for everyone watching and for the India story in the medium to long run.
27:57First of all, a couple of things. I think on your television right now you are seeing India's tariffs 52%, reciprocal tariffs 26%.
28:09As Ashok hinted earlier, 52% has got nothing to do with India's tariffs.
28:14This number has been brought out by saying what is India's export surplus in goods to America divided by India's total exports.
28:23This has got absolutely nothing to do with India's tariffs. So the word reciprocal is a big misnomer here.
28:30The US used the term new golden rule for the new golden age.
28:37So this has nothing to do with golden rule. Theoretically even if India and America both had zero tariffs on each other,
28:43and Indian exports were more competitive and therefore had a bilateral trade surplus of let's say 50 or 100 billion dollars,
28:49that bilateral trade surplus is a problem for Donald Trump.
28:53So it's important to understand that this is not that India has to somehow separately reduce its protectionist or regulatory cholesterol.
29:01We have to do that for our own reasons. This is a separate discussion, especially on the regulatory side.
29:06Non-protectionism more broadly. Let us see for example, India actually has lower weighted applied tariffs globally than South Korea.
29:17So this idea, this fantasy that India is somehow uniquely protectionist, I think is completely outdated.
29:23All Indian industries are completely open. I mean people talk about India's automotive industry being protectionist.
29:29India's two biggest car makers are South Korean and Japanese respectively.
29:33But their problem is not about manufacturing by Toyota and by Hyundai in India.
29:39Their problem is that Trump's friend Musk can't sell his Tesla because of how high our import duties are.
29:46Which is why it has become such a major topic of conversation in the Trump ecosystem.
29:49Import duties are equally high for the Japanese and the Koreans as well.
29:53The only requirement to get rid of those import duties is to open a plant in India.
29:57So let us be very clear that there is no element of reciprocity in this, what was announced yesterday night India time.
30:04Number three, I fully agree that this is something very bullish for India in the long term.
30:09Because as Ashok also mentioned, some other countries have been slapped with a higher tariff.
30:13Although I strongly believe none of these numbers are likely to stay.
30:16There are numbers of 70%, 18%, 90% tariffs on countries like Vietnam.
30:21They are definitely going to be renegotiated. Trump himself hinted Prime Ministers and Presidents and Kings and Queens coming to talk to him.
30:28Which is why the non-10% tariffs are going to be applied on April 9th and not April 5th.
30:33But my one final point here is the broad idea of Indian geopolitics or economics.
30:39That we will do with the US what the Chinese did with the US against the Soviets.
30:44That is asymmetrically export to them in the second Cold War.
30:48That thing got a major Bayesian downgrade as an idea yesterday night.
30:53The idea that India can grow on the coattails of Cold War 2.0.
31:00And America will accept asymmetrical surpluses. That is gone.
31:04So let us understand what it is. This is not about reciprocal tariffs.
31:07This is about America saying we are not going to take surplus exports from any major economy, friend or foe in Donald Trump's language.
31:15If that is the case, let us understand I am in support of any trade deal or interim trade deal happening between India and US.
31:22Or India and EU for that matter in the coming months.
31:25But remember Donald Trump is the person who renegotiated NAFTA and made it USMCA.
31:30And he is now tearing it up. So any and his successor JT Vance is basically Trump on steroids.
31:35So let us be very clear that the idea that India can somehow do again what China did is difficult.
31:42We need to have our own views on software industrial policy, on defence industrial policy.
31:47And we need to get our own house in order. We are getting defence to GDP down below 2% in the last five years.
31:53It reduces our negotiating hand. And we need to be a bit more aggressive in negotiations with the US.
31:59It is fine as a first step to lay it low. But I believe that clearly all of that behind the scenes a lot of stuff is happening which Ashok and Arun know probably better.
32:09But yesterday's announcements as the initial announcement was based purely on a simple formula of export surpluses.
32:16All appeasement led to absolutely no difference for those 60 countries.
32:20So appeasement led to no difference. The thinking in the government though seems to be when you've got the schoolyard bully on a rampage in the football field
32:29it's better to be on the side not get straight in his way. Let him come down and find some way of being able to do business with him.
32:35Pranjal Sharma explain, Pranjal Bhandari explain what impact do you think this may have on India in the long run.
32:43If this is used as an opportunity and we heard it from the finance minister during the union budget that she wanted to take away some of the regulatory cholesterol.
32:52If that does happen, explain why you think this may not be such a bad idea for India in the long run.
32:58Yeah, so look, you know, I started by saying that I think the next year FI 26, you know, it's going to be not that great for growth.
33:06You're going to see lower growth. But, you know, if we play our cards right, my sense is that, you know, over time we can actually, you know, benefit from big changes that are happening globally.
33:17And I see that because I think for the first time in a long time, I'm seeing India doing a few reforms that I feel it was not doing in the past.
33:25You know, four things in particular, it's been cutting some of the tariff rates, bringing down some of the non-tariff barriers a little more than it was in the past.
33:34Number two, it's reaching out to different countries, trying to hasten trade agreements, not just the US but also EU, which is sort of like a fresh way of thinking about it.
33:45Number three, it actually seems to be a little more open about regional FDI coming into India, which I think can be a big positive in the medium term.
33:54And number four, on the rupee, my sense is that the rupee, at least in the last couple of months, has been a lot more market-driven, a lot more flexible than it was for a long time, which I think is good for sort of long-term fundamentals.
34:08So, I think these four important reforms are happening. And if we can continue with these, I think once the storm settles, India could come out on the right side.
34:18One area I'm really looking out for is basically FDI inflows into India in mid-tech sectors, labour-intensive sectors like textile, footwear, handbags.
34:28I think these are areas where we have punched below our weight. And I think if we continue to do these reforms and a big sort of area to watch would be FDI, we start seeing regional FDI coming into India.
34:41Can I, Ashok Malik, counter to say that the need to do away with regulatory cholesterol is something which everybody would accept.
34:49You speak to any minister, any bureaucrat, any top government function, they'll all say it. But we haven't been able to actually get it done.
34:56There's a lot of talk. Between that talk and actually making India an easier place to do business, they're two different things.
35:03Rahul, I completely agree with you, but that has nothing to do with Trump and his tariffs.
35:08If we need to be more of a manufacturing economy, if we need to export more, we need to enhance our own domestic competitiveness.
35:15For that, we need a more sensible interpretation of GST. GST is a good idea, interpreted horribly.
35:21For that, we need factor market reforms. For that, we need deregulation, not just at the union government level, but at the state level, all of which has been discussed and promised even this year.
35:34We need to do all of that irrespective of Trump. So it's not that before the Trump tariffs, we were exporting lots of stuff to the US.
35:43We were underperforming even then because of our own shortcomings. So that has nothing to do with Trump's tariffs.
35:49Okay. Harsh Madhusudhan Gupta, talk to our viewers about how you think the rest of the world is likely to operate.
35:55We've already seen statements from China, Japan, South Korea of these countries wanting to act more in concert.
36:02We're also seeing the EU wanting to push back. So what's the most likely geoeconomic fallout of what Trump is trying to do in the rest of the economic powers?
36:12In fact, I wrote a piece in Business Today in January called The End of American Financial Exceptionalism.
36:18So the dollar has been on a cyclical tear for the last 14-15 years. And this is finally the nail in the coffin.
36:25I mean, I think nobody yesterday was expecting these headline numbers, which Donald Trump basically showed in the Rose Garden in the White House.
36:33And despite that, for example, the dollar index is down by 2-3% today.
36:38So what has happened basically is we are likely to see the Magnificent Seven, the FAANGs, the big tech US valuations,
36:48and more broadly, the dollar get weaker in the coming years. And that's likely to be very good for capital flows into emerging markets like India.
36:57Because anyways, the cycle was due to turn. And this may be the final trigger.
37:02Let's understand that Donald Trump's election was the final thing that blew up the dollar.
37:06And this is now a reversal very rapidly, very similar to his first inauguration in 2017.
37:11So I think geoeconomically, America has decided that this is, in economics, is called the Triffin's Dilemma.
37:18It cannot take the shoulder of the global demand on its shoulders anymore.
37:24It wants to extricate itself from the system, however, imperfectly, which also has implications for the Europeans becoming more autonomous and security.
37:32America wants that. But if Europe becomes more autonomous and security, Europe is going to eventually become more confrontational with the US big tech.
37:40If Taiwan and South Korea and Japan feel that the Trump security guarantee is not worth the paper it is written on, you might see a Japanese nuke in three, four years.
37:49If India feels that despite any interim trade deal, it's not really benefiting from America beyond the point,
37:55you might see India also taking some steps, which is right now trying to reverse, for example, the Google tax 6% online levy,
38:02which we at least floated in the public sphere to withdraw as part of the negotiations.
38:08It's not been formally done. So all of the US financial reserve currency status,
38:14the US security umbrella, and the US trade deficit being asymmetrical,
38:19all three of them were intricately interlinked as part of a triad.
38:24So Trump cannot remove one of them or two of them with security umbrella and then not want the dollar to not fall.
38:31But maybe he and his team, for example, Scott Besant, they do want Stephen Meran,
38:36they want the dollar to weaken, not in a structural sense, but in a cyclical sense, so that some manufacturing comes back.
38:42However, that is likely to be unlike…
38:44No, but I want Arun Kumar Sharma to spend some time talking about how that one is what Trump is thinking,
38:50the other is how is the rest of the world, particularly China, likely to react, the EU.
38:55So explain how you see global trade as we know it, change and the coming together of countries.
39:02You won't typically expect China, South Korea, Japan, given their animosity to come together and act in concert.
39:08But Trump is creating these unique alliances or these unique situations where groupings are happening
39:15just on the basis of mutual interest and survival instinct.
39:18Mr. Sharma.
39:21Yes. So I think the two or three trends are clear.
39:26The first one is that there is a concerted U.S. effort, as other panelists were saying, to release the burden they have,
39:36the fiscal and the overall, I would say, financial burden on the economy to support other countries
39:44and have a more domestic-focused approach.
39:48But that comes at a cost of the U.S. position geopolitically.
39:54And the world is moving towards a more multipolar world.
39:58It moved from a bipolar world to a more unipolar world in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapse.
40:04And now it has been moving to a more multipolar world with the emergence of China.
40:10And then, you know, more other countries, you know, the formation of BRICS and then other institutions like the AIIB and others.
40:19And I think that this is going to accelerate that trend. That's point number one.
40:23Point number two is that I think from a purely trade perspective,
40:28I think it's going to give another major flip to the demise of the WTO,
40:33which was hoping for, you know, more globalized environment or more sort of inefficient
40:38but necessary regional trade environment, which is full of sort of people cutting deal with each other
40:43in the form of preferential trade agreements.
40:45You know, we are already talking to the United States.
40:47Other people are going to be talking to other people.
40:49The third thing that is happening is that given the nature of the world's manufacturing today,
40:55you know, there is no such thing as national manufacturing.
40:58You know, people are importing parts, supply chain linkages, markets.
41:03Everything is global today.
41:05And that basically means what tariffs does is makes this life more complicated.
41:10Today, I'm buying from 35 suppliers in 14 countries.
41:13How does these new tariff equations work for me?
41:16So I think a lot of people...
41:17Especially when products go back and forth across boundaries multiple times,
41:21as is the case particularly in countries like the United States, Mexico, Canada,
41:25where there's a lot of back and forth before the ultimate product is ready.
41:28We've had an insightful conversation.
41:30You've heard different very sharp perspectives to try and give you a sense of what to expect
41:34and also what happens from here.
41:36Ashok Malik, Harsh Gupta, Arun Kumar Sharma, Daniel Block and Pranjal Bhandari
41:40for joining me on the news track.
41:42Thank you very much.
41:44Today is day two of the fiery face-off over the Waqf Amendment Bill in Parliament.
41:49The upper house is debating the bill.
41:51J.P. Nadda, Kiran Rijiju led the charge from the government side.
41:54They were countered by the likes of Malik Arjun Karge, Sanjay Raut and many others.
41:59Here are the key highlights from the Waqf debate in the Rajya Sabha.
42:03The main objective of this bill is to bring about reforms
42:09and to properly manage the properties of the Waqf.
42:14There's been a lot of debate on this.
42:18People from both sides are taking part in the debate.
42:27There are some things that come to mind.
42:32For example, the government, the Indian government,
42:37under the leadership of respected Modi ji,
42:40has brought this Waqf Bill, this hope,
42:44and it is bulldozing somewhere.
42:47This is an attempt to make a sound.
42:52First of all, as the President of a responsible political party,
42:57I would like to end this bulldozing
43:01and oppose the narrative that is being made.
43:09And through you, through this debate,
43:14I would like to tell the people of the country
43:17that the government, under the leadership of PM Modi ji,
43:21is moving forward completely following democratic norms.
43:27No one should be seen in any colour in this country.
43:31The dream of India, under the leadership of PM Modi ji,
43:34is that everyone should develop, everyone should make an effort,
43:37and everyone should be brought forward.
43:39That's why we don't do lip service.
43:43We do real service.
43:46We do the real service.
44:17Who has talked about behaving differently with them?
44:21This polity has to be understood.
44:24And I will tell you,
44:2750 years later, 100 years later, we will not be there.
44:30But the course of action which we take today,
44:33that is going to make India stronger.
44:35That we have to understand.
44:38We are not here to hurt anyone's religious sentiments.
44:42A Muslim can create Waqf.
44:45The smallest nature that you create,
44:49every Muslim, even the poorest Muslims create it.
44:53You create Zakat, you donate.
44:57In that, no one has the right to ask,
45:01how did you do the calculations?
45:03This is your inner thing, your faith.
45:06How can we interfere in this?
45:08That's why, don't say this at all,
45:13that the government or a non-Muslim,
45:16is interfering in the work of a Muslim.
45:22Don't say this.
45:24In 2013, when this committee was formed,
45:28on 5th March, 2014,
45:32the committee was formed in Tehran.
45:34And it was approved by both the Sadrs.
45:37Then on 5th March, 2014,
45:40i.e. 25 days before the election,
45:43it was notified that the Code of Conduct was going to be passed.
45:47Then, in Hanan-Fanan,
45:49the UPS government,
45:51in the capital of the country, Delhi,
45:55the most prime property,
45:57123 prime properties,
46:00was denotified,
46:02and handed over to the Delhi Waqf Board.
46:06This property used to belong to which ministry?
46:10It used to belong to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs.
46:15So, think about it.
46:17The case was going on since 1970.
46:20And it's pending.
46:22Let the court decide, it's pending.
46:25You will hear the name of the CGO complex,
46:28I will give you the list later.
46:30Such a prime property,
46:32such a prime property,
46:34was handed over in a jiffy.
46:37I am a Hindu, or a Muslim, or a Christian, or a Sikh.
46:41I want to give it to charity.
46:44So, who can stop it?
46:47No one can stop it.
46:50And in history,
46:53I want to make it clear to you,
46:56that there was a right of non-Muslims also to make a Waqf.
47:02And our Prime Minister, whom I respect a lot,
47:05always says,
47:07one nation, one law.
47:09So, if there has to be one nation, one law,
47:12then tell me,
47:14that only Muslims can make a Waqf.
47:19What kind of a law is this?
47:21What kind of a law is this?
47:23And also to say,
47:25that Muslims should first become Muslims for 5 years,
47:28and then decide whether you can give Waqf or not.
47:31The property is mine,
47:33ownership is mine,
47:35I want to give it to charity.
47:38Who are you to say that you cannot give it?
47:41What kind of a law is this?
47:43This is a small thing, what kind of a law is this?
47:46I am a Hindu, a Muslim,
47:48even being a Hindu, I can give it.
47:50This is my will, the property is mine,
47:52you have no right.
47:54So, the first thing is,
47:56why have you made this a priority?
47:58We have heard a word since childhood,
48:01government, mother, father.
48:03Government, mother, father.
48:06Meaning, the government
48:08is the mother and father of the people.
48:11It takes care of them like a mother,
48:13like a father.
48:15But if a government
48:17puts its children
48:19on the throne,
48:21then it is not a government.
48:25It is not a government.
48:27It is a stepmother.
48:29It is a stepmother,
48:31her behaviour is like a stepmother.
48:33And the work you are doing today,
48:35through this bill,
48:37you are killing the constitution
48:39written by Babasaheb Dr. Bheemrao Ambedkar.
48:43And I am saying this
48:45because Babasaheb Dr. Bheemrao Ambedkar
48:48wrote in constitution section 26,
48:51freedom of religious affairs,
48:55establishing and maintaining institutions
48:58for religious and religious purposes,
49:01arranging one's own affairs
49:03in matters of religion,
49:05possessing and occupying
49:07unlawful property,
49:10and administering such property
49:12according to the law.
49:14You did not give this right.
49:16This right was not given
49:18by any Indian people.
49:20This right was given by Babasaheb Dr. Bheemrao Ambedkar
49:25according to the constitution of India.
49:28And you are snatching that constitutional right
49:31by bringing a non-constitutional bill.
49:34What all have you written in this law?
49:37How did you work to kill this constitution?
49:41This government is saying
49:43that this law is for the good of us Muslims.
49:47When I listen to you,
49:49I feel Sharma is speaking in a comedy circus.
49:52You are doing good to the Muslims.
49:54You are doing good to the Muslims.
49:56In both the houses,
49:58not even one member,
50:00in both the houses,
50:02except for Gulam Ali,
50:04not even one member is a Muslim.
50:07You are doing good to the Muslims.
50:09You are doing good to the Muslims.
50:11In the entire government,
50:13in the entire government,
50:15not a single minister is a Muslim.
50:17You are doing good to the Muslims.
50:19You have put two ministers in your houses.
50:22Mukhtar Abbas Nagbi and Sainwaz Hussain.
50:25You have ended the politics of both of them.
50:28You are doing good to the Muslims.
50:30You are doing good to the Muslims.
50:32You are doing good to the Muslims.
50:47You are doing good to the Muslims.