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00:00I'd like to bring in France 24's Philip Turrell, as well as Dafydd Townley, part of the University
00:05of Portsmouth's military education team.
00:10Thank you both for joining us on the programme today.
00:12Dafydd, let me start with you.
00:13Do we have any more clarity from what exactly this coalition of the willing can offer Ukraine?
00:19And look, there's a focus around two things.
00:27First of all, I think they're trying to find a number of different divergent routes in
00:32terms of enforcing this or trying to push and pressure Russia into some kind of a treaty
00:40or at least signing the agree treaty.
00:42But secondly, I think they're also then trying to find different ways in which they can assure
00:47Ukraine of its security once that treaty comes in place.
00:51The details are yet to be clear, and I think that's quite important.
00:56Stay with us, Dafydd, because I'd like to bring in France 24's international affairs
00:59editor Philip Turrell.
01:00Philip, a couple of days ago, we had both Ukraine and Russia who agreed to a partial
01:05ceasefire on maritime ceasefire, as well as a ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
01:12But then Moscow started to add strings to that, which would include the lifting of some
01:17sanctions.
01:18European leaders are worried about this.
01:20We had them actually speak earlier, saying now is not the time to lift sanctions, clearly
01:25warning the US not to do this right now.
01:28I think there are a couple of important aspects to this.
01:32The first one is listening to what Emmanuel Macron said, and then just now to Syria storm
01:37with the British prime minister.
01:40You can detect there is a certain amount of doubt in what the US is going to do next.
01:44The Kirstalmer saying President Trump definitely wants a peace deal with the Russians.
01:51He's been working towards that.
01:54But Emmanuel Macron saying we can only decide on what depends on us.
01:59We are not going to have to depend on the United States because we're not sure where
02:03that is going to go and what our relationship is going to be with the United States in in
02:08the future.
02:09We can't say that if the US doesn't join us, there won't be any peace.
02:13We have to work towards that independently.
02:16So I think there is a unanimous agreement amongst the Europeans that there can be no
02:20lifting of sanctions if there's going to be any pressure on the Russians.
02:24It's going to have to come from sanctions, because if it doesn't, then what the Europeans
02:29are trying to do to create this force here, this coalition of the willing, will more or
02:34less be dead in the water because the Russians are already warning that they're going to
02:38never.
02:39They're never going to accept that a force be deployed in Ukraine because it will be
02:44tantamount to being NATO and saying this could put Russia on a crash course directly with
02:49NATO if those forces are deployed there.
02:51One of the only levers that the European Union and the Europeans in general have right now
02:55is to say, well, we're going to keep those sanctions going.
02:59And it is not the time right now, despite the calls by Vladimir Putin and the Russian
03:03leadership for those sanctions to be lifted.
03:06David Townley, we have both Ukraine and Russia who have agreed to this maritime ceasefire
03:14and ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
03:16However, both sides seem to be blaming each other of violating the ceasefire.
03:21So we don't know if it's in effect.
03:23If it is in effect, who is monitoring it?
03:26Well, this is one of the issues that we currently have in the region, is that we have this war
03:33of disinformation between both sides to a certain extent.
03:36It's not just Russia that is trying to play this campaign out in the social media and
03:42in the press around the globe.
03:45They're both trying to gain international support.
03:49And I think Philip is quite right in respect that, you know, the only pressure that Europe
03:53has in terms of supporting Ukraine is through economic sanctions.
03:58Trump is very much supportive of a treaty.
04:02What sort of treaty?
04:03Now, we do know it has been mentioned that Russia determined that any sort of economic
04:10sanctions towards their energy supply are lifted as part of the peace agreement or ceasefire
04:18agreement over the Black Sea.
04:19I think that would be a significant mistake on Europe's part if they were to in any way
04:25endorse that.
04:27And I think, as Philip said, this is as much a message for the United States as it is for
04:33Ukraine and for Russia.
04:36It seems, Dafydd, that the U.S. doesn't want to get bogged down in Ukraine.
04:41We in fact have a shift that's been happening for the past few years to the Asia-Pacific.
04:45Today we have the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, who's actually in the Philippines.
04:52The U.S. genuinely, from what Steve Witkoff says, believes that Vladimir Putin wants to
04:58have peace in Ukraine.
05:00So what happens if the U.S. starts to really scale back its military aid to Kiev, stop
05:05sharing intelligence?
05:07Can Europe really fill that void?
05:09Well, we saw with the, shall we say, the pause in intelligence sharing that the United States
05:16had quite recently that it did have some impact on Ukraine's ability to continue its
05:25incursion into Russia.
05:29And that was obviously quite catastrophic in terms of a negotiated position.
05:34Can Europe, you know, can it completely substitute the support that the United States provides?
05:41I don't think so at the moment.
05:43I think long term that's something that they'll have to look at.
05:46It has the capability, but it also has to be able to secure its own borders as well.
05:51Each nation will have to do that.
05:53So I think, I don't think that they're in the position at the moment to do that.
05:58There needs to be whole scale investment in its defense infrastructure, every nation involved.
06:05And there's also, as well, there's still disagreement amongst the coalition or the willing in what
06:10terms of troop deployment in Ukraine actually looks like.
06:15Italy have said that they only want to have any troops in the region as part of the United
06:19Nations force, whereas we've heard from Macron and from Kirstane this afternoon that
06:25potentially that there could be some sort of policing system once the ceasefire is in
06:31place. But I think that that's still yet to be thrashed out as to be what the possibilities
06:36are.
06:37Philip, do you think that the United States and Europe will start playing ball together
06:44when it comes to bringing the war in Ukraine to an end?
06:46Because when it comes to this coalition of the willing, the US president has been kind
06:52of cold on it.
06:54Well, there are several unanswered questions, I think, even after these talks today in Paris,
06:59as far as this coalition of the willing is concerned.
07:00The first one is obviously Russia's refusal to let the coalition forces deploy in Ukraine.
07:07As I was just saying, this would lead to direct clashes between them and NATO countries, basically,
07:13because that's what they'd be deemed as being from.
07:16Second one is who is going to command the mission, which we were just talking about?
07:19And what will the mission be?
07:21What will they do on the ground?
07:23What will happen if the Russians do open fire on them?
07:25Will they be able to fire back?
07:27Will they be looking after protecting power installations?
07:31Which part of Ukraine will they be deployed in?
07:33That still needs to be clarified.
07:36The Europeans are not at the negotiating table in all of this.
07:39That's another big problem for Europe.
07:41Why aren't they in Saudi Arabia with the Americans, with the Russians, with the Ukrainians, discussing
07:46where this is all going to move forward?
07:47I mean, to be fair, they've tried to get invitations.
07:49They tried, but they still are not part of that.
07:50And I think the big key question here is, will the US provide that air support that
07:56is very badly needed to protect these ground forces if and when there is a ceasefire deal
08:01and they are deployed in Ukraine?
08:03We still haven't got the green light from President Trump for that either.
08:06So a lot of moving forward about this is what the force is going to look like.
08:10This is how we're working to create the force.
08:12This is the message.
08:13These are the messages coming out from Paris this afternoon from Emmanuel Macron on one
08:16side, Keir Starmer on the other.
08:18But the underlying questions, we still don't have the answers from either President Trump
08:23and above all from Vladimir Putin about whether he's actually willing to come to the negotiating
08:27table in the long run to reach some kind of peace deal.
08:30David Townley, can any of this work without US air power?
08:38It's difficult.
08:39It's difficult to see it working without US support at all, air power or not.
08:44I think that what happens is if who enforces the ceasefire, who is there to hold any perpetrators,
08:56if you want to put it that way, to account, I think that that would only be possible if
09:02the United States is involved.
09:04Sorry.
09:05Yes, go on.
09:06I was just going to jump in there because we, of course, talk about this being a peacekeeping
09:11mission.
09:12Obviously, in the past 24 hours or so, the language has changed.
09:15Ukraine says the peacekeepers need to be able to engage in combat.
09:19This is clearly language that Russia is not going to accept.
09:22No, absolutely.
09:23But even if it was to get through the United Nations Security Council, for example, and
09:28be a peacekeeping force, there would be rules of engagement for that peacekeeping force
09:32in which it could be able to, willing to defend itself and to maintain that peace.
09:37But you're absolutely right.
09:40Russia has said under no circumstances will it allow any sort of neo-NATO force within
09:45the region to hold that.
09:47So it seems difficult that this coalition of the willing will manifest in a military
09:54manner.
09:55It would be more likely to be support for Ukraine in terms of the continuation of ordnance,
10:02ammunition, supplies, logistics, for example, and intelligence.
10:07That is probably the military way that will be accepted by Russia, although probably not
10:14what Ukraine wants.
10:15I don't mean to be naive here, but has no one suggested a UN peacekeeping force?
10:19Well, how do you get that through the United Nations Security Council when Russia has its
10:23right to a veto?
10:26And obviously, would the United States support that as well?
10:30As Philip just mentioned, there's so many questions about this that still have to be
10:35answered in terms of where the United States stands on this.
10:39We've seen from the signal messages that were going on between the National Security Committee
10:46over the last few days that there seemed to be a certain amount of disdain amongst certain
10:51individuals towards Europe.
10:53And so I would think that the United States under this administration would be exceptionally
10:58happy to be able to wipe its hands off any involvement in European security whatsoever.
11:04Indeed, because, Philip, there has been this, well, we know it was public after what JD
11:09Vance had to say at the Munich Security Conference, this disdain towards Europe.
11:14It's not just public, but it's also in private as well after we saw those signal text messages.
11:19A lot of disdain towards Europe, calling their behavior pathetic, which has gone down, I
11:25think, pretty badly in European capitals, although the reaction has been very muted
11:32at the moment because I think that no one really wants to fall out with the United States.
11:36The problem here is, I think, that what we've seen today in these talks is the fact that
11:43from Vladimir Zelensky, from Emmanuel Macron, from Keir Starmer, the three we've heard from
11:48this afternoon, they all agree that Russia is not playing ball.
11:51They all say that Russia is not a country that you can negotiate and trust when it comes
11:56to wanting to move forward to sign a ceasefire agreement.
11:59Billy busting was the term used by Keir Starmer, saying they're not taking this seriously.
12:03On the other hand, you have the United States where Donald Trump is trying to push this
12:07peace deal, moving towards Russia, trying to open the door to Russia to make Russia
12:13bring it back on board, to make it a partner with the United States, which is, I think,
12:18an anathema to most heads of state in Europe.
12:20So there's also a division there.
12:21And I think the other question that we don't know the answer to right now is what is going
12:25to happen when Donald Trump realizes that Russia doesn't want to play ball and Russia
12:29doesn't really want a ceasefire deal.
12:32Russia doesn't want a peace agreement.
12:33What Russia wants to do is to kick all this into the long grass and then push for time
12:38so that he can launch a new offensive in the spring to take even more areas of Ukraine.
12:43I think we will come to a point where Donald Trump is going to have to face the truth.
12:47There won't be a 24-hour agreement or an agreement in 24 hours or even in 100 days.
12:53Then he's going to have to tighten the thumbscrews on Vladimir Putin.
12:56Will he do it?
12:57Won't he do it?
12:58That is a question we can't answer right now.
12:59I think what the Europeans are trying to do is to up the ante, keep the pressure up, not
13:03only on the Russians, but also to a point on the United States to say, look, we are
13:08getting our act together.
13:09We are building up our military.
13:10We are proposing this coalition of the willing.
13:13Now the United States has got to play ball with us and it's got to come up with some
13:16kind of an agreement with the Russians so that we can move all of this forward.
13:21The final question to you.
13:22We know that the Europeans have been saying that sanctions have really put a dent in Moscow's
13:30ability in how they wage this war, but they have managed to wage this war for now three
13:35years now.
13:36They've managed to bypass sanctions and the economy has not been reduced to rubble like
13:40the former U.S., the ruble has not been reduced to rubble like the former U.S. President Joe
13:44Biden said it would.
13:45So at one point, what happens if the U.S. president starts lifting sanctions?
13:51Can the Europeans still keep the sanctions in place in the hopes that Moscow won't make
13:57further gains on the battlefield?
13:59Well, I think it depends which sanctions are lifted, of course.
14:03Now, if we're talking about access to international markets, then that would be entirely different
14:08in terms of, you know, being able to access the banking system and energy tariffs.
14:16I think that there are certain routes that the Europeans could continue, especially in
14:21terms of supplying of energy to its international partners, as were before the conflict started.
14:30These have obviously been severely affected.
14:33What we will see probably is a very, very limited attempt by Europe to impose international
14:41sanctions.
14:42But of course, if the United States is wholeheartedly supporting them in an effort to bring Russia
14:50into the fold, so to speak, remember, this is a Trump is a president that is very much
14:56transactional in the way that he does business.
14:59He's looking for something back.
15:01If there is a trade deal for him to benefit the United States, he will probably lift those
15:07sanctions.
15:08We've already seen Russia offer to provide minerals as an alternative to the Ukrainian
15:17deal.
15:18This is a very difficult and complex situation that European ministers are going to have
15:25to navigate very carefully.
15:27David Townley, thank you very much for joining us on the programme, as well as France 24's
15:32Philippe Turel.
15:33We will be bringing you Vladimir Zelensky's speech in the aftermath of that coalition
15:38of the willing summit wrapping up here in Paris.
15:40Stay tuned.