Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ( IHSG ) naik signifikan pada penutupan perdagangan hari Rabu (26/3). IHSG menguat 236 poin (+3,80%) ke posisi 6.472. Sektor industri dasar menopang penguatan IHSG setelah naik terkuat 4,31%. IHSG menguat ditopang oleh seluruh indeks sektoral yang bertahan di zona hijau.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us, viewers, and now we will move on to the Spotlight market.
00:10Today, March 27, 2025, among the ISG that is strong, 3.8%, almost 4% to level 6400,
00:17supported by RUPST, Bank Himbara, then also BBNI, which leads to an increase in the financial sector,
00:22which is 9% stronger to level 4250, as well as the entire sector,
00:27as well as a 4% increase in the stock market, as well as a 4% increase in the economy.
00:31From Japan, there are foreign obligation purchases from China,
00:34China's profit industry in January to February.
00:38Then there is also from Europe, the amount of money circulating in February,
00:42as well as from the United States, there is a continuous unemployment claim
00:46and a quarter GDP of 4 years in 2024.
00:58And next, we will look at the MI10 Agenda.
01:01The auditors for BWPT will hold the RUPST news conference,
01:05which is scheduled to be held on December 31, 2024.
01:12Then there is also the RUPST news conference,
01:15the planning of PT Solusi Sinergi Digital, TBK and MEGA, the RUPST news conference.
01:27Next, we will look at the opening of the Asian major exchanges this morning.
01:34Asian major exchanges this morning opened Mix with Nikkei,
01:39weakening by 1.15% to level 37,588.
01:43STI Singapore opened to strengthen 0.01% to level 3,194.
01:47Cosmic Korea opened to weaken 0.71% to level 2,625.
01:52And Hang Seng Hong Kong opened to strengthen 0.6% to level 23,483.
02:09And to discuss this morning, we have been in touch through video conference
02:13with Mr. Hans Kueh, Capital Market Manager.
02:15Good morning, Mr. Hans.
02:16Good morning.
02:18Thank you for joining us.
02:20Mr. Hans, in the last trading day, before we enter the holiday,
02:25but if we look at the closing data from the IASG yesterday, it was almost 4%.
02:29Does this actually strengthen the uptrend pattern of the IASG?
02:32Or do you see the potential for a correction towards this long holiday, Mr. Hans?
02:40Yes, indeed, if we look at it, actually, this week we entered it,
02:44it should be quite safe,
02:47because at the end of last week, Donald Trump gave an indication
02:52that he would not impose too high a rate.
02:58It means he opened the door to negotiation.
03:01So, the decline on Monday was a bit strange.
03:05Maybe the market was a bit anomalous, but it managed to rebound.
03:10And we saw from the beginning, from a month ago,
03:14when we also broadcast on IDX Channel,
03:16we said, like in Danantara, it's actually good for Indonesia's economy.
03:21And we are quite confident that it will be managed by a professional team.
03:26And it was proven, the announcement on Monday,
03:28there were a lot of professional staff there,
03:31so it became one of the sentiments that raised most of our banks,
03:37our BUMN banks, to move up.
03:41Now, if we look at the increase in a few days,
03:44on Monday, we failed positively because of the fall of several large stocks,
03:51outside of BUMN, which is a conglomeration group,
03:55which once fell by 20%,
03:58which caused, when they rebounded, they failed positively,
04:02so that our index on Monday weakened.
04:04But after the increase in the slush fund,
04:08we think that today there is a potential for profit-taking in our market,
04:13especially since we will be on holiday for a long time.
04:15And our note is, in the last 5 years,
04:20so in 2020, the market was positive, 1.78% during the Eagle Victory,
04:28but in 2021, 2022, and 2024, the majority weakened,
04:33and it was more than 1% during the opening.
04:37It was more affected by the global factor,
04:40where when we closed, the global turned out to be corrected.
04:44Now, Monday is a big question,
04:47because on Monday, Trump will issue their pro-call receipt,
04:51and yesterday Trump stated that he would impose a tariff on automotive,
04:57and this is a very negative response in the US market,
05:00so maybe the market players will also take profit-taking actions,
05:05in order to secure the profits gained in the last few days.
05:09Okay, there is a decision that is quite sensitive,
05:12it will be taken by US President Donald Trump
05:15when the domestic market is on holiday,
05:18so foreign investors,
05:21maybe they will choose to play safe first,
05:24will take profits or realize the profits first,
05:28and this may be projected in today's movement, Mr. Hans.
05:31Okay, if we look at the upside of ISG,
05:35or ISG's significant strength,
05:37which was supported by the PST Bank from Bangbang Himbara,
05:41if we look at it from Bangbang Himbara,
05:44what do you think, in terms of price,
05:47is the valuation still cheap,
05:49and BBNI is also interesting,
05:51because there is quite a significant strength,
05:54what is the analysis for Bangbang Himbara, Mr. Hans?
05:58Actually, if we look at it,
06:00the fundamental of Bangbang Himbara is still good.
06:03So, yesterday, when the decline happened,
06:07it was more in the first factor, rebalancing,
06:10which was done by foreign investors,
06:12where Morgan Stanley indeed reduced our rating in MSCI,
06:17their index, to underweight.
06:20So, the rebalancing activity was indeed estimated until the end of March.
06:25Not to mention, Goldman Sachs also reduced our rating.
06:28On the other hand, Morgan Stanley increased China's rating.
06:33So, if we look at it, indeed,
06:35all over the world, funds are moving into China,
06:38their index rises, and our market shares are left behind.
06:42The second is, if we look at it,
06:44there is a negative sentiment towards Antara Funds at that time,
06:47because our Bangbinbara, which is combined there,
06:50got a decrease in pressure.
06:52Even though, from the beginning, I said it was not based on that,
06:56because I think that there is no impact on the performance of our BUMN shares
07:02when combined with Antara Funds.
07:05So, if we look at it, when there is an announcement
07:08that their performance is good,
07:10then the dividend is big,
07:12it will definitely be appreciated by the market with an increase.
07:15Okay.
07:16If we look at it historically,
07:20or a few years ago,
07:22usually, investment in the consumer sector,
07:24and also in the transportation sector,
07:26are usually favored by market players,
07:28and also discussed or recommended by analysts.
07:31But lately, towards the closing of today's trade,
07:35on the last day, before we enter the holiday,
07:38I don't see Samsung based on transportation
07:41or transportation infrastructure being recommended.
07:45Why is the banking sector
07:47becoming more favorable than other sectors?
07:50Historically, there is usually a significant increase, Mr. Hans.
07:55Yes.
07:56In the past few weeks,
07:59if we look at the foreign view towards Indonesia,
08:03Southeast Asia, and Indonesia,
08:05it has changed.
08:07So, they used to see,
08:10usually, before, if there was a trade war,
08:14people predicted that the funds would move to Southeast Asia.
08:17Then, in the current period,
08:19Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam,
08:23it is expected to be affected.
08:26There are also several domestic problems
08:28that are considered to be under pressure.
08:30But after a major correction
08:32towards the markets of some Southeast Asian countries,
08:36including Indonesia,
08:38it caused a buying recommendation.
08:40What needs to be noted is,
08:42actually, the Indonesian market did not go down by itself,
08:45but the Southeast Asian market also experienced a decline.
08:48But after the decline, the valuation became cheap.
08:52The cheap valuation caused foreign funds
08:55to start increasing the buying recommendation.
08:58And what needs to be bought are big cap companies
09:00whose valuation is cheap.
09:02This is what pushes the buying recommendation
09:05to be increased more by Bang Himbara,
09:09a big capital bank.
09:11It has been corrected quite a lot,
09:13but it turns out that the fundamentals are still good,
09:16the price is still okay,
09:18and the dividend is still very promising.
09:20This is what makes investors
09:22stick to the normative for sectors
09:25related to the festive season,
09:27such as consumer goods, retail,
09:29transportation infrastructure,
09:31and the transportation sector, more or less like that.
09:33Do you also follow the normative
09:35for the buying recommendation, Mr. Hans?
09:38Yes, there is always an open opportunity.
09:40So if the market goes up,
09:42everyone moves up.
09:43Maybe people's choice is
09:45which one will go up more.
09:48But when the big cap has moved up,
09:52it will definitely move to other sectors.
09:55So the movement in the market always revolves.
09:59Okay. After yesterday,
10:01it strengthened by almost 4%.
10:03Do you see the possibility
10:06of a significant correction today?
10:10Or maybe there will be a correction,
10:12but just a thin one, Mr. Hans?
10:15Yes, if we think about it,
10:16there may be a correction,
10:18but maybe it's not too big
10:20because we remember
10:23the relative valuation is already quite cheap.
10:25But because you are on vacation for a week,
10:29it's quite a long time from Friday
10:31to Friday when we are on vacation.
10:32Later, the next weekend,
10:34the trading will be opened.
10:36And there are some important events
10:38that are global.
10:39Of course, people will be a little careful.
10:41It means that Trump's policy
10:45may cause a correction
10:47in the US and Asian markets.
10:50So when we open,
10:53we will adjust the correction
10:55while we are on vacation.
10:57Actually, there is a gap-up or gap-down potential
11:01in the market.
11:02Of course, if people anticipate the risk,
11:05they will choose to take a profit first.
11:08Later, after the holiday,
11:10we can make another transaction.
11:12For traders,
11:14maybe they think,
11:15okay, let's take our funds first.
11:18Let's secure it first.
11:20Because if there is a gap,
11:23it is difficult to release the position.
11:26And maybe I think in this period,
11:28maybe there are many people who have released their positions,
11:31especially traders,
11:32because maybe they want to move their funds
11:35to make transactions in other exchanges
11:37that are still open while we are on vacation.
11:39Okay, I want to discuss
11:41about the sentiment
11:43that has been a lot of talk lately
11:46about the power of the people to buy.
11:49Does this also affect
11:52the investor's own taste
11:53to enter the retail or
11:55consumer goods market, Mr. Hans?
11:57Even though this is usually their harvest season,
12:01but there are a lot of narratives
12:03that are circulating that
12:04the money is also running out
12:06and the spending will also be limited.
12:09Is this a concern too, Mr. Hans?
12:11Yes, we have to divide the class into several classes.
12:15So if we look at the middle class,
12:19the buying power is still quite strong.
12:21If we go to the mall,
12:24me and my friends
12:27when we make an open event together,
12:30there are a lot of restaurants that are full.
12:33Even rejected.
12:35We have to move to several places if we haven't ...
12:37You have to make a reservation, sir.
12:38Yes, it's still rejected.
12:41So in the upper middle class,
12:43the buying power is strong.
12:44In the lower class,
12:46there is Bansos who helps to support.
12:49And some still use
12:52lending to support consumption.
12:55But in the middle class, it's a bit more hit.
12:59Because there is no social assistance,
13:01the PHK is increasing,
13:03so they have a phenomenal phenomenon,
13:06even savings.
13:08So there are two classes that have a little problem
13:11buying power there.
13:12So when an investor chooses an emitter,
13:17he will choose an emitter whose segment is suitable.
13:20Because the buying power is still there.
13:22But in general,
13:24there is a problem in buying power.
13:27Seen from economic growth at the end of the year,
13:30where consumption is only 4.9%.
13:33But this is actually not the government's fault,
13:36but it is the impact of COVID-19.
13:38When COVID-19 hit,
13:40the economy in Indonesia did not really recover.
13:45And there was a change in consumption patterns in society.
13:49And some of our industries are losing
13:52with imported goods,
13:54especially from China,
13:55which caused a PHK bubble to occur.
13:58This is what we hope the government can move quickly
14:03to solve the problems in this sector
14:06and return the buying power in the middle and lower classes.
14:10Okay.
14:11We will still discuss all the aspects
14:13that you recommended this morning, Mr. Hans.
14:15After the next segment,
14:16stay tuned with us.