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00:00So we can head on out and look at the field for the Louisiana Derby.
00:03These are all horses that are based locally in Louisiana.
00:07They've been sort of running there.
00:08That's where their trainers and their owners have their horses based.
00:12And then we'll see the same sort of grouping of horses out in Kentucky for Turfway Park.
00:18Next week, we'll see the horses down in Florida for Gulfstream,
00:21and we'll also see Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.
00:24So all over, you'll have these groupings of horses,
00:27and the top two or three from each of those groups will go on and all compete in the Kentucky Derby.
00:32So you'll get sort of the best of each section across the country,
00:36and actually now even more than the country where we've gotten international,
00:39and we get horses coming from all over the place.
00:42Alexa, let's see who's going to get themselves qualified this week.
00:45And we start out going horse by horse in the Louisiana Derby with an undefeated runner,
00:50John Hancock.
00:51He actually won the Sam F. Davis, which is a pretty big race over at Tampa Bay Downs.
00:56And the horse that he beat in that race is named Owen Almighty.
01:00Owen Almighty just came back and won the Tampa Bay Derby.
01:03So John Hancock beat a nice horse who's actually made his form overall look even better
01:09now that Owen Almighty came back and won.
01:11Yeah, I mean, this is the horse to beat in here.
01:14I will expect him to be really forwardly placed in the race.
01:16The only bummer is drawing the one position,
01:20because this horse is going to want to go straight to the lead,
01:23and that's not really where you want to be right on the rail.
01:26But that being said, I mean, like you said, undefeated.
01:29Who he's beat is coming back to win.
01:31So a serious contender.
01:33When you're talking about the best trainers and the best jockeys,
01:37Brad Cox is like top three to the top five at the most on any list right now.
01:43He's one of the absolute best.
01:44Flavian Pratt is probably top two on most people's lists right next to Irad Ortiz Jr.
01:49So you have one of the best trainers and one of the best jockeys teaming up with John Hancock.
01:55Chunk of Gold came on running late in the Risen Star.
01:58He did finish second.
01:59He was well defeated that day,
02:01but he seems like a horse who's at least moving in the right direction, Alexa.
02:05Yeah, I mean, he was 43 to 1 that day,
02:08so definitely outran his odds.
02:10Broke slowly, encountered some traffic, but still managed to close strongly.
02:14So I do think a cleaner trip could make him a serious contender,
02:16and he should have a fast pace to run into.
02:19Number three, Tiztastic was fifth in the Rebel most recently.
02:24He had some trouble a couple starts back in the southwest.
02:27That was the race where I could make an excuse for him.
02:29Last time out, I think he was a little bit disappointing.
02:31I was expecting more from him.
02:33What do you think about Tiztastic in here?
02:35Yeah, he's a really consistent performer.
02:37You know, he's placed in three of the four derby preps,
02:39including a third in the Risen Star after a wide trip,
02:42but his only wins have been on the turf.
02:45So, I mean, experience and class are upside,
02:48but I think he would definitely need to improve based on what we've seen this weekend.
02:52The number four, Yinzer, is a horse who's really fast early on.
02:56He was able to win his last start
02:58because not very many other horses were pushing him on the front end.
03:02I'm just worried in this race
03:03where he's going to have to deal with other early speed, Alexa.
03:07Yeah, I mean, that's a negative, but also potential positive
03:10if John Hancock were to get kind of stuck on the rail.
03:13Like, he could be one to set the pace in here,
03:15but I think he would need some serious race luck
03:18and others' misfortune to win this one.
03:22Caldera goes out for D. Wayne Lucas, the Hall of Famer.
03:25We saw him jump into the Kentucky Derby scene last week
03:28with a win in the Virginia Derby.
03:30He also has a horse running at Turfway Park,
03:33so he could have a couple horses
03:34that make their way into the starting gate.
03:36Caldera was a horse who was impressive,
03:40but also disappointing at the same time in the Sutherland Derby
03:43because he continued to move forward,
03:45but gosh, he looked like he was going to win that race pretty easily
03:49at the top of the lane.
03:50If you bet him, you were probably feeling really confident
03:52that he was going to blow right by,
03:54and he kind of hung a little bit,
03:56and the horse on the inside getaway car battled back.
03:58So I'm not that high on getaway car.
04:01That's where I'm kind of hemming and hawing on him, right, Alexa?
04:03Right, because getaway car came back
04:05and disappointed in the Virginia Derby last weekend as the favorite.
04:08So you're kind of like,
04:09eh, that's not a super good mark for Caldera,
04:12but he is versatile.
04:13He has versatility in running styles.
04:16He's been on the lead.
04:16He's been able to close.
04:17So from that point, there is upside.
04:20The extra furlong, they're adding some distance,
04:22I think could suit him well.
04:25So interesting play.
04:27And what makes this particular race really challenging
04:29and really fun to look at as a better,
04:32none of the real like top three or top five horses
04:36in this division right now or in this race.
04:38So it's more spread out.
04:39It's kind of wide open.
04:40There's nobody that's going to be an overwhelming
04:42short price favorite in here.
04:44You don't have one of the Bob Baffert horses
04:45who's kind of always going to take a lot of money.
04:48Bilt, though, is one of the more proven horses, Alexa.
04:51He ran second in the LeCompte and then third in the Risen Star,
04:55which are the prep races before the Louisiana Derby.
04:58So he is one of the better of this group.
05:02I just worry a little bit with him.
05:03How far does he really want to go?
05:05Like, is this distance a little bit farther than his best?
05:08But he's certainly capable from a talent standpoint
05:10of competing with these.
05:12I agree.
05:13I have him underneath in my selections.
05:15He didn't get the lead early in that last race,
05:18which he wanted.
05:19So they are adding blinkers this race,
05:21which might help him push through and get the spot he wants.
05:24But it is definitely a distance question
05:26if he can sustain his run.
05:27The horse that I'm really interested in here
05:30is the number seven, Vossimo.
05:32He ran such a weird race in the Risen Star last time out
05:36because he was sitting third down on the inside.
05:38He wasn't too far behind the horses
05:40that were on the front end.
05:41And then he started to back up.
05:44Just looked like he was done.
05:45After backing up, he moves to the outside
05:49and he re-rallies and he comes on again.
05:52So, Alekta, I love when a horse like that
05:55gets an equipment change.
05:56Because to me, that shows me this horse has some ability,
05:59but maybe mentally he's not quite there yet, right?
06:02He's got to figure it all out and put it together.
06:04That's what the blinkers could really help
06:06with a horse like Vossimo.
06:07So he might be interesting as a horse
06:10who's still green, still learning.
06:13But if he can put it all together,
06:14I think there's some talent there.
06:16Yeah, I didn't use him, but I mean,
06:17you have a really convincing argument there.
06:19Definitely has talent, like you said,
06:21adding blinkers, adding some distance.
06:25So it's liable to make an improvement for sure.
06:28The one thing I'd be worried about
06:29is that when Irat Ortiz Jr. rides a horse,
06:32they almost always get bet.
06:34So he might get overbet a little bit
06:36just off the connections.
06:37But if he is like eight, 10 to one,
06:39it's probably pretty fair in here.
06:41Furio feels like one who's going to be
06:43forwardly placed, right?
06:44We're going to try to get to the lead.
06:45That's where he's been at his best.
06:47Yeah, I think so.
06:48I mean, this horse is drastically improving every start.
06:50It's going to have to do it this weekend
06:52without the Lasix though.
06:54Would need another big improvement.
06:56So you're going to get long odds on him.
06:57And I actually could see using him underneath
07:00as a price play since we just definitely,
07:02I don't think I've seen a ceiling yet.
07:04The outside two, I think both kind of interesting.
07:06You like the nine a little bit here, right?
07:08Coming off that big win.
07:09Yeah, the nine.
07:10He likes to come from off the pace and close,
07:12which is how he won his last race
07:14at fairgrounds last month.
07:15Beat Furio that day that we just talked about by five lengths.
07:19There's a stat you can't ignore with trainer Brad Cox.
07:22When his horses are running for the second time
07:24off of a layoff, like instant replay is,
07:27wins 30% of the time.
07:28And that's with a sample size of 150 horses.
07:31So he just really is good at getting his horses
07:34in the winner's circle second off the layoff.