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00:00:00Live from the official start of the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament.
00:00:06Joining us from Dayton, Ohio, it is Jon Rothstein.
00:00:09Live right here on this Wednesday morning on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
00:00:14Excuse me, Rothstein joining us on behalf of the FanDuel Sportsbook.
00:00:18And of course, covering all of the action at the first four for CBS Sports and Turner.
00:00:23Jon, we appreciate your time.
00:00:25Thanks for waking up bright and early on this Wednesday morning to join us here on Sports Grid.
00:00:30Always great to be with you, Ben. We sleep in May.
00:00:33A double header of action in the first four last night to officially begin the 2025 Big Dance.
00:00:39Our second game of the night, North Carolina and San Diego State.
00:00:43The controversial inclusion of UNC as the last team into the field of 68, Jon.
00:00:49Maybe Carolina used that as some motivation for an emphatic victory over San Diego State.
00:00:5595-68, the victory for Carolina.
00:00:59You were there on the sidelines in Dayton.
00:01:01What allowed Hubert Davis and his Tar Heels to be so impressive last night?
00:01:06Well, Hubert said it during the broadcast.
00:01:09You know, Carolina tightened up its defense, which invigorated its offense.
00:01:13And North Carolina's offense, especially when it got separation in the first half, was second to none.
00:01:18And I'll say this, you know, Brian Dutcher has taken over for Steve Fisher right now for close to a decade.
00:01:24I have never seen a team play as well offensively against San Diego State under Brian Dutcher as North Carolina did last night in Dayton.
00:01:33I mean, R.J. Davis was sensational. Elliot Cadeau set the table.
00:01:37The Tar Heels should be commended for how well they played offensively.
00:01:42R.J. Davis, a perfect six of six from deep.
00:01:4514 made triples for UNC as a team.
00:01:49And it should be shared because I know there will be some comments, of course, about North Carolina even getting into the NCAA tournament and how they performed last night.
00:01:58Your performance in a tournament where your resume before the actual event is what matters to getting in to the NCAA tournament does not either prove the committee right or invalidate their selection in the first place.
00:02:14North Carolina taking advantage of the opportunity.
00:02:17Now the true 11 seed, John, in the South region, an opening round matchup in Milwaukee on Friday afternoon against Ole Miss.
00:02:25So San Diego State is home.
00:02:27We've got one more game at least between the at-large teams in Dayton tonight between Texas and Xavier.
00:02:33And, John, you've been in Dayton for the last few years to begin the big dance.
00:02:36You understand the momentum this can have for teams in the month of March.
00:02:42Every year we have had the first four since 2011, with the exception of 2019.
00:02:46A team that is one of the first four has also won at least one game in a round of 64 and beyond.
00:02:53Whether it's North Carolina or any of our two teams squaring off tonight, who do you think continues that trend here in 2025?
00:03:01Well, North Carolina definitely has the momentum.
00:03:03The winner of the Texas Xavier game is going to have to play Illinois.
00:03:07So I would make the argument that the winners of this year's games in the first four, regardless of whether it's Texas or Xavier tonight,
00:03:14have maybe two of the toughest six seeds that we have seen in quite some time in terms of the teams that play their way into the bracket.
00:03:20You know, Illinois is a team that a lot of people, including myself, at times this year saw as a potential Dark Horse Final Four team because of the talent base.
00:03:28And Ole Miss, under Chris Beard, has reminded myself and other people this season of the teams that Chris Beard added to Texas Tech.
00:03:35So I look at the Carolina-Ole Miss game. Carolina probably has better personnel in terms of the personnel on the roster.
00:03:42But we don't know yet if it's going to be a better team coming up later this week than Ole Miss.
00:03:46We're going to find that out in a couple of days.
00:03:48North Carolina, a slight favorite as of this Wednesday morning for their round of 64 game against Ole Miss, despite being the lower seed.
00:03:56John, let's talk big picture. Let's look at the bracket.
00:03:59And of course, we correlate everything with those national championship odds.
00:04:04If I put you on the spot right now, having studied the field of 68 and as we go through all of this madness,
00:04:11and I ask you for one team on this list that you feel near 100% confident is in San Antonio for the Final Four, which school do you highlight?
00:04:20The Houston Cougars. I know in order to break through in sports, sometimes you have to be at bat year after year.
00:04:27And Kelvin Sampson's team has been at bat year after year, three straight years as a one-seed in the NCAA tournament.
00:04:33Last year, went to the Sweet 16, lost to Jamal Shedd to an ankle injury against Duke.
00:04:38But Kelvin Sampson has ripped through the Big 12 like a chainsaw through butter.
00:04:43In the last two years since Houston has joined the conference, the Cougars are 39-5 against Big 12 caliber opponents.
00:04:51That's something that can't be denied when you look at the fact that Houston has went into that league,
00:04:57which has been consistently the best league in college basketball, even if it hasn't been this year.
00:05:02It was the SEC and went 39-5 in two years.
00:05:05Houston in two years has become the flagship program in the Big 12 and has taken that mantle from Kansas.
00:05:11The Cougs, the one seed in the Midwest region where, as John is still in Dayton,
00:05:17we've got more first four action tonight for the battle to be on the 11 line in the Midwest region as well.
00:05:23It is Xavier and Texas.
00:05:25John, the Musketeers, a three and a half point favorite for tonight's matchup.
00:05:29As you break down this game, what do you think will be that key indicator of who comes out with the win?
00:05:35Well, I think guard play is always going to be paramount.
00:05:38You know, Texas has shifted its lineup really since it got healthy.
00:05:41It's one with Tremont Mark at the point, Kendall Weaver coming back in the lineup.
00:05:45So I think Texas is guard play against, you know,
00:05:48the veteran pieces that Xavier has on the perimeter with Davion McKnight and Ryan Conwell.
00:05:54You know, I think a lot of people don't understand just how good a player Ryan Conwell has made.
00:05:59109 threes last year at Indiana State has made 97 this year at Xavier.
00:06:05So I know a lot of people from the periphery are going to come to this game and for good reason,
00:06:09wanting to obviously focus on Texas freshman Trey Johnson.
00:06:13But Ryan Conwell is a big-time college player.
00:06:16And I think in Dayton tonight, only 47 miles away from the Cintas Center,
00:06:20he's going to have an opportunity to show just that.
00:06:23John, final minute of this segment, first game of the night.
00:06:26It is Mount St. Mary's,
00:06:27the champions of the MAAC against the champions out of the Patriot League and American University.
00:06:32The Eagles, a two and a half point favorite.
00:06:34John, these first four matchups between the 16 seeds,
00:06:37the automatic qualifiers, give the opportunity for a nation to learn about these schools.
00:06:43What is a storyline everybody needs to know for tonight's first game in Dayton?
00:06:47Well, let's look at the two head coaches.
00:06:49Donnie Lind of Mount St. Mary's was a video coordinator for Shaka Smart at VCU.
00:06:54And now, like less than two decades later, he has a team in the NCAA tournament.
00:06:58And Dwayne Simpkins, the head coach of American, a longtime grinder,
00:07:04who, again, was a guard for Gary Williams at Maryland in the 1990s.
00:07:09Plenty of storylines here in Dayton, Ben, but you know as well as I do, this is only mid-March.
00:07:14It is only mid-March, but John Rospin brings you the goods tonight from Dayton and on this show.
00:07:20John, thank you for TEL Next.
00:07:22Guess who's back? Back again.
00:07:25Donnie, right side is back on the early line here on Sports Grid.
00:07:30I was not sure if DRS would show up, but we are glad to have him here once again on TEL.
00:07:37He is ready to go piece by piece throughout this 2025 men's NCAA tournament.
00:07:42And a great idea here, DRS, to round out this second hour for the rest of what we will have here in hour number two.
00:07:48Looking at the seed line matchups, those potential upset spots throughout your bracket,
00:07:53and how things will begin in the round of 64.
00:07:57Excited to break it all down with you.
00:07:59Yes, have some fun with it.
00:08:00Because again, we are less than what?
00:08:02Actually a little bit over 24 hours from the start of the full day on Thursday, which is fantastic.
00:08:07But also gives us a little bit extra time to hone those skills and take a look at some of those actions.
00:08:11And I always say this, buyer beware.
00:08:13You go over that bracket the first time, you make those changes, and you're like, ah, why did I do that?
00:08:20So get ready for that.
00:08:21It's going to happen.
00:08:22The second guessing of yourself, let's bring it on.
00:08:25You'll question your decisions, certainly in a few of these matchups that we are about to highlight as well.
00:08:31DRS, when do you fill out your bracket, by the way?
00:08:33Is it tonight?
00:08:34Have you already done a rough draft?
00:08:36When do you do it?
00:08:37Yeah, the rough draft is in.
00:08:39Because obviously just for content purposes, you have to get that feel of who's going to match up against them.
00:08:44So I do that immediately when the brackets are out within like a half hour of the bracket show.
00:08:48Then I let it sit.
00:08:49And I don't actually analyze just yet, because I like the night before.
00:08:53Today on Moneyline, when it comes up, we'll take a look at that, maybe fill out the official bracket.
00:08:56But more or less later tonight, as you get those final looks, the decisions have to be made.
00:09:01You push that send button tonight, and you let it sink in on Thursday and get after it.
00:09:05But today is the official bracket day here that I'm ready to get after and make it officially official.
00:09:10I do both of my brackets tonight, but I have already started to crunch the numbers.
00:09:15I have looked at my opening round of 64 bets.
00:09:17And that's the beautiful thing that we do here, I think, on SportsGrid with our bracket central coverage.
00:09:22Of course, you want to win your bracket pool.
00:09:24You want to beat your college buddies.
00:09:26You want to beat your co-workers.
00:09:27You want the large cash prize that comes with that.
00:09:30And maybe more importantly, the bragging rights to boot.
00:09:33But you can also, even if you pick a team to win outright, let's say they're an 11 and a half point favorite,
00:09:39you can pick the underdog to keep the game closer than maybe the oddsmakers are expecting.
00:09:44And Donnie, that's what we'll see here as we start on the four line going around the NCAA tournament.
00:09:50The four seed in the East Region.
00:09:52Arizona is the heftiest favorite in any of their opening round of 64 matchups.
00:09:5813 and a half point favorite against the champions out of the MAC.
00:10:01That would be Akron.
00:10:02Maryland, the four seed in the West Region.
00:10:04Double digit favorite against the champions out of the WAC.
00:10:07That is Grand Canyon University.
00:10:09GCU into the big dance for a fourth time in the last five years.
00:10:13And a couple of compelling games for those two final four seeds.
00:10:18Purdue, just a seven and a half point favorite against High Point.
00:10:21A lot of people back in the Panthers riding that HUS bus.
00:10:24Texas A&M gets a 13 seed in Yale.
00:10:28That last year was a 13 seed after winning the Ivy League.
00:10:32It beat a team on the four line out of the SEC.
00:10:35That was Auburn last year.
00:10:37This year it is Texas A&M.
00:10:39When you look at those four seeds, Donnie, let's start with the better version of it.
00:10:44Who are you most confident in being able to make a run,
00:10:47maybe even see in that second weekend?
00:10:49Odds aside, it's probably Arizona.
00:10:51And it's one of those teams that the confidence level sort of wavers.
00:10:54I like Maryland. I like Purdue.
00:10:56I've talked about that multiple times.
00:10:57A&M again out of the SEC.
00:10:59But when I say to myself,
00:11:00what happens if things aren't correct with Duke and Cooper Flagg?
00:11:04Re-injures the ankle is not 100%.
00:11:06They have the talent and the horses to run with Duke.
00:11:08And it also meant that they won two games already in the NCAA tournament.
00:11:12And they're bona fide on a national championship run.
00:11:15So for me, it would be Arizona at that point.
00:11:18Purdue to me, probably the slipperiest slope out of those four teams that were on that graphic.
00:11:22But if we're just saying again, take the odds out of it.
00:11:25You're not talking about price point here.
00:11:26I do believe Arizona is the best team followed by Maryland here.
00:11:29I would bump Purdue back there with Texas A&M,
00:11:32even though you take a look at the price points there, a 110 and a 110 on each side.
00:11:36So I would probably put Purdue fourth there.
00:11:38But Arizona, I think deserves to be at the top of the list.
00:11:40If, and it's a big if, if they can knock off Duke or if Duke's not 100%,
00:11:45why can't they then go ahead and knock off, let's just say Alabama,
00:11:48and find themselves in a final four?
00:11:49We'll find out sooner than later,
00:11:50but that team's got some talent if they can put it together.
00:11:53Yeah, it is an interesting team to me, led by Caleb Love.
00:11:56They've got some great guard pieces under Tommy Lloyd,
00:11:59who plays a great brand of basketball as well.
00:12:02There was a time this year that Arizona was 11-2 in the Big 12,
00:12:06seeming like the biggest threat to that of the Houston Cougars
00:12:09to keep the Cougs from winning their second consecutive Big 12 title.
00:12:12Arizona dropped seven of their final 12 games
00:12:16and did not cover in any of those seven defeats.
00:12:20I am not super confident in this Arizona team.
00:12:24That reminds me a lot of a team that could be Helter Skelter.
00:12:27At their best, very talented.
00:12:29At their worst, very far from even an average basketball team
00:12:33that you might see on the four line.
00:12:35We'll continue the conversations,
00:12:37looking at those seed lines in the round of 64 games.
00:12:41Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid.
00:12:44For the remainder of our two, we will go through the bracket
00:12:47and we will look at the seed lines.
00:12:49Are teams on upset alert?
00:12:51How should you approach the round of 64?
00:12:54And which teams can make a run through all of the madness?
00:12:58DRS looking at the four seeds right now in their opening round matchups.
00:13:03Again, Arizona has the best price of any team
00:13:06to win their opening round matchup
00:13:08and the best price of any team on that four line
00:13:11to win a national championship.
00:13:13But I'll just tell you this,
00:13:14both teams that will play in that round of 64 game,
00:13:18the 4-13 split in the East region,
00:13:20the Cats of Arizona and the Zips of Akron,
00:13:23they like to play at pace.
00:13:25And Arizona will let you take the three if you want it.
00:13:28And the Zips do under John Gross.
00:13:31One of the first bets that I made early on Sunday night
00:13:35when I had a free moment was to take the 13.5 points
00:13:39with Akron, a very high total, 166.5.
00:13:43Yeah, no, and you're right about that.
00:13:45Here's the problem that you have because you know me, Ben.
00:13:48I like first leg competition.
00:13:50Like if you can get your three-point shot off in the SEC,
00:13:52you're going to be able to get that shot off against the NEC, right?
00:13:54But it's almost hard to sometimes comprehend where it's like, all right,
00:13:57bigger, faster and stronger, the better conferences.
00:14:00Obviously, we know Arizona lets you say bigger, faster and stronger than Akron.
00:14:03Does that mean that the defensive footprint for Arizona is going to change a little bit?
00:14:06They'll probably still let you shoot the three-point shot,
00:14:08but that length and the ability to close out might be a little bit different.
00:14:11Those are some of the struggles that I have.
00:14:13And I hopefully admit that too, like getting into your comfort zone,
00:14:16you know, like beginning of the college basketball season,
00:14:18could care less, don't have any numbers in here.
00:14:20Once you start to get the conference play, things start to crystallize,
00:14:22which again leads into last week's conference tournament,
00:14:25where it's like that last chance of like first leg competition,
00:14:27teams that know each other.
00:14:29You know the defensive and offensive footprints.
00:14:31Now it gets a little bit out of hand because you're right.
00:14:33Like you should still be looking at the theory of,
00:14:35hey, this team doesn't close out at the three-point line.
00:14:37This team loves to shoot the threes.
00:14:39But also that means like we've played basketball before.
00:14:41Hey, I'm playing another 5'10 guard on the opposite side.
00:14:44Oh, no, Tuesday night, I have a kid that's 6'4".
00:14:46That is real, you know, puts a hand to my face.
00:14:49I can't get that same shot off.
00:14:51That's what I worry about at this point here.
00:14:52But again, the thought process could write from you as well.
00:14:55I'm not taking Arizona, let's just say, as a 13- or 14-and-a-half-point favorite
00:14:59going up against Akron because the points don't matter.
00:15:01There's no aggregate to get to the next round saying,
00:15:03boy, we only won by 16 points.
00:15:05We should have pressed it to 24, so we got a higher seed in round number two.
00:15:09That doesn't happen.
00:15:10Win, advance, and move on.
00:15:11So when I see a quality opponent like Akron,
00:15:13which what's the great equalizer always talk about?
00:15:16The ability to make the three-point shot with volume.
00:15:18They can do that there.
00:15:19So that's what gives you a little bit of a thought process like,
00:15:21hmm, I wonder how this game plays out and if Akron can actually hang around.
00:15:25DRS, as I have said, I fill out my bracket tonight.
00:15:28Am I going to pick Akron to pull off the upset and move forward to the round of 32?
00:15:32Not so sure.
00:15:33We'll kind of do it live in the moment.
00:15:35But I already have bet the Zips to cover as a 13-and-a-half-point dog.
00:15:40The team that everybody believes is the most likely to be upset on the four line,
00:15:44that would be Purdue against High Point.
00:15:46Two very elite offenses.
00:15:48Neither team all that efficient on the defensive side of the floor.
00:15:52This line open at nine-and-a-half points, DRS, in favor of the Boilers.
00:15:55It's now just a seven-and-a-half-point spread in favor of Purdue.
00:15:59Yeah, it's another one of those games that you take a look at where these,
00:16:03understand this, like in the whole concoction of the tournament dating back 20 years,
00:16:07it used to be the mid-majors and the lower-level teams that you worried about
00:16:10because those teams had fourth- and fifth-year seniors that all played together
00:16:13for five years and could sort of sneak up on you.
00:16:15It's no longer the case.
00:16:16Like the amount of transfers that you come in and out,
00:16:18like you find really good talent that you can bring into your program
00:16:21even just for one year, and it helps you.
00:16:23And Purdue, one of those teams that is efficient but notorious in the past
00:16:27for having a better team on paper, getting to the tournament,
00:16:31and not playing like that piece of paper as they should at this point.
00:16:34So I think people take a look at Purdue and still have that grain of salt like,
00:16:38yeah, we've seen them make runs, but we've also seen them go out to teams
00:16:41like this in the tournament in the past.
00:16:44And High Point, DRS, a 29-win basketball team.
00:16:47They are 56-14 in their two years under Allen Huss's guidance.
00:16:52He has done an incredible job at High Point.
00:16:55It is not often that you see a team from a smaller mid-major conference
00:16:59be really near the top of the charts in any of the Ken Palm ratings.
00:17:02High Point is 25th, the 25th most efficient offense in college basketball,
00:17:07really speaks lengths about what they do on the offensive side of the floor.
00:17:11That is our second game of Thursday, just about 27 hours from now,
00:17:1612.40 p.m. Eastern Time tip between the Boilermakers and the Panthers.
00:17:21Let's move on to the 5C, DRS's.
00:17:24Most people start to fill out their bracket.
00:17:26The 12-5 upset is the most likely one they look at.
00:17:30I'll make a small distinction here.
00:17:32It is actually a little bit less frequent than what we see 11-over-6.
00:17:36That has happened 61 times to only 55 times, the 12 defeating the 5
00:17:41since the field expanded in 1985.
00:17:44But this year, a lot of people are looking at a couple of the 5 seeds
00:17:48to be picked off.
00:17:50Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, and Memphis.
00:17:54And DRS, as you look around this seed line,
00:17:59and you look around these round of 64 matchups,
00:18:02Michigan just a two-and-a-half point favorite against UC San Diego.
00:18:08Out in the West Region, one of the hottest teams entering the Big Dance,
00:18:12the champions of the Mountain West Tournament,
00:18:14that would be Colorado State.
00:18:16They are favored to beat Memphis, an upset based on seed line,
00:18:21but not from the betting odds.
00:18:24No, certainly not.
00:18:25And we're sort of ingrained to always take a look at the 5-12s,
00:18:28and there's some merit to it because so many times you look at those seed
00:18:31lines and sometimes a higher seed does give you a little bit of a convoluted,
00:18:34like, you know what, I'm comfortable, let me just take the higher seed
00:18:37and move on.
00:18:38But I got to tell you, when you look at these two, like,
00:18:40Michigan is really good.
00:18:41This team just won the Big Ten Championship.
00:18:44But UC San Diego, and again, name recognition.
00:18:46Wait a second.
00:18:47Taking Michigan to beat UC San Diego, like, what is that about?
00:18:50They are tremendous.
00:18:51Now, let's keep moving down the list.
00:18:52Oregon and Liberty, maybe not a little name recognition for Liberty at this
00:18:55point, right?
00:18:56Five-seed Oregon probably should win.
00:18:57But you switch down to the bottom of the bracket with the West and the
00:19:00Midwest, I'm not so sure the 12s are going to compete and actually just stay
00:19:04within the number, win these games.
00:19:05Like Colorado State, I think it's actually a better team than Memphis.
00:19:08Like, why did they get a five and a 12?
00:19:09Just the way the metrics work out.
00:19:10Nobody will be surprised if Colorado State moves on.
00:19:13Then we get to McNeese, a team that we thought might do a little bit better
00:19:16last year, didn't.
00:19:17Maybe it's year number two.
00:19:18We understand that we're not just that Cinderella team walking in here with a
00:19:21lot of expectations.
00:19:22We didn't meet them last year.
00:19:23Now it's time to do it.
00:19:24But again, Clemson is a really good team.
00:19:26The focal point, again, that I put on is, how do you handle these?
00:19:29Like, the popular underdogs that everybody wants to bet, we know that is
00:19:34using the death nail.
00:19:35Like, oh, a popular dog?
00:19:37Why don't you stay away from this one?
00:19:38Easy win the opposite direction.
00:19:40Like, Memphis, I feel, is just being written right off the mat.
00:19:43I have in my early bracket is Colorado State moving on because I do believe
00:19:46they're actually the better team.
00:19:48But we've seen instances like, well, how big of a mistake did they make?
00:19:51The five and a 12 right here between Memphis and Colorado State.
00:19:54And how come this one team is favored?
00:19:56That's the one matchup I look at and say, buyer beware.
00:19:59Because I don't hear too many people saying Memphis is going to win that
00:20:02game, let alone maybe make it to the Sweet 16.
00:20:05I want to take a look at that.
00:20:06Rightfully so at 12 versus 5.
00:20:08You're supposed to be favored if you're the 5 seed, not the underdog.
00:20:10That's the spotlight game for me.
00:20:12I want to see if the public is dead on on that game with Colorado State.
00:20:16Because, as you mentioned, DRS, we are almost predisposed to looking at the
00:20:2012 beating the 5 as our Cinderella upset in the round of 64.
00:20:24There has been so much attention thinking the 12 seeds, maybe all four of them
00:20:29can do just that, pull off the seed line upset in the opening round.
00:20:33We'll talk UC San Diego and Michigan in just a moment.
00:20:37It should be shared about Colorado State led by Nick Clifford and what
00:20:40Nico Medved has done for this Rams basketball program.
00:20:44They have won 10 straight games since the middle of February.
00:20:47They are rated as the eighth most efficient team, eighth best team in
00:20:52college basketball.
00:20:54And Memphis actually struggled in the American because for most of the year,
00:20:58DRS, the Tigers were great.
00:21:01They started off non-con play with so many great wins.
00:21:04They've got five non-con victories against teams that are also in the
00:21:09tournament field of 68.
00:21:12Like you, I would keep an eye on the Tigers with one of the best guards in
00:21:16college basketball, that being PJ Haggerty.
00:21:20In fact, my favorite round of 64 bet is the total in that game, over 146.5
00:21:26between Colorado State and Memphis.
00:21:28Two teams that want to get up and down the floor, two teams that want to
00:21:31hoist from three and two defenses that will allow that kind of tempo to be
00:21:36withstood throughout each and every game.
00:21:40We'll talk UC San Diego and Michigan on the other side.
00:21:43Can McNeese learn from its lumps last year?
00:21:46They were the popular 12 to pick off the five in Gonzaga.
00:21:50They did not.
00:21:51They got beat by more than 20.
00:21:52They're a seven and a half point dog against a Clemson team that reached the
00:21:56elite eight just a season ago.
00:21:58And what to make of Oregon?
00:22:00All of that and 20 more up next.
00:22:02The 5-12 upset.
00:22:04Ah, that common one that we see in NCAA tournaments year in, year out.
00:22:10Not really last year.
00:22:11I believe only one 12 seed victorious in the 2024 men's NCAA tournament.
00:22:17And yet this year, it feels like a lot could happen.
00:22:20In fact, if Colorado State, as the 12 seed in the West region,
00:22:23beats the five seed in Memphis, it would not be an upset,
00:22:26at least according to the odds, as CSU is a slight favorite.
00:22:30Just something about Memphis DRS.
00:22:32I was charting all 68 teams in the NCAA tournament yesterday,
00:22:37including the two that lost, St. Francis and San Diego State,
00:22:41and how many tournament teams elsewhere in the field they beat this year.
00:22:45It was pretty clear to see some of the criteria the committee uses to
00:22:49highlight a team, move them up a seed line based on where other teams fall.
00:22:54And a lot of that is victories against other tournament teams.
00:22:58Memphis has five, all in the non-conference,
00:23:01because of course the Tigers are the only team out of the American
00:23:04to get into the big dance.
00:23:07There are 25 teams in the Ken Palm ratings that rank in front of Memphis
00:23:13who are a lower seed line than that of Penny Hardaway's Tigers.
00:23:17And they are on the five line.
00:23:19DRS, if there was one team to get picked off,
00:23:22that is at least the higher seed being on the five line of this group of four,
00:23:26who do you think that is?
00:23:29Wait, we going fives or fours?
00:23:32You caught me off guard right there.
00:23:33Fives.
00:23:34We'll get to threes in a second.
00:23:36We already did the fours.
00:23:37Hold on.
00:23:38Let me, hold on right there.
00:23:39Did we, wait, which, so, yeah, which one is more likely to get knocked off?
00:23:43Hold on.
00:23:44Who's your upset pick?
00:23:46Memphis.
00:23:47Yeah, no, Memphis is getting knocked off, yeah.
00:23:49But I thought you said you liked Memphis.
00:23:51No, no, no.
00:23:52I have Colorado State picked.
00:23:54Bayer, beware of that game.
00:23:55But the most likely for me, if I'm just betting accordingly there,
00:23:58would be Memphis getting knocked off.
00:24:00That's what, no, I was on my fours screen.
00:24:02Wait a second.
00:24:03I thought I just did at this point, so I had to go back and screen at that point.
00:24:05No, Bayer, beware in that game,
00:24:07because I think most people thinking just like I am,
00:24:10Colorado State is the better basketball team and will win,
00:24:12just like we thought UNC might be knocked out of the tournament
00:24:15and shouldn't be in it, and they hammer away.
00:24:17That's my spotlight game, even though I still like Colorado State,
00:24:20much like the public itself.
00:24:22There you go.
00:24:23Okay, confused me a little bit.
00:24:24I thought you were saying public beware of this.
00:24:26Everybody believes this is the most likely matchup.
00:24:29It is not for me.
00:24:30Another one the public is fully buying into, that's UC San Diego upsetting Michigan,
00:24:35just a two-and-a-half-point spread in favor of the Mays in blue.
00:24:39This opened at four-and-a-half.
00:24:41DRS, we had some early bets all backing UC San Diego,
00:24:45but based on quantity of bets,
00:24:47we've got a lot of love for Michigan on the FanDuel Sportsbook as well.
00:24:51What do you make of that game quickly?
00:24:53You know what I think is interesting about this too, Ben,
00:24:55because you have two seven-footers on one side for Michigan.
00:24:58You say, man, how is that going to match up with UC San Diego
00:25:00who can't match that up?
00:25:01But then you look at the style components,
00:25:03eighth in the country at almost 50% of their total shots from three-point range,
00:25:07and they shoot daggers out there.
00:25:09Is that the perfect matchup where it's like you are going to truly live or die
00:25:12with the three-point shot, and they don't turn it over?
00:25:14So if there's one team that you say Michigan is elite defensively, and they are,
00:25:18this other team is like, hey, have your seven-footers down low.
00:25:21We'll shoot right over them from the three-point line.
00:25:23What a great matchup.
00:25:25Are we going to outsmart ourselves though here?
00:25:27Are we really going to outsmart and say, you know what,
00:25:29Michigan gets knocked off at this point,
00:25:30the big ten conference championships in the tournament?
00:25:33I don't know about that, but UC San Diego does fit like a glove.
00:25:37If you want to talk about just respect on the odds line,
00:25:41UC San Diego only getting two-and-a-half points from the conference champion
00:25:45big ten Michigan team, that's crazy.
00:25:48Read that line.
00:25:49That's a UC San Diego line, man.
00:25:52No doubt it is DRS.
00:25:54And they have the big west player of the year in Aniwa Niwa Tate-Jones
00:25:57who is sensational.
00:25:59But height is not something that Triton specialized in.
00:26:02Their tallest starter, Norton Capich, who is 6'8",
00:26:06trying to go up with Area 51.
00:26:08Of course, that is Danny Wolf and Vlad Golden.
00:26:12A great matchup though because UC San Diego can take the three,
00:26:15they'll let you shoot the three, but they're great defending the paint,
00:26:19which is where Michigan thrives.
00:26:21And the Wolverines did not do this in Indianapolis,
00:26:24but what has plagued the Maize & Blue all year,
00:26:26their propensity to turn the basketball over.
00:26:29UC San Diego is the second-best defense in college hoops
00:26:33at causing turnovers.
00:26:35A great, great matchup in the opening round of 64
00:26:39with a lights-out shooter, Tyler McGuy for UCSD.
00:26:44A really good shooter.
00:26:46And as DRS always says, that three-pointer can be the great equalizer
00:26:50as we have seen time and again in the big dance.
00:26:53Now let's move up to the three line, our four number three seeds,
00:26:58Texas Tech, Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.
00:27:02Donnie, we shared earlier, the Red Raiders,
00:27:04eighth-best price to win a national championship, 32-1.
00:27:08Iowa State, tenth-best number to win a national title, 35-1.
00:27:13As you look at these four three seeds,
00:27:16do you believe all four can make a deep run in the NCAA tournament?
00:27:20No, I don't, and that's why you see Kentucky down the bottom of the list
00:27:23as 75-1 appropriately there.
00:27:25If they get hot on offense, that's great,
00:27:27but they're never hot on defense, it feels like,
00:27:29and that's going to be a calling card to many of these teams
00:27:31once you hit the March Bandits.
00:27:33You take a look at Wisconsin, typically in the past,
00:27:35it's like play really good defense, slow it down to be ultra-efficient.
00:27:38I like this new version of Wisconsin,
00:27:40which to me is a better version of Kentucky overall.
00:27:42They can shoot the three-point shot, which again,
00:27:44can be the ultimate equalizer, but also can be your downfall.
00:27:47You know the teams that I don't want to be the great three-point shooting team
00:27:50and rely on it like the number one or the number two seeds?
00:27:52Three seeds, you know what?
00:27:54You're going to have to pull up some upsets here on your way
00:27:56to the Final Four National Championship game and possibly to win it.
00:27:59So I do want a good three-point shooting team with volume,
00:28:01which can be Wisconsin.
00:28:03The shame of it for me is, you know me,
00:28:05two straight weeks before the conference tournament even started,
00:28:08I identified two teams out of the Big 12 that I really liked.
00:28:10It was Texas Tech and it was Iowa State.
00:28:12And I haven't taken the futures yet.
00:28:14I'm almost certain I'm going to take a Texas Tech future,
00:28:16but I feel like I'm a little bit cheated here
00:28:18with the other one with Iowa State.
00:28:20Full gas, ready to go in the tournament, they had the perfect landscape there.
00:28:23But missing one of their key players, and that's what we know,
00:28:25it's a battle of attrition.
00:28:27You might have another guy injured.
00:28:29You need everybody healthy there.
00:28:31So for me, Iowa State gets a slight downgrade.
00:28:33I'm really high, though, however, on Texas Tech.
00:28:35Like, even look at Iowa State.
00:28:37Lipscomb in that first matchup, man.
00:28:39That's a quality opponent getting right out of the gate.
00:28:41That gets you to three.
00:28:43And then round number two, you say, hey, look,
00:28:45whoo, we got the 11th seed, North Carolina.
00:28:47They're obviously coming in on fire.
00:28:49And if you don't get that, you're playing Ole Miss out of the SEC.
00:28:51So for me, Iowa State, it's a shame.
00:28:53Bonus there for Michigan State and maybe Auburn
00:28:55But for me, I left Iowa State down a little bit
00:28:57just because of the injury situations, man.
00:28:59Yeah, DRS, I would agree that the top two teams,
00:29:02obviously with the shortest prices to win a national championship
00:29:05on the three-line, are both true contenders.
00:29:07I have an Iowa State Final Four ticket that I bet back in early November
00:29:11at the start of this season.
00:29:13And all the metrics back it up,
00:29:15it will be the health for T.J. Otzelberger
00:29:17and the Cyclones that really dictates this month of March.
00:29:21More on the early lineup next.
00:29:23Teams on the three-line, how far will they go
00:29:25in the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament?
00:29:28The oddsmaker's very optimistic with the outlook for Texas Tech
00:29:31and Iowa State, two teams that are three seeds,
00:29:34but two of the ten best prices to win a national championship.
00:29:38Texas Tech involved in a very difficult region,
00:29:41that being the West region.
00:29:43But the Red Raiders have the second best price
00:29:45to win that West region, which is very interesting to see.
00:29:51D.R.S. minus 1,800 in their opening round matchup.
00:29:54They take on UNC Wilmington, the champions out of the CAA.
00:29:58Iowa State gets a talented team in Lipscomb,
00:30:01the champions of the A-Sun.
00:30:03And we know the Cyclones are not fully healthy.
00:30:07We believe Tame and Lipsy will be ready to go.
00:30:10Their point guard, Ann Ames, native of Keyshawn-Gilbert,
00:30:12not going to play in the big dance.
00:30:15Lipscomb will shoot the three.
00:30:17Iowa State will allow it.
00:30:18Always the great equalizer.
00:30:20I did bet the Bisons at a plus 14-and-a-half number
00:30:23to at least keep that game a little bit more competitive.
00:30:26Donnie, you talked about your futures bets.
00:30:28Everybody thinks when you fill out your bracket,
00:30:30it's really just the national championship,
00:30:32Final Four odds, or maybe from the handicapping perspective,
00:30:35game by game, round by round.
00:30:37But there are so many great bets that really kind of correlate
00:30:40to how you fill out your bracket, including Sweet 16 numbers.
00:30:44Really, you can think of it as a two-game money-line parlay,
00:30:48just to win both games on your opening weekend
00:30:50to see the Sweet 16.
00:30:52That's how I approach Wisconsin.
00:30:54I really like the Badgers' draw in the bottom half of the East region.
00:30:58I bet the Badgers earlier this week, Donnie,
00:31:00at a minus 116 number to reach the Sweet 16.
00:31:03Yeah, by the way, if we're just talking about, like,
00:31:06betting circles and scenarios, right, and, you know,
00:31:08we always get into, hey, pick your bracket, separate it.
00:31:10You can cheer for that, that's fine.
00:31:11Individual game basis, oh, no, I had Duke to win it all.
00:31:13I'm like, well, wait a second, I really like Arizona
00:31:15getting three-and-a-half points against Duke in here,
00:31:17I'm going to bet it because I had Duke here.
00:31:18You have to take that and remove that.
00:31:19Same way you talk about me, if I went to bet against the Phillies
00:31:21or the Philadelphia Eagles, money is money.
00:31:23You got to remove the fandom out of the equation.
00:31:25But the reason I brought a fandom here, you want to watch
00:31:27some fun basketball that could line up.
00:31:29BYUVCU, right below them, Wisconsin-Montana.
00:31:33You want the three-ball in those first two games, you got it.
00:31:35The winner of those two, you want the three-ball
00:31:37in those two games again, you got it again.
00:31:39So when Ben brings up Wisconsin, BYUVCU, Montana,
00:31:42you are a three-ball haven right there.
00:31:45Let's just say it winds up BYU, Wisconsin.
00:31:47I mean, just protect the deck out there.
00:31:50Is anybody going to dribble into the ring?
00:31:52It's going to be three-point shot after three-point shot
00:31:54after three-point shot.
00:31:55But I also said this as well.
00:31:57If you are looking at those teams here, you want underdog teams
00:32:01to be nothing but firing away from the three-point line
00:32:03because they hit them, they're in the game.
00:32:05If they're out, they're going to lose anyway at this point.
00:32:07That's why some of these teams are so dangerous,
00:32:09which means, let's just say you take Wisconsin over Montana.
00:32:12And Wisconsin, let's just say, beats VCU slash BYU.
00:32:15They go up against Alabama, who's tempo,
00:32:17which means BYU is going to be firing from three-point range in that.
00:32:21So buyer beware if you're just looking for Alabama,
00:32:24the most talented team, or even a St. Mary's to get in there.
00:32:27You are going to get a three-ball wizard coming into that matchup
00:32:31in the Sweet 16.
00:32:33A lot of really good offensive teams in that portion of the bracket,
00:32:36of course, in the East region.
00:32:38Duke is the number one seed.
00:32:40DRS, we've talked about this already, but it does bear repeating.
00:32:44There are four teams right now.
00:32:46All four number one seeds on that one line in the big dance
00:32:49have a Ken Palm net rating of plus 35 or better.
00:32:53In the last 20 years, since the 0405 season,
00:32:57there have been three total teams, three total in a 20-year window,
00:33:03that have had a pre-NCAA tourney Ken Palm rating of plus 35 or better
00:33:09and all four one seeds this year do.
00:33:12Cream often rises to the top in the big dance
00:33:15once you kind of move past the opening games and all of that chaos.
00:33:19But we have only seen all four one seeds reach the final four once.
00:33:25That was back in 2008.
00:33:27Could it happen this time around?
00:33:29I'm telling you, and again, just the early previews that you look at,
00:33:33it's like, boy, I'm going with a lot of chalk.
00:33:35But as Ben just said, the chalk is backing it up this year.
00:33:38It is going to take a monumental shot
00:33:41to knock out one of these number one seeds
00:33:43because there really is no flaw.
00:33:45Auburn, best team in the best conference here this year.
00:33:47Duke, the best player in basketball with an unbelievable team.
00:33:50Florida, outrageous victories across the card.
00:33:53And then does anybody want to see Houston in a dark alley over here
00:33:56in the tournament? No!
00:33:58Would it surprise me if all four teams got there?
00:34:01Yes, because statistically, upsets do happen.
00:34:04But if it ends up all ones, this is the season it's supposed to, Ben.
00:34:08Donnie, I would be more surprised if no one's got there
00:34:11than all one's got there.
00:34:13Of course, in 2023, we saw chaos for the first time in tournament history.
00:34:17No one, two, or three seed even reached the Elite Eight.
00:34:22I would also be surprised if there was not an SEC team
00:34:25with 14 of them into the final four.
00:34:29Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee.
00:34:32The list goes on and on.
00:34:34We will get you ready for the first four and the second night of it
00:34:38in Dayton when Hour Number 3 starts up next.
00:34:42Welcome to Hour Number 3, our third and final on this Wednesday
00:34:46live right here on the Early Line on SportsCrit.
00:34:49He is Donnie, I am Ben.
00:34:51One more hour to go, and then one more day to go
00:34:54until the best two calendar days of each and every year of the sports year.
00:35:00That is the round of 64 Thursday and Friday.
00:35:03But two more first four games tonight in Dayton, Ohio
00:35:07to get you ready for as well.
00:35:09We'll talk some PGA Tour action after a Monday finish
00:35:12at the Players' Championship.
00:35:14Rory McIlroy, a winner. Keith Stewart will join us in just a little bit.
00:35:18Some NBA games, the Handicap, and then again, we fully get you set
00:35:22for the first four tonight in Dayton Women's NCAA Tournament.
00:35:25First four also on this Wednesday evening.
00:35:28We'll look at the bracket, we'll look at the odds
00:35:31as we get ready to go dancing in each and every way.
00:35:34Yes, and also, two good games anticipated tonight
00:35:37just looking at the spreads once again, similar to last night.
00:35:40Did we get a blowout in one game?
00:35:42There might be a chance that we might do that, but also,
00:35:44when we talk about the betting public and which way we want to go
00:35:46and fading the public to poll, boy, we picked a good one here
00:35:49because there's equal action on both sides tonight
00:35:52depending on which way you want to go.
00:35:54So we're anticipating a pretty good performance.
00:35:56Based off last night, yeah, we got the clunker with UNC,
00:35:58but we got an awesome one game number one.
00:36:00If you have two games and you get one that's really good,
00:36:02we'll take those odds.
00:36:04And Donnie, as we saw last night, and one of the reasons we do now
00:36:07love the first four is because it gives those smaller schools
00:36:11from smaller leagues, albeit an automatic qualifier,
00:36:14battling to be a 16 seed, the opportunity to shine
00:36:18in front of the country.
00:36:20Alabama State, NMR Knox, will live on in the history
00:36:24of March Madness with the Hail Mary near buzzer beater
00:36:27last night in Dayton.
00:36:29We hope the same to start tonight's first four action
00:36:32in Dayton, Ohio, at UD Arena between the champions
00:36:35out of the MAAC, that would be Mount St. Mary's,
00:36:38and the champions of the Patriot League and American University.
00:36:42The final game, Xavier and Texas.
00:36:45The night cap in Dayton.
00:36:47So who is going to win both of our first four matchups tonight?
00:36:50That was the question for all of you in Fade the Public.
00:36:53Some pretty even splits here, DRS, at Sports Grid on Twitter.
00:37:05Who will win tonight's NCAA Tournament first four games
00:37:09in Dayton, Ohio?
00:37:10Will it be a Moneyline pair of Texas and American,
00:37:13Texas and Mount St. Mary's, Xavier and American,
00:37:17or Xavier and Mount St. Mary's?
00:37:19DRS, I think it's pretty clear when you look through
00:37:22these votes, it's a pretty tight distinction.
00:37:25But the public is liking Mount St. Mary's more than American.
00:37:29It may be a slight edge to Texas in our night cap in Dayton
00:37:33in front of Xavier.
00:37:35Which way did you go in this Fade the Public poll?
00:37:37A little bit of public, a little bit of non-public here.
00:37:40I went Texas and American here.
00:37:42And boy, these are coin flip games in particular.
00:37:44I actually have a decent little handicap, I think,
00:37:46on American versus St. Mary's.
00:37:48I think American is a better team.
00:37:49We'll get into that in just a few moments.
00:37:51But Texas, this is the interesting part about
00:37:53how many teams got in the SEC and what the schedule
00:37:56actually means.
00:37:57Because it does technically matter who you play.
00:37:59It really does.
00:38:00But I look at the Texas team and say,
00:38:02they do have some wins.
00:38:03But boy, like in Ken Palm terms, there's a lot of red on that
00:38:06screen in front of me.
00:38:07Like, ooh, man.
00:38:08I get that you play a really good schedule.
00:38:11But have we?
00:38:12And honestly, I don't know if this..
00:38:14Were they 6-12 in conference play?
00:38:16There's not too many of those that make it into the big dance
00:38:19winning only six games in their own conference.
00:38:21And then you take a look at Mount St. Mary's.
00:38:23I mean, maybe the easiest run in the history as well.
00:38:25Like, you beat a lowly program.
00:38:26And I own it.
00:38:27Just to get to the tournament.
00:38:28Like, do you give them any respect?
00:38:30I don't give them any respect on that side.
00:38:32So American, to me, would be a clear path of victory
00:38:34just by default.
00:38:35But that Texas-Adrian game, you're battling on which team
00:38:37is better.
00:38:38Yes, but we're really bumping up Texas on North Carolina metrics.
00:38:42They played a tough schedule.
00:38:43Don't worry.
00:38:44They didn't really win a lot of those games.
00:38:46It was just a tough schedule.
00:38:47Which I'll buy into that slightly because I love the SEC.
00:38:50And they're getting points in that game for Texas.
00:38:52But that's why I'm backing them.
00:38:54But, boy, it's as close as you can get.
00:38:56Like, yesterday I actually thought a better handicap was clear on
00:38:58San Diego State going up against North Carolina than either one of
00:39:01these two 11 seeds tonight.
00:39:02So we'll find out.
00:39:03But for me, Ben, Texas and American, 22% of the vote,
00:39:06that's the way I went in this game.
00:39:08That's the way I went as well.
00:39:10I bet the Longhorns early on Sunday for that first four matchup
00:39:13getting two and a half points.
00:39:15Texas now a three and a half point underdog.
00:39:18We'll talk about each of these matchups.
00:39:20But let's start with the nightcap DRS.
00:39:22Texas and Xavier, two of the last four teams,
00:39:25into the field of 68.
00:39:28Both not nearly as controversial as North Carolina.
00:39:31But to Donnie's point, the Longhorns were six and 12 in the SEC
00:39:36in the regular season.
00:39:37They won two games in terms of the SEC tournament in Nashville.
00:39:42Both quad one wins knocking off Vandy and a really hard-fought overtime
00:39:46win in the Lone Star Showdown against Texas A&M that more than likely
00:39:50sealed the fate for Rodney's Terry team of being involved in the big dance.
00:39:55Texas has seven quad one wins, but you are presented all of those
00:39:59opportunities when you play in the SEC.
00:40:02Texas has seven victories against fellow tournament teams.
00:40:05When there are 14 SEC programs into the big dance,
00:40:09you are presented those opportunities.
00:40:11But Texas also has a lot of losses.
00:40:13Donnie, Texas dropped seven of their final nine regular season games.
00:40:18They were not trending toward the tournament until a good start
00:40:22in Nashville during the SEC tourney last week.
00:40:26One of the reasons I think you could be optimistic, though,
00:40:29about UT is the fact they are healthier.
00:40:32One of their glue guys, one of their best defenders,
00:40:35Kendall Weaver is back, as John Rothstein shared earlier in the show.
00:40:39It has allowed Rodney Terry to kind of change his lineups,
00:40:42to change his rotations.
00:40:44Tremont Mark now kind of acting as the facilitator at the point guard spot.
00:40:48And one of the most talented freshmen in the sport,
00:40:51in Trey Johnson, can get hot in an instant for Texas.
00:40:56You've got a Xavier team that, much like UNC, only a single quad one win.
00:41:01Just one and nine for the Musketeers in quad one games this season.
00:41:06That, of course, a blemish on the resume.
00:41:08But Xavier DRS, one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country.
00:41:13Eighth best three-point field goal percentage this year in college basketball.
00:41:17That is going to be a key.
00:41:19They move the basketball very well.
00:41:21This Musketeers team does.
00:41:22And if they shoot the three as they have most of the year,
00:41:26there's very little Texas can do to even keep this game within range.
00:41:30We're taking a look at two options here.
00:41:32There is a slight X's and O's advantage,
00:41:34and I'm going to bring up in just a few moments for Xavier
00:41:36and a couple of things that they do well.
00:41:38But then you're just looking at the strength of schedule and the eye test.
00:41:41It's like, well, should you give Texas the benefit of the doubt?
00:41:45You still have to win these basketball games.
00:41:46Again, it seems like even with North Carolina and also with Texas,
00:41:50like moral victories, it feels like, got them into the NCAA champion.
00:41:54What did you want them to do, win more than six games in the SEC?
00:41:56Like, yeah, there's a lot of teams that won more than six games in the SEC.
00:42:00But when you look at Xavier, there's two things to point out, as Ben just said.
00:42:03There's six in the country making the three-point shot at 39%.
00:42:06You reign from three, there's not too much the other team can do.
00:42:08But also understand this, Texas' defense is elite, but Texas' defense will foul.
00:42:14And if you look at Xavier, they get to the free throw line.
00:42:17And when they do, almost 80% as a team.
00:42:21The small things in a close game really add up.
00:42:23So in X's and O's wise, I like Xavier.
00:42:26The eye test and coming out of the SEC, I like Texas.
00:42:30When it boils down to that, I'm probably just going to take the points with Texas tonight.
00:42:34It's a razor-thin handicap, but that's the way I line it up tonight in Dayton.
00:42:37A great three-point shooting team, as Donnie said.
00:42:40Sixth best in the country, 38.8% for the Musketeers.
00:42:44Nearly 80% from the charity stripe.
00:42:47In a game that features a three-and-a-half point spread, how critical could that be?
00:42:52They also assist on 64% of their made field goals.
00:42:56That is the fourth highest rate in the country.
00:42:59Xavier, kind of like North Carolina, because the overall resume wasn't great in terms of beating the best.
00:43:04Just one quad-one win.
00:43:06Had to go on a run to end out the regular season.
00:43:09They won seven games.
00:43:10They beat Creighton in the Cintas Center in Cincinnati.
00:43:14That wasn't technically a quad-one victory based on the Blue Jays' net ranking.
00:43:19But they did cover in five of those seven to end out the regular season.
00:43:23DRS, our first game tonight in Dayton.
00:43:25It's the Mount, Mount St. Mary's, taking on American, the champions out of the Patriot League.
00:43:31AU booked as a short two-and-a-half point favorite.
00:43:34Your initial thoughts on this game.
00:43:35We'll break it down later in the hour.
00:43:37Yeah, no, we'll have some fun on this, too.
00:43:39But American, again, live and die by the three-point shot.
00:43:41Sometimes they like to shoot it.
00:43:42They shoot it decently.
00:43:43But also, as we pointed out yesterday, Ben, just that quick precursor.
00:43:47You got to take care of the basketball if you want to win basketball games at this level.
00:43:52Mount St. Mary's, they don't do that.
00:43:54It's going to be a really interesting first four matchup tonight in Dayton.
00:43:59More on the Overline next.
00:44:00Our second night of the first four in Dayton, Ohio.
00:44:04A doubleheader of games before we get to the full madness.
00:44:07Officially beginning on a Thursday with the round of 64.
00:44:12But the 2025 men's NCAA tournament already underway.
00:44:16He is Donnie. I am Ben.
00:44:18Let's break down our doubleheader of games that we have tonight in Dayton.
00:44:22We will start with the nightcap.
00:44:23A matchup of the 11 seeds in the Midwest region.
00:44:27Two of the final four teams in the field of 68.
00:44:30It's Xavier out of the Big East in Texas.
00:44:34Hailing now from the SEC.
00:44:36This line opened on Sunday evening, DRS, at 2.5 points in favor of the Musketeers.
00:44:42Earlier this morning, it got up to 3.5 in favor of Xavier.
00:44:46Now back down to just two and a hook in favor of Sean Miller's crew.
00:44:50A total at 151 and a hook.
00:44:53We started to break down this game to begin our number three.
00:44:57But maybe people just paying attention for the first time.
00:45:00Where do you start your handicap for the nightcap in Dayton?
00:45:03Yeah, once again, starting the handicap where I'm trusting that the SEC is as deep as it was during the regular season.
00:45:10That will extend into March Madness.
00:45:12Where you're going to give those teams the benefit of the doubt because of how hard of a schedule they played.
00:45:17Not necessarily the victories on the opposite end.
00:45:19That's what you have to lean on.
00:45:20As I joked about, you just look at Ken Palm where there's a green with victories and there's red in losses.
00:45:25There's a lot of red on Texas.
00:45:27So you're trusting that, hey, you know what?
00:45:29If we get to play a team that's not as good in our league, we should be able to handle our business because iron sharpens iron.
00:45:35But that's not necessarily how it always works out.
00:45:38You take a look at Xavier's offense, as we said.
00:45:40Is it spectacular?
00:45:41Not necessarily.
00:45:4251 in adjusted efficiency nationally.
00:45:44They don't turn the basketball over, but they do shoot the lights out from three-point range.
00:45:48And quite frankly, sometimes you come in and it's good to get a background because some teams last night did not struggle shooting the three.
00:45:55You know what would lose you, make you nervous?
00:45:57Hey, man, those rims were tight last night.
00:45:59Two lower scoring games most easily stayed under the total.
00:46:02And then you worry about, ooh, can Xavier buck that trend here?
00:46:04Because you know they want to shoot the three-point shot.
00:46:06Having said that, though, Texas is a decent defending team.
00:46:09And again, the Xs and Os say Xavier will shoot the three-point shot and make a good portion of those.
00:46:14But also, it's really an anomaly.
00:46:16Most teams, Ben, that shoot a lot of three-point shots, they're not looking to get to the line, get into the paint and get to the free-throw line.
00:46:22It's almost opposite for Xavier.
00:46:23Like, they do a really good job with point distribution at scoring from the free-throw line.
00:46:27So if I'm saying that Texas, 319th in the country at fouling, and Xavier likes to get the free-throw line and will shoot the lights out from the three-point line
00:46:35and also shoot close to 80% as a team on the season, those Xs and Os advantages actually go towards Xavier for me, Ben, than towards Texas.
00:46:45It is really interesting, DRS, because you are right.
00:46:48Xavier should be, as they are here, booked as a favorite.
00:46:52We'll talk about the resumes, where both of these teams come from, and why this is an intriguing matchup in just a moment.
00:46:59But if you're breaking down this game, there are not many better shooting teams nationally in college hoops than that of Sean Miller and his Musketeers.
00:47:0938.8% from three, sixth-highest shooting percentage from deep in the country.
00:47:15They are nearly an 80% free-throw shooting team.
00:47:18That's top ten in college basketball as well.
00:47:21So if they get to the foul line, they're going to take advantage.
00:47:23If you leave them an open three or even one that is slightly contested, more than likely Xavier is going to take advantage.
00:47:30When Jon Rothstein was on the show, he'll be covering the game in Dayton tonight.
00:47:33Ryan Conwell is a guy that he highlighted.
00:47:36His three-point field goal percentage this year, better than 41%.
00:47:41A sharpshooter indeed for the Musketeers.
00:47:44But where is Texas most sound, perhaps?
00:47:46On the defensive side of the floor.
00:47:48And the Longhorns do not present you many available opportunities to just hoist those great looks from deep either.
00:47:55And Donnie, to your point now about the Big East versus the SEC.
00:47:59When we look at the SEC, getting 14 schools, a record-setting 14 bids into the NCAA tournament, is everybody deserving?
00:48:08Or playing in the SEC, do you get to boost your numbers just a tad so that losing 12 games in conference action,
00:48:16as the Longhorns did, is not reflected as poorly because, well, there's no bad losses.
00:48:21This league is a gauntlet.
00:48:23We are going to start to find out.
00:48:25And that really begins tonight for Texas.
00:48:28One thing I will say, for a Longhorns team that lost seven of its final nine games to end out the regular season,
00:48:36a big missing component for Rodney Terry and Texas was Kendall Weaver.
00:48:40Now, if you look at the numbers for Kendall Weaver, it's not like he's a 25-point-per-game scorer by any means.
00:48:46But he does everything for Terry's Texas team on the defensive end of the floor.
00:48:50He's a great rebounder.
00:48:52He's a great glue guy.
00:48:54It allows Tremont Mark to get back to his facilitator role as that point guard.
00:48:58It allows the sensational freshman Trey Johnson to focus most on what he does best.
00:49:03That is scoring the basketball time and again.
00:49:07So when you look at this now healthy Texas team, as we saw on display,
00:49:11with two very quality wins in Nashville in the SEC tournament over two tournament teams,
00:49:16Vanderbilt in Texas A&M, maybe that gives you more optimism that now healthy Texas can figure it out.
00:49:23Yeah, and it's a good point because sometimes outside of those X's and O's,
00:49:28you want to get some of these better players back here.
00:49:30Some of these players are going to pick it up.
00:49:32We talk about Cooper Flagg.
00:49:33Like, what are we going to get out of him?
00:49:34Well, we don't know until we see it because he was injured, and that's the last time we saw it.
00:49:38So Texas getting back a player that's not just jumping in cold like,
00:49:41hey, Ben, he might be good to go seven, eight minutes.
00:49:43Like, no, he's going to be back full go because he's played in a couple games.
00:49:46And also Texas had some success outside of the Tennessee game for him.
00:49:50Now I'm trying to take a look right now where I say, which way would you like to bet this game?
00:49:54Because there are correlations out here.
00:49:56And if I'm taking a look at, you know, the scoring markets,
00:49:59let me just go to player points here on the Vanderbilt Sportsbook
00:50:02because there's a guy I'm looking at, Ryan Conwell.
00:50:05Seventeen and a half is his points drop.
00:50:08Now, college basketball, probably, oh, that's easy, 25 plus.
00:50:11Seventeen and a half is a pretty lofty number.
00:50:13But understand this.
00:50:14This guy's a three-point maven as well.
00:50:16If I look at Xavier tonight, and I tell you, Ben,
00:50:19Ryan Conwell gets 13 points tonight, I don't think they win this game.
00:50:23And if he gets 18 points, which would hit his number,
00:50:26there's still no guarantee that Xavier wins this game.
00:50:29So if you want a correlation on a player that fits with exactly what Texas is trying to stop
00:50:34and you like to do, that's the guy that I pinpoint for Xavier tonight.
00:50:38If you go over 18 points, legitimate chance they win that game.
00:50:41But he can also, as I said, score 18 points and they lose.
00:50:44I don't think that Xavier wins this game if, let's just say, he just barely cracks double digits.
00:50:49So maybe a correlation on a points drop to the game winner
00:50:52or at least better betting tonight for you might be Ryan Conwell for Xavier.
00:50:5838 points just last week in Madison Square Garden
00:51:01and a tough loss for Xavier against Marquette in their opener in the Big East Tournament.
00:51:06He was 7-of-11 from deep.
00:51:08Again, he is a 41.8% three-point shooter this year.
00:51:12He has had five consecutive games, that being Ryan Conwell, of at least 20 points scored.
00:51:18And as we highlighted for North Carolina, we'll do the same for Xavier.
00:51:22They are 1-of-9 in Quad One games this year.
00:51:26They understood the task at hand.
00:51:27They could not suffer any bad losses down the home stretch of this season.
00:51:31They won their final seven regular season games, including NCC against Creighton.
00:51:36Technically based on net rankings, that was not a Quad One win against the Blue Jays,
00:51:40but a win against a tournament-quality team, of course, in CU.
00:51:44This would be considered a step up in competition, perhaps.
00:51:48Texas has seven Quad One victories.
00:51:51The SEC allows it.
00:51:52The Longhorns also have five Quad Two losses.
00:51:55The SEC allows it.
00:51:57What wins out tonight, Donnie?
00:51:59I think you're spot-on in the assessment of Ryan Conwell, by the way,
00:52:02because if Xavier is going to beat Texas, if the Musketeers are going to cover,
00:52:07you would expect a three-point shot to be great tonight in Dayton.
00:52:11Not a far trip from Cincinnati.
00:52:13Should be a lot of Musketeers fans in attendance tonight inside UD Arena.
00:52:17Yeah, certainly should be.
00:52:18And you're just taking a look, like, going down of what needs to happen,
00:52:21like, plus 198 to make four three-point shots.
00:52:24And the NBA is like, hey, it's Steph Curry range.
00:52:25If you want to make three three-point shots for Ryan Conwell, minus 130.
00:52:29It shows that the expectations are there where he can make that three-point shot,
00:52:32but you're not even getting plus money for three three-point shots made
00:52:36in the collegiate market here, which is a tough price, which is why, to me,
00:52:39yes, he probably needs to hit three three-point shots in order to get to 17.5,
00:52:43but I just look at that 17.5 number and say, let's just play this game out.
00:52:46If he has a great game, you'll be able to cash that ticket,
00:52:49not worry about the final score.
00:52:50If he has a poor game and Xavier wins, that just might be an indictment on Texas,
00:52:53like, hey, man, wins actually do matter, not just who you play.
00:52:57We'll find out tonight.
00:52:58But to me, a true coin flip tonight between Xavier and Texas,
00:53:01where I probably lean towards taking the points with Texas.
00:53:04A very veteran team in Xavier.
00:53:07Marcus Foster, the Furman transfer, Ryan Conwell,
00:53:10who we are highlighting, the Indiana State transfer,
00:53:12and one of the staples of this program, Zach Fremantle, still reigns the pain.
00:53:18The first game and the first four tonight.
00:53:20Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid,
00:53:23we've got one more night of the first four in Dayton,
00:53:26and then by the time we are speaking tomorrow,
00:53:28it is a full-blown preview of every single game we will see in the round of 64.
00:53:33On Thursday, DRS and myself will get you set at 8 a.m. Eastern time.
00:53:39But let's not skip ahead, because we've got some great NCAA tournament action
00:53:43on this Wednesday night.
00:53:45And, Donnie, if our matchup of 16 seeds tonight,
00:53:47hailing from that East region, are anywhere as good as what we saw a night ago,
00:53:54then we're in for another thrilling start very early in the big dance
00:53:58here in the month of March.
00:54:01It is Mountain Saint Mary's, the champions of the MAAC,
00:54:04a 16 seed on to the big dance against American University,
00:54:08the champions out of the Patriot League,
00:54:11tonight for the first game in Dayton.
00:54:13AU, that would be American University.
00:54:15The Eagles, a two-and-a-half point favorite.
00:54:18And, Donnie, that's a pretty minimal total at 128-and-a-half.
00:54:22How do you break down the matchup, our first game tonight in Dayton?
00:54:25Yeah, there's a couple of those numbers here,
00:54:27just to take a look at where they've been.
00:54:29That opening number was 134-and-a-half.
00:54:32We're down a touchdown in this game at 128-and-a-half.
00:54:34And I imagine that if we look at 129-and-a-half
00:54:37or 127-and-a-half as that closing number,
00:54:40we're probably more likely to put the money on the 127-and-a-half.
00:54:43Now, the line itself, though, Bennett Vandal here in New Jersey,
00:54:45opened up at two-and-a-half, still staying at two-and-a-half,
00:54:47so a pretty good line movement here in this game.
00:54:50So if you're trying to track that and say which side are the people going on,
00:54:53pretty even movement right here, which is a great handicap,
00:54:55and there are some intricacies to take a look at.
00:54:58Like first-leg competition, not necessarily,
00:55:00but these two teams are in the same ballpark.
00:55:02Both not all that efficient, but sometimes you do just look at things
00:55:06that one team just doesn't do well,
00:55:08as opposed to what the other team does really well.
00:55:10And that pointing out Mount St. Mary's offensive strategy
00:55:13of turning the basketball over just about every time they get it,
00:55:16it feels like shouldn't work out in their favor,
00:55:18but they actually won their conference championship.
00:55:20They're 359th in the country.
00:55:22And again, just putting these numbers in simpler terms,
00:55:25one out of every five trips up the court and a little bit more,
00:55:28they turn the basketball over and don't get a shot.
00:55:30Protecting the basketball is always key to your environment.
00:55:32Also understand this.
00:55:34Like American isn't great by any stretch.
00:55:36252nd in the country at adjusted efficiency.
00:55:39They don't rebound the basketball very well,
00:55:41and they don't get to the free throw line.
00:55:42Now Mount St. Mary's doesn't fail that much.
00:55:44Here's where the components come in.
00:55:45And again, last night gives me a little bit more optimism
00:55:48when you're talking about the three ball.
00:55:49American, 58th in the country, 44.5, let's just say 45%, call it there.
00:55:55Their total attempts come from the three-point shot.
00:55:57Now Mount St. Mary's will defend it, but at the same time,
00:56:01I'm just looking for a comfortability of an offense that goes,
00:56:04we'll let you shoot the three-point shot.
00:56:05We'll defend it a little bit, but that's a comfort level for American.
00:56:08So just keeping it simple for me tonight.
00:56:10I like American just because one team will turn the basketball over
00:56:13and one team will let you shoot the three-point shot.
00:56:15You're not doing anything drastic here.
00:56:17Give me American tonight in this game.
00:56:20Yeah, DRS, American shoots it pretty well, right?
00:56:23And I think their key player who was on display in that Patriot League final
00:56:27in D.C., Matt Rogers, a guy that shoots above 40% from deep,
00:56:31should have a good night.
00:56:32Points prompt for Rogers tonight, leading the Eagles 17-and-a-half.
00:56:37We saw how critical the turnover battle can be.
00:56:39It was the matchup that we highlighted for yesterday's first game
00:56:43in the first four between Alabama State and St. Francis PA.
00:56:47The Red Flash were nearly 50% from three.
00:56:51They were 50% from the floor, but they had 15 turnovers.
00:56:55Alabama State does not turn the basketball over.
00:56:58They only had six.
00:56:59They had six.
00:57:00They had so many more shots last night.
00:57:02I believe, what were the final numbers?
00:57:04St. Francis had 48 shots and Alabama State had 70?
00:57:09Over 20-plus shots.
00:57:10Yeah, 20-plus shot attempts more on one side.
00:57:12Yep.
00:57:13And, Donnie, as we were breaking it down yesterday,
00:57:15you said if that leads to six or seven more possessions in a game
00:57:18that is supposed to be decided by just a few points,
00:57:21the Hornets were a three-and-a-half-point favorite.
00:57:23That could be critical.
00:57:24We're talking way more than six or seven possessions in that instant
00:57:28and it did cost at the end there for St. Francis
00:57:32a turnover after the missed free throw
00:57:34in the final 15 or 10 seconds of regulation
00:57:36that allowed the Hail Mary to happen for the Hornets
00:57:39and now they live on in March infamy forever.
00:57:43That is what we are hoping for tonight.
00:57:46American is a solid team.
00:57:47Second year under Dwayne Simpkins, they are in to the big dance.
00:57:51First year under Donnie Lynn at the Mount,
00:57:53they are in to the NCAA tournament.
00:57:56Two coaches that have not been in their spots for all that long
00:58:00that have already reached the pinnacle that you can for these sports.
00:58:04Mount St. Mary's was not expected to win the MAAC.
00:58:07They did.
00:58:08They pulled off the upset in the title game over Iona
00:58:12and Iona wasn't even a favorite to win the MAAC either.
00:58:14It was Quinnipiac entering that conference tournament.
00:58:17American was not the favorite in the Patriot League
00:58:20and often in Patriot League action,
00:58:22we have seen Colgate be dominant the last few years
00:58:25at you taking advantage of the opportunity.
00:58:28Like you DRS, I lean with the Eagles tonight
00:58:31but what I hope once again that we see
00:58:33is another instant classic in Dayton first for action
00:58:37on full display like last night
00:58:39between Alabama State and St. Francis PA.
00:58:41Exactly.
00:58:42Take a look at the spread there.
00:58:43We are anticipating a close game
00:58:44and neither one of these teams are going to get out and run.
00:58:46I don't put it this way.
00:58:48If there are two games tonight
00:58:49that we are looking at that 2.5 or so point spread,
00:58:51which game do you figure would be decided by 10 points or more?
00:58:53I don't think it's going to be the first game to be honest.
00:58:55I think the more likelihood of one team possibly running away
00:58:58would be game number two
00:58:59and also understand this in the Patriot League,
00:59:01like Colgate is that team that you sort of want to hunt down.
00:59:04Late in the season, beat Colgate.
00:59:06Early in the season, beat Colgate.
00:59:08In the tournament in the Patriot League,
00:59:10beat Colgate once again.
00:59:11That was your boys from American here along with Lafayette
00:59:13and also you like to leave that lasting stamp.
00:59:15Like they didn't sneak in like after beating Navy 74 to 71,
00:59:1974 to 52.
00:59:20They're off in style in this game.
00:59:22I just think overall they're the better team.
00:59:24A couple of components that I do like, but once again,
00:59:26we're not talking about 10, 15 point spreads here.
00:59:28Both of these under three.
00:59:30Fantastic stuff on the anticipation tonight of two close games,
00:59:33we hope.
00:59:34And the reason we see 128 and a half is because American plays
00:59:39at a very slow tempo.
00:59:42349th in the country out of 364 teams
00:59:46and they really take their time in the half court sets.
00:59:50The Mount will allow you to do so on the defensive end of the
00:59:53floor.
00:59:54That is our first game up American University,
00:59:56a two and a half point favorite.
00:59:58They are taking on Mount St.
01:00:01Mary's.
01:00:02Our nightcap, Texas and Xavier, the Musketeers,
01:00:05a two and a half point favorite against the Longhorns.
01:00:08DRS, we now send you in to the money line,
01:00:12but when we are back both together tomorrow,
01:00:15starting at 8 a.m.
01:00:16Eastern time,
01:00:17it's a preview of the round of 64, my friend,
01:00:19one of, if not the best days you will ever see in the sports calendar.
01:00:23Absolutely.
01:00:25And by the way, last check here on American from Washington,
01:00:27D.C.
01:00:28They got two big wins on their schedule.
01:00:29They actually beat Puerto Rico and Notre Dame bonus points.
01:00:31Their team's ready to go.
01:00:33You know who the Mount beat?
01:00:35Miami earlier in the year as well.
01:00:39More on the Overline after.