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00:00Good morning.
00:13This is the news of March 8th.
00:16Let me introduce our guest for today.
00:19Today's guest is Masahiko Hosokawa, a professor at Meisei University specializing in international economics.
00:27Nice to meet you.
00:29Mr. Takashi Imamura, president of the Marveni Economic Research Institute.
00:34Nice to meet you.
00:36Mr. Joseph Kraft, an economic analyst.
00:40Nice to meet you.
00:42Let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:46Here they are.
00:48President Trump will shake the world with his speech this week.
00:52We've been talking about how he will shake the world with his speech,
00:56but we have a lot of experts here today,
00:59so I'd like to talk about what will happen in the end.
01:05What's the catchphrase for this week?
01:09I wrote it as an example of the market,
01:12but the reason why the Japanese and American companies are not cooperating is because of the Trump administration.
01:20Is there a possibility that this will stop Trump's momentum, or is he not concerned at all?
01:26I'd like to deepen our discussion on this today.
01:30Yes.
01:31And on the other side of the scale,
01:34here are the employment statistics for February in the United States, so let's take a look.
01:39The number of unemployed people in the non-agricultural sector, which is a sensitive indicator of the economic situation,
01:43increased by 151,000 compared to the previous month.
01:46The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 points at 4.1%.
01:51American economic concerns have intensified,
01:54but it is not in a situation where employment conditions are collapsing.
01:58The average hourly wage is 4.0% higher than a year ago.
02:02And New York Dow, which began receiving employment statistics,
02:06said that the results of the employment statistics were below market expectations,
02:10leading to a temporary drop of more than $400.
02:14However, after the stock market had dropped significantly,
02:17the main stock market took a hit before the end of the week.
02:21The end price was $42,801, which is $222.
02:26Mr. Kraft, what do you think of the results of the employment statistics and the market?
02:30Yes.
02:31It started with a slight drop in market expectations,
02:36but the exchange rate of Fed, the central bank,
02:41led to a stable employment situation,
02:44which led to a sense of security in the market,
02:47which changed in the second half of the year.
02:50Looking at the employment statistics alone,
02:53I think it was hard to say that it was a reduction in the US economy.
02:57Mr. Imamura, what do you think?
02:59Employment is originally a subjective indicator of the economy,
03:02but there was a time when Elon Musk was in power,
03:07so there was a possibility that there would be bad numbers.
03:11Compared to that, the number was lower than most people expected,
03:16but it didn't collapse.
03:18And after that, there was talk that President Powell was doing well,
03:22so this number.
03:24I think this is just the beginning.
03:26There is a possibility that the numbers of restaurants in Washington
03:29have not yet been reflected.
03:31It hasn't been reflected here yet.
03:33It's just the beginning,
03:35but after the commercial,
03:37we'll take a closer look at the impact of Trump's tariffs.
03:49This week, the Trump administration in the United States
03:53launched the tariffs they had announced.
03:57From the 4th, 25% of imports from Mexico and Canada were taxed.
04:03In addition, 10% of taxes were newly taxed in China,
04:07and additional taxes were raised to 20%.
04:12Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau.
04:27At the same time, they're talking about reimbursement.
04:47If the U.S. wants something else,
04:50whether it's a direct tariff war, a trade war,
04:54or whatever war,
04:56China will go all the way.
05:00China announced that it would increase additional taxes
05:05by 15% on American wheat and chicken,
05:08and 10% on soybeans and pork.
05:11This will take effect on the 10th.
05:15In addition, the U.S. tax increase is a violation of the rules,
05:20and the WTO, the World Trade Organization,
05:23has suspended it for a month.
05:27In this situation,
05:29the tariffs on Mexico and Canada are 2.3 points.
05:34The Trump administration announced on the 5th
05:37that it would apply the 25% tariffs
05:40they had just launched on the 4th
05:43to automobiles for a month.
05:47The U.S. General Motors,
05:50which is known as the U3,
05:53has approved this reimbursement measure.
05:59On the 6th,
06:01they expanded the tariff on the 25% tariff
06:05to other than automobiles.
06:08The tariff applies to USMCA,
06:11the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
06:15Half of the imports from Mexico
06:18to the U.S. and Canada will be approved.
06:26However, in his speech,
06:28President Trump expressed a strong desire
06:31for a comprehensive tax policy.
06:49He reiterated his desire for a comprehensive tax policy
06:53from April 2nd.
06:56Which country will be the target?
07:02Also, the most concerning issue for Japan
07:05is the tariff on automobiles.
07:08The European Commission has offered it,
07:11but the Japanese automaker
07:14has a production base in Mexico and Canada,
07:17so the tariff on their automobiles
07:20is not to be overlooked.
07:26It is also possible that Japanese automobiles
07:29will be targeted.
07:34On the 9th,
07:36the U.S. Secretary of the Interior
07:39will visit the U.S.
07:42to discuss the tariff on automobiles.
07:45Will Japan be able to avoid the tariff?
07:51Trump's tariff on automobiles
07:54is not to be overlooked.
07:57The stock market is also in a slump.
08:01What will be the impact on the economy
08:04and the market in the future?
08:08Let's take a closer look at Trump's tariff on automobiles.
08:11Let's start with the first topic.
08:14What will happen to Trump's tariff on automobiles?
08:17Let's take a look at Trump's tariff on automobiles.
08:20Trump's tariff on automobiles
08:23is largely divided into three categories,
08:26country, region, and item.
08:29In the country and region,
08:3225% of all imports from Canada and Mexico
08:35will be tariffed on on the 4th.
08:3820% of all imports from China
08:41will be tariffed on on the 4th.
08:4425% of imports from the EU
08:47will also be tariffed on on the 4th.
08:50However, Trump's tariff on automobiles
08:53is already at 2.3 points.
08:56On the 4th,
08:59Trump talked to the top automaker in the U.S.
09:03On the 6th,
09:06Trump talked to the top automaker in the U.S.
09:14Trump talked to the top automaker in the U.S.
09:22Let's take a look at each item.
09:2525% of all products made of steel and aluminum
09:28will be tariffed on on the 12th.
09:3225% of vehicles will also be tariffed.
09:36No product made of farming or weapon will be owned.
09:4910% to 20% of all goods of all countries will be tarffed.
09:52Other countries including China
09:55will also be tarffed.
09:58Mr. Hosokawa, where would you like to focus on?
10:00Well, basically, the things that have been abolished,
10:06there are a lot of people who are in opposition.
10:09Why is it like this?
10:11I think we should focus on the structural problems.
10:17There are a lot of players in the government,
10:21and a lot of people have different opinions.
10:24As a result, we are in a state of disagreement.
10:27It is as if we are in a state of confusion.
10:30The same is true for Mexico and Canada,
10:33where the U.S.M.C.A. has a 2.3 point policy.
10:36It's not really a 2.3 point policy,
10:39it's more about the logic within the system.
10:42The result of the division of roles is just that.
10:45I don't think the policy has changed.
10:47Mr. Hosokawa, could you show us one of the documents you provided?
10:51This is the structure, right?
10:53Yes.
10:55First of all, the most important thing is
10:58the bill for the Trump administration.
11:01On the far left is Navarro.
11:04He is a senior advisor.
11:07He is a scholar.
11:09He is in charge of the bill.
11:12It will be executed.
11:14It will be executed in practice.
11:16It is being done in coordination with the industrialists in Mexico.
11:20It will be done by Secretary-General Ratonic.
11:24He will play the role of the advisor.
11:27He will play the role of Grier, the U.S.T.R. representative.
11:30In the first Trump administration,
11:33Navarro was in charge of the bill,
11:36and Lighthizer, the U.S.T.R. representative,
11:39was in charge of the bill.
11:41Navarro was in charge of the bill.
11:44On the far right,
11:47it says New Business Law.
11:50The Secretary-General of the United States,
11:53he is in charge of the stock market.
11:56President Trump himself has to win
11:59the midterm elections,
12:02so he is in charge of the stock market.
12:05He is in charge of the stock market.
12:08If Navarro does something too extreme,
12:11it will have a negative effect,
12:14and he will give his opinion.
12:17First, Navarro, the U.S.T.R. representative,
12:20will launch a bomb.
12:23Then, at the execution stage,
12:26he will negotiate with the industrialists,
12:29or negotiate with the countries.
12:32Then, Secretary-General Ratonic will come out.
12:35From the outside,
12:38it looks like it's shaking,
12:41but I think we have to see that
12:44it's all mixed up.
12:47Navarro's top priority is,
12:50according to his theory,
12:53to solve the trade deficit.
12:56That's his theory.
12:59Then, he will abolish manufacturing.
13:02By abolishing manufacturing,
13:05he will revive manufacturing in the U.S.
13:08In the same way,
13:11Vice President Vance
13:14is also in the U.S.
13:17The tools for negotiation
13:20are the U.S.T.R. and the U.S. Treasury.
13:23They threaten to use tariffs to negotiate.
13:26If they get what they can get,
13:29they can go back to the way they were.
13:32U.S.T.R. and Treasury are saying
13:35that they will not impose tariffs.
13:38That's what I think.
13:41Mr. Kraft, what are you paying attention to?
13:44One thing I can read
13:47from the press conference
13:50is that Trump's obsession with tariffs
13:53is very strong.
13:56In Japan, there is a little bit of
13:59Trump criticism,
14:02but if you go there,
14:05you can see that Trump's obsession with tariffs
14:08is very strong.
14:11He doesn't care about the stock price.
14:14He doesn't care.
14:17He is confident
14:20that he has a mandate
14:23to impose tariffs.
14:26According to what Mr. Hosokawa said,
14:29the structure is exactly the same.
14:32Originally, the president
14:35came up with a strategy
14:38and based on that strategy,
14:41each of the tariffs should move.
14:44But the current situation is that
14:47each of the tariffs say different things to Trump
14:50and announce what Trump likes
14:53on that day.
14:56It's a situation that's hard to predict.
14:59Mr. Imamura, what do you think?
15:02Yes.
15:05In this election,
15:08he won with the support of the working class.
15:11There were a lot of people
15:14who were in the manufacturing industry.
15:17Compared to the first term,
15:20Mr. Navarro's ability to speak,
15:23his influence, and Trump himself
15:26are very different.
15:29But there aren't many ways to do that.
15:32He seems to be able to use tariffs.
15:35That's why there are so many people.
15:38If you look closely,
15:41you can use it as a bargaining tool.
15:44It's like a tariff debate.
15:47However, the gap is very large.
15:50If you say that this is a destructive blow
15:53to the United States,
15:56you can't prepare for it.
15:59I think there are a lot of things
16:02that won't be ready by April 2nd.
16:05You mean that the U.S. itself
16:08is not ready for it?
16:11Yes.
16:14Do you have a picture of the office?
16:17I thought it was interesting.
16:20When Trump announces his election,
16:23these two people are always lined up.
16:26This is very symbolic.
16:29Mr. Navarro issues the executive order,
16:32and Mr. Ratnick executes it.
16:35These two people are lined up in this structure.
16:38As Mr. Imamura said,
16:41even if Mr. Navarro issues the executive order,
16:44the U.S. Treasury Department
16:47and the U.S. Treasury Department
16:50have to deal with it.
16:53For example,
16:56Elon Musk's government employees
16:59will be fired soon.
17:02The government employees
17:05are in a state of disengagement.
17:08Even if you say something violent,
17:11you can't keep up with it.
17:14I think this is the reality of the Trump administration.
17:17Mr. Navarro's expression is very good.
17:20He has a sense of duty,
17:23and he's in such a good position.
17:26In the first round,
17:29he was locked up in a basement.
17:32When he was in charge of economic policy,
17:35he was a person who couldn't win even if he argued.
17:38Mr. Trump is a big fan of him.
17:41He has a sense of duty.
17:44He has a role to explain various policies.
17:47Can you show me the menu again?
17:50The biggest impact for Japan
17:53is automobiles.
17:56I'll discuss this later,
17:59but I'm a little curious about the comprehensive tax.
18:02It seems like anything is possible.
18:05The comprehensive tax issued by President Trump
18:08generally applies to other countries
18:11as well as the United States.
18:14In addition to that,
18:17if there is a non-comprehensive barrier,
18:20such as regulations,
18:23small tourism, consumption tax, exchange rate, etc.,
18:26it is possible to impose a comprehensive tax.
18:29In Japan, for example,
18:32there is no comprehensive tax on imported cars from the United States.
18:35But on the right side,
18:38it even mentions consumption tax and exchange rate.
18:41I'm a little curious about this.
18:44This is an example,
18:47but it means that anything is possible.
18:50In other words,
18:53there may be a logic to impose a comprehensive tax on the other party,
18:56but it doesn't matter what the logic is.
18:59For example, in the case of cars in Japan,
19:02there is a list of countries that are not included in the list.
19:05There is a list of countries that are not included in the list.
19:08It's been said for a long time.
19:11There are a lot of things like that.
19:14There is a list of countries that are not included in the list.
19:20Japan is not included in the list at this time,
19:23but the Japanese Prime Minister,
19:26Mr. Nadoniki, has already mentioned Japanese automobiles.
19:29I think that's the reason why Japan is not included in the list.
19:32I think that's the reason why Japan is not included in the list.
19:35And, of course, the other country is also thinking about retaliation in various ways.
19:38And, of course, the other country is also thinking about retaliation in various ways.
19:41Let's take a look at the retaliation tax.
19:44Canada is considering retaliation in two stages.
19:47First, $300 billion in orange juice and whiskey,
19:50and a total of 3.1 trillion yen in Japanese yen.
19:5325% of the comprehensive tax was issued on the 4th.
19:56By the end of this month,
19:59$1.25 billion worth of American products
20:02were planned to be added to the 25% comprehensive tax,
20:05but when the United States received the response
20:08and saw the release until April 2,
20:11the Canadian Prime Minister Le Blanc made it clear on social media.
20:14And Mexico was scheduled to announce a retaliation measure on the 9th,
20:17but it was postponed after a phone conversation with President Trump.
20:20but it was postponed after a phone conversation with President Trump.
20:23On February 4, when the 10% additional tax was issued,
20:26the LNG was issued a 15% additional tax on coal
20:29and was issued on the 10th.
20:32When the United States issued a 10% additional tax on wheat, corn, chicken,
20:35and noodles on the same day on March 4,
20:38the LNG was issued a 15% additional tax on wheat, corn, chicken,
20:41and was issued on the 10th of this month.
20:44and was issued on the 10th of this month.
20:47There were talks about retaliation.
20:50I'd like to ask the three of you, what do you think will happen in the end?
21:00First of all, what do you think will happen to Mexico and Canada?
21:10Mr. Kraft, what do you think?
21:12The most important point is that the United States seems to be in a strong position,
21:22but if you think about it in terms of time, the longer this continues, the weaker the United States will be.
21:28In other words, the domestic inflation will increase and the dissatisfaction with the Trump administration will increase.
21:35In a sense, this is a short-term gamble by Trump.
21:39He wants to say that he has achieved this by winning each and every deal with each country in a short period of time.
21:48However, if the other country does nothing but retaliate and this continues forever,
21:55the time will become weaker for the Trump administration in the United States,
22:00so I think that kind of gamble will be very important from now on.
22:05What you're saying is that, for example, if Mexico and Canada get what they can get,
22:09or if a company directly invests in the United States,
22:13in the end, there is a high possibility that this 25 will disappear.
22:16If it doesn't come out, the biggest problem the Trump administration has is domestic inflation.
22:21If this continues, it will increase inflation, so I want to take that down.
22:25In the press conference, Trump said,
22:27there will be short-term difficulties, but that's fine.
22:30In other words, in the short term, the United States is prepared to suffer a little,
22:35but in the long term, if you look at it the other way around,
22:39it is reflected in the fact that it will be put in a tough position.
22:44Mr. Hosokawa, what do you think?
22:46As you said, in the short term, what kind of structure is the Trump administration's head?
22:53As I said earlier, the middle of the election,
22:55winning here is the biggest structure of his head.
22:59Then, just before the middle of the election,
23:02if the stock price is maintained properly and the voters can appeal properly,
23:07it doesn't matter if the stock price drops temporarily.
23:11At the right time, you can talk about losing inflation and raising the market.
23:16Moreover, we have to look at the timeline.
23:21We can't just look at it now and discuss it.
23:24In that case, during the election,
23:27I want the results of the Trump administration to be able to say that
23:30I have taken this as a profit in the middle of the election.
23:35I will negotiate from where it is easy to get the results.
23:38It was the same in the first Trump administration.
23:41We fight from the opponent who is easy to fight with.
23:44This is a good way to fight.
23:46Mexico and Canada depend on America by 70% of their exports,
23:52so they can't escape.
23:53No matter how much they fight back,
23:55if they have a physical fight, they will lose completely.
23:57In that case, they will definitely come out with something.
24:00If they get results here, it's over.
24:02So I think this is the starting point.
24:05Mr. Imamura, can I ask you a question?
24:08When you look at it from a corporate perspective,
24:11I think everyone is wondering whether they should say that
24:15they will directly invest in the United States.
24:18In the end, if there are a lot of negotiations and the inflation is zero again,
24:23wouldn't it be a waste to say it?
24:26I wonder what everyone is thinking about that.
24:29The three countries that are trying to do this,
24:32the United States is a country with a lot of exports from the United States.
24:35On the contrary, using this,
24:37for example, Mexico is an American farmer.
24:40This person is terrible.
24:42I'm going to hurt you.
24:43The American farmer asked Trump to stop it.
24:47Mr. Imamura also said that Mexico and Canada will eventually become zero.
24:51Especially Canada, the trade deficit in the United States is not that big.
24:56In addition, a large proportion of exports from Canada is oil.
25:00This is something that the United States needs.
25:02If this doesn't come in, the price of gasoline will go up.
25:05Other than that, there are actually a lot of oil from Canada and the United States.
25:10If you target that, it works pretty well.
25:13Then I think it will be a form of getting back.
25:16Mr. Hosokawa, you were talking about it earlier.
25:18China is a different story.
25:20China was completely left behind during the first Trump administration.
25:25The Biden administration also pulled too much.
25:27There is a possibility that what has been added will remain this time as well.
25:30I think it will remain.
25:31In addition, this negotiation with China is a problem with Russia and Ukraine.
25:37I think we will follow this process of creating energy and time in China for the first time after some time has passed.
25:45Then, just before the midterm elections,
25:49I think the Trump administration is thinking about making a deal with China and making a big deal.
25:56At that time, I think the big point from now on is how far the deal will go.
26:01I see.
26:02Let me just say one thing at this important time.
26:05The midterm elections will be held in November 2026.
26:09The election campaign will start six months before that.
26:12So this year will probably be the game.
26:15That's right.
26:16From that point of view, we have to say the results of the market while lowering our fists a little.
26:23After the commercial break, we will think about whether Japan can avoid car tariffs.
26:34From here, we will discuss carefully whether Japan can avoid car tariffs.
26:41First of all, in the policy speech held on the 4th by President Trump,
26:45he talked mainly about tariffs.
26:48Many countries such as the EU, China, Brazil, India, and Korea have imposed tariffs far higher than the tariffs imposed by the United States.
26:56This is unfair.
26:57And Mexico and Canada need to do more than this,
27:02and we must stop the drugs such as fentanyl imported into the United States.
27:07And in the policy speech, there was no discussion about tariffs and Japan.
27:14Mr. Kraut, what do you think about the fact that the name of Japan was not mentioned when it comes to tariffs?
27:19As an interesting chart, there is an average tariff rate for trade and the United States.
27:27If you look at it,
27:30you can see that China, Korea, and India, where the average tariff rate is high, are on the side in the policy speech.
27:41This chart or this data is in President Trump's head.
27:47There is a possibility that countries with such a high tariff rate will become targets in the future.
27:53On the other hand, Japan has a very low tariff rate for the United States,
27:58so it may be a weak expectation,
28:01but there is a possibility that Japan will be exempted.
28:06However, the situation is very close to Canada.
28:10Since Canada is on the side, it is not a situation that can be assured.
28:16However, I heard from the policy speech that Japan is looking at this kind of data and is investigating various things.
28:23This blue bar graph is the trade tariff rate when viewed from the United States.
28:27In that case, Japan is in the 7th place.
28:31And this red line graph is the average tariff rate.
28:36The point is that the United States cannot impose tariffs on all countries.
28:51So, I think that some countries will be exempted and some countries will be excluded.
29:02Mr. Hosokawa, how should we look at the fact that Japan was not targeted?
29:06As Mr. Kraft said, this is a graph that looks at the trade tariff rate and tariff rate,
29:13and it is a ranking of countries that have not been excluded from the United States.
29:17Japan is not included in this ranking.
29:20However, the other important thing is that Japan is saying that it will impose tariffs on automobiles.
29:24The largest export country of automobiles to the United States is Japan.
29:29If you put a chair of a Japanese-owned company from Mexico, it's a big country.
29:34It's an impossible composition to impose tariffs on automobiles without Japan.
29:39And after this speech, the director-general of NATO,
29:44while speaking to the press corps, put the names of Japan in it.
29:49China, India, Japan.
29:52So, this is clearly in that position.
29:55We will look at it and announce it next week.
30:01I think it's better to talk about it on that premise.
30:04Anyway, when you think about the impact on the employment of the Japanese economy,
30:08if 25% of what is exported from Japan is tariffed,
30:13this is a ridiculous story.
30:16I want to discuss what will happen there.
30:19First of all, let's look at the tariff rate of the US and Japan.
30:22If you look at the red area, it says automobiles.
30:25In fact, the Japanese side has no tariff on imports from the US.
30:30It's not tariffed.
30:31As for what is exported from Japan to the US,
30:35I'm looking at the actual tax rate, 1.9%.
30:38It is also said that 2.5% is tariffed on the front.
30:43In other words, the Japanese side is supposed to be strong.
30:47It's not a situation where you can say anything,
30:51but there is a story of comprehensive tariff,
30:54a comprehensive tariff for anything.
30:57In fact, there are various contracts with Trump during Mr. Abe's time.
31:04Let's take a look at this.
31:05This is the US-Japan trade agreement.
31:07In September 2019, a certain amount of agricultural products and industrial goods
31:11that were exchanged between President Trump and Prime Minister Abe at the time
31:14It's a reduction of additional tariffs.
31:17The expiration date of automobiles and automobile parts is not specified.
31:21In the joint statement at this time,
31:23While the two countries of the United States and Japan are sincerely implementing the agreement,
31:27It is written that it does not take action against the spirit of the agreement and the joint statement.
31:33And Prime Minister Abe said at the Budget Committee of the Prime Minister,
31:37Mr. Abe confirmed that he would not increase additional tariffs by more than 232 among President Trump.
31:44This is an extremely heavy promise between the two leaders.
31:47It's not just a verbal promise.
31:51In other words, the current state of competition continues,
31:54so it is a promise between Mr. Abe and Trump that the tariffs will not be changed.
32:00Mr. Hosokawa, how should we look at this?
32:02I think this is a very heavy statement.
32:06That's what the Diet has said so far.
32:09Prime Minister Motegi also admits it.
32:12Then, this time, Prime Minister Muto issued a statement.
32:17First of all, we have to cut out from here.
32:19I think that the negotiations around automobiles have been mixed up.
32:25I'll tell you later what it is.
32:27This is exactly what it is.
32:29First of all, this is a Japanese advantage that other countries do not have.
32:33It's a promise between President Trump and the leaders.
32:44It doesn't matter because it's Prime Minister Ishiba.
32:47It's a ridiculous story.
32:49This is a country-to-country relationship.
32:51It is very important for me to attack from here.
32:53Mr. Hosokawa, Mr. Trump is the kind of person who reverses the USMCA.
32:58I think he's already forgotten about this.
33:00Even if he forgot about it,
33:02At that time, Grier, the USTR representative, was also there as a representative of Lighthizer.
33:14The government-to-government negotiations will begin from now on.
33:18I don't think it's a good idea to make an alibi that you simply told your opponent.
33:26We have to do this seriously.
33:28I don't think the National Assembly can do it.
33:30That's what the budget committee said.
33:33This is an extremely important agreement that Mr. Hosokawa said.
33:39There was another revolutionary agreement in this agreement.
33:43It's the fifth of the seven joint agreements.
33:47Japan doesn't have to buy American cars anymore.
33:51It's not going to sell.
33:53That's what happened in the 1980s.
33:57Instead, Japan is going to build a factory in the United States.
34:01It's going to create employment and invest.
34:05It's going to be a bargaining chip.
34:07It's going to be a bargaining chip.
34:09So, as a tool for negotiation,
34:12I think it's important to negotiate the US investment as a leverage card.
34:20The last thing I want to ask you is,
34:24Do you think it will affect the export from Japan?
34:28What do you think will happen in the end?
34:32Mr. Imamura, what do you think?
34:34Trump's biggest goal is probably to increase the number of cars produced in the United States.
34:39And then it's going to reverse that.
34:41I think it's going to calm down by saying that various car manufacturers, including Japan,
34:45will increase production in the United States and build factories.
34:49I think it's going to calm down by saying that even if you increase the number of cars produced in Japan by 25%, it's not going to benefit anyone.
34:54It's going to calm down by saying that various car manufacturers are going to invest in the United States.
35:00Let's take a look at a graph.
35:02This is a graph showing where car manufacturers are making cars and selling them in the United States.
35:09For example, let's look at Nissan.
35:11In Nissan, the light blue part is made in Mexico.
35:15The dark blue part is made in the United States.
35:18And then there's Sonota.
35:20I think Sonota is probably made in Japan and exported to the United States.
35:25If you look at this, for example, Matsuda's Sonota is very large.
35:28It's also exported from Japan.
35:30Toyota is also large.
35:32This gray part.
35:34When 25% of the company buys a car like this,
35:39there will be a strong employment problem, including the parts industry in Tsusono.
35:46Now, Mr. Hosokawa, how is this going to be resolved?
35:50As I just said, the Japanese government will definitely try to stop this.
35:54If you include the domestic automotive industry and related industries,
36:00it's 5.5 million jobs.
36:02It's going to affect this, so we're definitely going to stop it.
36:05At that time, I mentioned KONAN earlier.
36:08As I said earlier, as with the first Trump administration,
36:13they're paying attention to production and employment in the United States.
36:17So we're going to cooperate with them.
36:20Another thing is that Korea is negotiating with the U.S. last week.
36:28This was a week before the negotiations with Japan and the U.S.
36:32This is a very good example.
36:34They want to stop this in the same way.
36:37The card that was issued at that time was Alaska oil.
36:41The construction of Alaska's natural gas pipeline.
36:44The question is how to cooperate with this.
36:47In the press conference, Trump also mentioned it.
36:51Underneath that, there's the Korean...
36:55It's called the Korea-U.S. Independence Industrial Cooperation Fund.
36:59This agreement is actually going to create a labor union.
37:04Between the U.S. and Korea.
37:06Alaska's pipeline has been around since the 1970s.
37:14The reason why it didn't fly anymore is because the production doesn't match at all.
37:19American oil companies like Exxon are all withdrawing.
37:23It's a mess.
37:25The structure of this is to put pressure on Japan and Korea.
37:29The Japanese industry is completely negative.
37:32Korea is the same.
37:34However, I don't think it's a complete no.
37:37If you think about the car issue...
37:39I mentioned it in the policy speech.
37:41We're going to create a place to negotiate.
37:44We're going to look at the production and the detailed design.
37:51After all, the investment decision is at the end.
37:54We're going to negotiate slowly.
37:56That's the bottom line.
37:58I think Japan will learn from Korea and talk the same way.
38:02Another thing is the cooperation between Korea and the U.S.
38:07How to cooperate with the U.S. defense industry.
38:10I think it's going to be a big bullet.
38:12We're going to do two things.
38:15Investments in the U.S. and Korea.
38:18We're going to do something to contribute.
38:21We're going to do it in South Korea.
38:24We're going to prevent car tariffs.
38:27I think this is one strategy.
38:32After the commercial break, let's talk about the impact on the market.
38:39Next, the third one.
38:40Shaking market.
38:41How much is the stock price?
38:43First of all, let's look at the stock price since November of last year, when President Trump won.
38:47New York Dow Jones has changed from the expectations of regulation and cash flow.
38:51On December 4th, the highest price was $45,014.
38:55After that, adjustments were made and the price rose again from the beginning of the year.
38:59As a result, there was an increase in inflation.
39:03On March 3rd and 4th, the price dropped by about $1,300.
39:08It's below the level of November when he won.
39:12The daily average is also moving in the same way.
39:15And if you look at the drop rate of S&P 500, which is just before President Trump's inauguration.
39:24On the blue side, there is a big drop in general consumables, IT, energy, etc., which are sensitive to economy.
39:31On the lower side, defensive stocks such as daily necessities and health care are being bought.
39:37It looks like the stock price is going down a lot.
39:43Mr. Kraft, what do you think about this as a Trump administration?
39:47One thing to be aware of is that in addition to inflation, there is an increase in concerns about the economy.
39:56There are various indicators that are weakening.
39:58In addition to that, inflation has increased.
40:03However, even if the stock price is falling, it's still not high, so it's less than 7%.
40:10If you look at these three or four years, it's a very high level.
40:15In a sense, it's too high.
40:18So even if there is a certain amount of adjustment, it can't be helped.
40:23Even if there is a slight adjustment of 10% or more, I don't think the Trump administration's policy will change.
40:30At this level, there is not much that the American people are lowering the support rate more and more.
40:35As Mr. Hosokawa said, even if it goes down now, it won't affect the election.
40:41I want to see the stock price in a year's time, sell the production quickly, make a deal, and get results.
40:48I want to say that I did this much in a year's time, so I still have a little time.
40:54Mr. Imamura, how do you see this stock price drop?
40:58It's because those who pay the cost are ahead of the production.
41:03When the stock price went up, there was a bold financial restriction, including TEC and AI.
41:10There was a picture that the AI revolution would bloom here as well.
41:13And then there's the cash flow.
41:15But this is still a story that will take time.
41:19I think it's a number that reflects strongly the consumer's concern about inflation and so on.
41:29Various research institutes and universities are investing, but let's take a look at that.
41:34The Yale Institute of Financial Studies, which has an impact on the American economy, says that
41:38depending on the return on investment of Canada, Mexico, and China, consumer prices will increase by 0.97% to 1.22%,
41:45and that the burden of $1,600 to $2,000 per unit will increase.
41:50And the actual GDP in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.6%.
41:56As for employment, the Brookings Institute predicts that more than 170,000 people in the United States will lose their jobs
42:04due to Canadian and Mexican employment, and that more than 400,000 people will lose their jobs if the return on investment is activated.
42:11And as for corporate profits, Morgan Stanley predicts that S&P 500 corporate profits will decrease by 5% to 7% by 2026.
42:22J.P. Morgan's analyst estimates that car manufacturers will increase their costs due to inflation,
42:28and that GM will increase their costs by about $140 billion and Ford by about $6 billion.
42:33Mr. Imamura, what do you think about this?
42:35Yes.
42:36First of all, inflation is something that limits sales, so you can't absorb that much money, especially not 25%.
42:43So it's a company that's going to be the final consumer, and it's going to affect consumers.
42:49And you know very well that this is going to lead to inflation.
42:54If you add up all the things that happened, it's going to be this much.
42:58It's a number that's pretty close to the worst.
43:01However, in addition to this, companies in the United States, which are likely to have an advantage in competition,
43:07will be able to rise to their feet if they are completely protected.
43:10And it's not going to be a technology revolution or an infrastructure revolution, but it's going to be a shareholder reduction.
43:15It's going to be this kind of repetition, so it's not a very good policy.
43:20If you push this forward, it's probably not going to benefit the manufacturing industry.
43:24So I'd like you to do it moderately, but these numbers have come out so far.
43:29Mr. Hosokawa, what do you think?
43:31There's no doubt that inflation is a negative factor, but it's not going to be the same as inflation on the premise of this kind of asset.
43:38Ah, in the end.
43:39So you don't have to worry about that.
43:42Rather, in the United States, the immigration policy is going to be a burden on labor demand.
43:47And then what happens to the pre-emptive policy?
43:50And then what happens to the FED's financial policy?
43:52This is going to change the impact.
43:55I don't think we need to focus on this at once.
43:58Mr. Kurawa, the thing I'm most concerned about is when inflation really comes out.
44:02The Biden administration also dropped its support by inflation.
44:06What do you think about this?
44:08One of the strategies to reduce inflation is to reduce the price of the products that the American people feel and touch the most.
44:27The only product that the Trump administration can do is gasoline.
44:33So if we can at least reduce the price of gasoline, it's going to work if the consumer has the illusion that the inflation has subsided for the midterm elections.
44:46However, this is a sharp sword.
44:48The lower the price, the less likely it is that the production capacity of shale gas will be weakened.
44:55So we can't go too low.
44:58So I think it's important to see if the Tsunawatari policy will work.
45:04I couldn't ask you a question earlier, but I'd like to ask you about Mexico and Canada.
45:13The ultimate goal is through China.
45:18China is now exporting to the United States through Mexico and Asia.
45:25So it's not that the United States is imposing import tariffs on China, but that Mexico should impose import tariffs only on Chinese products.
45:34Some people say that.
45:36What do you think about this?
45:38This is an idea that the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs said so that Mexico and Canada would not be impacted.
45:45I think this is also a powerful idea.
45:48However, what we need to be careful about is that if this kind of movement spreads in the future, what will Japan do?
45:55There are various countries that are imposing tariffs on China.
46:00Japan does not have the means to retaliate against China's economic pressure.
46:05So I think there is a problem of whether Japan can respond to this kind of situation.
46:09Mr. Kurata, if Mexico and Canada do that, Japan will also be pressured to do the same.
46:18There are various pressures, such as not to sell to this Chinese company, or to impose tariffs.
46:25I think it's a matter of how the companies and the government can get through that.
46:32Mr. Imamura, I think everyone is wondering how far they can invest directly.
46:38There is also a question of how much power the Trump administration has.
46:41In the end, if it becomes zero again, there is also a way of thinking that what was said is a loss.
46:47What should Japanese companies do?
46:49The U.S. government is still active as a base.
46:52If that happens, the U.S. government will attack it directly.
46:54And if it doesn't have anything to do with this, I think it's better to leave regardless of that.
47:01That's all for the special.
47:03After the commercial break, we will have market information.
47:11The guest of tomorrow's Nikkei Sunday Salon is former Minister of Digital Makishima Karen.
47:16I would like to ask you about the political issues that he himself is working on, such as the New Year's budget proposal.
47:21Please take a look.
47:22Here is the market information.
47:24On the 7th, New York Dow Jones rebounded in the New York stock market.
47:29The end was $42,801, which is $222.
47:33This week, it has fallen by $1,039.
47:36NASDAQ, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, also rebounded.
47:39The end was $18,196, which is 126 points higher.
47:44The end of the New York foreign exchange market was $1,148, which is $5,000 cheaper.
47:51The average daily income in Chicago is $37,270.
47:55It is about $380 higher than the average daily income on Friday.
48:00I asked a market official about the stock price at the end of March.
48:04Kinouchi of the Daiwa Shouken is $39,000.
48:07He is worried about the U.S. customs policy, but on the contrary,
48:10he points out that it will be a situation in which the increase in production in each country will be evaluated by the U.S. import and export of customs.
48:17And today's guest, Mr. Kraft, is $37,000.
48:20It is an unstable development until the implementation of mutual customs.
48:23In the case of a customs exemption for Japanese aircraft, he predicts that Japan will improve.
48:30Mr. Kraft, is it okay to add?
48:31It's all a government negotiation.
48:34With the Trump administration.
48:36What are your plans for next week?
48:38First of all, as a negotiation.
48:40Mr. Hosokawa, the Minister of Foreign Affairs.
48:43As a basic stance, in order to avoid sparks,
48:49I need to say that Japan should apply its own country.
48:55But is it okay to stop just that?
48:59In addition, how do we cooperate with the EU, Korea, Mexico, and Canada to achieve international cooperation?
49:06This has to be a key point for Japan.
49:09Without the WTO, or without the stance of customs exemption,
49:13I don't think we can have international cooperation.
49:16So, as a basic action, I think we should think about the essential foreign policy stance.
49:24We will continue to check today's special and various events next week.
49:31Thank you, Mr. Hosokawa, Mr. Imamura, and Mr. Kraft.