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00:00This is Apropos. It's his first official foreign trip since being sworn in last Friday. Mark
00:08Carney's decision to visit Paris instead of Washington, as is usual for Canadian leaders,
00:14comes after Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with both Ottawa and Brussels and floated
00:20threats of annexing Canada. The former central banker later travelled to London to meet Canada's
00:25head of state, King Charles, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. James Vazina has more.
00:32Sworn in on Friday, Mark Carney has already crossed the Atlantic, a heavy indication of
00:37the urgency for Canada's new government to have the country's long-term allies stand alongside it.
00:44That was confirmed when he said that the alliance between Canada and France
00:47is more important than ever.
00:49With you, Mr. President, I want to ensure that France and the whole of Europe works enthusiastically
00:57with Canada, the most European of non-European countries, determined like you to maintain the
01:06most positive possible relations with the United States. Canada is a reliable, trustworthy,
01:14and strong partner of France, which shares our values and lives them through action
01:21during this age of economic and geopolitical crises.
01:27Threats that have turned to reality for Canada after Donald Trump imposed tariffs at the start
01:31of March. Aluminium and steel entering the United States are subject to a 25% tariff,
01:37and he's threatened to widen them to all Canadian products at the beginning of next month.
01:41As the rift with the United States grows,
01:43Canada and France have committed to developing a new security and intelligence partnership.
01:48Carney's government is currently reconsidering the purchase of US-made fighter jets in light
01:53of the trade war. Canada and France are powers for peace, reliable allies who will take part
01:58in this effort together. It is in this spirit that we will maintain our support for Ukraine
02:02and continue to demand clear commitments from Russia. With Donald Trump repeatedly making
02:08comments about Canada becoming the United States' 51st state, it's the country's sovereignty that's
02:14also central to many Canadians' concerns. Carney said that the comments were disrespectful
02:20and need to stop. For more, we're joined now by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and
02:28International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. Thanks so much for
02:34being with us this evening, Scott. So, Mark Carney's first overseas mission as it were,
02:40what exactly prompted this trip? Is it simply because of the Trump factor, as one observer put it?
02:48Well, I certainly think the Trump factor is part of this, but part of this is
02:52where Canada is vis-a-vis the United States versus Europe right now. And it is an important symbol
03:00that Mark Carney's first trip was not to Washington to see Donald Trump, but it was
03:05to see Keir Starmer in the UK and Emmanuel Macron in France. We have the immediate issue
03:11that Donald Trump does not see Canada as an ally. He sees Canada as a territory to be bullied,
03:19at the very least. And of course, if you take his statements at face value,
03:24Trump wants to take over Canada. Now, that's a great offense to Canadian nationalism. It's an
03:29offense to Canadian sovereignty, but it makes Canada rethink where its political and economic
03:34position is. And if the United States is not going to be your ally, who will be? And that's why you
03:41have this reach out to the UK, to France, and more broadly, to the European Union.
03:46And I think one thing I found striking this week is that if you ask Canadians who they favor,
03:5368% have a favorable view of the EU versus 34% of the United States. That's a stunning shift.
03:59And by the way, almost half of Canadians now actually favor joining the European Union,
04:04even though I don't think that's on the cards in the near future.
04:08Canada also, Scott, it's reviewing the purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets in light of
04:14Trump's trade war. Carney's suggesting a little earlier that alternative aircraft could be built
04:20in Canada or perhaps in Europe. Is that likely, do you think, at this stage?
04:25Well, I think the immediate alternative for Canada is that when they considered where to
04:30buy the fighter jets, the F-35 came out first, but Sweden's Saab Gripen came out second. And
04:35that's an immediate option. They can go to the Swedes and get those jets while they consider
04:40trying to build up a domestic capability. But remember, you also have other alternatives,
04:44such as the Eurofighter. And indeed, this is not just Canada. Portugal has said,
04:50the Portuguese defense minister has said that Portugal is considering pulling out of contracts
04:55to buy the F-35, that it's looking at alternatives. There are indications that Germany may consider
05:01that as well. Again, I come back to a fundamental. For the first time in 84 years, since 1941,
05:08you have a US government which is not allied with Europe. It is not allied with Canada.
05:13And in that circumstance, Canada, Europe, and other countries look at each other and say,
05:18how do we build up these capabilities without necessarily going through Washington?
05:22Yeah, because the French president also has been ramping up efforts to persuade
05:27allies to move away from purchasing those American military hardware. But Scott,
05:32the top five firms globally, they're all American. After that, it's kind of mostly
05:36followed by Chinese firms. In and around 27 of the top 100 are based in Europe. So
05:44can these alternative suppliers, can they actually ramp up production? And how long might that take?
05:52This is a long term project. Certainly, there will be an effort to increase production capacity,
05:57but you're right, there are limits on that. But you're talking about developing the ability
06:03in the longer term to have a much greater capacity. I think what we are seeing is the
06:08potential for the greatest realignment of relationships around the world, including
06:15with the United States, since 1945. And what you're seeing, I think, is Canada, the European
06:21Union, including France and other countries, finally taking a look five, 10, 15 years down
06:27the road and saying, we have to make these plans. We cannot, as we have done in the past,
06:33make the assumption of a US led NATO, a US led transatlantic relationship. So what you're seeing
06:40is certainly not something that will fill the gap that the US has provided in security for more than
06:4580 years. But it is a start. And it's an indication that this may finally be a world, which is one in
06:52which the United States is not necessarily at the centre of where France, Canada or other countries
06:57go next. And that clearly the message that Mark Carney is trying to send. He's no stranger,
07:02of course, to London. Is it a difficult balancing act, do you believe, for the likes of France and
07:08the UK to show their solidarity with the new Canadian prime minister without, you know,
07:15irritating too much the White House? I think we're beyond balancing acts. I mean,
07:21think about Mark Carney. Not only is he prime minister of Canada, but he was governor of the
07:25Bank of England when you had the other major shock of recent years, which is the UK leaving
07:31the European Union. Now, in the aftermath of the UK leaving the European Union, EU countries have
07:37had to reconsider their relationships. And now I think you have to be at a point where your first
07:43thought is not what is Donald Trump's ego, not will Donald Trump humiliate you in public, you
07:49have to think about your national interests first. Because if you simply think of Trump first, you put
07:55yourself on the defensive. You don't plan, you react. And I think Mark Carney, Emmanuel Macron,
08:02Keir Starmer and other leaders are saying, we cannot just react now. We have to act, we have to
08:07plan. Not remember only for the sake of our countries, but remember for the sake of Ukraine,
08:12as it faces a Russian invasion, an invasion in which Donald Trump may have more sympathy with
08:17Vladimir Putin than with Ukraine's fight to survive. They have to act, they have to plan,
08:22as you say, Scott, but what do you think, in terms of concrete proposals is going to actually
08:28come out of those meetings today, firstly in Paris, and then later on in London?
08:33Well, I think you have a wider context here, first of all, which is that which came out
08:37last week, in the aftermath of the humiliation, the attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky,
08:45the Ukrainian president by the White House, Ursula von der Leyen, saying, you know,
08:51our goal as the European Union is 800,000 euros, sorry, 800 billion euros in investment in our
09:00defense industry and defense production. You have Canada, which is saying we have to ramp up
09:06with billions of Canadian dollars into our own security establishment. Now, it is not just a
09:12question of spending money on that. You also have to develop the logistics chains, you have to
09:19coordinate between various defense firms, you have to coordinate production cycles. But I think,
09:24again, I have to emphasize for the first time, really, that I can remember, you have Canadian
09:29and European countries saying, we're going to plan for this defense, without assuming that the
09:34United States is at the center of this. And this will take place, by the way, not only at terms of
09:39the national level, it will also take place within NATO as well, which means we may have a
09:43far different NATO than the one that we've been accustomed to in recent years. And these meetings,
09:48of course, happening, we've been talking about it here this evening before this scheduled call
09:53between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, really Europe being forced to take a backseat in all of
09:58this, isn't it, despite these meetings and these continual shows of solidarity between various EU
10:04leaders and now with the new Canadian Prime Minister? Well, I think it's a contest. And I
10:09think it's revealing what actually happened in the just over two weeks after that
10:14humiliation, attempted humiliation of Vladimir Zelensky. That was on a Friday. On the Monday,
10:21the European Union, including Ursula von der Leyen's statement, was to step up and say,
10:26all right, we're not going to sit by and let this happen. First, we're going to increase
10:30defence production. Secondly, we're going to look at our own security guarantees for Ukraine,
10:36something which has been led by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer. And third, we're going to
10:40develop an alternative negotiating path to the US-Russia direct talks. Now, here we are just over
10:46two weeks later, and we have had that commitment to increase defence production. More importantly,
10:52we've had discussion of security guarantees, which are proceeding with talks on Thursday
10:57amongst military leaders. And we have had this Ukraine-US ceasefire plan, which was brokered by
11:04the Europeans. In other words, what we saw was that Europe stepping up actually put Vladimir
11:09Putin on the defensive. And the reason why he is finally granting that call to Donald Trump,
11:15something he has dangled before Trump for weeks, is so the Kremlin can try to regain the initiative
11:21by spinning Trump, by flipping him to try to undermine the ceasefire proposal.
11:26That, again, means that Europe, again, will have to respond if Trump does follow Putin's lead and
11:31reach out to those Americans within the Trump administration who still think Ukraine's security
11:37is something worth defending. Scott, as ever, thanks so much for being with us on the programme
11:41this evening. For all your analysis there, that's Scott Lucas, Professor of US
11:45and International Politics at the Clinton Institute at UCD Dublin. Well, that's it
11:51from us for now. Do stay with us. We'll be back shortly with more world news.