On Tuesday, DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified before the Senate Intel Committee, presenting the 2025 Threat Assessment.
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NewsTranscript
00:00of Capitol Police in the room. Any disruptions, either opposed or in favor to the witnesses,
00:07will result in prompt removal from the hearing room and my encouragement to the U.S. Attorney
00:12to throw the book at the person disrupting the hearing. No offense, but we all came to
00:20hear the witnesses, no one else in the room. Director Gabbard, I understand you'll make
00:25a statement for the panel of witnesses. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Vice Chair, members
00:31of the committee. Thanks for the opportunity for us to be here to present you the Intelligence
00:36Community's 2025 Annual Threat Assessment. I'm joined here this morning by my colleagues
00:41from the CIA, DIA, FBI, and NSA. Our testimony offers the collective assessment of the 18
00:50U.S. intelligence elements making up the U.S. intel community and draws on intelligence
00:55collection and information available to the IC from open source and private sector and
01:01the expertise of our analysts. This report evaluates what the IC assesses most threatens
01:07our people and our nation's ability to live in a peaceful, free, secure, and prosperous
01:13society. As you know, we face an increasingly complex threat environment that is threatening
01:19us here at home and our interests abroad. I'll begin by focusing on what most immediately
01:25and directly threatens the United States and the well-being of the American people, non-state
01:30criminal groups and terrorists putting American lives and livelihood at risk. Then I'll focus
01:35on the key nation states who have the capability to threaten the interests of the United States.
01:40In this complex environment, non-state and state actors are able to exploit or take advantage
01:46of the effects of each other's activities. Conventional and asymmetrical capabilities,
01:53even the traditionally weakest of actors are able to acquire from available advanced technologies,
01:58creates an even more complex and serious threat landscape. First, I'll highlight the threats
02:04presented by several non-state actors. Cartels, gangs, and other transnational criminal organizations
02:10in our part of the world are engaging in a wide array of illicit activity from narcotics
02:14trafficking to money laundering to smuggling of illegal immigrants and human trafficking,
02:20which endanger the health, welfare, and safety of everyday Americans. Based on the latest
02:25reporting available for a year-long period ending October 2024, cartels were largely
02:30responsible for the deaths of more than 54,000 U.S. citizens from synthetic opioids. Mexico-based
02:38transnational criminal organizations, or TCOs, are the main suppliers of illicit fentanyl
02:44to the U.S. market and are adapting to enforcement and regulatory pressures by using multiple
02:50sources and methods to procure precursor chemicals and equipment primarily from China and India,
02:57many of which are dual-use chemicals used in legitimate industries. Independent fentanyl
03:02producers are also increasingly fragmenting the drug trade in Mexico. The availability
03:08of precursor chemicals and ease of making illicit fentanyl have enabled independent
03:13actors to increase illicit fentanyl production and smuggling operations in Mexico.
03:20Cartels are profiting from human trafficking and have likely facilitated more than two
03:25million illegal immigrants encountered by law enforcement at the U.S. southwest border
03:29in 2024 alone, straining our vital resources and putting the American people at risk. Criminal
03:36groups drive much of the unrest and lawlessness in the Western Hemisphere. They also engage
03:41in extortion, weapons and human smuggling, and other illicit and dangerous revenue-seeking
03:46operations, including kidnappings for ransom, forced labor, and sex trafficking. These and
03:52other human traffickers exploit vulnerable individuals and groups by promising well-paying
03:57jobs while confiscating their identification documents. They operate in the shadows, exploiting
04:03lawlessness in various areas, and using coercion and intimidation to control their victims.
04:10While these key drivers of migrants are expected to persist, heightened U.S. border security
04:15enforcement and deportations under the Trump administration are proving to serve as a deterrent
04:20for migrants seeking to illegally cross U.S. borders. U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions
04:25along the southwest border in January 2025 dropped 85 percent from the same period in
04:322024. Transnational Islamist extremists such as ISIS and al-Qaida and affiliated jihadi
04:39groups continue to pursue, enable, or inspire attacks against the United States and our
04:44citizens abroad and within the homeland to advance their ultimate objective of establishing
04:50a global Islamist caliphate. This includes heightened efforts to spread their ideology
04:54to recruit and radicalize individuals in the U.S. and the West. While the New Year's Day
05:00attacker in New Orleans had no known direct contact with ISIS terrorists, he was influenced
05:06and radicalized by ISIS ideological propaganda, as one example. Al-Qaida and its affiliates
05:12continue to call for attacks against the United States as they conduct attacks overseas. These
05:19jihadist groups have shown their ability to adapt and evolve, including using new technologies
05:24and tactics to spread their ideology and recruit new followers. A range of non-state cyber
05:30criminals are also targeting our economic interests, critical infrastructure, and advanced
05:35commercial capability for extortion, other coercive pursuits, and financial gain. These
05:42actors use a variety of tactics, including phishing, ransomware, and denial of service
05:46attacks to disrupt our systems and steal sensitive and lucrative information using available
05:52technologies and U.S. cyber vulnerabilities. Ransomware actors last year, for example,
05:58attacked the largest payment processor for U.S. health care institutions. And another
06:03set of criminal actors conducted cyber attacks against U.S. water utilities. Some of these
06:09non-state cyber actors also operate as proxies for or emulate similar activities carried
06:14out by major state actors. While these non-state cyber actors often seek financial and intellectual
06:19property gains, they also carry out cyber operations for espionage purposes, targeting
06:25our critical infrastructure. Turning to key state actors, the IC sees China, Russia, Iran,
06:32and North Korea engaging in activities that could challenge U.S. capabilities and interests,
06:37especially related to our security and economy. These actors are in some cases working together
06:43in different areas to target U.S. interests and to protect themselves from U.S. sanctions.
06:49At this point, the IC assesses that China is our most capable strategic competitor.
06:55Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, the People's Republic of China seeks to
06:59position itself as a leading power on the world stage, economically, technologically,
07:05and militarily. Beijing is driven in part by a belief that Washington is pursuing a
07:11broad effort to contain China's rise and undermine CCP rule. China's most serious
07:17domestic challenge is probably China's slowing economy and potential instability if socioeconomic
07:22grievances lead to large-scale unrest. Growing economic tensions with the United States
07:28and other countries could also weigh on China's plans for economic growth and domestic job creation.
07:35China's military is fielding advanced capabilities, including hypersonic weapons,
07:40stealth aircraft, advanced submarines, stronger space and cyber warfare assets,
07:45and a larger arsenal of nuclear weapons. While it would like to develop and maintain positive
07:51ties with the United States and the Trump administration to advance its interests and
07:55avoid conflict, China is building its military capability in part to gain advantage in the
08:01event of a military conflict with the United States around the issue of China's efforts
08:06toward unification with the Republic of China, or Taiwan. China's military is also expanding
08:11its presence in the Asia-Pacific region with a focus on disputed territorial claims
08:16in both the East China and South China Seas. Beijing is advancing its cyber capabilities
08:23for sophisticated operations aimed at stealing sensitive U.S. government and private sector
08:29information and pre-positioning additional asymmetric attack options that may be deployed
08:35in a conflict. China's cyber activities have been linked to multiple high-profile breaches,
08:40including last year's massive compromise of U.S. telecom infrastructure, commonly referred to as
08:45Salt Typhoon. Beijing currently dominates global markets and strategically important supply chains,
08:52for example, with the mining and processing of several critical minerals.
08:56In December, China imposed an export ban to the United States on gallium, germanium,
09:01and antimony, all of which are important to the production of semiconductors and our defense
09:06technologies. This was in direct response to U.S. export controls on chips designed
09:11to broadly limit PRC access to advanced chips and chipmaking equipment.
09:16China also aims to compete in other critical global industries, including AI,
09:20legacy semiconductor chip production, biomanufacturing and genetic sequencing,
09:25and medical and pharmaceutical supply production. Leveraging often heavily state-subsidized
09:31production at greater scale, lower costs, and weaker regulatory standards than required in
09:35the West, Beijing's strategy has given it a leading position in many parts of these sectors
09:41and supply chains that support them. In 2023, for example, China had five
09:47first-in-class domestic drug approvals and three FDA approvals.
09:53Turning to Russia, Russia's nuclear and conventional military capabilities,
09:57along with its demonstrated economic and military resilience, make it a formidable competitor.
10:02Moscow has more nuclear weapons than any other nation that could inflict catastrophic damage
10:08on the United States and the world in the event of a major war that Russian leaders feared put
10:14them and their regime at serious risk. In late 2024, Russia announced updates to its public
10:20nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions under which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons.
10:26Russia is building a more modern and survivable nuclear force designed to circumvent U.S. missile
10:31defense through reliable retaliatory strike potential. Russia intends to deter the U.S.
10:37by holding both the U.S. homeland at risk and by having the capabilities to threaten nuclear war
10:43in a conflict. Russia has developed advanced cyber capabilities and has attempted to pre-position
10:49access to U.S. critical infrastructure for asymmetric options and make it a persistent
10:55cyber threat. Russia's cyber activities have been linked to multiple high-profile breaches,
11:00including the 2023 hack of Microsoft. Russia is also fielding new capabilities and
11:06anti-satellite weapons meant to degrade U.S. and allied space infrastructure.
11:11Among Russia's most concerning developments is a new satellite intended to carry a nuclear
11:16weapon as an anti-satellite weapon, violating longstanding international law against such
11:22activity and putting the U.S. and global economy at risk. Iran continues to seek expansion of its
11:28influence in the Middle East, despite the degradation to its proxies and defenses during
11:33the Gaza conflict. Iran has developed and maintains ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs,
11:41including systems capable of striking U.S. targets and allies in the region.
11:46Tehran has shown a willingness to use these weapons, including during a 2020 attack on U.S.
11:51forces in Iraq and in attacks against Israel in April and October 2024. Iran's cyber operations
12:00and capabilities also present a serious threat to U.S. networks and data. The IC continues to
12:06assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not
12:11authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. The IC continues to monitor
12:17closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.
12:22In the past year, we've seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing
12:26nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's
12:32decision-making apparatus. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels
12:38and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.
12:42Iran will likely continue efforts to counter Israel and press for U.S. military withdrawal
12:47from the region by aiding, arming, and helping to reconstitute its loose consortium of like-minded
12:53terrorists and militant actors, which it refers to as its axis of resistance.
12:59Although weakened, this collection of actors still presents a wide range of threats,
13:04including to Israel's population, U.S. forces deployed in Iraq and Syria,
13:09and to U.S. and international military and commercial shipping and transit.
13:14North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is pursuing stronger strategic and conventional capabilities
13:19that can target U.S. forces and allies in the region, as well as the U.S. homeland,
13:25to bolster North Korea's leverage and stature, defend its regime, and achieve at least
13:31tacit recognition as a nuclear weapons power. Kim's recently cemented strategic partnership
13:39with Russia supports these goals by providing him greater financial, military, and diplomatic support,
13:46reduced reliance on China, and providing North Korean forces and weapons systems authentic
13:51warfighting experience. Kim views his strategic weapons advances since 2019,
13:57its deepening ties with Russia, and North Korea's economic durability as strengthening
14:02his negotiating position against Washington's demands for denuclearization and lessening his
14:07need for sanctions relief. North Korea is probably prepared to conduct another nuclear test on short
14:14notice and continues to flight test its ICBMs to demonstrate their increasing capabilities
14:21as leverage in future negotiations. Since 2022, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have grown
14:28closer. Removing the accelerant of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to revert these bilateral
14:34relationships to a pre-war 2021 baseline, leaving room for new strategic priorities
14:41and world events to create new incentives or challenges to their currently high levels of
14:47cooperation. Russia has been a catalyst for much of this expanded cooperation, driven heavily by
14:53the support it has needed for its war effort against Ukraine, including protection from U.S.
14:59and Western sanctions. In addition to its exchange of military and other resource capabilities with
15:05North Korea, Russia has relied more heavily on China's financial and defense industry backing
15:10and also has increased combined military exercises with China to signal shared
15:16fortitude against the United States and U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
15:21With Iran, Russia has also expanded financial ties to mitigate sanctions.
15:26Iran has become a critical military supplier to Russia, especially of UAVs,
15:31in exchange for Russian technical support for Iranian weapons, intelligence, and advanced
15:36cyber capabilities. In conclusion, the threats that we see to U.S. national security are both
15:42complex and multifaceted and put the lives, safety, and well-being of the American people at serious
15:48risk. As the heads of the American people's intelligence community, we will continue to
15:54provide the President, Congress, and our warfighters with timely, unbiased, relevant
15:59intelligence to keep the United States secure, free, prosperous, and at peace. To the American
16:07people specifically, our intelligence community exists to serve you and to ensure your safety,
16:12security, and freedom. Thank you.
16:15Thank you, Director Gabbard. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, the Annual Threat Assessment