"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Breaking News, Selasa, (08/04/2025) dengan tema Paparan Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati di Sarasehan Ekonomi Bersama Presiden".
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00:00Thank you, Mr. President, Bismillahirrahmanirrahim, Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh,
00:24Good afternoon and best wishes for all of us, Om Swastiastu, Namo Buddhaya, Salam Kebajikan.
00:30Mr. President, respected ladies and gentlemen, the Red-White Cabinet, and all the guests we respect,
00:40I would also like to wish a happy Eid al-Fitr to all of you.
00:48We will complete the presentation of Mr. Menko on economics,
00:53which is certainly more to the APBN instrument,
00:57because this is one of the instruments in economic management,
01:01and especially from the macro side, which is highly relied on when facing shocks or upheavals.
01:09Four things that I will say,
01:11geopolitical shifts that some have been mentioned by Mr. Menko,
01:16trading rates implemented by the United States and its impact,
01:22resilience from Indonesia's economy, and how the APBN works.
01:27Ladies and gentlemen, we all understand that the world is changing dramatically.
01:33When World War II, where at that time European countries were in turmoil and had to be rebuilt,
01:40there was a common resolve, especially in Western countries, to establish global institutions,
01:49such as WTO, IMF, World Bank, in order to manage the world's economy,
01:56so that it can rebuild after World War II.
02:03Now, all of these global institutions are becoming less effective, or even ineffective,
02:11because the main shareholder, namely G7, especially the United States,
02:16is now no longer trusting the institutions created,
02:22thus creating a system that is unilateral.
02:27This rule base, which has been known since World War II, is now becoming uncertain.
02:35On the other hand, new blocks are emerging, including BRICS,
02:39and also policies that all tend to be in an uncertain situation.
02:45The intensity of competition is very sharp.
02:49Every country must have the instinct to protect its domestic.
02:53Therefore, many economic policies are inward-looking.
02:58My country first, America first, China first, Indonesia first, and so on.
03:04Because this is indeed when the external environment cannot be relied on,
03:10what must be done is to maintain national interest.
03:14And this has been said by the President, including earlier in his opening,
03:20even before Donald Trump announced the Trump Tariff, or the Liberation Day Tariff, last week.
03:30Previously, we still hoped for supply chains based on friendship.
03:35That's why the term friend-sharing and near-sharing emerged.
03:39Now, there is no longer the definition of friend.
03:43Because the United States, Canada, and Mexico,
03:47the countries that are combined in oil,
03:50are now being abandoned by the United States,
03:55and become a competition that no longer has the definition of friend or foe.
04:01This is the world we are facing.
04:04America's tariff policy poses an extraordinary risk of uncertainty.
04:10If we look at the timeline,
04:12from February 1st to April 1st,
04:16the global economic landscape has changed in two months.
04:21When President Trump issued an executive order on April 1st,
04:26saying that Canada was given a 10 percent tariff,
04:30and for energy, 25 percent,
04:33Mexico was given a 25 percent tariff, and China, 10 percent,
04:37that has changed the whole framework of friendship,
04:41which was previously taken for granted, will continue to exist.
04:45Over time, retaliation or response
04:49and additional threats to certain products emerged,
04:53such as leather and aluminum.
04:56Then, a new executive order was issued on March 4th,
05:01exactly a month ago,
05:03to increase China's tariff by 20 percent,
05:06and Canada retaliated.
05:09This timeline shows that in just one month,
05:13the world that was previously governed by a rule-based system
05:18no longer has certainty.
05:21This is one of the things we need to pay attention to.
05:25In managing the economy,
05:27we do not continue to be surprised,
05:30but at the same time, we remain vigilant.
05:33The reciprocal tariff issued by the U.S. to 60 countries
05:38describes how to calculate the tariff,
05:43which I think all economists who have studied economics
05:46cannot understand.
05:47So, this is no longer a matter of economic science.
05:51The important thing is to calculate the tariff first,
05:54because the goal is to close the deficit.
05:57There is no economic science in that.
05:59That means I don't want to depend on or buy from others
06:04more than what I can sell to others.
06:08That is purely transactional.
06:11There is no economic science.
06:14So, friends, there is an ICI here.
06:18I'm sorry, sir.
06:20The science is useless these days.
06:24Because of that, because this is pragmatic,
06:28actually when we were all appointed by President Prabowo,
06:33we were given subsidies,
06:36and the subsidies became very relevant.
06:39He said the world is now governed by realists.
06:43So, pragmatism and realism rather than theoretical ideology
06:48that has governed the world since World War II.
06:53This has become a reality much faster,
06:56and we have to respond immediately.
06:58Reciprocal tariff policy is responded by various countries,
07:02as mentioned by Mr. Menko.
07:04China, which was considered to restrain itself,
07:08actually retaliated as hard as it could.
07:11And this caused an escalation,
07:14which is why there has been a shortage in the financial market
07:17in the last two days.
07:19This is because of the second response,
07:21after the RRT reported retaliation.
07:24After the RRT reported retaliation,
07:26President Trump said on Twitter,
07:29I will increase the tariff to 50%.
07:33So, this is an escalation that is not over yet.
07:36And because this has involved the President,
07:39it will usually be very difficult for face-saving.
07:43So, this is a situation that we have to face
07:46in a very open-minded, pragmatic way,
07:50and at the same time, we have to be agile.
07:53We have to be fast, as Mr. President and Mr. Menko said.
07:57What policy can we do immediately,
07:59and can correct or use the opportunity,
08:02we have to be able to do it now.
08:04The European Union has not yet retaliated,
08:07but it is already in the package.
08:09But this is actually for the opening salvo,
08:11for renegotiation.
08:13Canada has already retaliated.
08:15So, various other countries may be more cold-headed
08:18with the approach of diplomacy and negotiation.
08:21But not necessarily the result is also pleasant.
08:24Because like Vietnam,
08:27which said a promise for 0% tariff,
08:30it is said that it is not up to par,
08:33because non-tariff barrier is also part of the negotiation.
08:39With the increase in tariffs in the United States,
08:43there is a thought or something that will be the reaction,
08:48which is the divergence of trade.
08:53This trade diversion is now being discussed around the world.
08:56Which country can be an alternative export destination,
09:01or which country can be an alternative investment place
09:06for the emergence of trade without America,
09:09or America becomes delineated,
09:11and then appears among the rest of America.
09:15Because America in the world trade plus RRT
09:18only explains about 25% of global trade.
09:22So, 75% can actually trade outside those two big countries.
09:27However, the impact of the spillover of the two countries
09:30cannot also be considered light.
09:33Indonesia's opportunity to take over,
09:35because some countries, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, China,
09:39the reciprocal rate from America is higher,
09:44which is 34, 36, 37, even 46.
09:48But we also know that there are many countries around us,
09:51or similar to us, whose tariffs are also lower.
09:54Philippines only 17%,
09:56Malaysia 24%,
09:58South Korea 25%,
10:00and India only 26%.
10:02So, in this table, we can describe what commodities
10:07that we can potentially become a new input,
10:12or we will be defeated by those whose tariffs are lower.
10:16This is what describes the importance of a situation like this,
10:19in terms of economy.
10:21The President wants to meet all stakeholders,
10:25because this is a joint war.
10:27This must be together between the government,
10:30policy makers, economic actors,
10:33and how we respond to it.
10:36Portfolio investors have a negative response to the RRT policy.
10:40Today is the first day of the opening of the stock market,
10:44and we have seen that Indonesia,
10:46in the second session, was below 8%, 7.7%.
10:50If we look at many countries whose stock price index,
10:54on April 8th compared to April 2nd,
10:56many of them have a very deep correction, up to 14%.
10:59Even what Mr. Menko said earlier,
11:01some of them can reach up to 25%.
11:05Our trading value,
11:07Mr. Indonesian Bank Governor,
11:09has also reached a few steps,
11:11even before today's opening,
11:13and alhamdulillah,
11:15we are now able to fall below 17%.
11:17However, this dynamic,
11:19such as the price of shares, trading value,
11:21or in this case, the obligation to write a letter of value,
11:23is like a pear.
11:25We are like a shock absorber.
11:28Because of the shock,
11:30this is a form of response
11:32that we may have to get used to seeing.
11:34However, this does not mean that we then
11:36shift our attention from the foundation
11:38that still has to be maintained.
11:40The high pressure in the financial market
11:42recently,
11:44is actually not a new thing.
11:46The US Treasury,
11:48whether for 2 years or 10 years,
11:50has weakened a bit because it is considered a safe haven,
11:52but the dollar index has also weakened.
11:54So, 100% confidence in the dollar
11:57has also started to decline.
11:59Meanwhile, the fixed index,
12:01i.e. volatility,
12:03has also increased,
12:05but if we compare it to the time of COVID,
12:07the increase is actually still relatively manageable.
12:09But this indicates that
12:11the atmosphere, the alarm,
12:13is starting to sound,
12:15so we also have to be careful,
12:17without panic.
12:19JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,
12:21all say that the US
12:23is likely to enter a recession,
12:25up to 60%,
12:27before it was below 50%.
12:29With an outlook like that,
12:31it is not surprising that
12:33the commodity price is declining,
12:35because later the demand will decline if there is a recession.
12:37We see that the commodity price
12:39is experiencing a correction,
12:41the oil price, especially what we see now,
12:43is at level 64-65.
12:45Our APBN uses the $80 assumption,
12:47so this means that
12:49the subsidy will be lower.
12:51Hopefully, we will still maintain it,
12:53so that our APBN will be
12:55relatively less pressure,
12:57even though our commodity value
12:59is slightly above the assumption.
13:01Meanwhile, the CPO is actually improving,
13:03this makes the country's acceptance
13:05also improve.
13:07Copper is still relatively good,
13:09nickel is experiencing a decline,
13:11and our coal is still struggling,
13:13even now it is below 100.
13:17Manufacturing activities
13:19until today are still expanding,
13:21but only slightly, at 50.3%.
13:23As Mr. Menko said earlier,
13:25Indonesia is still above 52%.
13:27This means that we are still expanding.
13:29Yesterday, we had a decline,
13:31but then we rose very quickly.
13:33This shows
13:35the resilience of the
13:37manufacturing sector in Indonesia.
13:39Indonesia's exports for agriculture
13:41in this regard,
13:43the year-on-year growth is 52%,
13:45for manufacturing, 29%.
13:47This shows that
13:49before Trump's tariff,
13:51we were doing quite well,
13:53and because of that,
13:55our trade surplus is still maintained.
13:57If we look at
13:59the trade surplus,
14:01America is the second largest,
14:03but among the first largest,
14:05which is China,
14:07America is at
14:0923 billion,
14:11and this is not much different
14:13from other destinations.
14:15If we look at this table,
14:17Indonesia actually has many alternatives.
14:19This means,
14:21as Mr. Menko said earlier,
14:23that our export destination
14:25can still be diversified,
14:27and our attachment
14:29or dependency to America
14:31is not too big
14:33compared to other countries
14:35mentioned earlier.
14:37President Prabowo
14:39has said that the
14:41economic ministers who now have to
14:43face this economic war,
14:45we in the front line
14:47have to take the initiative
14:49to do reforms and deregulation.
14:51Because this kind of shock
14:53is not the first time
14:55in our history.
14:57We experienced it in the 80s,
14:59the oil shock and war.
15:01We also faced
15:03the global economic shock
15:05in 2008-2009,
15:07and in 1997-98
15:09we faced the economic crisis.
15:11Learning from all these shocks,
15:13when the shock happened,
15:15it became an opportunity
15:17to reform
15:19and do deregulation.
15:21So, based on the instructions of Mr. President,
15:23even before Trump's
15:25Liberation Day tariff,
15:27we have been asked
15:29to formulate deregulation
15:31and make it easier
15:33as Mr. President said earlier.
15:35I would like to say to those
15:37who are in the area,
15:39and many of you from business
15:41and important,
15:43because it affects the cash flow,
15:45etc.
15:47Our cortex is getting better.
15:49This will speed up the inspection process,
15:51the weighting process,
15:53including validation
15:55from the service institutions.
15:57This will make the documentation
15:59easier,
16:01so that all the processes,
16:03including restitution,
16:05become much faster.
16:07Because this is one of the
16:09potential complaints
16:11from the USTR
16:13to Indonesia.
16:15The tax inspection
16:17will be shortened by 50%
16:19from 12 months to 6 months.
16:21And for the tax inspection
16:23which is a group
16:25for transfer pricing,
16:27which has been needed for 2 years,
16:29now it is only 10 months.
16:31For restitution,
16:33we do it much faster
16:35for the
16:37individuals below
16:39100 million rupiah,
16:41there is no inspection at all.
16:43For the others,
16:45with the cortex,
16:47we can do the restitution
16:49more automatically.
16:51This will greatly affect
16:53the cash flow
16:55of the company.
16:57We also set
16:59the valuation,
17:01and this is also included in the complaint
17:03by business owners,
17:05we will use
17:07a value-based,
17:09valid proof.
17:11So this will give more certainty.
17:13Elimination of import quotas
17:15and technical regulations,
17:17as stated by the President,
17:19will greatly help
17:21because the quotas
17:23do not give the acceptance of the country,
17:25add to the burden of transactions
17:27and create
17:29a lack of transparency.
17:31If this is eliminated,
17:33it will greatly determine
17:35the improvement of Indonesia's import-export.
17:37The provision of permits
17:39and import regulations
17:41will be simplified,
17:43based on IT and data.
17:45Also, shifting
17:47from border monitoring
17:49to post-border,
17:51with a national logistic ecosystem,
17:53where all logistic transactions
17:55are in
17:57digital technology,
17:59this will reduce
18:01the time and cost
18:03of logistics.
18:05Currently, 53 ports
18:07and 7 airports
18:09have been connected with NLE.
18:11So that
18:13all transactions are digital
18:15and much faster
18:17and more certain.
18:19We also implemented
18:21hyco x-ray.
18:23Thus, the staff
18:25do not have to see
18:27and dismantle,
18:29we can see every container
18:31without
18:33intervention from the staff.
18:35We will also harmonize
18:37policy and tax administration
18:39and financing
18:41for import and export activities.
18:45Thus, between
18:47policy in the past to the present,
18:49it will be more synergistic.
18:51This is to facilitate various
18:53restitution transactions,
18:55improvement of work process and import facilities.
18:57We also
18:59got feedback in this situation.
19:01Maybe there is a company
19:03that needs to
19:05merge acquisition faster,
19:07and usually this is prevented by policy
19:09because of tax implications.
19:11We are very open to
19:13open and see tax aspects
19:15so that
19:17companies that need to
19:19do merger acquisition
19:21can be far more agile.
19:23Because the situation must be like that.
19:25Some fiscal measures
19:27based on
19:29imputed tariff
19:31are as follows.
19:33If the improvement of tax administration
19:35and financing,
19:37from tax review,
19:39tax restitution,
19:41this is equivalent to
19:43reducing the rate to 2%.
19:45So, this is a reform
19:47that we can do in tax.
19:49It seems that only from the administrative
19:51simplification side, it will reduce the burden.
19:53So, if the business world
19:55will hit 32%,
19:57with various reforms, it can be 2% lower.
19:59Tax policy
20:01for import facilities,
20:03we will
20:05make adjustments for
20:07certain products,
20:09from 2.5% to
20:11only 0.5%.
20:13This means reducing
20:15another 2%
20:17tariff burden.
20:19So, anything that can reduce the tariff
20:21burden
20:23as long as it hasn't decreased in the US,
20:25we will try to do it.
20:27Tariff adjustment for imported products,
20:29from 5% to 10%,
20:31from 0% to 5%,
20:33this means reducing
20:35another 5% tariff burden.
20:37This is for products
20:39from the US
20:41that are included in
20:43most favored nation.
20:45For student fees,
20:47for student fees,
20:49because we often give student fees, I'm sorry.
20:51Tax for CPO,
20:53we will also make adjustments.
20:55This is also equivalent to reducing
20:57the burden up to 5%.
20:59And trade remedies,
21:01including the Minister of Trade,
21:03Minister of Finance, all ask
21:05for anti-dumping tax,
21:07safeguard balance,
21:09can be done and accelerated
21:11within 15 days.
21:13We will do it together with
21:15other countries.
21:17So, we will continue to make reforms,
21:19especially in the field of tax,
21:21tax and procedure,
21:23so that this really reduces the burden
21:25according to the President's
21:27recommendation.
21:29This is the right time
21:31for deregulation and more ambitious
21:33reforms.
21:35Many of our business friends,
21:37the media, are talking about our APBN.
21:39APBN has been
21:41one of the anchors
21:43that we deliver transparently.
21:45The position of our APBN
21:49until the end of March
21:51is now in a good situation.
21:53Yesterday, the headline seemed to say
21:55that the tax receipt
21:57experienced a contraction, etc.
21:59Why did we
22:01postpone the press conference yesterday?
22:03Because the data is still
22:05very liquid,
22:07still dynamic.
22:09Because there is Cortex,
22:11on the other hand, there is Panter,
22:13and there are also some
22:15big tax companies that
22:17do one-off restitution.
22:19So, we don't want
22:21to create a market panic,
22:23we do a presentation.
22:25If we look at
22:27March, we have turned around
22:29the tax receipt.
22:31The previous growth was
22:33minus 13 in January,
22:35February minus 4,
22:37now it's positive 9.1.
22:39Turning around seems to be
22:41getting better.
22:43We just want to say that
22:45in the last 4 years, we have seen
22:47the pattern of tax receipts,
22:49and we see the average December, January, February,
22:51and March,
22:53this year, 2025,
22:55at 179.7.
22:57Better than last year, which was 174,
22:59better than the year 2023,
23:01when the commodity boom
23:03at 167,
23:05and in 2022, of course,
23:07at 146.
23:09So, I want to assure you that
23:11the tax receipts are still on track.
23:13Because in the last month,
23:15this was the headline
23:17to make it look like
23:19APBN is not sustainable,
23:21APBN is not prudent,
23:23and this will be a mess.
23:25No. The President indeed has
23:27many programs, but all of them
23:29are designed in APBN
23:31which is still prudent and sustainable.
23:33So, this is what
23:35will be an anchor for us
23:37to say that
23:39we should not add
23:41unnecessary worries
23:43for things that are fundamentally
23:45still good.
23:47I also ask for the observers,
23:49ICs, and others to also
23:51help. For government spending,
23:53we are still on track,
23:55even though there are many big programs
23:57that the President has mentioned,
23:59we still monitor in detail.
24:01We have already done
24:0316.9 trillion,
24:05non-KL spending,
24:07including pension subsidies,
24:09there are 217.
24:11If we look at it,
24:13the percentage of our spending
24:15is not much different.
24:17Last year, because we did
24:19front-loading for voter preparation,
24:21the percentage of spending
24:23was at 17.3.
24:25But before the voter, the year was
24:2715.5, this year it is 15.3.
24:29So, it is still comparable.
24:31It is still quite good.
24:33For pensions, we still pay.
24:35Yesterday, there was an increase in pensions per
24:37THR, we still increase
24:39the spending,
24:41which grew by 4%.
24:43Last year, there was a fairly high increase.
24:45The subsidy that the President
24:47mentioned, the PUPUK subsidy,
24:49try to imagine,
24:51in 2025,
24:53by March, we have
24:55issued 1.7
24:57million tons.
24:59And this was done
25:01on time and
25:03in accordance with the President's
25:05simplification instructions,
25:07which explains how
25:09we can secure
25:11a good harvest.
25:13Because the PUPUK subsidy came
25:15when it was planted.
25:17Years before,
25:19the PUPUK subsidy came, there was a budget,
25:21but it came late and
25:23disappeared. So, this
25:25matters a lot. Reform
25:27has a huge
25:29impact on
25:31the improvement of
25:33the implementation. Some
25:35of the PUPUK subsidy,
25:37LPG 3 kg, electricity
25:39subsidy, all of them
25:41experienced an increase in volume.
25:43This means that the PUPUK works to
25:45protect the people,
25:47so that those who feel burdened
25:49in the current situation, they
25:51get protection from the PUPUK.
25:53Government spending to
25:55the regional government is also
25:57maintained and on track.
25:59This is even what the President
26:01said. If we
26:03now spend almost three
26:05months to the regional government,
26:07we should see
26:09every rupiah must be
26:11really useful for the people.
26:13Starting from village funds,
26:15income distribution funds,
26:17public allocation funds, special allocation
26:19funds, both physical and
26:21non-physical. So, all
26:23the numbers in the PUPUK are
26:25seen in more detail.
26:27That's probably what makes
26:29many uncomfortable. But
26:31the purpose is to
26:33ensure that every rupiah
26:35works to be
26:37enjoyed by the people directly.
26:39PUPUK financing,
26:41because many people say
26:43whether the PUPUK will have a deficit,
26:45and how much the deficit will be.
26:47The PUPUK is designed with a deficit
26:49of 2.53 percent. This is in accordance
26:51with the APBN laws
26:53agreed by the DPR, namely
26:55Law 62 of 2024.
26:572.53 percent
26:59means a deficit of Rp 616 trillion.
27:01Even now,
27:03our deficit and financing
27:05can be issued Rp 250 trillion
27:07for our country's
27:09price paper Rp 282 trillion.
27:11Indeed, there is an increase because
27:13we do front-loading
27:15anticipating that
27:17Mr. Trump will
27:19make a lot of disruptions.
27:21If we do front-loading,
27:23it's not because we don't have money.
27:25It's because our strategy
27:27is to anticipate
27:29uncertainties that will
27:31cause an increase.
27:33We want to say that
27:35we will still maintain the APBN,
27:37especially our debt
27:39and deficit
27:41in a prudent,
27:43transparent, careful way.
27:45This is why, as Mr. Menko said,
27:47our rating remains stable
27:49even the outlook
27:51remains stable.
27:53APBN is an instrument to
27:55finance a lot of important programs.
27:57Food security, as Mr. President
27:59said earlier. We have
28:01given 1.3 million tons of
28:03fertilizer subsidies
28:05in the first three months.
28:07Energy security, BPM subsidies,
28:09electricity subsidies, food
28:11subsidies, we have received Rp 2.6 million.
28:13Maybe we will always update
28:15in the next few months
28:17and Mr. Dadan will also be able to
28:19update. We will still
28:21maintain education programs.
28:23The President asked us to maintain this.
28:25There are even new initiatives
28:27that are all
28:29financed in the APBN
28:31envelope.
28:33So don't worry
28:35if the APBN doesn't explode.
28:37Many people say,
28:39does the APBN explode? No.
28:41The President's programs are
28:43in the existing APBN space.
28:45Health programs,
28:47including free health
28:49checkups,
28:51are already estimated in the APBN.
28:53Village development,
28:55including village cooperation,
28:57will also use village funds.
28:59The governance that we now
29:01work out, but do not add
29:03envelopes so that people
29:05assume that there will be
29:07an export that will make our APBN
29:09unsustainable.
29:11The defense of the universe,
29:13both for the military and the defense industry
29:15are all in our APBN.
29:17And among
29:19those established,
29:21including the use of dividends,
29:23we have calculated it.
29:25So we want to say that the APBN
29:27remains as an anchor of confidence
29:29because this is very important.
29:31And in this regard,
29:33we and Mr. Rosan and the Minister of State-Owned Enterprises
29:35will continue to work together.
29:37As stated by the President,
29:39the APBN must be managed
29:41prudently and transparently
29:43because this is a treasure for our children and grandchildren.
29:45We will
29:47design with
29:49governance where
29:51there is strong oversight
29:53and
29:55pressure to avoid conflict of interest
29:57and corruption-free.
29:59For programs that have been identified,
30:01it will still be seen
30:03professionally so that
30:05good goals are carried out
30:07and can be managed
30:09with confidence and accountability.
30:11That will certainly give assurance.
30:13We will be together
30:15with friends of BUMN and
30:17to continue to convey
30:19to the investors who are still asking
30:21because both APBN
30:23include two things that are still being asked.
30:25But I want to say
30:27that we are responsible to
30:29maintain the confidence of the President,
30:31the mission given by the President,
30:33but also the confidence of the market
30:35and the people.
30:37Because it's all the same.
30:39The goal is the same, the goal is good
30:41and because of that, we will manage it well.
30:43That's all I can say.
30:45I hope it can provide
30:47clarification and also
30:49give peace of mind
30:51to the people and all economic actors.
30:55May peace be upon you.