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00:00Merrill Kelly gets to start today against Cookie Carrasco and the Yankees.
00:04New York booked as a minus money home favorite, minus 120.
00:09Total stands at nine and a half.
00:11Pretty lofty total for early April up in the tri-state.
00:15It should be, by the way.
00:1670 degrees expected around first pitch tonight here,
00:19wind blowing out double digits to left field.
00:21So we have all of that environment that we love at Yankee Stadium,
00:23that when the weather is nice and the wind's blowing out there,
00:26it turns into a little bit of a band box.
00:27So having said that,
00:28you look at Merrill Kelly, first start of the season, pretty good.
00:31His ERA, 1.69, ISO power number, weighted on base percentage,
00:34through 23 batters he's faced, very good.
00:37But again, it's just one start on the season.
00:39You flip it over to the other side and you take a look at Carrasco,
00:41not a lot to love about his first start,
00:43because if you just break it down in simplicity,
00:45a 13.5 ERA tells the tale.
00:48Only 11 batters faced, they've hammered him,
00:50ISO, weighted on base percentages, all high there.
00:53But also understand this, we're now getting to the point
00:55where at least we have 10 at-bats or more
00:57against, let's just say, lefty or righty splits here.
01:00You look at the Arizona Diamondbacks entering into this game,
01:03the estimated lineup, at least the top seven,
01:05going up against right-handed pitching this year,
01:07weighted on base percentages as followed.
01:08481, 376, 515, 369, 760, 564, 472.
01:15Small sample size, really good numbers.
01:17Struggling pitcher in his first start, maybe that bodes well.
01:20Now you take a look at the New York Yankees lineup here for you, Ben.
01:22Same thing, Merrill Kelly, though, strong start to the season in his one start,
01:26but weighted on base percentages here for the Yankees.
01:28If you start with Aaron Judge, 406, 467, 489, 435, 554, 858.
01:34In limited at-bats of around 10 at-bats or less on the season
01:37against right-handed pitching.
01:38Just makes sense.
01:39I like the under yesterday in the Bronx.
01:41Today, complete opposite.
01:42I like the over.
01:43The pitching matchups, decent.
01:45Hitting weather, should be there.
01:46Ball should travel.