La economista Mercedes Carrasco explico que las recaudaciones en términos corrientes las recaudaciones crecieron 0.9%
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00...Telematutino 11 in the middle of the week, Wednesday, as always,
00:05grateful for the support that this intelligent audience allows us to bring to your homes
00:11through TeleSistema Channel 11, through our YouTube channel, Telematutino11RN,
00:16and through many other platforms that are seen in the rest of the world.
00:20Thank you again. Have a happy Wednesday. As always, we have many topics of interest.
00:27These are topics that you will not hear in any other program,
00:31and primitives that you will not hear in any other program.
00:34Our guest today is Ms. Mercedes Carrasco, a brilliant economist
00:41with experience as an advisor in many state institutions.
00:45She was Director of National Accounts and Economic Studies at the Central Bank.
00:51And, logically, the economic issue is once again on the carpet.
00:56The fiscal issues and the monetary issues.
01:00We have a short interview with Mr. Eduardo Flores Silva.
01:04He is here to talk to us about the status of Venezuelans.
01:09So, Jaqueline Morel seems to have caught the plug.
01:13Let's get started, gentlemen.
01:16Unfortunately, I don't want to address this issue every day, but I have to,
01:22because there is news that still has an impact on the Haitian issue.
01:29Yesterday, the senator from the province of Elías Piña, Johnson Incarnación,
01:36we have his photo so you can recognize him, he is from the PRM,
01:41and he is not from the opposition.
01:45And he stood at the hemicycle and said that in the Sierra de Neiva
01:50there is a Haitian enclave, a little hole in the Sierra de Neiva,
01:58where trees are being cut and planted.
02:02He said that at the hemicycle.
02:04But the most serious thing is that he says that he approaches the environment,
02:10and the environment tells him that they are not migrants,
02:13that they cannot enter and take out Haitians.
02:17So, any foreign Dominican who plunders a forest can do it,
02:23because the environment cannot enter and take them out.
02:26But then he addresses migration, and migration tells him
02:31that they cannot penetrate a national park, a protected area.
02:37Four rivers come out of the Sierra de Neiva,
02:40four rivers, because they are a thread of water,
02:43because it is an arid area.
02:45So, that is why I say that there is a lot going on here,
02:49with the Haitian issue.
02:52Depredating our forests, and no migration does anything,
02:57and the environment does much less with this situation.
03:01The government is not doing anything, gentlemen.
03:09Here there are media possessions, deportations,
03:17but the Sierra de Neiva is being deforested.
03:23And where are the environmentalists?
03:26They are worried about the Pomier Caves,
03:30but they are not worried about something as serious
03:32as the depredation of our mountains,
03:36which will bring with it the extinction of our rivers.
03:39Good morning, Jacqueline Morel.
03:41Good morning, Ramón. Good morning, Dominican Republic.
03:43Here we are.
03:44Well, Ramón, it is precisely of great concern
03:48that our protected areas, some, others not protected,
03:53but that it is Dominican territory,
03:54and that it has an owner, obviously,
03:58and that they are occupied by illegals is worrying.
04:02And that they are occupied by bad Dominicans
04:05who are depredating, in case they were,
04:07is also worrying.
04:09And with the same severity, the Ministry of the Environment
04:12must act, which is inexcusable,
04:14which is what the minister explains,
04:17because it is assumed that the so-called forest guards,
04:20that more than once it has been said that they will increase,
04:23precisely to protect the protected areas
04:26from the extraction of materials,
04:28from the depredation of the environment,
04:30in case they remove species from the flora or fauna,
04:36endemic or not endemic,
04:38then what is the work they have to do?
04:41They are not doing it.
04:43And this is a case that, then,
04:45that the Minister of the Environment, who denies
04:47that he has acted in consequence in this case.
04:51And then people have to be clear, Ramón,
04:54that when there is an invasion,
04:56or when they are depredating,
04:58where do they have to go?
05:00Do you have to report it to the police?
05:03Do you have to report it to the Environment?
05:05Do you have to go to the Public Ministry?
05:09Do you have to go to the municipalities?
05:12Where do you have to go to make this claim?
05:16And the government is not realizing
05:18that there are many claims at the same time
05:20on the same subject.
05:21He is nothing less than a senator of the Republic,
05:24who is not from the opposition.
05:26He is from the PRM, he is from the government.
05:28If they don't listen to him,
05:31because they don't listen to him,
05:33yesterday he had to stop in the middle of the road
05:35and report it.
05:36I hope they listen to him.
05:38Maybe a newspaper will be encouraged,
05:41Listin Diario, which always leads the way
05:43in these types of issues,
05:45or El Periódico Hoy,
05:47to make a report on what is happening
05:49in the Sierra de Neiva,
05:50with names and surnames,
05:52and we will see which authorities
05:55are competent to solve the situation.
05:58Because here, unfortunately, Ramón,
06:00we have to make a march,
06:02we have to make a scandal sometimes,
06:04a paralyzation,
06:06so that things can be resolved.
06:08Or more or less, a little bit.
06:10Because with the Dunas de Baní,
06:11they have done a lot of reports,
06:13a lot of interventions,
06:15and the problem is not solved.
06:17So, we will have to see
06:19who is the one who is called
06:20to put the lid on the pomegranate.
06:22Also, in the case,
06:24that now we know,
06:25thanks to an organization
06:27and thanks to Intran,
06:29gentlemen, 60% of the motorists
06:32in the Gran Santo Domingo are Haitian,
06:34who, of course, are undocumented,
06:37they don't have a license.
06:39Intran has already given
06:41the information to migration,
06:43even the information to
06:45the motorists with the plate number,
06:48let's see if they leave
06:50the tire and the bag,
06:52because now what they do is
06:53they take two motorists,
06:55they picket them,
06:57there is a photo on the networks,
06:59I saw it right now on TikTok,
07:01of two police officers
07:03arresting two Haitian motorists,
07:05asking them for money.
07:07That is, it is not possible
07:09that an illegal foreigner,
07:11whether Haitian, Venezuelan,
07:13whatever,
07:16is working without documentation,
07:21without a license,
07:23that violates the law.
07:25Yes, look, you refer, Ramon,
07:27to a foundation called
07:29Fundación Movilidad Vial Dominicana Movido,
07:32which is the one that gives the alert
07:34on this opportunity,
07:35but since mid-2024
07:38the presence of Haitians
07:42and illegals
07:44who are driving
07:46not only motorcycles,
07:49but also public transport vehicles,
07:52urban and interurban transport.
07:55So, it was even reported
07:58that some of the most recognized
08:00transport associations here
08:03were hiring Haitian drivers.
08:07So now Movilidad Vial Dominicana Movido says
08:10that 60% of the motorcyclists
08:12who operate in concho or mototaxi stops
08:15are of foreign nationality.
08:17But there is an issue.
08:19That is in the great Santo Domingo.
08:22Look, there was an investigation
08:24that was carried out in Cristo Rey, Capotillo,
08:26La Cañita, Arroyo Hondo,
08:28La Pulla, Barrio 27 de Febrero,
08:30Villa Mella, Avenida López de Vega, etc.
08:32Well, some of the subway stops.
08:36But that extends,
08:37that's what Movido says.
08:39But already in October of last year
08:41it was reported
08:43that the passengers
08:45and the Dominican drivers
08:47were reporting the presence of pirates.
08:50That I don't know,
08:51you know how jealous they are
08:54and the trade unions
08:56with the issue of who enters a route.
08:59They take them out in a bad way.
09:01Here, the one who has a car
09:03and wants to conch,
09:05wants to earn a few pesos,
09:07they intercept him and don't let him go.
09:09And he has to affiliate.
09:11And he has to affiliate if he has to pay.
09:13So, the complaint is worth everything.
09:16First, because they have to have the documents in order.
09:19Second, because that vehicle
09:22has to meet the requirements
09:24to be able to circulate.
09:26I hope that is done.
09:28Not only in the engines, the motorcycles,
09:30but also in the cars
09:32and the so-called flyers.
09:34Third,
09:36imagine,
09:38the documentation has to have the vehicle,
09:40because you don't know if that vehicle was stolen.
09:42But it also has to have
09:45the identification
09:47and it has to have a driving license.
09:50Dominicans and Haitians.
09:52Or Venezuelans.
09:54Or wherever.
09:56In short,
09:58some inter-urban routes,
10:01because you are talking about Gran Santo Domingo,
10:03but this report...
10:05Yes, but there is a report
10:07that I looked for,
10:09that came out in a prestigious Dominican newspaper,
10:11where it warned that
10:13traditionally, historically,
10:15Haitians in the Dominican Republic
10:17worked in agriculture and the construction sector.
10:19But now their presence is growing
10:21in public transport.
10:23That was October 24, 2024,
10:26when that complaint was made.
10:28And they made drivers
10:30who say that
10:32to operate within
10:34the formal system,
10:36the driver has to buy
10:38a participation in the route.
10:40And some routes,
10:42which refers to the report of Villamella La Victoria,
10:44for example,
10:46the minimum investment is 400,000 pesos
10:48for you to be able to operate.
10:50And so there is a daily fee
10:52that is paid within
10:54the...
10:56within the unions.
10:58And the route
11:00is also for motorcyclists.
11:02So, despite this,
11:04there are statements
11:06made by UBIERA and others
11:08that say that the member
11:10has foreign drivers,
11:12but that they are all
11:14operating legally.
11:16If they operate legally,
11:18there is no problem.
11:20And to operate legally,
11:22I hope Juan UBIERA knows
11:24that to operate legally is to have
11:26their identity documents,
11:28their driver's license,
11:30and obviously
11:32to have a job contract
11:34if they are foreign drivers.
11:36Look, on the other hand,
11:38moving on to another topic,
11:40because we have a tight schedule today.
11:42Today there is a report by Candida Costa.
11:44Candida Costa is a very well-known journalist
11:46on the daily list.
11:48She did a crossover
11:50from social reporter
11:52to economic reporter,
11:54and she gives a lot of information.
11:56She is anticipating something
11:58that is going to happen with the type of change,
12:00but not because of what she says.
12:02But she says that she gives signs
12:04of giving up on the market.
12:06You let me. I will tell you why
12:08it is going to go down, but it is not going to go down
12:10if it is not a topic
12:12that we are going to deal with with the guest.
12:14She says that because there are
12:16many reserves,
12:18there are 14 billion in reserves,
12:20the reserve went down to 12.
12:22What is more reserve now
12:24that entered in January?
12:26That 45 billion will enter
12:28the economy?
12:30That should be seen. No.
12:32It will go down because
12:34a series of measures have been taken,
12:36the Monetary Board, that have not been published.
12:38I do not know why they have not been published.
12:40I'm going to try to explain it
12:42quickly in a simple language.
12:44First,
12:46to those who are not
12:48currency generators,
12:50let's say importers,
12:52that before the bank could
12:54lend up to 50%
12:56of the cash
12:58in dollars, now you can only
13:00lend 25%.
13:02And it went down by half.
13:04I think that is a prudential measure
13:06because if you have a type of exchange
13:08that is going up,
13:10that creditor
13:12that does not generate dollars,
13:14then you can have problems.
13:16Another decision was taken,
13:18which is a pinch
13:20to the bank.
13:22Banks must have a long position
13:24in dollars, that is,
13:26more assets than passives.
13:28What are the assets
13:30of a bank in dollars?
13:32Cash, loans,
13:34that is, the loans they grant,
13:36investments.
13:38Deposits.
13:40No.
13:42The passives are deposits
13:44and loans.
13:46What is your asset?
13:48Electricity.
13:50Your vehicle.
13:52And what are your passives?
13:54The loans you have with the bank,
13:56the credit cards.
13:58Assets always have to be
14:00greater than passives.
14:02Until now, it was allowed
14:04that 50%
14:06of the bank's assets
14:08were the maximum
14:10of the long position.
14:12Now that has been reduced to half.
14:14What is going to force banks?
14:16Because they can't get out of their loans.
14:18They have to get out of their dollars.
14:20And there is another measure
14:22that still forces more,
14:24and that is that
14:26more provisions are established
14:28for loans
14:30to non-generators.
14:32I don't want to get into that point,
14:34because there I would have to talk about the index of solvency
14:36and a series of things,
14:38but again, the importer
14:40who sometimes takes a loan
14:42in dollars to be able to import,
14:44it is very difficult
14:46for the bank to lend it.
14:48These are conjunctural measures
14:50for a structural issue.
14:52That's why I want to leave it
14:54to our guest,
14:56who knows that much more than I do,
14:58why there are
15:00structural reasons why the dollar
15:02has had a volatility
15:04in recent days.
15:06And if you add, Ramón, those measures
15:08that could be taken,
15:10that you argue that if they are going to be taken
15:12they will also have an impact.
15:14Of course!
15:16It will lower the exchange rate,
15:18that's why Candida is getting ahead,
15:20it will go down,
15:22but it is a reduction
15:24that is not sustainable
15:26for a series of things
15:28that I will not go into more,
15:30but the guest can explain
15:32better than me.
15:34If Candida at the end says that the spread
15:36is approaching, that is,
15:38buying and selling,
15:40but for a day
15:42it is not indicative,
15:44we will have to see if the time is maintained.
15:46That will be maintained and it will go down.
15:48Don't be surprised if in a week
15:50the exchange rate goes down by 100 points.
15:52Why? They are squeezing the bank
15:54and the bank will have to get out of the dollars.
15:56But that has a limit.
15:58Finally, I want to present
16:00the photo of the child,
16:02Croldani Calderón,
16:04who is lost
16:06in Manabao,
16:08which is a
16:10municipal district
16:14in Jarabacoa.
16:16That is the photo of the child,
16:18he was playing in the courtyard,
16:20he got lost on Sunday.
16:22There is a whole movement of military
16:24and drones and things,
16:26but that photo has to be presented
16:28so that the public can see it.
16:30I hope the boy has not gone to the river
16:32and that he appears,
16:34but it's been three days.
16:36This period of this child,
16:38that mountainous area,
16:40there are many rivers
16:44and the public ministry,
16:46the national police,
16:48the Dominican army, the firefighters
16:50and the civil defense,
16:52in addition to the drones,
16:54ask to expand the search.
16:56What worries me, Ramón,
16:58is that the father says
17:00about the child who was visiting
17:02at his mother's aunt's house
17:04with a little ball in his hand
17:06and in a bucket to play
17:08and the father took him a juice,
17:10but five minutes later
17:12the child had already disappeared
17:14and they took him,
17:16they went to look for him immediately.
17:18Let's hope in God that he appears
17:20and that he appears healthy.
17:22Yesterday the psychiatrist
17:24José Miguel Gómez said that here people
17:26disappear, the elderly,
17:28the elderly adults,
17:30those who have mental problems,
17:32and that the child in many cases
17:34is a matter of kidnapping.
17:36There, maybe it was an open courtyard,
17:38he went out, he got lost,
17:40that's a forest.
17:42Let's pray to the Lord
17:44that the child appears.
17:46Finally, they missed you a lot
17:48yesterday at the lunch of APAP,
17:50always the attention
17:52of all the executives,
17:54and that, well,
17:56the numbers of the Popular Association
17:58of Arrey Préstamos,
18:00they have had a growth
18:02of 9% in their assets,
18:04they have dedicated
18:06their mortgage portfolio
18:08of 55,000 million,
18:10they had a profit
18:12of 2,186 million,
18:14it is the banking entity
18:16that has the lowest morosity,
18:18the number 2,
18:20and they have positions
18:22that are even competitive
18:24compared to the multiple bank.
18:26There is Arisa,
18:28Gustavo Arisa,
18:30always very attentive,
18:32like all the vice-presidents,
18:34in that bank,
18:36there are more vice-presidents
18:38than vice-presidents,
18:40they show that as an achievement.
18:42We are going to commercials,
18:44do not miss the interview
18:46with Mercedes Carrasco,
18:48economist.
18:58The interview of the Telematutino 11,
19:00important people,
19:02to address important issues,
19:04and what is more important
19:06than the economy?
19:08Because that is their pocket,
19:10we have the participation
19:12of the licensed Mercedes Carrasco,
19:14she is an economist
19:16with a lot of experience,
19:18she has been advisor
19:20of the budget,
19:22of the Ministry of Economy,
19:24she has worked for the PNUD
19:26and economic studies
19:28of the Central Bank,
19:30where she had a series of milestones,
19:32that I will not mention,
19:34and of course,
19:36she is also an articulist,
19:38she always posts
19:40very interesting messages
19:42with graphics
19:44about different aspects
19:46of the Dominican economy.
19:48Mercedes, good morning,
19:50thank you for accepting the invitation.
19:52Thank you very much,
19:54you pointed out in the previous section
19:56the issues that are really relevant
19:58to the economy,
20:00what is happening,
20:02so let's get into it.
20:04Exactly, there is the issue,
20:06logically monetary,
20:08but I saw in a tweet
20:10a very interesting
20:12evaluation of the fiscal income
20:14of January-February
20:16and the behavior
20:18of the income
20:20and of course,
20:22the budgetary evolution.
20:24What is happening with the income?
20:26Yes, and Ramon, if you allow me,
20:28I will go back a little
20:30and I will give you a brief overview,
20:32a synthesis of the budget
20:34for 2025,
20:36the one that is in execution
20:38and the one you mentioned,
20:40I will go to January-February.
20:42But the budget for 2025,
20:44which was submitted to Congress
20:46and approved,
20:48is a budget where a
20:50restrictive and pro-cyclic fiscal
20:52that will deepen the cycle.
20:54We are at a point
20:56in the economic cycle,
20:58January showed it,
21:00with 2.2% of GDP growth
21:02and February,
21:04it has not come out yet.
21:06When there is a gap,
21:08it means that things are not going well.
21:10But there are indicators that show it.
21:12So I wanted to point out
21:14that this budget
21:16is restrictive and pro-cyclic.
21:18It is a budget
21:20where the deficit
21:22of 3.1%
21:24has four years in a row
21:26and becomes a structural deficit
21:28of 3.1%.
21:30It is a budget
21:32where the regressiveness
21:34of the structure of the tax system
21:36is deepened.
21:38It rests more on indirect taxes
21:40than on direct taxes
21:42and has a connotation,
21:44we could say, of inequity and injustice.
21:46Again,
21:48there is that famous article
21:50that does not allow
21:52to index the salaries
21:54of the base of the pyramid,
21:56of the most vulnerable.
21:58So that means
22:00that by ignoring the tax code
22:02it is an injustice and in legal terms
22:04the budget of a year does not have the hierarchy
22:06to disable what the tax code says.
22:08In concrete terms,
22:10what is the social impact
22:12of this measure?
22:14Since 2017
22:16there has been this measure.
22:18It means that around 500,000
22:20workers are being affected
22:22by this measure.
22:24Unfortunately, there is no one
22:26who has a voice for it or advocates it.
22:28There are no trade unionists
22:30because they are retired by the state.
22:32It also means
22:34to take away
22:36from their pockets
22:38about 15 billion.
22:40We are talking about
22:42an unfair measure.
22:44And when you look at the other side of the equation,
22:46they are giving
22:48212 billion
22:50to the big companies,
22:52to the sanctions regimes,
22:54without any impact assessment,
22:56without any performance indicators
22:58and to the worker
23:00they are taking away 15 billion.
23:02So I wanted to contrast those two measures
23:04that are present in the budget.
23:06Also, the budget
23:08has a
23:10vocation of
23:12unproductive current spending
23:14where the increase
23:16of 65 billion
23:18basically rests in the increase
23:20of current spending.
23:22Current spending increases to 82 billion
23:24and fundamentally
23:26in four parties
23:2895% of that increase is concentrated
23:30in debt interest,
23:32which is totally money
23:34that does not go into the economy.
23:36It is a payment for massive debt.
23:38And now
23:40it has more relevance
23:42with the displacement,
23:44displacement of the exchange rate.
23:46The budget, which is almost 300 billion,
23:48that number could escalate
23:50because already
23:52on March 17
23:54the goal for the whole year
23:56of the exchange rate was fulfilled.
23:58Everything that grows,
24:00the exchange rate,
24:02means an increase in the budget,
24:04in the interest of public debt,
24:06up to 63.11.
24:08And therefore the deficit increases.
24:10And therefore the deficit increases.
24:12The Ministry of Economy, in its latest report,
24:14admits that there will be a 7% devaluation
24:16instead of 5.5%.
24:18So this will have a complementary budget
24:20that will have to increase
24:22the resources assigned
24:24to the debt interest
24:26because it is more budgeted with 63.11.
24:28So,
24:30the second most important party
24:32is employee remuneration.
24:34The third most important party
24:36is the issue of pensions
24:38and retirements.
24:40Remember last year's pension
24:42fest? There is the cost.
24:44This year it is already the third
24:46most important party
24:48to increase the budget,
24:50a totally unproductive expense.
24:52And the fourth, which is the black hole,
24:54the transfer to the EDEs,
24:56is the most important party.
24:58So if the 95% of the expenses
25:00that are increased this year
25:02are concentrated in these four parties
25:04that I have analyzed,
25:06and in contrast, the capital expenditure,
25:08the public investment,
25:10which drives the economy, is falling.
25:12It is falling in nominal terms,
25:14in 22 billion,
25:16and as a proportion of GDP,
25:18it is placed at 2.2% of GDP,
25:20the lowest level since
25:22Trujillo's time.
25:24There has not been a historical series,
25:26a historical series that, precisely,
25:28being in the budget, I built
25:30from 2030 until the date,
25:32until the point I left,
25:34and you don't see such a low percentage.
25:36So we are,
25:38from the point of view,
25:40promoting
25:42stagnation, not only in the short term,
25:44but also in the medium and long term.
25:46So this budget,
25:48roughly, I wanted to describe
25:50two points like this,
25:52from the impact it will have
25:54on the economy.
25:56There are other findings, but,
25:58as you say, the coyuntura deserves,
26:00and as there is another guest,
26:02let's go directly to what I posted
26:04yesterday.
26:06The findings,
26:08as we do not know February, we do know January,
26:10which is 2.2.
26:12That 2.2, Mr. Núñez Ramírez,
26:14is showing us
26:16what I proposed
26:18the first time I came to this program.
26:20The economy
26:22has not just recovered
26:24from the effects
26:26of the pandemic,
26:28the effects of the pandemic
26:30touched the foundations of the economy
26:32and it has become unrecognizable.
26:34And here is the sample.
26:36The economy is really a zigzagging growth.
26:38If you look at it,
26:40from 6.7 in 2020
26:42it went to 12.3,
26:44but organically it is only 4.3.
26:46Then it went down to 4.9,
26:48to 2.2 in 2023,
26:50and it goes back to 5%
26:52for the first time,
26:54organically, but it is a rebound effect.
26:56So if we realize,
26:58throughout the period of these four years,
27:00there has not been two years that it has remained
27:02at 5%, so it had to fall again.
27:04And that is what is happening
27:06because it is not able to sustain itself
27:08continuously.
27:10So this growth that was projected
27:12in the supposed macroeconomic
27:14of the budget,
27:16will have to be reviewed, reviewed down
27:18and reiterated,
27:20as happened in 2023.
27:22Now, at the end of January and February,
27:24then what you raised,
27:26the revenues, in current terms,
27:28only grew
27:300.9%, which means
27:32zero, current.
27:34If you discount the inflation, it enters the negative ground.
27:36And if we hide those taxes,
27:38we realize that
27:40the EBITDA, which is the highest indicator
27:42of expression of what happens in commerce,
27:44and in turn, behind the sectors
27:46which is the bond, is growing
27:483%, which also, if you discount the inflation,
27:50falls in the negative ground, but
27:52hidden by sectors,
27:54the sectors that contribute the most to the GDP,
27:56their collection
27:58in the ETIBIS is falling.
28:00Commerce is falling,
28:02construction is falling.
28:04Construction, as you know, fell
28:067.6% in January.
28:08When,
28:10it is said that as there is the
28:12economy, then
28:14if construction is falling,
28:16it is the sector that weighs the most,
28:1815%.
28:20The sector is facing
28:22costs
28:24from the point of view of the
28:26interest rate, which we know is placed
28:28from the point of view of the offer
28:30of the builder as well as the demand
28:32by the mortgage lenders,
28:34its level is higher.
28:36There is an increase in costs with the minimum wages
28:38that have increased,
28:40and also the construction materials.
28:42End to end, the increase is
28:44from the pandemic to the date of a 45%,
28:4626%, so
28:48we are in the presence of a private sector
28:50that is lagging
28:52in the face of an increase in costs and
28:54lower demand, and a public sector
28:56that should be pushing,
28:58so it is placed in the lowest point.
29:00So everything indicates that
29:02February will be worse
29:04or equal to January.
29:06Madam,
29:08for years the idea has been promoted
29:10that it is necessary
29:12to make a fiscal reform.
29:14The government presented one,
29:16once it swore in August of 2024,
29:18but it fell.
29:20Then it was insisted that
29:22another more consensual one was necessary,
29:24but the government has been
29:26consistent in saying
29:28that there will be no reform in this quatrain.
29:30In the midst of this panorama,
29:32there are many challenges, and in fact
29:34government officials said
29:36that the budget for 2025
29:38was made without taking into account
29:40the fiscal reform.
29:42You gave a speech,
29:44and in your statements
29:46about the fiscal dialogue,
29:48challenges and opportunities,
29:50you said that if evasion
29:52and the electric deficit are addressed,
29:54a fiscal reform is not needed
29:56that seeks
29:58122 billion pesos.
30:00In the midst of this local
30:02panorama, which we already had,
30:04plus exogenous factors
30:06that also gravitate in our economy,
30:08then what should we do
30:10and what is not being done
30:12to make it work without
30:14the fiscal reform?
30:16Yes, at that time
30:18that reform came to the table,
30:20and why didn't that reform happen?
30:22That reform did not have
30:24consensus because it was not
30:26subject to scrutiny.
30:28It was submitted to the
30:30Institutional Economic and Social Council,
30:32and I qualified the reform
30:34with three adjectives.
30:36It was aggressive, regressive and abusive.
30:38You know why?
30:40I'm not going to stop now
30:42to explain each one
30:44that justified it.
30:46And the reform,
30:48that was not the reform
30:50that was required.
30:52It touched on all the exemptions
30:54without any assessment,
30:56and it was taken away at once.
30:58It's not like that.
31:00Let's see one by one
31:02and see which sectors
31:04we want to promote,
31:06because that's the question.
31:08Yes, we can get resources,
31:10and resources of the same magnitude
31:12without touching a single tax.
31:14Without touching a single tax.
31:16It was only to place the payroll
31:18by 2019.
31:20The 100,000 employees who came in
31:22with a higher salary than the previous ones
31:24pushed the increase in remunerations
31:26to $133 billion.
31:28How much was sought in the reform?
31:30$122 billion.
31:32Only with that one fact,
31:34at the point of 2019,
31:36we already had the resources of the reform.
31:38That's one action.
31:40I can cite other actions that can be done.
31:42That unproductive,
31:44outspoken spending
31:46that happened with pensions,
31:48both the solidarity
31:50and the discretionary
31:52and the specials,
31:54which now lead us
31:56to the third most important
31:58party in the increase of the budget,
32:00is the issue
32:02of state advertising,
32:04which has been rooted
32:06as a state policy.
32:08There is the issue of rents, gentlemen.
32:10It is a party that flourishes
32:12as an important component
32:14because it would seem
32:16that the function of production
32:18has changed.
32:20The requirements that you need
32:22to provide that service
32:24in several states,
32:26we saw it in the greatest expression
32:28with the OPTIC,
32:30$1 billion.
32:32But it seems that it was old,
32:34but it got worse with everything.
32:36It got worse,
32:38and that party also comes out to flourish.
32:40Gentlemen, the issue of the electric deficit,
32:42no measure has been taken here
32:44in a responsible way
32:46to address this issue.
32:48$1.5 billion
32:50last year,
32:52the electric deficit,
32:54that explains 40% of the deficit.
32:56If we put ourselves
32:58yesterday,
33:00last Monday, Andy presented
33:02a study, I don't know if you read it,
33:04about the comparison
33:06of EDESTE, he says that there is no other
33:08distributor company in the world
33:10as inefficient
33:12as EDESTE, and its losses
33:14are placed at 58%.
33:16The interesting thing about the study was that
33:18he placed EDESTE versus
33:20CEPEN in the same region,
33:22and how one
33:24generates quantitative losses
33:26and another has profits.
33:28So why don't we let
33:30that part of the territory
33:32enter where you do have
33:34efficient companies?
33:36So, going back to the issue
33:38of the electric hole,
33:40that single measure
33:42would save you,
33:44obviously it won't be done in a single year,
33:46or in two, or in three,
33:48but it would be
33:50saving you 40%
33:52of that deficit that is generated
33:54only from the electric deficit
33:56of 1,500 million,
33:58and that has escalated,
34:00we came with a level of electric deficit
34:02of 500 million, and it multiplies
34:04by three in four years.
34:06So, I understand
34:08that if the unproductive spending
34:10is reduced, and maybe
34:12not being so drastic with the payroll,
34:14What is unproductive spending?
34:16Unproductive spending is what I'm pointing out to you,
34:18the issue of that
34:20super payroll, because
34:22when you look at that payroll
34:24per ministry, there are ministries
34:26that even double the payroll,
34:28so you wonder,
34:30what new service have they given me
34:32in these four years that deserves
34:34me to double the payroll in some ministries?
34:36So, being more rational
34:38in spending,
34:40being more, we could say,
34:42from the point of view
34:44of performance assessment,
34:46there is an issue of the budget, which I didn't touch on,
34:48but which is related to Jacqueline,
34:50the issue of the fusions and eliminations
34:52of institutions, they surrendered as if it were
34:54going to be a solution,
34:56it was even pointed out
34:58when the reform was presented,
35:00the state already did its part,
35:02its fusions and eliminations of institutions,
35:04which were a set of ministries,
35:06would generate savings of 25,000 million.
35:08I went
35:10to the budget of 2025
35:12and I found that none
35:14of the ministries that are fusing
35:16generate savings, on the contrary,
35:18it increases, only with the MESID
35:20and the MINER,
35:22the two ministries of education,
35:24they are 14,500 million more.
35:26That is,
35:28that savings multiplied
35:30by minus one, it is a waste,
35:32what is proposed, so
35:34you can't make public policies
35:36by announcing one thing
35:38and doing another,
35:40so it is taking us to a point
35:42where we really have
35:44the economy, we have not entered that quadrant
35:46of the external sector,
35:48where you were pointing out
35:50the part of the change area,
35:52because all this is expressed,
35:54because this deficit of the government
35:56is also pressuring the type of change.
35:58Let's take a short break
36:00because we have that part of the type of change
36:02and the behavior of the external sector.
36:04We'll be back in a few minutes
36:06with the licensee Mercedes Carras.
36:16The licensee Mercedes Carras,
36:18an economist,
36:20accompanies us this morning
36:22on Telematutino 11
36:24and we are analyzing
36:26the Dominican economy
36:28and now we are going to see it
36:30a little more connected to the world
36:32because factors
36:34that are not local
36:36also influence the internal economy
36:38and we are talking
36:40about the international factor
36:42and the type of change
36:44but
36:48I am also struck by
36:50what you have said
36:52previously,
36:54that there has been a bad administration
36:56in the economy.
36:58That's right, because it has deepened.
37:00That is, a bad administration
37:02that has been systemic,
37:04not only of this government
37:06but also of previous governments
37:08that have not been able to face
37:10and put things in their place.
37:12At least the previous ones
37:14left work.
37:16Exactly, now it has deepened
37:18and taking the subject of the work,
37:20there are some numbers that are dramatic.
37:22Ramon,
37:24when you look at the debt
37:26of the public sector
37:28as a whole,
37:30you have statistics from 1970
37:32until 2012,
37:34the country owed 26 billion
37:36and from
37:38August 2020
37:40to December 2024
37:42it was in debt of 29 billion.
37:44One says,
37:46and puts a drone,
37:48and with that 26 billion this country was built
37:50and with 29 billion you can't find a work,
37:52you have to look for a magnifying glass.
37:54With those two numbers,
37:56you realize what is happening
37:58with that massive debt
38:00that is not impacting the economy
38:02nor is it being reflected
38:04in any infrastructure work.
38:06That would be
38:08a program to analyze the issue
38:10because I made a matrix of source and use of funds
38:12of the public debt
38:14and it is clearly observed
38:16where the use has been greater than the current expense
38:18and that is punished by the law
38:20of public credit.
38:22You can't take and owe,
38:24that is not sustainable in time
38:26and that is making water,
38:28an expression of that is what we are living
38:30plus other parties
38:32that we are going to analyze in the external sector.
38:34So,
38:36the debt has been taken to finance
38:38the current expense,
38:40to accumulate
38:42reserves,
38:44to deposit in the reserve bank
38:46that no one knows what happens with those deposits.
38:48And finally,
38:50Fictitious.
38:52Fictitious no,
38:54it is being taken and it is a fact.
38:56For that, but to have a result.
38:58There is no impact on the economy
39:00because it is being used in unproductive spending
39:02which is the current expense,
39:04reserves are being accumulated, which are steroids
39:06to say that they are the highest reserves
39:08and it is being accumulated in the reserve bank
39:10that one does not know
39:12what it is used for
39:14because the traceability of what
39:16fiscal accounts mean cannot enter.
39:18So, the last use
39:20and the least is public investment
39:22and that is why it is the same.
39:24The external factors.
39:26We have little time left.
39:28There is a lot of talk that 45,000 million
39:30that direct foreign investment
39:32finances the current deficit
39:34and that it is not justified
39:36that there is depreciation of the exchange rate.
39:38What is the real reality of the income
39:40of foreign exchange?
39:42Very good question, Ramón.
39:44We have gotten used to
39:46listening to the absolute numbers
39:48and sometimes one thought
39:50that this was a kind of
39:52government publicity,
39:54a strategy, but that the
39:56public policy makers did not believe those numbers
39:58and that they made other calculations,
40:00and what is clearly observed
40:02is that foreign investment,
40:04as never before,
40:06those exports, as never before,
40:08that income from tourism,
40:10as never before,
40:12is dismantled
40:14when you calculate it
40:16as a proportion of GDP.
40:18Depending on the size of the economy,
40:20the currency sources
40:22have all fallen,
40:24except one.
40:26All as a proportion of GDP have fallen
40:28and I tell you,
40:30for example,
40:32the most emblematic case is tourism.
40:34Tourism, as a proportion of GDP,
40:36with 11 million visitors,
40:38as a proportion of GDP, on average,
40:40what is taken from these
40:42four years is less than what was received
40:44as a proportion of the economy.
40:46The issue of national exports,
40:48that measure of
40:50by air, sea and land,
40:52had consequences that placed
40:54national exports
40:56in 3% of GDP,
40:58the lowest point in the historical series,
41:00and it leads us to the fact that the average
41:02of these four years of the currency sources
41:04is 0.6 less than
41:06what was received pre-pandemic.
41:08Also, direct foreign investment,
41:10when you look at that figure
41:12of 4 billion dollars,
41:14historical figure,
41:16as a proportion of GDP, is zero.
41:18The graph is flat.
41:20So there is no real increase.
41:22Real, as a proportion.
41:24But what is happening is that the economy,
41:26as it is growing,
41:28is growing proportionally less currency,
41:30so there is a structural issue.
41:32So there I put on the table
41:34a first reason
41:36that there is a gap,
41:38a imbalance between the requirements
41:40of currency, which are many,
41:42and have increased, the issue of
41:44agricultural imports.
41:46Gentlemen, the rate of 0 was
41:48a wrong measure,
41:50a measure that allowed massive imports
41:52that were duplicated and tripled,
41:54and the measure of 0 is still not there.
41:56It is still being imported,
41:58and it is still being imported discretely,
42:00granting permits,
42:02competing with the national producer,
42:04and in fear, then,
42:06of the possibility of generating currencies
42:08with the national production that is exported.
42:10So we have there,
42:12from the point of view of that gap
42:14of the currency sources,
42:16this is the demand.
42:18And precisely when I came here,
42:20I began to look at the balance of payments
42:22in more detail,
42:24because I always like to hide the figure
42:26and see the flows in decomposition
42:28of P by Q, to see the volume
42:30and the price,
42:32because sometimes we are deluded
42:34by the price effect.
42:36And I realized several parties
42:38that flourish, that are duplicated
42:40from the point of view of capital outflow.
42:42The issue of direct foreign investment,
42:44the issue of portfolio investment,
42:46which are the swallowing capitals,
42:48and the other investments,
42:50have been duplicated and tripled
42:52the capital outflow.
42:54No one is seeing this,
42:56what is happening is subjacent.
42:58And another interesting finding
43:00is the issue of the counterpart
43:02of the remittances.
43:04The national remittances,
43:06the remittances of the Dominicans abroad,
43:08which are the main Ibiza account,
43:10which is the only one that has grown,
43:12and this is not a public policy issue,
43:14it is solidarity of the Dominican.
43:16There is no contribution
43:18or contribution of the public policy.
43:20The counterpart, the debt,
43:22are the remittances
43:24of the foreigners who are here.
43:26And basically, who are the foreigners
43:28proportionally who are working here
43:30and who repatriate those remittances?
43:32They are basically the Haitians
43:34who come to work in construction,
43:36who have entered massively.
43:38So there are two findings.
43:40The data of the repatriation
43:42of the remittances
43:44is duplicated,
43:46pre-pandemic, post-pandemic.
43:48There is a pressure
43:50of remittances
43:52of those workers who repatriate,
43:54because they are in worse conditions,
43:56what their relatives left in their country.
43:58So that generates
44:001,000 million,
44:021,000 million in 2024,
44:04of dollars that left the country.
44:06So if you look
44:08at the repatriated utilities
44:10of the portfolio investment,
44:12there are 2,000 million.
44:14So you start to add up,
44:16and there is an issue,
44:18not only of that balance
44:20in the account of goods and services,
44:22up, but down here,
44:24in the account of primary and secondary income,
44:26which must be analyzed.
44:28So I think that this issue
44:30of the type of change
44:32has many edges
44:34and must be put on the table.
44:36And with the threat of uncertainty
44:38that we are experiencing
44:40in our main market
44:42of tourism,
44:44in our main buyer
44:46of sovereign bonds,
44:48where the relations
44:50for each point,
44:52I am looking at the United States,
44:54for each point that the United States grows,
44:56the Dominican Republic does it in 1.7,
44:58in an elastic relationship.
45:00Now the opposite is happening,
45:02and that will not drag
45:04to a negative point,
45:06because the Federal Reserve of Atlanta
45:08may be falling by 3.7%.
45:10So the transmission channels
45:12of what happens in the United States
45:14are several, and it affects us directly.
45:16Yes.
45:18I don't know if we have time, Ramón.
45:20How can we move forward
45:22without a fiscal reform,
45:24and if pensions can be lowered?
45:26Two questions.
45:28Yes, really, the issue of pensions,
45:30I think that is legally,
45:32unless it is the issue of solidarity,
45:34that perhaps for a matter of,
45:36solidarity, but the others,
45:38if they are already granted,
45:40that falls into a legal plane,
45:42if you can go back.
45:44And how can we solve it?
45:46I think it deserves an effort
45:48to start working
45:50on a budget for results,
45:52and to look at each of the games,
45:54because here there are
45:56exorbitant growths of two
45:58and up to three digits,
46:00of games that previously
46:02were not even visible,
46:04and there is a lack of balance
46:06in the fiscal accounts.
46:08Who should do that work?
46:10It should be done by the Ministry of Economy,
46:12together with the Direction of Budget,
46:14and the Ministry of Finance as a whole.
46:16I mean, for me there should be a task force.
46:18In this special situation,
46:20the government should,
46:22and I think that was raised by Raúl Ovalle,
46:24and José Luis Ramón also joined,
46:26even at the level of,
46:28we can say, civil society,
46:30get organized,
46:32but really,
46:34the waters are turbulent,
46:36and we don't know if the captain
46:38will take us to a good port.
46:40In two minutes, Mercedes.
46:42I talked about some resolutions
46:44of the Monetary Board
46:46that have not been published,
46:48but you know them.
46:50There is a lot of enthusiasm
46:52that the exchange rate
46:54is going to go down
46:56without a hitch.
46:58That is sustainable
47:00and although it has been growing,
47:02the issue of dollar loans,
47:04the last increase in 2024
47:06was 1,200 million
47:08until it reached 7 billion.
47:10The macro magnitude of the
47:12currency requirements of the country
47:14could be a temporary palliative,
47:16but we already know that here there is
47:18a structural issue of funds
47:20and magnitudes that are not being visible
47:22because it goes beyond the traditional accounts
47:24that are being observed,
47:26but there is a movement in the accounts
47:28of distribution of utilities,
47:30distribution of remittances
47:32to the outside world
47:34that is impacting
47:36the exchange market.
47:38Also, Ramón, to finish,
47:40the measure that was adopted
47:42last year
47:44to begin to dismantle
47:46the domestic debt
47:48of the Central Bank
47:50was not perhaps in the best timing
47:52that was made,
47:54and that was expressed
47:56in the amount of money
47:58that the Central Bank had
48:00that later, through the reduction
48:02of reserves, lost almost 3 billion.
48:04So that sends a bad signal
48:06to investors,
48:08the rapid and massive loss
48:10of reserves.
48:12Brilliant as always, Mercedes.
48:14Too bad you don't have more time,
48:16but what you have addressed
48:18has a lot of weight
48:20and I totally agree,
48:22because there are figures that justify it.
48:24But let's not talk about
48:26the issue of treasury bonds
48:28versus our interest rates.
48:30That is another issue.
48:32It is also affecting the possibility
48:34of capital outflows
48:36that the accounts of remittances
48:38may be showing.
48:40Thank you very much.
48:42Let's go to commercials
48:44and see you in the final stretch
48:46of Telematutino 11.
48:48THE LAND OF THE SKY
48:52This interview was brilliantly done
48:54by Mercedes Carrasco,
48:56because it shows a different
48:58approach from what the government
49:00and the government officials
49:02are offering.
49:04With that, we conclude
49:06this Wednesday.
49:08See you tomorrow.
49:10Be attentive.
49:12Have a happy Wednesday.
49:14THE LAND OF THE SKY