From much of Arkansas up through the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley, repeated rounds of heavy rain this week may lead to once-in-a-lifetime flooding.
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00:00John, we've been discussing all day that, yes, even though we are tracking tornado-worn storms
00:04that are producing large hail and frequent lightning, it does look like the most widespread
00:08and impactful risk we're going to be tracking is going to be that for devastating and possibly
00:13deadly flash flooding. That's right, Damian. That's going to be the most widespread risk.
00:17Certainly lots of dangers from the large hail, the damaging thunderstorm winds, and the tornadoes,
00:22which are all going to be significant here. But the longer-lasting and more widespread threat
00:28likely will be what can be historic and life-threatening flooding. You'd see on the
00:33water vapor loop here, we're looking sort of at an x-ray of the atmosphere and the amount of
00:37water vapor and moisture in the atmosphere. Those blues and greens are deeper areas of moisture,
00:42and you can see that starting to line up now across parts of the central United States.
00:47And over the next several days, this is going to be the same kind of weather pattern as repeated
00:52rounds of tropical moisture are drawn northward, and we deal with persistent downpours over the
00:58same areas. That's why we're so concerned about the flooding risk here. And Damian,
01:03some places may receive what they would typically receive in four months just in a few days.
01:08That's right. That's why we're going to see that devastating flooding here looking forward.
01:12And we just updated our map here as we go throughout today, tomorrow, and even as we
01:16head into the weekend. As you mentioned, John, we're going to see waves of intense rainfall,
01:22so kind of break down why this is going to be such a dangerous impact here for all these people
01:26living in these highlighted regions. Right. And the biggest corridor here is going to be from the
01:31area from much of Arkansas, the Ozarks of southern Missouri and northwest Arkansas up through the
01:38Mississippi Valley and up the Ohio Valley. So that includes portions of Kentucky, southern Indiana,
01:44southern Illinois, Missouri, also Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas here. And these are
01:50the areas that are going to receive those repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over saturated ground.
01:55The ground isn't going to be able to absorb any more of that water. It's going to run off.
01:59And the initial problems are going to be along creeks, streams and other low-lying areas.
02:04And then that's going to evolve into a major river flooding issue that can last for days
02:09after the rain even ends. So one of the things that we've been highlighting with this situation
02:13is that people may live in a community in this part of the country. You may have lived in the
02:18community for 25, 30, 40 years and never seen water where you're going to see high water and
02:24rapidly rising water in this particular situation. That's why I want everybody in this area to
02:29download the AccuWeather app, turn on push notifications. We deliver those warnings
02:33through the AccuWeather app faster on average than any other source. And we've had many people tell
02:39us that save their life by getting that advance warning and moving to higher ground in a flash
02:43flooding situation. And John, for some of these areas, yes, even if we are going to be seeing some
02:48of that major river flooding, that could, as it says there on that map, lead to widespread roads,
02:54even bridge washouts here because of all the rainfall we're expected to see.
02:59That's right. And in fact, that's going to result in perhaps major interstates being closed over a
03:03large multi-state area. That can be a major factor here. And of course, always, if you
03:09encounter a flooded roadway while you're driving, turn around, seek another route because you never
03:15know how deep that water is and how fast it's moving. There are so many lives lost in vehicle
03:21incidents related to high water. That's being aware of turning around and finding another route
03:27is a way to stay safer. All right, John. So we just highlighted this map right here. This is our
03:31AccuWeather exclusive rainfall forecast. And you can see that that darkest shade of green right
03:36there in the middle of that area you've been highlighting, that's where we're expected to see
03:39over, not up to, but over a foot of total rainfall. Damien, that's right. That's 12 to 18 inches during
03:47that Wednesday to Saturday night time period with an AccuWeather local storm max of 21 inches,
03:52which means that that's the maximum conceivable value in any of these locations. It is extremely
03:58rare for us to make a forecast with this high amount of rainfall expected outside of a tropical
04:04storm or hurricane. So obviously, there's a whole different weather situation, but think of the
04:08impacts here are like receiving three different tropical rainstorms moving through this area
04:14within a week. That's what it may feel like. And again, we're concerned there could be
04:18flash flooding that can escalate from a dangerous situation to a true life-threatening emergency in
04:23a matter of minutes. That's right. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter, thank you so
04:28much for your insight and for joining us. We'll make sure we check in with you here coming up.