The GOP candidates in two special congressional elections in Florida won on Tuesday, but with much slimmer margins than the incumbent Republicans won by in November. Shontell Smith, partner at Tusk Strategies, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the election results.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Chantel Smith, partner at Tusk Strategies. Chantel, thank you so much for joining me again.
00:13Thank you for having me.
00:15Republicans won in two special congressional elections in Florida over the week, but there
00:21is a silver lining here for Democrats. The Republican candidates won by much slimmer
00:26margins than the Republican incumbents did back in November. So what do you make of the news?
00:33I don't make anything of the news yet. I think it's too early to make anything of the news.
00:38Yes, Republicans performed not as well as Trump did in November, but we're in, you know, we're
00:44in, I guess, April now. And, you know, though the administration has made some drastic moves
00:51in terms of their policy, I don't think yet we know how the American public as a whole feels.
00:58Yes, Democrats were enthusiastic. Yes, Democrats raised more money in Florida.
01:03But we had the same momentum in November. And how did it turn out for Democrats?
01:08So I don't think I think it's way too soon to put anything into these results.
01:14And that's a really interesting point, because I talked to a GOP strategist and he said,
01:18hey, we were sweating until the results came in on Tuesday. But it's still a win. It's still a
01:24very comfortable win. And those districts are still reliably red. And then I talked to the
01:29Florida, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party, and she said that this was a historic
01:33overperformance. It's showing Democrats tossing away President Trump's agenda.
01:38You're shaking your head. So you're thinking I think that's a little overblown.
01:43Yeah, I think this is just like, you know, party,
01:48party wishful thinking. Yes, I think Democrats right now as a whole, we've discussed this,
01:53they need to feel good about something. So maybe this is the rallying cry, like, hey,
01:58I know it seems weary and bleak. But look, we are making strides. We did win in Wisconsin.
02:03So you know, yes, we're on the up and up. But I still think it's way too early. We need to
02:10see the impacts of some of these policies, like really see the impacts on the economy.
02:15You know, immigration, we just need to see more. I think as American public there hasn't been Oh,
02:20there's been some polling, but not overwhelming polling that shows that Trump's in trouble,
02:25and that the American people are just, you know, done with him. He's still a very powerful
02:31president. And as there's a famous saying, like a win is a win. So you know what, they still have
02:37the majority in the house. It's slim majority. I think that Trump, I think the President has
02:41made the decision to pull Elise Stefanik's appointment. But at the end of the day,
02:48they're still in power. Yeah, and to your point, a win is a win and millions of dollars were poured
02:54into both of these races. There was an op ed in Bloomberg that came out entitled this Democrats
02:59wasted donors money in Florida. This came out on Wednesday. And it said this instead of lavishing
03:04huge sums on special elections, they have no chance of winning. Democrats need to invest for
03:09the long term in the sunshine state. And a Democratic strategist was quoted in this column
03:14calling the millions Democrats spent on these races, donor abuse and an unethical use of
03:19resources. What's your thoughts on spending all this money in races? That? Yes. Did they
03:24close that gap? Yes. But is there still a big gap? Also? Yes. You know, I think it's
03:31it's not the it's not the route I would apply. Florida has always been I can't remember like
03:39since what I think since Bush, Florida has been a Republican. It you know, back in the day,
03:45it used to be, you know, maybe a swing state. It has been fully read. So I think they said in
03:50one of the races was 12 million dollars raised for the Democrat nominee. And I think the
03:58Republic. I mean, I'm sorry. Yes. Twelve million for the Democratic nominee and one million for
04:03the Republican. Twelve million dollars on what you lost by four. I don't see that as a win.
04:09I think people are going to have fatigue of the Democrats consistently asking for money
04:15and losing in races that they shouldn't be performing in any ways. Focus on this. Focus
04:23on swings, swing states that basically can be winnable. Florida is not a winnable state.
04:29So I think it's this abuse. And I think people are going to get sick and tired of giving money,
04:34especially in this economy. We just have the tariffs. Everything's about to get real expensive.
04:40People are going to be more judicious and how they give donations. I know I'm being more judicious
04:45and that's going to have long term implications on the Democrats. So they should be mindful of
04:51the money that they are spending with that in mind. I mean, when you're talking about these
04:56tariffs, everyone's saying every economist is saying Americans will have less disposable income.
05:02And to your point, that could be less disposable income than they could give to a campaign. Then
05:06they can donate. So knowing that, I mean, what should Democrats be doing when it comes to the
05:12midterms here? And I know we are miles and miles away from the midterms, but can they learn
05:16anything from these races? I think you can learn from these races is this being more strategic and
05:22when you're spending your money. Look, I think in the presidential campaign, there was outpouring
05:26of fundraising that went to Vice President Harris. But we didn't really see anything because she lost
05:33in all these swing states. And I am a huge Kamala Harris supporter. However, I think they could have
05:40been more strategic, maybe reduce the size of swing states you go for, maybe being strategic
05:44and doing one or two. Look at the numbers. Look at who comes out to vote. Look at your get out
05:49the vote operation. Right now, I don't think that Democrats need to spend or like, you know,
05:55really fundraise. I'd work on fundraising and getting money. But I would also work on you can
06:00do things to disrupt the Republicans without spending money. You don't need to throw it all
06:04in special elections. We just saw Cory Booker do a historic, I don't know, 25 hours or I don't know,
06:10he beat the record for filler busting. There are things you can do that don't cost money.
06:15And I think the Democrats need to internally get their house in order, figure out how they're
06:20spending the consultants, they're spending their money on and how they're going to get people to
06:25feel that they're talking about working class issues and helping the working class.
06:30Let's talk about that, because aside from on the same day that the Florida special elections
06:35happened, Cory Booker was on the Senate floor giving that historic speech for marks for 25
06:41hours, over 25 hours, breaking that record, not even leaving to go to the bathroom. So how do
06:46Democrats what can Democrats then learn from that type of that type of politicking? Yeah,
06:53I think that take it back to basics. Resistance doesn't have to be expensive. Resistance can be
06:59not think about the civil rights movement. Think about when you know, in the 60s and 70s,
07:04when people were really like fighting, fighting the power, they didn't have money. It wasn't
07:09millions of dollars thrown in campaigns, it was grassroots. And what the Democrats need to read
07:14realize is that there's a disconnect with the working class and people who create the movement,
07:20the movement can't be created from top to bottom, it has to be created bottom up. And I think once
07:26we realize that once they realize that as a party, they can figure out ways to be strategic,
07:31get grassroots and the people involved. And then let the let the enthusiasm bubble up. But you
07:38don't manufacture enthusiasm through paying consultants and spending money on political ads.
07:44I think this is a really interesting conversation here, because you're really
07:48not impressed by that gap closing here. You're impressed with
07:53Do you think Democrats them when they say this is historic, we are overperforming?
07:58Do you think that they really believe that they're lying? They're misguided? I mean,
08:02what do you think when they say that? Look, I do. I think they're happy to see
08:07Democrats overperforming in areas that they didn't perform well in November. Yes, that's great. But
08:14then you have to ask yourself, well, why are they overperforming now? Is it because it's a better
08:18candidate? Is it because, you know, better candidates where they feel more aligned with?
08:23Do you feel maybe there's been a switch in messaging? Or maybe the president's actions
08:27are what's causing that? You have to first figure that out before you can claim victory.
08:31And if you don't know why there's a greater performance by the Democrats,
08:34you can't say it's because they just love the party and what the party's doing is right.
08:38There has to be some real deep, you know, soul searching to figure out what's going on within
08:44the party. And I'm not impressed because all politicians caught, we are taught as consultants.
08:51And I think politicians know everything is historic. Everything is great. You're using
08:57terminology just to basically catch someone's eyes. But in reality, instead of losing by 30
09:03points, you lost by 14 points. It's still a loss. I wouldn't be proud. I mean, that I had a
09:10conversation just about the Florida special elections. And I said it reminded me of my
09:14pickleball game over the weekend. The first game, I lost nine zero. The second game, I lost nine
09:19three. So you can see a slight improvement, but it's not enough. It is still a blowout loss.
09:25Do you think it's bad messaging then to be celebrating a loss, but a loss by less?
09:31It's a creative it's creative messaging because the average person, the average person is not in
09:37the average person. It's not paying attention to what's happening in Florida, Wisconsin.
09:40The average person cares about what happens at home, what happens in the local community
09:44and how politics impacts them. I think it's I always say it's creative messaging.
09:48If my husband runs a race and he comes in third place, but there were only three people,
09:52it's a loss. But when you say I came in third place, it sounds like it wasn't a competitive
09:56race. So I applaud them for thinking creatively, because if I'm not paying attention to politics
10:02outside of my bubble, it looks like, wow, there is some momentum. But they've got to figure out
10:08how to get the momentum internally from the people and keep it for two years.
10:13And do you think that they can keep it then from this week? You're looking at
10:17some Dem wins here with that win in Wisconsin with the Supreme Court seat with Cory Booker
10:23breaking that record, capitalizing on that. Do you think that these wins minor as you make them?
10:28Do you think that this is a flash in the pan moment or can you
10:31capitalize them as a Democrat to start shifting the tide?
10:36I think you start shifting the tides. I think the moment where Democrats can shift the tide
10:43to seeing how these tariffs impact people. The economy is the number one issue for Americans
10:48right now. They don't care about anything else. So I think seeing the impacts of the tariffs,
10:52I saw that China is doing a counter tariff on us. So seeing how that impacts goods that we buy
10:59every day, that's going to be the thing that maybe changes the momentum for Democrats.
11:04But again, is how do they take advantage of it? Are they creative? Is it gimmicky stuff?
11:10Or is it real stuff to be like showing people and educating how they can fight back? So it's
11:15to be determined for me. I'm not you know, I don't want to claim victory on anything.
11:20I think a win is a win. And you have to give the Republicans
11:24credit for winning and maintaining their majority.
11:28My final question to you, then, is how do Democrats capitalize on this tariff news
11:33here? Because I was asking a Democratic congressman, hey, do you think this is
11:38a political death sentence for Republicans, these tariffs, the way they're shaking out,
11:42the way the markets are reacting, the way Americans are responding, the way the world
11:47leaders are responding? And he said, I don't really care about the political messaging here.
11:51I care about how it's going to impact the American people. How do you think Democrats
11:55take this moment? We should be educating people about the tariffs, understanding why groceries
12:02cost more. Why is your used automobile going to cost more? You know, they need to educate.
12:09You know, on Fox News right now, they're educating their population like, hey,
12:13this is a commitment. You know, we have to like it. It's going to be, you know,
12:16increased prices. But there's a reason, because in the long run, we're going to get money and
12:20there's going to be a return in our investment. What are the Democrats saying to counter that
12:24messaging? I always watch both sides. I'm not seeing anything to counter it. I'm hearing the
12:30tariffs are bad. Well, what's our solution? What are we going to do as a party? How do we fight
12:35back? You know, you're not hearing that. You're not hearing anything right now. And that's the
12:40problem with Democrats. And I know I sound like a broken record, but I still don't feel the movement
12:46is at the ground level. And until it gets there and until everyone starts going to the local store,
12:52feeling the pain and then saying, hey, this is, you know, community town halls, forums,
12:57getting people involved. Right now, there's like some cognitive dissonance and people just
13:03tuning out of politics. And that's where the Democrats need to get them back involved and
13:07engaged. And as a voter, especially I know voters think, how is X, Y or Z going to impact
13:14me directly, whether it be my wallet, my livelihood, this, that or the other.
13:19So it sounds like you want to see Democrats speak directly to a voter.
13:24This is how tariffs are going to impact you. This is going to be the cost of drinks. This
13:29is going to be the cost of food, something like that to make it more realistic.
13:34Yes. There's so many things going on. You know, you hear them talk about Social Security. You
13:39hear them talk about Medicaid. These are things that impact everyday people. Everybody was told
13:46when you were born, you once you're working age, you work. This money goes to the federal
13:49government. When you retire, you're going to have that money. That's in jeopardy right now.
13:55The tariffs are costing everything to go expensive. So if everything costs more,
13:58do I have to work more? If I have less money for my kids and my family, what does that mean for me?
14:04We are at a turning point in terms of our economy. I think tariffs have been done,
14:09universal tariffs have been done three times in history. The two prior times caused recessions.
14:15This is the things that we should be talking about. We're not talking about it as a party.
14:20So my hope is that they start talking about it, they educate and that's how you start building
14:24the momentum. And economists have been saying, hey, these tariffs are bringing us dangerously
14:30close to a recession. I mean, in 2008, do you think it would behoove Democrats to bring up
14:37the memories of 2008, 2009? Do you think people really remember just how bad a recession is and
14:43how badly it impacts you? I think people forget what's not, forget what's not in front of their
14:50nose and you have to remind them. Remember how bad it was to buy houses? You remember the interest
14:54rates? You remember the market plunging? You don't remember the stocks plunging? Like we're
14:58seeing it on Wall Street right now. Wall Street's very volatile. We're showing signs that this
15:03economy is nervous and anxious. And I think either Trump starts realizing it and his advisors say,
15:11hey, we need to course correct. And if he doesn't course correct, Democrats need to take advantage.
15:17Will they do it? I don't know. Never know with them.
15:22Well, Chantel, depending on how it shakes out in a few weeks, I hope you can come back on with me
15:26and discuss exactly what has happened, how Democrats have responded, what you want to
15:31see from them. Chantel Smith, thank you so much for joining me. You are welcome back anytime.