On "Forbes Newsroom," Don Clemmer, a writer and former staffer with the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, discussed the life and legacy of Pope Francis, what's next for the Vatican, and who might become the new leader of the Catholic Church.
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00:00Hi, everyone. I'm Maggie McGrath, senior editor at Forbes. Pope Francis died on Monday at the
00:09age of 88. His passing ushers in a period of mourning for the world's 1.4 billion Catholics.
00:17It also brings in so many questions about who will be the next pope. Joining us to answer this
00:24question and to tell us all about the process of selecting a new pope is Don Klemmer. He is a
00:30writer and former staffer with the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. Don, thank you so much for
00:35being here. Thank you, Maggie. Thank you for having me. So I know the betting markets are going wild,
00:41but before we talk about succession in the papal sense, I would love to just get your thoughts on
00:47Pope Francis and his legacy. What, in your view, in your mind, will stand out about his years as pope?
00:54Well, Pope Francis was a source of tremendous renewal. He kind of invited the church to
01:01return to its roots in the gospel. When he gave the little stump speech that they all kind of give as
01:09they're discerning together, well, one, he only used three minutes of his allotted five minutes,
01:15which endeared him a lot to the other cardinals. But he used the image of, we hear about Jesus
01:21knocking on the door of the human heart, but we always assume he's knocking from the outside.
01:27He used the image of, like, Jesus wants to get out in the world and transform it. And that, I really
01:32think you found in his pontificate, and these constant calls for a church that is more merciful,
01:39a church that accompanies people where they are in the messiness of their lives, a church that is
01:43joyful, a church that is humble. These are all kind of massive macro brushstrokes, but which have all
01:52kinds of implications for how people encounter the gospel and the church in their day-to-day lives.
02:00And of course, I think the overarching question about what happens next is how much will the
02:07Vatican and the church writ large want to continue that legacy? But that's the existential question.
02:13Let's get into the process. So practically speaking, what happens now? The funeral was
02:19announced to be on Saturday. Is there an interim pope for the time being?
02:23No. By and large, governance questions go to the College of Cardinals as a whole.
02:33Most, nearly all Vatican officials, for the time being, lose their title. Like, nobody really has a job
02:40right now. There's an official called the Camerlingo who sees to some of the matters of the transition,
02:47but really the cardinals are doing interim management right now.
02:50Is it like a presidential transition? Or when one party is leaving the White House and a new party
02:58is entering, everyone's jobs change?
03:02It will be up to the new pope to reinstate everybody or reinstate them on an interim basis,
03:11however it goes. But it's more like the succession of a monarch,
03:16in terms of the pope occupies the chair of Peter, and now the Catholic Church has entered a period
03:24called Sede Vacante. The chair is, literally, the chair is empty. And it's up to the College of
03:30Cardinals, these men who were elevated by Pope Francis himself, well, and his predecessors,
03:36who have, at the age of 80, the right to participate as an elector in the conclave. And that is very much
03:46not like a presidential election in that two-thirds plus one of that electoral body, which I think comes
03:53to like 91 votes, will determine the next leader of this religious tradition, as you noted, well north
04:00of a billion practitioners.
04:03Let's get into some of those numbers and also continuing the timeline. So the funeral is slated
04:09to be Saturday. How many days after the funeral will the College of Cardinals first meet?
04:16They'll meet pretty shortly thereafter. I don't remember what the turnaround was 20 years ago with
04:24the death of John Paul II. But once the Sede Vacante begins, it's pretty much getting down to business.
04:31They'll have probably the better part of a week of what they call general congregations, which I
04:38mentioned the open mic session earlier. It's a time where they get together and have candid discussions
04:46about challenges facing the church, challenges facing the world, what kind of leader it would
04:54take to approach that. And little by little, they kind of start to crystallize a vision of
04:59the profile that they need. It's not, nobody is openly a candidate. It's kind of like everybody's
05:07a candidate, but no one is to be openly campaigning for the job would be, you know, tasteless and
05:15ambitious and probably assign a very bad judgment given the responsibilities that await whoever they
05:21choose. And so it's, yeah, a period of heavy discernment of just so that, you know, these things
05:30so that they have some kind of focus when they finally process into the Sistine Chapel for the actual
05:36election.
05:39Now, you mentioned the age of those who vote. So there are, if my facts are correct, 252 cardinals,
05:49but not all of them have met the rules to vote. Why is there that age cutoff? Do we know?
05:55It was actually only in the last 50 or so years that Pope Paul VI, who died in 1978, put some,
06:04I think it was looking to foster turnover and kind of fresh blood in the upper echelon of the
06:10hierarchy. You could argue that one way or the other, but bishops are required to submit a letter
06:15of resignation to the Pope at the age of 75 and Cardinals lose their voting rights at the age of
06:2180. So there was a kind of an arbitrary cap of, there should be 120 electors. We're currently
06:27at 135, but you know, it, it is what it is. And, uh, but yes, they're, they're, they are the
06:35Cardinals who have, uh, the right to elect.
06:38And when we talk about these Cardinals, how many were appointed by Pope Francis himself versus his
06:45predecessors?
06:46Um, well North of three quarters of the electors were, were, uh, uh, appointed by Francis. Uh,
06:53the number of John Paul electors has dwindled down into single digits, I believe. And then
06:58Benedict has maybe 30 or so, um, of his appointees left. So it's a, it's a system where the, the,
07:09the, the former guy, uh, has shaped the body that will succeed him. Now, um, there's a lot of,
07:16you know, conversation about how, what are you pleased with the direction kind of conversation
07:22and, uh, a lot of prayer invoking the Holy spirit and, uh, the, the Cardinals it's, it's kind of them
07:30and God in there. Like they, they have a track record of doing surprising, perhaps counterintuitive
07:36things, uh, up to, and including, uh, the election of Pope Francis.
07:43I was going to ask, I know everyone kind of goes in a candidate, but those of us on the outside world
07:49do like to speculate in 2013, did anyone suspect that who we now know as Pope Francis would become
07:57Pope? Um, I have to give credit where it's due, uh, one, uh, journalist who covered the Vatican for
08:06many years, John, this, uh, then of Catholic news service, um, and his coverage only wrote one
08:14candidate profile and he had apparently very good sources. Um, I can still remember seeing the
08:20headline, which was, uh, a runner up from last time might get a fresh look or something like that.
08:25And his sources were saying, Oh, we might be looking at Bergoglio. And they, he had posited
08:31that they were saying as a backup plan or something, cause he was not a media candidate in the sense
08:37of like the, the, the names with the small card stats next. And, uh, it turned out he was the first
08:44pick, um, of, of, of a critical mass of, of cardinals going into that election. So I, so the answer,
08:51the real answer to your question is no, he was not on people's radar. Um, and it was the exception
08:57that someone had, had Bergoglio's number.
09:00Bergoglio, of course, being Francis's name before he took the name, the late Pope Francis,
09:06just for folks who haven't been reading as much as you and I have. Let's okay. And I will hedge
09:11this using a quote that you used in one of your pieces of coverage, which is that, um, there's an
09:17Italian saying that he, who enters the conclave, a Pope exits a cardinal, and that it is a fool's
09:23errand for journalists to speculate who will become Pope. So we were framing the conversation,
09:27recognizing this might be a foolhardy game, but in your view, and you've written about this,
09:32who do you see as the contenders for the papacy?
09:37I, there's a lot of conventional wisdom that says like the, the, the car, one of the cardinals
09:43from the Philippines who works in the Vatican, uh, Luis Antonio Tagle has all the makings of,
09:49I mean, he's telegenic, this very pastoral, uh, charismatic guy with, who, who was promoted to
09:56various posts by the last three Popes. So kind of like just woven into the tradition of it. He,
10:03he is someone whose name comes up a lot. Um, but that's not necessarily, that doesn't necessarily,
10:10uh, pretend that he'll come out of the conclave Pope. He could come out of it, a cardinal, um,
10:15other names, uh, that, uh, come up include, oh shoot. Uh, well, I mean, there's always the
10:22question, the questions that get tossed around are like, will the papacy ever go back to Italy?
10:27You know, should we be looking at, because they still have more cardinals than any other country?
10:32Um, there's always, uh, this persistent media narrative of, oh, could there be an American Pope,
10:39which, uh, traditionally has been dismissed as like, oh, well, you know, they're not going to give
10:45the papacy to the superpower that has everything else too. Um, although in 2013, the, the Cardinal
10:53Archbishop of Boston, Cardinal Sean O'Malley, uh, apparently was not only a media candidate. There
10:58were people prepared to, uh, to, to, uh, actually vote for him. Uh, another name that comes up a lot,
11:05uh, Cardinal Mario Grech, who heads the, uh, the Vatican's Synod office, the Synod being like
11:11the project of Francis's, uh, pontificate, this push toward encouraging dialogue and listening at
11:20every level of the Catholic church that we actually know what people are thinking and saying and like
11:24where the spirit is leading, you know, the, the entire body of Christ, as we would say. Um,
11:31so to be tapped to lead Francis's pet project is like, uh, certainly a vote of confidence and,
11:36you know, he's a, an affable charismatic guy, um, uh, who is, is like a way to not return to Italy,
11:48uh, but also return to Italy. And what I mean by that is we had 400 years of Italian popes,
11:54then we had 35 years of Northern European popes. And with Francis, they went to Latin America,
12:02but it was a guy whose family had immigrated from Italy. So it was like,
12:06they got to have it both ways. And Cardinal Grech would be that too. He's from Malta. Oh no,
12:10no, totally not an Italian pope. Uh, it's something that's emerged for me since writing that article.
12:16It's like, uh, the, the world scene is very, is very dicey. And, um, I think they'll be talking
12:23about that more than they'll be talking about, you know, internal matters. And that raises an
12:29entirely different profile, a set of experiences, you know, whether that's diplomatic or somebody
12:33who's traveled the world a lot has the, the linguistical, uh, acumen to, to, you know, uh,
12:43engage directly with leaders and communities all over the world. It's going to be a, it's going to be
12:48a tricky time for the church. I was going to ask you how much a factor geography would play
12:54into this upcoming conclave. Much has been made of Pope Francis being the first pope from Latin America
13:02and how much that has done for the church. And when we talk about some of the cardinals he has appointed,
13:09some writers have been pointing out the geographic diversity from which he has appointed
13:13these cardinals. They're really coming from all over. So does that global mindset perhaps shake up the,
13:19the considerations of the conclave? I mean, Europe's percentage of the electors as a,
13:24as I believe at a historic low and, um, yes, you can't deny that 70 plus countries,
13:33you know, represented in a, in a voting body, a relatively small voting body is going to,
13:38um, you know, have an outside effect. I think it's a desired effect. It's the continued,
13:43uh, internationalization as they call it, that's happened in the last 60 years of the church
13:49under the last several popes and, um, geography will and won't factor in. Like, I don't think
13:58anybody's going to arbitrarily say like, oh, Francis brought the, you know, the cutting edge ideas of
14:04the church in Latin America to the whole church. We must continue that pro I think that's taking it a
14:09little literally. Um, but if somebody fits the profile, geography kind of clicks into place.
14:17Cardinal Bergoglio happened to be from Argentina and represented all of these emerging ideas that,
14:23uh, you know, their time had come, but it wasn't arbitrary. He was seen as the man in a wider sense.
14:33When we talk about these issues, Pope Francis spoke about climate change, immigration, the acceptance of
14:39LGBTQ members of the church famously saying in part, who am I to judge? That is a partial quote I should
14:45note. How much does the College of Cardinals care about continuity on these issues?
14:56The interesting thing is that Francis kind of left a lot of things in the oven that won't be done baking
15:02for years and even maybe decades after he's gone. So continuity, you can control some of it and other
15:09parts of it. It's like, you know, the, the, the avalanche coming down the mountain, like you're not
15:14going to, you know, you're not going to stop it. Um, they, they, they might go for a difference in
15:20approach. Like they might say like, well, Francis was, you know, maybe, maybe a little
15:26fast and loose with some of, some of his approach, like they could go with someone who's, you know,
15:34a little more, uh, a little more formal in his approach to his theology, but, um, who's, who,
15:44you know, just thinks that this is still a program worth pursuing. Um, they'll probably pick someone
15:51who's, uh, who's a baby boomer and that'll just bring an entirely different generational sensibility
15:56of how he perceives the world, what he sees as when different just takes for granted. And some of
16:03that would probably play in, uh, almost like, uh, I don't want to say automatically, but just kind
16:11of second nature to a new Pope. Whereas for Francis, it was very intentional to say, oh, we need to make
16:17out, you know, greater, uh, you know, Pat, we need greater pastoral care for the LGBTQ community
16:22or whatever it is. Like, um, so yeah, continuity is tricky and every, every Pope brings something new
16:32to the table. That's interesting. I have a few follow-up questions there, but I'll start with
16:37the age. You mentioned that you, you think it could be a baby boomer Pope, which means that if it is a
16:41baby boomer Pope, we could have a papacy that goes 20 plus years. Is that something that the College of
16:48Cardinals wants, or do they prefer shorter tenures? It's, it's, uh, it's tricky. I mean, they, they
16:55elected a 78 year old after the 26 year pontificate of John Paul II. Um, and then he, you know, resigns,
17:04Benedict XVI resigns eight years later. He says he's too old and frail and they say, okay, we'll
17:08elect a new guy, Pope Francis, who's 76. But you know, they opted for another short, uh, comparably short,
17:16uh, time it's, it's, it's very tricky to pin down. People are living longer. If you elect somebody
17:24who's 70 and still get a 25 year pontificate, John Paul was 58 when they elected him. Um,
17:33you know, it's, it's that double-edged sword of is, is he going to, is he going to live forever or is he
17:38young and vital enough to really, you know, take charge and do the job. So I, I say baby boomer
17:43boomer with the understanding that, you know, the, the oldest boomers, uh, aren't even eligible to vote
17:49in the conclave. Um, but that, uh, but we're going to see a, a, a generational shift for that very reason.
17:58Uh, nonetheless, my other age question was going to be on the other end of the spectrum.
18:04Um, the right wing favors Robert Sarah, who is 79. So would the conclave look at someone who is 79,
18:12right on the edge of being in the conclave as a genuinely strong candidate?
18:19It would, it would be a question of is, does this person fit the profile? Um, so it could be,
18:25it could be arbitrary. And again, again, a 79 year old Pope could, could serve for a decade. So I,
18:31I don't think it's a disqualifier by itself, but they would recognize like,
18:36he's old and, and, you know, oh, he seems too old can be a, can be disqualifying if somebody's
18:42otherwise kind of looking good. Um, and the other thing I would throw in is that, um,
18:48going back to the other end of the spectrum is, uh, if they look to the world situation and say,
18:55this is, this is getting really choppy, they might see the benefit of electing a young guy with the
19:01understanding that they're going to get stability and don't have to come back and engage in this
19:07very delicate process in another five or 10 years. If they think, well, no, we need, we need youth.
19:13We need vitality. We need continuity. That's how, that's how the church weathers a chapter as it were.
19:20You mentioned in one of your earlier answers that Pope Francis put forth a number of things
19:27that are still in the oven and could take a long time to emerge fully baked. I would argue that one
19:33of those is the, are the papal commissions to study the question of whether or not women can be deacons.
19:39He commissioned two, um, groups to study the history and theology. So do we know if this, uh, line of
19:49research will continue? Um, I, I mean, a new Pope could theoretically stop something in its tracks
19:57or let it run its course and just kind of sit on it. Um, uh, beyond the commission on, on deacons,
20:06Francis did a great deal to promote women in the church, especially like into the power structure
20:11of the Vatican. You could argue kind of Swiss cheese them through the, the, the bureaucracy,
20:16um, that will continue. And that I think reflects how, uh, Francis was a big believer in culture
20:25shifts. Like he knew if he took on hot button issues head on that, it would almost create too
20:30much scar tissue for, for the church to really deal with that change. Um, no, he, it, yeah,
20:36it's back to the oven metaphor. When these things are baked, they're the sort of things that we just
20:41kind of look around and say, Oh yeah, that, that changed. Uh, of course it changed. And, and that's,
20:48you know, why his program of synodality is also one of those things that's still in the oven,
20:52that the church engage in continual dialogue and discernment about, you know, what the issues are,
20:58where the Holy spirit is leading the church and, um, you know, just what's, uh, you know,
21:05where the spirit's leading us and where it's not, I guess, would be, would be the distinction.
21:11Another one of the issues that has come up in the last few days, uh, the survivors network
21:15for those abused by priests has called for the next Pope to have no history of covering up sexual
21:21abuse and to also call for a zero tolerance policy. Is there any Cardinal who fits those parameters
21:28in your view? I don't think I could definitively rule anybody out or in, uh, just having not look
21:39closely at the, the, those records. Um, but I, I think it, the, the thing that comes to mind was, uh,
21:48during the 2013 election, uh, one of the U S Cardinals noted, um, that the new Pope has to be free.
21:57In the sense of like, his decisions are his own. Um, but I, but I got the sense in that,
22:05that he, it was also a reference to past decisions like that, that, that would be something that would
22:11impede his governance greatly and, and, and be devastating to the, the credibility of, of the
22:18church. And I mean, we've lived with, um, that incredible fallout and the incredible harm that was done.
22:26And, um, that has touched the church at the highest levels of its governance and, and, and rightly so.
22:36Earlier in this conversation, I think I mentioned the betting markets. I checked poly market before we
22:40started, which was not a factor the last time, uh, there was a conclave, but Pietro Parolin is at 30%
22:48in the American betting markets. Uh, Luis Antonio Tagle, Tagle, the, um, Filipino Cardinal, he's at,
22:55uh, 24%. And Matteo Zuppi, I think one of those Italian contenders is at 10%. And no new Pope in 2025
23:04had less than 1%, but nonetheless still had some betting money. It's a little wild to talk about
23:09betting markets when we talk about, you know, something as centuries old as the process for
23:15choosing a new Pope. But Don, what do you make of the fact that the betting markets are weighing in?
23:20And, and what do you make of those odds? I, I, I mean, people are fascinated by,
23:25by the Catholic church as an institution. It's like Americans in the, the, the British royal family,
23:31you know, in some ways. Uh, and, and it, and, and the Pope is such a visible, I mean, figurehead in
23:38the best sense of, of, of a, of a global religious tradition. Uh, so I mean, human nature being what it
23:46is, you have people wonder, people speculate, and those are, those are interesting names. I mean,
23:50that two of them are Italians and the, that hasn't happened in over for well over 40 years. Uh,
23:58Paralene was brought into the Vatican early. Uh, he's a diplomat, uh, was a, a favorite of Pope Francis.
24:05He's only 70 years old, uh, and, uh, really kind of oversaw a restoration of the Vatican's diplomatic
24:15mojo, if you will, that they, they, they became more of an emphasis again and, uh, engaged in some,
24:23you know, pretty dicey and ambitious projects like the, the agreement with China and, uh,
24:28um, bridging a bit, a little bit of a thought between the U S and Cuba during the, the later
24:34Obama years. So that, um, so he's, he's, and he's been in the Vatican for all of Francis's tenure. So
24:42that again, a diplomat could be a way forward. Uh, Matteo Zupi, uh, one piece I read, I mean, he's,
24:51he's a diocesan archbishop, but one piece I read on him was that he has written favorably of both,
24:58outreach to the LGBTQ community and the Latin mass. And the, the argument being that he could,
25:04you know, be some kind of bridge figure who kind of holds all of the complexity of this,
25:10you know, vast tradition in himself. And that's ultimately the Pope's job is to be, uh, a ministry
25:16of unity that, you know, every Bishop on the planet could say, I'm in communion with the Bishop of Rome.
25:21And therefore I'm a Catholic Bishop. Like that is the job. And the Pope then carrying the Catholic
25:28tradition into each moment in history and, uh, uh, kind of mediating that encounter.
25:35That's an interesting perspective. I have one final question for you. We've used the word
25:41conclave lowercase C, but of course, conclave uppercase C was an Academy award-winning film.
25:48For folks who have seen the movie may not have grown up in the Catholic faith
25:52and are now following the headlines. How much of that movie is accurate and will be unfolding in
25:59the coming days? And, or how careful should people be if they watch it tonight? And should they not
26:04assume that what they watched on screen is what's going to happen in, in Rome soon?
26:10Um, definitely some oversimplifications and maybe some amping up of the palace intrigue. Uh, I enjoyed
26:17the movie perfectly and I see we're both wearing our cardinalatial red today. And, uh, it, there were
26:25elements of it that were almost a little chilling as like a future history in terms of, um, the way they
26:31talked about the recently deceased Pope suggested that he was a man with, of wisdom who believed in
26:36complexity of issues and it just, just, you know, moved the church forward. Um, but you know, are
26:44there going to be rather hard hitting conversations behind the scenes? Sure. Like they, they, they have
26:50a big decision ahead of them and these are, these are real people for better or worse. And, uh, and they,
26:58they've got, they've got a job to do. Um, yeah. Was it oversimplified? Sure. But, um,
27:06but a fascinating portrayal. I lied. That was my penultimate question. My final question is,
27:12do we know how long the conclave will last? Is there a date by which we can expect to for sure
27:18have a decision? Uh, that would be another one of those fools errands. Uh, you, you had conclaves in
27:25the 20th century go from as few as three rounds of balloting. So after every round they burn the
27:31ballots and their smoke and, uh, to like eight or nine, I believe in the 1958, uh, conclave where
27:37they really had no idea where to go after Pius the 12th, it all worked out. Um, in the 21st century,
27:45they've lasted about two days, four rounds of voting for Benedict the 16th, five rounds of voting for
27:50Francis. That would be considered pretty fast. And I think a lot of that is owed to the fact that they
27:56do engage in serious discernment and discussion ahead of it. Um, so that they've got it crystallized
28:02in their mind. Like, okay, we know what we need to do. Come Holy Spirit, write the name down. Uh, and
28:10that's, that's key. Well, we will have to have you back once we know for sure who the College of
28:17Cardinals has elected. But in the meantime, Don Clemmer, thank you so much for joining us and
28:20breaking this down for us. We so appreciate your time. Thank you so much, Maggie.