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00:00Let's start on the inside for the Rebel, and they throw up some big money at Oak Lawn Park, Alexa.
00:06$1.25 million up for grabs in this Grade 2 Rebel. They'll go a mile and a sixteenth.
00:13Now, because of some really bad weather over in the area, they've actually moved this car.
00:17It was supposed to be run on Saturday, but they pushed it to Sunday.
00:20They just want to have the best possible weather for their big day of racing.
00:24And Cole Battle gets things started. This is a very sharp horse,
00:28and I think he's a little underrated, Alexa. I can see him actually being a horse
00:32who kind of floats up a little bit and doesn't get bet all that much,
00:36but he's sharp. He's won three in a row.
00:37He's versatile, and he's the kind of horse that you like to root for
00:41because he goes out for a smaller barn and smaller connections.
00:43I completely agree. So Cole Battle already has 20 points on the leaderboard for the Derby,
00:48and I think he's a very attractive long shot on that winning streak.
00:52They've added distance every time through his race so far, and he keeps improving each time.
00:57And like you said, he's versatile. He's won from closing from the back.
00:59He's won on the lead. So I think he's really developing into himself as a three-year-old
01:03and makes a lot of sense at ten to one.
01:06Number two, Admiral Dennis goes out for the very good trainer, Brad Cox.
01:10Admiral Dennis comes off a win at Fairgrounds, and in reading some of our Daily Racing Forum articles
01:14that you could find on the website, I think Mary Rampolini takes care of the previews
01:18and stuff for Oaklawn Park. Seemed like Brad Cox is a kind of sneaky high on this horse, Alexa.
01:23Like he's kind of waiting for a really big performance.
01:26So at a fair price, what do you think about Admiral Dennis?
01:30You know, Admiral Dennis has never not gone off the favorite. This will be the first time that happens.
01:34His one half of his starts to be lost. I do think he had some excuses.
01:39Not the greatest starts in those races, but I think he'll need to improve in here.
01:43And this is the hardest competition. So I'm kind of lukewarm on Admiral Dennis.
01:48Here's the number three. Enter Sandman, who I think is the horse to beat in here, in my opinion.
01:53He's coming off of a really good runner-up effort. He's actually installed as the 4-1 lukewarm favorite in this field.
02:01It just kind of shows you how wide open and how challenging this field is.
02:05But I guess my only knock on him would be, Alexa, that he's not all that fast early, right?
02:11So he does seem like he is the horse that kind of needs a little bit of pace up front to run at,
02:15but he didn't have the smoothest of trips. He came rolling last time out.
02:18I think they're going to all have to hold him off.
02:21I love Sandman. Sandman has 14 points.
02:23So I actually got to watch his performance in the Southwest live on air for our Pegasus broadcast
02:28with one of his owners and influencer, Griffin Johnson.
02:31And when I tell you, there's a added bit of pressure and stress when you're watching somebody's horse race live on TV.
02:38Because first of all, you're like, please have a safe trip. And second of all, you're like, please don't suck.
02:43Yeah, oh well. Everything goes smooth.
02:45And it looked like it was going to be bad,
02:47because Sandman like fell almost to his knees out of the gate in the Southwest.
02:51And then he almost won. He had so much grit. He came back.
02:54It did not get discouraged. And it was so exciting.
02:58So we got second in that race. And I just think he's a gritty horse who can adapt.
03:02And that's something you want when you're looking at the Derby,
03:04where you're going to be in a field of 20 horses. He's my pick this weekend.
03:08Love the major players in this race down towards the inside.
03:11And even the four of Hypnos, who's only raced once, has a really nice pedigree.
03:15The Dam was a grade one winner, won the first five starts.
03:17And the race that he has won has already come back live.
03:21My knock would be he won that race on a sloppy track.
03:24So was it the sloppy track that might have aided him?
03:27But I think he still has a lot of talent. Very talented trainer,
03:30Kenny McPeak, who won the Derby and Oaks last year.
03:33So this is the toughest, obviously, he'll have tried,
03:35but there's nothing to indicate he won't be up to the task. He's viable here for sure.
03:40Matticat Road comes in for Bob Baffert.
03:42He finished third in the Bob Lewis last time out,
03:45and he was behind a couple other Bob Baffert runners.
03:48One of them, Citizen Bull, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile,
03:51which is that championship race for horses of this age group.
03:54So Matticat Road is a horse that we know can kind of sit behind and pass horses.
04:00Alexa, he can be a closer, which is positive.
04:02Do you like him in this spot? I've decided to fade him.
04:05I think he's a very talented horse, but from an odd standpoint,
04:08I think he'll probably be second favorite.
04:11And he's, you know, been in California running in much smaller fields of five or seven horses.
04:16So from a value standpoint, I've chosen to fade him.
04:19Yeah, same for me. It's just like, like others more. Not even that I have really many knocks on him.
04:23It's just going to be, it'll be a shortish price,
04:25and I just feel like we could get some value elsewhere.
04:28Publisher comes off of kind of a lackluster performance,
04:31but did have some legitimate trouble, was 53-1 that day though.
04:35Can you make a case for him in here? I'm passing on him.
04:38You know, he's still a maiden, meaning he's never won in five starts,
04:40and I think this is a very difficult spot to try to grab that first win.
04:44Dreamin' Blue broke his maiden last time out.
04:46That's the number seven. The only problem is, Alexa, that was going six furlongs,
04:50and now he'll have to stretch out to a mile and a sixteenth. Any thoughts on this one?
04:54This, exactly what you said, is a distance question.
04:57You know, he's had impressive, he's running well, but at such shorter distances.
05:01His trainer wins 17% of the time when he stretches him out to longer distance,
05:04which is kind of like an average success rate.
05:06So, it's kind of a maybe. D-Wayne Lucas had a close second in the Sunland Derby over the weekend.
05:14He'll come back here with Innovator, the number eight,
05:16who's flashed very good speed in almost all of his races.
05:19Feels like he'll at least be part of the early pace in here, Alexa.
05:23He will. He'll want that early lead. The only time he's been successful, though,
05:27in grabbing that and keeping it, was a much shorter race in the mud.
05:30So, I don't think that bodes super well for him this weekend.
05:33Exactly. His win, six furlongs in the mud.
05:36This is a mile and a sixteenth, probably on a faster track.
05:39We go to the nine, Smoke Em Wicked, who is a really, really sharp Louisiana bred.
05:44This horse has won three in a row, and we don't really know how good he is
05:48because he's just kind of been toying with his rivals.
05:50He'll have to stretch out in here. What do you think about the nine, Smoke Em Wicked?
05:54Yeah, like Gino said, he's been running against state bred races,
05:56which means, you know, other horses bred in Louisiana.
05:59So, this is an open race. You're naturally going to have a tougher level of competition.
06:04He's a quick, quick horse. So, I think he can compete here.
06:08Bullard, the number ten, he actually won his first two starts in Southern California.
06:13One of them was a grade three race. He came back into San Vicente,
06:16and he faced Barnes, who is a Bob Baffert trainee, and he's at the very top of this age group.
06:21He's one of the best ones we've seen so far.
06:24Bullard does have the ability to kind of sit back and close.
06:27Alexa, do you like him at all in here?
06:29I don't like him from an odd standpoint. I was surprised to see five to one morning line.
06:33I'm not playing him at that.
06:35Speed King won the Southwest, which is one of the local prep races at Oaklawn Park last time out,
06:40and he is very aptly named because he's fast. He's drawn towards the outside.
06:45What do you think about his chances?
06:46He's a pure speedster, and he has the best chance of anyone in here to get to the front and wire the field.
06:52So, I think he's also going to be a tough player.
06:55Brereton's Baytown was just facing $40,000 claimers last time out.
06:59This is a big step up. Can you make a case from him?
07:02No.
07:04Just seems up against it. Tiztastic was third in the Southwest last time out, Alexa.
07:08That's the 13. You know, his form isn't that far below some of the better in here.
07:13What about this one?
07:14I don't think he wins, but I could see him getting third again.
07:17He's good at hitting the board. You know, he's a closer, but I think Saman's a stronger closer.
07:21Hot Gunner rounds out the field, and another one just feels like they're a bit overmatched in here,
07:26and just up against it. So, we move to selections, Alexa.
07:30Take us through selections as we get ready for our first break.
07:34Yep. I've got Saman on top of Speed King and Coal Battle for a little bit of a price.
07:38Lots of similarities there. I think Coal Battle, the one, might be the horse that gets forgotten about a little bit.
07:42If he's 10, 12 to 1 or so, I think that's a very fair price.