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00:00Nuggets Clippers, this number has been moving throughout the lead-up to this game, number one,
00:06which will be in the 330 window today, and it has now found us with a new favorite in this series.
00:14It is now minus 118, coach, for the Clippers to win this series.
00:20In front of you on the TV side are your game number one odds,
00:24but you see the series price is reflective of the Clippers at minus 118.
00:30Even money on the consensus best player in the world to win a round one series
00:38where his team has home court advantage.
00:44That is not a common occurrence.
00:49Where did you land on Denver LA?
00:52Buckle up.
00:53I mean, buckle up.
00:55I mean, just think about what Kevin is saying and just look at the fact that the series spread.
00:59You know, Denver plus one and a half games is minus 180.
01:03What are the books telling you it's going seven?
01:06Yeah.
01:07It's telling you it's going seven, and it's a matter of what you trust.
01:12Now, I'm under the belief that Michael Malone is one of the ten best coaches in the world,
01:17but that doesn't mean at some point you flame out and you've got to make a change.
01:22What I've seen out of Denver the last three games leading up to the playoffs is obviously the need to win to stay out of the plan,
01:29but I saw a better and more locked and defensive team that I saw before that four-game losing streak.
01:35But then you look at the Clippers.
01:36They've won eight games in a row.
01:38Harden goes absolutely nuclear.
01:40So now, where am I at?
01:43I'm on Denver in seven.
01:44But here's why.
01:46Because of the fact that it's in Denver, I'm going to trust the best player in the world,
01:51and I'm going to go back to track record.
01:57James Harden, game sevens.
02:00Don't look it up.
02:02Just – I don't even have to go through.
02:04If I'm not mistaken, Kevin, I don't think he scored more than 21 points in a game seven in his career.
02:09And he's got some awful numbers in a game seven.
02:14To me, because it's home, it's Harden, I'm going to go with a fantastic series.
02:24Denver wins in seven.
02:25Coach, we're seeing it the same.
02:28I also am picking Denver in seven.
02:30I was – now, I did not wager on any of the series – I didn't bet the Nuggets had even money to win the series.
02:41I didn't bet Denver in exactly seven.
02:43What I wanted to bet, but I didn't think was good enough value, was Denver game one and Denver to win the series.
02:49I thought there was a – since they're a dog, I thought maybe we would get two to one.
02:52We're still – we're only seeing around plus 160.
02:54I am on Denver here today, minus two and a half points in the opener.
03:00I am fading Harden out of the gate.
03:04Maybe the gap from when they beat the Warriors to today is big enough.
03:09But Harden having a game like that will happen in this series.
03:14It's that they are almost always followed up with terrible games.
03:18This is a very, very important Harden series.
03:21If you want to kind of – Jokic versus Kawhi, it'll be close.
03:27Jokic should win.
03:28But if Kawhi is healthy, he is an elite postseason performer.
03:32The swing of this series could be Jamal Murray and James Harden.
03:37And if you like Harden to win that matchup, this could very well be Clippers in five.
03:41You could sell me on that.
03:43I ultimately think it is more of a war.
03:46I think it is less consistency from Harden.
03:49And I said there was one thing that pushed me over the edge to picking Denver to win that game seven.
03:54And it is Jamal Murray.
03:55Last year, game seven, Denver on their home court did lose.
03:59But not because of Jamal Murray and not because of Nikola Jokic.
04:01As they combined for 69 of the 90 points scored by that team.
04:05Jamal Murray might have a tough series.
04:08Chris Don is fantastic.
04:09I don't think this is a Norman Powell series, by the way.
04:12I don't think he should be playing a ton for the Clippers.
04:14We'll see how the rotation certainly works.
04:16But I think if you get to a seventh game, Jamal Murray will be great.
04:22He might struggle.
04:23He might struggle today.
04:24He's going to struggle in L.A.
04:25That's going to happen.
04:26He's going to struggle on the road to the playoffs.
04:28But at game seven, as long as Jokic gets his co-star ready to rock, which I think he will,
04:35I think they survive an advance here as a dog against the Clippers.
04:39Yeah.
04:40And I think when you look at James Harden, folks, I'm going to say this.
04:43I think this is the last opportunity for his legacy.
04:48And hear me out.
04:49This guy is 11th all time and scoring 13th in assists.
04:54But you don't classify him as a winner.
04:57If there's a game seven and he goes another dud, it will hurt his legacy more than it's already been hurt.