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00:00OK, you don't think tariffs are going to exacerbate that because of the pain they cause to, for
00:03example, small businesses, or could it affect the unemployment rate, do you think?
00:09Well, again, the unemployment rate will probably go up.
00:12The U.S. is probably in a recession.
00:15Those two things are true.
00:16I agree with them.
00:17There's a lot of other evidence that would support that, but my point is it has nothing
00:21to do with tariffs.
00:22See, look, stocks go up and down, and the financial media and Wall Street, they need
00:26a story.
00:27Everyone's like, why are stocks going down?
00:28So they need a story.
00:30Tariffs are real.
00:31They're coming.
00:32But first of all, most of them are not in place.
00:34Secondly, even if they were in place, it would take months or maybe a year or longer to really
00:40affect the macroeconomy.
00:42And three, my point is they won't cause inflation, they won't hit consumers, they'll hit producers,
00:48which will result in greater investment in the U.S., higher-paying jobs, and it's good
00:52for the consumer.
00:53So the long-term aspects of this are very positive.
00:55But we might not see that until 2026.
00:59This year, we probably are in a recession.
01:01We do have to get through it, but it has nothing to do with tariffs.
01:05This has been coming for a year.
01:06I mean, you can see the signs, negative swap spreads, inverted yield curves, then un-inverting,
01:11which means the recession's here.
01:13All those signs have been developing for over a year.
01:16So the recession comes as no surprise, but tariffs are just not part of the story.