Professors Lori Williams and Ian Lee discuss what's next for Prime Minister Mark Carney as the Liberals prepare for a federal election amid a trade war.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Let's go back to our two experts for some reaction.
00:03Laurie Williams, anything stick out in terms of the names you've heard in those senior
00:08positions?
00:10The demotion of Guilbault is, I think, important.
00:13We're hearing also, I think, or know that Cody Blas there, he's the Liberal Atlantic
00:19Caucus will be interested to see what happens there.
00:22For the most part, what we're seeing here is keeping people in portfolios where they
00:27perform very well.
00:28There are important sort of stabilizing forces that are going to come into play here.
00:37But I think Anita Anand in industry is significant.
00:40She did indicate that she wasn't going to be running again to bring her back in.
00:44Of course, she's very, very good on some of the files that would be within that ministry.
00:48Laurie, what does this really mean, given the strong likelihood of a federal election
00:54coming soon?
00:56Well, again, I think it signals bench strength, that they've got a lot of people that are
01:03quite competent.
01:04They perform well in a number of roles.
01:05On the other hand, it also indicates that priorities are shifting somewhat.
01:10Again, I think it's quite significant that we're seeing the Atlantic Caucus chair, again,
01:16I don't know what portfolio he's going to be in, is going to be in cabinet when he was
01:21one of the opponents to the carbon tax and negotiated the carve out for Atlantic Canadians.
01:26Again, not surprising given what we've heard Mark Carney say about his position on the
01:31consumer carbon tax.
01:33And then a new direction with respect to environment, which I think is important as well.
01:43He wants to set his own vision with respect to that.
01:47So it's, and I think he was saying this earlier, it's quite symbolic, but it's also signaling
01:52that they've got a lot of very competent people to do important things within Canada.
01:58I think perhaps the most important thing is which leader is seen as most effective at
02:03dealing with the challenges that Canada is facing.
02:06But to have a good team in place, particularly folks like Jolie and Leblanc and Wilkinson
02:12and so forth, I think all of that's going to be a stabilizing force to some degree.
02:18Okay.
02:19Ian, what is your take on Francois-Philippe Champagne as the finance minister?
02:26I thought it was a good choice.
02:27I've again followed his career for quite some time.
02:30He comes out of trade.
02:32He was at ABB, the huge Swedish multinational that has operations around the world, a very
02:39successful company in power and energy.
02:43And so he's worked before he entered politics.
02:45He had a very extensive career in international trade, international business.
02:51And so again, I think that the prime minister, Prime Minister Carney now is sending a signal
02:57that trade is going to be, this is no surprise, is going to be at the very top of his agenda.
03:04And I just want to bring up something that Laurie brought up before we went to the swearing-in
03:07ceremony.
03:08It's a very important point.
03:11I think this is going to change everything for the Conservatives because they're going
03:14to have to, I think Mr. Polyev is going to have to ironically copy what Justin Trudeau
03:18did way back in 2015, where he was often seen as not having a lot of depth and weight compared
03:26to the then Prime Minister Harper.
03:28So he created this team around him.
03:30He kept saying, this is my team, and he went and recruited some very strong people from
03:34across Canada.
03:35I think this really puts the onus now on Polyev.
03:38I don't know who they've recruited.
03:40It's been kept very close hand.
03:42They have not revealed that, at least none of the leaks I've heard around Ottawa have
03:45revealed that.
03:46But I think they're going to have to go on and really make sure that they recruit some
03:49real stars.
03:50And I don't just mean in Toronto, they could be stars in the local community of Calgary
03:55or Vancouver or Eastern Canada, people that have records in industry or in politics as
04:01municipal mayors.
04:03He's going to have to do the, this is my team, my Polyev team, running against his team.
04:09Because it's widely considered that he doesn't have the same CV, Mr. Polyev does not have
04:14the same CV as Mr. Carney, because he ran two central banks and he has a PhD in economics
04:19from Oxford and so forth.
04:20So I think this is really going to put pressure on him to really step up their recruitment
04:24in a very short period of time to get some stellar candidates around Polyev that he can
04:30put forward as his team to compete against the Carney team.
04:34Okay, Ian, I'll give the last question to you.
04:37What do you think the Canadian business community wants to hear in an election campaign?
04:42And do you think to some degree the Canadian public is more sympathetic to more business
04:48friendly policies in a new federal government?
04:51I'll deal with the first part first.
04:53I mean, the business community has been very clear, Chamber of Commerce, the Business Council
04:57and Chambers of Commerce across Canada, they do not like trade wars at all, at all.
05:02It creates massive uncertainty.
05:05It's terrible for business.
05:07So they want the rhetoric to be dialed down.
05:09They don't want the rhetoric ratcheted up, you know, the name calling and the insults
05:13and so forth.
05:14That's got to go.
05:15And I think he's got two people there on the trade file and the Minister of Finance who
05:18are certainly not going to be flamethrowers or bomb throwers.
05:22So that's what the business community wants.
05:24And of course, they want the trade wars ended.
05:26They want to see, I'm sure, I'm convinced they want a new Kuzma.
05:29In fact, that's exactly what Goldie Hider is saying at the chamber.
05:33So that's what they want there.
05:34I think public opinion right now is behind the business community.
05:38Normally we could say it's often ahead.
05:40And I'm sure Laurie may have something to say about that as a political scientist.
05:45But in this instance, I am of the view that public opinion has become so inflamed by Donald
05:49Trump and they're so angry at Donald Trump that our rationality has gone out the window.
05:53We're willing to get into this a catastrophic trade war, a $2.5 trillion economy, taking
05:58on the largest economy on planet Earth, almost $30 trillion, in which we will inevitably
06:03be squashed like a bug.
06:05Pierre Trudeau properly, accurately said, you know, we're the mouse, they're the five
06:10ton elephant.
06:11So I think that public opinion is going to have to come around.
06:14The leaders of the two parties are going to have to bring public opinion around and say,
06:19look, a trade war is not in our self-interest as Canadians.
06:24We've got to become much more Kissingerian, if you will, much more strategic and develop
06:29a much more solid non-confrontational setting with the largest economy in the world, even
06:35if it does mean dealing with the person that so many people dislike in Canada now, which
06:40is President Trump.
06:41Thank you so much to both of you for your insight.
06:44Ian Lee is associate professor at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University
06:48in Ottawa.
06:49In Calgary, we were joined by Laurie Williams, associate professor in the Department of Economics,
06:54Justice and Policy Studies.