Les scientifiques avertissent qu'une éruption volcanique massive pourrait se produire bien plus tôt que nous ne le pensons. Certains des volcans les plus puissants au monde montrent des signes de réveil, et les experts les surveillent de très près. De petits tremblements de terre, la montée du magma et les émissions de gaz indiquent tous qu'un événement majeur se prépare sous terre. Si l'un de ces géants entre en éruption, cela pourrait affecter tout—les vols, la météo, et même les températures mondiales. La bonne nouvelle ? Les scientifiques travaillent dur pour prévoir quand et où cela pourrait se produire. La mauvaise nouvelle ? La nature ne respecte pas toujours les règles. 🌋🔥 Animation créée par Sympa.
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FunTranscript
00:00Frankenstein, a glacial climate and torrents of lava.
00:04Do they have in common?
00:06They all find their origin in the eruption of Mount Tambora.
00:10This Indonesian volcano had such a colossal impact
00:13that its repercussions were still felt in Switzerland a year later,
00:17although these two places are separated by several thousand kilometers.
00:21We could soon face a similar phenomenon.
00:24Stay tuned, because we will show you the exact place
00:28where the next eruption is expected for 2025.
00:34In 1815, Tambora experienced an eruption of unparalleled strength,
00:38projecting a huge cloud of fine particles into the atmosphere.
00:42This atmospheric veil reflected the sun's light,
00:45causing global cooling and even the summer of 1816.
00:51Temperatures have drastically fallen,
00:54causing disastrous crops and causing food shortages all over the world,
00:59exacerbated by many health problems.
01:02Unknown anecdote,
01:03Frankenstein was born due to an abnormally cold summer in 1816.
01:08Mary Shelley, stuck in Switzerland by this glacial climate,
01:12wrote this story to fill her days.
01:14But this was the only positive consequence of this event.
01:17In England and Ireland,
01:19bad crops have caused such a severe famine that it has cost lives.
01:23All this is attributable to the eruption that occurred in Indonesia.
01:27Although several other volcanoes have erupted since,
01:30none have had as dramatic an impact as Tambora.
01:35Marcus Stoffel, professor of climatology at the University of Geneva,
01:39believes that major eruptions are not simply due to chance.
01:43They are inevitable.
01:45So we have the choice
01:47to wait passively or start preparing ourselves today.
01:52This future eruption will occur in a world very different from that of 1815.
01:57The planet is today not only much densely populated,
02:01but it has also undergone irreversible transformations
02:04that shake our daily lives.
02:07If you think that volcanoes are always the big ones to blame,
02:10you are wrong.
02:12In reality, they have played a fundamental role
02:15in the structuring of our planet.
02:17They participate in the formation of lands,
02:20in the development of the atmosphere,
02:22and in the regulation of the climate.
02:24Take Yellowstone, for example.
02:26The thick lava that has spilled to the surface
02:28has irreversibly remodeled the landscape.
02:31When a volcano erupts,
02:33it projects a mixture of lava, ash, and gas,
02:36including carbon dioxide.
02:38But do not be alarmed.
02:40In comparison to the emissions of our fossil fuels,
02:42the amount released by volcanoes is negligible.
02:45What is particularly interesting to scientists is sulfur dioxide,
02:49because its impact on the climate can be significant.
02:54During a major volcanic eruption,
02:56sulfur dioxide can be propelled up to the stratosphere,
02:59at about 11 km in altitude.
03:02Once at this height,
03:04it turns into tiny aerosol particles
03:07that scatter the sunlight,
03:09thus helping to cool the planet.
03:12However, this effect is not immediate.
03:14These particles can remain suspended for several years
03:18and spread throughout the world.
03:20Today, sophisticated equipment allows us to monitor
03:24the emissions of sulfur dioxide from space.
03:27Let's take the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.
03:32About 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide have been released.
03:36Although this amount is considerable,
03:38it remains less than that of Tambora.
03:41Despite everything,
03:42Pinatubo has lowered the global temperature
03:44by nearly 0.5 °C for several years,
03:47as well as Tambora in its time.
03:49This may seem little,
03:51but in reality the consequences are far from insignificant.
03:54If the planet's temperature increases by only 0.5 °C,
03:58the impacts on the sea level could be serious.
04:01Experts estimate that this could lead to an increase
04:05of up to 20 cm by the end of the century,
04:07threatening to swallow up many coastal lands,
04:10with dramatic consequences for many communities.
04:14A volcanic eruption capable of cooling the planet,
04:17could it then be related to a natural regulation mechanism?
04:22Not quite.
04:24Although an eruption can actually cool the planet,
04:27it would be wrong to believe that this represents
04:29the type of cooling we need.
04:31Such temperature variations can seriously disrupt cultures,
04:35as was the case in 1816.
04:38Research also shows that major eruptions
04:41can change the precipitation regimes,
04:43causing a drought in the regions of Mousson in Africa and Asia.
04:47The Mousson of summer depends indeed on the temperature difference
04:50between the earth and the ocean,
04:52a variable that volcanic activity can alter.
04:55Interestingly, a warmer climate
04:57could intensify the cooling effects of eruptions.
05:00Experts explain that the formation and dispersion
05:03of aerosol particles are influenced by climate conditions.
05:07With rising temperatures,
05:09faster atmospheric circulation
05:11can generate smaller aerosol particles,
05:14which are more effective at diffusing sunlight,
05:17and therefore reinforce the cooling effect.
05:20Oceans also play a role in this interaction.
05:23When the ocean surface warms up,
05:25it creates a stratified layer
05:27that limits the mixture of hot and cold waters.
05:30According to Stoffel,
05:32this could mean that volcanic eruptions
05:34mainly cool the upper layers of the ocean
05:37and the atmosphere that overflows them.
05:39In addition, climate warming
05:41could have a direct influence on volcanic systems.
05:45The melting of ice,
05:46by reducing the pressure exerted on the earth's crust,
05:49could facilitate the rise of magma
05:51and increase the frequency of eruptions.
05:53In addition,
05:54the increased precipitation due to warming
05:57could penetrate the soil and interact with the magma,
06:00which could also favor eruptions.
06:03Although the idea of a cooling period
06:05due to a volcanic eruption
06:07may seem advantageous in the context of climate change,
06:10scientists warn that the consequences could be serious.
06:14The immediate repercussions could be severe,
06:17especially for the few 800 million people
06:20living near active volcanoes.
06:22A major eruption could destroy entire cities.
06:26For example,
06:27the Flegraean fields,
06:28located near Naples,
06:29show signs of growing activity
06:31and threaten the safety of nearly a million inhabitants.
06:34If you pass through Oregon,
06:36stay vigilant,
06:37because experts estimate that this state
06:39could be the theater of volcanic eruptions.
06:41Are you afraid?
06:42Rest assured,
06:43the situation is not as alarming as it seems.
06:46Oregon has more than 80 volcanoes,
06:49but none of those located on the surface
06:51cause concern at the moment.
06:53It is an underwater volcano
06:54that could erupt in 2025.
06:58The Axial underwater mountain
07:00is currently the most active volcano
07:02in the northwest of the Pacific.
07:04But it remains largely unknown to the public
07:06due to its location
07:07about 500 km from the coast
07:10and more than 1,500 m under the surface.
07:13Due to its depth
07:15and distance from the Cascadia fault,
07:17its next eruption
07:19should neither cause tsunamis
07:21nor cause major earthquakes.
07:24The data collected during these eruptions
07:26could however improve the surveillance
07:28of potentially more dangerous volcanoes.
07:30We could almost talk about a courtesy eruption,
07:32couldn't we?
07:35Predicting eruptions remains a complex task.
07:38We sometimes read alarming titles
07:40announcing that
07:41Yellowstone is about to erupt.
07:44Should we take these statements seriously?
07:47Not really.
07:48Certainly.
07:49Yellowstone is based on an active supervolcano
07:52that has experienced three major explosive eruptions
07:54over the last 2.1 million years.
07:58The last eruption dates back to about 70,000 years,
08:01while the most important,
08:03which occurred some 631,000 years ago,
08:06formed the immense caldera of Yellowstone.
08:09Many are wondering
08:11if a new eruption is imminent
08:13and, if so,
08:14when it could occur.
08:17Fortunately,
08:18scientists are developing new methods
08:20to better understand these phenomena.
08:23A recent study indicates
08:25that it is unlikely that Yellowstone
08:27will experience a new major eruption in the near future.
08:30The reason lies in the structure of the magma under the park,
08:33which is fragmented into distinct chambers.
08:36Although significant quantities of magma are still present,
08:39they are not sufficiently interconnected
08:41to allow an eruption.
08:44Previous research had suggested
08:46the existence of an immense layer of magma under Yellowstone,
08:49but the latest conclusions
08:50put this hypothesis in question.
08:52To better understand the underground dynamics,
08:55researchers have used the technique of magnetotelluric,
08:59which exploits the natural electromagnetic fields of the Earth
09:02instead of seismic waves.
09:04This method,
09:05particularly adapted to magma
09:07due to its ability to conduct electricity well,
09:10allows to map efficiently the melting rock
09:13and to better understand the underground activity
09:15in the volcanic regions.
09:17Thanks to magnetotelluric,
09:19researchers were able to draw up a detailed map
09:21of the magma under Yellowstone,
09:23thus helping them to refine their predictions
09:25about future eruptions.
09:28But what would happen
09:29if an eruption of the size of that of Tambora
09:31occurred again?
09:33This would cause a real climate chaos.
09:36Although the greatest scientists are actively looking
09:38for a solution to this scenario,
09:40they have not yet found one,
09:42which means that we are not really ready
09:44for a second Tambora.
09:46For now, however,
09:47we can be reassured.
09:49No major eruption is planned.
09:51Ouf!