In this episode of Political Stock Exchange with Rahul Kanwal, we delve into the rising political temperatures in Tamil Nadu ahead of next year's assembly election in the state.
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00:00Good evening and welcome. You're watching the news track. I'm Rahul Kamal the political stock exchange for Tamil Nadu
00:06Which way are the winds blowing?
00:07What's the level of popularity of the chief minister the government the leader of the opposition and where does?
00:13Superstar Vijay fit into the mix in battleground Tamil Nadu that and more coming up on tonight's edition of the political stock exchange
00:24Political temperatures soar in Tamil Nadu
00:30You
00:35Vijay warns of a political storm
00:43Can superstar Vijay make an impact
00:50Who do voters want as next chief minister
01:00Who will be the telepathy of Tamil Nadu political stock exchange
01:08The state of war in Tamil Nadu is heating up with elections next year political temperatures are rising
01:15Superstar Vijay held a general body meeting of his party in Chennai on Friday
01:19where he declared that the
01:212026 assembly elections will be a direct fight between his party the TVK and the DMK
01:26The actor-turned-politician hit out at both chief minister Stalin and Prime Minister Modi in his speech
01:31Can Vijay be the telepathy that Tamil Nadu elections have been built out to be about in the past?
01:37Can you do it again what Karunanidhi MGR and Jayalalitha have done?
01:47It was a year ago that Tamil superstar Vijay debuted as a politician with the launch of his party
01:54Tamil Nadu victory Karagam
01:57You
02:02On Friday to mark the anniversary he held TVK's first general council meeting
02:11Massive cutouts welcoming Vijay were put outside the venue and
02:15The entrance had been designed to resemble the state secretariat
02:21Tamil Nadu goes to polls next year and
02:24Talapathy Vijay made his intent clear
02:28This was the first time that the actor turned politician took on chief minister and DMK chief MK Stalin
02:36directly
02:51A
03:03Vijay is positioning himself as an alternative to the DMK and the NDA in Tamil Nadu
03:09He also had some strong words for the prime minister and his government at the center
03:20You
03:35The DMK has branded Vijay BJP's BT while the BJP in the state is also dismissive of the superstar politician
03:44I
03:59Am GR J Lalitha
04:02Vijaykanth
04:03Kamalhasan and now Vijay
04:06Is Tamil Nadu ready for another?
04:09cinematic political blockbuster
04:11With Anagha Keshav in Chennai, Bureau Report, India Today.
04:21Politics from the battleground state of Tamil Nadu has been in the news the past several
04:26days.
04:27So we commissioned to our pollsters at Sea Voter a series of questions for the political
04:32stock exchange which give you a flavor of which way the political winds are blowing
04:37on the ground in this crucial state.
04:41I want to take question number one and to my mind it is a bit of a shocker.
04:47Here it is on your screen now, a response which will track quite widely across Tamil
04:52Nadu.
04:53Sea Voter has polled for the India Today group and we're now saying that at this moment
04:59Tamil superstar Thalapathy Vijay is actually number two when it comes to the list of faces
05:08in the reckoning to be the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
05:11So you've got MK Stalin at number one, the incumbent Chief Minister at 27% preferred
05:18rating.
05:19Thalapathy Vijay, the Tamil superstar launching a new party looking to make waves on the ground
05:25has come in at a very strong number two.
05:28Remember his party has only recently got started.
05:31He hasn't been tested electorally yet.
05:34Before his first big test he's already at 18% personal popularity.
05:39This is not for his party but on the question of who should be Chief Minister this is not
05:42an insignificant number, 18% is significant.
05:46You've got Palani Samy coming in at 10, the General Secretary of the AIADMK, the leader
05:52of the opposition on the ground.
05:54You've got Kya Annamalai from the BJP in Tamil Nadu, the State President coming in at 9%.
06:00There is a possibility that Palani Samy and the BJP could ally, if that happens those
06:05numbers may change.
06:07But in the way things are at this moment, when Sea Voter polled this week, Stalin came
06:12in at number one at 27% and the big shock there, Thalapathy Vijay who's been doing well
06:18on the ground, rallying crowds, getting people excited and charged up but he's already at
06:23number two at 18%.
06:26So let me introduce you to our guests and then try and make sense of what's at play.
06:29Narayan Lakshman joins us, well known journalist.
06:33We've got Vinod Salwam joining us from the BJP, I've got A. Saravanan joining us from
06:37the DMK, I've Kovai Sathyan joining us from the AIADMK.
06:43Let me go across to Narayan Lakshman first.
06:46Is this in keeping with what you've been picking up anecdotally from the ground, an 18% approval
06:50rating for Chief Minister for Tamil superstar Vijay, do you think he's at this moment in
06:56popularity ratings just next to Stalin?
06:59Look Rahul, I think it's quite possible that those are the results that you've picked up
07:04through surveys.
07:05It's not surprising at all.
07:07The reason for that is Tamil Nadu has a long and colourful history of getting excited about
07:12film stars.
07:13As we know, several of them have made fantastic political careers on the back of entering
07:18through the silver screen.
07:19You can go all the way back to Karnanandi, who was a script writer, or you of course
07:23then have MGR himself.
07:25And then to a smaller extent, and almost failing to make as big a splash in later years, Rajinikanth,
07:31Kamal Haasan, several others made that attempt.
07:34Now, Vijay Talapati again, is in that early phase of his sort of straddling those two
07:40worlds jumping across, and he's certainly magnetic personality in the film world.
07:47And he has dipped his toe into politics in a big way.
07:50Remains to be seen whether that film based adulation amongst supporters, that mass support
07:57base can be converted into political mobilization.
08:01Therein lies the trick and the challenge, and one that has caused many modern day film
08:07based entrants to fail, whereas their predecessors had a much greater magnitude of success.
08:13That's an important aspect that you're highlighting.
08:15The fact that he doesn't have a strong party structure.
08:18The fact that he's got this start-up political formation.
08:20He also has Prashant Kishore backing him of the Jansolaj movement in Bihar.
08:26He's convinced that Vijay can be the next Chief Minister.
08:29How alarming is this Kovai Satyam from the AIADMK's perspective?
08:34Because you would have wanted that Palani Sami be seen as the natural challenger.
08:40At some level, it's a testament to the cult film based popularity of Vijay and the absence
08:47of stature and credibility of Palani Sami to the same extent that when people are asked
08:52who is the alternative, you've got Stalin and then comes in Vijay.
08:59So this is the resultant of the media share that DMK commands in Tamil Nadu.
09:04They command more than 80%.
09:07Whatever news that has to come out, it will only come out from the DMK side and MK Stalin's side.
09:13For the last three years, I've been saying in the rallies wherever I go in Tamil Nadu,
09:16the lead actor in Tamil Nadu is not Vijay, Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan or Rajiv Kumar.
09:21It is MK Stalin.
09:23That's what he has done for the last four years.
09:25So that is a resultant of your survey.
09:28The assembly doesn't show what opposition leader is speaking.
09:32That's much scared the DMK is.
09:34And we don't have any presence in the frontline media.
09:37You know it pretty well, Jo Dikta Hai, Wo Dikta Hai.
09:40And when the entire media is being threatened not to showcase anything that is happening
09:45on the ground and the reality.
09:47So far as an opposition leader, he has given more than 600 press releases which are not taken
09:51into debate, which doesn't being carried out by the frontline media in Tamil Nadu.
09:56You absolutely have zero presence in media.
09:58That's what the reality is.
10:00So when you have a survey, all I would say is rather than preferred CM Kennedy,
10:03if you were asked who is the lead actor in Tamil Nadu, the same result would have come.
10:06MK Stalin would have topped the chart.
10:08Even if you have conducted a survey with Rajinikanth or Rajiv Gandhi.
10:10But that's a rhetorical response to an empirical question.
10:13The fact is, at this moment, Vijay is almost twice Palani Swami's ratings.
10:18And you can ascribe all kinds of motives to why that's the case.
10:21This is the political reality in which you'll have to fight the next election.
10:26I cannot make a generic statement.
10:29I don't know what's your sample survey and what's your age group.
10:32So let's not get into the market research and methodology of how the survey is being
10:36carried out.
10:37I don't want to question it.
10:38I'm just going by the numbers what you have thrown out as your survey results.
10:41But it's too early.
10:42You yourself saying this party doesn't have a structure, Vijay party doesn't have a structure
10:47on the ground.
10:48So it's still a long way to go.
10:49Perception keeps changing faster and politics, you know.
10:52Let Saravanan respond to the AI DMK's charge that basically Vijay is the DMK's B team,
11:01that you're propping him up in the hope that he takes away some of the anti-incumbency
11:05votes and Stalin can then, because the anti-government votes get split, Stalin and the DMK come back
11:12to power.
11:13See, Mr. Vijay is being propped up by the BJP, not anybody else.
11:18He's close to the BJP leaders.
11:19If you look at his speech…
11:20But he says, I heard his speech, he says, at the centre, the BJP is his enemy.
11:24So that's not really factually correct in terms of at least what he's saying publicly.
11:27See, there is a lot of difference, Rahul.
11:31When you say they are somebody's enemy and keeping quiet for what they have done, have
11:35they ever criticised the BJP?
11:37See, all the problems in the state of Tamil Nadu can be directly attributed to the BJP.
11:42The way they are withholding funds, the way they are deceiving the people of Tamil Nadu,
11:48everything is attributed there.
11:49The way they trust their policies on a successful model here in the state of Tamil Nadu.
11:53But why is he keeping quiet?
11:55And like filmy style, today he makes a statement, oh, they are saying that I have not spoken
11:59about taking names.
12:01I am saying now, Modi ji, you are my allergy.
12:06Is this how you criticise?
12:08In politics?
12:09Maybe in films, yes, but not in politics.
12:12And people of Tamil Nadu, a discerning set of people with great intellect, I don't
12:16think they are going to swayed away by what Mr. Modi is saying.
12:20Again, you are giving a rhetorical response to a database question, sir, within a short
12:25while.
12:26And hear my question before you respond.
12:27Within a short while of this new party getting established, its leader Vijay comes in at
12:32number two already, ahead of an established player like Phalani Samy.
12:37If I was strategising for the DMK looking at those numbers, you would be quite concerned.
12:41You should be quite concerned.
12:42No, that's what.
12:43See, I wouldn't be concerned.
12:44Because if at all somebody has to be concerned, that is the ADMK party, if at all.
12:49See, likewise, the fight is always between the DMK and the ADMK.
12:55Whatever is said and done about the ADMK, the weak leadership, the way they have surrendered
12:59themselves to the BJP, the point is, they have a symbol, the two leaf symbol, which
13:04is very powerful and the organisational support up to the village level, they have organisational
13:08support.
13:09That in an election, see, this is not a presidential referendum, where, you know, you choose the
13:14CM candidate directly, it is through the MLAs.
13:17The MLAs are elected through the symbols.
13:18No, but it's happened in the past with MGR, with Jai Lalitha, with Karunanidhi.
13:23So it's not new, especially in the context of Tamil Nadu politics.
13:26Yes, Rahul, you touched a very, very valid point.
13:29Yes, Mr. MG Ramachandran became the chief minister.
13:32He did not become the chief minister in 1976 by forming a party in 1975.
13:37He was speaking about, he was associated himself with the ADMK for 20 years.
13:41He spoke an ideology, he identified himself with that ideology, same with Selvijaya Jai
13:45Lalitha.
13:46He did not start a party and become a chief minister overnight, except Mr. N.T.
13:50Amar of Indian politics.
13:52Nobody else has started a party in one year and has dreamt to become the chief minister
13:57in the next year and have been successful.
13:58That is not possible in Indian politics, Indian context.
14:01It's a different ball game altogether.
14:03So it's not possible.
14:04And it's certainly not in the state of Tamil Nadu at all.
14:07Vinod Selvam, from the BJP's lens, the fact that Talapathy Vijay has left the likes of
14:14Annamalai far behind his double Annamalai's ratings, do you think that's inevitable given
14:18the fact that he is the reigning superstar of Tamil Nadu politics?
14:24Rahul, let's very clearly remember that the TVK, Vijay's political party, is still
14:32in kindergarten when we talk about politics.
14:35Here in Tamil Nadu, the culture of cinema, cinema is celebrated like a religion.
14:40So people have a huge fan following, they say names, all that.
14:44But when it comes to elections, the scenario is entirely different.
14:48There was a very popular comedian called Vadivelu.
14:51He had won the hearts of everyone alike.
14:53He had no haters.
14:55But when he came out and campaigned for the DMK in 2011, DMK had the biggest defeat they
15:00had ever met in the last 20 years.
15:02But Vijay is Vijay.
15:03So cinemas have crowds coming towards them saying Vijay is Vijay.
15:06His stardom at this moment, sir, is comparable to Rajinikanth.
15:10Vijay is Vijay.
15:11Let it be, let it be.
15:14But a political party needs an organization, an organization which takes years of building,
15:21an organization which needs to come from the grass root.
15:23It is not something which is being formed by just giving statements once in three months,
15:29going and doing work from home politics, garlanding leaders' photos on stage inside your house
15:35in Paniyur under the, you know, inside a 12 feet compound.
15:38That is not politics.
15:40Politics takes a lot.
15:43Let me ask Narayan Laxman a question.
15:45Do you think Vijay has worked enough on trying to build an organizational structure?
15:51Does he have what it takes to do the back end work required to build a party?
15:58You don't mute.
15:59Sorry, I just said we witnessed an interesting phenomenon, both DMK and BJP agreeing on one
16:06thing, which is that you need to work in politics, whether it's through the mode of ideology
16:11or party organization to before you can just claim your film and cinema credentials to
16:18boost yourself in the political world.
16:20And I think in that regard, Vijay definitely has a lot of homework to do.
16:24He has a very steep catching up curve because he's I don't you're absolutely right to say
16:30he is the reigning superstar of the moment.
16:32There's no doubt there.
16:33But again, even look at Rajinikanth.
16:35He faced a tremendous challenge in converting the fan clubs, the mandrams into actual voters.
16:42There's a very...
16:43No, but Rajinikanth never formally joined politics.
16:44He never really threw himself.
16:45He kept towing, tiptoeing, flirting with the idea.
16:46He never dived head on.
16:47That is true.
16:48But if you were on the ground here, you would have been witness to many of the sort of machinations
16:56happening in the background, the attempts to build up a party organization.
17:00Unfortunately, they didn't go far at all.
17:02They never got past the baby steps phase.
17:05And this is the most challenging phase for Vijay, if you ask me.
17:10I think he really is in that liftoff phase where you have to get it off the ground.
17:14And this is also where there are giant gravitational pulls within the realm of Tamil Nadu politics,
17:19which can swallow you up.
17:20The DMK is extremely strong institutionally, down to the village level, as was said in
17:25this panel.
17:26So is the ADMK, although they have this leadership vacuum issue.
17:30And the BJP is no paper tiger.
17:32They have a small footprint at the moment, but they are sparing no effort to build that
17:37up.
17:38So between all of them, it's actually a dangerous sort of ground that he's walking on.
17:43And he's going to have to pick a side very quickly, if he hasn't already, and openly
17:47go with it.
17:48Look, even look at Kamal Haasan.
17:50He was very clear that he, in a larger interest of safeguarding what he described may be...
17:56Which side is Vijay most likely to pick?
17:58Yeah.
17:59What do you mean?
18:00I think...
18:01I don't want to speculate.
18:02As an editor, I shouldn't do that.
18:04But we have to read the tea leaves going forward.
18:07So what are you reading from the tea leaves right now?
18:09Which side is he most likely to pick?
18:11I can't speculate, Rahul.
18:13Sorry.
18:14I don't have the information.
18:15Just rumors that I've heard and I would prefer not to comment on them.
18:18Okay.
18:19The fact is that he's expecting that he would be projected as the main face and that's one
18:22of the reasons why with the AI, DMK, his tie-up hasn't happened.
18:26You can see what he said.
18:27He doesn't like the DMK at the state, doesn't like the BJP.
18:30So the natural alliance would be with a party like the AI, DMK.
18:34But there the issue seems to be he would like to be the main face with the AI, DMK providing
18:39the structure.
18:40The AI, DMK pushing back saying, are you delusional?
18:43You don't even have a structure.
18:44It is our structure you will ride on.
18:45So I think that's really where things are stuck.
18:47But let's come to the next question, which is to do with how do people perceive the performance
18:51of the state governments?
18:53Because after two terms of being in power, is there now anti-incumbency enough which
18:58can upset the DMK's apple cart?
19:01Let's take a look at the response to that question.
19:04When people were asked, how do you rate the performance of the Stalin government?
19:09Just 15% said that they're very satisfied.
19:11Now that's problematic.
19:1215% is a small percentage.
19:15Satisfied to some extent is 36%, which is middling.
19:17Okay.
19:18So we're not terribly disappointed, but we're not very delighted either.
19:22Not satisfied at all is 25%.
19:25That's one in four.
19:27Don't know, can't say is 24%.
19:29That's very high too.
19:31One fourth saying we're not certain.
19:33One fourth saying not satisfied at all.
19:35Those are definitely anti-votes.
19:38Very few percent are very strongly pro-DMK.
19:42The bulk there is 36% saying satisfied to some extent, which means as the campaign builds,
19:48they could stay with the DMK.
19:50They could also switch away, and that's really the challenge.
19:54You can't possibly be, Sarvanan, very happy with those numbers.
19:57The fact that just 15% saying they're very satisfied, and 25% saying not satisfied at
20:04all, and the bulk is somewhere in the middle and somewhere in between, those seem like
20:08very slippery voters to me.
20:10No, no.
20:11Absolutely not at all, Rahul.
20:12So there are only, after four years of governance, almost four years of governance, only 25%
20:17are not at all satisfied.
20:20Of course, you can never satisfy the 100%, then everybody will be ruling the country
20:25for 100 years.
20:26So that is not possible.
20:27This is very, very good.
20:2815% are very satisfied and 36%.
20:31So almost, if you discount this 20%, can't say you can't take them into account at all,
20:38then the majority, 36 plus 15, 51% of the 75, 76%, 76, 51, says they are not against
20:47this government.
20:48I think there is a wonderful report card, it shows, that's what, we keep saying that
20:52there is a problem.
20:53I know you're a lawyer and not a data scientist, but that's an absurd way of reading the data.
20:58The fact is just 15% are saying they're very satisfied, and you've got a bulk saying they're
21:03confused, don't know, can't say, which means they're not delighted with you.
21:07One fourth saying they're not satisfied at all, which means they're definitely against
21:11you.
21:12And 36% saying, aah, theek hai, not too good.
21:15Rahul, yeah, yeah.
21:16I don't know.
21:17How's your English teacher?
21:18When they say, hey, satisfied to some extent, it means they are happy with the government,
21:23they're not unhappy.
21:24So, people who are very happy and happy, it's almost, 51%, you want to go and ask for your
21:30thing.
21:31Sir, forget English, this is not got to do with English, this has got to do with understanding
21:32how data works.
21:33This is English.
21:34No, no, no.
21:35Sir, Mrs. Saravanan, you're trying to hector me.
21:36I'm recovering from a cold, so allow me to speak, allow me to make my argument, I'll allow
21:39you to respond.
21:40Okay, okay.
21:4136% means satisfied to some extent, it doesn't mean that they are confirmed DMK voters.
21:46It means that they're not terribly disappointed, but they're not terribly elated.
21:51Some part of that will come into your kitty, some part will go away, that's what this campaign
21:55will be about.
21:56So, if you've got, in the middle, one third essentially saying, we could go this way,
22:01we could go that way, that is of alarm to the government in power in Tamil Nadu.
22:06No, no, no, no, see, Rahul, I don't know, on what basis?
22:15See, if somebody who knows English, you're going to ask them this question in the state
22:19of Tamil Nadu, this is what they are going to say.
22:22If they are satisfied, then they are happy with this government.
22:25That is what I'm saying, it's 51%, 51% are happy with this government.
22:29That is how you'll have to read this data.
22:30See, we are happy, that's what I'm saying, we know what is there on the ground, how people
22:34are happy with the welfare schemes.
22:36See, one singular example we can give, how popular the schemes are is this.
22:41When you look at these schemes, all these schemes are being copied by the BJP government.
22:47In Maharashtra, they credited the victory to the Ladli Behen, where they gave, I think,
22:531,500 or so.
22:54They said, that is the reason for the victory and in Delhi, they promised 2,500 rupees and
22:58they had a great victory.
22:59We are running that successfully here, it is going to continue for the next year and
23:04we all, on top of that, we have the free bus fare scheme and we have 1,000 rupees for every
23:09girl child.
23:10See, one salient and important aspect of the last four years of governance is the way this
23:16government has worked for the welfare of the women folk.
23:19I am very proud to say, after a long, long time, the women of Tamil Nadu are aligning
23:24themselves.
23:25They are finding that DMK is the party to look forward.
23:29This is the great achievement of our leader Mr. NK Shetty.
23:31Okay, okay, I want to come to the next question.
23:33First, the question was about the performance of the state government.
23:37Let's now pin this down to the Chief Minister and look at how people perceive the performance
23:42of Mr. Stalin.
23:43This is his first term of being in power, earlier it was his father who was in power,
23:48Mr. Karunanidhi.
23:49Now, when the question is asked, are you satisfied with the Chief Minister's performance, 22%
23:56say they are very satisfied, which is higher than the level of satisfaction with his government.
24:01That should give Stalin some joy, that his own personal popularity is 7% more than that
24:06of his government.
24:08Satisfied to some extent is 33%, remember, when the question was asked about the state
24:12government it was 36%, not satisfied at all is 22%, earlier it was about 25%, don't
24:18know, can't say it's roughly the same.
24:20So his personal level of popularity measured by his satisfaction is higher than that of
24:26the state government and that gives some joy to NK Stalin.
24:30What do you make of the fact that Stalin seems to have generated higher satisfaction
24:36ratings, Narayan Lakshman, than his government, 7% is not a small percentage, it's a pretty
24:43big number of people who seem more satisfied with Stalin, the Chief Minister, than with
24:47the Stalin government.
24:48Well, Rahul, I think part of this, if you're looking at psychology of respondents to your
24:54survey as well as the psychology of voters in general, relates to the fact that historically,
25:00Ramanath voters have always liked to have strong leaders in place, part of it relates
25:07to the history of the Dravidian movement itself, which was seen as a dissenting voice to the
25:10mainstream politics that was happening in post-colonial India and a need for certain
25:14caste groups to come together and class groups as well to reassert their rights and talk
25:18about state autonomy and federal politics.
25:21But from that, it also segued into broader elements that touch upon film culture and
25:26seeing hero-like figures, whether it was MGR or Amma or now Stalin, though Stalin of
25:34course doesn't have such a strong film background, but again, perceived as the sole inheritor
25:39of the Dravidian legacy, he's inherited the mantle quite smoothly after his father's time.
25:48The personal popularity stems from the belief that he is possibly seen as a leader who can
25:54speak up for Tamil rights for the Tamil state and specifically in the context of demanding
26:01rights within the federal union that is India in negotiating, for example, to get a fair
26:07share of resources from the Centre for Governance work in Tamil Nadu.
26:11So I think Tamils have, like Saravanan said, a very acute sense of all these things.
26:15They are very sharp and they think deeply about it and they will definitely pick a strong
26:20personality leader.
26:21Even if they feel his party or his government maybe has failed in a few parts, they would
26:26put him above that.
26:27So your result is not surprising in that sense.
26:30The fact that Stalin has emerged as a hero of sorts on the issue of delimitation, on
26:37the issue of pushing back against the Centre, on the issue of language, now those are very
26:41emotional issues in a state like Tamil Nadu and there, forget the charges of corruption
26:47or what they have done or not done, he seems to be making it bigger.
26:51Stalin versus the BJP and that's the pitch that he's got.
26:53So it's not just about local governance and corruption kind of issues, he's making
26:57it a larger fight about Tamil pride and identity.
27:02Rahul, having borrowed more than 3.5 lakh crore in the last four years and acting day
27:12in and day out for the last four years, this is our result, what you can expect?
27:16Why did he not do that?
27:17It's so much of misplaced priorities.
27:18Okay, Saravanan, let him speak.
27:19You can't have two people speak.
27:20No, no.
27:21What kind of…
27:22No, once again.
27:23Saravanan, your fader is down.
27:24Let Kovai Sathyam complete.
27:25I'll come back.
27:26Saravanan, I know, but I remain quiet till such time you've finished.
27:29So let's have that.
27:32This is what you expect.
27:33There are so much of misplaced priorities on the ground realities.
27:36People are waiting for an opportunity to show the door to this DMK government.
27:40If assembly elections were to be held tomorrow, I can give it to you in writing that DMK will
27:44be shown the door in Tamil Nadu.
27:46Okay.
27:47The perception indexes are fast changing.
27:51So precisely for this reason, for the sole reason that we are losing ground, one reason,
27:56primary reason I would attribute is not only the misgovernance and mismanagement and incompetence,
28:01elevation of his son, trying to identify and place his son as a successor to the higher
28:07ranks, that itself has not gone well with their own party.
28:10Let Saravanan respond to the charge of dynasty and nepotism in Udayanidhi, Stalin being built
28:16up as a potential successor.
28:18Sathyam, I'm coming back to you in a moment.
28:20Let Saravanan respond to that.
28:22See, see, there is no nepotism at all, Rahul.
28:26See, you can take in a democracy, you can take someone being son of somebody only to
28:32a certain extent.
28:33Then it is the choice of the people to elect him or not.
28:35If they had seen him as dynast and not someone who is worthy to get their votes, he would
28:41not have won the election.
28:43He won the seat and he is performing very well as the sports minister.
28:47We can't even remember who was the sports minister during the ADMK regime in the last
28:51three years, almost all the international events, so many world championships are being
28:57held in the state of Tamil Nadu.
28:59That is the reason why he was given, he performed very well.
29:02And now he is being made the deputy chief minister and the going is good, the people
29:07have seen.
29:08If, if that is a problem, everything would have reflected in your survey.
29:12Everybody would have said they are not happy, they are not satisfied.
29:15See the opposition, they don't have any political capital, they don't have any political
29:20things to say, they cannot challenge us politically, that is the reason they are making this.
29:25From day one, this is what they have been saying.
29:28They said the same thing about our leader, the chief minister, Mr. MK Stalin.
29:31They said he is a dynast, he cannot rule, now he is the chief minister.
29:35People chose him, they gave him a resounding victory.
29:37Now he is being the proverbial…
29:40Kovai Sathyan, are you concerned that as images do the rounds of Home Minister Amit Shah meeting
29:46with Palani Samy, that the AIADMK which had been seen as one half of the Dravidian argument
29:53then gets very closely associated with the centre and the DMK runs away with the space
29:59for Tamil identity and Tamil pride, pitching it as DMK versus the BJP?
30:04Rahul, I hope I will have the time to answer this question.
30:09Thanks for putting this up now.
30:11It's a checkmate for both DMK and BJP, that's what our leader has done.
30:16Ek patar mein do aankh.
30:18Arey yaar, BJP needs DMK as a standby if Chandra Babu Naidu and Nitish Kumar fails in the run,
30:25so DMK will come as a backup.
30:27So what our leader has done is, he went to Delhi, highlighted the failures and incompetence
30:32of MK Stalin and his failure to retrieve the state rights starting from Meghadadu and the
30:37thousands and thousands of crores of corruption that is happening.
30:41So he has given a list of failures of DMK government and sought the central government's
30:47intervention to take action.
30:49So no, it's a checkmate for BJP, they had to go and take action.
30:52The second point is, narrative after narrative, what MK Stalin is trying to build, saying
30:57that he is a saviour and custodian of Tamil Nadu and Tamil right has been clearly exposed.
31:02What is his call in Meghadadu, nothing has been done.
31:05What has happened to NEET, with one signature it will go away, now he is struggling to make
31:09NEET go away from Tamil Nadu.
31:11All the tall promises to retrieve state rights and protect the interests of Tamil Nadu people
31:15has gone.
31:16Let's keep moving on the questions as well.
31:17I want to come to the next question, which is to do with the performance of the leader
31:20of the opposition, which in this case happens to be Palani Khan.
31:25That AIDMK hasn't fractured and fragmented in the way some doomsday proponents may have
31:31thought, but you know, how do people look at his performance?
31:35Very satisfied is just 8%, that is quite low frankly, given that he has had a largely unhindered
31:43run as leader of the opposition, because all the other players are now very deeply marginalised.
31:49Satisfied to some extent is 27%, the big number there is not satisfied at all, which
31:55is 32%, one third, 33% say, they don't know, can't say.
31:59The big number there is not satisfied at all, satisfied to some extent 27%, very satisfied
32:06is just 8%.
32:08That is the problem, which is also why someone like Vijay has so much allure.
32:14The fact that your leader of the opposition, your general secretary, simply hasn't been
32:20able to rouse the Tamil people.
32:22Rahul, I answered in my opening remarks, 80% plus market share in regional medias, where
32:29regional medias are being threatened not to put anything from our opposition leader.
32:34More than 600 press releases, I'll give you one small example.
32:37No, but you have to find some way of communicating your message, this is hardly a valid argument.
32:42One minute, I'll give you one example.
32:45During AADMK regime, a three-year-old kid which fell inside the borewell dug by his
32:50grandfather, it's a private land, the entire regional media went all gaga for three consecutive
32:54days by putting live.
32:56Now tell me, whatever is happening on the ground, our regional medias are being given
33:00the free hand to telecast it.
33:02I am banned from participating in debates by DMK because they back out if I come for
33:06debate.
33:07The exception is only English channel, thanks to the courage of Mr. Saravanan.
33:11This is what the reality is, regional medias, 80%, they are flooded with sleeper cells of
33:16DMK.
33:17Jo dikhta hai, wo dikhta hai.
33:18If you can't have the media space, what is the point in putting up a perception in
33:23the minds of the people?
33:24That game will start only the election fever sets in.
33:27That's where our leader will start making the right choices at the right platform.
33:31Even media has to realize what they have done so far.
33:33They can't be the chanchas of DMK anymore.
33:37The fact that, you know, for the protestations that we are hearing from the opposition about
33:42the regional media being unfair, A, how true is that?
33:47B, more importantly, the fact that just 8% seem to be very satisfied with the performance
33:53of the leader of the opposition.
33:54His performance seems quite poor, 32% saying not satisfied at all.
34:01You're on mute.
34:02Sorry.
34:03As for the first part of your question, I think it reflects the fact that certainly
34:09the DMK is a powerful entity in the media sphere as such.
34:14We know about, you know, the Maharan brothers, the general, Sun TV, all of it.
34:17It's a powerful group.
34:19But you take that well-known fact to the extent, threats or something.
34:29I am not aware of it.
34:30I know that we stand privileged with the English media in this and with the print media.
34:34We're not part of the television media.
34:36But at the same time, we are acutely aware, we hear, you know, what's happening at the
34:39ground.
34:40And I don't think anyone has been shut out from the system.
34:43That is a bit of a tall claim.
34:45I do think certainly influence plays a role.
34:48I'm sorry.
34:49Kovai Sathiyan's fader goes down.
34:51Let Sarayan Laxman complete.
34:52Yeah.
34:53Sorry.
34:54So this is what I have picked up.
34:55Maybe Mr. Kovai Sathiyan has a different information and is at receiving end of it.
34:59I am not aware of this.
35:00The second is the more important question here, which is his Parni Sami, while he was
35:06an extremely effective person to govern the state, his time as chief minister was phenomenal
35:12for the state.
35:13I cannot deny him that he, however, due to his predecessor's insistence on maintaining
35:20a vice like grip on power and not nurturing leadership below her, led to a failure of
35:27building the kind of intra party and between party alliances to keep him steady, to keep
35:34his party steady and to potentially keep a future AIADMK government steady.
35:39They have been completely crippled, the rug pulled under their feet by their own dear
35:43leader who passed before them.
35:45And it is that's why he has struggled despite being an able administrator and chief minister
35:52to maintain that level of confidence that he could project to the voters, that he can
35:56deliver a second term on the same parameters of success.
36:00They do not have that faith.
36:02Therefore, if you are looking for a second option to the DMK, they are turning to people
36:06like Vijay and others.
36:08That's a big problem.
36:09I think the data captures that very starkly.
36:12The fact that 18% are looking at someone like a Vijay, a new entrant in the political field
36:17rather than going back to the AIADMK, which would be the principal opposition party or
36:23Narendra Modi.
36:24Let's come to the most important issue for the voters of Tamil Nadu.
36:27So when this question was asked that what matters most, it's interesting that women's
36:31safety came up at the top with number one, 15% of the respondents saying women's safety
36:38was their number one issue.
36:41Rising prices came in at number two at 10%, alcohol and drug abuse came in at 10% and
36:48unemployment came in at 8%.
36:50So the big factor there, women's safety, rising prices, alcohol and drug abuse at 10%,
36:58unemployment at 8%.
36:59Corruption doesn't feature amongst the first four issues.
37:02Not that it's not an issue, but what the BJP hits out or the AIADMK tries to hit out isn't
37:07seen as being that high.
37:09What do you make, Narayan Lakshman, of the fact that women's safety has come in as the
37:13number one issue for the voters of Tamil Nadu in this poll that C Voter has done?
37:21Rahul, I think that's a very real concern.
37:23I think we've had several high profile incidents where, you know, there have been assaults
37:29and rapes and it has really struck a chord.
37:32I do think that in terms of local governance, I don't know whether it's the state government
37:37should set the tone and tenor, but a lot of this boils down to very local issues.
37:43As we know from global statistics, you know, rape and assault and threats to women's safety
37:47usually come from a known person in a majority of cases.
37:51Obviously, here there have been many cases where it's been a stranger.
37:54And to that extent, it reflects law and governance, sorry, law and order issues at a very local
37:59level or, you know, it's not like a statewide alarm has been raised.
38:04So I think what you're seeing is the accumulation of many such small incidents.
38:08And certainly, I think if the DMK wants to do better on one parameter, it needs to pull
38:12up its...
38:13You know, the fact that women's security, Sarvanan, comes up so high up in this poll,
38:19it's not, you know, price rise, unemployment, cookie-cutter generic issues will feature
38:23in any poll.
38:24But women's safety is like a really strong message to Stalin and to your government.
38:28Yes.
38:29Yeah.
38:30Yeah, Rahul, I think it's a good thing that people put in women's safety as the top priority
38:36because the DMK government gives so much of importance, especially to the women.
38:43That's not why they put it there.
38:44They put it there because you're not doing a good enough job.
38:46They put it there because you're not doing a good job on women's safety, which is why
38:49it's the number one issue.
38:50That's the way to interpret the data.
38:52No, no, no, no, no, let me, let me, come, come, come, allow me to speak.
38:57See, if you look at the data of the last 10 years, crimes that have taken place during
39:02the ADMK regime and compare that with what is happening in the last three years, there
39:07is no increase.
39:08In fact, there is a decrease.
39:09And in the recent Times of India survey, where almost six cities from the state of Tamil
39:15Nadu feature in the safest cities in India for women.
39:19That is how we maintain the women's issue.
39:22Okay.
39:23Vinod Selvam wants to come in and respond to the issues that matter to the voters of
39:27Tamil Nadu and women's security.
39:29Saravanan interpreting the data to show that they're doing an amazing job, which is why
39:33it's coming up on top, not because they're doing a bad job.
39:35Let Vinod Selvam respond.
39:37Rahul, I, Rahul, I remember Saravanan asking you, who is your English teacher?
39:43I would ask, I would like to ask him the same question, who is this English teacher?
39:47Because you know, it is very basic and it's very understandable that the people are very
39:51concerned that women are not doing safe in the state.
39:52You know, when you come to a show about data and polling, you should ask, where did you
39:55study statistics and economics and polling?
39:58That's far more relevant than where did you study English, but please go on.
40:02So, you know, it is very concerning what is happening to the women of the state.
40:09You know, the number of cases of molestation, harassment have been going up by the day.
40:14And somewhere, if you see all these people are related to anyone who is a part of the
40:17DMK.
40:18So, you know, being in the DMK or using the DMK flag in the car gives them the signal,
40:22gives them the license to do whatever atrocities against women and go scot-free.
40:27Also the issue of alcohol and drug abuse has been going up extremely high.
40:31And also with regard to the survey, I was little concerned when you were talking about
40:35Vijay getting 18 percent.
40:36But after you said that the DMK satisfaction is at 15 percent, I am very much convinced
40:40that the survey has not been done the right manner.
40:43Because 15 percent can be convinced about the DMK's good governance, it's a big joke
40:46in the state.
40:48Because everywhere you go, you find discontent people, completely unhappy with the way this
40:52government, there is no governance literally.
40:54It is just about how they project one family and the next prince in line, you know, to
41:00be made the chief minister very soon, Udayani Stalin.
41:03I remember Saravanan also asking about, has any sports minister ever performed like this
41:07before?
41:08Has any sports minister ever been given so much importance before?
41:11Have any, have all the ministers rallied behind any one minister before like this?
41:15You see all the seniors stand up in line, most of them coming, falling on his feet,
41:19taking blessings.
41:20That's the kind of importance that is being given this one family, it's like a monarchy
41:23what is happening in Tamil Nadu.
41:25So I don't think any of these surveys really matter.
41:28So 2026 is going to be the year of the NDA and the NDA is for sure to form the government
41:34in Tamil Nadu, notwithstanding what DMK or any LKG party like the TVK is going to come
41:39to the frame.
41:40Well, you are being dismissive of the TVK, if their leader comes in at 18 percent double
41:47that of your state president, you shouldn't be dismissive.
41:50That is absolutely correct.
41:51Let's just take the last question, which is to do with the MLA and the performance
41:57of the MLA, which is not about DMK MLAs or AIADMK MLAs, but generally, how satisfied
42:03are you with the MLA, 16 percent saying they're very satisfied, 32 percent saying satisfied
42:10to some extent, 25 percent saying not satisfied at all, 27 percent saying they can't say.
42:18So there on the issue of the MLA, the percentage of people saying they're very satisfied
42:23is 16 percent, 32 percent saying satisfied to some extent.
42:28So that's really where things stand on the issue of how people perceive the performance
42:34of the MLA.
42:35Now I want to look at really the big picture that emerges from the poll.
42:40The poll's big picture is that Vijay has emerged as an important player in Tamil Nadu
42:47politics.
42:48The question then is whether that 18 percent popularity he has, which is his personal popularity
42:53and the question of who should be the next chief minister, whether that translates into
42:5718 percent votes for his party or not.
43:00The two are not the same thing.
43:02You could have individual popularity because you're a senior star, but that doesn't necessarily
43:06translate into popularity for your party.
43:09And I think that is really the critical question.
43:12How do you see and what do you think Narayan Laxman will be most important over the next
43:17few weeks as Tamil Nadu politics heats up to determine whether he stays a fringe player
43:23who provided entertainment from the margins or comes and becomes a crucial player front
43:28and center in the next election in Tamil Nadu?
43:31Well, two things Rahul.
43:33One is how quickly and adroitly is he able to assemble superstars within his own party
43:42and project them as future team members in his cabinet and who are people who have actual
43:47street cred, who can say they have governance experience, because that is the one thing
43:51that he lacks.
43:53He does not have governance experience and as several people have said on this panel,
43:56the people of Tamil Nadu are very astute and tuned to that.
43:59They care about who is sitting on the seat, making the rules for them.
44:02That's the first.
44:03The second is how can he actually win and in terms of mobilizing voters and convincing
44:10them that he's a fantastic candidate politically as well, not just as a film star, because
44:14again, the intelligence of the voter does not make them blindly vote for film stars.
44:19They vote with the understanding that some film stars have used film effectively as a
44:24messaging tool to convey an important political message on how they promise to govern.
44:30It is about the promises that they make.
44:32So Vijay has to manage his team and his messaging extremely carefully and quickly and convince
44:39the people and I still see a long gap between him and MK Stalin, who has both of those things.
44:46He doesn't have a strong film background, but he has powerful people in his cabinet
44:50and he has that all important track record of governance.
44:53And people have faith in that for very good reasons, because we live in difficult times.
44:57We live in times of big negotiations between centre and state in terms of crises that hit
45:03every state.
45:04So you cannot have someone who's dithering or you cannot have someone who doesn't have
45:08experience.
45:09A couple of questions to Yashwant Deshmukh, lithophologist at Sea Voter.
45:12You know, 18% people think in your poll that Vijay should be the next Chief Minister.
45:17That's a very big finding.
45:19But what's your assessment of the ability to translate personal popularity on the question
45:25of Chief Minister to the percentage of people who think they may want to vote for his new party?
45:31Well, Rahul, it all depends on how eventually people look at his, you know, entire situation,
45:39because on his own at this point of time, as the other experts said, I don't really
45:44think he is a winning, he has got the winning equation on his own.
45:49But what I am really interested in watching very carefully, if the three, I mean, second,
45:55third and fourth can come together, and because there you have got actually one name which
46:01has a face and no organisation and other two names which have an organisation of sort,
46:07but not that kind of a popular at this point of time.
46:10But if they can come up to some kind of a coalition, then that is a different scenario
46:15altogether.
46:16And let's face this thing very clearly, Rahul, that as far as Tamil Nadu politics is concerned,
46:21as far as, you know, unless there is a big face out there with an organisation, Tamil
46:28Nadu politics doesn't really deliver in the way.
46:31Once Jairam Jalil Sattarji was gone, AIADMK had all sort of trouble, even though they
46:37had the organisation, they had the infrastructure with them.
46:41Rajinikanth also tried, but, you know, you remember the trackers we were running, he
46:46went up to 14-15% and then eventually it deterred off at 6%, 4% and then he called off the race
46:52that he is not joining the politics.
46:55So a lot depends on what Vijay does with his popularity and how carefully and how smartly
47:01he plays with his capital, you know, and if the three of them can actually come together
47:07and mount a challenge to Stalin, otherwise, you will see in the tracker that he remains
47:13number one, that's fine, no question about that.
47:17But it's not that there is no incumbency building up, there is a significant incumbency
47:21as far as the government and the MLAs are concerned, there is a significant incumbency
47:26which is building up and everybody needs to remember that this is back 10, almost like
47:3210 years of almost 40 out of 40 member of parliaments are also with this group.
47:38So, I mean, it's not that incumbency is not there, how much the opposition can actually,
47:45you know, think of coming together properly and then utilise their individual strength
47:50to come up into an alliance which can challenge the ruling party.
47:53So I think we've been able to capture some of the winds blowing in Tamil Nadu politics.
47:58Yashwant Deshmukh, Kovai Sathyan, A. Saravanan, Vinod Salwam and Narayan Lakshman for joining
48:03me on this special edition of the Political Stock Exchange.
48:06Thank you very much.
48:07Mamata Banerjee was greeted with protests as she addressed a gathering at Oxford University's
48:12Khelag College in London.
48:13The protesters showed up with placards, questioned the Bengal CM on the RG car rape episode and
48:19for political violence in the state.
48:21During the commotion, Mamata Banerjee dramatically pulled out a poster-sized image of herself
48:26from the 1990s, showing her with a severe head injury and bandages.
48:31Here's more.
48:45Mamata Banerjee, heckled by the Left-Wing Students Federation of India,
48:49during an address at Khelag's College in the United Kingdom.
49:08The protesters raised Go-Away Mamata slogans.
49:19Held posters demanding justice for Abhaya rape and murder.
49:25Raising corruption and post-pole violence allegations.
49:31The Bengal CM hit back at the protesters.
49:49Bringing out a poster of an attack against her in the 1990s.
49:57Mamata claimed there was an attempt by the Left to kill her earlier.
50:19The Trinamool Congress called the SFI protest a conspiracy.
50:26While the BJP claims Bengal wants Mamata out.
50:49Mamata Banerjee is going to London to give a speech.
50:53The people there will ask what happened in RG car.
50:55An incident like RG car is happening all over Bengal.
50:57Women are not safe.
50:59The youngest girl is getting married in Bengal.
51:01Thousands of girls are pregnant.
51:03Underage.
51:05Why is this happening?
51:07What is going on in society?
51:09This is not the first time.
51:11This is not the first time.
51:13This is not the first time.
51:15Why is this happening?
51:17What is going on in society?
51:19If anyone asks this question, we will answer.
51:21If anyone asks this question, we will answer.
51:23If anyone asks this question, we will answer.
51:27What was meant to be a visit to attract investment for Bengal has taken a political turn.
51:34Go away.
51:36Go away.
51:38Go away.
51:40Go away.
51:42Go away.
51:44Go away.
51:46Go away.
51:48Go away.
51:50Go away.
51:52Go away.
51:54Go away.
51:56Go away.
51:58Go away.
52:00Go away.