• 4 days ago
#imf #pakistan #ElectricityRelief #electricityprices #electricity #electricitybill
#pmshehbazsharif #khawarghumman #chaudhryghulamhussain #hassanayub

IMF rejects Electricity Relief | Why couldn't the Prime Minister's promise be fulfilled?

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Transcript
00:00Assalam-o-Alaikum dear viewers, welcome to the program.
00:12Today is 24th March, Monday, the first day of the week.
00:16We have with us Mr. Chaudhry Ghulam Sain from Lahore and Mr. Hassan Ayub from Islamabad.
00:20In our program, we had a story break once that Mr. Hassan Ayub was going to meet Tamgha-e-Husna-e-Qarqardagi.
00:26On 23rd March, he was honoured.
00:28So, in our program, we have Mr. Hassan Ayub, T.I.
00:34So, once again, congratulations to you.
00:37Dear viewers, you can see that politics is flourishing in Pakistan.
00:44There was an important issue of national security.
00:48All political parties were invited to the parliament.
00:52They were invited to the parliament and became a part of the National Security Committee.
00:57They took a briefing from our military leadership.
01:01The Pakistani President refused to come.
01:05And the political parties that came, they also began to give their statements.
01:12This is the state of politics.
01:14Our politicians are ready to talk about very important national issues.
01:20They are fighting with each other.
01:23But on the other hand, we saw confidence in the government of Pakistan.
01:31We saw some progress in the stock exchange market.
01:38The market went up to 119,000-120,000 points.
01:44And it is still going up.
01:46Although this has not yet affected the common people,
01:49but obviously, the stock market has its own way.
01:52We were getting some good news from the government.
01:57That very soon, we will reduce the prices of electricity.
02:00Very soon, in Pakistan, the real estate sector, the construction sector,
02:06we are going to talk to IMF.
02:11After that, we will take some relief packages from them.
02:17And we will get some relief.
02:21But the common people did not get relief.
02:24Today is Monday, the first day of the week.
02:26We saw the newspapers in the morning.
02:28So believe me, I got scared.
02:29First of all, let's put the Dawn newspaper in front of you.
02:32In the Dawn newspaper, IMF shoots Dawn, plans to cut power tariffs for now.
02:38But the Prime Minister reiterated his package to reduce electricity tariffs,
02:41set to be announced soon.
02:43Officials say the government needs to do a lot on legal, procedural and regulatory grounds
02:49to ensure relief.
02:51After that, let's put the Dawn newspaper in front of you.
02:55The IMF has clearly refused to reduce the tax share of loans.
03:02The FBI's request was rejected.
03:04It did not agree to reduce the tariffs for March 2025.
03:10After that, we will announce the package to reduce electricity tariffs soon.
03:15This is the news from the Dawn newspaper.
03:19But the news from the Dawn newspaper and the rest of the news that is coming to us,
03:23they are saying that the IMF is not satisfied with this.
03:26Along with this, you are seeing what is happening with regards to solar energy.
03:30Shoaib Nizami is with us.
03:32He is our Special Representative.
03:34He knows that the government had said that there will be a reduction in electricity tariffs.
03:41There will be a reduction in taxes in the real estate sector.
03:45There will be improvements in the economy.
03:47But the news from the IMF is different.
03:49So, Shoaib, tell us, if we add up all the news from today,
03:54what will a common Pakistani try to understand?
04:00Have we bowed to the IMF?
04:03Is the IMF suppressing us?
04:05Will the government resist this pressure?
04:07Because the targets of the FBI are not being fulfilled.
04:12Yes.
04:13Yes, our issue with the IMF is that there is a lot of trust deficit.
04:17And we don't trust them.
04:21And especially where we have to legislate,
04:24they say that if you do it, then it will be fine.
04:27Similarly, we did not get the tariffs of our tax.
04:31We cut our PFGP.
04:34We reduced our expenditure.
04:37We did some right-sizing exams.
04:39We saved some money and adjusted the shortfall of Rs. 605 lakhs to June
04:44from our fixed deficit.
04:45But where it is a matter of increasing revenues,
04:48we did not get the tariffs.
04:51Where it is a matter of tax evasion, we did not get the tariffs.
04:55And that is why the IMF, along with talking to us,
04:58puts a 9-table MEFC in all its assessments.
05:02If it does not match, then there is a problem.
05:05And this problem arises because what we are talking about is
05:09that our subsidies should be limited in the power tariff.
05:13And even now, our capital charges are more than Rs. 2000.
05:17They should be reduced in some way.
05:19The government has made agreements with the IPP.
05:21Three things are running on energy.
05:25One is the agreement with the IPP.
05:27The second is our quarterly adjustment.
05:29And the third is our basic tariff.
05:32We have announced the basic tariff.
05:35The Prime Minister has also said that it will be announced on March 23.
05:38But the amount of subsidy for this is around Rs. 45 lakhs.
05:42Where will it come from?
05:44That is why the government has increased the levy by Rs. 5 to Rs. 10.
05:49Every month, we will get around Rs. 5 billion.
05:52So, we will have to satisfy them along with the ground.
05:58As far as the issue of climate financing is concerned,
06:02we will have to make a law to impose a carbon levy of Rs. 3 to Rs. 5.
06:06This is a matter of later.
06:08I want to ask you a simple question.
06:10For how long will the government announce a reduction in electricity prices?
06:14There was good news on real estate.
06:17Some tariffs will be reduced.
06:19Some taxes will be reduced.
06:21Because a lot of taxes have been imposed there.
06:23Are we getting this good news soon or not?
06:25The situation now is that the FBI has to make an app.
06:29After making the app, the FBI has to develop it.
06:33For this, the FBI was given a month's time.
06:36Which will be completed by the end of March.
06:39If the app comes in April, then the decision will be made.
06:41At this time, the different parties, including the National Assembly,
06:44said that when you are reaching here,
06:46then take it into the budget.
06:47Go there and announce it.
06:48The focus of the Prime Minister was that people should be provided with facilities in the construction package.
06:52Construction should be sold.
06:54Along with that, there were issues for real estate.
06:56Then it was also said that the property worth up to Rs. 50 million should not be sold.
07:00So, these are all the lines where the IMF stands by them.
07:05And it creates a partnership for Pakistan.
07:08These issues are still under discussion.
07:11Road talks are also being held.
07:12Talks are held every hour.
07:13But all the issues, where we are trying to resolve,
07:17we are failing because we have ruined the trust of the IMF again.
07:22Mr. Harsan, you want to ask a question?
07:23The answer to the question has been given in the middle.
07:25You have also asked the second question.
07:27I will ask the third question now.
07:29So that there is some news.
07:31Sir, tell me that for the general public...
07:33Yes?
07:34Yes, talk.
07:36For the general public,
07:38the electricity relief that was given by the Punjab government earlier,
07:44so this time, the four provinces,
07:48if they give some relief to the public on their own terms,
07:53in the summer, on electricity per unit,
07:56can this make a difference to the IMF program?
08:00Or can there be any objections to this?
08:03Look, the problem is that our talks with the IMF,
08:06the talks with the IMF,
08:08but the different people who are talking to them,
08:12they will be on their surplus.
08:15If you fulfill the requirements of your surplus provinces,
08:18then you should give subsidies.
08:20But the problem is that there is no earning in the provinces.
08:22When the provinces do not earn as much as they should,
08:25as much as the potential is,
08:26then from where will they give subsidies?
08:27They adjust the subsidies with their surplus.
08:31Now you have to give subsidies to the surplus provinces.
08:33If you fulfill the targets, then you will be able to give subsidies.
08:36It is very easy to give power tariffs and announce them,
08:38but where will the money come from?
08:39The IMF does not leave us on that.
08:41Our problem is that in the next three years,
08:43we have to return 100 billion dollars to the international banks.
08:47For which we cannot survive without the IMF program.
08:50Okay, you are absolutely right, Mr. Nizami.
08:54Thank you very much for sharing this.
08:57Last time when Punjab did it,
08:59there were objections from Sindh, Wafaaq, and the IMF.
09:04Because this is a national level policy.
09:06The provinces can give relief to their people in the form of subsidies.
09:10But when they give relief in electricity,
09:12then the federal utility comes under it.
09:14Mr. Khan Najeeb is with us.
09:16We will talk to him on all these issues.
09:18Thank you very much, Mr. Khan.
09:20The first question,
09:22because Mr. Chaudhary Ghulam Sain has not yet joined us,
09:25we will ask him to talk to you.
09:27But we will talk to you on these three or four issues.
09:31One is that the government's intention,
09:34every government wants to provide relief to the people in the form of subsidies.
09:40In the real estate business,
09:42there is a lot of engagement in the multilevel industries.
09:45There will be relief in the multilevel industries.
09:48Because people's business will run.
09:50And at the same time, in the case of solar energy,
09:52you know that the government's back and forth is going on.
09:55The Prime Minister is saying that he did not say this.
09:58This government policy has come.
10:00There are different things in it.
10:02Mr. Chaudhary Ghulam Sain, first give a small comment.
10:05Then I will ask Mr. Najeeb a question.
10:07Overall, what do you think of the scenario in relation to the current economy?
10:16No, what Mr. Shoaib Nizami has said,
10:19or at least I have understood,
10:21he is saying that the people have an answer.
10:28Yes, yes.
10:29No?
10:31Yes, yes, continue Mr. Chaudhary.
10:34I did not see any message of relief from there.
10:39Let's take this question and go to Mr. Hakan Najeeb.
10:42Mr. Hakan Najeeb, you have seen all the news in today's newspapers.
10:47The Time of is saying that there are no cuts on tariffs,
10:50no power tariffs, no cuts on the taxes imposed on real estate,
10:55you know that there is a policy on solar energy.
10:58So, the Pakistanis should expect relief in the coming weeks and months.
11:05First of all, congratulations to Mr. Hassan Ayub on receiving an honour from the Government of Pakistan.
11:11Thank you very much, sir.
11:12So, let's start the conversation in this way,
11:16that if we take Pakistan as an energy sector,
11:20if we want to rectify its problems,
11:23then the conversation that we should have with the policy and authority,
11:29and we should also talk to the IMF,
11:31it should be much beyond this question of how do we lower prices,
11:35we should go towards the real question,
11:39and that is how do we build a resilient, competitive, equitable energy ecosystem.
11:44You tell me, why don't we ask this question to our government?
11:49And if we do this, then the prices will automatically decrease,
11:53as you have seen in the telecom sector.
11:56I am doing this conversation because I think until we frame the conversation properly,
12:02how long have we been trying and the prices are increasing continuously.
12:06General Musharraf left a circular debt of Rs. 100 crores.
12:10It kept increasing continuously.
12:12After this, it was Rs. 1100, Rs. 2300, Rs. 2400,
12:16and then the same amount of circular debt was left by the needle companies.
12:20So, this shows that even today, if we keep this question,
12:24in the short term, it is fine, some prices can be lowered,
12:27I will also put that forward, how can it be done.
12:30The agreements with the IPP,
12:32they can give a relief of Rs. 1.5 or Rs. 2.
12:35You can get a relief of Rs. 10 from the Petroleum Development Levy,
12:40you will get Rs. 250 billion annually.
12:44You can get a relief of Rs. 1.25 or Rs. 1.5 on the electricity bill.
12:48So, this is about Rs. 3.
12:50Apart from this, if you are profiling a debt, you can get relief from that.
12:55So, these are a few ways.
12:57Then there is some relief in fuel price adjustment.
13:00What does that mean?
13:01If the price of oil has gone down in the world,
13:04and you have taken the price of higher oil,
13:06then you can get some relief from that.
13:08This is a mix and match approach.
13:10And if the government is doing something,
13:12then it can go towards relief.
13:14This is a short term discussion.
13:16But this is not the real discussion.
13:18What is the real discussion?
13:19Will you be able to privatize the discourse,
13:21so that it becomes a competitive market?
13:23Number one.
13:24Number two.
13:25Now you see, I feel very sad many times,
13:28that we have gone to change a small net metering policy.
13:32And there has been a discomfort in the whole country.
13:35If you have a small net metering policy,
13:39which is not even 0.8% overall,
13:42which the country is going through right now.
13:44Absolutely right.
13:45They are coming into so much trouble by changing it.
13:48Then you should ask the real question,
13:50that what is the problem in our policymaking?
13:54And how do we do the energy ministry right?
13:57Policymaking.
13:58Power policy of 1994.
14:01Power policy of 2002.
14:03Power policy of 2015.
14:05I can say with confidence,
14:07that 17% return was guaranteed in all three.
14:10And in its follow-up,
14:12did we ever go and get a heat rate audit done?
14:15We did not.
14:16So, what is the real way to remove the risks of policy?
14:20Then move ahead.
14:21Have you made such a regulator in the country,
14:24who is the market maker of Pakistan,
14:26that is, making a competitive market,
14:28or you are still stuck in two regulators.
14:31There is one energy regulator in the whole world.
14:34It checks the energy with a molecule of one energy.
14:37And the third thing is,
14:39that if the transmission and distribution capacities are so low,
14:43and you can't even go from south to north,
14:46then you go and see,
14:47that in NTDC,
14:48in our managerial capacity,
14:51we sometimes keep the CEOs' charge for so long,
14:54so what losses have we incurred,
14:56that we couldn't even fix that.
14:58Okay, Mr. Najeeb, this...
14:59Yes, yes, please, please.
15:00Brother Hassan, one last thing.
15:01Yes, yes.
15:02In 1992, when we dismantled Wabda at the behest of the World Bank,
15:06that day and today,
15:08we are saying that we are going to sell discos.
15:11Even today, we are saying the same.
15:13This is the real story of Pakistan's energy sector.
15:16Look, Mr. Hakan Najeeb,
15:18you are 100% right.
15:20A common Pakistani,
15:22who lives in a village,
15:24obviously, a large part of Pakistan's population lives in villages,
15:28they don't understand the issues of your big policy-making level.
15:34Now, people elect their rulers,
15:36send them to power,
15:38and expect them to solve these complex issues
15:41and do policy-making.
15:43Now, there are experienced politicians,
15:46the current government,
15:48there can't be anyone more experienced than this.
15:50Obviously, Pakistan's Muslim League is known.
15:52From the 80s onwards,
15:54they have seen all the problems and issues in various departments.
15:57Now, we are told,
15:59the current Minister of Energy is telling me that
16:02the pools that have nuclear,
16:04Wabda,
16:05which has hydel,
16:06solar,
16:07wind,
16:08wherever they get electricity from,
16:11it costs us 9-10 rupees per unit.
16:14As a common Pakistani,
16:16I ask you,
16:17if you are being paid 9-10 rupees per unit,
16:21why are you taking common people
16:23to power for 50, 60, 70, 80 rupees?
16:26Now, you have told us
16:28that this work should be done on a policy-making level.
16:32But tell me,
16:33who will do it?
16:34What will they do?
16:35What should happen?
16:36This is the question we ask on a daily basis.
16:38That everything is there,
16:40but despite everything being there,
16:42the poor people are suffering.
16:44Look, in the country,
16:46we say that
16:47if we don't change this structure,
16:49you have changed this structure in telecom,
16:51what does this mean?
16:52There are 3-4 companies,
16:54you can buy from anyone,
16:55from PTC,
16:56from Amazon,
16:58from Mobiling,
16:59from Telenor,
17:01from wherever you want to buy,
17:02a competitive market has been created.
17:04Till now,
17:05where we are stuck,
17:0710-11 discos,
17:08near the state,
17:09near the generation state,
17:10we are not able to get out of this,
17:12that till the time we don't create a market,
17:15the people who want the problems to be solved,
17:17the problems will not be solved.
17:19And secondly,
17:20the marginal cost is one thing,
17:21that is the fuel cost.
17:22The real cost is 28 rupees,
17:24what is that for?
17:25The cost of 28 rupees is
17:26the 21 billion rupees of power,
17:29which is called capacity or fixed charge.
17:31That has to be given.
17:32So, the basic cost that is being created,
17:34with apologies,
17:35is 35 rupees of Pakistan,
17:37on the average.
17:38On top of that,
17:39there is a lot of taxation system,
17:41GST,
17:42advanced tax,
17:43commercial tax,
17:44PTV fee,
17:45if you add all of this,
17:46the cost that goes between 50-70 rupees,
17:48this is the actual cost of Pakistan.
17:51What is the way to reduce this?
17:53I have told you some ways,
17:55to reduce the cost generation.
17:58The real thing is that,
17:59in the country,
18:00there is 43-45 thousand megawatts of electricity,
18:02right now.
18:03And you are selling,
18:04in summer,
18:0525-28 thousand,
18:06and in winter,
18:078-10 thousand megawatts.
18:08So, you rethink the tariff,
18:10in such a way,
18:11that the selling,
18:13increases.
18:14Let's say,
18:15if the sale increases,
18:16then the per unit cost will drop.
18:18Now, this is the same thing,
18:19that I am talking about,
18:21changing the tariff structure.
18:23I understand you,
18:24I also understand people.
18:26People ask me everyday,
18:27when I go out,
18:28they ask,
18:29Doctor, how will the cost of electricity be reduced?
18:30There is no easy way,
18:32to reduce it,
18:33except that,
18:34you reform it,
18:35in the next 2-3 years,
18:36and build it,
18:37on a medium term,
18:38so that,
18:39the demand in the country,
18:40increases,
18:41and the cost of electricity,
18:42drops.
18:43Sir, if you allow me,
18:44I would like to ask a question.
18:45Where are we stuck,
18:46on the issue of solar?
18:47The solar policy,
18:48how do you look at it?
18:49Look,
18:50it is very easy to say,
18:51that,
18:522-2.5 years ago,
18:53you were getting solar,
18:54for 30 lakhs,
18:55and today,
18:56you are getting it for 15 lakhs.
18:57It is very easy to say.
18:58But,
18:59if you look at it,
19:00from today,
19:01you are getting solar,
19:02for 30 lakhs,
19:03I will explain it,
19:04in very simple words.
19:05If you,
19:06were getting it for 30 lakhs,
19:07then,
19:08in 4-4.5 years,
19:09you were recovering,
19:10your cost,
19:11by doing your return on investment.
19:13Today,
19:14you are getting it for 15 lakhs,
19:15you are recovering it,
19:16in 1.5-2 years.
19:17Efficiency,
19:18has become bifocal,
19:19energy is generated from above,
19:20and from below,
19:21it has increased a lot.
19:22So,
19:23the government,
19:24should have tweaked it,
19:25completely.
19:26If the cost would have been,
19:2727 rupees,
19:28and your purchase,
19:29would have been,
19:3015 lakhs,
19:31then,
19:32you would have taken,
19:33your return,
19:34in 1.5-2 years.
19:35And,
19:36when the government,
19:37buys solar,
19:38from a new plant,
19:39then it costs,
19:4010 rupees.
19:41I don't,
19:42understand,
19:43what the controversy is.
19:44You can say,
19:45that it should not come,
19:46from 27 to 10,
19:47it should be 15.
19:48Hassan should ask the question.
19:49Hassan.
19:50Sir,
19:51please tell us,
19:52that the real estate market,
19:53experts,
19:54according to them,
19:55if the government,
19:56removes the existing,
19:57tax on payments,
19:58or,
19:59removes the additional tax,
20:00then,
20:01according to them,
20:02the amount of tax,
20:03they are collecting,
20:04from the real estate,
20:05out of that,
20:0610 times,
20:07or,
20:0820 times,
20:09they are saying,
20:10that tax collection,
20:11can be done,
20:12but,
20:13this has to be realized,
20:14that the government,
20:15has to explain this,
20:16to the IMF.
20:17Okay,
20:18I mean,
20:19I didn't insist on one person,
20:20but,
20:21I spoke to multiple people,
20:22and,
20:23I spoke in different cities,
20:24and,
20:25they are all,
20:26all like-minded,
20:27and,
20:28they are saying this.
20:29So,
20:30if,
20:31according to the tax,
20:32you see,
20:3319-20,
20:34a businessman,
20:35from one city,
20:36can be different,
20:37from another,
20:38but,
20:39this much,
20:40they are confident,
20:41if,
20:42not 10 times,
20:43then,
20:44the existing target,
20:45if doubled,
20:46then,
20:47definitely,
20:48people will pay,
20:49to the government.
20:50So,
20:51will it be difficult,
20:52to convince the IMF,
20:53for the government,
20:54or,
20:55to get the IMF?
20:56Hassan,
20:57in very simple words,
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