What To Look For In The War Between Russia And Ukraine As Ceasefire Talks Continue

yesterday

On "Forbes Newsroom," Cliff Kupchan, Chair of the Eurasia Group, spoke about what to look for in Ukraine's war with Russia.

Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:

https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript

Stay Connected
Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes
Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes
More From Forbes: http://forbes.com

Transcript

00:00I'm going to go back to something you said about the investment thesis in Ukraine. Obviously,

00:05we are speaking to the Forbes audience here, a lot of investors. If you were a business

00:11owner or an investor, would you be looking at investment opportunities in Ukraine in

00:17the near or far term, or would you adjust your viewpoint?

00:22Unfortunately, I'm very skeptical of the Ukrainian investment outlook,

00:30at least for the medium term, in years. If I was going to do anything,

00:35I would look for some kind of political risk insurance or war insurance, which really hasn't

00:39been part of the conversation yet in Ukrainian reconstruction. Ukrainian bonds, I mean,

00:45that's a very complicated play that, you know, very much smaller section of the investment

00:50community is involved in, and it's a much more technical play. I'd even be skeptical of that,

00:54though. The downside risk to any play right now is that Russia starts shooting again,

00:58or that we're not sure when Russia is going to start shooting again. So I would be leery,

01:03you know, I always think, what would I do if it were my money when I talk to investors? And if

01:08it were my money, unfortunately, I wouldn't go to Ukraine in the foreseeable future.

01:16Among the other issues that have come up this week as we've talked to experts and

01:20heard statements across various governments around the world is the issue of Ukrainian

01:25children who have been stolen by Russian forces. I know that's a sticking point for the Zelensky

01:31government. What are the chances that those children get returned to those families? What

01:36would it take? Gosh, if anything could do it, I think it would be a peace agreement.

01:45That's a really embarrassing issue for Putin. It's a horrible issue. You know, it's been carried

01:52out by somebody quite close to him. And I think it stands for, on both sides, but for the Russians

02:01included, the russification of Ukraine. And that, I think, makes the chances of it getting resolved

02:11in the first phase of any discussion, I think, pretty low. But the Trump administration,

02:18as you know, has decided not to pursue kind of a war crimes angle, or at least that's what we

02:24get so far, on the Russians. And I think that makes it at least marginally easier to do.

02:32Again, not that I condone their policies, agree or disagree, but I think objectively,

02:41any leader that knows he's going to go to the Hague is disincented to make a deal of any kind.

02:48Trump's taken that off the table. I'm not sure why. I'm not sure that's why he took it off the

02:51table. But he's kind of cleaned up Russia's, well, he's potentially cleaned up Russia's exposure.

02:57That makes the deal on the kids, I think, somewhat easier.

03:01Interesting. So if we were to zoom out and use a baseball analogy, innings-wise,

03:07we're three years into this conflict. But where are we in terms of

03:12ending the game? Are we still in the first or second inning, in your view?

03:22You know, we're in the middle of the end of the third inning, maybe, middle end of the third

03:26inning. And we're playing in my home field. You know, the visitors are winning at least like

03:36six to three. I think Putin's gained the advantage on the battlefield. He's got a lot

03:44more motivation, at least the Americans do. The Europeans are a bigger problem. We'll see

03:47if they can get together and make that have an impact on the war. But it's the third inning of

03:58a long game. Could go to extra innings. And right now, I think that the Russians have it on their

04:05end. Cliff, before I let you go, any other thoughts on where we are with this conflict

04:11and what the Forbes audience needs to know about the developments of this week and what could be

04:15coming in the coming weeks? The final point I'd make is, and I get this question a lot right now,

04:22is when are Russian sanctions coming off and when will the Russian market,

04:26when and if the Russian market will open up to the investment community?

04:30And there, it's going to be more nuanced in the sense that U.S. sanctions are what will be

04:39primarily in play, because this is about not EU sanctions. This is about Trump and Putin.

04:47And what I would caution is that we may see some sanctions relief, at least on individuals,

04:53lifting of sanctions. And what I think we're more likely to see, though, is non-enforcement

04:58of sanctions, the model being the Biden administration and Iranian oil. And that

05:03could look quite appealing if it's out there, the energy sector, whatever sector, aluminum is not

05:10going to, sanctions aren't going to be enforced. But I would caution that non-enforcement is

05:16different than lifting. Lifting is reversible, but non-enforcement is subject to revision

05:23revision on ceasefire violations of any Russian action. And given that I think that the ceasefire,

05:31if we get one, which I think we probably will, is going to be unstable, I would distinguish

05:38carefully, I would warn the investment community to distinguish carefully between relief and

05:43non-enforcement and be very aware of the vulnerabilities of non-enforcement.

05:47So that would be my final point.

What To Look For In The War Between Russia And Ukraine As Ceasefire Talks Continue

Category

Transcript

Recommended