This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. What was the cause of Monday’s thunderstorms, and will we see any more soon? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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00:00Some seriously big thunderstorms, incessant spring sunshine, and will we see any rain in the forecast?
00:08We'll try and answer that big question in this week's Met Office Deep Dye.
00:13We'll be looking also closely at those big thunderstorms that occurred yesterday.
00:17And talking about the weather this week, which is basically dry and for many of us sunny,
00:22and it has been a very dry and sunny spring so far.
00:25Thanks for being there. My name's Alex Deakin.
00:27I'm a meteorologist and climate communicator here at the Met Office.
00:33And yeah, thank you very much for being there.
00:35This is the Met Office Deep Dye, 20, 30 minutes or so, where we unpack what's happened,
00:41what's going to happen in our atmosphere.
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01:18Lots to go through.
01:20It's been a busy few days, even though high pressure is still pretty much in control.
01:24There's still plenty to talk about weather-wise.
01:26Some huge, huge downpours yesterday.
01:28But as always, as we get late spring into summer, they're very hit and miss.
01:32So yeah, if you caught a downpour yesterday, you certainly knew about it.
01:35But the vast majority just had a fine and sunny day.
01:38So we'll be taking a look at just what happened through Monday afternoon, because it was quite exciting.
01:4414,000 lightning strikes across England and Wales in the 24 hours of Monday.
01:51That's quite a few.
01:52It was quite an active afternoon.
01:54And it was mostly through the course of the afternoon.
01:57So let's take a look at those thundery downpours that we saw yesterday.
02:01The satellite sequence as we went through the course of the past 24 hours.
02:04You can see the little swirl down here.
02:06That's an area of low pressure.
02:08Our weather's still dominated by high pressure.
02:10But we've had this low just edging up from the southwest.
02:12It turned things a bit showery in the southwest through Sunday.
02:16Some heavy, thundery showers.
02:18And then those thunderstorms got a bit more lively as we went through yesterday afternoon.
02:22Let's zoom right in on those, because you can just see the clouds bubbling up here in this zone,
02:27just from the northwest of London up to mid and north Wales.
02:32Because they'd really popped off just through the course of the afternoon.
02:36You can see them there, like little popcorn going off just in that zone right there.
02:43Let's zoom in a little bit more, because that's really where all the action is.
02:47Started off with the sunshine.
02:49Now, notice this zone of cloudy weather down to the southwest.
02:53That helped to stop too many thunderstorms breaking out here.
02:57They were really in this zone.
02:58Once the early cloud cleared, then that was where the sun was able to beat down all day.
03:03And that's where we got the heating.
03:05The sun heats the surface.
03:06And when it's moist enough, that rising air develops and gives you the chain of thunderstorms moving along there.
03:14That was the zone that saw all the heaviest downpours.
03:18Quite a lot of hail, a few gusty winds, some lightning strikes that caused some damage, caused some fires,
03:25as well as causing a tree fire, a building fire as well.
03:29Let's take a look at that lightning as we go through yesterday afternoon.
03:33Rewind it back to there.
03:35Zoom in again, because it's in this chain.
03:38It's almost like a line, and that's the convergence line.
03:40That's where the thunderstorms were playing through yesterday afternoon.
03:45You can see that line, and there's another line there.
03:47And it's in that zone where we saw those thunderstorms breaking out as we went through yesterday afternoon.
03:53Either side of it, well, it was the odd shower here and there, but many places, as I said, were dry, fine, and sunny.
03:58I mean, late in the day, some of those showers drifted north into parts of southwest Scotland.
04:03So what was going on with the weather?
04:05Well, the weather pattern looked like this.
04:10This was our analysis.
04:12Every six hours, the Met Office makes one of these charts for the analysis of what's going on with the weather.
04:20Pressure pattern, old school black and white version there.
04:22There's the UK, and they can just about make it out.
04:25Low pressure down to the southwest.
04:27Generally, this high is still in control, but this low has been shimmying its way northwards.
04:31There wasn't much on this weather front.
04:33If we zoom in a little bit, we can take a closer look.
04:36There wasn't much on this weather front, but that's where that cloudier zone was across the southwest.
04:40This little feature here, funky-looking feature, that is a convergence line.
04:45A convergence line is where the winds are literally converging.
04:50Winds in different directions are coming together.
04:52And when you get a convergence line, if they're strong enough and opposed to each other enough, there's only one way.
04:58If you're colliding two things like that, the wind, this is the surface.
05:02It can't go down into the surface.
05:04There's only one way that it can go, and that's up.
05:06So what happens is the two winds can collide and push the air up.
05:10So that, with the heating of the ground from the sun, generates big clouds and eventually thunderstorms, cumulonimbus clouds.
05:18So it's in this zone here where the wind's coming in like this from around low pressure and coming in more from the east further north.
05:26That was the convergence zone.
05:27That was where we saw that spark.
05:28That's where the thunderstorms really went off, helped by that heating of the sun as well.
05:34Something else to show you now.
05:35This is where we saw the thunderstorms.
05:37So this is the rainfall accumulations through yesterday from those heavy showers and thunderstorms.
05:45This is how much rain accumulated.
05:47And you can just see the stripes, the lines as those thunderstorms developed and moved along with the winds, taking them that way, taking them that way.
05:56And this yellow outline, well, that's the warning area, the warning area that the Met Office issued on Sunday for those thunderstorms.
06:04So you can see it's a pretty accurate forecast for those warning areas, the darker colors, the darker oranges.
06:10That's where we saw the most amount of rainfall.
06:12So that's the warning area that we issued.
06:14And notice there's quite a strong cutoff there, that line going north.
06:19We didn't see many in here.
06:21And that's because of that, well, partly because of that cloud that was there initially that stopped that heating.
06:26So it didn't have quite as long for the showers to get going here.
06:29They weren't quite as powerful.
06:31There were other factors, as we'll see shortly.
06:32But that was one of the reasons why that cloud here initially, if we didn't see as many thunderstorms to the south.
06:38There were a few come the afternoon, but they weren't as intense and they weren't as heavy.
06:42So that's the zone that we saw those thundery downpours.
06:45As I said, they caused a few issues.
06:47We had fires reported, a building struck by lightning and also some large hailstones recorded.
06:55Probably seen a fair few pictures on social media.
06:58This, an example from my very good friend, John Hammond, my former colleague at the BBC Weather Centre, still a weather presenter on the BBC, along with a Radio 4 continuity announcer.
07:12A good mate of mine, a very knowledgeable weather presenter and meteorologist.
07:15And this is this is his hand taking the photograph of the hail that he saw in his garden when he got home.
07:24And it was still there this morning.
07:25Actually, it was enough hail.
07:26And he lives just just outside High Wycombe.
07:29There was enough hail and it was cold enough for it to stick around through the night.
07:33And still some some slushy deposits left even this morning.
07:36So the whole place was covered.
07:37And Sarah Thornton, if you follow her on Twitter, she posted a load of really good pics about about around that area as well of the looking like snow almost with with a covering in many places of the hailstones.
07:49So, yeah, a couple of centimetres diameter from the hailstones caused by those thunderstorms.
07:56Now, let's zoom in a little bit on those storms because something quite interesting happened.
08:00If we show the radar, shown the lightning.
08:04But let's just look at those storms as they developed.
08:06Again, let's zoom in a little bit and we can probably pick out.
08:14Zoom in a bit more.
08:15I can pick out where's Reading.
08:16Yeah, I knew Reading was going to pop up.
08:17So there's Reading.
08:18There's London.
08:19And in this zone, High Wycombe's just just up there, isn't it?
08:21So that's kind of where we saw some of the most powerful showers through yesterday afternoon.
08:27And they kind of kept coming for a few hours.
08:30If we take it right back to where we can, two o'clock in the afternoon.
08:34You can see them there developing, kind of spotty, a bit all over the place.
08:39But an hour, just an hour later, they're kind of developing into bigger, more organised cells.
08:44And that one kind of spawns out the back.
08:47And then you see another one coming off the back of that one.
08:52And this is kind of, it's a bit like back, it's what's called back building within thunderstorms.
08:57So you get a storm, it's actually moving that way bodily.
09:01As you can see, there are developing out there.
09:03But out of the back of that storm, because of that convergence line, there's winds coming out the back of the storm.
09:07It's hitting that convergence line.
09:08So it's just keeping things going.
09:09So you get what's called back building.
09:11So it can seem as if the thunderstorms are stationary.
09:14And if we zoom out, you can kind of look, you can kind of see that a little bit better.
09:18If you watch this area of rain compared to that zone of thunderstorms, then that area of rain on the radar moves much faster.
09:28If you watch it again here, you can see that's moving much faster than that zone there.
09:32And the winds aren't very different.
09:34So that's a kind of, what you can see there is that storm just back building.
09:40So yes, there is a bodily movement of the thunderstorm, but then it back builds again because of the outdraft in the back of the thunderstorm.
09:46And again, that convergence line is still in place.
09:48So it's just pushing the air up again.
09:50So you get another storm building behind one.
09:52And that can cause flooding.
09:54If you get thunderstorm after thunderstorm after thunderstorm, they are actually slightly different cells.
09:58It's not all the same thunderstorm.
10:00The thunderstorm is moving, but it's generating a new one behind it.
10:04And that back building can drop a lot of rain in the same place if you get the weather situation just right.
10:10And it was kind of just right for that.
10:12Fortunately, it did move through quite a bit.
10:14We think somewhere between about 40 and 50 millimeters may have fallen in an hour.
10:18Most of the rain actually missed the Met Office rain gauges.
10:21The official wettest place yesterday, I think, had 17 millimeters of rain.
10:24But there were quite a few unofficial reports on the network of about 30 to 40 millimeters of rain.
10:31We think we may have seen 50 millimeters of rain.
10:33The radar was probably overreading because of the amount of hail.
10:37So when it's hailing, the radar gets a bit confused by the amount of hailstones, particularly if they're large hail.
10:42And so the radar is probably overreading.
10:44It's not reflective of how much rain was falling.
10:46But, yeah, we think somewhere between about 30, 40, perhaps as much as 50 millimeters of rain fell in an hour as these storms move through.
10:54And then they move through up into parts of parts of Wales as well and kept going with that back building.
11:00And then later in the day, we saw something even more remarkable.
11:03We saw some outflow showers developing.
11:07I'm going to show you the satellite picture of that.
11:10So this is a satellite loop, again, of those storms.
11:15So there's the UK, a lot of low cloud and ha, by the way, around the coasts up in the northeast yesterday.
11:21There's that cloud down across the southwest, which at least initially suppressed some of the showers here.
11:30But I think just, yes, this zone here where we want to watch.
11:33So if we play through that, if you're going to play, there we go.
11:38So that cloud cleared.
11:40And then just look at that.
11:41That's where the convergence zone is.
11:42So the winds are coming in here.
11:48And then with that low pressure, they're coming in here as well.
11:50So that's where you're getting that convergence line.
11:53You see those winds just converging, forcing the air up.
11:57So that's one of the elements that helps to create the forcing.
12:01So the showers are building here.
12:03You can see the different nature.
12:04You can just about make out, if you can see it closely there, you can actually see some of the shadows, just how tall those showers are.
12:10So you can see the shower clouds in here, that spotty nature, whereas in here, it's more of an old weather front.
12:16So it's more stratocumulus, altocumulus in here.
12:18It's not as active.
12:20It's not as tall.
12:21But you can actually see the shower clouds building their own, creating their own shadows there.
12:27And as we go through the afternoon, well, they really pop off into those cells there.
12:31That's beautiful.
12:32Really pop off.
12:32And then by the time we get to the evening, so I've cut the time off here.
12:35But this is kind of getting into the evening.
12:36And you can see the shadows are even stronger now as the sun is setting.
12:41And you can just see the depth of the clouds here, whereas it did brighten up further south.
12:46And there were one or two showers.
12:47It just didn't have the same amount of time or the same amount of moisture to generate the showers here.
12:52And one thing I want you to point out here, this little line that just breaks out here is an outflow.
12:57So these showers here are generating, again, pushing an outflow out where the showers, you've got the cooler air that's condensing,
13:05that's pushing down through the thunderstorm.
13:07And that's moving out.
13:09And that's hitting and then rising again as you get that outdraft.
13:13It's a bit like a cold front generating ahead of it.
13:16So these are outdraft showers.
13:17There's a line of them there just about make it out in there.
13:21And there's a really faint one just outside of London there as well.
13:24So some really interesting meteorology going on as these showers were building and decaying, generating their own outflow and generating their own little bits of weather, little extra then areas of showers too.
13:36So it's slightly different to the back building, but it's, again, just an example of how thunderstorms breed other thunderstorms.
13:42It's not just a case of one shower going up and creating another one.
13:48Let me try and demonstrate that with a bit of my world-class geography.
13:54So you get the heating of the air, heating of the land rather, which generates, oh, they're not very clear, are they?
14:06Why are they not very clear?
14:08Anyway, you get heating of the air.
14:09Let's draw them with arrows.
14:10That's probably easiest.
14:13So the air, the land, sorry, gets heated up by the sun, pushing the air up.
14:17You've also got that convergence pushing the air up.
14:19The air rises, it cools, and it condenses, and it generates a, that's not a great thunderstorm, but it generates a thunderstorm.
14:29Eventually, if that gets big enough, forms a cumulonimbus, you're going to get rain or hail coming out of it.
14:37Now what that does is it will cut off that updraft, so it kind of kills itself if it's not moving.
14:44So if it stays in the same place, a thunderstorm will generate, bubble up, and then kind of kill itself off by the downdrafts generated by the rain and the hail.
14:54Now that doesn't happen that often because most of the time that storm is bodily moving.
14:59So you get the updraft and the downdraft in a different position.
15:03So if that happens, you get the downdraft, say, coming down here, it hits the ground, it pushes out, and it creates, or helps to create that next storm.
15:14It pushes that out.
15:15And it depends on the way that the winds are moving high up in the atmosphere and the way that the storm is moving as to whether you get those downdrafts either cutting off or ahead of it or behind it, and you get the back building as well.
15:28So it's all to do with the mechanics of what's going on through the atmosphere because the winds are moving in different directions as you go up through the sky.
15:35So there's really interesting dynamics when it comes to thunderstorms, different types of thunderstorms, what triggers them, what creates the next one, and where they form in relation to that first one as well.
15:46So it's really quite interesting.
15:48I've kind of covered that before a little bit on the deep dive, but yeah, a little bit there about the dynamics of thunderstorms.
15:55And you can really see that quite clearly yesterday with that.
15:59There's a still of that image again there.
16:01So these thunderstorms here just generating that line, that outflow, because it's flowing out from that center within there.
16:09I could probably draw on here, can I?
16:11Yeah, so you've got an outflow coming from this thunderstorm, and that is sparking this whole arc of extra cumulus probably at this stage.
16:22It's cumulus bubbling up later in the day across the northwest, and there's a very similar one in here.
16:26It's quite a faint line, but just coming out from this front line of thunderstorms, there's another very faint one there.
16:31And if you play through the sequence, you can just see that moving out and expanding out from that.
16:36That's really quite interesting.
16:38I have to say a huge, huge thank you to Dan Holley.
16:40Dan Holley is one of our deputy chief meteorologists.
16:43He was on yesterday.
16:44He was studying all of this.
16:45I had a long chat with him this morning.
16:47He pointed these out to me.
16:48He's a very, very knowledgeable chap.
16:51Used to be on Anglia TV.
16:53And yeah, not only that, he's also very, very good at this kind of in-depth meteorology.
16:59He was on the case today.
17:01So a big thank you to Dan Holley for pointing that out.
17:04But he also spotted, or he was also kind of briefing us yesterday morning.
17:09And this was part of his weather brief yesterday morning, highlighting the different areas within the showers yesterday.
17:17So let's just play this back again.
17:21If we go through this, there's kind of three areas at work here yesterday.
17:25There's the zone where, in here, let me draw on it.
17:34Yeah, there's the zone in here.
17:35Let's restart that.
17:36This zone here, where you've got all the active thunderstorms.
17:40Then we had a few down here and a few, you know, a few lumpy looking clouds up here into southwest Scotland.
17:47But that was where all the action was.
17:49And there were some here and here.
17:51But this image is the three different zones cut through the atmosphere.
17:59So these are, these are teffigrams, teffigrams, whatever, skew teas, as I think they're called in the United States, showing the three different areas.
18:07So this is basically a slice through the atmosphere.
18:10One for south of Stingland, one for the Midlands, Wales, and one for south of Scotland, slash East Anglia.
18:15And what they're basically showing is the three different regimes.
18:18Now, this is in the scent going up through the atmosphere.
18:21The dark, the black solid line is the actual temperature of the air as you're going up through the sky.
18:30And this dotted line here is basically a reflection of how much moisture there is in the atmosphere.
18:35So the closer that black line is to the dotted line, then the more saturated the air is.
18:42And if they're right next to each other, they're running alongside each other, then you've got cloud, basically, because the air is saturated.
18:46What we've got here in that southwest Scotland one is as you go up through the atmosphere, there's a dry zone.
18:54So the, the dotted line is moving away from the solid line.
18:56So there's a dry zone higher up here in that southwestern Scotland area, which is one of the reasons we didn't see the thunderstorms here,
19:04because it was quite a bit drier higher up.
19:06In the southwest England one, there's also that drier zone as well.
19:10And also in here, notice this red area is a bit smaller.
19:13There isn't the potential.
19:14That red area is what we call cape, how much energy there is available to provide thunderstorms.
19:20And notice this middle one, that's where that red area is both largest, the most amount of potential energy from the storm.
19:28And it's also where the air all the way up through the atmosphere is, is, is more moist.
19:33It's closer.
19:34The dotted line is closer to the black line.
19:36So it's more moist.
19:37So you had the potential for moisture.
19:38You had a lot of energy.
19:39And that's why we saw in that zone, more thunderstorms, more powerful thunderstorms and quite a lot of hail as well.
19:46I showed you that picture earlier from, from Johnny Hammond of the, of the hail, quite a lot more potential for hail.
19:52Interestingly, these down at the bottom are the holograms that shows the wind direction as you're going up through the atmosphere.
19:58And that's what I talked about earlier with the wind shear.
20:01You need a bit of wind shear.
20:03Otherwise, the, the, if the winds are the same all the way up, then the, the, um, storm doesn't move.
20:09And so it cuts itself off after a while.
20:11And actually the, the wind shear wasn't that significant in the Midlands and Wales, just enough, obviously, to help that back building because it was being helped by the convergence line as well.
20:21The greatest wind shear was down across the southwest, which is where we did see some late showers.
20:26But of course we had that layer of cloud initially, which to help to suppress, we've got the drier zone and notice there just isn't the same amount of energy.
20:32The potential energy just isn't there either for that one.
20:35This one, you've got more potential energy across Scotland, but okay, the, the air is just too dry at those medium and upper, upper level.
20:42So you're going to get some, we've got some little showers, if you like, but just didn't have that moisture and the ones or two that we did see just kind of died of death across parts of Cambridgeshire.
20:52So really interesting day yesterday of weather, lots to talk about, lots to examine just from those, uh, thunderstorms that we saw, uh, across parts of Wales and southwest England and the Midlands in particular.
21:05So it was a really interesting day right now, as I speak, there are more developing.
21:09There are a few from the storms, but it's not expected to be as intense as the ones we saw yesterday.
21:14Obviously, if you get one today and you didn't get one yesterday, then to you, it'll be way more intense.
21:18But the storms today are notched down.
21:21The air is a little bit drier.
21:23We're not seeing the same amount of potential energy in the atmosphere as we had yesterday, but there could still be some lively downpours around.
21:30But yeah, really interesting.
21:31I just want to show that again, that one, that warning area and just how accurate that warning area was
21:38for those thunderstorms.
21:39They're very hit and miss as those storms move through.
21:42But really, really, you know, pretty, pretty accurate weather forecast there from the guys upstairs in the operations centre, uh, from Sunday to issue that warning area for, for Monday afternoon.
21:51One other really interesting factor that another Dan from the operations centre, Dan Harris, spotted yesterday afternoon.
21:59This is the temperature profile for Blackpool yesterday.
22:04It's the temperature and the wind profile for Blackpool.
22:08Actually, Blackpool, we think, had its second warmest May day on record yesterday and the highest temperature recorded at Blackpool since, uh, I think it was September 2023, which is this green line here.
22:21That's the temperature, uh, scale up to 27 degrees.
22:25And I think it was 27.2.
22:26The warmest, as I say, the warmest, um, day recorded in Blackpool since September 2023.
22:33It was a really warm day, but I'm going to show you what happened with the wind.
22:38This white line is the wind.
22:40Now, that's not wind speed.
22:42That is the wind direction.
22:43So, the direction, the degree is going across here.
22:45So, basically, you're going from, um, like an easterly or a southeasterly wind down here up to, uh, to, to, um, 270 would be a westerly.
22:5890 would be an easterly.
22:59270 would be a westerly.
23:00180 would be a southerly.
23:01So, it's kind of a southeasterly, well, it's more of a, yeah, yeah, east-southeasterly for most of the morning and the temperatures were building.
23:09And then look at that.
23:10You get a big switch in the wind direction.
23:12The wind basically switches from an easterly to a westerly and that's because the sea breeze kicks in.
23:18So, you know, the temperature's going to drop off when you get the wind switching direction.
23:23That sea breeze kicks in.
23:24The temperature gets so much over land that the wind will switch direction and that will cut off the temperature.
23:29So, the temperature's building all morning, the wind switches direction, that temperature drops right back down.
23:34So, instead of being 25, it drops back down at around about 12 o'clock.
23:38If I play, actually, we can do a closer zoom in on that.
23:41So, there we go.
23:42That's a better, better shot.
23:43There's that temperature dropping down as the wind switches direction.
23:47And then something interesting happens at 1 o'clock.
23:49For some reason, the sea breeze switches off.
23:53And that's probably to do with mixing inland.
23:55So, sea breezes kick in when the land gets much warmer.
23:58So, something to do with the mixing, perhaps that convection, the showers getting closer and the air getting more mixed.
24:04The sea breeze gets cut off and you get back to that standard direction where the wind's coming from the east or southeast.
24:12That gets cut off.
24:13And look at the temperature.
24:14That jumps up again through the afternoon.
24:16So, really unusual to see that sea breeze kicking in just for an hour or so.
24:19Then it drops off.
24:20The temperature drops off.
24:21And then it picks up again.
24:22And that symbiotic relationship of how the temperature jumps up when the breeze changes.
24:28So, I thought that was one more really fascinating thing.
24:30Again, that was Dan Harris picking that one out.
24:31So, all the Dan's in the operation centre, all our senior meteorologists were on the ball yesterday, spotting really interesting, fascinating stuff about the weather.
24:42Okay, that was a quick look back at yesterday.
24:43Shall we have a look at what's going on in the future?
24:47Yeah, well, it's not that exciting.
24:49Across the UK, basically, we've got high pressure.
24:52The high pressure is coming back.
24:54We've seen high pressure throughout spring.
24:56It's why it's been so dry.
24:57It's why it's been so sunny.
24:58This little low, that's what mixed things up a little bit, brought a bit of moisture, brought the fun and the storms, brought a lot more cloud across the southwest.
25:05But the high is going to win out again.
25:07And if we just zoom out a little bit, we can see why.
25:11Look at what the jet stream is doing.
25:12Down here, wiggling like that.
25:14And if we move to maybe Wednesday, it shows this.
25:17Look at that.
25:17That is a classic omega block.
25:22You've got this loop here, loop here, loop here.
25:25Low pressure, flanking high pressure.
25:27This pattern of the jet stream is called an omega block because that looks like a capital, the capital letter, Greek letter, omega.
25:35So you've got this omega block and it's sticking around.
25:37And under this upper ridge around the high pressure here, there's a ridge at the surface, high pressure at the surface.
25:44And it's really hard to shift this blocked weather pattern.
25:46So all the lows just swirl out here or out here.
25:50And we've got this chunky area of high pressure sitting over the UK.
25:54And that is likely to continue, as I say, as we go through the next several days.
26:00The high pressure is still there, even as we fast forward to Thursday, Friday, high pressure just meandering around to the north of the UK.
26:10So with high pressure here, what is that going to mean?
26:14Well, it is going to mean that the winds are going to be coming in around the high pressure clockwise.
26:21So that's going to draw down cooler air, yes, but also a lot of moisture in and around the North Sea.
26:26So we are going to see those eastern areas plagued by mist and low cloud.
26:30Now, ha, fret, whatever you want to call it, it's a fickle mist, just hard to pin down.
26:36Probably one of the hardest things for meteorologists to forecast because it's quite low level and it really is a fickle mist, just hard to pick out the detail with this mist and low cloud.
26:46So it's one of the things that we'll be keeping a very close eye on, just exactly how much of this ha and fret affects the coast over the next few days.
26:54But eastern areas are going to be susceptible to that.
26:56But for the rest of us, high pressure is going to bring a lot of fine and sunny weather over the next few days.
27:02But it will have an impact on the temperatures.
27:05So today we're getting into the mid-20s.
27:07Tomorrow in the south, notice the warmth has just shifted down.
27:11So the warmth is down across South Wales, Southern England.
27:13Could still get 23, 24, so still well above average.
27:16But look at these temperatures on the east coast, 14, 15 degrees, and it could get even lower.
27:21Again, it will depend exactly on the wind speed, but these temperatures here suppressed elsewhere.
27:25Elsewhere, it's also going to turn a little cooler.
27:28It's not going to be as warm.
27:29I mean, still we're likely to get over 20 Celsius in the south.
27:32And again, western Scotland always favoured in this kind of wind direction, 20, 21 degrees likely here.
27:37That's well above average too.
27:39So west is best in terms of temperature.
27:41Those eastern areas are going to be cooler for sure.
27:44And at times they're also going to be cloudier as well as that feed comes in.
27:48Now, a subtle shift in the high will just change the wind direction by 5, 10 degrees,
27:52and that could have a big impact on where it stays cloudy on the east coast.
27:56So, yeah, it's one of those ones where your weather apps are not really going to nail it in those eastern areas.
28:02For many places, it'll just say fine and sunny, and that will be right.
28:05But in the east, it's going to come up with clouds.
28:07It's not going to come up with clouds.
28:08So, yeah, not really a week if you're on the east coast to be relying too heavily on your weather apps.
28:14Always check out your local forecast or your human-induced forecast.
28:19Best way to do that is to subscribe to our YouTube channel, right?
28:21And then you get, you know, us telling you what the weather's going to be.
28:24But, yeah, certainly for days ahead, it's going to be tricky to pin down that cloud on the east coast,
28:29and especially as we go into the weekend.
28:31But generally speaking, high pressure, a lot of dry weather, some warmth in the sunshine,
28:36but it will get generally a little cooler, and that east coast, always cooler.
28:40Temperature in the North Sea at the moment, about 10 degrees, so that's why it's going to be chilly.
28:44If you've got the wind coming in here, then, you know, you're going to be lucky,
28:48certainly right on the coast, you're going to be lucky to get much above that 11, 12 maybe at best.
28:53That cloud might be thick enough at times for a little bit of drizzle,
28:57but generally speaking, it's just going to be a bit cloudy,
29:00and it should burn back to the coast a lot of the time.
29:03Now, any sign of anything else on the horizon?
29:08Well, yeah, there kind of is, actually.
29:10Looking further ahead, there are some signs of a change.
29:16This is the weather pattern projection going forward through the days ahead,
29:22and, yeah, a lot of red on the chart, blocked red, high pressure,
29:26dominating for the next several days, even into the weekend,
29:30and even into the early part of next week.
29:31But notice this, you're getting the steps, the steps of blue doom start to gather.
29:37Well, many people are after some rain, right?
29:39So it's not the steps of blue doom, it's the steps of hope, maybe, if you're after rain,
29:42because these blue colours are more unsettled weather patterns,
29:46generally speaking, more low-pressure, dominated weather patterns,
29:50and they become more and more likely as we get towards particularly the back end of next week,
29:56and the following weekend, Monday the 26th, that's a bank holiday.
30:00So, yeah, that next weekend, it's not given, but, you know, by the time we get to there,
30:06it's 60-40 in terms of the more unsettled patterns compared to the more settled weather patterns.
30:12Not going to go into too much detail about this,
30:14because Aidan will have much more on this in the 10-day trend tomorrow,
30:18so another good reason to subscribe, and then you won't miss the 10-day trend tomorrow.
30:23Aidan will be looking into that in more detail, no doubt.
30:25But, yeah, there is a signal there, and it's been in the models for the past few runs now as well,
30:31that things are more likely to turn more unsettled as we head towards the end of the month,
30:36which is good news.
30:37If you are after rain, it has been an exceptionally dry spring,
30:41along with a very sunny spring as well.
30:43Again, lots more to come in those stats in the coming week,
30:46because it has been a remarkable season overall.
30:51A couple of things I wanted to point out.
30:54The Met Office blog, if you're interested in what I was talking about earlier,
30:57lightning and thunderstorms, we issued a blog yesterday about Lila,
31:01which is our lightning detection service.
31:04Lila stands for Lightning Electromagnetic Emission Location by Arrival Time.
31:09Now, that's how we measure lightning.
31:11There's basically 10 sensors across Europe,
31:15and the lightning's picked up in very low frequency as it bounces off the ionosphere,
31:19and then they use co-location to really determine where those lightning strikes were.
31:24It's state of the art.
31:26And, yeah, if you're interested in that, check out the Met Office blog.
31:28We'll try and put a link in the chat.
31:30And there's another blog being published today about Mental Health Awareness Week
31:33and how the weather can impact your mental health as well.
31:37So check those two blogs out.
31:39One more plug.
31:40Well, maybe two more plugs.
31:42Weather Studio Live.
31:43It's Aidan and I on Friday.
31:45So if you've got any questions for that, put it in the chat.
31:48And don't forget we're on WhatsApp.
31:51So if you haven't joined our WhatsApp community,
31:54you can go and find the Met Office on WhatsApp as well.
31:57So, yeah, plenty to get your teeth into.
31:59But, yeah, thank you for watching.
32:00Hope you've enjoyed this week's deep dive.
32:03Let us know in the comments if you have got anything to add.
32:07And I'm going to say who's on next week.
32:09I'm not sure who's around next week.
32:11But Aidan will be doing the 10-day trend tomorrow.
32:13So you can check him out on that.
32:15And he'll give you more in that run-up to the bank holiday weekend.
32:18But thank you very much for watching and I'll see you again soon.