The Scotsman Bulletin Tuesday April 01 2025 #AprilCruelDay
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's video bulletin for this Tuesday. My name's Dale Miller. I'm deputy editor of the Scotsman and I'm joined by our Westminster correspondent, Alexander Brown. Alex, we're going to get to talking about the front page splash from today's paper very, very shortly, just to talk it through. It has been dubbed Liberation Day by Donald Trump.
00:24It will be Wednesday that he's expected to announce details of more tariffs and how they will apply to countries across the globe.
00:32Turkey, Islam are saying that the UK expect it to be likely that they will also be hit by further tariffs.
00:39But our front page splash today, Scottish firms bracing for the impact.
00:43We've got some comments in there from the Federation of Small Businesses.
00:47It's fair to say that there are a lot of firms that are worried about these tariffs that do export to the US.
00:54We've got key products such as whiskey, Scottish salmon that are sent into the American market and there's specific concerns there.
01:03And it comes at a time when a lot of businesses are getting used to paying for extra national insurance contributions kicking into effect today and dealing with the rise in the real living wage, which means paying more overall for staff.
01:19Not necessarily saying that's a bad thing, but it does impact on the bottom line for business owners as well.
01:24And it all paints into a difficult picture for them.
01:29Some other good content there, including Maida from Celtic and why he's a shoo-in for player of the year.
01:36You can read both those stories currently at Scotsman.com.
01:39Alex, on the issue of tariffs, Liberation Day, it's a catchy phrase, but it won't be that catchy for world leaders and people owning businesses across the UK.
01:52What are we expecting? What are all the noises?
01:55So essentially, Donald Trump is going to announce 20 percent tariff across the board on basically all products that go into the United States of America.
02:04It is a hammer blow to much of British industry, especially automobiles.
02:10I think automobiles, 17 percent of cars exported from the UK go to America.
02:17So that's going to be a huge blow to them. And it really feels like the success that was felt after that first visit from the prime minister, that has now waned.
02:28I think it's interesting that there has been no immediate slapdown or backlash from the UK government.
02:33They have not said they'll be announcing retaliatory tariffs.
02:36That is perhaps because they recognise the UK's place and they know the impact by the US would be felt.
02:42But nowhere near as much as what we felt here. And the Starmer is now trying to mitigate it by negotiating a new economic deal with the United States of America.
02:51But it's also worth noting, Boris Johnson promised a trade deal with America when during the lofty years of Brexit, so, so long ago.
03:00And that failed to materialise. So we are in a position where the UK is going to be hit by tariffs.
03:05Products will get more expensive to come from America if they sell at all.
03:09And items that are going in, it's going to be very hard. It'll be harder for you to sell them.
03:16It's going to damage businesses. It's going to damage the economy.
03:18We don't know what it means for jobs. And the UK is not really in a position to do anything.
03:22Their only hope is to negotiate some way of softening the blow.
03:26And we still don't know what that really looks like. It is a very grim day for British business.
03:33Alex, can I just ask, we know Trump's mantra is make America great again.
03:38It's sort of, it was the key policy platform that won him the election.
03:43We could argue what won him, but certainly it was something that seemed to resonate with American voters.
03:49This is tied into it. But how did we get from a month ago, noises that maybe the UK would be exempt from tariffs,
03:56to today where Keir Starmer is admitting it's likely the UK will be hit by these tariffs that are going to apply to most countries across the world?
04:06I think there's an element of the United Kingdom hearing what it wants to hear.
04:10At no point did Trump say that he would not hit the UK with tariffs.
04:13He said, oh, he's very charming. Maybe we'll be able to work something out.
04:17Maybe we'll see what we're able to do. And I think it's worth saying that is still possible.
04:21He has repeatedly made threats and then rode back on them or made announcements.
04:26And then you turned because he's realized, you know, it's either damaging to the American economy or it's these firings mean that they can't fly planes properly.
04:35They don't have the requisite staff. So he is not against saying something and then rowing back on it immediately or denying that he's even said it in the case of calling Zelensky a dictator.
04:46So it's really just the graduation of a impulsive president and perhaps a downing street that presumed this was the normal price of business,
04:55that it was business as usual and just you could have you could negotiate, have good relations and nothing terrible would follow.
05:04It was naive. I think the White House is not the White House of normal negotiations.
05:10It is not a reliable partner. And lots of backbench MPs and opposition parties maybe warned that at the time.
05:16And we're now seeing the repercussions and the fallout from that.
05:19That's not to say that we don't have a good relationship with America, but for the moment, that hasn't saved us.
05:25And that's not absolved British business from a pretty significant blow.
05:30And Alex, we know John Swinney is traveling to New York later this week.
05:35It is the Tarvin Day parade this coming Saturday.
05:39It's tied into Tarvin week where Scotland has a visible presence in one of the biggest, busiest, biggest cities in the US.
05:47Is there anything he can do? I mean, it might be a stretch to say that he can organise a meeting for Donald Trump while he's there, while he is there.
05:56But is there anything that the first minister can do to try and make an impact on these discussions?
06:02I mean, the only real area of attack, you think, really, it's not negotiation.
06:05It's not policy, because it's worth remembering these policies will make goods more expensive for Americans.
06:11Americans will have to pay more. And we've already seen the price of eggs soar.
06:15The price of everything is going up in America and they're quite possibly facing recession.
06:19It's not basic economics. You can't appeal rationally to this administration.
06:24But what they can do and where there has been success before is appealing to the emotional level of Trump.
06:29If that means butchering him up, it means complimenting him and it means appealing to his Scottish heritage,
06:35his pride over Scottish heritage, something that he talks about a lot.
06:38And I know the first minister has highlighted before he's been quite cautious in his rhetoric.
06:43He has not gone down the route of maybe some of his MPs and criticising Donald Trump and criticising Labour for cozying up to him.
06:50He's taken a softer stance because he knows that I was through not just democracy,
06:55but a warm and positive relationship and just praising him relentlessly.
07:01There may be a way to say, look, it's bad for Scotland. It's bad for the land of your forefathers.
07:06Is there anything you can do? I think that sort of language we'll expect to hear.
07:10And I wouldn't be surprised if we see a photo of the first minister and a more junior member of the Trump family or cabinet.
07:17Just lastly, before we finish up, Alex, April Cruel Day is what campaign groups have dubbed today, April the 1st.
07:24Yes, it is April Fool's Day, but it's also the start of a new financial year.
07:29And amongst the costs, fees and bills going up here in Scotland, across the UK, you're looking at energy bills,
07:38you're looking at water bills, you're looking at ScotRail train fares.
07:42Obviously, we've discussed national insurance, but you're also looking at things like some car tax fees, mobile broadband going up for a lot of people.
07:51I mean, the list does go on and on. I haven't even mentioned council tax here.
07:55I know you've written about this in recent days.
07:58How big an impact is this and does the UK government in particular and to a degree the Scottish government need to do more?
08:06Well, I do think there is an element of both administrations trying to hold the hands up of responsibility on the issue of bills.
08:13They will all say that they think the price cap going up is too much, that it's unfair,
08:18but they won't step in to stop the independent regulators doing it because it's an independent regulator.
08:22I think I read a piece from Sunday's edition about this.
08:25It was our splash, which polling showed that while Scots believe that renewables are the path to cheaper energy,
08:32which obviously should mean that they support Labour because Labour Party's whole thing,
08:36their biggest policy platform at all is GB energy and direct investment in renewables and the phasing out of the North Sea gas and oil.
08:45But the polling also showed Scots do not trust either party on the issue of energy bills.
08:51They don't trust them to bring energy bills down, although there's a coherent plan.
08:54So it's unclear what the government can do aside from direct state intervention.
08:59I don't think we're going to see them subsidise bills in the way they have done previously.
09:03And the story did kind of show in the polling shows when you look at the hard data,
09:07that the UK government and Scottish government has to do something at the moment.
09:11It's a huge issue for Scots and voters don't trust either of them to deliver on it.
09:16You can read all the stories that we've discussed on this bulletin at Scotsman.com,
09:22including that polling story on Scotsview on energy use and costs and bills.
09:29Just follow the or head to the politics tab in the navigation bar on the site.
09:34You'll be able to find all the very latest.
09:36Please follow us on all social media channels and buy a copy of the paper tomorrow for all the latest,
09:41including a bit of a preview of what we might expect on Liberation Day.
09:45Alex, thanks to you. Thanks to everyone else for joining us.
09:52Thanks, everyone.