En 2029, un astéroïde géant nommé Apophis passera à toute vitesse près de la Terre, s'approchant incroyablement près—plus près que certains satellites ! Les scientifiques disent qu'il ne nous percutera pas (ouf !), mais la rencontre pourrait tout de même être impressionnante. Le rocher spatial massif, d'environ 335 mètres de large, pourrait subir des "séismes astéroïdiens" à cause de la gravité terrestre qui l'attire. Ces séismes pourraient secouer sa surface, projetant poussière et débris dans l'espace. Les astronomes sont extrêmement enthousiastes car cela pourrait leur offrir une occasion rare d'étudier comment les astéroïdes évoluent au fil du temps. Donc, même si nous sommes en sécurité, Apophis va vivre un sacré tourbillon ! 🚀☄️ Animation créée par Sympa.
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FunTranscript
00:00Asteroids are a tangible and worrying threat.
00:04Some reach a size large enough to cause terrible consequences
00:08in case of impact with our planet.
00:10Among them, one in particular is the one these last days.
00:141942, Apophis.
00:17A recent study has revealed that a low probability
00:20subsists for it to collide with Earth
00:22during its approach in 2029.
00:25But a question arises.
00:26Will the asteroid survive this encounter?
00:29Apophis, also known as Apep,
00:31the Egyptian deity embodying chaos and destruction,
00:34is today one of the most feared asteroids.
00:37Discovered in 2004,
00:39this space body measures about 340 meters in diameter,
00:42a height comparable to that of the Eiffel Tower.
00:45Because of its dimensions and its trajectory planned for 2029,
00:49astronomers consider it as a potentially dangerous object.
00:53A category grouping asteroids and other celestial bodies
00:57approaching Earth and having a size large enough
01:00to require rigorous surveillance.
01:02To date, scientists consider the risk of impact to be extremely low,
01:06less than a chance of a billion.
01:08It therefore seems reasonable to say that our planet is not in danger.
01:12The asteroid, on the other hand, could suffer.
01:15When Apophis hits Earth in 2029,
01:18the intense gravitational attraction it will undergo
01:21could shake it with such brutality
01:24that it will experience a phenomenon comparable to an earthquake,
01:27a real astro-seism, in a way.
01:31The force exerted by this gravitational interaction
01:34could cause the fragmentation of certain parts of its surface,
01:38projecting these debris into space.
01:40Although this event is not synonymous with total disintegration,
01:44it is very likely that Apophis will lose a considerable amount of matter
01:48during its passage near our planet.
01:51Some of these fragments could remain in orbit around the asteroid,
01:54while others could drift to the edges of space.
01:58In the long run, such a disruption would affect its rotation,
02:02modifying its movement or inducing an unprecedented inclination.
02:05This phenomenon arouses great interest among researchers,
02:08because it could offer valuable lessons
02:10on how asteroids react
02:12when subjected to powerful gravitational forces.
02:16Let us now return to Earth,
02:18although we have never really left our planet.
02:20It turns out that even if this asteroid does not have the necessary dimensions
02:23to cause a massive extinction,
02:25like the one that destroyed the dinosaurs,
02:28it remains powerful enough to inflict major damage
02:31to a metropolis in the event of an impact.
02:34It could also lead to global climatic disturbances.
02:37For now, forecasts indicate that Apophis will hit our planet
02:41at a distance of around 32,000 km.
02:43This remains extremely close to the cosmic scale,
02:46but far enough to avoid a collision.
02:49To better situate this distance,
02:51it represents less than a tenth of the gap separating the Earth from the Moon.
02:54Thus, even if an impact seems unlikely,
02:57this passage could disturb some satellites in terrestrial orbit,
03:00which will be much closer to Apophis than we are.
03:03The key element to remember
03:05is that the risk of collision could not be completely ruled out before several years.
03:09As the asteroid approaches,
03:11astronomers will closely monitor the evolution of its trajectory
03:16to ensure that it is not deviated by the effect of the Earth's gravitational attraction.
03:20In reality, this force could even induce major transformations
03:24within Apophis itself.
03:26Although Apophis does not directly threaten the survival of humanity,
03:29an impact with the Earth would nevertheless cause serious consequences.
03:33The impact could destroy an entire city,
03:36and the climatic disturbances that would result
03:39could compromise agriculture for several years.
03:42It would certainly not be a planetary-scale cataclysm,
03:45but these repercussions would be far from negligible.
03:48Apophis is not the only celestial threat to be monitored.
03:52Scientists are constantly scrutinizing the sky
03:55in search of other asteroids likely to represent a danger.
03:59And, thanks to recent technological advances,
04:02astronomers are able to detect and track these objects
04:05from considerable distances.
04:07An innovative approach is to observe meteor showers.
04:11These are actually generated by long-period comets
04:14that have been revolving around the Sun for centuries,
04:17even millennia.
04:19As they pass near our star,
04:21they leave dust particles and rocky fragments in their sieges,
04:25which, when they cross the Earth's orbit,
04:27give birth to these sparkling rains.
04:30Scientists examine various parameters related to these phenomena,
04:34including their speed, direction, and origin.
04:38These analyses allow us to identify the asteroid or comet of origin
04:42and, above all, anticipate the trajectory of certain celestial objects
04:46that are dangerous long before they threaten our planet.
04:49The Legacy Survey of Space and Time project,
04:52which will be conducted by the Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile,
04:55promises to strengthen its detection capabilities.
04:57Astronomers plan to elaborate a precise map of the sky
05:01by highlighting the areas where these meteor showers
05:04are most likely to occur.
05:06Thanks to these advances,
05:08it will be possible to determine which asteroids
05:10could pose a long-term threat to the Earth,
05:13thus offering a sufficient delay to design intervention strategies.
05:17However, even today,
05:19several of these celestial bodies pose a serious threat.
05:22Let's look at a few of them.
05:24Let's take the example of the asteroid Bennu,
05:26discovered by astronomers in 1989.
05:29This massive rocky block, rich in carbon,
05:32measures about 500 meters in diameter,
05:34a size equivalent to that of the Shanghai World Financial Center.
05:38To date, it is the largest known threat to our planet.
05:42However, there is no need to panic.
05:45A possible collision would not have taken place long before.
05:48According to the calculations of scientists,
05:50the probability that Bennu will hit Earth on September 24, 2182
05:54is 0.037%,
05:57a chance of 2,700.
05:59If such an impact were to occur,
06:01the released energy would be of such magnitude
06:03that it could shave off a vast area.
06:05Fortunately, an impact from Bennu
06:07would not put the entire planet at risk.
06:10However, if this asteroid came to hit a city,
06:13the damage would be catastrophic.
06:15Recently, NASA's Osiris-Rex probe
06:18took samples from its surface,
06:21allowing scientists to learn more
06:23about its composition and behavior.
06:26Another asteroid is also worth our attention.
06:28Discovered in 1950,
06:30it was only observed again in 2000.
06:33Current calculations indicate
06:35an extremely low probability,
06:37a chance of 34,500,
06:39that it will hit Earth on March 16, 1880.
06:42In more than 800 years,
06:44so much to say that I do not do it personally.
06:46In the event of an impact,
06:47the released energy would be colossal,
06:49capable of causing a catastrophe of planetary magnitude,
06:52with a potential risk of extinction of humanity.
06:55Another asteroid,
06:56spotted much more recently,
06:58is also worth the attention of researchers.
07:00It was discovered in October 2023
07:03and has a small probability,
07:05a chance of 181,000,
07:07to hit Earth on October 10, 1819.
07:10Impressive, they calculated this on the next day.
07:13If a collision were to take place,
07:15the released energy would be enough
07:17to cause devastation on vast areas.
07:19Despite the weakness of this risk,
07:21it remains an object to be monitored.
07:23Here is now an asteroid
07:25which is classified as lost,
07:27because it has not been seen since 2007,
07:29which is not surprising,
07:30as its trajectory is uncertain.
07:32According to NASA,
07:33there is a small possibility,
07:35about 1 in 10 million,
07:37that it will hit Earth on March 3, 2030.
07:40If such an event occurred,
07:42the impact would cause considerable damage
07:44at the regional scale.
07:46Finally, a last vagabond in space
07:48deserves to be mentioned.
07:49His observation dates back to 1979
07:52and scientists estimate
07:54that there is a small probability,
07:561 in 1.8 million,
07:58that it will hit our planet on December 14, 2013.
08:01Note in your agendas,
08:03if the impact were to occur,
08:05the damage would be significant,
08:07but humanity should survive.
08:09Although the probability of a collision
08:11with an asteroid remains low,
08:13the consequences of such an event
08:14could be disastrous.
08:16This is why researchers are doubling their efforts
08:18to monitor these objects
08:19and anticipate their trajectory.
08:21Thanks to technological progress,
08:23we are now able to locate
08:25the menacing objects earlier
08:27and follow their evolution with more precision,
08:29which leaves us with a margin of manoeuvre
08:31to develop protection strategies.