This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. A sunny week before a change this weekend but for some this means more sunshine, and for others, some rain. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00This week we're going to see lots more spring sunshine, but some of us for a little while are going to be stuck under the cloud and it's also going to be a bit colder as well.
00:09But a change is on the way and where you do get stuck under the cloud, we're likely to see more sunshine towards the end of the week.
00:16But how long is this sunshine going to last? How hot is it going to get? And is this sunshine going to stick around for the Easter bank holiday weekend?
00:25That's lots of questions that hopefully I'm going to answer on this week's Deep Dive.
00:29Hello, my name's Anna Krizwick. I'm a meteorologist and presenter here at the Met Office.
00:34And if you haven't already, make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss any of our content.
00:38And make sure to give this video a thumbs up as well. Give it a thumbs up now, just in case you don't make it to the end. Why not?
00:46So we're going to dive into the weather this week. We're going to look at a bit of a longer range forecast as well.
00:51But actually, the weather's pretty quiet. I was kind of struggling to find things that we could talk about this week.
00:56But I found a good few interesting things. So let's get underway.
01:01So firstly, let's take a look at this satellite picture.
01:05Firstly, let's take a look at yesterday. There's just nothing there.
01:09It was wall-to-wall sunshine for many of us.
01:12I think there was a bit of fog during the morning, particularly around North Sea Coast.
01:16That's kind of the theme, particularly for the beginning of the week.
01:18But look at that. Lovely sunshine, lovely spring sunshine.
01:21And it felt quite warm in that sunshine too. Obviously, with the clear skies at night.
01:25I went to the beach last night. It did soon turn very chilly, didn't it?
01:30Even though it was quite a nice sunset.
01:32If we drag this forward to recently, it's pretty similar.
01:37There's just a little bit of cloud here.
01:39I'm pretty sure Alex referred to this yesterday as the Surrey sausage.
01:42It's got some cloud stemming up from Surrey all the way through into Wales this afternoon.
01:48But still dry and pretty much everywhere, seeing a lovely day.
01:52So we've had lots of questions. How long is this sunshine going to last?
01:55It's the start of the Easter holidays for many of us.
01:58I know some people start next week.
02:00And people want to know. People are enjoying the weather and want to know how long it's going to last.
02:04So let's take a look.
02:05So I'm just going to switch this off.
02:09And I'm going to start off on Wednesday.
02:12And here we go.
02:13The reason for the settled weather, we've got high pressure that we all know and love.
02:17And it's a good high pressure as well.
02:19It's fairly clear, fairly clear, which has brought a lot of that sunshine.
02:22But obviously, there's clear skies overnight.
02:24It's been quite chilly in the morning.
02:25We've seen a really good range in temperatures from early in the morning towards the afternoon,
02:30which we're going to talk about a little bit too.
02:32So high pressure, yes.
02:34The only thing, if we follow these winds around in a clockwise direction,
02:38the way the winds turn around an area of high pressure,
02:41that does mean an easterly flow around eastern areas.
02:46And with easterly flows this time of year, we tend to get moisture moving in from the North Sea,
02:51dragging in some low clouds and sea fog around eastern areas.
02:54But the sun's just about getting warm enough now that it's burning a lot of that back towards the coast.
03:00But unfortunately, it's kind of lingering there for a time, particularly on Wednesday.
03:04Eastern areas likely to see a lot of kind of low cloud fog moving into those eastern areas.
03:09It's not quite burning back enough so that coastal areas do get stuck underneath the cloud with that easterly.
03:15And it's fairly similar if I jump ahead towards Friday as well.
03:19We've still got a little bit of an easterly.
03:21Notice that high has now shifted its way southward.
03:24So it's central areas, parts of the southeast might start to see a bit of that low cloud dragging.
03:30But still, high pressure across the UK.
03:31So it's going to be lovely weather, at least over the next couple of days.
03:35Friday, once again, notice that shift, that high now further to the west, further to the southwest.
03:41And now if we follow those winds around, we've got a change in that wind direction.
03:45So more of a northwesterly.
03:47We say goodbye to the easterly and introduce a northwesterly.
03:49So that means we're not going to get that cooler flow of air around those North Sea coasts.
03:54We're going to see a change.
03:55So something a bit warmer across the country, really, rather than those cooler temperatures across the east, across the board, really.
04:01By the time we get to Friday, we're going to see nice warm temperatures, nice sunny conditions too.
04:06There's always someone to ruin it, isn't there?
04:08Look what we see here.
04:09That high pressure shifts its way southwards.
04:11That's allowing a bit more mobility out from the Atlantic too.
04:14So if I drag this forward into Saturday, I'm afraid we start to see a bit more clouds, some outbreaks of rain and drizzle start to move into the north.
04:24But across the south, high pressure is still holding on.
04:26So across southern areas, it's still going to be rather nice.
04:29But by the time we reach Sunday, perhaps a bit more widespread and unsettled.
04:34But before we talk about the weekend, I just want to go into a bit more detail for the week.
04:38So if I turn this off, I'm just going to jump ahead to, I'm going to go to tomorrow morning.
04:48So here we go.
04:49So this is 10am, so it's still kind of mid-morning.
04:52But you can see all this cloud across northeastern parts of Scotland, northeastern England, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, parts of East Anglia.
04:59It looks like that kind of low cloud is dragging into the kind of London area.
05:03Parts of Sussex and Kent may be getting some of that low cloud as well.
05:08So when you first wake up in the morning, if you're in any of these regions, you're going to look outside and think, oh, it's grey and it's cold.
05:16But anywhere else further west, you're going to see a lovely bright start, but it's still going to be chilly.
05:20Well, we can see through the course of the day is that that sun does burn it back.
05:24It definitely burns it back away from kind of the far southeast.
05:27But by the afternoon, there is still some of that cloud lingering on.
05:30So that's where we're going to see those temperatures not going to get quite as warm.
05:33They're not going to see as much sun.
05:34We're not going to get quite as much radiation.
05:36So the sunshine is going to be limited and so the temperatures aren't going to be quite as warm.
05:41And there's a bit of an onshore breeze as well.
05:43That's also going to add on to the wind chill.
05:45So I'm afraid these areas are not seeing as quite nice of a day.
05:49But elsewhere, look, once again, very, very little cloud.
05:52Water will sunshine once again and it's going to be feeling warmer.
05:54Actually, temperatures are kind of on the up day by day.
05:56Now, it's similar on Thursday, where I'm stood in your way a little bit with this slider.
06:04But don't worry, we've seen your comments and we are going to move it.
06:08But once again, as I noted, as I kind of pointed to earlier, that high pressure starting to shift its way southwards.
06:14Those easterly winds changing a little bit further south.
06:17So kind of northeastern areas where that cloud set to linger Thursday is probably going to see a bit more of an improvement.
06:22But kind of the Humber area, East Anglia, moving into kind of London once again and parts of the south is dragging in that low cloud during the first part of the morning.
06:33But similar to Wednesday, we're going to see an improvement into the afternoon.
06:36But there's always that risk.
06:38There is always that risk of some low cloud lingering on.
06:40And then as we start to see that change in the north as well, some low clouds starting to move in there.
06:48Shetland, Orkney, for example, could see quite a cloudy day as we head into Thursday.
06:52Those temperatures not quite improving as much as other areas.
06:56But by the time we reach Friday, that kind of high pressure once again sinking to the south.
07:00Many areas seeing a good deal of sunshine since this is when we start to say goodbye, really, to any of that low cloud moving its way through.
07:08But then once again, lower pressure moving into the far north.
07:13So it's Scotland once again that I'm afraid are going to see the poorer conditions by the end of the week.
07:18More clouds, some rain drizzles.
07:20It looks fairly light and moderate.
07:21This feature is kind of a waving feature, which means it's not really moving anywhere.
07:25So where we do catch the rain, it's probably going to be quite persistent rain through much of the day.
07:30But elsewhere, much of England and Wales once again seeing a very nice day.
07:34All thanks to that clear high pressure that we know and love.
07:38So that's kind of the general setup over the next few days.
07:41Let's take a look at temperatures then.
07:43This is where it does start to get quite interesting.
07:48So drag that through to Wednesday.
07:52There we go.
07:52So Wednesday straight away, you can see that temperature difference from east to west.
07:59Temperatures only really reaching 9, 10 degrees.
08:02And with the cloud and the onshore wind, it's probably not going to feel that pleasant tomorrow.
08:07Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
08:09But further west, we can see much better temperatures.
08:12This is kind of showing highs of kind of 15, 16.
08:16But it's likely we'll get into the high teens, possibly even the 20s, particularly across western parts of the highlands.
08:22Could definitely, when that sunshine sticks around, get a bit of a fern effect there.
08:26And there's going to be a good deal of sunshine as well.
08:28So it's going to feel quite warm.
08:31And you can see through Thursday, Friday, even into Saturday, those temperatures constantly on the up.
08:36But the main difference we can see is these eastern areas.
08:39So if we compare Wednesday, 9 to 10 degrees, jump over to Friday.
08:44More like, well, we've got kind of 18, 19 degrees.
08:47Temperature is probably going to be a few degrees higher than this.
08:50Good chance we could start to get to 19, 20 degrees where we see that more of the sunshine in eastern areas.
08:56So those temperatures are on the up.
08:59And where we see that cloud in the east, by the time we reach the end of the week, you'll have forgotten all about it.
09:04And you'll be out there enjoying the sunshine, maybe sticking the barbecue on.
09:08So it's an improving picture for the most part.
09:11But obviously, as we head into Saturday and that high pressure sits further to the south,
09:14that allows that Atlantic mobility to take hold.
09:17More cloud, more rain starting to move into the north.
09:20So those temperatures are going to drop, I'm afraid, across northwestern parts of Scotland.
09:24But nevertheless, it is an improving picture.
09:27And obviously, we've had quite cold nights as well over the last couple of nights.
09:32We've seen a spot of frost as well.
09:34I think Scotland, we got down to about minus 5 last night.
09:37But then through the day, we're getting up to the mid to high teens.
09:40So that temperature difference between kind of early morning through into the afternoon,
09:44there's a really big difference there.
09:46And we can see temperatures through the week gradually on the rise.
09:50These are kind of towns and cities' temperatures.
09:52So in those rural spots, it's always going to be a bit chillier there.
09:55So there's always a chance of frost.
09:57That's not uncommon for this time of year.
10:00So rural spots, clear skies, it's likely you could see some light patchy frost.
10:03But nevertheless, it's just going to feel that bit chillier.
10:06And then through the week, not feeling quite as chilly, but obviously under those clear skies still,
10:10those temperatures are still going to drop away.
10:12So I've spoken a lot about kind of max temperatures, minimum temperatures.
10:19But what's really interesting is the temperature difference, as I've already kind of mentioned.
10:24And it really always depends whereabouts that high sits, whereabouts our wind direction is coming from,
10:29whereabouts that cloud is lingering on.
10:31And it really changes day by day.
10:33So here we go.
10:35This is 24-hour maximum temperature difference.
10:38So this one, oh, here we go, on your left.
10:43This one on the left is for Wednesday, and this one on the right is for Thursday.
10:49So we can see here lots of these blue colours.
10:51So temperatures really not, well, really cold kind of compared to the day before.
10:56Not really much improvement, not really warming up.
10:59But then if we compare Wednesday to Thursday, Thursday's temperatures are marked increase,
11:06particularly around those eastern areas.
11:07So this is when we start to see that high pressure shift.
11:10We see that change in wind direction and those temperatures really improving.
11:13We've got some quite dark red colours here.
11:16That's more than, that's more than 10 degrees here, more than 10 degrees difference in temperature.
11:21So you're really going to feel that warmth through the, through the course of the week, particularly in eastern areas.
11:25But then if I'm just going to shift Thursday over to the left and pop Friday on the right here, we see a shift once again is that high pressure swings around, moves slightly further south.
11:37And it's across Scotland where, even though they're going to see the best of the temperatures at the beginning of the week, those temperatures are really going to start to decrease as we start to see that more cloud, more rain start to move through there.
11:47So it's a significant difference if you compare it Thursday to Friday, even in kind of eastern parts of Scotland.
11:53Not as much of a change, but it's still going to be much cooler if you compare it to Thursday.
11:59And even across the south, we're going to see a quite big improvement in temperatures too.
12:03Still lots of these kind of orangey colours, so kind of 5 to 10 degrees difference in some spots.
12:09So it's really going to change day by day where we see the best of the temperatures.
12:14But there's a good chance that possibly by Friday, Saturday, we could start to see temperatures in the low 20s.
12:20So it's going to feel, yeah, a lot warmer, a lot more pleasant.
12:23But in some areas, we're going to start to see a decline in those temperatures once again, particularly across the north.
12:28So I just thought that was really interesting, the comparison day to day and those shifts in temperatures through the week.
12:33So what else was I going to talk about? Temperatures.
12:40Yes, I'm also going to talk about UV.
12:42At this time of year, it's really easy to forget, isn't it, that UV levels, they're on the rise.
12:48Things are starting to get warmer.
12:50Our kind of tilt in relation to the into the sun is starting to change.
12:57And it's very easy to think that temperatures mostly rely on it.
13:02Or UV, sorry, is mostly reliant on temperature.
13:05But actually, there's not a direct correlation between temperature and UV.
13:10I'm going to show that here.
13:12So this is temperature through the course of the year.
13:16Here we are kind of beginning of April.
13:18And you can see there is a steady decline, obviously, as we get to the summer months.
13:22The kind of peak is going to be where we see that summer solstice.
13:26So the longest day of the year kind of, I think it's like beginning or middle part of July.
13:30And then we start to see that steady decrease as we head into winter.
13:34So that black line is the temperature through the year.
13:36But we can see UV through the year kind of peaks around about middle of June.
13:43And then we start to decrease once again.
13:45So it's not necessarily the hottest temperatures that are going to give us the highest UV levels.
13:50And what's interesting about kind of UV at this time of year, if we follow this line up here.
13:56So we're about there.
13:58What's that?
13:59Four-ish.
14:00And then if we follow this along here, it's kind of similar to the end of August, beginning of September.
14:07So more into the summer.
14:09So actually, UV levels, they are increasing.
14:11And in the sunshine, it's really important to remember that because there's easily, you could easily get burnt.
14:17UV levels this week are definitely moderate, if not borderline high.
14:20And it's similar beginning of April to what we could see kind of towards the end of August and September.
14:26But obviously, people might be a bit more aware by then as we sort of move into later into the summer.
14:32And the UV is going to be high this week.
14:35Or moderate, I should say.
14:36But kind of borderline high.
14:38All across the country, we're seeing fours or five, particularly across Wales, parts of the south and southwest.
14:44We're in that moderate category.
14:46We're at fives a lot of the time.
14:47But you only have to push up to six to get into that high category.
14:51And it's fairly similar through the week as well, if we take a look at some of the cities across the UK.
14:57Obviously, Lerwick, we're seeing a bit more cloud across the north.
15:00So the UV levels aren't going to be quite as high there.
15:03Obviously, slightly further north as well.
15:05But across much of the country, we're still sticking in those threes, fours, fives.
15:09So those UV levels, they are on the up and they are going to be high.
15:14So it's important to remember your sun cream.
15:17Don't want to sound too much like you, Mum.
15:18But it is important.
15:19UV obviously is an important thing that we forecast here at the Met Office.
15:22And it is going to be moderate through the course of the week.
15:26So it's an important thing to remember.
15:30Another thing, actually, with the nicer weather.
15:32I don't know if you've noticed, but the pollen levels, they're also on the rise this week.
15:37Let me remind myself what the pollen is.
15:41It's birch, alder and ash pollen.
15:43I was going to a couple of people this week and they've noticed the noses are starting to sniffle.
15:48And that's because pollen is also on the up.
15:51There's quite a few areas that are in the very high category.
15:53So Northern Ireland, Wales, parts of the southwest.
15:56But elsewhere, it's high to moderate.
15:58So those pollen levels really starting to increase.
16:01So it's not just the UV, but it's also the pollen that's on the rise.
16:04And that's the same through the course of the week as well.
16:07Exeter, across the southwest, it's staying very high through much of the week.
16:12Still a little bit lower up north.
16:13But elsewhere, it's still kind of moderate to high, if not very high at times.
16:17So if you're a hay fever sufferer, now's the time to get your antihistamines out.
16:22But the weather can really affect the kind of pollen levels that we have.
16:26And we have actually recently uploaded a video onto our YouTube channel, one of our evergreen videos,
16:31describing all things pollen, featuring yours truly.
16:35And even I learned loads about pollen and different kind of pollen levels and how the weather can affect it.
16:39So we're just going to show you a little clip from that now.
16:42If several warm days occur in a row, the heat can lead to a faster dispersal of pollen into the air.
16:48And once it's all been released, the supply can be exhausted.
16:52With no new pollen being produced immediately, pollen levels can drop significantly or even run out.
16:58This effect can vary depending on the type of plant.
17:00But in general, very hot weather tends to signal a decrease in pollen production.
17:06And what about wind?
17:07Well, then it all gets a bit more complicated.
17:10If the wind is too light, the pollen will barely get off the ground to be dispersed.
17:15But if it's too windy, the pollen gets blown further afield and thins out significantly.
17:21Different types of pollen will need different wind speeds for ideal dispersion.
17:25But birch pollen, for example, needs moderate to high winds.
17:29So there we go.
17:30We filmed that just a few weeks ago.
17:31We really started to see that spring sunshine.
17:34We'll drop the link in the description if you want to watch more.
17:37And make sure if you do go check it out, give it a like as well.
17:40But yeah, it's really interesting how pollen can affect the weather.
17:42And obviously we're seeing those conditions as we head through the week.
17:45And that's why the pollen levels are on the up.
17:47So we've spoken a bit about the weather this week, temperatures, the change of kind of where we're going to see that temperature change.
17:56Spoken a bit about pollen.
17:57And now I'm afraid to say, sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the area of high pressure that's been giving us the settled weather over the, over the, well, over the next few days, it is eventually going to sink southwards.
18:12As I've already mentioned, we're going to start to see something a bit more unsettled start to initially move its way into the north and then sink its way southeastwards.
18:20And that does kind of make its way into something a bit more unsettled over the weekend.
18:27But there's still a few little details, a few little uncertainties as we head into Sunday in particular.
18:34It's likely we're going to see some rain, some showers, possibly even some thunderstorms as well.
18:38So we're going to take a quick look at that.
18:40So one Saturday, as I already mentioned, that high pressure, it's still clinging on across the south.
18:44So there's still going to be lots of dry weather around away from Scotland, though, where we'll start to see more cloud, more outbreaks of rain.
18:50As this system starts to push through, that through Saturday, and it's later Saturday into Sunday that we're going to start to see more and more of this kind of more unsettled weather sink its way southeastward.
19:03So Sunday for many is going to be a bit more of an unsettled day compared to what we've had recently.
19:09So if I go even later Saturday, here we go.
19:20So by the afternoon, obviously more clouds, some rain, some showers.
19:25We'll see an increase in the breeze as well, starting to move into Scotland, Northern Ireland, perhaps a bit more in the way of cloud across the south as well.
19:32And perhaps just the odd showers are starting to clip the very far south.
19:35So it's starting to say kind of goodbye to those nice evenings as well that we're going to have this week.
19:39And then it's later Saturday through into Sunday that we see those kind of more unsettled conditions become a bit more widespread as well.
19:47So more showers, more clouds starting to move its way in from the west.
19:53Now, as I've mentioned already, there are some uncertainties there.
19:56I'm going to show, here we go.
19:58So this is something what we call the postage stamps.
20:02I'm sure you've seen these kind of things many times in deep dives.
20:06So this is from our global model.
20:09We run this model over and over, slightly tweaking the initial conditions each time to kind of give us an indication of the kind of weather we could potentially expect over the weekend.
20:19So this is for Sunday.
20:22This is midday on Sunday.
20:23So, sorry if they're a bit small, but hopefully we can zoom in.
20:28Just going to draw your attention to this first one here across the southeast.
20:32This is kind of indicating that we're seeing a bit of a plume push up from the south.
20:36And we could potentially see some quite heavy showers skirt the south and southeast, possibly affecting London, Sussex, Kent, maybe even parts of East Anglia, parts of southern counties, Bournemouth, Southampton, for example, those kind of areas.
20:49So this is the control member, so a chance that we could see some poorer conditions move up from the southeast.
20:57But you can see the next two members don't really show anything across the southeast.
21:01So a chance that actually could just skip land altogether, push up through across the English Channel, perhaps push more into France and not really affect us at all.
21:09But you can see some of these members actually show something a bit more significant.
21:13So if we go all the way down to member 34 here, this shows something way more widespread.
21:19So more heavy rain pushing up into Wales, northern parts of England, perhaps parts of eastern Scotland there.
21:27And so more quite a widespread unsettled day ahead was that warmer plume, that more humid plume pushes up across the south.
21:33But you can see a lot of the members are actually showing something small across the southeast, either nothing at all.
21:40So there's probably more of a kind of 80 percent chance that we'll see something across the southeast or nothing and unlikely to be anything significant.
21:49But there's always a chance we can't just completely rule out these other members that are showing something a bit more significant.
21:54It's happened in the past where it might not necessarily be the majority, and that's what's actually ended up happening.
21:59So this is kind of, once again, a little look into the kind of things that we look at here in the METOF to kind of forecast what's to come and the kind of different model members that we can look at.
22:11So just giving you an indication that, yes, on Sunday, it looks like it's going to turn unsettled, more showery, perhaps even a risk of thunderstorms.
22:20And it's kind of marking that change into something a bit more changeable, particularly for the beginning of next week.
22:26And this is shown quite nicely here.
22:29So I'm sure you've seen these before as well.
22:31Red colours kind of showing weather patterns associated with high pressure across the UK, but the bluer colours associated with low pressure.
22:39So we can see starting off today, tomorrow into Thursday, red colours, high pressure, that high pressure sticking around.
22:48And then it's into the weekend, as I've just shown you, where we're starting to see something a bit more unsettled move through, particularly on Sunday into Monday.
22:55So that's when we're going to start to see that change.
22:56So I'm afraid the sunshine's not sticking around for too much longer.
23:00You've really got to enjoy it this week.
23:02And then by the weekend, more cloud, more rain, more showers.
23:06Now, what you'll notice, so these are earlier model runs.
23:08So we'll find the latest model run at the top, and these are earlier ones.
23:12And what you've noticed is it looks like the general trend is that we kind of see a brief spell of these bluer colours,
23:18so a brief spell of the more unsettled weather.
23:20And then it starts to change a bit more into the red colours once again.
23:23So something perhaps more, this kind of Easter weekend here, so perhaps something a bit more settled as we head towards the Easter weekend.
23:32However, notice that these earlier model runs, as we kind of move our way back,
23:37they did initially have this kind of more unsettled spell just over a few days.
23:43But with the more recent model runs, it's kind of pushing it back.
23:46Notice this kind of diagonal shift.
23:47So as we head into Saturday, Sunday now, more recent model runs are indicating that actually we're going to see perhaps a slightly longer spell of more unsettled weather.
23:56And then maybe Saturday, Sunday, we could potentially see something a bit drier, a bit more settled.
24:01But if I draw your attention to these numbers, they're not particularly high.
24:04Saturday, 46 percent.
24:06Sunday, 54 percent.
24:08It's still kind of a 50-50 chance, really, of whether we see kind of something a bit more settled or a bit more unsettled.
24:14So that means, just showing you kind of from the postage stamps, kind of indications of high or low pressure,
24:22that our confidence as we head into next week, which isn't uncommon as we head further into the future with a longer lead time in forecasting,
24:29that our confidence in the model detail is kind of dropping.
24:32So this is a multi-model forecast confidence index.
24:35So taking into account all the models that we use here at the Met Office.
24:39So relatively good confidence as we head into this week with a high pressure.
24:44And then we start to see as we move through, particularly into next week towards the Easter weekend, that that confidence drops quite dramatically.
24:51So it's difficult to say, actually, what the kind of weather is going to be or where we're going to start to see that change as we head into next week
24:59and what the kind of weather is going to be doing as we head towards the Easter weekend as well.
25:03So just to give you an indication, really, that this week is going to be settled, we are going to see a change.
25:08But the details around that change are still a little bit tricky to be to be certain on.
25:14But while we're here, I do just want to give you a slight indication of potentially what we could see.
25:24So I'm going to just switch this on.
25:27I want this one.
25:29Here we go.
25:30So if I head over to Easter Sunday, when I eventually click on it, here we go.
25:42So obviously there we kind of saw there is that indication of high pressure potentially.
25:49But as we know with high pressure, as we're seeing this week, it really depends on whereabouts that high pressure sits to the kind of weather we can expect.
25:56And notice these are kind of three, the kind of top three potential signals at the moment for Sunday.
26:01Don't forget, it's still about two weeks away.
26:03So there's a good chance that this could change.
26:04But just to give you a very, very brief kind of signal.
26:06Well, Sunday the 20th, obviously, if we start to see that high pressure build back in across the UK, then we'll start probably see fairly similar conditions to what we've seen this week.
26:16Slightly cooler temperatures moving into the east, something slightly milder to the west, potentially fairly sunny.
26:21But obviously, if we see that high pressure shifted slightly further west, that will give us a bit more of a northerly.
26:27So things slightly cooler, yes, but it could be relatively clear.
26:31So potentially some quite good conditions.
26:33But notice the chances of these are still very low, 10% chance, 9% chance.
26:38So it's still very early to say.
26:40We already saw from that graph that the confidence level is fairly low.
26:44And it's really going to depend on what happens over the next week or so, where we start to see that change from those unsettled conditions, what kind of change that is.
26:53And that's really, it really depends on that detail as to what the weather's going to be on Easter.
26:57So an indication that something more settled is on its way for the Easter weekend before we see an unsettled spell before that.
27:05But any kind of detail in the weather is a little bit tricky to do at the moment, I'm afraid.
27:09So I think that is pretty much everything that I was going to talk you through this week.
27:17So I hope you enjoyed.
27:18It's a fairly short one this week, just because the weather is so quiet.
27:21Even globally, the weather's fairly quiet.
27:23There's still some things going on.
27:26And obviously, it's nice to enjoy the sunshine, but just make sure you're safe with those increasing UV levels.
27:32I've seen reports of some wildfires in Wales as well.
27:35So the kind of warmer weather, warm, dry weather isn't always a good thing.
27:40So I'm sure in some places, actually, the wet weather into next week is probably fairly welcome and probably a good thing in some spots.
27:48But, yeah, I hope you've enjoyed.
27:50I hope you enjoy the spring sunshine while it's here, before the rain and the showers turn up next week.
27:56And don't forget, tomorrow here on YouTube, this is why you need to subscribe, we have Alex Burkhill's 10-Day Trend.
28:02So he can talk about the next 10 days, perhaps give you a bit more of an idea of what the Easter holidays are going to do, potentially a bit more into the Easter weekend as well.
28:10So make sure you stay tuned for that, and he'll give you the details on those.
28:14But for now, that's it from me.
28:16If there's something you want answered, we have our weather studio live on Friday.
28:21It'll be me and Alex Burkhill, I believe, on Friday, answering any of your questions.
28:25That's Friday at 12.15.
28:26So make sure to stay tuned for that and leave any questions or comments you have in this video.
28:31And I'll try and have a look before Friday as well, and some of those we might be able to read out and answer for you too.
28:36But otherwise, I hope you have a lovely week.
28:38Enjoy the sunshine, and I'll see you again soon.