El Gran Fraude del Calentamiento Global (Doblado al español y sin censura)
El Gran Fraude del Calentamiento Global (Doblado al español y sin censura)
El Gran Fraude del Calentamiento Global (Doblado al español y sin censura)
El Gran Fraude del Calentamiento Global (Doblado al español y sin censura)
El Gran Fraude del Calentamiento Global (Doblado al español y sin censura)
Category
😹
FunTranscript
00:00:00We imagine that we live in an age of reason.
00:00:28The global warming alarm is dressed up as science, but it's not science, it's propaganda.
00:00:35There's no direct evidence which links 20th century global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
00:00:41We're just being told lies, that's what it comes down to.
00:00:45You can't say that CO2 will drive climate, it certainly never did in the past.
00:00:49If the CO2 increases in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, then the temperature will go up.
00:00:55But the ice core record shows exactly the opposite.
00:00:58So the fundamental assumption, the most fundamental assumption of the whole theory of climate change
00:01:05due to humans is shown to be wrong.
00:01:08The whole thing stinks.
00:01:10The global warming caused by man is no longer just a theory about the climate,
00:01:14it is one of the moral and political principles of our era.
00:01:18Its defenders say that the debate is over.
00:01:20Any criticism, no matter how rigorously scientific it is, is illegitimate, or even worse, dangerous.
00:01:29But in this documentary we will show you that there is nothing abnormal in the current temperatures,
00:01:35that the climate of the earth is always changing,
00:01:37and that scientific evidence does not show that the climate depends on carbon dioxide,
00:01:42whether it comes from the human being or not.
00:01:52In any case, they are telling you that the global warming caused by man is more than demonstrated.
00:01:57But they are telling you lies.
00:02:15When they say we don't believe in global warming, I answer them,
00:02:19no, I believe in global warming, but I don't believe that the CO2 we produce is causing it.
00:02:23If they had asked me a year or two ago, why?
00:02:26Because just like everyone else in the world, I have heard
00:02:28every day the news about the global warming caused by man.
00:02:53The prime minister is back from his holidays, unrepentant and unembarrassed about yet another long haul destination.
00:03:24If we look at the climate from a geological point of view, we would never think that CO2 is one of its determining factors.
00:03:32None of the great climate changes of the last thousand years can be explained in relation to CO2.
00:03:40You can't say that CO2 determines the climate, it has never done so in the past.
00:03:46I have often heard that thousands of scientists have reached a consensus on global warming,
00:03:50and that the human being is causing a climate change.
00:03:53I am a scientist, and like me, there are many others who simply believe that that is not true.
00:04:03The global warming caused by man is not a normal scientific theory.
00:04:07It is backed by a politically influential UN body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.
00:04:14The IPCC, like any UN body, is political. Its final conclusions are politically driven.
00:04:26It is claimed that the IPCC is made up of the 1,500 or 2,500 most important scientists in the world.
00:04:32But when you look at their biographies, you see that that is not true.
00:04:36A good number of them are not scientists.
00:04:41And to build the number of 2,500, they have to start to recruit people and scientists from the government,
00:04:47and so on, anyone who ever comes to them.
00:04:50And none of them are asked to agree.
00:04:53Many of them disagree.
00:04:55Those people who are not specialists, who don't agree with the conclusions,
00:05:00and I know a few, maybe even a number that I know of,
00:05:03they simply put on the list to become part of these 2,500 world's top scientists.
00:05:10People have decided you have to convince other people
00:05:13that since no scientist disagrees, you shouldn't disagree either.
00:05:17But whenever you hear that in science, that's pure propaganda.
00:05:30See, I don't even like to call it the environmental movement
00:05:33because it really is a political activist movement
00:05:35and they have become hugely influential at a global level.
00:05:40This is the story of how an entire area of science has been distorted.
00:05:45Climate scientists need there to be a problem in order to get pensions.
00:05:50We have a vested interest in creating panic
00:05:53because then money will flow to climate science.
00:05:57There's one thing you shouldn't say, and that is, this might not be a problem.
00:06:04It is the story of how a political campaign turned into a bureaucratic bandwagon.
00:06:10The fact of the matter is that tens of thousands of jobs
00:06:13depend on global warming right now.
00:06:15It's a big business.
00:06:19It's become a great industry in itself.
00:06:23And if the whole global warming farrago collapsed,
00:06:27there'd be an awful lot of people out of jobs and looking for work.
00:06:34This is a story of censorship and intimidation.
00:06:38I have seen and heard their spitting fury at anybody
00:06:44who might disagree with them, which is not the scientific way.
00:06:49It is a story about Westerners invoking the threat of climatic disaster
00:06:54to hinder vital industrial progress in the developing world.
00:06:59The clear thing that emerges from the whole environmental debate
00:07:04is the point that there's somebody keen to kill the African dream,
00:07:09and the African dream is to develop.
00:07:12The environmental movement has evolved into the strongest force there is
00:07:18for preventing development in the developing countries.
00:07:23The global warming story is a cautionary tale
00:07:26of how a media scare became the defining idea of a generation.
00:07:31I'm not the first or the last person to say
00:07:34that this whole global warming business is like a religion,
00:07:38and people who disagree are heretics.
00:07:42I'm a heretic.
00:07:45The producers of this documentary are heretics.
00:07:53In 2005, a House of Lords inquiry was set up
00:07:57to examine the scientific evidence of man-made global warming.
00:08:01A leading figure in that inquiry was Lord Lawson of Blaby,
00:08:05who, as Chancellor of the Exchequer in the 1980s,
00:08:08was the first politician to commit government money
00:08:11to global warming research.
00:08:14We had a very, very thorough inquiry, took evidence,
00:08:19from a whole lot of people, experts in this area,
00:08:22and produced a report.
00:08:24What surprised me was to discover
00:08:26how weak and uncertain the science was.
00:08:29In fact, there are more and more thoughtful people,
00:08:33some of them a little bit frightened to come out in the open,
00:08:37but who quietly, privately, and some of them publicly,
00:08:40are saying, hang on, wait a minute, this simply doesn't add up.
00:08:45They tell us that we should worry
00:08:47because the climate of the Earth is changing.
00:08:50But the climate of the Earth is always changing.
00:08:54In the long history of our planet,
00:08:56there have been countless periods
00:08:58in which it was colder and hotter than today.
00:09:01When much of the world was covered by tropical forests
00:09:04or else vast ice sheets.
00:09:07The climate has always changed, and it has done so without our help.
00:09:12The current trend in global warming
00:09:14dates back about 200 years,
00:09:16at the end of a very cold period in the history of the Earth.
00:09:19Climatologists refer to this time
00:09:21as the Little Ice Age.
00:09:23In the 14th century, Europe entered the Little Ice Age,
00:09:27and in the harshest, toughest winters of that era,
00:09:31rivers like the Thames or the Ebro,
00:09:33froze over completely.
00:09:35And when we look back,
00:09:38the Thames would freeze over.
00:09:40And where we would look for evidence of this
00:09:43are the old illustrations and prints
00:09:46and pictures of Old Father Thames,
00:09:49because during the hardest and toughest winters
00:09:52of that Little Ice Age,
00:09:54the Thames would freeze over.
00:09:57And there were wonderful ice fairs held on the Thames,
00:10:01skating, and people actually selling things on the ice.
00:10:08Before the Little Ice Age,
00:10:10there was a warm and pleasant time
00:10:12when temperatures were higher than they are today.
00:10:15A time that climatologists define
00:10:17as the medieval warm period.
00:10:19In Europe, this was the era
00:10:21of the great cathedral builders.
00:10:26It's important for people to know
00:10:28that climate created a very different lifestyle
00:10:31in the medieval period.
00:10:34We have this view today
00:10:36that warming is going to have apocalyptic consequences.
00:10:39In fact, whenever we describe this warm period,
00:10:42we tend to associate it with riches.
00:10:51A time when, according to Chaucer,
00:10:53vineyards flourished even in the north of England.
00:10:56All over the city of London,
00:10:58there are little memories of the vineyards
00:11:01that grew in the medieval period.
00:11:04So this was a wonderfully rich time.
00:11:07And this little church, in a sense,
00:11:09symbolizes it because it comes from a period of great wealth.
00:11:14If we go back beyond the medieval warm period,
00:11:17we find other times of heat,
00:11:19including a very long one during the Stone Age
00:11:22that geologists know as the maximum holocene,
00:11:25when temperatures were noticeably higher than they are today
00:11:29for more than three millennia.
00:11:32If we go back 8,000 years in the holocene period,
00:11:35our current interglacial,
00:11:37it was much warmer than it is today.
00:11:40Now, the polar bears obviously survived that period.
00:11:43They're with us today.
00:11:45They're very adaptable.
00:11:47And these warm periods in the past,
00:11:49what we call hypsothermals,
00:11:51posed no problem for them.
00:11:54Climate variations in the past were clearly natural.
00:11:57So why do we think it's different now?
00:12:01In the current alarm about global warming,
00:12:04the culprit is industrial society.
00:12:07Thanks to modern industry,
00:12:09luxuries once enjoyed exclusively by the rich
00:12:12are now available in abundance to ordinary people.
00:12:15Novel technologies have made life easier and richer.
00:12:18Modern transport and communications
00:12:20have made the world seem less foreign and distant.
00:12:23Industrial progress has changed our lives.
00:12:26But has it also changed the climate?
00:12:30According to the theory of global warming caused by man,
00:12:33the carbon dioxide produced by industry
00:12:35has caused an increase in temperatures.
00:12:37But what proof do we have that it's true?
00:12:40Anyone who goes around and says
00:12:42that carbon dioxide is responsible
00:12:44for most of the warming of the 20th century
00:12:47hasn't even looked at the basic numbers.
00:12:53At the beginning of the 20th century,
00:12:55much of the world was still pre-industrial.
00:12:59There was no electricity and even less cars.
00:13:02The industry was quite primitive,
00:13:04restricted to a few countries
00:13:06and drowned by economic depression.
00:13:08But after World War II,
00:13:10things changed.
00:13:12Products like fridges, washing machines,
00:13:14televisions and cars
00:13:16began to be mass-produced for the international market.
00:13:19Historians call this global explosion
00:13:21of industrial activity
00:13:23the post-war economic boom.
00:13:25What does this have to do with temperature?
00:13:28In the last 150 years,
00:13:30the temperature of the first decades of the 20th century,
00:13:33between 1905 and 1940,
00:13:35when industrial production was relatively small.
00:13:41After 1940, the world was shaking.
00:13:45This is a record of temperatures
00:13:47in the Arctic during the 20th century.
00:13:49During the post-war economic boom,
00:13:51the temperature dropped sharply.
00:13:54Ironically, it did not rise again
00:13:56until the World Economic Recession of the 1970s.
00:14:02CO2 began to increase exponentially
00:14:05in about 1940.
00:14:08But the temperature actually began to decrease
00:14:11in 1940,
00:14:13and continued to grow until 1975.
00:14:16So this is the opposite of a rise.
00:14:20When the CO2 increases rapidly,
00:14:23but yet the temperature decreases,
00:14:25then we cannot say that
00:14:27CO2 and the temperature go together.
00:14:30The temperature was significantly rising
00:14:32until 1940,
00:14:34when human CO2 production was relatively low.
00:14:37But then, in the post-war years,
00:14:39when industries and economies
00:14:41around the world began to develop
00:14:43and human CO2 production skyrocketed,
00:14:45the global temperature began to drop.
00:14:47In other words,
00:14:49the facts do not correspond to the theory.
00:14:52Just at a time when,
00:14:54after the Second World War,
00:14:56industry was booming,
00:14:58carbon dioxide was increasing,
00:15:00and yet the Earth was getting cooler
00:15:02and starting off scares
00:15:04of a coming ice age,
00:15:06it made absolutely no sense.
00:15:08It still doesn't make sense.
00:15:11Why do we suppose that carbon dioxide
00:15:13is responsible for our climate change?
00:15:18CO2 is just a small part
00:15:21of the atmosphere of the Earth.
00:15:23In fact, changes in the CO2 level
00:15:25of the atmosphere
00:15:27are measured in tens per million.
00:15:29The CO2 percentage
00:15:31among all the gases of the atmosphere,
00:15:33oxygen, nitrogen, argon,
00:15:35is only 0.054%.
00:15:37It is an incredibly small fraction
00:15:39and, of course,
00:15:41then we have to separate the part
00:15:43that supposedly the human being
00:15:45is adding,
00:15:47which is the source of all disputes
00:15:50The greenhouse effect
00:15:52is only a part
00:15:54of the Earth's climate system
00:15:56and CO2 is a relatively insignificant
00:15:58greenhouse gas.
00:16:00The atmosphere is made up
00:16:02of a multitude of gases.
00:16:04A small percentage of these gases
00:16:06are called greenhouse gases
00:16:08and of that small percentage,
00:16:1095% is water vapor,
00:16:12the most important greenhouse gas.
00:16:14Water vapor is a greenhouse gas,
00:16:16by far the most important greenhouse gas.
00:16:19CO2 is not just a secondary greenhouse gas.
00:16:21It is also clear
00:16:23that none of these gases
00:16:25are responsible for climate change.
00:16:29To demonstrate this,
00:16:31we must observe the sky
00:16:33or a part of the sky
00:16:35called the troposphere.
00:16:37If it's greenhouse warming,
00:16:39you get more warming
00:16:41in the middle of the troposphere
00:16:43about 10 or 12 kilometers
00:16:45from the atmosphere
00:16:48and they have to do
00:16:50with how the greenhouse effect works.
00:16:52The greenhouse effect works like this.
00:16:54The sun emits heat to the Earth.
00:16:56If it weren't for the greenhouse gases,
00:16:58this solar radiation would bounce
00:17:00into space,
00:17:02leaving the planet cold and uninhabitable.
00:17:04The greenhouse gases
00:17:06retain the heat
00:17:08in the Earth's troposphere
00:17:10a few kilometers from the surface.
00:17:12And it is here,
00:17:14according to the climate models,
00:17:17if they are the greenhouse gases,
00:17:19that cause warming.
00:17:21All the models,
00:17:23absolutely all,
00:17:25calculate that warming
00:17:27should be faster
00:17:29as it ascends from the surface
00:17:31to the atmosphere.
00:17:33In fact,
00:17:35the maximum temperature
00:17:37on the equator
00:17:39should be at an altitude
00:17:41of about 10 kilometers.
00:17:44A scientist
00:17:46who has dedicated himself
00:17:48to measuring the temperature
00:17:50of the Earth's atmosphere
00:17:52is Professor John Christie.
00:17:54In 1991, he was awarded
00:17:56the Medal of Scientific Exceptional Discovery
00:17:58awarded by NASA
00:18:00and in 1996 he received
00:18:02a special award
00:18:04from the American Meteorological Society
00:18:06for its fundamental advances
00:18:08in our climate monitoring.
00:18:10He was also an important collaborator
00:18:13There are two systems
00:18:15that scientists like Professor Christie
00:18:17use to measure the temperature
00:18:19of the atmosphere.
00:18:21Satellites and probe balloons.
00:18:25What we have been observing
00:18:27continuously is that
00:18:29in almost the entire planet
00:18:31most of the atmosphere
00:18:33is not warming as much
00:18:35as we see at the surface in this region
00:18:37and that's a real head scratch for us
00:18:39because the theory is pretty straightforward
00:18:42that if the surface heats up
00:18:44the atmosphere should heat up
00:18:46even faster
00:18:48but the rise in temperature
00:18:50of that part of the atmosphere
00:18:52is not very dramatic at all
00:18:54and really is not matched
00:18:56with the theories
00:18:58that climate models
00:19:00are expressing at this point.
00:19:02One of the problems
00:19:04that is plaguing the models
00:19:06is that they suggest
00:19:08that as it goes up
00:19:11and it's quite clear
00:19:13from two data sets
00:19:15not just satellite
00:19:17which everybody talks about
00:19:19but also probe balloons
00:19:21that you don't see that effect
00:19:23in fact it looks like
00:19:25the surface temperatures
00:19:27are slightly warmer
00:19:29than the atmosphere
00:19:31that's a big difference
00:19:33That data gives you
00:19:35a handle on the fact
00:19:37that what you're seeing
00:19:39is not related to the altitude
00:19:41in fact most of the time
00:19:43you've seen a decrease
00:19:45in the temperature as it goes up
00:19:47so we could say
00:19:49that the hypothesis
00:19:51of global warming
00:19:53caused by man
00:19:55is falsified by the evidence
00:19:57The recent global warming
00:19:59has taken place
00:20:01at the wrong time and place
00:20:03If CO2 was decisive
00:20:05in climate change
00:20:07it would have contributed
00:20:09during the economic boom
00:20:11of the post-war
00:20:13and there should be more
00:20:15The truth is regarded
00:20:17by many as the definitive
00:20:19popular...
00:20:21The first ice core survey
00:20:23took place in Vostok
00:20:25in the Antarctic
00:20:27What it found
00:20:29as Al Gore correctly points out
00:20:31was a clear correlation
00:20:33between carbon dioxide
00:20:36We're going back in time now
00:20:38650,000 years
00:20:40Here's what the temperature
00:20:42has been on our earth
00:20:44Now one thing that kind of
00:20:46jumps out at you is
00:20:48Did they ever fit together?
00:20:50Most ridiculous thing
00:20:52I've ever heard
00:20:54The relationship is actually
00:20:56very complicated
00:20:58but there is one relationship
00:21:00that is far more powerful
00:21:02than all the others
00:21:04The temperature gets warmer
00:21:06Al Gore says the relationship
00:21:08between temperature and CO2
00:21:10is complicated
00:21:12but he doesn't say what
00:21:14those complications are
00:21:16In fact there was something
00:21:18very important in the ice core
00:21:20data that he failed to mention
00:21:22Professor Ian Clarke is
00:21:24a prominent Arctic paleoclimatologist
00:21:26who studies the records
00:21:28of the Earth's temperature
00:21:30over the last hundreds
00:21:32of years
00:21:34He says that if we take
00:21:36an ice sample for example
00:21:38we can use isotopes
00:21:40to reconstruct the temperature
00:21:42but if we release the atmosphere
00:21:44that contains that sample
00:21:46we can see the CO2 levels
00:21:48Professor Clarke and others
00:21:50have discovered a link
00:21:52between carbon dioxide
00:21:54and temperature
00:21:56but this relationship
00:21:58is opposite
00:22:00We're looking at the ice core record
00:22:02from Vostok
00:22:04and in the red line
00:22:06we see the temperature
00:22:08going up from early time
00:22:10to later time
00:22:12but a very key example
00:22:14when we came out of a glaciation
00:22:16and we see the temperature
00:22:18going up and then we see
00:22:20the CO2 coming
00:22:22CO2 lags behind that increase
00:22:24it's got 800 years lag
00:22:26so temperature is leading
00:22:28We've done a lot of research
00:22:30on the ice cores
00:22:32and they all show the same thing
00:22:34temperatures go up and down
00:22:36and after hundreds of years
00:22:38carbon dioxide follows
00:22:40So obviously carbon dioxide
00:22:42does not cause warming
00:22:44in fact we can say
00:22:46that it's warming
00:22:48which increases carbon dioxide
00:22:50CO2 clearly cannot be
00:22:52causing temperature changes
00:22:54because it's a product of temperature
00:22:56following temperature changes
00:22:58The ice core record
00:23:00goes to the heart of this problem
00:23:02they say that if CO2
00:23:04as greenhouse gas
00:23:06increases in the atmosphere
00:23:08the temperature will go up
00:23:10but the ice core record
00:23:12shows exactly the opposite
00:23:14so the fundamental assumption
00:23:16the most fundamental assumption
00:23:18of the whole theory of global warming
00:23:20caused by man
00:23:22is shown to be wrong
00:23:24But how can it be
00:23:26that high temperatures
00:23:28increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere?
00:23:30To understand this
00:23:32we must first restate the obvious point
00:23:34that carbon dioxide is a natural gas
00:23:36produced by all living things
00:23:40Few things annoy me more
00:23:42than to hear people talking about carbon dioxide
00:23:44as being a pollutant
00:23:48You're made of carbon dioxide
00:23:50I'm made of carbon dioxide
00:23:52Carbon dioxide is how living things grow
00:23:54What's more
00:23:56humans are not the main source
00:23:58of carbon dioxide
00:24:00Humans produce a small fraction
00:24:02in the single digits
00:24:04percentage-wise of the CO2
00:24:06that is produced in the atmosphere
00:24:08Volcanoes
00:24:10produce more CO2 each year
00:24:12than all the factories and cars
00:24:14and planes and other sources of man-made carbon dioxide
00:24:16put together
00:24:18More still comes from animals
00:24:20and bacteria
00:24:22which produce about 150 gigatons of CO2 each year
00:24:24compared to a mere 6.5 gigatons
00:24:26from humans
00:24:28An even larger source of CO2
00:24:30is dying vegetation
00:24:32from falling leaves, for example, in the autumn
00:24:34But the biggest source of CO2
00:24:36by far
00:24:38is the oceans
00:24:44Carl Wunsch is professor of oceanography
00:24:46at MIT
00:24:48He was also visiting professor
00:24:50in oceanography at Harvard University
00:24:52and University College London
00:24:54and a senior visiting fellow
00:24:56in mathematics and physics
00:24:58at the University of Cambridge
00:25:00He is the author of four major textbooks
00:25:02on oceanography
00:25:18He already knows from his science book
00:25:20that the atmosphere and the oceans
00:25:22exchange CO2
00:25:24When the oceans heat up
00:25:26they release CO2 into the atmosphere
00:25:28and when they cool down again
00:25:30they take CO2
00:25:32and they store it
00:25:36But why is there a hundred years delay
00:25:38between a temperature change
00:25:40and a change in the amount of CO2
00:25:42that comes in or out of the sea?
00:25:45The reason is that the oceans
00:25:47are so large and deep
00:25:49that they literally take centuries
00:25:51to heat up and cool down
00:26:14This could mean that the climate change
00:26:16happened in a remote part of the ocean
00:26:18decades or hundreds of years ago
00:26:20whose effects are now beginning
00:26:22to show up in the North Atlantic
00:26:24The current warming began
00:26:26long before people had cars
00:26:28or electric lights
00:26:30In the past 150 years
00:26:32the temperature has risen just over
00:26:34half a degree Celsius
00:26:36But most of that rise occurred before 1940
00:26:38Since that time
00:26:40the temperature has fallen for four decades
00:26:42and risen for three
00:26:44There is no evidence at all
00:26:46from Earth's long climate history
00:26:48that carbon dioxide has ever
00:26:50determined global temperatures
00:26:52But if CO2 doesn't
00:26:54drive Earth's climate
00:26:56what does?
00:26:58The popular belief
00:27:00that carbon dioxide
00:27:02is causing climate change
00:27:04is opposed to a multitude
00:27:06of available scientific data
00:27:08data from probe balloons
00:27:10and satellites
00:27:12data from ice cores
00:27:14and historical temperature records
00:27:16But if CO2 doesn't
00:27:18determine the climate
00:27:20what does?
00:27:22What does it do?
00:27:24What does it do?
00:27:26Isn't it bizarre to think
00:27:28that we humans
00:27:30when we fill up the car
00:27:32when we turn on the lights
00:27:34that we are the ones
00:27:36that change the climate?
00:27:38Just look at the sky
00:27:40Look at that massive
00:27:42thing, the sun
00:27:44Even humans
00:27:46are less than 6.5 billion
00:27:48but we are nothing
00:27:50compared to that
00:27:52At the end of the 80s
00:27:54the polar physicist
00:27:56Piers Corbyn decided
00:27:58to try a revolutionary
00:28:00method to predict time
00:28:02Despite all the resources
00:28:04of the Institute of Meteorology
00:28:06Corbyn's new technique
00:28:08systematically gave
00:28:10more precise results
00:28:12It was praised by the international
00:28:14press as the superman of time
00:28:16and the secret of its success
00:28:18was in the sun
00:28:20Our solar technique
00:28:22to predict time
00:28:24has its origin in the study
00:28:26of sunspots
00:28:28and our desire to know
00:28:30when they would appear
00:28:32It was then that I realized
00:28:34that it was much more interesting
00:28:36to use the sun
00:28:38to predict time
00:28:40Today we know that sunspots
00:28:42are powerful magnetic fields
00:28:44that appear in moments
00:28:46of great solar activity
00:28:48But hundreds of years ago
00:28:50it would be hotter
00:28:58He observed that during the
00:29:00small age of ice
00:29:02there were barely visible sunspots
00:29:04It was a period of solar inactivity
00:29:06known as the mini-sun
00:29:08to predict time
00:29:12I decided to test it
00:29:14betting on time
00:29:16through William Hill
00:29:18The Institute of Meteorology
00:29:20said that it was going to be
00:29:22a normal forecast
00:29:24and I was making money
00:29:26for a month and another
00:29:28and another and another
00:29:30The Institute of Meteorology
00:29:32said that last winter
00:29:34was going to be exceptionally cold
00:29:36We said, no, what nonsense
00:29:38it's going to be a very normal winter
00:29:40and we specified when it was going
00:29:42to be colder, after Christmas
00:29:44and in February
00:29:46The Institute of Meteorology
00:29:48decided to put together
00:29:50the sunspot records
00:29:52during the 20th century
00:29:54and compare them with
00:29:56the temperature records
00:29:58What they discovered
00:30:00was an incredibly direct
00:30:02correlation between
00:30:04what happened in the sun
00:30:06and the changes in temperature
00:30:08in the earth
00:30:10Solar activity grew
00:30:12abruptly until 1940
00:30:14When we saw this correlation
00:30:16between the temperature
00:30:18and the solar activity
00:30:20or the cycles of the sunspots
00:30:22people said to us
00:30:24well, it could be just a coincidence
00:30:26So how do we prove
00:30:28that it wasn't a coincidence?
00:30:30Well, it's obvious that we had
00:30:32to prove it on a larger scale
00:30:34and at different times
00:30:36so we went back in time
00:30:40Professor Fritz Christiansen
00:30:42and his colleagues studied
00:30:44the astronomical records
00:30:46of the last 400 years
00:30:48to compare solar activity
00:30:50with temperature variations
00:30:52and once again they found
00:30:54that the variations in solar activity
00:30:56were closely linked
00:30:58to the changes in temperature
00:31:00in the earth
00:31:02Apparently it was the sun
00:31:04not carbon dioxide
00:31:06or any other factor
00:31:08that caused changes in the climate
00:31:10But scientists have come
00:31:12to the conclusion
00:31:14that the sun also
00:31:16indirectly affects us
00:31:18by regulating the formation
00:31:20of clouds
00:31:41When the particles coming down
00:31:43meet water vapor rising up
00:31:45from the sea, they form
00:31:47water droplets and make clouds
00:31:50But when the sun is more active
00:31:52and the solar wind is strong
00:31:54fewer particles get through
00:31:56and fewer clouds are formed
00:32:01Just how powerful this effect was
00:32:03became clear only recently
00:32:05when an astrophysicist
00:32:07Professor Neer Shaviv
00:32:09compared his own record
00:32:11of cloud forming cosmic rays
00:32:13with the temperature record
00:32:15created by a geologist
00:32:17Professor Jan Weitzer
00:32:19going back 600 million years
00:32:21What they found was that
00:32:23when cosmic rays went up
00:32:25the temperature went down
00:32:27When cosmic rays went down
00:32:29the temperature went up
00:32:31Clouds and the earth's climate
00:32:33were very closely linked
00:32:35to see how close you just
00:32:37put them one upon the other
00:32:39and it was just amazing
00:32:41Jan Weitzer looked at me and said
00:32:43we have very explosive data here
00:32:45I've never seen such
00:32:47vastly different records
00:32:49coming together so beautifully
00:32:51to show really what was happening
00:32:53over that long period of time
00:32:55The climate was controlled
00:32:57by the clouds
00:32:59The clouds were controlled
00:33:01by cosmic rays
00:33:03And the cosmic rays
00:33:05were controlled by the sun
00:33:07It all came down to the sun
00:33:13If you had X-rays in your eyes
00:33:15what appears to us
00:33:17simply as a yellow ball
00:33:19would appear like a raging tiger
00:33:29The sun is an incredibly
00:33:31violent beast
00:33:33and it's throwing out
00:33:35huge explosions
00:33:37and gas avalanches
00:33:41and an eternal solar wind
00:33:43that's forever rushing
00:33:45past the earth
00:33:47where in a certain sense
00:33:49we're inside the atmosphere
00:33:51of the sun
00:33:55The intensity of its magnetic field
00:33:57doubled during the 20th century
00:33:59In 2005, astrophysicists
00:34:01from Harvard University
00:34:03published the following graph
00:34:05in the official magazine
00:34:07of the American Geophysical Union
00:34:11The blue line represents
00:34:13the changes in temperature
00:34:15in the Arctic during the last 100 years
00:34:17and this is the increase
00:34:19in carbon dioxide during the same period
00:34:21The two lines don't have
00:34:23an obvious relationship
00:34:25But let's go back to the record
00:34:27This red line represents
00:34:29the variations in solar activity
00:34:31during the last century
00:34:33recorded independently
00:34:35by NASA scientists
00:34:37and the American National Ocean
00:34:39and Atmosphere Administration
00:34:43Solar activity over the last 100 years
00:34:45over the last several hundred years
00:34:47is closely related
00:34:49to sea ice
00:34:51and Arctic temperatures
00:34:53For many scientists
00:34:55the conclusion is undeniable
00:34:59The sun is driving climate change
00:35:01CO2 is irrelevant
00:35:05But if this is so
00:35:07why do they bombard us every day
00:35:09with news about global warming
00:35:11caused by man
00:35:13Why do so many people
00:35:15from the media and other areas
00:35:17see it as an unanswerable fact
00:35:19To understand the power
00:35:21of the theory of global warming
00:35:23we must first understand
00:35:25how it came about
00:35:31The weather satellite
00:35:33depicts a planet that grieves
00:35:35for its lost harvests
00:35:37The weather satellite
00:35:39depicts a planet that grieves
00:35:41for its lost harvests
00:35:43The weather satellite
00:35:45depicts a planet that grieves
00:35:47for its lost harvests
00:35:49Again and again the news reels
00:35:51have been showing us
00:35:53disasters of the weather
00:35:55The American Midwest
00:35:57suffered its worst drought
00:35:59since the 1930s
00:36:01and tornadoes were on the rampage
00:36:03And what was the cause
00:36:05of this natural disaster
00:36:07The producer of the program
00:36:09was the ex-director
00:36:11of the magazine
00:36:13New Scientist,
00:36:16Nature's ice
00:36:17makes us small
00:36:19After decades of low temperatures
00:36:21the experts warned us
00:36:23that a colder world
00:36:25would have catastrophic consequences
00:36:27There's the ever-present problem
00:36:29of the Great Ice Age
00:36:31Will a new ice age
00:36:33demand our lands?
00:36:35But from all this pessimism
00:36:37came a hopeful voice
00:36:39A Swedish scientist
00:36:41called Bert Bolling
00:36:43who wanted to help
00:36:45warm the planet
00:36:47although he was not sure
00:36:49We have a lot of oil
00:36:51and huge reserves of coal
00:36:53that we are burning
00:36:55at an increasingly high rate
00:36:57If we continue like this
00:36:59in about 50 years
00:37:01temperatures could be
00:37:03a few degrees higher
00:37:05than they are today
00:37:07but we are not sure
00:37:09We were also the first
00:37:11to talk about the dangers
00:37:13of carbon dioxide
00:37:15And I remember that
00:37:17the experts on both sides
00:37:19by top experts
00:37:21were indulging him
00:37:23in his fantasy
00:37:25In the 70s
00:37:27in the cold
00:37:29the eccentric theory
00:37:31of Bert Bolling
00:37:33about global warming
00:37:35caused by man
00:37:37seemed absurd
00:37:39For Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher
00:37:41energy was a political problem
00:37:43In the early 70s
00:37:45the oil crisis
00:37:47had caused a global recession
00:37:49In the United Kingdom
00:37:51a devastating mining strike
00:37:53had caused several blackouts
00:37:55and the fall of the Conservative government
00:37:57Mrs. Thatcher decided
00:37:59that the same would not happen to her
00:38:05What we have seen in this country
00:38:07is the emergence
00:38:09of an organized revolutionary minority
00:38:15whose real objective
00:38:19is the destruction
00:38:21of the parliamentary democratic government
00:38:23The politicization
00:38:25of this subject
00:38:27started with Margaret Thatcher
00:38:29I remember
00:38:31that when I was Secretary
00:38:33of State of Energy
00:38:35she was already very interested
00:38:37in promoting nuclear energy
00:38:41Because she was concerned
00:38:43about the security of energy
00:38:45and she did not trust the Middle East
00:38:47or the National Union of Miners
00:38:49that is, she did not trust
00:38:51oil or coal
00:38:53she thought we had to
00:38:55boost nuclear energy
00:38:57And when the climate change
00:38:59and global warming started
00:39:01she thought, wow, this is great
00:39:03because it does not emit carbon dioxide
00:39:05another argument
00:39:07in favor of nuclear energy
00:39:09and that is what she was saying
00:39:11has been misrepresented since then
00:39:13and so she said to the scientists
00:39:15she went to the Royal Society
00:39:17and she said
00:39:19there is money on the table
00:39:21for you to prove this
00:39:23so they took it away
00:39:25and they proved it
00:39:27Inevitably, when politicians
00:39:29put their weight to their own side
00:39:31and identify with it
00:39:33money will flow
00:39:35that is how this works
00:39:37research, development
00:39:39and institutions
00:39:41started to grow inevitably
00:39:43when, let's say it this way
00:39:45they started to study the climate
00:39:47emphasizing the relationship
00:39:49between carbon dioxide
00:39:51and temperature
00:39:53In 1988, at the request of Mrs. Thatcher
00:39:55the British Institute of Meteorology
00:39:57created a special unit for climate models
00:39:59which was the basis of a new international committee
00:40:01called the Intergovernmental Panel
00:40:03on Climate Change
00:40:05or IPCC
00:40:07Their first big research
00:40:09predicted climate disasters
00:40:11as a result of global warming
00:40:15I remember
00:40:17when I went to the press conference
00:40:19I was surprised by two things
00:40:21first
00:40:23the simplicity and eloquence
00:40:25with which the message was transmitted
00:40:29and second
00:40:31the total disregard
00:40:33for all the previous climate science
00:40:35up to that time
00:40:37including one on the role of the sun
00:40:39which had been the subject
00:40:41of a major meeting
00:40:43at the Royal Society
00:40:45just a few months earlier
00:40:51But this new emphasis
00:40:53on carbon dioxide
00:40:55produced by man
00:40:57was Mrs. Thatcher's favorite
00:41:27and tried
00:41:29and sort of tied in with
00:41:31economic growth
00:41:33with transportation
00:41:35and cars
00:41:37with what we call civilization
00:41:39And there are forces
00:41:41in the environmental movement
00:41:43that are simply against economic growth
00:41:45They think that's bad
00:41:49It could be used to legitimize
00:41:51a whole suite of myths
00:41:53that already existed
00:41:55that are anti-growth
00:41:57anti-development
00:41:59and above all
00:42:01anti that great Satan
00:42:03the U.S.
00:42:05Patrick Moore is considered
00:42:07one of the most outstanding ecologists
00:42:09of his generation
00:42:11co-founder of Greenpeace
00:42:13The shift to climate
00:42:15began to be a fundamental issue
00:42:17for two very distinct reasons
00:42:19The first reason was
00:42:21that by the mid 80s
00:42:23it was very reasonable
00:42:25that the environmental movements
00:42:27were saying they should do
00:42:29And when the majority of people
00:42:31agree with you
00:42:33it's very hard to remain
00:42:35confrontational
00:42:37And so the only way
00:42:39to continue to remain anti-establishment
00:42:41was to adopt ever more extreme positions
00:42:43When I left Greenpeace
00:42:45it was in the midst of them
00:42:47opposing a campaign
00:42:49to ban chlorine worldwide
00:42:51So I mean, I'm not sure
00:42:53that's in our jurisdiction
00:42:55to be banning the whole element
00:42:57The other reason
00:42:59to be of the ecologist extremism
00:43:01was that world communism failed
00:43:03the wall came down
00:43:05and a lot of pacifists
00:43:07and political activists
00:43:09moved into ecologism
00:43:11bringing their neo-marxist theories
00:43:13with them
00:43:15and learned to use
00:43:17the green language
00:43:19rather than ecology or science
00:43:21Those who remained
00:43:23were somewhat disoriented
00:43:25by the manifest failure
00:43:27of socialism
00:43:29and even more so
00:43:31of communism
00:43:33So they were still
00:43:35as anti-capitalist as they were
00:43:37but they still needed
00:43:39a new disguise
00:43:41for their anti-capitalism
00:43:43And it was a kind of
00:43:45amazing alliance
00:43:47between Margaret Thatcher's right
00:43:49and the extreme left
00:43:51anti-capitalist and ecologist
00:43:57that created this kind of
00:43:59momentum
00:44:01behind a loony idea
00:44:05In the early 90s
00:44:07global warming caused by man
00:44:09was no longer an eccentric theory
00:44:11about the climate
00:44:13but a political campaign
00:44:15for more government subsidies
00:44:19Prior to Bush the father
00:44:21I think the local funding
00:44:23for climate science
00:44:25was somewhere around
00:44:27170 million dollars a year
00:44:29which is reasonable
00:44:31for an area of 60 million dollars a year
00:44:33and that figure multiplied
00:44:35up to 2 billion a year
00:44:37more than a factor of 10
00:44:41that changed a lot
00:44:45it gave rise to new jobs
00:44:47and attracted people
00:44:49who otherwise
00:44:51would not have been interested
00:44:53in that field
00:44:55so you developed whole countries
00:44:57whose only interest for the climate
00:44:59was that there was global warming
00:45:03If I wanted to do research
00:45:05on process or process
00:45:07let's say
00:45:09Sussex's squirrels
00:45:11what I would do
00:45:13from 1990 on
00:45:15I would write my blog application
00:45:17saying
00:45:19I want to investigate
00:45:21the behavior of Sussex's squirrels
00:45:23with special reference
00:45:25to the effects of global warming
00:45:27and that way I get my money
00:45:29and if I didn't mention
00:45:31global warming
00:45:33they wouldn't give me a subsidy
00:45:35There's really no question in my mind
00:45:37that the large amounts of money
00:45:39that have been fed into this
00:45:41small area of science
00:45:43have distorted the overall scientific effort
00:45:45We're all competing for
00:45:47subsidies
00:45:49and if your field
00:45:51is the cause
00:45:53of concern
00:45:55you have that much less work
00:45:57rationalizing why your field
00:45:59should be funded
00:46:11By the 1990s
00:46:13tens of billions of dollars
00:46:15of government funding
00:46:17in the US, UK and elsewhere
00:46:19were being diverted into research
00:46:21relating to global warming
00:46:41and the American meteorological society
00:46:45Climate models are only good
00:46:47in relation to the predictions
00:46:49they make
00:46:51and there are hundreds of predictions
00:46:53if one doesn't comply
00:46:55the whole model is discarded
00:47:11Prediction as to what the climate
00:47:13of the future will be can be far worse
00:47:15than none at all
00:47:17I'm afraid that our understanding
00:47:19of the complex weather machine
00:47:21is not yet good enough
00:47:23to make a reliable statement
00:47:25of the future
00:47:27All models assume
00:47:29that the CO2 produced by man
00:47:31is the most important cause
00:47:33of global warming
00:47:35more than the sun or the clouds
00:47:37The analogy I use is
00:47:39that the climate is not good
00:47:41so I'm going to go from the engine
00:47:43which is the sun
00:47:45I'm going to go from the transmission
00:47:47which is the water vapor
00:47:49and I'm going to focus on a spider
00:47:51which has the right rear wheel
00:47:53which is the CO2 produced by man
00:47:55Science is that bad
00:47:57If you haven't understood
00:47:59the whole of the climate system
00:48:01if you haven't analyzed
00:48:03all of its components
00:48:05the cosmic rays, the solar rays
00:48:07if you haven't got all that
00:48:09then your model isn't worth anything
00:48:11Climate predictions
00:48:13vary considerably
00:48:15These variations are produced
00:48:17by a subtle alteration
00:48:19of the assumptions
00:48:21on which the model is based
00:48:23The models are so complicated
00:48:25you can often adjust them
00:48:27in such a way that they do
00:48:29something very exciting
00:48:31I've worked with people
00:48:33who make models
00:48:35and just by changing a couple
00:48:37of mathematical parameters
00:48:39you can get anything
00:48:41You can make warmer and colder
00:48:43models depending on the changes
00:48:45Since all the models assume
00:48:47that man-made CO2 causes warming
00:48:49one obvious way to produce
00:48:51a more impressive forecast
00:48:53is to increase the amount
00:48:55of imagined man-made CO2
00:48:57going into the atmosphere
00:48:59We put an increase in carbon dioxide
00:49:01in them that is 1% per year
00:49:030.49% per year for the last 10 years
00:49:050.42% for the 10 years before that
00:49:07and 0.43% for the 10 years before that
00:49:09So the models have twice as much
00:49:11greenhouse warming radiation
00:49:13going in them
00:49:15as is known to be happening
00:49:17It shouldn't shock you
00:49:19that they predict more warming
00:49:21than is occurring
00:49:27Models predict what the temperature
00:49:29might be in 50 or 100 years time
00:49:31It is one of their peculiar features
00:49:33that long-range climate forecasts
00:49:35are only proved wrong
00:49:37long after people have forgotten about them
00:49:39As a result, there is a danger
00:49:41according to Professor Carl Wunsch
00:49:43that modelers will be less concerned
00:49:45in producing a forecast that is accurate
00:49:47than one that is interesting
00:49:49Even within the scientific community
00:49:51you see it's a problem
00:49:53If I run a complicated model
00:49:55and I do something to it
00:49:57like melt a lot of ice
00:49:59into the ocean
00:50:01and nothing happens
00:50:03it's not likely to get printed
00:50:05But if I run the same model
00:50:07and I adjust it in such a way
00:50:09that something dramatic happens
00:50:11to the ocean circulation
00:50:13like the heat transport turns off
00:50:15it will be published
00:50:17People will say this is very exciting
00:50:19It will even get picked up by the media
00:50:21So there is a bias
00:50:23There is a very powerful bias
00:50:25within the media
00:50:27within the science community itself
00:50:29toward results which are dramatizable
00:50:35The earth freezes over
00:50:37That's a much more interesting story
00:50:39than saying, well, you know
00:50:41it fluctuates around
00:50:43sometimes the mass flux goes up by 10%
00:50:45sometimes it goes down by 20%
00:50:47but eventually it comes back
00:50:49Well, you know, which would you
00:50:51do a story on?
00:50:53That's what it's about
00:50:55As an inexperienced journalist
00:50:57computer models seem impressive
00:50:59They usually offer incredible weather predictions
00:51:01applying science rigorously
00:51:03They also offer an endless
00:51:05number of spectacular stories for the media
00:51:11As a professional journalist
00:51:13what surprises me the most
00:51:15is that the most elementary principles
00:51:17of journalism seem to have been abandoned
00:51:19regarding this topic
00:51:25There's a whole new branch of journalism
00:51:27You've got a whole new generation
00:51:29of reporters
00:51:31environmental journalists
00:51:33Now, if you're an environmental journalist
00:51:35and the history of global warming
00:51:37goes in the trash can
00:51:39so does your job
00:51:43It really is that crude
00:51:47And the reporting has to get
00:51:49more and more hysterical
00:51:51because there are, unfortunately
00:51:53there are news editors
00:51:55who say, hey, you've been saying
00:51:57the same thing for five years
00:51:59and you have to answer
00:52:01No, but now it's much worse
00:52:03The sea level is going to go up
00:52:05by three meters next Tuesday
00:52:07They have to keep on
00:52:09creating more and more alarm
00:52:11and more and more alarm
00:52:13Today, it's normal that the fault
00:52:15of every storm or hurricane
00:52:17is caused by global warming
00:52:19but are there scientific evidence
00:52:21of this?
00:52:23This is pure propaganda
00:52:25Every textbook on meteorology
00:52:27is telling you
00:52:29that the main source
00:52:31of weather disturbances
00:52:33is the temperature difference
00:52:35between the tropics and the pole
00:52:37And we're told
00:52:39in a warmer world
00:52:41this difference will get less
00:52:43Now, that would tell you
00:52:45you'll have less storminess
00:52:47you'll have less variability
00:52:49and that is considered catastrophic
00:52:51So you're told the opposite
00:52:55Many times it is said
00:52:57that even a slight increase
00:52:59in global temperature
00:53:01could cause a catastrophic
00:53:03thaw of the poles
00:53:05But what does the climate
00:53:07history of the Earth tell us?
00:53:09We have a record of temperatures
00:53:11in Greenland that go back
00:53:13thousands of years
00:53:15Greenland has been much warmer
00:53:17yet it didn't have a massive
00:53:19thaw of the poles
00:53:21Even if we talk about something
00:53:23like the permafrost
00:53:25which is that layer of ice
00:53:27that is always frozen
00:53:29like the one in some forests
00:53:31in Russia
00:53:33we find that 7 or 8 thousand years ago
00:53:35it melted much more than
00:53:37it is melting today
00:53:39So we have again
00:53:41a historical pattern
00:53:43but the world didn't stop
00:53:45at the International Institute of Arctic Research
00:53:47in Alaska, the body that
00:53:49best studies the Arctic climate
00:53:51Professor Akasofu insists
00:53:53that the ice plates are
00:53:55all the time expanding
00:53:57and contracting naturally
00:54:01Nowadays
00:54:03sometimes the news comes out
00:54:05that a piece of ice
00:54:07has detached from the Antarctic continent
00:54:11This has always happened
00:54:13but now we have satellites
00:54:15that detect those pieces
00:54:17and that's why they become
00:54:19news
00:54:21These data from NASA's
00:54:23meteorological satellites
00:54:25show the enormous contractions
00:54:27and natural expansions of the ice
00:54:29of the poles during the 90s
00:54:33Every time they broadcast
00:54:35a program about global warming
00:54:37I see pieces of ice
00:54:39detaching from the glaciers
00:54:43but in reality
00:54:45the ice is always moving
00:54:49In the news
00:54:51images of the Arctic ice
00:54:53often appear crumbling
00:54:55What they don't say is that
00:54:57this event is as normal
00:54:59as the fall of the leaves in autumn
00:55:03They ask me
00:55:05if I have seen the pieces of ice
00:55:07detaching from the glacier
00:55:09Yes, of course
00:55:11It happens every year
00:55:13The press comes here
00:55:15to see the consequences
00:55:17of the climate disaster
00:55:19but I tell them that it doesn't exist
00:55:27Nowadays it is normal
00:55:29to blame the climate
00:55:31for changes in sea levels
00:55:33but is this scientific?
00:55:35In the whole world
00:55:37changes in sea levels
00:55:39we call local factors
00:55:41or how is the Earth
00:55:43in relation to the sea
00:55:45which by the way
00:55:47has more to do with changes in the Earth
00:55:49than with changes in the sea
00:55:51and the eustatic factors
00:55:53which are the global changes
00:55:55in the sea level
00:55:57and which are due to the thermal
00:55:59expansions of the oceans
00:56:01not that the poles melt
00:56:03and start to detect these changes
00:56:05would take a long time
00:56:07but if it happened last year
00:56:09that means that something changed
00:56:11in the atmosphere last year
00:56:13and this is not necessarily true at all
00:56:15in fact it's actually quite unlikely
00:56:17because it can take hundreds
00:56:19to thousands of years
00:56:21for the deep ocean
00:56:23to respond to forces
00:56:25and changes that are taking place
00:56:27at the surface
00:56:29It has also been said
00:56:31that even a slight increase in temperature
00:56:33could lead to diseases
00:56:35but is this true?
00:56:37Professor Paul Reiter
00:56:39from the Pasteur Institute in Paris
00:56:41is recognized as one of the world's
00:56:43most important experts in malaria
00:56:45and other tropical diseases
00:56:47He is a member of the advisory committee
00:56:49of the World Health Organization
00:56:51He was president of the American Committee
00:56:53of Medical Entomology
00:56:55and an important collaborator
00:56:57in the medical section
00:56:59of the National American Evaluation
00:57:01on the possible consequences
00:57:03of malaria
00:57:07As Professor Reiter is eager to point out
00:57:09mosquitoes thrive
00:57:11in very cold temperatures
00:57:15Mosquitoes are not
00:57:17a specific tropical species
00:57:19People realize that the temperate regions
00:57:21of the Arctic are in fact
00:57:23mosquitoes are extremely abundant
00:57:25in the Arctic
00:57:27The most devastating malaria epidemic
00:57:29was in the Soviet Union
00:57:31There were something like
00:57:3313 million cases a year
00:57:35and something like 600,000 deaths
00:57:37It was a tremendous catastrophe
00:57:39that reached up to the Arctic Circle
00:57:41In Arkhangelsk
00:57:43there were 30,000 cases
00:57:45and about 10,000 deaths
00:57:47So it's not a tropical disease
00:57:49But these people
00:57:51have been in the global warming
00:57:53inventing the idea
00:57:55that malaria will move northwards
00:57:57Climate scare stories
00:57:59cannot be blamed solely
00:58:01on sloppy or biased journalism
00:58:13On the spread of malaria
00:58:15the IPCC warns us that
00:58:25According to Professor Reiter
00:58:27I was horrified to read
00:58:29the second and third assessment reports
00:58:31because they contained
00:58:33so much misinformation
00:58:35without any kind of
00:58:37recourse of real scientific literature
00:58:39to the literature by
00:58:41specialists in those fields
00:58:47In a letter
00:58:49to the Wall Street Journal
00:58:51Professor Frederic Shaith
00:58:53former president of the American Academy of Sciences
00:58:55said that the IPCC factors
00:58:57had censored the comments
00:58:59of the scientists
00:59:01He said literally
00:59:03This report is not the approved version
00:59:05by the scientific collaborators
00:59:07At least 15 key sections
00:59:09of the scientific part
00:59:11had been eliminated
00:59:13including some like
00:59:15None of the studies mentioned
00:59:17clearly show that we can
00:59:19attribute the observed climate changes
00:59:21to the increase of greenhouse gases
00:59:23to the actions of the human being
00:59:27Professor Shaith concluded
00:59:29I have never been a witness
00:59:31to such a worrying corruption
00:59:33of the IPCC
00:59:35He denied having eliminated
00:59:37certain sections
00:59:41When I resigned from the IPCC
00:59:43I thought that was the end
00:59:45but when I saw the final draft
00:59:47my name was still there
00:59:49so I asked for it to be removed
00:59:51They told me that I had collaborated
00:59:53and that my name had to appear
00:59:55and I said no, I haven't collaborated
00:59:57because they haven't listened
00:59:59to anything I've said
01:00:01So in the end it was a good fight
01:00:03but finally when I threatened them
01:00:05with legal action
01:00:07they removed my name
01:00:09I think this happens a lot
01:00:11those specialists who are not
01:00:13in agreement with the conclusions
01:00:15and I know a few
01:00:17they simply appear on the list
01:00:19of the world's best scientists
01:00:21Research relating to man-made
01:00:23global warming is now one of the best
01:00:25funded areas of science
01:00:27The US government alone spends
01:00:29more than 4 billion dollars a year
01:00:31According to NASA climatologist
01:00:33Roy Spencer, scientists who speak out
01:00:35against man-made global warming
01:00:37have a lot to lose
01:00:39It's generally harder to get
01:00:41research proposals funded
01:00:43because of the stands that we've
01:00:45taken publicly and you'll find
01:00:47that's because it does cut into
01:00:49their research funding
01:00:51It is a common prejudice that scientists
01:00:53who do not agree with the theory
01:00:55of man-made global warming
01:00:57must be being paid by private industry
01:00:59to tell lies
01:01:01I get it all the time
01:01:03You must be in the pay of the multinationals
01:01:05Sadly, like most of the scientists
01:01:07you'll talk to, I haven't seen a penny
01:01:09from the multinationals
01:01:11I'm always accused of being paid
01:01:13by the oil and gas companies
01:01:15If they actually would pay me, then I could
01:01:17afford their product
01:01:19Whenever anybody says that I'm in the pay
01:01:21of an oil company, I say my bank manager
01:01:23would wish
01:01:27There is almost no private sector investment
01:01:29in climatology, and yet
01:01:31to be involved in any research project
01:01:33which involves an industry grant
01:01:35no matter how small, can spell ruin
01:01:37to a scientist's reputation
01:01:39Modern technology fuelled by greenhouse gases
01:01:41Patrick Michaels
01:01:43is Professor of Environmental Sciences
01:01:45at the University of Virginia
01:01:47He was Chair of the Committee on Applied Climatology
01:01:49at the American Meteorological Society
01:01:51President of the American Association
01:01:53of State Climatologists
01:01:55the author of three books on meteorology
01:01:57and an author and reviewer
01:01:59on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel
01:02:01on Climate Change
01:02:03But when he conducted research
01:02:05which was part funded by the coal industry
01:02:07he found himself among those
01:02:09who would attack from climate campaigners
01:02:15British-based corporations
01:02:17are some of the worst
01:02:19climate criminals on the planet
01:02:21Shell is based
01:02:23in the UK, right here in London
01:02:25We have the right and the duty
01:02:27to take it back into public ownership
01:02:29dismantle it, break it up
01:02:31and send its managers to rehabilitation training
01:02:33But reasoned debate
01:02:35is not the only casualty
01:02:37of a global warming alarm
01:02:39As international public policy
01:02:41bears down on industrial emissions of carbon dioxide
01:02:43the developing world
01:02:45is coming under intense pressure
01:02:47not to develop
01:02:57I'm no expert on climate change
01:02:59I'm no scientist
01:03:01And what I'm going to say next is a great big turn off
01:03:03It's just that
01:03:05anything you don't need
01:03:07you're not using
01:03:09it's easier than you think
01:03:11to make a difference
01:03:35The prospect of man-made climate change
01:03:37from how to promote solar panels
01:03:39in Africa
01:03:41to the relationship between global warming and sexism
01:03:43The number of delegates
01:03:45exceeds 6,000
01:03:51The billions of dollars invested in climate science
01:03:53means that a huge extension
01:03:55of people depend upon those dollars
01:03:57and they will want to see that
01:03:59carefully, happens in every bureaucracy
01:04:01Where I live
01:04:03we have
01:04:05a local council
01:04:07global warming officer
01:04:09There's a huge
01:04:11tale out there
01:04:13of people
01:04:15who have, in one way or another
01:04:17been recruited
01:04:19to join this particular bandwagon
01:04:23If someone stands up and says
01:04:25Hey, wait a minute
01:04:27let's look at this thing in a rational way
01:04:29and carefully
01:04:31and see how much
01:04:33he stands up
01:04:35they will be ostracized
01:04:37Scientists
01:04:39accustomed to the relative civility
01:04:41and obscurity of academic life
01:04:43suddenly find themselves
01:04:45publicly attacked
01:04:47if they dare to challenge
01:04:49the theory of man-made global warming
01:04:51vilified by campaign groups
01:04:53and even within their own universities
01:04:55There's an old English saying
01:04:57if you stand up to the diana
01:04:59it gets pretty difficult
01:05:01to be a healthy person
01:05:03you know death threats
01:05:05and all those sorts of things
01:05:07so I'm not doing it for my health
01:05:11These days
01:05:13if you are skeptical about climate change
01:05:15it's as if you are
01:05:17a holocaust denier
01:05:21The environmental movement
01:05:23really is a political activist movement
01:05:25and they have become
01:05:27enormously influential
01:05:29around the world
01:05:33and every politician
01:05:35is aware of that
01:05:37whether you are on the left, the middle or the right
01:05:39you have to pay tribute to the environment
01:05:43The global warming campaign
01:05:45has achieved a great victory
01:05:47The US government
01:05:49which was a bastion of resistance
01:05:51has succumbed
01:05:53George Bush is now an ally
01:05:55Western governments
01:05:57have understood the need to reach international agreements
01:05:59to restrict industrial production
01:06:01in developed countries
01:06:03and development routes
01:06:05but at what price?
01:06:07Paul Driesen is an old environmental activist
01:06:09My big concern
01:06:11about global warming
01:06:13is that the policies
01:06:15that have been taken
01:06:17supposedly to prevent global warming
01:06:19are having a disastrous effect
01:06:21on the world's poorest
01:06:23Global warming campaigners say
01:06:25it does no harm to be on the safe side
01:06:27Even if the theory of man-made climate change
01:06:29is wrong, we should impose draconian
01:06:31measures to cut carbon emissions
01:06:33just in case
01:06:35They call this the precautionary principle
01:06:37The precautionary principle
01:06:39is a very interesting beast
01:06:41It's basically used to promote
01:06:43a particular agenda and ideology
01:06:45It's always used
01:06:47in one direction only
01:06:49It talks about the risks of using
01:06:51a particular technology
01:06:53fossil fuels for example
01:06:55but never about the risks
01:06:57of not using it
01:06:59It never talks about the benefits
01:07:01of having that technology
01:07:03Anne Mugela is preparing
01:07:05her children's food
01:07:07She's one of the 2 billion people
01:07:09a third of the world's population
01:07:11who don't have access to electricity
01:07:13So instead of electricity
01:07:15she uses wood
01:07:17or a dry towel to burn
01:07:19Home fires are recognized
01:07:21as the deadliest form of pollution
01:07:23in the world
01:07:25According to the World Health Organization
01:07:274 million children under 5
01:07:29die every year from respiratory diseases
01:07:31caused by home fires
01:07:33and many millions of women
01:07:35die from lung cancer for this very reason
01:07:37If you ask a farmer
01:07:39who explains the development
01:07:41he'll tell you
01:07:43I've gone up in level
01:07:45when I have electricity
01:07:47The lack of electricity
01:07:49creates such a line of problems
01:07:51because the first thing that is missed
01:07:53is light
01:07:55and people have to go to sleep earlier
01:07:57because if there's no light
01:07:59you can't stay awake
01:08:01because you can't do anything in the dark
01:08:03Without refrigeration devices
01:08:05you can't store food
01:08:07Home fires produce too much smoke
01:08:09and spend too much
01:08:11to heat the hut
01:08:13There's no hot water
01:08:15and we can't imagine
01:08:17how hard life is without electricity
01:08:19Life expectancy in these countries
01:08:21is terribly short
01:08:23They've become as poor as possible
01:08:29A few kilometers away
01:08:31the UN holds conferences
01:08:33on global warming in its luxurious headquarters
01:08:37In the gift shop
01:08:39souvenirs made by the tribes are sold
01:08:41while delegates talk about
01:08:43sustainable methods of obtaining electricity
01:08:47Africa has coal
01:08:49and Africa has oil
01:08:51but the environmental groups
01:08:53are against these cheap energy sources
01:08:57They say that Africa
01:08:59and the rest of the world
01:09:01should use solar and wind energy
01:09:09A short drive out of Nairobi
01:09:11we find our first solar panel
01:09:13A Kenyan public health official
01:09:15has brought us to a clinic
01:09:17which serves several villages
01:09:19The only electrical implements
01:09:21in the clinic
01:09:23are the electric lights
01:09:25and a refrigerator
01:09:27in which to keep vaccines, medicine
01:09:29and blood samples
01:09:31Electricity is provided by two solar panels
01:09:33So what can it do successfully?
01:09:35Lighting
01:09:37Lighting only
01:09:39When we put lighting
01:09:41plus the refrigerator
01:09:43and others, what happens?
01:09:45It sounds another
01:09:47It sounds another
01:09:49Can we maybe see that?
01:09:59The solar panels allow Dr Samuel Mwangi
01:10:01to use either the lights
01:10:03or the refrigerator
01:10:05but not both at the same time
01:10:07The electricity shuts down
01:10:09Wind and solar power
01:10:11are notoriously unreliable
01:10:13as a source of electricity
01:10:15and are at least three times more expensive
01:10:17than conventional forms
01:10:19of electrical generation
01:10:21The question would be
01:10:23how many people in Europe
01:10:25how many people in the United States
01:10:27are already using that kind of energy
01:10:29and how cheap is it?
01:10:31If it's expensive
01:10:33for the Europeans
01:10:35how are we going to use it
01:10:37for the Africans?
01:10:39It doesn't make sense
01:10:41Rich countries can afford
01:10:43to experiment
01:10:45with other forms of energy
01:10:47but for us
01:10:49we are still fighting for survival
01:10:53For the former ecologist Paul Driesen
01:10:55the idea that the poorest people in the world
01:10:57should use the most expensive
01:10:59and least profitable energies
01:11:01is the most repulsive moral aspect
01:11:03of his campaign against global warming
01:11:09Let me make one thing perfectly clear
01:11:11if we are telling the third world
01:11:13that they can only use
01:11:15wind and solar power
01:11:17what we are really telling them
01:11:19is that you cannot have electricity
01:11:23The challenge we have
01:11:25when we meet
01:11:27western ecologists
01:11:29who say we must engage
01:11:31in solar panels and wind energy
01:11:33is how we can have Africa industrialized
01:11:39because I don't know
01:11:41how a solar panel is going to power
01:11:43a steel industry
01:11:45how a solar panel
01:11:47is going to power
01:11:49maybe a railway train network
01:11:53or maybe to power
01:11:55a small transistor radio
01:11:58I think one of the most pernicious
01:12:00aspects of the modern environmental movement
01:12:02is this romanticization
01:12:04of peasant life
01:12:06and the idea that
01:12:08industrial societies
01:12:10are the destroyers of the world
01:12:13One clear thing that emerges
01:12:15from the whole
01:12:17environmental debate
01:12:19is the point that
01:12:21there is somebody keen to kill
01:12:23the African dream
01:12:26The environmental movements
01:12:28have become the most effective
01:12:30way to prevent
01:12:32third world countries
01:12:34from developing
01:12:36They tell us don't touch your resources
01:12:38don't touch your oil
01:12:40don't touch your coal
01:12:42that is suicide
01:12:44I think it's legitimate
01:12:46for me to call them inhumans
01:12:48you don't have to think humans
01:12:50are better than whales
01:12:52or better than cows
01:12:55but surely
01:12:57it is not a good idea
01:12:59to think of humans
01:13:01as sort of scum
01:13:03if it's okay that
01:13:05hundreds of millions of them
01:13:07go blind or die
01:13:09I just can't relate to that
01:13:11The theory of global warming
01:13:13caused by man
01:13:15is already so firmly established
01:13:17and the critical voices
01:13:19have been silenced so effectively
01:13:21that it seems invincible
01:13:23but on the contrary it affects
01:13:25no matter how solid it is
01:13:27the alarm of global warming
01:13:29has already exceeded
01:13:31the limits of reason
01:13:33There will still be people
01:13:35who believe that this is
01:13:37the end of the world
01:13:39especially when the scientific
01:13:41leader of the kingdom
01:13:43that unites Antarctica
01:13:45and humanity may survive
01:13:47thanks to some breeding couples
01:13:49who move to Antarctica
01:13:51Anyway
01:13:53it would be hilarious
01:13:55if it wasn't so sad
01:14:21English patiently