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00:00Because if you take a look at the styles make fights, right?
00:01We get into the Kentucky and Tennessee game, which again, as
00:03we stated, will be at Lucas Oil Stadium.
00:05That opening number, minus four and a half towards Tennessee
00:08at the FanDuel Sportsbook here in New Jersey, still sits here
00:10today, as well as the other outlets also reporting at minus
00:13four and a half.
00:14The total, 145 and a half, that's been back down to 144
00:18and a half, and we'll see over the next couple days if that
00:20does change.
00:20Keep in mind, this is a 7-39 start here on Friday night.
00:24If we look at the advantages that each one of these teams
00:27have, the one thing we do know is, theoretically, Tennessee
00:29is a very good defense.
00:30You take a look at Ken Palm's numbers, third overall in
00:32efficiency in college basketball.
00:34Kentucky, lagging a little bit, but still in the top 50.
00:37Both of these offenses are actually very good.
00:39We usually point towards Kentucky because it looks like
00:41a much more fluid offense as you play there, more offensive
00:44players, and their calling card isn't defense overall.
00:46But both of these teams, Mark, love the three-point shot.
00:49You take a look at Nakingham, they're both decent at it.
00:51Volume-wise, they like to shoot it. Defensively, their
00:54footprint, Mark, they'll let you shoot it.
00:56So for me, I look at that 145 and a half, already down to
00:59144 and a half, and say to myself, we're playing in a huge
01:02basketball arena. And also keep in mind, it changes for me
01:04too, Mark. Sweet 16, you play in that gym one time, you say,
01:07okay, now we're used to the shooting lines, we won, we'll
01:10be more comfortable in game number two. That first half
01:12of the first game, a little bit leery for me. Maybe an auto
01:15bet to the under there in the first half of that game.
01:19Yeah, I already fired on an under in Ole Miss at Michigan
01:23State in the first half, for some of those same reasons
01:26that you talked about. But I also want to point out when
01:28it comes to Tennessee and Kentucky, do some comparative
01:32line analysis here. Obviously, as I mentioned earlier,
01:35Kentucky won both regular season matchups. The first
01:37matchup that they played was in Knoxville, and Tennessee
01:42was a nine and a half point favorite in that game. They
01:44lost outright by five. The second game in Lexington,
01:47Kentucky was a three and a half point home dog. Now again,
01:51you get a four and a half point line for in favor of Tennessee.
01:54So, you know, we're jumping around a little bit. And again,
01:57that last matchup between those two teams was all the way
02:00back in the beginning of February. It's been almost, you
02:03know, two months since they've last played. So I think
02:06they're different teams at this point in time. But in both
02:09of these matchups here, the thing that really let Tennessee
02:11down was the fact that Kentucky shot 50% in both of those
02:15games. And Tennessee's defense was not really great. And
02:19that's part of the problem. I mean, Tennessee's defense
02:21has to really be able to keep Kentucky at bay. It's one
02:25of those things where I look at it. If they can't do it
02:27early, they can't do it late. I would look at Tennessee
02:30to try to get out in front and take a first half leader.
02:34Maybe a Tennessee first half minus two and a half or minus
02:36two. If you get a very favorable number like that, where
02:38all they got to do is lead by a bucket. If they're not
02:41leading at halftime, I don't like Tennessee's ability to
02:44all of a sudden in the second half play clamped down
02:46defense and stop Kentucky from scoring.