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00:00I did a deep dive.
00:01I know you're deep dive, Dibs.
00:02I did a deep dive.
00:04Okay.
00:04And I checked the rules.
00:05Yeah.
00:06They're allowed to win.
00:07I checked.
00:08Seems a little shallow end to me, but I'll allow it.
00:11For me, that's a deep dive.
00:12And I like your deep dive.
00:13I went on the internet.
00:14I checked the rules.
00:15They're allowed to win.
00:16They are.
00:17And surprising things happen in the NBA playoffs, and maybe they will win.
00:21Does that mean anything in the larger picture?
00:24Probably not, but certainly changes the conversation.
00:26So, like, we're not in off-season mode yet.
00:30No.
00:30But the Warriors have lost three playoff games in a row, and I think there's one big shiny
00:38neon sign reason, and a bunch of other little reasons that are the subplots to this whole
00:44thing, but the neon sign flashing out in front of your business is, Curry is out.
00:51That's it.
00:52That's it.
00:53I just, and I accept that.
00:55I do, too, but it's not like they close the restaurant.
00:58No.
00:58No, you come eat.
01:00Right.
01:00But the best dish is, we're out.
01:02Well, you're a breakfast shop, and you can't get eggs because of the avian bird flu, so people
01:09are still coming to your restaurant, and they're trying to get breakfast, and yeah, let me get
01:13the omelet.
01:14Ah, add eggs.
01:15Can I get the Benedict?
01:16No eggs.
01:17Let me get two sunny side up.
01:18No eggs.
01:19We got waffles and pancakes, and French toast, if you're lucky, and some sausage.
01:24Those need eggs, too.
01:25But anyway, go ahead.
01:26You're probably right.
01:27I guess you could do it with eggless eggs.
01:29I don't, you know.
01:30I'm not making no waffles without any eggs.
01:32Right.
01:33Go ahead.
01:33The greater point is, you're still going to probably try to open your restaurant, and
01:38I look at what you're saying is not wrong, but I also look at the reality of what we've
01:42been through the last three games.
01:44Game two was a, hey, everybody, show me what you're working with, and we lose.
01:49Game three was, all right, we know who we're going with.
01:52It's at home.
01:53You played mostly great, and darn it, you had it.
01:56You didn't have it, but you were in it.
01:59You're sticking in the almost column.
02:00Right.
02:01Some people like to have an almost column.
02:02It was a nice try, don't cry.
02:04You were in it.
02:05You competed, and then last night, for two quarters, it was like, okay, this is the game
02:08we were looking for.
02:10The bounce back, you're right there again, and then the third quarter, Minnesota showed
02:14that without Steph Curry, they are better than you, and so now you're facing a 3-1 deficit,
02:19and I've run these numbers ad nauseum, 293 times a team's been up 3-1.
02:26They've won 280 of those times.
02:28Of the 13 who have actually come back down 3-1, only three have done it in history by winning
02:36twice on the road.
02:38So the Warriors are faced with that, and the stats tell you that it's a 1% historical chance.
02:44I think it's 1.06% of teams have gone out.
02:48Sounds kind of like Dallas' chances of getting Cooper flagged.
02:52Yeah, and they did, but that's a little bit easier because you just have to worry about
02:56a computer module.
02:58This, you have to actually go out there and do it without the best player.
03:01You've got to sweat and make shots.
03:02I looked at all three of the instances where this happened, and they're all unique, and
03:07in all three of them, the star player was playing basketball.
03:11So it's a 1% historical chance, and if you add in the fact that Steph Curry is not playing
03:17probably in Game 5, maybe not Game 6, we don't even know his future, that takes your 1% and
03:24makes it about 0.1%.
03:26Like, I'm going to speak out of turn here.
03:28He's not playing tomorrow night, so forget about that.
03:30He's not playing tomorrow night, and they've got an unbelievable task in front of them
03:36to even get to Sunday.
03:37It would be a ton of fun if they did.
03:40It would certainly change the direction of the conversation, at least for the time being.
03:47You don't win anything if you do win tomorrow night, but you get a few more days of like,
03:53ooh, is he going to play?
03:54Is he not going to play?
03:55But then you'd still have an absolutely monstrous task in front of you of still winning two
04:00more basketball games and another Game 7 on the road and all of the things.
04:05And so, yeah, the unlikelihood is all there.
04:07I just sort of, I look at today and I wonder how many fans accept this concept as unfair
04:15as it may be.
04:17And this doesn't, this isn't built to like create a waiver for anyone.
04:22Like, that's not what this is about.
04:25I'm not trying to like, everybody needs to be accountable.
04:28And if you've got an NBA uniform, you're going to be judged on whether or not you can play
04:33NBA basketball, not whether or not you can play next to Steph Curry.
04:37So, if you're disappointed in the way Pods is shooting the ball, let's go.
04:42So am I.
04:43So is he.
04:43If you're disappointed in the way that Moses Moody has just fallen into a confidence graveyard,
04:53so am I.
04:54So is he.
04:55Let's do it.
04:56If you think Steve Kerr should have started Kaminga last night or at least gone to him earlier,
05:02so do I.
05:03So do I.
05:04We can do that.
05:05But for me, the larger thought is, as hard as it is, and as big of a bummer as it is,
05:13I accept it.
05:15When a team loses their superstar, I accept the reasoning of, we lost our superstar.
05:23Oh, why'd you lose?
05:24We lost our superstar.
05:26Not, there's an idiot on the sideline.
05:29Not, that player's a choker.
05:31Not any of those things.
05:32The Warriors lost their superstar, and I just don't know many NBA teams who can function
05:39really kind of at all at a high level if that happened.
05:44Is Denver playing tonight?
05:46Is Denver playing Oklahoma City tonight for game five of that series?
05:50It's not tonight.
05:51If Jokic gets hurt, you're all going to say the same thing tomorrow.
05:55They're done.
05:56They're done.
05:58And there's no, like, well, they should have been ready for this.
06:03Or they should have been the roster.
06:05No, they're done.
06:07And so the Warriors are very probably about to be done, too.
06:11And it sucks.
06:13And it's a bummer.
06:14And I accept it.
06:15Yeah, I don't.
06:16I don't accept it that.
06:17I don't accept it that readily because I look at what's happened in these last two games.
06:21You could look at three games.
06:22But game two for me was a gravy game.
06:26It was a swing and a miss because you wanted to see who you could play.
06:29Game three, without Steph Curry, you were competitive.
06:33And your other star, your Robin to his Batman, was impactful.
06:38He was very good.
06:39And he didn't play that way last night.
06:42And whether it's because of the tailbone or the illness, for me, it's not only about Steph Curry not playing.
06:48And Draymond Green in game three was terrible.
06:51And he's, by all measurements, healthy.
06:54And so for me, if you got a better performance from your two stars, and yes, we can look at Pods and Moody.
07:01We can look at all the other players.
07:03Kaminga's been spectacular.
07:04So I'll leave him out of it because, boy, he's turned a lot of heads with how he's played these last few games.
07:09But the role players have not stepped up and been good.
07:13And the stars have not done what they need to do to win these games.
07:17If you're a star, it falls on your doorstep.
07:20It's up to you.
07:21That's fine.
07:21It can fall on this doorstep.
07:23I don't even know if you and I are actually zeroing in on the same point, though.
07:26We are.
07:27I'm not.
07:27We are.
07:28No, because you're saying that without Steph, then, you know, what are we even thinking you're going to lose?
07:32Not what are we even thinking, but, like, yeah, you're, like, why do you think some of those players are underperforming?
07:40Why do you think that is?
07:41I think part of it is because when Steph plays, you get more space and you have more ability to perform at a certain level.
07:48There you go.
07:48But I also look at what I've seen, which is Brandon Pajemski, who's had open shots that he's not hitting.
07:55So are those shots more open when Steph's around?
07:57Maybe a little bit, but I see a guy who is locked up, and I don't know what's happened to Moses Moody and why his confidence has gotten to the point where his coach won't play him.
08:08And even when he plays, he's not.
08:10Like, you look at last night, even in garbage time, he got a ball and whatever.
08:14They cut it to who even cares, 11 or 12, and he got one.
08:17He's totally guarded, and he just jacked it up.
08:19It's like, I don't know where Moses is mentally or emotionally.
08:23I mean, there was less than a minute to go, so they were trying to, like, that was a hail mary.
08:27I look more at Jimmy Butler, who you're supposed to be playoff Jimmy, and you take nine shots.
08:32And, you know, Draymond Green was mostly good last night.
08:35And yet and still, you know, you're the stars.
08:38It's going to be up to you to step forward and really take on the extra burden, and they didn't.
08:43Maybe I'm trying to thread the needle here.
08:46I'm not saying that the players, you got a big salary and a jersey and shoes and a locker.
08:51You have to be accountable for what you do, yes.
08:56But the end result overall is Warriors aren't good enough to do this without Steph Curry.
09:03Well, they were good enough to win game three, I believe.
09:06That's fine, but they didn't, so actually they weren't.
09:08You know what I mean?
09:09They probably weren't good enough to win game one, but they did.
09:12They were up ten when he went out, and they won by ten.
09:14But they were right there, well, but Minnesota was terrible in that game.
09:16Right.
09:17So you could argue they handed it to you.
09:18Like, of course, I'm not saying you can't go win a game.
09:23You can't win a game.
09:23This isn't about winning a game.
09:25Well, it's about winning a game.
09:26This is about winning four games.
09:27Well, it's about winning a game to get to where maybe Steph Curry can come back.
09:31Maybe, maybe, and we don't even know that.
09:33But the bottom line is I'm analyzing what is happening,
09:39which is that Steph Curry is not playing, and they are not good enough.
09:44Without him.
09:45And I think that that's true for every NBA team.
09:48All of them.
09:49Well, look at Boston now down 3-1.
09:51You're done.
09:52Right.
09:52Even if they win game five, they probably won't win six and seven.
09:56They're in trouble.
09:57There's also an emotional factor.
09:59Like, they've got to go out there tomorrow night with the realization
10:02that the whole organization has been changed for the next year and a half.
10:06Yeah.
10:07Like, wow.
10:09Devastating.
10:10What an unbelievable gut punch.
10:13So, that's all I'm saying.
10:15I'm not saying that those individuals aren't allowed to play well
10:19or that they all get a free pass.
10:20I'm not saying that you can't go win a game.
10:23But you lost Steph Curry.
10:27And so, yeah, you're probably not going to have action in this series.
10:31I think that's an acceptable reason.
10:33And largely, I do think this.
10:36I'm not saying everyone gets a free pass.
10:37I do think you have to pick a new angle to look at everything, though.
10:41That's all.
10:41I don't think you get to look at the Warriors or any NBA team
10:45and sort of insinuate that they should have been ready for this.
10:49No, not ready.
10:50It could have been different.
10:52They all should raise their game even more.
10:55Like, look, this is the reality, even if you don't want it to be the reality.
11:01Yes, the world of Warrior basketball orbits around him.
11:07He's that big of a deal.
11:10And so everything's different without him.
11:13Everything.
11:14Everything.
11:15Well, it doesn't have to all be different.
11:17Jimmy Butler in Game 3 was different than Jimmy in Game 4.
11:21Well, everyone's going to be different one night to the next.
11:23But you're talking about a guy you're paying $50 million a year to,
11:28and you're expecting him to be the step-up guy, and he was in Game 3.
11:32And whether or not he was sick in Game 4, I haven't heard that from him,
11:35and they've intimated that.
11:36But you expect him to be better than he was.
11:39And the role players are the role players.
11:42And most of them are not playing well.
11:43You're talking about last night with Jimmy.
11:45Exactly.
11:45That's fine.
11:45You can expect to be better.
11:46You took nine shots, and you were a minus 30.
11:48You're still not winning that game.
11:49You got blown off the floor.
11:50You're not winning that game.
11:51You got blown off the floor because of the third quarter.
11:53And the third quarter, you couldn't score.
11:55And overall, he was not showing the same level of aggressiveness to try to score the basketball.
12:01Yeah, and I thought he was disappointing, and so you can expect him to be different.
12:05That's one night, though.
12:07I'm talking about, again, the overall view of this.
12:10Jimmy Butler did have a good game after Steph left in this series.
12:14Jonathan Kaminga has come in and done everything you could hope for him to do,
12:18and it is all added up for, let me get my calculator, zero wins.
12:22Right.
12:22So it's still not good enough because they're not good enough without Steph Curry.
12:29That, to me, is a defeatist mentality.
12:31That's fine.
12:31And I don't think that they're approaching it that way.
12:34No.
12:35Like, they're getting on a plane today.
12:37They're going to land here in about an hour or two, and they're going there to try to win.
12:40Of course, I'm not them.
12:41My mentality doesn't matter.
12:43I'm telling you what I see.
12:44I think Boston's dead.
12:45I think Golden State is probably dead.
12:48I think if you lose your star in the NBA in the playoffs, you're probably dead.
12:52You're probably, but you find a different way to go about it.
12:55And they did that in game three for the most part,
12:57and then they just were unable to get the ball across the finish line.
13:00I got a new deep dive dibs, maybe for tomorrow.
13:05Has any NBA team ever lost their, like, and I mean super-duper booper star?
13:12Yeah, their best player.
13:13Right.
13:14And then straight to the championship.
13:17No, we're not talking straight to the championship.
13:19We're talking about winning a series.
13:21Right.
13:21Okay, advance.
13:22Advance deeper into the playoffs, into round three, whatever.
13:27Like, I don't, I just don't, I cannot remember.
13:30Like, we've seen it in football.
13:34Yeah.
13:34Haas Dettler, Nick Foles.
13:36Well, you saw it with this very warrior team when Steph got hurt back in 2016 against Houston,
13:41and they were able to advance out of that series.
13:44What round was that?
13:45That was in the second round, I believe.
13:47And how much of the series did he miss?
13:49He missed games two and three.
13:51He came back in four, and he got hurt again.
13:53Right.
13:53And then he ended up missing another week.
13:55And who else was on the roster?
13:57Well, you asked about the super-duper star.
13:59He was their best player.
14:01You had Iguodala and Klay, and you had Draymond.
14:03What year was this?
14:04This was 2016, I believe.
14:05Okay.
14:06Because they would go on to lose the NBA Finals when he was somewhat compromised in the NBA Finals.
14:12Not to make excuses, and I'm not.
14:14They had a 3-1 lead.
14:16Game 5, Draymond suspended, watching the A's game.
14:19And the Cavs came here.
14:21LeBron and Kyrie each had 41 in that game.
14:25And he went back to Cleveland.
14:27Warriors lost that game.
14:28Game 7, I had to look this up earlier.
14:30Draymond had 32 points in Game 7.
14:33No, he was filling it up from 3.
14:35And they ended up losing that by, like, 4 points.
14:37But that's the only time.
14:39And, again, at that time, Steph was not the Steph that he is now on this team.
14:44No, and you're talking about a generational roster that won 73 basketball games.
14:48And that was a team that had Iguodala coming off a Finals MVP, and you had Livingston, and you had Klay, Draymond.
14:54Yeah, it was a much deeper team than this one.
14:58So, for me, what you're saying about Steph Curry on this team, I get it.
15:02Because if you want to look at the role players, and yesterday I called them the pups.
15:06And they are pups.
15:08Some of them.
15:08They're all pups.
15:09Your rookie, Quentin Post, is 25.
15:11He's a rookie.
15:12TJD, second year.
15:14Pods is 22, second year.
15:16Kaminga's 22, fourth year.
15:18I thought we were talking about everyone.
15:20Jimmy Butler and Draymond included.
15:21No, we're talking about, like, the roster.
15:23And, you know, I was mentioning that other team where you had Iguodala.
15:27You had Mo Spates.
15:28You had Andrew Bogut, for crying out loud.
15:30You had some real OGs as your others.
15:33This team's got pups across the board.
15:36Totally.
15:36As your others.
15:37I mean, Steph Curry back at that time, I think, was making $14 million a year.
15:41Yeah, you're probably right.
15:42He's now the highest paid player in the entire sport.
15:45And they brought in Jimmy Butler.
15:47And Draymond's on the team.
15:49You're not going to be able to fill out your roster all fancy schmancy.
15:53You're just, it's not reality.
15:55And this is a conversation for later in the week and next week.
15:58But everyone wants to talk about roster reconstruction.
16:03Good luck with that.
16:04Oh, God.
16:04I mean.
16:05Yeah, I don't want to.
16:05With no first-round pick?
16:08Yeah, I mean.
16:10Yeah, the later date.
16:11For sure.
16:12But I just wanted to plant that seed in your mind.
16:14Because I was thinking about it on the drive-in.
16:16And it's like, geez, I mean, you don't have a lot of options.
16:19Yeah, we'd love to hear from you.
16:20C-Money in Pleasant Hill.
16:21Hey, C-Money, thank you for calling.
16:23What's up?
16:25Yeah, here's my question.
16:27And maybe it's more of your perspective.
16:30But if you look at it historically, right?
16:33Let me back up.
16:34How about we look at the NBA players, the star players, that participated in the Olympics?
16:41If those star players were to, well, not even get hurt, but just if they participated in the Olympics, that team, the NBA team, should get an extra player.
16:55Huh.
16:55Whether it's a draft or whatever, if they make the postseason.
17:01And this actually addresses that question you had earlier about having a plan B.
17:08Because a plan B should always be your worst case scenario.
17:11If our best player got hurt, how do we set this up?
17:17How do we change the strategy and so on and so forth?
17:20If the team has more than one player in the Olympics, do they get two extra players?
17:24Because I'm thinking about OKC with Shea Gildas-Alexander and Lou Dort, who both were Olympians for their country.
17:31Yeah, that's true.
17:34I mean, you'll probably have to, you know, go through that slicing and dicing.
17:38But, I mean, ultimately, the bottom line is, you know, these are, I mean, look at what happened recently.
17:44I mean, so far, we have Jason ruptured Achilles last night.
17:51Obviously, Steph, but he didn't get as injured to the extreme as Jason, but still suffered an injury.
17:58Yep.
17:59And missed, you know, several games, right?
18:01And then there's probably a couple other players as well.
18:04Dame Lillard, same injury as what Tatum just had.
18:09Now, the problem with your argument there, C-Money, is that Jason Tatum, he didn't play in the Olympics.
18:14Oh, and did Dame?
18:15No.
18:16Right.
18:17No, Jason Tatum was on the team, but famously did not play.
18:19Yeah, I like that.
18:20But anyway, point being, like, I, you like that.
18:23Denver had two, Jokic and Murray, they both were Olympians.
18:26I think his point was, are you playing for America, too, I think, to a degree.
18:30I get it, yeah.
18:30But I, like, no.
18:31Obviously, I mean, Minnesota would, in theory, get another player then.
18:35Anthony Edwards was on the Olympic team.
18:36Rudy Gobert was an Olympian.
18:37Yeah, there you go.
18:38So what are we doing?
18:38No, you can't do that.
18:40This is their choice.
18:42And by the way, all the guys who aren't on the Olympic team, they're all working out and playing basketball all summer long also.
18:50They're in the Drew League or wherever guys are.
18:52This is the way it is now.
18:53Guys are playing basketball year-round.
18:55I can remember having a lot of conversations with Clay's dad, with Michael Thompson, because he used to famously tell everyone, he's like, part of the reason injuries seem like they're getting worse, like, we go, oh, they've had so many playoff games.
19:10A lot of these guys do it to themselves.
19:12They won't put the ball down.
19:14They play 12 months of basketball.
19:16And you use the same muscles.
19:20And you wear them out.
19:21Michael used to joke, and I think he was only partially joking.
19:24He's like, when we would get to June, I put the basketball in the closet, and I go play tennis for three months.
19:29That's it.
19:29Yep.
19:30Not playing basketball.
19:31Because it's going to wear out the same joints and muscles.
19:34And oddly, as medicine gets better and workouts get better, it seems like we've got more major injuries now than we did 40 years ago.
19:45How many summers do you think Jason Tatum has taken off since he was eight years old?
19:50None.
19:50And this is what Dr. Nirav Pandya from UCSF Medical talks a lot about, overuse and specialization, where, like in baseball, getting your Tommy John injury now is like, how soon can I get it so that I can come back and be a pitcher again?
20:05Because all these kids play year-round in sports, and so basketball, baseball, you're going to get these sorts of injuries because you don't take time off anymore.