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00:00We start with the night game though here as we try and go
00:03through all of our remaining breakdowns and picks for what
00:08should be two excellent we hope will be two excellent games
00:13later today. Duke is a five and a half point favorite total in
00:18this game is 136 and a half. Tell me Joe, besides you like
00:24here, maybe who the x factor of this game is?
00:26Yeah, I like Houston plus the points. But again, outright in
00:30terms of the money line, I'm a little skeptical. I still think
00:34Duke could potentially win a very close game, you know,
00:37maybe, you know, coach said in this in the 50s, or 60 63 60. In
00:42terms of that matchup, I actually think could be a little
00:45bit higher 73 70. For both of these teams, but I like Houston
00:49with the points. I think LJ Cryer, to me is the x factor
00:53when he scores there in these games defensively as well. I
00:57told you when they when he struggled against Purdue, they
01:00were on life support when he breaks out he has 17 points that
01:03opens up sharp that opens up everybody else in terms of their
01:07offense. I still think they're battle tested. I like them going
01:10into this ballgame coach. I think three point defense is an
01:14x factor for me. 27% they've held opponents in this
01:18tournament. We know that Duke likes to shoot the three, they
01:21might win but give me the points with the Cougars. I like
01:24them now that we're up into that area five points. Yeah, I mean,
01:27I've been on Houston, like I said, better part of two months.
01:31So I'm not I'm not coming off and I like Houston plus two
01:34points. And I'll take them on the money line today. I just
01:37think this is a style fight that I don't think Duke is prepared
01:42for you think about, you know, my years of coaching. You
01:46sometimes you can't, you can't simulate it like you just you
01:51what are you gonna do? You're gonna put like NBA guys like in
01:55regards to like thickness and how big and quick they move and
01:58say, all right, go against these guys and practice. You can't do
02:01it. So to me, styles make fights. I think this is obviously
02:05Houston plus points for the money line. And Joe,
02:07unfortunately, I think this game's dead under. I think this
02:10game is going to be a heavyweight fight. I think it's
02:15going to be every fight in which they're not throwing bombs right
02:19away. There's going to be six, seven minutes of just feeling
02:22each other out. And kind of seeing where where the gaps are
02:27where we can get things to kind of give us an advantage. And I
02:31think this game is gonna be played so tight and so close.
02:34Because Calvin Simpson can't let this game get away from him. I
02:37think it slows down half court, either team presses a lot. I
02:41think this game goes under.
02:43So for me, one of the guys that I felt would be an x factor is
02:47come on out of the watch. And look, I you know, you break into
02:52an NBA breakdown. If this kid went off the board second
02:55overall, I don't think I would think that's nuts. seven foot
02:59two can move on the perimeter can actually shoot it a little
03:02bit. Great rim protector finishes every lob under the
03:06sun. No one on Houston matches up with him really size for size.
03:15Certainly not in that starting lineup. Juwan Roberts is a
03:19great college big. He's six foot eight. Jojo Tugler, one of the
03:24best defensive players in the country is six foot eight. These
03:27guys are very long. But they are not as big and as much of a
03:34presence as few are as big as my watch. However, and what helped
03:43push me over the line even more to Houston is all being a small
03:48sample size. These type of matchups have not been all that
03:54kind to Maliwatch. He struggled mightily against Clemson and
03:59actually fouled out of that game. Finished with just three
04:02points, five rebounds and five fouls. A physical matchup, a
04:06very young player, maybe a little overzealous, and you end
04:11up fouling. Auburn much earlier in the year only played 15
04:15minutes finished with two and three, Kansas four and one.
04:18That's the one. So I think that if I'm wrong on Maliwatch, when
04:24I'm playing under 16 and a half points and rebounds, I'm going
04:28to be wrong across the card. He could be an x factor in this
04:31game. Cooper's favorite lob threat, right? They run the
04:34pick and roll with him all day. Houston's going to be ready for
04:37it. They will. And look, it's not my favorite bit of analysis,
04:39but I do think he's gonna catch a couple of elbows in the ribs.
04:41I do. And I think that could be a little bit jarring when you're
04:45just playing these up and down NBA games against Bama and
04:48Arizona. I think we see the Cougars certainly cover the five
04:53and a half. I still believe they win this game, Joe.
04:55No, I agree with Dan. That's why I like Cooper Flagg for the
04:58assist, because what you said with Maliwatch, you know, the
05:01alley oops and the ability to play maybe more of a half court
05:05style that they're going to have to work for open shots. And
05:09that's why I still like Cooper Flagg. I took a look at the
05:12assist market. I know you disagree, but plus 124 for six
05:16assists, you can get plus 430 for eight assists in terms of
05:20this matchup. So pretty good value on Cooper Flagg. I still
05:23go with Knipple for the points. I told you he's the hot hand.
05:27He's averaged 20 and a half over the last two games. I think he
05:30could break out potentially from three point land as well. I like
05:34him a little bit better than Proctor. But here's the other
05:38thing, Kevin and coach that we talk about. We talk about the
05:41totals for Duke, right? Yeah. You know, high total against
05:46Arizona. Another high total against Baylor, right? 150 149.
05:51We've seen we saw 126 and a half from 121 and a half Houston in
05:56Tennessee. Now we're up to 136 and a half, right? We're getting
06:00basically almost 20 points of discount from a Duke total. And
06:04we're and we're, we're about three or four points higher than
06:07what a Houston total typically is in that area. 133 and a half,
06:12right? I like points here, coach. I know it might be a
06:15feeling out process, but I still feel and this is where maybe we
06:19could disagree. But I feel Duke is much better in transition
06:24than Tennessee was. And, you know, do we really believe that
06:28Lanier that shot one of the 11 to start, right? Do we do we
06:33feel Knipple, Proctor, and even Flagg are going to start that
06:36way against Houston? I just don't see it. That's why I like
06:39the over. You know,
06:40listen, you make valid points in regards to the offensive
06:43acumen of the team, but there is no team that I can remember in a
06:50long time that gets you to play their way. Like Houston, they
06:56just, it's something of what they do. And it becomes
07:01incredibly frustrating when you have the ball and they're on
07:07you and they're on you and they're on you. And unless it's
07:10a steal, it's a rebound. Walk it up. Don't get it to your
07:15office. So about 16 seconds, try and score, make you rinse and
07:20repeat. I just think Duke is going to be in a spot where
07:23they're just, they're going to be very uncomfortable. And for
07:27these young kids, the first of them being comfortable all
07:29season.