With 'recession' headlines swirling, history shows that economic downturns are notoriously difficult to predict.
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00People were forecasting a recession in 2021 too due to the pandemic and due to other factors
00:06and it didn't take place.
00:08We had so much stimulus coming into the market that it never happened.
00:11So I think the joke is that 10 out of the last 12 recessions have been predicted and
00:17there are only two.
00:18So take it with a grain of salt when people predict economic downturns and recessions
00:24and things of that sort.
00:25We're going to get one eventually.
00:27But in the next 12 months, I think that's highly uncertain right now.
00:30The economy is still pretty strong.
00:32I think the Fed not cutting interest rates fast enough would be one.
00:36I think that geopolitical uncertainty around the world would be two.
00:41And I think the president's policies, which are not conducive to economic growth right
00:47now, whether it's tariffs, whether it's a sharp reduction in governmental spending,
00:53all those kind of things, those reduce economic growth.
00:55So if you combine all those things together and uncertainties, you know, the whole black
00:59swan effect, things we're not looking for that are significant that we don't know really
01:04when it's going to occur.
01:05You put all those things together, they could all cause a recession.
01:08But I would be really surprised if it happens in the next six months.
01:12It's probably a nine to 30 month event, something like that, when we'll get a next recession.
01:19We're really overdue for one though.
01:21So investors should be prepared for some hard times to come.