Investors are focused on the wrong factor — here’s what’s actually driving the slowdown.
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00:00The reason that we think the economy slowing is non consensus, but we believe true. Most investors underestimate the power of monetary policy. So the Fed is ultra tight. That's easy to see from the yield curve, but also from the growth in my supply, which is negative. And that's holding back the old economy. So that's residential investment in construction.
00:23But the thing that everyone's ignoring is that oil prices are down over 20%. That's more than enough to offset the tariff increase. And oil is really critical to both inflation and growth because it produces more income when prices come down. So I think people are being too negative, got a little bit shocked by what we call the tariff tantrum and are now calming down and realize things aren't as bad as they thought.