Tinatin Japaridze, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss Russian and Ukrainian officials meeting in Turkey for peace negotiations.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is
00:07Tinantin Japaritse, analyst with Eurasia Group. Tinantin, thank you so much for joining me.
00:12Thank you so much, Brittany. Great to be back.
00:14Tinantin, I'm grateful for your expertise here because there was a historic moment on Friday
00:19in the Russia-Ukraine war. For the first time in over three years, officials from each side
00:24met in Istanbul. And before we talk about exactly what went on those negotiations, who was at the
00:30table, I think it's important to really talk about who wasn't at the table. Someone not at the table,
00:35Russian President Vladimir Putin. He did not show up in Turkey for the peace talks, despite being
00:40the leader who was the one who initially called for them. Then subsequently, President Trump said,
00:46since Putin's not going, I'm not showing up either. So to start off the conversation,
00:50what do you make of Putin and Trump not showing up for these negotiations?
00:54Well, going into the meeting, knowing what we knew as we were going into the meeting with
01:00President Putin and President Trump not attending after Vladimir Putin essentially decided that he
01:07would not be there in Istanbul, the expectations for real diplomatic progress were already very,
01:13very low. And the makeup of the delegations made it very clear. Now, on the Russian side,
01:19we saw presidential aide and former minister of culture, Vladimir Medinsky, who oversaw the last
01:25round of talks that you referred to, Brittany, in Istanbul in the spring of 2022. And then Ukraine
01:31was represented by a defense minister, not a deputy, but the actual defense minister,
01:36Rustem Umerov. So once the list of the Russian delegation was released, this mismatch in terms of
01:42balance immediately signaled that Moscow was going to be very limited in terms of its seriousness about
01:50this round of negotiations. So the positions on both sides were going to be rather lacking in balance.
01:58So the decision makers from the Ukrainian side were there, but the decision makers who could sign off
02:03on important matters on the Russian side were not.
02:06To that point, there was reporting that the Russian delegation was made up of low level and junior
02:12officials. What message is that sending on Russia's side that they're not serious about these talks? I mean,
02:19why even have them in the first place if you're not sending your top guys to negotiate?
02:23It is mostly symbolic, and it is a political move on Vladimir Putin's part. As you and I had discussed over the
02:32last few weeks, Russia was under pressure from President Trump to essentially do something
02:38or else. And the or else, no matter what Vladimir Putin may say on television, on live Russian TV,
02:46he does feel a little bit nervous because he does want to, on the one hand, have some sort of a
02:51normalization with the United States. And on the other hand, he wants to keep everyone guessing,
02:57while at the same time, we all know, of course, that he is not ready for actual peace negotiations.
03:04And it was very clear as soon as the list from the Russian side was made public, that he is not
03:11interested and not ready to have an actual conversation about a durable ceasefire, let alone a peace
03:19settlement. So let's talk about what we know so far from that conversation. As we talked about,
03:25this is the second one since the war started. The first one in over three years, it lasted under
03:30two hours. It was supposed to happen Thursday. It then happened Friday. What's the significance of
03:36this meeting? Because no ceasefire agreement was reached. That's right. That's right. And going into
03:42this, I think those of us that have been analyzing Russia, Ukraine, not just in terms of the actual war,
03:49but in general, Russia's history and Ukraine's history in dealing with such issues, it was very
03:57clear that Ukraine went into this wanting an actual durable ceasefire. And Russia was far less
04:05interested in this. So the expectations were very, very low. We weren't really expecting anything
04:12major to get accomplished. It is, as I said, mostly symbolic. It's something. So I don't want to
04:18diminish the importance of an actual gathering after three years of the two sides not talking to
04:24each other. But as we were talking earlier, it's important for us to remember who was at the table
04:29on both sides. And therefore, that lack of balance and that mismatch makes any takeaways from this
04:36meeting less important, less significant, because there was no one there from the Russian side to
04:42actually sign off on anything major. So as you said, Brittany, the meeting did last just under two
04:48hours. And Russia essentially put forth proposals that were far removed from previously discussed
04:54frameworks. Most notably, they demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Russian occupied territories
05:02inside Ukraine as a precondition for a ceasefire. Now, as a reminder, the Russian, sorry, the Ukrainian
05:09regions that Russia has occupied since 2022, they're not fully occupied by Russia. They are only under
05:18partial Russian occupation. So they essentially are saying, give us those regions, the Ukrainian regions,
05:25let's call them Russian once and for all. And then we can talk about a ceasefire, which, of course, this is
05:31a note and nonstarter for the Ukrainian side. So unsurprisingly, they dismiss these terms as
05:38unrealistic. So without prospects for a 30 day ceasefire, now Western backers, including the United
05:45States and the European Union, will feel increased pressure to have to somehow respond. And we can talk
05:52about that a little bit later about what those responses may look like.
05:56To your point, Ukraine said that what Russia offered, what they brought to the table were
06:01really just a series of nonstarters. One Ukrainian source told Voidors that what they were saying was
06:07detached from reality. So if they're just light years away going to the table, I mean, how far away
06:14do you think a tangible solution to this war is?
06:17Unfortunately, as per our prior conversations, it's highly unrealistic for us to imagine any sort of a
06:28solution anytime soon that ends the war, because we are talking about ending the war, any sort of a
06:34ceasefire, even if there is an agreement on a 30 day ceasefire on paper, it is bound to break down
06:41because of course, we're looking at a prior performance on the Russian side and their track
06:47record does not speak very highly in terms of how they would abide by whatever is agreed upon on paper.
06:54So for a ceasefire to actually be agreed upon, that could still happen, perhaps now closer to the fall
07:03or going into the fall rather than earlier. But in regards to a political settlement, we are still
07:12a long time away from that war actually ending, which of course puts President Trump in a very
07:19uncomfortable situation because as we all know, here in the United States especially, we were following
07:25his campaign very closely. And one of the big elements that he ran on was that promise that he would
07:31end the war very quickly. So he wants that quick victory. Now, the thing is, President Trump could
07:37still claim if a ceasefire is reached, and even if it is violated by either side, more than likely,
07:44it's going to be from the Russian side, he could still claim that he did his part, he actually delivered
07:51on his promise, and he ended the war. And whoever is going to be the culprit there, he is going to
07:57essentially make them responsible for not doing their part. But as far as he'll be concerned,
08:01he will say, look, I delivered on what I promised. It is no longer my fault, because now you have
08:08two actors that were supposed to abide by what was agreed upon in my presence.
08:14I want to talk now about Zelensky and his relationship with President Trump,
08:18because after the meeting, he posted on X a picture of himself, Keir Starmer, French President
08:25Macron. He said he was talking to Trump on the phone, and he said that in the meeting, quote,
08:30our position, if the Russians reject a full and unconditional ceasefire and an end to killings,
08:35tough sanctions must follow pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end
08:40the war. What do you think of the West's position? And what do you think of that conversation where
08:45President Trump was included? Well, it was important. It was very important. It showed
08:51something that has been lacking over the last few months, and that is Western unity, full Western
08:57unity vis-a-vis Ukraine and vis-a-vis the war more broadly. And it was very important for the European
09:04leaders to gather in the same room with President Zelensky and to reach out to President Trump,
09:11if nothing else, to urge him to not just maintain but also increase pressure on President Putin. Now,
09:17whether or not President Trump will do this in any major way before a meeting can happen between him
09:25and Putin remains to be seen. And to your earlier question, Brittany, it really remains to be seen
09:33how much can actually be done in a bilateral context between Trump and Putin. Because as we both know,
09:43there are two tracks that we are observing at the moment. There's the ceasefire-related conversations
09:50that the U.S. has been having with Russia. And then there's something that is more important,
09:56arguably, to President Trump and to President Putin as well, I would say, and that is normalization of
10:02economic and security relations between the two countries, between the United States and the Russian
10:08Federation. So there are moments when I do believe President Trump is more interested in normalizing
10:16the relations with Putin rather than necessarily putting too much pressure on him on Ukraine and
10:25on a possible ceasefire that can then in turn break the camel's back. Because at some point, President
10:31Putin may say, I am throwing the towel in, I am no longer interested. Now, I would sort of contradict
10:38myself right here and say that it is in President Putin's interest to normalize relations with the United
10:46States, because otherwise, no matter what anyone says about the global South and not the West, but
10:52certainly the rest that are siding with Putin on certain questions, perhaps not on Ukraine,
10:59it is in Putin's interest to have someone, especially a major player like the United States under Trump
11:06on his side, even if it's not on everything, at least on certain issues unrelated to Ukraine,
11:13because otherwise Russia is going to continue to be isolated. And that has not been a very easy
11:19isolation for Russia, no matter what Putin says publicly. It has hurt. It is hurting. And sanctions do
11:26come into play. I do feel that at the moment we are likelier to see more sanctions from the EU side
11:35rather than from the US side, because at the moment, as you may have seen, the European Commission
11:42announced that there would be an 18th package in addition to the 17th package that was very, very recently
11:49released. So they are trying to do what they can. Now, this is mostly symbolic. It is important. But at
11:57the same time, it is mostly symbolic, because now we're talking about maintaining pressure on Russia,
12:04rather than doing anything that has not been done thus far. I mean, there will be sanctions that were
12:10announced earlier today from the European Commission vis-a-vis first and foremost, the EU Commission
12:18talked about energy sector. So Nord Stream 1 and 2, as well as the financial sector. There's talks about
12:28revisiting the oil price cap and talking about that and seeing what can be done to, again, increase
12:36pressure on Russia, because at the end of the day, when we talk about the Russian energy, the Russian
12:42economy and sanctions related to the Russian economy, we are essentially talking about the Russian
12:50economic machine that is feeding the Russian war machine in Ukraine. So there is a direct correlation.
12:57And I think that it is important. It may be symbolic mostly, but it is important. And where the US
13:02is unable to do very much because President Trump is reluctant to burn a very fragile bridge that he
13:09is simultaneously trying to build with Putin. In terms of a bilateral format, the EU and the European
13:18leaders will have to do what they can to essentially fill those gaps that the United States, unfortunately,
13:25at the moment, is unable to fill just given the reality that we are in with the new administration.
13:31And I see just how advantageous it is for Russia and for Putin specifically,
13:37to have that relationship, the way less frosty relationship with President Trump and the United
13:42States. But why is President Trump building this bridge? I mean, what does this do for the United
13:46States? Where are the advantages to America when it comes to a better, more cordial relationship with
13:52Russia? It's actually a very dangerous potential solution, because I think President Trump is talking
14:00about this as a potential solution to the world's great problems. And I do have to disagree because
14:07I think that by trying to even consider rekindling relations with Vladimir Putin's Russia, we are,
14:16as a country in terms of our national security, playing with fire. It's very difficult under Putin to
14:24talk about revisiting and resetting relations with Moscow, because Russia is a very unreliable actor.
14:33And it's very difficult for us to talk about any sort of trust and rebuilding trust, because we know
14:40exactly what happens when when we talk about reset. We have seen this under President Obama. I do think
14:47that in hindsight, that may have been a big mistake that the United States made. And it would be very
14:55unfortunate if we ended up making that same mistake of trusting Russia when we know full well under Putin,
15:03what sort of a Russia we are dealing with. Now, on the other hand, pragmatically speaking, there are some
15:10analysts who talk about having to rebuild some sort of a relationship with Russia, even if we're not talking about
15:16warming of ties, per se, because this is the largest country that that we could be dealing with. So
15:23how can we even afford to ignore Russia as a potential partner? There is a very big difference between
15:32ignoring Russia and negotiating with Russia. And the way that Washington has been negotiating with Russia
15:42vis-a-vis Ukraine, as well as normalization of potential normalization of ties with Moscow.
15:50My fear is that knowing what we know in terms of what has gone on over the last couple of months,
15:55it will be very easy for Vladimir Putin to essentially take advantage of this oil branch
16:03extended by the United States if that so comes to pass. But what makes me feel more optimistic
16:09is the fact that President Trump can be very impulsive, as we know. He does tend to change his
16:16mind. He does hold his grudge whenever he gets upset at someone. So this could very well be Putin
16:22tomorrow. It was Zelensky a couple of months ago in the Oval Office. So he can flip in terms of his
16:30thinking, in terms of his strategy, in terms of his foreign policy broadly. So my optimism is that if and when,
16:38and I think it's really mostly a matter of time, so it's about when, we see that this very fragile
16:45bridge that President Trump may be trying to build with Putin does actually collapse, that could
16:54potentially make President Trump realize that Putin is not someone that he can trust, and that he has to
17:02put his eggs in the other basket. And that basket is at least vis-a-vis the Eurasian part of the world,
17:09talking about Western unity, and helping Ukraine because our partner, a reliable partner when it
17:15comes to this war, is not Russia. It is about Ukraine. It's about keeping Europe safe and secure, and
17:24rebuilding Ukraine. Because at the end of the day, that partnership in the long term, I think,
17:30could be more beneficial to the United States, even if we're not talking about the sorts of numbers
17:35that we could be talking about vis-a-vis Russia, while the situation in Russia continues to be what
17:40it is at the moment, because Vladimir Putin will not be here forever. We are all here for a limited
17:47time. And when that day comes, and there is a new leadership in Russia, then depending on who comes in,
17:54we can actually talk about an actual reset. Right now, we are talking about maintaining pressure
18:00on Putin, getting what the US needs in terms of the war and ending the war as much as they can.
18:08And at the same time, of course, we are not talking about necessarily aggravating Russia any further.
18:13So nobody is calling for a war between the US and Russia. We are just talking about being pragmatic and
18:19understanding that trusting Vladimir Putin and Putin's Russia is not in the interest of the United
18:25States and Western Europe. And President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio really put Trump in
18:31the center of this, essentially saying, there will be no breakthrough until President Trump himself
18:37meets with Vladimir Putin one on one. And aside from the 1000 prisoner swap on each side, there was
18:44nothing really that came out of this meeting on Friday. So what specifically are you looking out
18:49for between now and what President Trump describes as that breakthrough when he meets with Putin personally?
18:56Well, Brittany, it could be a breakthrough in President Trump's relationship with President
19:02Putin. And now I'm just talking about individuals here, and individual politicians. I don't anticipate any
19:08breakthrough, any major breakthrough that can actually hold in terms of relations between the United
19:15States and the Russian Federation, even if and when that meeting does happen. And I do believe that it
19:21will happen sooner or later. And I certainly don't anticipate any miracles in regards to ending the war.
19:28So I don't think that we are looking at a reality anytime soon in the foreseeable future, where you and I
19:35will be sitting here talking about a meeting between Trump and Putin that ended, and then the war ended
19:42in Ukraine. I don't think that that's going to happen. I wish that were not the case. But realistically,
19:47that cannot really be the case. Because at the end of the day, Vladimir Putin sees very little incentive
19:54to negotiate a ceasefire, let alone a political settlement, especially with a possible Russian offensive
20:00that is looming this summer that could happen in Ukraine. And he is insisting on Ukrainian concessions,
20:06including an end to military aid from the West as a prerequisite for a truce, which Kyiv will not
20:12accept under any circumstances, because Ukraine knows exactly who they're living with next door to. And they
20:19are not going to be able to trust Russia, even if there is a limited, even if it's a durable ceasefire,
20:25but one that will end at some point, because that is not a peace settlement. And they will still be
20:30living next to Russia, geography will not change. So not having any military aid from the West is a
20:37kiss of death for Zelensky politically, and a kiss of death for Ukraine as a sovereign nation. And
20:44meanwhile, we're going to see President Zelensky and European leaders that insist on a ceasefire first,
20:49and then talks. And Putin wants the opposite. He wants continued talks, more talks after talks,
20:56and then maybe a ceasefire. So bridging these fundamental divides will be extremely difficult.
21:03And one of the signposts for myself is seeing whether over the next few weeks, and perhaps even
21:10the next couple of months, there will be some progress on either of the sides that shows us that
21:17bridging the fundamental divides is going to be possible. Now, without trust, and there is still
21:24no trust between Putin and Zelensky, and more broadly, Russia as a country and Ukraine as a country.
21:31So therefore, for us to talk about any sort of a solution in the near future is going to be very,
21:37very difficult. And that signpost of rebuilding trust, I'm just not seeing anything at the moment.
21:45And if the meeting that we saw in Istanbul, and the actual composition of the delegations and that
21:52disparity, that mismatch, that is very telling to me, and until we see another sort of a composition
22:00on the Russian side, where we can talk about Vladimir Putin actually changing his mind, taking
22:06this very seriously, and intending to if not end the war to at least talk about tangible solutions and
22:14a tangible ceasefire in the foreseeable future, then I'm afraid that our signposts that you and I have
22:21been discussing over the last couple of months will remain the same. What I will be watching separately
22:28will be whether or not there are any negotiations in regards to the normalization that are referred
22:35to earlier between the United States and Russia. That will be interesting because that is in many
22:40ways an independent track, where you only have two actors and it takes two to tango. There we may see
22:48some action. But of course, all of that could disappear and go away if President Trump and President Putin
22:54fall out over Ukraine, which could very well happen. Well, there are certainly a lot of variables up in
23:01the air. I always appreciate your analysis here. Thank you so much for the conversation. And as more
23:08develop out of this war and out of potential talks, I hope you come back on and break them down.
23:13Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for having me.
23:24Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:29Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:31Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:33Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:35Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:37Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:39Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:41Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:43Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.
23:45Tinantin Jabritze, thank you for joining me. Thank you for joining me.