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00:00For more, we're joined now by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics
00:05at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin.
00:08Thanks so much for being with us this evening, Scott.
00:11So Mark Carney's first overseas mission as it were, what exactly prompted this trip?
00:17Is it simply because of the Trump factor, as one observer put it?
00:23Well I certainly think the Trump factor is part of this, but part of this is where Canada
00:28is vis-a-vis the United States versus Europe right now.
00:33And it is an important symbol that Mark Carney's first trip was not to Washington to see Donald
00:39Trump, but it was to see Keir Starmer in the UK and Emmanuel Macron in France.
00:45We have the immediate issue that Donald Trump does not see Canada as ally.
00:51He sees Canada as a territory to be bullied at the very least.
00:56And of course, if you take his statements at face value, Trump wants to take over Canada.
01:02Now that's a great offense to Canadian nationalism, it's an offense to Canadian sovereignty, but
01:07it makes Canada rethink where its political and economic position is.
01:11And if the United States is not going to be your ally, who will be?
01:15And that's why you have this reach out to the UK, to France, and more broadly to the
01:19European Union.
01:21And I think one thing I found striking this week is that if you ask Canadians who they
01:27favour, 68% have a favourable view of the EU versus 34% of the United States.
01:33That's a stunning shift.
01:34And by the way, almost half of Canadians now actually favour joining the European Union,
01:39even though I don't think that's on the cards in the near future.
01:43Canada also, Scott, it's reviewing the purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets in light
01:49of Trump's trade war.
01:51And he's suggesting a little earlier that alternative aircraft could be built in Canada
01:55or perhaps in Europe.
01:57Is that likely, do you think, at this stage?
01:59Well, I think the immediate alternative for Canada is that when they considered where
02:04to buy the fighter jets, the F-35 came out first, but Sweden's Saab Gripen came out second.
02:11And that's an immediate option.
02:12They can go to the Swedes and get those jets while they consider trying to build up a domestic
02:16capability.
02:17But remember, you also have other alternatives, such as the Eurofighter.
02:21And indeed, this is not just Canada.
02:24Portugal has said, the Portuguese defense minister has said that Portugal is considering
02:29pulling out of contracts to buy the F-35, that it's looking at alternatives.
02:35There are indications that Germany may consider that as well.
02:37Again, I come back to a fundamental.
02:39For the first time in 84 years, since 1941, you have a US government which is not allied
02:45with Europe.
02:46It's not allied with Canada.
02:48And in that circumstance, Canada, Europe and other countries look at each other and say,
02:53how do we build up these capabilities without necessarily going through Washington?
02:57Yeah, because the French president also has been ramping up efforts to persuade allies
03:02to move away from purchasing those American military hardware.
03:07But Scott, the top five firms globally, they're all American.
03:10After that, it's kind of mostly followed by Chinese firms.
03:14In and around 27 of the top 100 are based in Europe.
03:18So can these alternative suppliers, can they actually ramp up production?
03:24And how long might that take?
03:27This is a long term project.
03:29You know, certainly there will be an effort to increase production capacity.
03:32But you're right, there are limits on that.
03:35But you're talking about developing the ability in the longer term to have a much greater
03:41capacity.
03:42I think what we are seeing is the potential for the greatest realignment of relationships
03:49around the world, including with the United States, since 1945.
03:53And what you're seeing, I think, is Canada, the European Union, including France and other
03:58countries finally taking a look five, 10, 15 years down the road and saying, we have
04:03to make these plans.
04:06We cannot, as we have done in the past, make the assumption of a US led NATO, a US led
04:11transatlantic relationship.
04:13So what you're seeing is certainly not something that will fill the gap that the US has provided
04:19in security for more than 80 years.
04:22But it is a start.
04:23And it's an indication that this may finally be a world, which is one in which the United
04:27States is not necessarily at the centre of where France, Canada or other countries go
04:32next.
04:33That's exactly the message that Mark Carney is trying to send.
04:36He's no stranger, of course, to London.
04:39Is it a difficult balancing act, do you believe, for the likes of France and the UK to show
04:44their solidarity with the new Canadian prime minister without, you know, irritating too
04:50much the White House?
04:54I think we're beyond balancing acts.
04:55I mean, think about Mark Carney.
04:57Not only is he prime minister of Canada, but he was governor of the Bank of England when
05:02you had the other major shock of recent years, which is the UK leaving the European Union.
05:08Now in the aftermath of the UK leaving the European Union, EU countries have had to reconsider
05:13their relationships.
05:15And now I think you have to be at a point where your first thought is not what is Donald
05:20Trump's ego, not will Donald Trump humiliate you in public?
05:24You have to think about your national interests first.
05:27Because if you simply think of Trump first, you put yourself on the defensive.
05:32You don't plan, you react.
05:34And I think Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and other leaders are saying
05:39we cannot just react now.
05:41We have to act.
05:42We have to plan, not remember only for the sake of our countries, but remember for the
05:46sake of Ukraine as it faces a Russian invasion, an invasion in which Donald Trump may have
05:51more sympathy with Vladimir Putin than with Ukraine's fight to survive.
05:56They have to act.
05:57They have to plan, as you say, Scott.
05:58But what do you think, in terms of concrete proposals, is going to actually come out of
06:03those meetings today, firstly in Paris and then later on in London?
06:07Well, I think you have a wider context here, first of all, which is that which came out
06:12last week in the aftermath of the humiliation, the attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky,
06:20the Ukrainian president by the White House, Ursula von der Leyen saying, you know, our
06:26goal as the European Union is 800,000 euros, sorry, 800 billion euros in investment in
06:35our defense industry and defense production.
06:38You have Canada, which is saying we have to ramp up with billions of Canadian dollars
06:43into our own security establishment.
06:46Now, it is not just a question of spending money on that.
06:51You also have to develop the logistics chains.
06:54You have to coordinate between various defense firms.
06:56You have to coordinate production cycles.
06:58But I think, again, I have to emphasize for the first time, really, that I can remember
07:03you have Canadian and European countries saying we're going to plan for this defense without
07:09assuming that the United States is at the center of this.
07:11And this will take place, by the way, not only in terms of the national level, it will
07:15also take place within NATO as well, which means we may have a far different NATO than
07:20the one that we've been accustomed to in recent years.
07:22And these meetings, of course, happening, we've been talking about it here this evening
07:26before this scheduled call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, really Europe being
07:31forced to take a backseat in all of this, isn't it, despite these meetings and these
07:36continual shows of solidarity between various EU leaders and now with the new Canadian prime
07:41minister?
07:42Well, I think it's a contest and I think it's revealing what actually happened in the just
07:47over two weeks after that humiliation, attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky.
07:53That was on a Friday.
07:54On the Monday, the European Union, including Ursula von der Leyen's statement, was to step
08:00up and say, all right, we're not going to sit by and let this happen.
08:04First, we're going to increase defense production.
08:07Secondly, we're going to look at our own security guarantees for Ukraine, something which has
08:11been led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer.
08:14And third, we're going to develop an alternative negotiating path to the U.S.-Russia direct
08:19talks.
08:20Now, here we are just over two weeks later, and we have had that commitment to increase
08:25defense production.
08:27More importantly, we've had discussion of security guarantees, which are proceeding
08:31with talks on Thursday amongst military leaders.
08:34And we have had this Ukraine-U.S. ceasefire plan, which was brokered by the Europeans.
08:41In other words, what we saw was that Europe stepping up actually put Vladimir Putin on
08:45the defensive.
08:46And the reason why he is finally granting that call to Donald Trump, something he has
08:50dangled before Trump for weeks, is so the Kremlin can try to regain the initiative by
08:56spinning Trump, by flipping him to try to undermine the ceasefire proposal.
09:01That again means that Europe again will have to respond if Trump does follow Putin's lead
09:06and reach out to those Americans within the Trump administration who still think Ukraine
09:11security is something worth defending.
09:13Scott, as ever, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
09:17For all your analysis there, that's Scott Lucas, Professor of U.S. and International
09:21Politics at the Clinton Institute at UCD Dublin.
09:26Well, that's it from us for now.
09:27Do stay with us.
09:28We'll be back shortly with more world news.