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00:00Rounding out hour number two live right here on this Tuesday morning on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:05Back to the association, back to the NBA playoffs.
00:08The RS, we have had three of our four second round sets begin.
00:12We're the home favorite in game.
00:14Number one, lost outright despite having that home court advantage.
00:18The Knicks win an OT last night as a nine-point dog against the Boston Celtics inside TD Garden.
00:24The Thunder up by 13 with six and a half left.
00:27Lose to the Nuggets in regulation, 121-119 as a ten-and-a-half point home favorite against Denver.
00:34And, of course, on Sunday, the Pacers go into the land and knock off the Cavaliers.
00:39Our fourth and final second round series begins tonight in Minnesota between the Timberwolves and the Warriors.
00:44We'll talk about that opening game in just a little bit.
00:47But, the RS, we look at the NBA Finals MVP odds right now.
00:51And despite the fact that OKC lost game number one, despite the fact that Boston lost game number one,
00:56despite the fact that Cleveland lost game number one, those are still the three short favorites to win an NBA championship,
01:03as the odds have detailed throughout our time.
01:05And, thus, their best players, still the short favorites to win NBA Finals MVP.
01:10SGA plus 175.
01:12Jason Tatum, do not bet that number, never bet that number, plus 280.
01:15And Donovan Mitchell at plus 650.
01:18Those are the NBA Finals MVP odds at this moment.
01:21Yeah, and we're taking a look and most people say, wait a minute, it doesn't make sense.
01:24SGA lost last night, and Tatum lost last night.
01:26Tatum didn't play well last night.
01:28The expectation is, you see with the Finals, it's NBA Finals betting odds,
01:31which means the teams we expect to be in the Finals with their best players, they're going to be favorites.
01:36But why not Nikola Jokic?
01:37She was unbelievable last night.
01:38We don't expect him to get into the Finals.
01:40That's why he's at a 16-1 price.
01:41And further down there, Jalen Brunson at 36-1.
01:44So, it's a little bit early to sort of chime in to see where these will go.
01:47So, now, you might get some really different numbers based on game number two if SGA ends up 0-2,
01:54which means Nikola Jokic would go from 16-1.
01:56Let's just say if it does go 0-2, right, where OKC loses the first games on our home court,
02:00you probably think Denver's going to win that series.
02:02Would Jokic then jump up behind Jason Tatum?
02:05I would think so.
02:06Yeah.
02:07And DRS, one of the things I also, when you look at the individual,
02:10I don't think anybody is worth a bet right now at that price in comparison to their teams.
02:15Even the guys at the top, as we'll discuss in just a moment.
02:18But Nikola Jokic is 16-1 to win Finals MVP.
02:22Denver is 15-1 to win the NBA Championship.
02:24Anthony Edwards is 12-1 to win Finals MVP.
02:28Minnesota has the fourth-best price to win the NBA Championship at 11-1.
02:32It is still worth betting those teams as opposed to the individual,
02:36although, of course, the argument is very sound.
02:39Are the Nuggets winning an NBA title without Nikola Jokic being at his absolute best?
02:43Probably not.
02:44What was Jokic?
02:45Did we have this price point up before the playoffs started, NBA Finals MVP?
02:49Like, what was Jokic to start, or what was Jokic like even before the series started?
02:53I'm sure we can find that number here.
02:56Like, the reason I ask is, like, you see SGA, clearly the best player.
02:59Tatum, thought of as obviously the best player.
03:01Donovan Mitchell, the same thing, and Anthony Edwards.
03:03But, like, you get to the finals.
03:05Like, Jokic, last time they won, he was the MVP.
03:07Yeah.
03:07Nobody is going to be MVP over Nikola Jokic.
03:09There's not even a question mark.
03:11If they win the championship, he was going for 40s and 20s.
03:13And it's a good point, DRS, because once you get to the NBA Finals MVP,
03:16it's not quite the debate we've had for the Final Four MLP odds.
03:19Correct.
03:20But, of course, if you have those stellar and spectacular championship moments throughout the finals,
03:25even if this guy was the best for your opening three rounds,
03:27and this guy has three great games in the four wins that you have,
03:31he's probably going to win NBA Finals MVP.
03:34Now, in terms of the biggest disparity, maybe not the biggest disparity,
03:38but the Celtics are plus 210 to go back-to-back as an NBA champ.
03:42Jason Tatum is plus 280.
03:43That's 70 cents of difference.
03:44Donovan Mitchell, $1.50 in the individual price behind his Cleveland Cavaliers.
03:495-1 for the Cavs, plus 650 for Spida.
03:52SGA is plus .75.
03:53The Thunder, despite the disappointing Game 1 loss last night,
03:57to the Nugs, are plus 170 to win the NBA championship.
04:01You can see how directly correlated those two prices are.
04:04I'm telling you this right now.
04:06I've seen enough.
04:06Jason Tatum is not a top-five player in the NBA,
04:09because you cannot be top-five and perform the way down-clutch moments
04:13that Jason Tatum continuously does.
04:15Did he win Eastern Conference Final MVP last year?
04:17Nope.
04:18Did he win NBA Finals MVP last year?
04:20Nope.
04:21It was Jalen Brown in both.
04:22Numerous times last night.
04:24He had the shorter and worst defender in Jalen Brunson on him
04:27to ice out the game in regulation.
04:30Or cat on him, who he should blow by each and every time.
04:34He settled for a contested step-back three,
04:36unable to get past either of those two defenders and convert in the clutch moments.
04:40There are some players that fail to convert in the clutch moments.
04:44They miss a shot.
04:45There are others like Jason Tatum right here, right now,
04:47at least based on what we have seen,
04:48that balk at the opportunity to take advantage of that clutch moment,
04:52passing it off for a terrible shot,
04:54or passing it off to his teammate in Jalen Brown.
04:57It blows my mind.
04:58Yeah.
04:58No, in the big spots, your big players have to step up.
05:00The expectations are Tatum is supposed to be the next guy, right?
05:02Hey, here's Kobe to Tatum.
05:04Top-three, top-five.
05:04Top-three, top-five.
05:05Should be MVP on a year-to-year basis,
05:07playing with a team that's won a championship.
05:08It is an ultimate indictment, though.
05:10Like, the Celtics finally get over the hump,
05:11and it was like, yeah, Tatum, you were a good player,
05:13but you weren't the best player on the team.
05:14That's got to be a shot, man.
05:15Twice to win historic banner number 18.
05:18More on the early lineup.
05:19Stay.
05:19The Dogs have been barking to start off the second round of this NBA postseason.
05:24The Pacers won outright on Sunday in Cleveland as an 8.5-point dog.
05:28Last night, the Knicks, 9-point dog, winning in OT over the Celtics,
05:32coming back from down by as many as 20 midway through that third quarter.
05:37The Nuggets winning outright as a 10.5-point underdog in Oklahoma City,
05:41trailing by 13 points, with six and a half minutes remaining in regulation.
05:46A doubleheader of NBA playoff action on this Tuesday,
05:49first in Cleveland, then in Minnesota, and that is our focus, DRS.
05:54Game number one of the second round between the Timberwolves and the Warriors.
05:58Anthony Edwards wants this series, wants this opponent,
06:03wants the competition as the dragon slayer he has become in the Western Conference.
06:08How well will it go for the Timberwolves in game number one and this series?
06:13It was the question to all of you in Fade the Public.
06:23At SportsGrid on Twitter, who will win the second round series,
06:27the Western Conference semifinal set between Minnesota and Golden State?
06:32In most of the public DRS, really not all that close.
06:35More than 68% of the votes backing the Timberwolves, 68.3% at SportsGrid on Twitter.
06:43Minnesota going to win this second round set over the Golden State Warriors.
06:47Is Donnie right side fading the public?
06:49I'm not going to fade the public in this spot.
06:50I am going to go with the Timberwolves, which is the way I voted here.
06:5468% of the public coming in on that side as well.
06:56And rightfully so.
06:57They're the favorites.
06:57They're supposed to draw more attention.
06:59But also understand this.
07:00We didn't get to the second round here as a fluke for the Timberwolves.
07:03They took it to the Los Angeles Lakers, Luka Doncic and LeBron James.
07:07And a 20-20 effort by Rudy Gobert in a closeout game situation.
07:11The last thing you need for the rest of the NBA is for Rudy Gobert to get an offensive game
07:15and get confidence down on the low block, which he did against the Lakers.
07:18Now, things are going to change, and I'm respected, of the Warriors
07:21because they have a championship pedigree.
07:23Steph can still rise up.
07:24Jimmy Butler's been phenomenal.
07:25Draymond Green playing like he's rejuvenated once again.
07:28That's a pretty good starting lineup and one of the better coaches in the NBA in Steve Kerr.
07:31Not going to be a quick series, but also understand this.
07:34There's a difference between who do you think is going to win this series
07:37and who do you think is going to cover on a game-to-game basis.
07:40So for the series itself, I do think the Wolves' home court advantage are the better team
07:43and should advance.
07:44But on a day-to-day basis, we're going to have some certainly different opportunities
07:47and including tonight as well.
07:49And the odds back that up.
07:50The odds, in fact, DRS, following what the public is thinking here as well.
07:54Minnesota now a minus-194 favorite outright to win this second-round set
07:59in front of Golden State.
08:01Now, we had some conversation behind the scenes here on the early line last week
08:06and looking forward to this potential series before Minnesota knocked off the Lakers
08:09in the Gentleman's Sweep when the Warriors were up 3-1 in front of the Rockets as well.
08:15Of course, Golden State lost back-to-back games, tested,
08:17and the road underdog in Game 7 against the Rockets in H-Town.
08:22And Minnesota made very quick work of LeBron, Luka, and the Lakers.
08:26The oddsmakers at the time had Golden State nearly $2 in front of Minnesota
08:31to win the Western Conference crown.
08:33Our producer extraordinaire, and correctly so, Joe Friso said the Timberwolves would be
08:37the series favorites in front of Golden State.
08:39Myself and JY in a commercial break said,
08:42Friso, you're crazy.
08:43Look at the odds right here.
08:44The Warriors would be the favorite.
08:46Well, we had it wrong.
08:47Friso had it right.
08:48Frankly, the oddsmakers, although we love you, FanDuel, had it slightly off as well
08:53because the Timberwolves, not just like a minus-120, basically, pick-em favorite here, DRS.
08:58Minnesota has home-four advantage.
09:00They have the rest advantage in front of Golden State,
09:03and they are now a minus-194 favorite.
09:06Now, you're not fanning the public.
09:07You think the T-Wolves do win this second-round series
09:09to advance to the Western Conference Finals for a second-straight season.
09:13Do you think it should be that strong of a price in favor of Minnesota?
09:16No, I don't.
09:17I think it's pretty much gotten away almost a minus-200 price at this point right now.
09:20But, again, they are the better team.
09:21And also, you have to understand where they're coming off from the season itself.
09:25Expectations to start the season, still pretty high for the Minnesota Timberwolves,
09:27even though they made that move from Cat over to Julius Randle.
09:30And Randle really coming into his own on that team,
09:32but also understanding the plot here.
09:34Once you get to the playoffs, man, what a series that's going to be.
09:36The Los Angeles Lakers, you know, looking to take on the Timberwolves.
09:39You know, advantage goes to the Lakers on home-court advantage.
09:42They beat him in five games, which means they clinched in Los Angeles, which was great.
09:45And then also, to me, not watching the NBA season next year,
09:49I sort of say thank you to the Warriors for doing that for me.
09:52But also understand this.
09:53A lot of people, I guess, believing that the Rockets weren't a great basketball team
09:57entering into the playoffs, and still that still went seven games.
10:01So you're having that low play over.
10:02And also understand this, too.
10:03Rested and ready.
10:04You're going to find out a lot about what those aging legs of the Warriors have.
10:07Because if they play well and can win a game number one in Minnesota,
10:10that could really shake up the Richter scale on the series.
10:12But for me, I just think the Timberwolves are a better overall team.
10:15And I always trust home-court advantage and give that team the bump,
10:19which will be the Timberwolves.
10:20And there's no doubt about it.
10:21The T-Wolves do have that home-four advantage.
10:23They are the sixth seed.
10:23The Warriors are the seventh seed.
10:25And yet, Minnesota gets that home-four advantage
10:27because of the opening round upset over the Lakers.
10:30Minnesota was the underdog entering that series.
10:32Golden State, the ever-so-slight favorite.
10:34Thus, the Rockets' referendum.
10:35Let me ask.
10:36It did go to seven.
10:37Houston was a slight favorite for that seventh game.
10:40What you would think, if being the two-seed and having home-court advantage
10:43for any game would be most paramount, it would be a seventh and final game.
10:48So, DRS, are you done watching the NBA regular season?
10:50I mean, there's only one thing that can help your boy watch the regular season next year.
10:55The ping-pong balls bounce around, comes up Sixers flag.
10:58I will be at game one for this Philadelphia 76ers 2025.
11:02Wow.
11:02Even if I have to miss PFT, if it ends up on a Monday or Thursday, or even a Sunday.
11:07I'll miss a Sunday here to make sure I'm there for opening night for the flag era in Philadelphia.
11:11For what it's worth on the early line, we'll give you that next morning offer.
11:14Wherever it needs to be.
11:15Really?
11:15Because that would be a tight turnaround.
11:16But what happens if we're, like, redoing stuff, though?
11:18Do I still get the day off or no?
11:19Well, yeah, then there'll be Joe Ranieri and Tom Vecchio.
11:21Okay.
11:21How about that?
11:22Joe, if you do ask me.
11:24That is the only chance that the ping-pong balls next Friday.
11:28Flag them.
11:28Because I think it's May 12th, right?
11:30It is Monday, May 12th.
11:32That's the NBA draft lottery.
11:34Six days from right now, the ping-pong balls fall the way into the Philadelphia 76ers.
11:39Fifth-best odds, the IRS.
11:40Fifth-best chance for Philadelphia to earn that number one overall selection.
11:45And, of course, the Cooper flag sweepstakes.
11:47Now, I do want to tie back to our Minnesota and Golden State series.
11:51So, as we have seen so far, in our first three game ones of our four second-round sets,
11:57the road underdog catching at least eight and a half points has won outright.
12:01The line is working to Minnesota to win this series outright.
12:05Yes.
12:05And yet, the line for game number one tonight is interesting.
12:08Yes, it is.
12:08The Timberwolves are a six-and-a-half-point home favorite for the opening game of this set
12:12tonight in Minneapolis.
12:14And yet, the public is more so looking at Golden State.
12:18Only in spread is what we can see on the FanDuel Sportsbook via those stats.
12:22But 51% of the money on the spread bets back in Golden State.
12:2665% of the overall volume of bets back in Golden State.
12:29Now, is there a chance the Warriors could cover and still lose outright for sure?
12:34But interesting there, DRS, some of the public love for Golden State in the game.
12:37One bets, but not so much in the series.
12:39We're at copycats, though.
12:40We're taking a look at what happened so far in round number two and game number one
12:43against teams that were on the road and underdogs, you know, winning outright by close-to-double-digit
12:47favorites.
12:48And you're saying, well, I get Steph Curry, I get Jimmy Butler, I get Draymond Green.
12:50I just got to hang around in this game, let alone win, and I can get the cover by a touchdown.
12:54I agree with the line dropping.
12:55I do.
12:55We'll talk about that a little bit later on.
12:58A doubleheader of NBA playoff action on this Tuesday night.
13:01Game number two in Cleveland between the Cavaliers and the Pacers.
13:05Game number one, the opening game of our fourth and final round two set in Minnesota between
13:11the Timberwolves and the Warriors.
13:13We start in Cleveland.
13:14The Cavaliers, a nine-point favorite DRS against those Pacers.
13:18Total stands at 229 and a hook.
13:20Of course, as we have seen so far in each of our three conference semifinal sets, the
13:26road team has taken game one despite being a rather hefty underdog.
13:30Indiana winning outright on Sunday as an eight-and-a-half-point dog in the opening game of this series.
13:36And the odds makers understand that.
13:38We'll talk about the lines tomorrow for our two series where the Knicks won in game one,
13:43Denver winning in game one.
13:44And the lines for game two being even stronger in favor of the home team.
13:48Needing to at least earn that opening two-game split.
13:52Same thought tonight for the Cavaliers.
13:54Eight-and-a-half-point spread in game one.
13:56Nine-point number right now in favor of Cleveland for game two.
14:00What response do you think we see out of the Eastern Conference's number one set?
14:04I think we get a good response, but also understand this.
14:06How healthy are we coming into this game as the Cleveland Cavaliers?
14:08Still looking at Garland, but other guys banged up as well.
14:10You know, granted, it's the playoffs.
14:12If you can go, you're going to go.
14:13But that Garland injury where that toe, you don't really know what it's going to stand up to
14:17once you have to drive or dribble drive by somebody or play some defense
14:20or sprint down the court to see if that's going to be a re-injury
14:23and something to certainly watch.
14:24But also, this line sits at nine right now at the Fan Blue Sportsbook as high as 10.
14:27Like, why?
14:28What did you watch from game number one?
14:29It's like, ah, come on now.
14:30Cleveland's just going to get it together automatically.
14:32I love Cleveland.
14:34Love the fact that they absolutely wiped the Miami Heat off the court.
14:37They're a great basketball team.
14:38They were my pick to go to the finals and still sit in that mode.
14:40But I look at the nine points, like, are you kidding me?
14:43Like, I'm getting close to double digits again with the Pacers.
14:45Again, is the vantage point for the Pacers, mission accomplished,
14:47we're just going to go back to Indy and it's okay, we're 1-1?
14:50Or are they going to try to play hard in this game, which I know they will?
14:52And understand this, we're not asking for just the winner of the game.
14:55You can get beat by six, seven, eight points here, nine points and still get a push.
14:59I love that number.
15:00Like, I don't care if it's a trap like Donnie.
15:02You understand that the numbers are there for a reason,
15:05not just because they want to trap people into it.
15:06That's what they think the favorites should be.
15:08But I got to tell you, I like the Pacers with the nine tonight.
15:11Yeah, listen, when you look at Indiana this year,
15:13you would look at their against-the-spread record as an underdog.
15:1618-15-1 ATS.
15:19And their three games as a dog so far in this postseason,
15:22twice against Milwaukee, game number one, of course, on Sunday against Cleveland.
15:262-1 against the spread, but both of those covers an outright victory.
15:29Why do we allude to that?
15:31Because Indiana 18-15-1 against the spread DRS.
15:34They play off team as an underdog.
15:35Not bad.
15:36Still above .500.
15:37Profitable.
15:38But 18 covers 17 outright wins.
15:42The Pacers straight up as a dog this year.
15:4517-17.
15:47To have a .500 record outright as an underdog,
15:49you are keeping games close and competitive.
15:52And we can reference how the spread is slightly even more in favor of the Cavaliers
15:55trying to earn that opening two-game split tonight against the Pacers.
15:59We expect that to be the case.
16:01But to Donnie's point, it's just not a two-and-a-half-point spread.
16:04The Cavaliers can win outright, draw even in this series.
16:08They win by six.
16:09Indiana covered and with a little bit of wiggle room in doing so.
16:13And the Pacers are a very balanced team.
16:15When you look at Cleveland, of course, everything runs through Spida.
16:18Donovan Mitchell, 33 points in game number one, albeit in a losing effort.
16:23The Pacers, in their five playoff wins so far in their six total games, DRS,
16:27they've had at least six guys in double figures as we saw on Sunday.
16:31All five starters scoring at least 13 points.
16:34Andrew Nebhardt, the leading scorer, bearing five triples with 23 to pace the Pacers.
16:39Yeah, I'm excited to see, too, because what that starting lineup is actually going to be.
16:43Because if you can get a Darius Garland out there, be healthy and effective,
16:46that's certainly going to change some things up.
16:48Been down for a couple games.
16:50Expectations are, I guess, he's going to play because we see an 18-and-a-half-point points prop here
16:54at the FanDuel Sportsbook for him.
16:55Interesting also as I slide down, which means we don't get a lot of Ty Jerome,
16:59who shot 20 times, I believe, in game number one.
17:02So it'll be interesting to see how he sort of filters in.
17:03But understand this.
17:04If there is a correlation in this game, it's not as if the number one overall seed
17:08is going to panic, being down 0-1.
17:09It happens.
17:09We've seen it, and quite frankly, a lot so far in round number two.
17:12But looking from a Cleveland perspective, if you're going to win this game,
17:15what does your coach sit there and tell you?
17:17Like, they're going to sit there and go, you know what?
17:19It's defense, guys.
17:20That's where it starts at this point.
17:21So you see the graphic.
17:22It's 229-and-a-half.
17:23I think the correlation in this game is if the Pacers win,
17:26they're going to try to get out and run.
17:27That's what they do.
17:28But if the Cleveland Cavaliers win, now, granted, we've seen them 115, 120,
17:31130 points routinely in the regular season.
17:34But it's a little bit different in the playoffs.
17:36If I'm expecting Cleveland to win, that means they start on defense,
17:39which means the tempo probably will be slower, as opposed to Indy going like,
17:42let's rev this car up, man.
17:43Let's get after it in game number two.
17:45We've got nothing to lose.
17:46We already have a game in our pocket.
17:47Let's see if we can extend it and get it to two games.
17:49So for me, if it's a Cleveland win, it's going to stay under.
17:51If it's an over, it's probably an Indiana Pacers win.
17:53But for me, again, I do like the Pacers.
17:55I think they keep it close.
17:56I would be shocked if we're watching this game in the second quarter.
17:59Ah, turn it off.
17:5922-point lead.
18:01The Pacers mailed it in.
18:02They're here, man.
18:02I like that team.
18:03No doubt about it, DRS.
18:04Last night in our two games, 213 the total between the Knicks and the Celtics,
18:08needing overtime.
18:10And you got that push.
18:11Would have been an under and considerably so in regulation.
18:14Denver and OKC, though, combining for north of 240 or exactly 240,
18:19going well over that total last night in Oklahoma City.
18:22Cleveland and Indiana, 121-112.
18:24We know the victory for the Pacers in game number one on Sunday over as well.
18:29We know the Pacers play up-tempo.
18:31Maybe not the best defensive team always.
18:33Indiana over in four of six so far in this postseason.
18:37The Cavaliers over in four of their five games so far in this NBA playoff run as well.
18:42Darius Garland does have a points prop out bright and early here on this Tuesday morning,
18:4718 and a half.
18:49He has not played since the second game of the opening round series for Cleveland.
18:53That was nearly two weeks ago, DRS.
18:55What do you see with that, though?
18:55Against Miami.
18:56Like, if I told you right now, 18 and a half.
18:58Forget about the, hey, he's working out before the game.
19:01What's your initial thought on that?
19:02My initial thought would probably be to the over for Darius Garland.
19:05Score at least 21 in both of those games against the Heat.
19:08You probably want to see exactly what he has, of course.
19:12But like we saw with Jimmy Butler returning for Golden State,
19:14are you getting a slightly discounted number?
19:16Because you are not expecting 100% efficiency.
19:19And are you taking advantage of that discount?
19:21Is it going to be 20-plus for the rest of this postseason?
19:24And also ask you a question on that as well.
19:26Because 1-0 series lead for the Cavs, we don't see Garland tonight again.
19:30I would agree.
19:31You know what I mean?
19:31So I think he might be rushed back just a little bit.
19:33And also, we're not talking about an injury.
19:34It's like, okay, maybe a little bit on the hamstring.
19:36Take it easy.
19:37That is a toe, man.
19:38Everything you do is going to affect that movement here.
19:41And also the chance of re-injury I want to see.
19:43So, again, focusing, which I ask you before you get any information.
19:46Later in the day, the beat writer is going to be all over this.
19:48At practice, here's what it is.
19:50No minutes restriction.
19:51Looks and feels great.
19:52Could have played game one.
19:53Played it safe.
19:54Saved them for game two.
19:55And then it will be a different story.
19:56I'm going to lean towards the right now because I don't know if this.
20:00He's not going to come back.
20:01NBA players don't be decoys.
20:02Hey, let me get in the starting lineup for six minutes like Willis Reed way back in the day for the Knicks.
20:06If he plays, he's probably going to be as close to 100% as possible.
20:10But the chance for re-injury and is he rushing back because they really need him, that's what I need to see today.
20:15Yeah, it's a really good point as well, DRS, to look at where things stand.
20:18Meanwhile, for the Pacers, there are five guys in the starting lineup all with a points prop of 12.5 or greater.
20:23Again, speaks to the depth, the balance the Pacers play with.
20:27And when you look at what Cleveland has done, at least in their three home games in the land in the NBA playoffs,
20:33Spiders scored at least 30.
20:34Donovan Mitchell's points prop tonight, 28.5.
20:37You would still think even with Darius Carlin back in the lineup, Donovan Mitchell has to go over that for Cleveland to win comfortably
20:43and maybe cover as that nine-point home favorite tonight in game number two.
20:47Now, I wasn't here over the weekend.
20:50I wasn't here on Monday.
20:51I was out in L.A. Beautiful game and party.
20:53Orange County?
20:55No, South Bay, Los Angeles, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach.
20:57Wow.
20:58Really good time, beautiful weather right by the ocean.
21:00Saw a lot of people.
21:01Saw Andrew Siciliano, Jeff Van Gundy, Chase Buttinger playing volleyball.
21:05Wow.
21:06You know, that's what he does now.
21:07Is anywhere near Venice Beach?
21:08Anywhere near Venice Beach?
21:09Yeah, all right.
21:10I need to get there.
21:11You've been in Venice?
21:12Yeah, I've lived there before.
21:13Gold's Gym.
21:14Really?
21:14No, I haven't.
21:15I mean, this guy back in the day, absolute stud was Jack.
21:18I was going to ask, though, from the perspective.
21:20What was the price on the Cavaliers entering the series to win outright?
21:24Probably had to be, yeah.
21:26So that was really a question for Joe Frizzo.
21:28But I would assume Frizzo probably something close to what we saw for the Celtics minus 600,
21:34something of the sort.
21:36The Cavaliers now just a minus 230 favorite DRS to win this series outright entering game
21:41number two.
21:41You probably should like that price the same way we talked about the Celtics price.
21:44But I've got to tell you, like, the different feels.
21:46Like, the Celtics just had an epically bad game and lost.
21:49It's like, ah, they'll be fine, the Knicks are a solid ball club.
21:51But on the opposite side, like, I love that's all the Pacers.
21:54And I think the Pacers in this level at ground number two, probably the least respected team
21:58out of most teams right now.
21:59And they played well.
22:00So for me, I'm not excited.
22:02I love the Cavaliers.
22:03I'm not excited by that price point.
22:04And the prices overall to win the Eastern Conference, to win the NBA championship,
22:08haven't changed all that much.
22:11Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference finals last year.
22:13Yeah, they got swept by the Celtics, but they still got there.
22:16We now head to Minneapolis.
22:17Up next, our final conference semifinal series starts tonight in the Twin Cities.
22:23It's the Timberwolves and the Warriors in game number one of this second round set.
22:28Again, in our first three game ones here in the second round of the NBA playoffs,
22:32the road team is a pretty hefty dog, has won an outright.
22:36The Pacers getting eight and a half.
22:37The Knicks in OT last night against the reigning champs getting nine points.
22:41And the Denver Nuggets, a double-digit dog, winning outright in OKC.
22:46Will that follow suit tonight?
22:48As we see the Golden State Warriors as a six and a half point dog tonight in the Twin Cities
22:53against the T-Wolves with a total now on its way up ever so slightly to ten and a half.
23:00The series outright odds.
23:02More people buying into the Timberwolves.
23:03But in terms of this game one spread, DRS, a little bit of love for Golden State,
23:08at least to keep things close and competitive in game number one.
23:10And again, here's what we're lining up on this one.
23:13So are we getting the fool's gold where everybody's like,
23:15ah, play one, take the dogs, and everything works out to your favor,
23:18and then you get stumped in this one because Minnesota's like,
23:20no, we're rested and we're ready.
23:22We're going to equal the – or go against the trend of what's taking place
23:25with some of these underdog points.
23:26And also, is this the one team that you worry about most?
23:29Because game number seven for Denver was like, okay, veteran team still.
23:32We'll see how they play.
23:33Number one OKC.
23:34They played really well and ended up winning that game.
23:36But you see, like, Steph, how's he going to come out?
23:38Because that wasn't a clean series.
23:40Now, granted, they played the number two overall seed
23:42and played it to a game 7-1, game 7 on their home court
23:44when we saw game number five sort of throw it away
23:47because we know we're going to win game number six,
23:48not to win game number six, and then play good defense
23:51and win game number seven.
23:52Does that hold up?
23:52Because I'm buying.
23:53Like, I'm biting on this one.
23:55Steph's going to be ready.
23:56Jimmy's going to be ready.
23:57Draymond's going to be ready.
23:58And again, you don't have to win the game.
24:00You can play into the final possessions here,
24:01as we saw a couple games last night.
24:03Even though the Dogs won, they still covered those spreads,
24:05even if they would have lost at those margins here.
24:07I have a feeling, though, buying into this Golden State Warriors team
24:11is a little bit tougher than the previous ones that we just watched here.
24:14Not talking about Golden State themselves,
24:15but just round number two and game number ones.
24:17I want to buy the seven, though.
24:18I really do.
24:19And again, you see 65% of the bets right now
24:22in terms of the spread on FanDuel backing Golden State,
24:26expecting the underdog to at least keep this game tightly contested.
24:29Tonight, there is still a world, although it's not the nine points,
24:32the Knicks won outright of the double digits Denver was catching
24:35entering game one last night in Oklahoma City.
24:38Still a world where the Warriors lose this game outright,
24:40but do cover that six-and-a-half point spread.
24:42It would not be the craziest thing to see this decided by a possession or two.
24:46Unlike Denver, who had two full days off after Saturday night
24:50in game seven at altitude.
24:52Of course, they played, I guess, only one day off,
24:54because today's Tuesday.
24:55Never mind, just one day off to play on a Monday night.
24:57Same for Golden State, who played on Sunday evening in Houston.
25:02On the road in that seventh game, winning outright as an ever-so-slight dog.
25:06Held the Rockets to only 89 points.
25:08Some of that inexperience for the Rockets in the postseason,
25:12catching up to them.
25:13Minnesota is not that, DRS.
25:14A team that reached the Western Conference Finals a season ago
25:17was that series outright favorite against Luka Doncic
25:20and the Dallas Mavericks, with a lot of love for the Lakers.
25:24Winning that opening round set,
25:25Minnesota came in as the series underdog,
25:28turned it quickly on its head,
25:30winning in five, pulling off the gentleman's sweep.
25:32And when you talk about confidence,
25:34it's something that Anthony Edwards has for this series.
25:37You're buying into Golden State,
25:38maybe keeping this game one close tonight in Minneapolis.
25:41How do you feel about this second-round series overall?
25:43I do think it's the Minnesota Timberwolves.
25:45And as we started at the top of the hour,
25:46taking a look at where the public was going there.
25:48And of course, usually they go towards the favorites here,
25:50and rightfully so, because Minnesota is the better team,
25:51and they have home-court advantage,
25:53and they're much more rested than the Golden State Warriors.
25:55So granted, you should think they would have the leg up,
25:57but also, it's a championship pedigree team.
26:00The Golden State Warriors are like,
26:01man, it's so great.
26:02Can't even believe we beat the two seed.
26:03Now we're playing with house money.
26:04They're not looking at his house money.
26:06They have rings on their finger, man.
26:07They've got MVP awards here.
26:08They're ready to take it to the next step,
26:10and also, still getting into the challenge of,
26:12how good are the Minnesota Timberwolves?
26:13Last time I checked,
26:15World Championships not really there.
26:16Anthony Edwards is a superstar.
26:18We're always laughing at Rudy Gobert doing things,
26:20and you can muscle him,
26:21and let Rudy Gobert as an absolutely monstrous game number five
26:24and how does that prevail?
26:25But there's one angle also
26:26where we take a look at some of these sucker bets
26:28that you could make.
26:29What was the defining moment in game number seven
26:31for the Golden State Warriors?
26:32It wasn't Steph Curry.
26:34It wasn't really Jimmy Butler.
26:35It's Buddy Heald, reigning triples.
26:37So I look at his points prop today,
26:38and I go, hmm, that's interesting.
26:39It's nine and a half.
26:40Where does Buddy do most of his damage from?
26:42The three-point line.
26:43But then again, I'm looking at his number here
26:44to make three-point shots tonight.
26:46Two and a half.
26:46Oh, minus 180.
26:48Yeah, that makes sense.
26:49No, no, no, no, no.
26:50Plus 144.
26:51Where's the setup on this one?
26:53Buddy Heald to make three triples at plus money?
26:55Where's the setup?
26:56Where are we wrong?
26:5712-15 from Buddy Heald
26:58from the floor overall in game seven
27:00to finish with a game-high 33 points.
27:03Nine of 11 from beyond the arc.
27:07We'll talk a little bit more about the props in a second.
27:09Something's a little bit off in the odds right now,
27:11and I think we're trying to find
27:13where we were incorrect earlier on
27:15or at this moment.
27:16Because again, we talked about this
27:18with our producer extraordinaire, Joe Frizzo,
27:20who thought that Minnesota would be favored.
27:22I disagreed because Golden State up 3-1
27:24in their opening round series.
27:26When Minnesota was up 3-1,
27:28we thought the Warriors were going to clinch that
27:30in five in Houston or even in six.
27:32Got a little precarious,
27:33but did win outright in a game seven on the road,
27:36even as a slight dog.
27:39Golden State had a $2 better price.
27:40Six to one to win the Western Conference crowd
27:42at that time.
27:43They were up 3-1 in front of Minnesota,
27:46who was also up 3-1 on the Lakers,
27:48eight to one number.
27:49We knew that if that was going to be the series,
27:52regardless of the duration for either team,
27:55that Minnesota was going to have home floor advantage.
27:57Minnesota was the series underdog against the Lakers.
28:00They were the one pulling off the upset.
28:02You get ready for tonight.
28:03The T-Wolves are nearly a $2 series outright favorite.
28:07And Donnie, look at those Western Conference odds.
28:09Golden State is eight to one
28:10to win the Western Conference crowd.
28:12A longer price,
28:13even advancing a round
28:15than they did entering round number one.
28:18So where are we wrong?
28:19Were we wrong earlier in the opening round sets?
28:22And maybe Golden State not as good as we thought
28:23because it took them seven games
28:25to beat the Rockets
28:26and Minnesota beat the Lakers in five?
28:29That's what I'm trying to figure out right now.
28:32I think we always were in love
28:33with the postseason pedigree
28:34of these Warriors,
28:35Steph, Draymond,
28:36and that playoff experience,
28:38maybe not in San Francisco,
28:40but that Jimmy Butler does possess.
28:42So what are we missing here
28:43in terms of the numbers?
28:44I think it's just how wonky round number one was
28:46where it's like,
28:47oh, two seed, seven seed.
28:48Yeah, seven seed's much better
28:49than the seven seed
28:50was supposed to pulverize them
28:51and win in five games.
28:53And it turned out to be seven games.
28:54Are they as good?
28:55And boy,
28:55we didn't know Minnesota was this good.
28:57They handled the Los Angeles Lakers
28:58who were just two men
29:00and Austin Reeves,
29:01give me some points
29:01and nobody else on that team.
29:03And the perfect setup was
29:04the Timberwolves actually had a center
29:05and the Lakers don't.
29:06That's probably going to change a little bit
29:08with the physicality coming into the series.
29:09But you're right about it.
29:10The love for the Warriors
29:11in round number one
29:12doesn't seem to be there
29:13in round number two.
29:14And I didn't love the love
29:15for the Warriors
29:15entering the NBA postseason
29:17even before the play-in tournament
29:19understanding
29:20what they would have in their way.
29:22But if you had that optimism
29:24before we even started playoff action
29:26and maybe it took you seven games
29:27but you advanced to round two,
29:29I actually think there is some value
29:30on Golden State's number
29:32entering the start
29:33of the conference semifinals tonight.
29:34Some best bets
29:36around the NBA postseason up next.
29:39Live right here
29:40on the early line
29:41on Sports Grid.
29:42He's Donnie Wright's side.
29:44I am Ben Stevens.
29:45Live in studio,
29:46in person together.
29:47We'll do it again
29:48later this week as well.
29:50DRS, before we go here,
29:51we're going to give people
29:52some best bets
29:53from around the NBA postseason.
29:56Major League Baseball as well.
29:58So let's not bury the lead
30:00any further.
30:01It's time now
30:01for Bye Bye Bye.
30:02All right.
30:10Full Major League Baseball
30:11slate on this Tuesday.
30:12Even an extra game,
30:13a doubleheader in D.C.
30:1516 games in total.
30:17All 30 MLB teams in action.
30:19A doubleheader of NBA
30:20playoff games tonight as well.
30:22Game two in Cleveland.
30:24Game number one in Minnesota
30:26between the Timberwolves
30:27and the Warriors.
30:28Where do you look
30:29for your best bet, DRS,
30:30on this Tuesday?
30:30Yeah, we've got a couple.
30:31Do you want to just rip through?
30:32Do we do NBA first?
30:34Major League Baseball first?
30:35Why don't we go
30:35Major League Baseball first
30:36at this point right now?
30:37Two games to take a look at.
30:38And again, some games
30:39that we might not have previewed,
30:39some that we have.
30:40Take a look at the Philadelphia
30:41Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays today.
30:43Zach Wheeler versus Rasmussen.
30:44This game is in the heat
30:45and humidity in Tampa,
30:46but two pretty good pitchers
30:48on the mound.
30:48They get some lineups
30:49that can be held down.
30:50I don't think we get
30:51nine runs in Tampa tonight.
30:52I'll go under eight and a half
30:53as play number one
30:54in Major League Baseball.
30:55And then we also talked
30:56about the other one here.
30:57The San Diego Padres
30:57on the road
30:58to take on the New York Yankees.
30:59I have the better pitcher
31:00on the mound
31:00in Michael King over Schmidt.
31:02Not a great lineup
31:03on either side.
31:04That game probably stays under,
31:05but how about a minus 112 price
31:06here on the road team?
31:07The Padres,
31:08I'll take that as well
31:09for a little bit more
31:09baseball action today.
31:11I love that, DRS.
31:12I don't have a Major League
31:13Baseball best, Ben.
31:14I don't host pro baseball today,
31:15so I'll let you handle that.
31:17So I'll get us started
31:17in the NBA playoffs tonight
31:19as well.
31:20Something you said
31:21at the very end
31:22of our breakdown
31:22of this series
31:23between the Timberwolves
31:24and the Warriors.
31:25We saw Minnesota
31:26be dominant over L.A.
31:28because of the lack
31:29of center or interior presence
31:31for J.J. Redick
31:32and the Lakers.
31:33It was the main storyline
31:34in Game 4
31:35and certainly in Game 5
31:36when Rudy Gobert
31:37had a 27-point,
31:3924-rebound performance
31:41to lead Minnesota
31:42to the Gentleman's Sweep
31:43over L.A.
31:44Where does Golden State
31:45lack as well
31:46in terms of their lineup
31:47and roster construction?
31:49Size down low.
31:50Draymond Green
31:51can play it,
31:52but they normally play
31:53a lot of small ball.
31:55I expect Rudy Gobert
31:56to have a really good series.
31:58The Warriors,
31:58a much better defensive team
31:59than the Lakers
32:00ever are at this moment
32:02in Los Angeles.
32:03But if we're going
32:04to see Rudy Gobert
32:04play well,
32:05I also think
32:06the interior presence
32:07of Julius Randle
32:08is a big reason
32:09Minnesota is favored tonight.
32:10Laying six and a half
32:11points in game number one.
32:13Favored to win this series
32:14outright as well.
32:16Randle,
32:16who was great
32:17for Minnesota
32:18in those five games
32:19against the team
32:20that drafted him
32:20in the Lakers,
32:2122 or more
32:23in the final four games
32:24of that series,
32:25including a 23-point performance
32:27in game number five
32:28to clinch that set.
32:30Give me Julius Randle
32:31over 20 and a half points
32:33tonight, DRS,
32:33for the Timberwolves
32:34in game number one
32:35against Golden State.
32:35Makes some sense.
32:36It certainly does.
32:37For me,
32:37I'll take a look also
32:38at the Indiana Pacers
32:39here getting the nine points.
32:40I think they stay
32:41within that margin
32:41and also an under
32:42of 229 and a half,
32:44which means that I think
32:45that game is going
32:45to slow down just a bit
32:46because you have
32:47the urgency coming
32:48from the Cavs' side here.
32:50Also,
32:50game number two,
32:51Buddy Heald
32:51and the Golden State Warriors.
32:52Match them up.
32:53You're over two and a half
32:54three-point shots
32:54and a plus number
32:55and also the Warriors
32:56at plus six and a half.
32:57If you parlay that together,
32:58it's a plus 269 price.
33:01I always like to say this, Ben.
33:02When an athlete
33:03that plays at a high level
33:05has a great shooting night
33:06in the NBA,
33:07he doesn't go,
33:08now is my chance
33:09to let Pudziemski
33:10get off now.
33:10No, he wants to shoot again.
33:12So if I'm anticipating
33:13six three-point shots
33:14taken from Buddy Heald,
33:16I've got to be able
33:17to knock down three of those
33:17because they're probably
33:18going to be wide open.
33:19It is interesting
33:19because Buddy Heald
33:20performed so well
33:21in game seven.
33:22Was he doing that
33:23the entirety of the opening round
33:24set against Houston?
33:25No.
33:26But when you come off
33:27nine made threes,
33:28to get a third of those
33:31does not seem overly crazy
33:33for this Golden State side.
33:35I wonder what the Warriors
33:35starting five
33:36is going to look like tonight.
33:37I wonder what a couple
33:38of those rotational matchups
33:39are going to be
33:40because of the size
33:41and physicality
33:43of Minnesota.
33:45Donnie,
33:45we'll talk about it
33:45more tomorrow as well.
33:47Or you'll talk about it
33:48more tomorrow as well.
33:49Entering game number two
33:50in Oklahoma City,
33:52Thunder and the Nuggets
33:53after Denver wins
33:54outright as a double-digit dog.
33:55Same story,
33:56of course,
33:57inside TD Garden
33:57for the Celtics
33:59and the Warriors.
34:00Both teams,
34:01Boston and Oklahoma City,
34:03stronger favorites
34:03for game number two
34:04than they were
34:05in game one,
34:06needing it as necessary
34:08to get those
34:08opening two-game splits.
34:10Same kind of story
34:11for Cleveland.
34:12They were an eight-and-a-half
34:13point favorite
34:13for game one,
34:15laying nine right now.
34:16You would think
34:16that if the Cavaliers
34:18are going to win this game
34:19comfortably to even up
34:20the series,
34:21it starts in the opening half.
34:22Cleveland a five-and-a-half
34:23point favorite
34:24for those opening two quarters.
34:25That's absolutely
34:25the way to go,
34:26no doubt about it,
34:27because you've got to
34:27set the tone
34:28on your home court here.
34:29It's one of those,
34:29like,
34:29oh,
34:29let the Pacers run out
34:30to an eight-point lead.
34:31That doesn't make any sense.
34:32And by the way,
34:32tomorrow's games,
34:3310 and 11.
34:34If I ask you right now,
34:35what's the propensity
34:35for a blowout situation for me?
34:37It's probably the Knicks
34:38getting blown out more
34:39than the Denver Nuggets.
34:40And I still think
34:41there would be a lot
34:42of enthusiasm,
34:43even if New York
34:44does not look great
34:44tomorrow night
34:45inside TD Garden
34:46to head to the other garden.
34:48That would be
34:48Madison Square.
34:49He is Donnie Wright's side.
34:50I am Ben Stevens.
34:52Hope you enjoyed this Tuesday
34:53on the Early Line
34:54on Sports Grid.
34:55Show returns tomorrow
34:568 a.m. Eastern.