This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 12/03/2025.
We say goodbye to the cold arctic air, with the return of milder but wetter and windier weather from the west.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
We say goodbye to the cold arctic air, with the return of milder but wetter and windier weather from the west.
Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00There's no denying at the moment it's pretty chilly out there even though
00:04there's some decent sunshine also a scattering of showers but all changes as
00:09we go through this 10-day period. Let's start off though looking at the bigger
00:12picture as we go into Thursday and the reason why it's so chilly at the moment
00:16it's high pressure to the northwest of us and because of the position of this
00:20we are dragging in our air from the north and if we track that back it's
00:25coming from the Arctic a cold location and so no wonder that we have chilly air
00:29across us and so temperatures are at least on paper a little bit below
00:33average for the time of year but if we go through Thursday then a bit of a
00:36chilly start and some showers mainly in areas exposed that northerly wind
00:41initially so northern parts of Scotland eastern coastal areas as well but I
00:45think as we go through the day those showers becoming a bit more widespread
00:48pushing a bit further west and southwest where some of those showers will be a
00:52bit wintry some sleet some snow over higher ground to lower levels really
00:56just maybe a mix of hail and rain at times and some of them could be a little
01:00bit on the heavy side but there should be some bright or sunny spells in
01:04between the showers worth noting though like I said temperature is still a
01:07little bit below average for the time of year mid to high single figures really
01:11at best for most of us but on Thursday the winds are going to be a little bit
01:16lighter than we've seen through some recent days less of a wind chill so
01:19perhaps feeling slightly less chilly for some places a few more showers to come
01:24across some many areas as we go through the evening but overnight most places
01:28turning largely dry just a few showers continuing in the east however a zone of
01:32something a little bit cloudier a bit wetter pushing its way southwards across
01:35Scotland into Northern Ireland and later Northern England and perhaps North Wales
01:40as we go through Friday morning there will be some wintryness mixed in with
01:43us I'll talk about that in a second otherwise as we go through into the
01:47afternoon a rash of showers across many places perhaps towards the west avoiding
01:52the worst of these but yes plenty of showers and again some could be on the
01:56heavy side the odd rumble of thunder not out of the question and still some
01:59sleet some snow mixed in with them and a bit of hail perhaps at times as well
02:04temperatures on Friday look fairly similar to Thursday really worth bearing
02:08in mind though in the far northwest it could be quite windy to start and some
02:11blustery winds possible in the southeast later on otherwise generally light winds
02:16like I said there will be some wintryness around as we go through Friday
02:19if we look at the freezing levels and this is the height above sea level at
02:23which we have zero degrees and it plays a role in whether or not we see sleet or
02:28snow and as that system that I mentioned pushes its way southwards through the
02:32early hours across parts of Scotland some relatively low freezing levels here
02:35hence why we are going to see some sleet some snow perhaps a bit of snow
02:38settling over some modest higher ground and even some relatively low freezing
02:42levels further south so some of those showers are likely to be wintry but
02:47let's look towards the weekend and the high pressure that was to the northwest
02:51of us by Saturday will have pushed its way a little bit closer and it's going
02:55to dominate our weather if you watch our 10-day trends and our other content
02:59you'll likely know high pressure often settles our weather down and it is going
03:03to do that this time but with that also worth noting we still have the chilly
03:07air across us so no drastic rise in our temperatures just yet so a relatively
03:12chilly start on Saturday morning especially across northern parts here we
03:16will have some clear skies so a bit of frost around some icy patches some fog
03:20some freezing fog for some temperatures perhaps in rural spots getting as low as
03:24minus five maybe minus six possibly even colder than this but further south a bit
03:29milder perhaps still chilly a touch of frost not out of the question but not as
03:33cold as further north as we go through the day however with that high pressure
03:37firmly in control it's looking largely fine one or two showers perhaps but most
03:41of us avoiding these and a good deal of dry bright sunny weather to be had
03:45though across Orkney Shetland here it is going to be cloudy and there will be a
03:48little bit of rain pushing through now temperatures on paper they look
03:52relatively similar to the next couple of days high single-vigors maybe just about
03:56scraping into double digits so slightly higher but it is always worth factoring
04:00in with generally light winds for most of us and there will be some decent
04:04sunny weather around it's not feeling too bad temperatures in the sunshine
04:08well it will feel a bit warmer markedly warmer in the sunshine it has got some
04:12decent warmth behind it now at this time of year later on and as we go into
04:18Sunday the one thing that we need to look at is the fact that there's even
04:22colder a bit further north just to the west of Scandinavia and in between this
04:26even colder air in the chilly air that we have across the UK there's a slice of
04:31something a little bit milder and within this zone there's a bit more cloud and
04:36even a bit of rain and all of that is going to push its way southwards as we
04:40go through Sunday's there is a front indicating that we likely to see a spell
04:44of cloud and rain pushing its way into parts of Scotland as we go through the
04:48early hours of Sunday so a cloudier start here as a result not as chillier
04:53start here as it will be on Saturday morning but conversely across more
04:57central southern parts it's a different story it's going to be perhaps colder on
05:01Sunday morning than it will have been on Saturday morning so greater chance of
05:05some frosts greater chance of some perhaps icy patches if there's still
05:09any wet surfaces anywhere and also a greater chance of some mist fog freezing
05:14fog patches developing as well as we go through the day on Sunday that zone of
05:19cloud without breaks of rain will feed a little bit further southwards across
05:22much of Scotland into Northern Ireland perhaps Northern England as well later
05:26on but further south a greater chance of staying largely dry perhaps a bit
05:30cloudier for many places than Saturday but actually towards the far south
05:34southeast in particular Kent for example likely to cling on to the largely sunny
05:38skies and temperatures for many similar perhaps a degree or so higher than on
05:42Saturday for some places so high single figures low double digits perhaps as we
05:47go through later on Sunday and overnight into Monday the cloud the outbreaks of
05:52rain none of it especially heavy but all pushes its way southward so as we go
05:56into Monday itself a bit of a messy day there will be more cloud around than
06:00we'll have had over the weekend and it is going to be damper outbreaks of rain
06:04but none of this looks especially heavy because we still have high pressure
06:08relatively close to the UK but this is the 10-day trend so let's look further
06:13ahead and here's the probability plot showing the most likely setups that
06:17we're going to have through the next couple of weeks and the Reds indicate
06:21higher pressure more settled weather and as we go through next week blues
06:25becoming more more likely and with that and change to something a bit more
06:30changeable a bit more unsettled looks pretty likely as we go through next week
06:34there is relatively good agreement that we are going to see that change to
06:38something more unsettled but exactly when it happens and how severe or how
06:43drastic it is if it is drastic at all well that's still all to play for and
06:47actually as we go on beyond next week there's relatively high uncertainty
06:53that's beyond this 10-day trend period though so I'm not going to worry about
06:56that for now if we look at the most likely setup for next Tuesday the 18th
07:00of March and it still has high pressure not too far away quite a big area of
07:04high pressure over Scandinavia and a bit further east but I think by then
07:08there's a good chance that we'll be more under the influence of low pressure
07:11somewhere towards the west of us and because of this setup it changes where
07:15our wind will be coming from so we say goodbye to that northerly that we have
07:18at the moment and instead our wind will most likely be coming from the southeast
07:23now that's a milder warmer direction so we are gradually going to be seeing our
07:28temperatures rising not a huge jump up just yet but nonetheless we're going to
07:32see our temperatures rising we could see some sherry bus mixed in with this
07:35worth looking at the second most likely setup it's not drastically different
07:40still low pressure to the west of us but it's a bit further away and actually the
07:44high pressure is a little bit closer and so that means we'd still have a bit more
07:48of an easterly that's a slightly chillier direction at this time of year
07:51than a southeasterly so that might delay perhaps the slight rise in our
07:55temperatures for a little while so like I said before there is some uncertainty
07:59as to how quickly we see this transition to something milder and more changeable
08:02but it is coming now let's look further ahead and for next Wednesday here we
08:06have the first second and third most likely setups and they all show
08:11relatively similar ideas low pressure somewhere towards the west or perhaps
08:15towards the the northwest of the UK maybe even very close towards the
08:19northwest if we look at the third most likely but that all goes with the idea
08:23that our wind direction is going to gradually change as we go through next
08:27week so it's going to go from us east southeasterly round to a southerly and
08:31then eventually if we just go ahead a couple of days his Thursday a
08:34southwesterly becomes more likely and then if we go even further still and by
08:39Friday well the most likely setup has low pressure somewhere towards Iceland
08:43in which case we'd have quite a westerly flow and looking at those ice bars
08:46they're relatively strong with the transition to southwest or westerly wind
08:53that means a couple of things our weather is going to become more
08:56changeable more mobile and so we're likely to see some wet and windy weather
09:01coming through from the west and southwest and so yeah it is going to be
09:05more unsettled particularly towards western southwestern parts that's where
09:09we're most likely to have the wet weather I would expect with this kind of
09:12setup for some rain to push its way through so it's not going to be
09:16completely dry towards the east northeast but wetter towards the west
09:19southwest as we often see but another big talking point will be those rises or
09:24that rise in temperatures we are going to see milder warmer air pushing its way
09:29in so let's look at the meteorograms from ECMWF for our capital cities now
09:32I'm aware these capital cities don't cover every inch of the UK but they give
09:36a good trend and a good idea and if we take one for example Cardiff and you can
09:41see at the moment temperatures both by day and by night are quite markedly
09:46below average for the time of year especially by night we have some chilly
09:50frosty nights at the moment like I've already discussed but sticking below
09:54average as we go through the weekend then gradually rising up as we go
09:58through next week with that change we change our wind direction we get that
10:02unsettled changeable weather coming through but we also see a rise in our
10:06temperatures now I think by day the rise in temperatures won't necessarily be all
10:11that noticeable because like I said at this time of year when we get the
10:15sunshine of which of which will have a decent amount this weekend it's going to
10:19feel pleasant enough when we flip that with something a bit cloudier wetter
10:24windier probably not feeling that any more pleasant even though temperatures
10:28on paper will be a little bit higher and we'll have that milder air coming
10:31through by night however I think the milder warmer conditions will be a bit
10:36more noticeable so we'll say goodbye to the frosts and the greater chance of
10:41some fog freezing fog perhaps as well and instead our nights are going to
10:45become milder not just because we have milder air across us but also because
10:48there'll be spells of rain bit of cloud and some strong winds mixed in so we
10:52don't have the ingredients for temperatures to drop so yeah there is
10:56going to be a change as we go through the next ten days the detail exactly how
11:00unsettled it's going to be it could be pretty wet and windy at times so
11:03definitely one to stay on top of but those details will firm up as we get
11:07nearer the time I'll see you again soon bye bye