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00:00Ah, to the starting gates they go in the early line as we wind down our number two.
00:05It's Joe O'Neary down the right side of Mark Zinno helping us out with some information,
00:08which usually includes the NFL draft, some Major League Baseball talk, some NDA action,
00:12but also now, which includes horse racing action.
00:15So, Mark, I'll start with you here first.
00:17Are we big on the Kentucky Derby?
00:18Do we handicap the Kentucky Derby?
00:20What are our thoughts on the Kentucky Derby?
00:23We do.
00:24I enjoy a good triple crown race here.
00:27I spent yesterday watching a whole lot of YouTube clips on the horses in this race that I really like
00:34and the ones that I think that have a real legitimate chance to win this thing here.
00:38And I have decided on a winner.
00:39I don't know if you want me to tell it to everybody now or how you want to set this up here.
00:43Slow play it.
00:43I've decided on, okay, well, you want me to slow play it?
00:46But I would tell you this much.
00:48There is a reason why the favorite is the favorite in this race.
00:51And it's very understandable that journalism is the favorite.
00:57When you look at the races that this horse runs, they're very clean.
01:00They stick to the same pattern.
01:02And this is a horse that knows how to pace well.
01:04The biggest question I have in journalism really is how will he close down the stretch
01:09when you go from a mile and a 16th to a mile and a quarter and what the difference is in that race.
01:14And I will tell you that the race, the horse that I have picked, and this is kind of a wild card here
01:20for a lot of different reasons, but I'm going with the 17 horse Sandman in this race.
01:26Now, Sandman has run, you know, eight races in his career.
01:31And if you look at the three-year-old races that he's run in the last year,
01:35he's won two of them, finished second and third in the other.
01:39Here's the thing.
01:40Sandman has had very erratic races.
01:42He's had two bad breaks from the gate, and in another one, he just kind of, you know,
01:47was stalked in the rear too long and didn't make a quick enough move.
01:52But this horse, to me, has the best closing speed down the stretch.
01:56If you watch Sandman races, you'll see when they get around that final turn
02:00and they get to the top of the stretch, two things happen.
02:03The jockey takes them wide, and once he takes them wide and the horse has got room to run,
02:07it's the kind of speed, Joe, that you can see.
02:10You can see it's almost like when you play a video game and you hit the nitro burst
02:13on those car racing games and the car shoots forward.
02:16Sandman has that gear.
02:18In the races that Sandman finished second and third, if you look at it throughout his career,
02:22it was a bad break, and when they got into the stretch, the horse was moving and closing.
02:27It ran out of track because it was only a mile and a 16th.
02:29When you move this to a mile and a quarter, that horse with the extra three-sixteenths of a mile
02:34is going to have the extra distance it needs to close the gap and sprint past anybody in front of him.
02:39I would box Xacta, Sandman and Journalism.
02:44I think they finished 1-2 in this race here.
02:47Journalism is going to run a really clean race.
02:49Sandman, I think as long as he breaks clean and stays in good position,
02:55and Sandman is going to just linger back.
02:58With a 20-horse field, it wouldn't shock me to see him around 8th, 9th, or 10th
03:01for a better part of this race.
03:03The question is, can he get clear where he needs to and find the space to run?
03:06You look at a lot of these other races that Sandman ran, they're all five- and six-horse races.
03:11The field is a lot open, and he's only run in one grade one race.
03:16That was the Arkansas Derby that he won.
03:19So it's going to be very interesting to see the trip that he has, if he can do it.
03:22Rodriguez is a speed horse.
03:24A lot of people like him.
03:25I think he's going to fade when it comes to the extra three-sixteenths of a mile.
03:29The rest of them, when you get to start getting into double digits, are ones that I really don't like as much.
03:33But give me Sandman here to win.
03:35Give me a box exact of Sandman journalism.
03:38And even if you find another horse you like, you can box trifecta them.
03:41But I think, you know, you're talking about journalism and Sandman being in two of the top three spots.
03:47Post position is everything for Sandman there with Cass as well.
03:52And, of course, you got the Ortiz brothers on top there.
03:55But, to me, it's all about the pace in this race.
03:58You are going to have some horses that are going to come out flying.
04:04And if the pace is too much, that's the problem is that if it's too fast, you're not going to give guys from behind an opportunity.
04:12So that's the other problem.
04:13Well, it's interesting.
04:15I mean, again, one of the races, and I forget which one it was.
04:17Let me just go back and look real quick.
04:19I think it was the, I want to say it was the Southwest Stakes or the Rebel Stakes earlier this year.
04:26The two horses that got out to the lead started so fast.
04:30I mean, they ran a half mile in 45 and 2.
04:32I mean, they were flying the whole way.
04:34Still in the stretch, Sandman closed within second.
04:38And had he had another 16th of a mile, he wins the race.
04:42Again, look for him to linger back.
04:44I think the actual post position at 17 helps Sandman.
04:47Sandman, once he breaks, he doesn't have to rush to the rail.
04:50He's not, it's not where he needs to be.
04:52As long as he stays in the back of the pack, he can coast easy.
04:55The first furlong, two furlongs, get himself in position for the backstretch run.
04:59And you'll see when they get to the end of the backstretch, as soon as they start that final turn,
05:03you'll see Ortiz nod him.
05:05He'll kick into another gear.
05:07Once he hits the top of the stretch, it's go time for Sandman.
05:09That was the Arkansas Derby, by the way.
05:11The only thing that could keep Sandman, by the way, the only thing that could keep Sandman out
05:14is if they prank call the paddock before the race.
05:16It's completely throwable.
05:17Thank you, Mark Zino, for joining us today.
05:19A lot of fun, as always.
05:21We'll see you again soon, hour number three, up next.