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00:00:00All right so our opening hour we went all around the 2025 men's NCAA tournament
00:00:05bracket as we welcome you to our number two on this Friday here on the early
00:00:10line we had recapped everything now we set the stage for where things stand as
00:00:15we get ready for a second day in the round of 64 at the men's big dance 16
00:00:22games yesterday about 13 and a half consecutive hours of college basketball
00:00:2716 total games on this Friday about 13 plus hours consecutively of college
00:00:34hoops that will feature a young Donny right side in studio tonight for sports
00:00:39grids bracket central coverage breaking it all down DRS will get your thoughts
00:00:44of the primetime slate which game you are most excited for throughout this
00:00:48second hour and a reminder for all of you sports grids bracket central coverage
00:00:52begins noon Eastern time on this Friday myself the coach
00:00:57JY James Young once again and the addition of Big Blue Mike Blewett
00:01:02joining us from Versa NYC outside our Midtown Manhattan studios out with the
00:01:08people on the roof deck on what should hopefully be a lovely Friday afternoon
00:01:13in the early spring sounds like a great night for rescue programming on the
00:01:17sports grid network baby let's have fun let's have no snafus let's bring the
00:01:24people what they want B double s how about that look I'm feeling good on a
00:01:28Friday I'm energized I'm revived I got the double header today I got the home
00:01:31at home today home studio home up at home Dell I'm ready to go
00:01:36no snafus we rock and roll today don't make me don't make me work another three
00:01:41hours in the afternoon yeah don't make me work another three hours in the
00:01:43afternoon man come on I can't handle that I got enough might have to air a
00:01:46show scheduled for Sunday with an earlier premiere but anyway as we get
00:01:51you ready for everything we will see today I hope we don't get fired around
00:01:55the round of 64 on this Friday at the 2025 men's NCAA tournament DRS let's
00:02:01take a moment to look at the national championship odds based on what we saw
00:02:05on the opening day in the first round at the big dance Duke in Florida yet to
00:02:10play their odds remain mostly the same Duke backed by a dime but still the only
00:02:15team with a price shorter than three to one at plus two ninety four to the same
00:02:19at plus 360 Auburn remains at plus 550 that's fine Houston has seen their price
00:02:26shaved by a half buck at plus 550 and then again DRS what a large drop-off we
00:02:34have from all of those four teams on the one line to everybody else Alabama as a
00:02:39two seed enters the big dance and a round of 64 matchup today against Bobby
00:02:45Moe Robert Morris the champions of the Horizon League with a 20 to 1 price to
00:02:50win a national championship outlandish stuff I do love the way some of the
00:02:55market reacts as you are gonna get changes even from first round games but
00:02:59somebody I guess looked and said boy we didn't know Gonzaga was actually a
00:03:03quality basketball team they won their game they were impressive and it wasn't
00:03:07as if Houston won by six points yesterday Houston was unbelievably
00:03:11impressive and their calling card is on defense to be like a tough scene that's
00:03:15second round here so we got to change the matchup just a little bit so I
00:03:17always love how the evolution of the markets happen in real time as we watch
00:03:21on the fan dual sports book nobody should be panicking nobody should be
00:03:24upset as long as your team won let's just say your final 14 elite a national
00:03:28champion whatever it might be they were okay and didn't get injured you should
00:03:31be okay but I still do like that panic of well I don't know if Auburn's a team
00:03:35we always thought they would be what did you watch this year and they won easily
00:03:38yesterday but still it's you expect 40 to 50 to 60 point wins by some people on
00:03:44some of those unattainable goals it's survive it's advance that's what it's
00:03:48called in March Madness as long as you're winning you're okay in my book
00:03:51DRS I didn't see anything yesterday out of Auburn that makes me gravely
00:03:56concerned or more skeptical of this team that we haven't seen down the home
00:04:02stretch when you drop three of your last four there is a reason to be hesitant as
00:04:08we shared yesterday no team although it feels like an interesting quirk because
00:04:12how many times has this happened but no team has lost three of their final four
00:04:15games entering the tournament and gone on to win a national championship that
00:04:20makes sense but these three losses again these three losses aren't like oh they
00:04:25got blown out as a ten and a half point home favorite against a scrub team that
00:04:29didn't even get to the NIT they lost all the road to A&M a team that is a
00:04:34four-seed in the South region it handled Yale yesterday they lost at home in
00:04:39overtime in a rivalry matchup against Alabama a team that is a two-seed in the
00:04:46East region it has the fifth best place to win a national championship sure they
00:04:51squeaked by Ole Miss in the SEC tournament but the running rebs still a
00:04:55six seed in this NCAA tournament and Donnie they then lose in this SEC
00:05:01tournament semifinal against Tennessee who won by 15 yesterday and is on the
00:05:08two-line had Auburn dropped games they were not expected to although they were
00:05:12booked as a favorite and every single one I just mentioned but if they were a
00:05:1615 and a half point favorite against bottom feeder in their conference all
00:05:19right I'd put up the caution flag no doubt about it nothing I have seen yet
00:05:24still changes my outlook the vibe looks a little bit off for Bruce Pearls Tigers
00:05:28I will say that but in terms of the actual basketball play I'm not like oh
00:05:33man yep that shows it the Hornets cut it to a one-point deficit late in the
00:05:37opening half if they can't even hammer Alabama State has a 19 and a half point
00:05:41first half favorite then I want nothing to do with them I still think Auburn is
00:05:44going to be a-okay yes and they will be just wait for the plus 290 Duke Blue
00:05:49Devils to be up five points at the final timeout today in the first half and
00:05:54watch that number plummet all the way down oh no Duke's not as good as we
00:05:58thought they were even though were they sensational with or without the best
00:06:01player in the country I do love the overreactions early but it does actually
00:06:05end up saying you know if you bet Houston for a ticket to win it all and
00:06:08yes Gonzaga is gonna be the second round matchup for them that which is a tough
00:06:11matchup and that's what you're gonna get around the 30 you don't get layups in
00:06:14the round of 32 but you to watch Houston yesterday wouldn't you know what I feel
00:06:18comfortable there so that comfort of handling your business easily and moving
00:06:22forward because Houston are they playing their best basketball because they just
00:06:26hammered a team they're supposed to hammer it in SIUE yeah I mean come on
00:06:29it's debatable at that point don't panic early as long as your teams win and
00:06:33survive there's gonna be games that are phenomenal but as I told you so many
00:06:36breakdowns we just gave you and what we watched yesterday I love when the team I
00:06:40like won a game where it's like boy they didn't play that well because wait till
00:06:44they play well that's when you get excited NDRS as you have alluded to and
00:06:48rightfully so the one seed should have this level of distinction they are the
00:06:53best group of number one seeds we have ever seen at least in the last 20 years
00:06:57in the NCAA tournament based on Ken palm ratings but when you have nearly a
00:07:02$15 drop-off to a really good Alabama team on the to line you do have some
00:07:08value Texas Tech sees their numbers shortened at a 20 to 1 price I wasn't
00:07:12overwhelmed by what I saw at a grant McCaslin in the Red Raiders yesterday
00:07:16Gonzaga a lot of movement as well at 27 to 1 and a great round of 32 matchup
00:07:22again tomorrow between the Zags and Houston let's talk about the 2-1 seeds
00:07:26that enter the fold in the round of 64 today we got official confirmation
00:07:31yesterday Cooper flag he is cleared he is good to go how much will we see him
00:07:36though today frankly how much will the Blue Devils even need him today against
00:07:40Mount St. Mary's Donnie Lynn leading them out to a win on Wednesday in Dayton
00:07:45the champions out of the Mac riding a high but a 32 and a half point underdog
00:07:49against the Blue Devils so Donnie let's enter answer those questions how much
00:07:54will we see out of Cooper flag today how long do you think John Shire keeps him
00:07:58on the floor as long as he's you know healthy at that point and we're led to
00:08:03believe he's healthy otherwise he wouldn't be playing like teams that we
00:08:05talk about like Texas Tech McMillan thought he went play didn't play that
00:08:09shows like we're gonna have to worry a little bit but if your superstar player
00:08:12is good to go I'm not saying you play him 35 minutes in this game but quite
00:08:16frankly any superstar players not gonna play 35 in a 116 matchup that you're
00:08:20supposed to easily win that game but I look for a strong first half and it's
00:08:24one of those where you're gonna be able to get warmed up out of the break put
00:08:27him in there for six seven eight minutes and maybe he plays a total Ben
00:08:30of 20 minutes in this game because once again you're not gonna need him like I
00:08:34doubt Duke's have to bring off the bench with four minutes ago in a two-point
00:08:37game today like hey rescue us when I didn't think you would need it give me
00:08:4020 plus minutes I don't even need efficiency I just need to see the bounce
00:08:44out there the spring and just to maybe knock a little bit of the rust off and
00:08:48get that confidence back that's all you need to stay give me 20 minutes for
00:08:52Cooper flag today and I think that would be great DRS you don't need a ton
00:08:56out of him basically we saw Calvin Sampson sit all of his starters in the
00:09:00second half yesterday as Houston was comfortably beating si ue I think that
00:09:05is probably the plant for John Shire but it almost presents a perfect
00:09:09opportunity for Cooper flag to test out the ankle and be ready for the rest of
00:09:13the bat give it one seat in the fold today Florida live right here on this
00:09:19Friday it is the round of 64 continuing at the 2025 men's NCAA tournament round
00:09:26of 64 begins at the women's big dance on this Friday as well we'll talk about
00:09:31that a little bit later on DRS Duke 32 and a half point favorite today in the
00:09:36116 matchup in the East region against the champions of the Mac that would be
00:09:41Mount St. Mary's a victory for the Mount and upset against American on Wednesday
00:09:47evening in Dayton the Mount by the way has won four consecutive games in
00:09:52postseason action Mac tournament NCAA tournament outright as a dog but this
00:09:58one a 32 and a half point spread Mount St. Mary's does turn the basketball over
00:10:04when you look at a team like Alabama State who was the 16 that covered Donnie
00:10:07they don't turn the ball over it allows them to keep things safe to stay within
00:10:11margin might be a little bit more difficult for the Mountaineers against
00:10:15the Blue Devils of course we will monitor the status of Cooper flag that
00:10:19will be a key equation for that game the other one seed playing in this round
00:10:23of 64 Friday the one seat atop the West region that is Florida taking on the
00:10:30champions for the me act that's Norfolk State a 28 and a half point spread in
00:10:34favor of the Gators who have won run rough shot as of late throughout the SEC
00:10:40including in a conference tournament in Nashville frankly Donnie with the way
00:10:44they won games in the SEC tournament and the way get the Gators look right now
00:10:48I think there is an argument to be made they look like the most dangerous team
00:10:52entering the dance they really do and you see that large number there there's
00:10:56two ways you could try to play it off because if you're looking for that big
00:10:59spread it's like well I just go in the first half because you know the thought
00:11:02process of the cleanest after going to get between two mismatched teams is
00:11:05always the first half because number one it doesn't matter if you're up 40 to 9
00:11:09with three minutes to go your starters aren't coming out in the first half
00:11:12they're gonna press that lever down but understand this like Florida's backups
00:11:16are probably better than Norfolk State starters at that point so is it one of
00:11:20those where you start a little bit slow like you see sometimes in NCAA tournaments
00:11:24hey we're only up 9 10 or 11 at the break which wouldn't have been good
00:11:26enough to cover that halftime number and then you really slap it down the second
00:11:30half you score 48 points other team scores 17 points and away you go with
00:11:34the cover and an easy one at that bit I don't really generally been get
00:11:38involved in these one verse 16th here with the high numbers because you are
00:11:41expecting a blowout but understand this again I always just get back to the
00:11:44simple theory no aggregate score you don't have to keep your number one seed
00:11:47by how many points you beat the number one but number 16 seed by so you can
00:11:51advance and still be that number one seed and round number two it doesn't
00:11:54work that way so when I look at games like this I just look at the first half
00:11:57and say what is that score probably going to be and maybe a team total to
00:12:01the under for a team like Norfolk State where what's the maximum so if we're
00:12:05taking a look at I didn't see it 27 and a half 153 so that number is pretty high
00:12:09on the total obviously based on Florida do whatever they want on offense but I
00:12:13always look to these teams like Florida and say their defense should be able to
00:12:16shut down Norfolk State they really should regardless of who's in the game
00:12:19starters or backups so let's give a little respect though to Norfolk State
00:12:23and the Spartans not saying that you were demeaning them by any means the RS
00:12:27but they were an underdog nine times in a non-conference action they were eight
00:12:32and one against the spread they have in fact have played four teams that have
00:12:37made it to the big dance in Grand Canyon Baylor high point and Tennessee
00:12:43booked as an underdog in all four of those matchups they covered in all four
00:12:49in fact scoring enough to keep pace going over in three of those four games
00:12:55now speaking of some of the best cover teams in the country for two sensational
00:13:00they are 26 and 8 against the spread this year we talked about running rough
00:13:03shot in Nashville through the SEC tourney how about just the final two
00:13:07months or so of the SEC regular season four to 112 of the last 13 games
00:13:12entering the NCAA tournament Donnie they have covered in all 12 of those wins
00:13:18really compelling matchup today though where I do think Norfolk State can keep
00:13:22this a little bit close but perhaps the best look as you alluded to DRS Florida
00:13:26should be able to contain them but if I think the Spartans are staying within
00:13:30this number that means they keep pace offensively with a Florida team that can
00:13:34score with the best of them maybe looking at total over 153 and a half we
00:13:40have talked about it yesterday we'll talk about it again today all of the
00:13:44compelling storylines and narratives within the West region including where
00:13:50the two-time reigning national champs reside
00:13:54UConn is the 8th seed in the West region if Florida does knock off Norfolk State
00:13:59and UConn beats Oklahoma that's your round of 32 game Connecticut a five and
00:14:04a half point favorite against Oklahoma in this matchup today we have seen the
00:14:09SEC struggle ever so slightly this line open at four and a half in favor of Dan
00:14:14Hurley's Huskies now at five and a hook Donnie what's your approach to this
00:14:18matchup between the Huskies and the Sooners I like the points tonight if
00:14:22you're looking at the five and a half there depending on what you can get by
00:14:24game time here I think it does make some sense take a look at Oklahoma offense 22
00:14:27nationally here inefficiency but also understand this UConn's gonna chase up
00:14:32the three-point line I sometimes look at that and say okay that could be a little
00:14:35bit of a misjudgment per se because just give me the team that likes to shoot the
00:14:40three-point shot at a high percentage and I trust that team to say all right
00:14:43we're not gonna force three-point shots if they're not there but if they are
00:14:46available we'll kindly not close down but key ingredient in this game fouling
00:14:51Connecticut's defense 333 in the country at fouling Oklahoma knows to get to the
00:14:56line and also yeah making the free throws is important top 10 in the
00:15:00country at making them at 79% as a team give me the three-point shot give me
00:15:06getting to the free-throw line I'll live with it give me the five and a half
00:15:09points they also get to the free-throw line a ton in OU as you mentioned thirty
00:15:14nine point six percent of their free-throw attempts in correspondence
00:15:19to their field goal attempts meaning they get to the line very frequently
00:15:23Oklahoma was a really compelling team this year under Porter Moser they were
00:15:27one of the final unbeatens one of the last four unbeaten teams around the
00:15:31country at 13 and oh then they started SEC play witness on a four-game slide
00:15:37they were 3 in 10 in the SEC and now 16 in 10 in the middle of February they
00:15:43won three of their final five SEC regular season games and knocked off
00:15:48Georgia in their opening game in the SEC tournament Donnie I think if oh you does
00:15:52keep things close today it's a big game for the freshman and Jeremiah fear is
00:15:57one of the best in the country another eight nine matchup that we have backed
00:16:01up and I believe the East region that is Baylor in Mississippi State basically a
00:16:07pick'em it's our first game on this Friday we'll hit on it more DRS on the
00:16:11other side of the break what's your initial thought yeah Baylor look at and
00:16:15again it's not a well the underdog take the one and a half points at this point
00:16:18I think there's a legitimate chance they can win a bet I know Mississippi State's
00:16:20one of those teams that you've eyed up say boy I can't wait to fade that team
00:16:24once they get to the dance well Ben they're actually in the dance now are
00:16:28you going to fade that squad is the question I wish it was any other a nine
00:16:34seat instead of Baylor we'll talk more about it next our first game on this
00:16:39Friday in the round of 64 at the 2025 men's NCAA tournament 1250 p.m. Eastern
00:16:46time trip tip excuse me between the nine seed in Baylor and the eight seed
00:16:51in Mississippi State a one and a half point spread in favor of Chris Jan's and
00:16:56his Bulldogs minus 130 on the money line over understands at 145 and a half DRS
00:17:03you asked me am I going to fade Mississippi State a team that I have
00:17:07long said I do not buy into I believe their numbers have goosed up the resumes
00:17:13of their fellow fellow conference compatriots in the SEC a Mississippi
00:17:18State team that I was willing and ready and able to fade in the NCAA tournament
00:17:24the short answer is yes and every one of my brackets I have not bet on the Baylor
00:17:30Bears just yet I was literally hoping for anybody else as a nine seed you give
00:17:36me Creighton for sure what a bet Creighton alt line minus ten and a half
00:17:40against the Bulldogs somehow some way of course as we have a couple of nine
00:17:44seeds out of the SEC Oklahoma and Georgia of course they were not going to
00:17:47pay play their conference flow in the opening round Baylor's also been a
00:17:52wildly disappointing team this year under Scott Drew with way too much
00:17:56talent and not even like way too much talent but starting to figure it out
00:17:59still way too much talent that hasn't looked all that great down the home
00:18:03stretch no it hasn't but also understand this like styles make flights here you
00:18:07take a look at that opening number here at the fans of Sportsbook 142 and a half
00:18:10I completely agree where it sits right now 145 and a half because I like teams
00:18:15with the ability to knock down the three-point shot and other teams that'll
00:18:18say hey shoot it all you want and we don't defend it all that well you're
00:18:21getting that on both sides a decent three-point shooting team in Baylor
00:18:24which is a hundred forty seventh in the country at volume which means 40% other
00:18:28total shots come from three-point range and look at Mississippi State 326 at
00:18:32chasing you off the line and 314 at defending it themselves and then you
00:18:37take a look at Mississippi State if they can shoot the three-point shot
00:18:39which they like to shoot don't do it all that well only at 31% but again
00:18:43Baylor's defense will let you shoot the three band and not defend it all that
00:18:47well both teams foul which means we can get to the free throw line and make some
00:18:50free throws I like this game to the over and usually you take a look at the start
00:18:54time first game in the tournament 1215 start a little bit of nerves I want to
00:18:59buck that trend I want to take that over I do I think the over makes sense in
00:19:03this game it could be a fun back-and-forth game today
00:19:05DRS Baylor has dropped five of its last eight entering the NCAA tournament but
00:19:11in his last two games as an underdog a cover against Houston and a cover
00:19:16against Texas Tech in the big 12 tournament as they lost that game by
00:19:20only two as a six and a half point dog again Baylor will take the three if you
00:19:26allow them they play at a slower pace normally the Bulldogs under Chris Jans
00:19:31frankly any Chris Jans team known for their outstanding defense not this year
00:19:37by any means but if Mississippi State is going to hoist from deep that is going
00:19:42to be their point guard in a great score out of the SEC in Josh Hubbard to me
00:19:47that is the key how efficient can the Bulldogs be shooting from deep they take
00:19:52a ton and Hubbard has free reign he'll take eight nine ten eleven twelve a game
00:19:56how many go down if it's three or four good if it's two out of eight maybe not
00:20:02the best game for Mississippi State again they don't really take the
00:20:06basketball away neither does Baylor it's an interesting matchup here again not my
00:20:12favorite opponent to fade Mississippi State in this game first game though of
00:20:17this round of 64 Friday at 12 15 p.m. Eastern Time Donnie slingshot effect
00:20:24everybody hates us nobody believes in us that of course is the calling card
00:20:30now for North Carolina and Hubert Davis UNC rolls on into the round of 64 after
00:20:37an emphatic nearly 30 point win but up by 40 in the second half against San
00:20:42Diego State in the first four on Tuesday night UNC the 11 C in the South
00:20:48region against a succeed in Ole Miss in North Carolina is a slight point and a
00:20:55half favorite minus 122 on the money line Donnie it's been the story for the
00:21:00heels the last few weeks despite people questioning the legitimacy of this
00:21:04team's resume everybody seems to keep betting them 81% of the money in terms
00:21:10of the spread back in North Carolina on the fan dual sportsbook here's all you
00:21:15have to look at today you see Carolina is the favorite maybe deservedly so you
00:21:19take a look at the SEC of Mississippi quality ballclub you're gonna play good
00:21:22defense gonna play good offense here but what it comes down to is the three-point
00:21:25shot they talk about Mississippi defend it pretty well but don't really chase
00:21:29you off that three-point line if we're gonna get North Carolina being effective
00:21:33which means they shoot 36% from the field from the three-point line if
00:21:37they're above 36% they're winning that game because that's just the way they
00:21:41play but for me I'm gonna bank on Mississippi being the better ball club
00:21:45tonight and that's three ball doesn't go down and Mississippi advances over UNC
00:21:50if RJ Davis is perfect from deep like he was it could be a long day for the
00:21:57running red for that live right here on the early line on this around of 64
00:22:02Friday in the NCAA tournament on SportsGrid DRS the most compelling game
00:22:07of the day perhaps at least with the highest highest thrill score on Kenneth
00:22:13Pomeroy meeting how great of a game he expects it to be that's North Carolina
00:22:17trying to continue this doubt us run into the round of 64 and beyond against
00:22:24Ole Miss it's the 6-11 matchup in the South region we saw an 11 seed
00:22:29yesterday in Drake emerged victorious UNC winning in the first four which began
00:22:35in 2011 every big dance with the exception of 2019 a team the winner the
00:22:41first four has at least won a game in the round of 64 as well they are a
00:22:46slight favorite 81% of the money on the spread backing North Carolina here's
00:22:53where Ole Miss has an advantage they are great at taking care of the basketball
00:22:58second best turnover rate in the country they don't even really allow the ball to
00:23:03be taken away from them they don't put it in harm's way best non-steel turnover
00:23:08percentage in college basketball if they are sound DRS the runner rebs on the
00:23:13offensive side of the floor playing at the tempo they do they should be able to
00:23:18stay in this game right with North Carolina but what you said before the
00:23:21break is critical Ole Miss will let you shoot the three and if UNC shoots it as
00:23:26well as they did against San Diego State in Dayton this could be another
00:23:30Carolina victory and the heels marching on to the round of 32 like usually don't
00:23:35say like hey it's a good matchup for North Carolina's the 11th seed taking on
00:23:38a higher seed and the higher seed hasn't played yet North Carolina did they had
00:23:41to travel we get all that but also like against fouls do make fights the calling
00:23:45card for North Carolina is sometimes not as efficient as it should be said well
00:23:49what does that mean that if they're 18th in the country that's really efficient
00:23:51we've watched him at times this year it's like hey you just can't make the
00:23:54open shot when they're now doing that which makes them dangerous which started
00:23:58in the second half against Duke and then continued obviously in their play
00:24:02and matchup against San Diego State but also look at some of these other things
00:24:05that should happen in UNC favor if they come in hot from three-point range and
00:24:09they make their shots they're a completely different team but
00:24:11understand this they don't necessarily need the three-point shot in volume
00:24:15because you look at Mississippi State's defense been 323rd in the nation at
00:24:20fouling now I love that when you have a team that can get to the free-throw line
00:24:24and convert and have the ability to score in different ways it just takes
00:24:28the pressure overall off of your offense like hey if the three balls not
00:24:31going down there's no other way we can score this team gets to the rim and if
00:24:35Mississippi State challenged at the rim they could get in foul trouble I'm still
00:24:38trusting Mississippi as saying you know what enough is enough they probably
00:24:43should be a favorite in this game they're not North Carolina coming in a
00:24:46little bit hot Chris Beard is a fantastic coach it's not as like hey
00:24:49what you want me to do against North Carolina you'd have a game plan ready to
00:24:52go they will be coached well they handle the basketball as you said and I'm
00:24:56predicting that they pull the upset come on now yes it is so funny DRS you
00:25:02and I have sat here now literally going on a week because the ACC tournament
00:25:06tournament semifinals were last Friday in Charlotte and despite the fact that
00:25:10Cooper flag was not playing everybody knowing the importance of the game for
00:25:14North Carolina everybody was betting the heels look like Duke was going to make
00:25:18the the books a ton of money of course North Carolina did come back and cover
00:25:22as a six and a half point dog in that game despite losing outright despite
00:25:28North Carolina's controversial inclusion as the final team into the field of 68
00:25:32everybody was betting on the tar heels in the first four against San Diego
00:25:36State correct again UNC has been the bookmakers nightmare and that could be
00:25:42the same today if UNC does win and cover as a point and a half favorite against
00:25:47Ole Miss and I think we said I think we've been fair to North Carolina here
00:25:51on the show outside of the Duke games in their final 11 right they lost the 2
00:25:55to Duke they've won the other 9 they have covered an 8 of those 9 don't even
00:26:00end out the regular season in their 6 game win streak entering the matchup
00:26:04inside the Dean Dome against Duke they had gone over in 6 straight the offense
00:26:08looking good over of course against San Diego State Ole Miss over in 9 of its
00:26:14last 12 entering the big dance 4 or 5 p.m. Eastern Time all of the attention
00:26:19this afternoon on a Friday on the Pfizer forum in Milwaukee for North
00:26:24Carolina and Ole Miss UNC one of the 11 seeds to win in the first four in Dayton
00:26:30on Tuesday the other that was Xavier a dramatic double-digit comeback in the
00:26:35second half spurred on by what felt like a home atmosphere even in Dayton with
00:26:40the fans making the trip from Cincinnati to knock off Texas on Wednesday again
00:26:46first four began in the NCAA tournament in 2011 every year with the exception of
00:26:522019 at least one team to win in the first four has won at least one game in
00:26:58the round of 64 could it be North Carolina or could it be Xavier really
00:27:02good matchup today for the Musketeers out of the Big East taking on Illinois
00:27:08the 6-11 matchup in the Midwest region as we look at this game DRS three and a
00:27:14half point spread in favor of the Illini and everybody pay attention to
00:27:17that total 159 and a half how much offense are you anticipating in this
00:27:23game between the Illini and the Musketeers we're expecting a lot of
00:27:26offense here and the shot makers all the way around you want some decent tempo
00:27:29both teams will play at it you want some three-point shots to be shot these teams
00:27:32do like to shoot however when looking at one little setup which is going to
00:27:36decide this game for me you take a look at Xavier's offense sixth in the nation
00:27:40at making the three-point shot at close to 40% as a team you look at Illinois's
00:27:45defense they'll defend it quite well but how about this third in the nation at
00:27:49chasing you off of that three-point line so it's like that battle of attrition
00:27:53because understand this Xavier's not built like we talk about like a BYU hey
00:27:57bomb away if you make them there's nothing they can do they're pretty
00:27:59judicious from the three-point range here only 206 in the country at volume
00:28:03which means they're not forcing it so they're taking the open shot but how
00:28:06many of those open shots are going to be available is the question for me I
00:28:10like Illinois in this game now they are the favorite my mo is usually take the
00:28:14points and pray in my bracket I have Illinois advancing it's one of those
00:28:17where I do think we get a great total here but also do you get that effect
00:28:22where Xavier played so well in game number one coming into the game where
00:28:26Illinois hasn't played here yet in the dance does that make up a difference
00:28:30here and also is if you're gonna translate that great shooting into this
00:28:33environment we'll find that out a great game a fun game and maybe the best game
00:28:37to watch overall if you're looking to bet profits why because of how high that
00:28:40total is I can't wait to watch it play out in the key once again is that
00:28:44three-point line for Xavier and how many shots they get a chance to knock off
00:28:47Illinois when they'll chase you right off that three-point line Illinois an
00:28:52incredibly compelling team not quite in the same vein of a Kansas or a Baylor or
00:28:58a Yukon perhaps but a team that was expected with so much talent up and down
00:29:03the roster for Brad Underwood to maybe not be on the sixth line but the two
00:29:07line the three line after making it to the elite eight last year for the first
00:29:11time in two decades since 2005 that's the standard now in Champaign for the
00:29:18Illini can they get on a run but Donnie they get blown out by Duke by 43 in the
00:29:22garden they respond by winning four in a row covering in four in a row scoring at
00:29:27least 80 plus in all four over in three of four and then they enter the Big Ten
00:29:33tournament they handle business in the highest scoring game against Iowa
00:29:37included in that four-game win streak and get absolutely ran out the gym on
00:29:41Friday night by Maryland 88 65 now the Terps in action today we'll talk about
00:29:47Maryland in just a moment they're really good basketball team I don't know what
00:29:51to make of Illinois I do think we see some offense today did Xavier use up all
00:29:56the three ball on Wednesday Marcus Foster was great four or five from deep
00:30:00you know who wasn't all that prolific Ryan Conwell one of the best three-point
00:30:05shooters in the country for the Musketeers I bet the over 159 and a
00:30:09half when this matchup was set late on Wednesday night that's where I still
00:30:13stand great game though in the Midwest region that's 6-11 split let's head back
00:30:19out to the West region Memphis in Colorado State the RS the 12 seed in
00:30:24Colorado State perhaps one of the hottest teams entering the big dance
00:30:27winners of 10 straight winners of the Mountain West tournament title as a 12
00:30:32seed are booked as a slight favorite against Memphis one and a half point
00:30:38spread minus 126 on that money line DRS are we discrediting the Tigers just a
00:30:44little bit too much oh we are definitely and that's what the handicap is because
00:30:48you look at both of the metrics on each side both teams have you know decent
00:30:52offense decent defense and say well Memphis should be the better team better
00:30:55pedigree at this point I just don't think Memphis played a very strong
00:30:57schedule this year and the fate of it is just I think Colorado State is better
00:31:01but again what the Midwest was a little bit better than what they showed up in
00:31:04the tournament so that's why I talked about a little bit early in the show a
00:31:07little bit of trepidation with Colorado State today as I was more comfortable
00:31:11just a few days ago 2 and 15 the six Mountain West schools not named San
00:31:16Diego State the last six tournaments we're on the early line next Colorado
00:31:20State a team on the 12th line is favored against a 5 seed in Memphis DRS
00:31:28we continue to break down this game 2 p.m. Eastern Time in Seattle today it is
00:31:33going to be one of the more compelling in this round of 64 Friday at the men's
00:31:37big dance you said Memphis is being slightly discredited based on the odds I
00:31:42would have to agree here's why Memphis is a 5 seed here is why the power
00:31:48ratings and the metrics don't love the Tigers Memphis is a 5 seed because of
00:31:53the strength of their non-conference schedule and what they did in that non
00:31:57con schedule Memphis holds five wins against fellow tournament teams and oh
00:32:03by the way in all five of those wins against fellow tournament teams the
00:32:07Tigers did cover in the total pushed to the over the Tigers though not loved by
00:32:13the metrics because they play in the American they won't oh they were not
00:32:17overwhelmingly impressive in the American just 8 and 13 against the spread
00:32:21in conference action despite winning the AAC and they needed to win to claim that
00:32:27automatic bid no other American team in to the big dance so the committee based
00:32:32on their non-conference wins against NCAA tourney teams they're on the five
00:32:37line but Donnie we have said this there are 25 teams that are rated higher in
00:32:43Ken Palm that are lower on a seed line in the NCAA tournament than that of
00:32:48Penny Hardaway and his Memphis Tigers it is why they are catching even just a
00:32:53point and a half against CSU today yeah exactly and there's not a lot of life to
00:32:58that Memphis program for me they'd have a lot of PA this is one of my teams that
00:33:01can make a run it's one of those games again where a lot of people circled and
00:33:04said Colorado State is the better team even though one team is a 5 seed and one
00:33:07team is a 12 which again on a year-to-year basis that's always the
00:33:10matchup we look for at the 12 to 5 so I do think it makes some sense but when
00:33:14you do look at the metrics and the numbers and go back and forth I guess
00:33:16Memphis turns it over a little bit too much but both of these teams seem pretty
00:33:20even up to me I'm just as a pure fade to Memphis not necessarily on oh I don't
00:33:25think Memphis can handle themselves because they want a lot of basketball
00:33:27games but again you're questioning the competition and even when they got into
00:33:31the American tournament slipping by their first two round games here those
00:33:34are the expectations but also as I pointed out before the break I like
00:33:38Colorado State a lot better a few days ago not because of Colorado State
00:33:42because I was given the nod to that conference saying it's a conference that
00:33:45maybe not a lot of people watch but based on some of these Ken Palm rankings
00:33:48they're right up there at the top and they should be able to handle their
00:33:51business so today looking at what that quote-unquote tough conference did so
00:33:56far it's like man it's Colorado State really that good now they can reset the
00:34:00market for the Mountain West with a nice victory over Memphis but again
00:34:02confidence-wise not as high as I was just a few short days ago here but still
00:34:07think Colorado State's the better team and will win this game Utah State blown
00:34:12out by UCLA San Diego State blown out by North Carolina in the first four in San
00:34:18Diego State really has been the beacon of the Mountain West a conference that
00:34:22has struggled in large part in the NCAA tournament of course SDSU a national
00:34:27championship game run two years ago the only team of the six which was a
00:34:32conference record for the Mountain West into the big dance last year to even see
00:34:36the second weekend they were ousted by Connecticut again in a sweet 16 the
00:34:41other six schools in the last six NCAA tournaments including Colorado State
00:34:45that have made the big dance just 2 and 15 it has not been a picture perfect
00:34:52picture for the Mountain West but what Nico Medved has done for Colorado State
00:34:57really solid one of the best players in this tournament Indy Clifford CSU is
00:35:02110 in a row including the Mountain West tournament title Donnie since the
00:35:06middle of February according to Bart Torvik who does his updated power
00:35:09rankings throughout the year you can kind of select that window that time
00:35:13frame you want since the middle of February Colorado State rated as the
00:35:16eighth most efficient team in college basketball couple of good 710 games we
00:35:22haven't really discussed at length yet here on the early line st. Mary's and
00:35:27Vandy the Gales the champions of the regular season out of the WCC on the
00:35:32seven line in the East region taking on yet another SEC team in Vanderbilt the
00:35:38Tennessee four and a half point spread in favor of st. Mary's every game you
00:35:42see with Randy Bennett's crew that likes to play slow you will see a low total
00:35:47135 and a half Donnie what's the breakdown for this round of 64 matchup
00:35:51take a look at st. Mary's again you have to take your chances against them
00:35:56because if you allow them to dictate the pace of the game it's gonna frustrate
00:35:58the heck out of your offense you take a look at them talking about st. Mary's on
00:36:01defense seventh overall and efficiency 15th and effective field goal
00:36:04percentage which means they rebound the basketball they don't fail they defend
00:36:08the three-point line and they chase you off of the three-point line now forty
00:36:12five point eight percent is the amount inside the arc that they allow which a
00:36:16boy that's you know a decent number they do however let you score because they
00:36:20chase you so much off of the three-point line so for me if I look at that that's
00:36:24an advantage towards st. Mary's which is destined to frustrate a Vanderbilt team
00:36:28you take a look at st. Mary's offense incredible rebound here which means
00:36:31second chance points and Vanderbilt does foul even if st. Mary's isn't that team
00:36:36and that's why they're not up tempo how many times usually get the fouls man you
00:36:39get out of the fast break it's a 3-2 you take it to the rack you get to the line
00:36:42that's not st. Mary's offense frustration is st. Mary's offense they
00:36:46don't turn the basketball over I'm trusting Randy Bennett and this team
00:36:49built for March Madness to slow this tempo down and frustrate Vanderbilt with
00:36:54their defense and their offense should be good enough to get him excuse me
00:36:58handle their business there I think it's again favorite you know me I love
00:37:01to take the points and pray but it's just in bracket ology I'm moving st.
00:37:05Mary's on in this game I just love their style of play Randy Bennett and the
00:37:08boys yeah I agree DRS I'm back in st. Mary's here and I think this is a line
00:37:13that puts a lot of credence into the SEC and Vanderbilt has had a great year in
00:37:18Nashville first year under Mark Byington that brought James Madison to
00:37:22the big dance and now brings Vandy to the big dance for the first time in
00:37:25nearly a decade I believe since 2017 2016 something in that realm I think st.
00:37:31Mary's is being slightly slept on they lost one game in regular season WCC
00:37:36action they swept Gonzaga yeah they lost to Gonzaga in the WCC tournament title
00:37:41game but I really love this st. Mary's team and I love the WCC player of the
00:37:46year and Augustus Marcellonis I think st. Mary's wins this game and Donnie
00:37:50they play at a slow tempo yeah it's been their story every year that Randy
00:37:54Bennett has been there in Moraga that's going on more than two decades now and
00:37:59it's not like oh we don't play teams that play fast they beat Gonzaga
00:38:03Gonzaga is far more efficient offensively in place far faster than
00:38:08that of Vanderbilt I love st. Mary's to win this game now the Gales have not
00:38:12seen the second weekend since 2010 do I love st. Mary's against the to sit in
00:38:18the East region in Alabama speaking of the play fast and can score maybe not do
00:38:24I like st. Mary's in this game yeah I'll lay the four-and-a-half with the
00:38:27Gales as well our other 710 game on the other side of the break Marquette and New
00:38:34Mexico what to make of this matchup in the South region I'll tell you next
00:38:39710 matchup in the South region Marquette out of the Big East taking on
00:38:43yet another Mountain West tourney team in New Mexico Richard Pitino and his
00:38:49Lobos won the regular season conference crown in the Mountain West the first
00:38:53for New Mexico in a conference in over a decade dating back to their time in
00:38:58conference USA Marquette a compelling team DRS off to a great start in Big East
00:39:04play fading down the stretch when you look at the odds for this matchup
00:39:09tonight in Cleveland Ohio the Golden Eagles just a three and a half point
00:39:14favorite total at 151 and a hook what's your approach to this game that I really
00:39:19can't seem to make a ton of sense of no it's a really hard one because in
00:39:23sometimes you have to factor in I don't I haven't watched a single of New
00:39:27Mexico play basketball this year like barely even highlights but I couldn't
00:39:31even tell you like they're starting five at this point without scrolling down to
00:39:34Ken Palm and reading the names out but I do know Marquette at this point but
00:39:37that's my bracketology in this one I just moved Marquette on because I don't
00:39:41know much about New Mexico and having said that how about this same thing I
00:39:45think about Colorado State where I've watched a little bit of their games
00:39:47familiar with the head coach and familiar with the background I say to
00:39:50myself well Mountain West all right we're giving a lot of credence after how
00:39:54they've actually entered in so I use the opposite theory on Colorado State where
00:39:58it's like well I don't know about this I feel more confident on Marquette today
00:40:02because I have a Mountain West actually is done against Mexico but for me I will
00:40:05not be betting this basketball game I just move Marquette on because why I
00:40:09don't know anything about New Mexico I'm just hoping they lose today to help out
00:40:12my bracket how about that handicap so DRS I don't mind it right so let's start
00:40:17with Marquette they are known much like Maryland for relying on their starting
00:40:22five basically the entirety of their minutes and production from the starting
00:40:26five for Shaka smart led by Cam Jones one of the best guards in the country a
00:40:31lot of veteran experience for this Marquette team that saw the second
00:40:34weekend a year ago Marquette got off to a 9 and 1 start in Big East play 18 and
00:40:393 they dropped their next three games I bought in on the dip on the Golden
00:40:43Eagles because the price to win a national championship was a hundred and
00:40:47thirty to one and I was just like look give me give it a second weekend I'll
00:40:50cash out I don't think Marquette gets to the final four I don't think Marquette
00:40:54really makes any bit of a run you literally allow me a small profit on
00:40:59that wager I'll cash out markets worked against Marquette because they have
00:41:03struggled from that juncture they play fast though they want you to play slow
00:41:08defensively but they play fast offensively speaking of fast that's the
00:41:13Lobos fourth fastest tempo in the country for New Mexico led by one of the
00:41:18best guards in the country in the Mountain West player of the year in
00:41:22Donovan Dent they had that guard big man combo in Donovan Dent with Nellie
00:41:27jr. Joseph kind of holding down the paint for the Lobos they don't love to
00:41:32take the three they don't need to take the three they try to press you up front
00:41:37and they make things very difficult on the defensive end of the floor a
00:41:42compelling game Donnie I've done three brackets I think in two I have New
00:41:46Mexico in one I have Marquette not sure I'm gonna bet this game but we'll see
00:41:51who advances to the round of 32 the winner of this game more than likely
00:41:56will take on Michigan State who plays Bryant today we'll talk about MSU and
00:42:01Bryant in a little bit 12-5 matchup Oregon and Liberty in the East region
00:42:07what to make of Oregon really really good really really bad at times this
00:42:12year Liberty the champions of CUSA Richard McKay has a really sound team
00:42:17that 5-12 matchup once again the odds for this game in favor of the Ducks as
00:42:22you would expect six and a half point spread total 138 and a half late night
00:42:2710 10 p.m. Eastern Time that scheduled tip out in Seattle not a far trip for
00:42:33Oregon yeah and that's a problem for Liberty because they're gonna travel a
00:42:37long way some more home court advantage for Oregon but however how do you defeat
00:42:40that home court advantage effective field goal percentage nationally number
00:42:43two overall that is Liberty they can shoot from three-point range top five in
00:42:49the country close to 40 percent as a team inside the arc which they don't
00:42:52rely on all that much top 11 in the country you know me but if I want an
00:42:56underdog I don't care how you operate at all outside the three-point line because
00:43:02if you make your three-point shots you'll always be in that game I like
00:43:05Liberty in this game despite the travel and the home court advantage and the
00:43:09higher pedigree of the Oregon squad give me Liberty or give me a loss oh I like
00:43:15that Donnie Oregon a really compelling team
00:43:18eight quad one victories this year five wins against teams that will play in the
00:43:22NCAA tournament including a ton in non-con play including against A&M San
00:43:29Diego State and Alabama winning outright as an underdog against those two SEC
00:43:34teams and Dana Altman 75 wins in the month of March in his 15 years in Eugene
00:43:41he gets his team playing the best basketball at the most significant times
00:43:45but Oregon has had some very high peaks and some low valleys this year will
00:43:50continue to break down what we'll see in the round of 64 on this Friday when our
00:43:55number three on the other line comes away now round of 64 Friday at the 2025
00:44:02men's and women's NCAA tournament second day in the round of 64 in the
00:44:08men's big dance opening day in the round of 64 for the women's tourney as well
00:44:13Maryland and Grand Canyon a matchup of a four seed and a 13 seed if I'm not
00:44:19mistaken in the West region right I'm correct in saying such a thing as we get
00:44:26going here between the Terrapins and the Lopes the Antelopes of GCU who have
00:44:32been in the big dance four times in the last five years led by a March legend
00:44:38formerly for Valparaiso that would be Bryce Drew total one forty
00:44:43nine and a half double digit spread in favor of the Terps 413 split big number
00:44:49in favor of Maryland DRS can the Terps get a win and a cover in the round of 64
00:44:54it's always tough with the ten and a half but I do think they can get the win
00:44:58in the cover have a watch a lot of Lopes basketball this year no but when you
00:45:01look at the you know metrics for them Maryland is a great defensive team and
00:45:05anytime you're a great defensive team when you're going against lower level
00:45:08competition no disrespect to Grand Canyon but not as good as a team like
00:45:12Maryland that's where I think you struggle because Maryland does
00:45:14everything well on defense and that could be an issue and you know me then I
00:45:19see the ten and a half points and I say to myself how can Grand Canyon stay
00:45:22inside that number here well you can score on Maryland because their point
00:45:26distribution is 35th in the country and allowing you to score inside the arc but
00:45:30you know me I don't really care about that if you're gonna stay inside that
00:45:33number the ultimate equalizer is the three-point line you look at Grand
00:45:37Canyon 31% as a team from the three-point line 311th in volume from
00:45:43the three-point range which means you're asking a team that's probably not as
00:45:47athletic to score at the rim against a tremendous defense like Maryland has I
00:45:52just don't see it lining up am I betting Maryland to cover the minus 10
00:45:55and a half no but I'm advancing them in my bracket but it's not one of those
00:45:58looks where I want to take Grand Canyon I need the three-point shot to be part
00:46:03of my life you're like Liberty in Oregon not a great matchup per se but they can
00:46:07shoot the lights out from three-point range that gives me hope Grand Canyon
00:46:10here doesn't give me hope with the way their offensive footprint fits against
00:46:14Maryland's defense Donnie this line opened at ten and a half it is basically
00:46:19remained at ten and a half yeah I think Maryland wins this game comfortably
00:46:23you've heard of the crab five by now Kevin Willard trusting his starting
00:46:27lineup each in every game and that's really where things stand Jacoby
00:46:31Gillespie the point guard Selton Miguel Rodney Rice and then an outstanding pair
00:46:36of bigs in Julian Reese of the Big Ten freshman of the year in future lottery
00:46:40pick this summer in Derek Queen there's not really many advantages I love for
00:46:45GCU like you mentioned the Lopes last year did play spoiler the 12 to beat the
00:46:50five knocking out st. Mary's and then was expected to maybe give Alabama a run
00:46:55that didn't so much happen but Grand Canyon this year really not as good as
00:47:01last year last year elite defensively this year sound last year didn't love to
00:47:06shoot the three this year they still don't love to shoot the three but when
00:47:09they shot it last year better than this year really every matchup kind of favors
00:47:14Maryland here's a really good game that I love today in the East region also a
00:47:20413 matchup Arizona and Akron the Zips the champions of the Mac Arizona a team
00:47:26at the oddsmakers in the net ratings in the analytics believe a lot more in than
00:47:31I do 14 and a half point spread total for a 413 game 166 and a half both teams
00:47:39want to play fast and both teams can score the RS how competitive and high
00:47:44scoring is this matchup today between the cats and the Zips it's it like the
00:47:48upside on Arizona is tremendous but so many times so many of these past years
00:47:53we've seen that really talented Arizona team crash and burn once they got into
00:47:57the NCAA tournament but also we're not talking about who's going to win this
00:48:01game an unbelievable shock is if Akron wins this game it advances against
00:48:05Arizona but the question mark is getting close to 15 points right now I just told
00:48:10you the previous game with Grand Canyon hey you know it's a solid basketball
00:48:13team but I need you to shoot that three-point shot and I need you to play
00:48:16with some pace here what you're gonna get that with Akron you're gonna get
00:48:19pace you're gonna get a good offense and you're gonna get a team that shoots 37
00:48:22percent from three-point range as a team and launches 45 percent of their total
00:48:28shots from three-point range you take a look at Arizona's defense they don't
00:48:32foul what good thing is Akron doesn't give a damn Ben about getting to the
00:48:35free-throw line so for me in this game I think a viable option would be Akron now
00:48:39understand this there's two ways to play these type of games we have these big
00:48:43spreads because do you think that Akron throughout the entirety of the game Ben
00:48:47can knock down three-point shot after three-point shot after three-point shot
00:48:50probably not there's usually an instance where you go cold having said that if
00:48:55Akron can come out of the gates and shoot let's just say in the first half
00:48:5845 plus percent from three-point range they'll be covering from the half so as
00:49:03a dog player in this one I don't necessarily because I think Arizona could
00:49:07just wear out Akron by the end of the game it just the way it is but you can
00:49:10get those glimpses which we saw yesterday from some of these teams
00:49:13looking for upset bids just play well in the first half we'll let the chips fall
00:49:17in the second half maybe Akron first half makes a little bit more sense to me
00:49:20than second half come out firing from three-point range hit those shots okay
00:49:23they open up five of seven from three-point range you're gonna get
00:49:26yourself a cover in the first half I love John gross I love this Akron team
00:49:30one of the first bets I made Akron plus 14 and a half because both teams will
00:49:36allow you to do what both teams want to do offensively the three-point shot is
00:49:40the great equalizer the zips have to be good have to be efficient the volume is
00:49:44certainly always there I think Akron keeps this game within the number Donny
00:49:49those are both for 13 games that will take place in Seattle yesterday both
00:49:54four seeds knocking out the 13 seed as you might expect both teams covering
00:49:59Texas A&M seven and a half point favorite against Yale won that game by
00:50:03nine Purdue seven and a half point favorite against high point won that
00:50:07game by double digits both of those four seeds seemed susceptible at least based
00:50:13on what the odds makers were telling you and what we thought could happen 10 of
00:50:17the last 14 NCAA tournaments a 13 seed has upset a 3 seed yesterday nope
00:50:23didn't even get a cover maybe we see some chaos today the RS elsewhere as we
00:50:29continue to preview games Kentucky hoping to wash away the bad taste of
00:50:34losing last year as a 3 seed to a 14 seed in Oakland this year as a 3 seed
00:50:40but of course a completely different coaching staff and a completely
00:50:44different roster it is Mark Pope in the cats take it on the Sunbelt champs in
00:50:48Troy how do you make sense of this matchup it's again it's it's a high
00:50:53level team in Kentucky playing a lower level team in Troy but however that 11
00:50:56a half shows a lot of respect towards Troy now the one thing you don't like is
00:50:59Troy doesn't make a ton of three-point shots but again Ben they shoot a ton of
00:51:05three-point shots that's the ingredient Troy does turn the basketball over
00:51:09Kentucky's like we're not even gonna try to steal it from you in this game
00:51:13whoa maybe the point maybe the point plenty more pics and previews next a 314
00:51:20matchup in a game today between Kentucky and Troy DRS Midwest region only a couple
00:51:28of games today in that portion of the bracket where we need to figure out
00:51:31what's going to happen in the round of 32 Kentucky and Troy Xavier and Illinois
00:51:36those two teams whoever wins these two games will face off on Sunday Kentucky
00:51:4111 and a half point favorite today take it on the Trojans the champions of the
00:51:46Sunbelt 151 and a half is that total you think Kentucky you think offense and
00:51:51correctly so this year under Mark Pope the ninth most efficient offensive team
00:51:56in the country but you don't really think defense outside of the top 50 57
00:52:01and as you said a non-steal percentage of 4.7 that is 364 out of 364 bottom of
00:52:13the barrel nationally in college hoops so they're not really trying to be out
00:52:17there to be in line for turnovers which of course could benefit Troy as they're
00:52:23just trying to keep this game within single digits exactly and that's what
00:52:26you're giving a hope for am I saying that I got a run to the window here at
00:52:29seven o'clock where I'm live on the air here on the sports grid never like Troy's
00:52:32my favorite play of the day because they don't do a lot all that well and can be
00:52:36negated like hey man Troy's really good at offensive rebounding you think that's
00:52:39gonna be the same against Kentucky here who's probably gonna beat them up and
00:52:42have more of an advantage just with athletic ability but there are some
00:52:45things again the ultimate equalizer yes Kentucky does defend the three-point
00:52:48shot well but they'll let you shoot it and Troy's offense like oh they're
00:52:51probably not gonna make a three-point shot here in Milwaukee or a neutral set
00:52:54against a better team like Kentucky but that's the equalizer it's one of those
00:52:57games where Troy could get beat by 25 or Troy could be giving Kentucky a battle
00:53:02into the second half because of the three-point shot we'll find out but if
00:53:06Kentucky is as efficient as they were in SEC play which was the best competition
00:53:10in the country why can't they just slay Troy on defense you know yeah I
00:53:15completely agree to ERS but Troy's pretty sound I think that game is
00:53:18compelling in Milwaukee today 314 matchup from the Midwest region also in
00:53:23Milwaukee 314 split in the south region Iowa State taking on the champions from
00:53:29the A's son that would be Lipscomb Lenny Acuff in his sixth year there in Nashville
00:53:35leading the Bisons to the big dance for the first time first time for Lipscomb
00:53:39in total since 2018 this Lipscomb team pretty efficient offensively pretty
00:53:46sound on the defensive end of the floor they love to take the three Iowa State
00:53:50will allow you to shoot from beyond the arc 14 and a half point spread in favor
00:53:56of the Cyclones of course injuries a story Damon Lipsy the point guard and
00:54:01the Ames native expected to give it a go Keishon Gilbert also his backcourt mate
00:54:07ruled out more than likely for the entirety of the big dance Donnie how do
00:54:11you break down this game it's pretty good matchup here for Lipscomb and I'm
00:54:15not calling for the upset of Iowa State moving on and winning a couple games
00:54:18here and getting themselves probably into the lead either at least the sweet
00:54:2116 at this point but 15 points let's call it in this game look Iowa State
00:54:25very good on defense but Iowa State also like what's the mo for them if you have
00:54:29one player one of your stars that's gonna sit out already another one that's
00:54:32banged up do you really want to max him out this entire way and sort of took it
00:54:36like a Cooper flag type of situation let you see what you have but don't get
00:54:39injured I think we should beat this team anyway that could be a recipe for
00:54:42success as a cover for Lipscomb and once again Iowa State's calling card is
00:54:46defense they love to take the basketball away but Lipscomb doesn't just turn it
00:54:50over they're not gonna struggle which means if you are a pressure defense you
00:54:54can break the press you can have success on offense which leads to what Ben open
00:54:58three-point shots which is exactly what Lipscomb wants 27th in the country
00:55:03shooting 47% of their total shots from three-point range and making a lot of
00:55:08those at around 37% as a team Iowa State's gonna overwhelm Lipscomb but
00:55:12once again you see what I'm talking about here that footprint of if I have
00:55:16an underdog that likes a three-point shot and I'm not even talking about Ben
00:55:19dagger in 40% from three-point range all game long just if you're comfortable
00:55:24with shooting volume three-point shots if they go down there's nothing the
00:55:28other team can do with that because if you're trading threes for two advantage
00:55:32you so I like Lipscomb with the points in this I don't like Lipscomb the win
00:55:36but they can hang around I was a lot higher on Iowa State before the injuries
00:55:41in fact as I have shared the very first bet I made on the very first day of the
00:55:45college basketball season Iowa State to the final four I still think Iowa State
00:55:49wins this game I agree with Donnie I think the Bisons can keep it close at
00:55:53least the matchup presents the opportunity for Lipscomb Iowa State
00:55:58would be in for a very interesting game if they win this one depending on what
00:56:02happens in the South region with North Carolina and Ole Miss today in Milwaukee
00:56:07as well 215 matchup in the South region that's Michigan State and Bryant we will
00:56:14talk about this game more on the other side of the break the Spartans 17 and a
00:56:19half point favorite regular season crowd in the big 10 number 11 with Tom Izzo
00:56:24year number 30 under Tom Izzo trying to get back to the final four for the first
00:56:29time since 2019 we'll break down MSU and Bryant led by Phil Martelli jr. as their
00:56:36head coach that's next you're on TV now live right here on this round of 64
00:56:42Friday at the 2025 men's NCAA tournament a couple of two seeds in action let's
00:56:48start with the South region Michigan State taking on Bryant DRS this game
00:56:53late night in Cleveland Ohio the Spartans a 17 and a half point favorite
00:56:58against the Bryant Bears the champions from the America East led by Phil
00:57:03Martelli jr. of course his father Phil Martelli senior a coaching legend right
00:57:08a conference championship this year for Bryant as well Donnie not sure if you
00:57:14dove into the scouting report for the Bears but everybody in their starting
00:57:18lineup you want to talk about length everybody Oh Bulldog excuse me Brian
00:57:23Bulldog I say Bears Brian Bulldogs Brian Bulldogs that's me everybody in the
00:57:28starting lineup for Brian 6-6 and above maybe some of that length in the tempo
00:57:34that Brian plays at can it frustrate Michigan State today here's the problem
00:57:39we see that big line at 16 and a half and you say to yourself well how's
00:57:43Bryant going to attack in this game can you shoot the three-point shot who's the
00:57:46best team in the entire country defending the three-point line it is
00:57:50Michigan State top 10 on defense at rebounding it is Michigan State
00:57:54effective field goal percentage 14th overall and you look at Brian from the
00:57:58three-point line they don't really do all that much to try to defeat you there
00:58:01but Michigan State is a boring basketball team per se because they tell
00:58:05us Ben I wish we could just take the three-point line out of basketball
00:58:08because we don't use it at all nor do we actually use it effectively at shooting
00:58:12328th in the country only 30% as a team but the effectiveness for them is
00:58:17getting to the free-throw line that mid-range game and it all works out well
00:58:20I have Michigan State obviously moving on but this team if I'm looking at one
00:58:25game today Ben and I say where's my excitement meter for it this has to be
00:58:29dead last I'm just being honest it has to which again shout out the NCAA shout
00:58:34out the cameras right there with all the crowds walking by you Ben shout out this
00:58:38right now Michigan State wins this game and puts a choke hold on Brian but
00:58:42having said that 10 o'clock come on man who's watching not me not me
00:58:46MSU despite being one of the elite defenses DRS and this is one of the
00:58:51things I think we like to highlight pace and tempo very different than what you
00:58:55do either offensively and you're scoring output you see teams that play slowly
00:58:59but efficiently or what you do on the defensive end of the floor as well
00:59:02Michigan State plays fast they want to get out in transition they want to be
00:59:07led by their point guard in Jeremy fears but they're great defensively Brian
00:59:12also plays very fast seventh fastest tempo in all of college basketball I
00:59:18still look at the Spartans the fifth best cover team in the field of 68 that
00:59:21made it to the NCAA tournament nobody in college hoops though plays faster than
00:59:26that of Alabama the two seed in the East region the Crimson Tide take it on Bobby
00:59:31Mo 1240 p.m. Eastern Time tip today 21 and a half points spread in favor of the
00:59:37Tide against Robert Morris the champions of the Horizon League 166 in
00:59:43a hook is the total Donnie what's the approach yeah I don't know about that 166
00:59:49and again we're not talking about a competition with Robert Morris that can
00:59:52go toe-to-toe like hey we're fine you take a look at Alabama who's no slouch
00:59:55on defense 32nd in the country inefficiency here they won't turn you
00:59:58over but come on now they'll defend the three-point line they'll chase you off
01:00:01of the three-point line which means our MU is gonna constantly score at the
01:00:06ring against Alabama I just don't see it I like points I like teams that play
01:00:10up-tempo Alabama is one of the best at doing that they'll knock down the
01:00:12three-point shot they'll shoot a lot of them but do we really need to press the
01:00:16needle down as if it's 86 to 80 late in this game to push you over the total
01:00:20because you're getting even pushback by Robert Morris I don't see that I'd hate
01:00:24to take unders but I lean towards the under this game and of course Alabama
01:00:27wins going away but one of those games again I probably won't be involved with
01:00:31right off the bat 1240 just sit back and see how Alabama tries to advance in this
01:00:34one DRS this would match the second lowest total for Alabama in the last
01:00:40four weeks and I think that's maybe where things are getting confused Robert
01:00:44Morris doesn't play slow but they don't exactly play all that much of tempo
01:00:48pretty much middle of the pack Robert Morris doesn't love to take the three so
01:00:52will Alabama really care if the Colonials start hoisting it's an
01:00:57interesting number at 166 and a half that is very much Alabama but I don't
01:01:02know if based on the matchup we get there with what Robert Morris is looking
01:01:07to do the champions of the Horizon League a great year for Robert Morris
01:01:11not sure how this matchup fits in their game against Alabama but Robert Morris
01:01:16really good at facilitating the basketball if they can make it work
01:01:20they have also won 10 straight entering this game against the Crimson Tide of
01:01:24course Alabama the two seed in the East Region Duke is the one seed the Blue
01:01:29Devils the favorites at minus 140 to win the East Region to represent this
01:01:33portion of the bracket in the Final Four a plus 410 price on the Crimson Tide if
01:01:38Alabama wins 21 and a half point favorite and if st. Mary's wins what a
01:01:43matchup you have in the round of 32 in terms of contradiction of style if
01:01:47Vanderbilt knocks off st. Mary's and SEC affair where Vandy for the first time I
01:01:52think since the mid 1980s beat the Crimson Tide of both football and
01:01:56basketball in the same season