AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network on May 12 to discuss AccuWeather's tornado forecast for 2025.
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00:00Joining me right now is AccuWeather lead, long-range expert, meteorologist Paul Passlach.
00:05Paul, before we get into the forecast, the severe weather forecast and the tornado forecast,
00:09as we go through the rest of the season, let's take a look at what has happened.
00:14And when we take a look at this graph, anything that surprised you that what has happened so far this year?
00:21We've had a lot of tornadoes.
00:23We have, and a lot of it came through March and early April.
00:27That series of storms that hit really pumped up the numbers as far as the tornado numbers go.
00:33And then we went through a leveling period as we got into later April and early May.
00:38And so, you know, that happens.
00:40You get into these, you know, periods where you're on a rise and then you're down.
00:44And this looks very similar to 2017, nearly 700 tornadoes at this time, this date, for that year as well.
00:52So we're looking at that year closely above the average still, but starting to level off a little bit.
00:57We do think it's going to start picking up again later May and June.
01:01Let's take a look at the numbers that you and the long-range forecast team issued weeks ago, Paul.
01:07Of course, we have the forecast in red 2025 and we compare it to the historical average.
01:13And, of course, we want to look back to last year as well.
01:16Yeah, you look at the numbers here.
01:17We have not changed this, Bernie.
01:19This is the same graphic we've had out for a while now.
01:22We are expecting a pickup here in June.
01:24We think several cold fronts coming through.
01:27The number is going to be just near to slightly above on the average with 175, 250 in the range.
01:33July comes down a bit.
01:34But if you look at last year, 2024, 221 tornadoes, some of that coming from Barrow that produced over 60 tornadoes.
01:41We're going a little bit less this year, near close to average there and near average in August as well.
01:46We'll watch the tropical situation.
01:48But at this point, there could be some lulls and that will keep the tornado count down a little bit.
01:53Once again, Paul, when we take a look at the area you've defined, it's a little east, that red area, for the highest severe weather risk.
02:03It's a little farther east than the central plains.
02:06It's more in that mid-south into the Midwest.
02:09This will be a developing situation going into the summer because currently we still have a pattern that favors anywhere from Tornado Alley to the Mississippi Valley of getting hit because of the energy that continues to come off the west coast, move across the rocky.
02:24So expect a little bit of action early next week, early to mid next week.
02:28And then as high pressure builds in the southwest in June, that forces things farther east, more moisture coming out of the Gulf, and that will set up the central Gulf states up through the Midwest.
02:38I do think the east will get into action in June as well.
02:41And then everything starts to trend a little bit farther east as we get into mid-summer.
02:45The monsoon may pick up a little bit as we get into July and August, and that could also produce some tornadoes in the Four Corners region.
02:52Really quickly, let's talk about the derecho risk, Paul.
02:55Yeah, the ratio risk, more in June and July.
02:59That's typical.
03:01We're going to see more action coming over that area of high pressure.
03:04We said we'll build in the southwest, come over the top through the northern plains, the Midwest, and down into the western Ohio Valley.
03:11We feel those disturbances.
03:12It could be one or two of those events, and these produce strong damaging winds.
03:17Not a lot of rainfall, but large hail as well in their past.
03:20Minneapolis, Chicago, Des Moines, a couple of places that you'll have to watch as we get into June and July.
03:26AccuWeather Lee, long-range expert, meteorologist Paul Pasolak.
03:29Paul, thanks for breaking it down.