Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:0020 points will be awarded to the winner.
00:02There's only a field of seven in here,
00:04Alexa, and to be honest,
00:06the Withers and some of the New York
00:08races earlier in the season,
00:10they haven't been as strong races
00:12when you're talking about developing
00:14Kentucky Derby prospects,
00:15but a good horse can come from anywhere
00:17and one of these horses,
00:19maybe a couple of them will end up in
00:20the starting gate come Kentucky Derby Saturday.
00:23Let's start with Global Steve.
00:25So this is a mile and an eighth race at Aqueduct.
00:27Global Steve is two for two.
00:29He won both of his races over at parks.
00:31One of them was on a sloppy track.
00:33He will stretch out though for the first time.
00:35He goes two sprints to a route in here.
00:38How do you think he stacks up?
00:39Do you give him a chance with this group?
00:42You know, interesting.
00:43Like you said, undefeated.
00:44They're adding that distance today,
00:46but when his trainer and jockey team up,
00:48they've won 28% of the time.
00:49So, and that's with a very large sample size
00:52of over 80 horses.
00:53So that's a very significant stat,
00:55but his speed figures are a little bit
00:57of a cut below some others in here.
00:58So I do think we'll need an improvement,
00:59but I think it's possible for him to show us
01:03an improvement based on what we've seen so far.
01:05And the numbers that Alexa was referencing,
01:07you can find those in the daily racing form,
01:10past performances.
01:11And we always give you a code where you can go get
01:13all access past performances.
01:15We have an entire database of statistics.
01:18You can go through every horse,
01:19their last five years, everything.
01:21And you can like formulate the stats however you want.
01:24It's just like a wealth of information there.
01:26You can check that out with the
01:27all access past performances over at drf.com.
01:30Let's move to Surfside Moon.
01:32His lone win came going a mile on the turf.
01:35So he's kind of a tough read for me,
01:37but I will say this rider,
01:39Ceviche who came down from Woodbine
01:41and you and I knew are very familiar with,
01:43he's been fantastic so far.
01:45And a very aggressive rider seems to just pick horses up
01:48and put them on the front end.
01:49So I'll give that a positive,
01:51but I just need to see more from him overall on the dirt.
01:54Yeah, I'm not really feeling him in here.
01:57I didn't see the kind of improvement I wanna see
02:00from a two-year-old that makes me think,
02:02oh, this is a derby caliber horse.
02:04But then again, he's been off since October
02:07and running it too is hard.
02:10And sometimes they do need that time
02:12to grow into themselves and learn.
02:14So it'll be interesting to see this three-year-old debut.
02:17But again, workouts coming into this
02:19are really, really slow.
02:20So I don't love seeing that either.
02:23The number three, Corvus, is a New York bred
02:26and his lone win came against New York bred.
02:28So this is an open race where he's gonna be facing horses
02:31that were bred all over.
02:33He did lose to a couple of nice horses though
02:35in his last few races, Alexa.
02:37A horse named Sand Devil, who is two for two, he lost to.
02:40He also lost to Cyclone State,
02:42who you'll see all throughout the running lines
02:44of a lot of these horses.
02:45And that horse has won their last three,
02:48including the Jerome last time out.
02:50Can you make a case for Corvus?
02:52I mean, Corvus has been steadily improving every race,
02:56I think.
02:56I think this is gonna be a very tough spot for him.
03:00I don't know if I think he can win.
03:01I think he could hit the board maybe,
03:03kind of round out the bottom of the exotics.
03:05But he should be trying to come from off the pace.
03:08And if you look at the time from U.S. pace projector,
03:10it does indicate this should favor the front runners,
03:14the ones on the lead a little bit more.
03:15Yeah, that might be the problem.
03:16He's gonna be coming from way, way out of it here,
03:18maybe more of a horse to pick up some pieces.
03:21Uncle Jim has raced twice.
03:22He won his career debut,
03:24and then he came back in his second start.
03:25He lost to Cyclone State,
03:27who we see in a lot of these horses' past performances.
03:31Cyclone State came back to win the Jerome in his next start.
03:34And I'll say for Uncle Jim,
03:36it was his first try going long.
03:38He kind of loomed up, he took a shot,
03:40and then he just faded.
03:41He tired a little bit.
03:42We see horses do that
03:43when they have that progression sometimes.
03:45They have to kind of build the foundation up,
03:47going a little bit longer.
03:49I don't really have knocks on him, Alexa.
03:51He's just gonna need to improve
03:53to get the better of some of the top horses in here.
03:55My only knock on him is the odds.
03:59We're given three-to-one morning line odds,
04:01which, again, is just a guess of what the odds
04:03are gonna be when the race goes off.
04:04It's all determined by how much money
04:06people wager on each horse.
04:08But I would want more of him to bet him.
04:12That's the key, right?
04:13You want more value on that.
04:14So as gamblers, we have to be patient.
04:18We also have to demand that value.
04:20Remember, there's so many ways we can get action in.
04:22You don't always have to feel like,
04:23I have to throw some on this.
04:24Wait, be disciplined, especially if you're someone
04:27that's watching this and you're playing baseball,
04:29football, basketball.
04:30There's a lot of different options.
04:32Always be disciplined and demand value as a gambler.
04:35Let's move to Moe Quality, Alexa, the number five,
04:38who we both like because his overall body of work,
04:42it's really good.
04:43I love horses like this that I can go through
04:45each of his races and they make sense.
04:47His career debut, he finished second.
04:49He lost to a really nice Wesley Ward horse
04:51that is named Touchy, who's a stakes caliber horse.
04:55Then in his second start, Moe Quality wins.
04:58He breaks his maiden over at Churchill Downs.
05:00Then in his third start, he runs in the Smarty Jones
05:03in a stakes race at Oaklawn.
05:05He finishes second that day,
05:06loses to a nice horse named Cole Battle.
05:08And one of the horses he finishes in front of,
05:11Kale's Angel, is a really nice sprinter.
05:13He came out of that race and he won a sprint stakes race
05:17and then the next time out,
05:17he just makes a lot of sense in here.
05:20Yeah, I mean, never been worse than second.
05:22And if you're looking at the composition of those races,
05:25I mean, two of those were 11 horse field.
05:26So obviously if a horse is getting second
05:29in a five horse field, it's much more impressive.
05:31And an 11 horse field when they're having
05:33a lot more competition, you know, handled the distance,
05:37handled the move up in class pretty well.
05:39So I would expect improvement in the second time out
05:42going long distance, he makes sense.
05:43We move to Captain Cook.
05:45Shout out to Jesse Pinkman.
05:48Now, Captain Cook was a winner last time out
05:51and it was a really impressive win over at Aqueduct,
05:53but it was in the slop.
05:55So when a horse wins like that on a sloppy track,
05:57I'm always a little trepidatious, right?
05:59Because was it the sloppy track that did it
06:02or was it just the improvement?
06:04But he's certainly heading in the right direction.
06:06Absolutely, I mean, one by over nine lengths.
06:08So you're like, wow, but slop carries speed
06:11and also can be hard for other horses to make up ground.
06:15So makes sense in here, definitely could be one to beat,
06:19but getting that morning line favorite odds.
06:22Check, check, check, check, check, check.
06:24Omaha, Omaha, Omaha, as Peyton Manning would say,
06:28we round out the field with Omaha, Omaha.
06:30Another one who was behind Cyclone State last time out.
06:33He was second in the Jerome
06:35and you kind of know what you're gonna get
06:36with this guy, Alexa.
06:37He's just a deep closer.
06:38He's gonna drop back.
06:40He's gonna hope they go fast early.
06:41You see him way behind on the pace projector.
06:44He's the number seven, far behind everyone else.
06:46But if they go fast, he will come closing.
06:49He will, I have included him as my second choice in here.
06:52He's used to running long distances.
06:54He's that closer, the added distance should help,
06:57but it's just, favoring front runner sucks,
07:00but I like Omaha, Omaha.
07:02So let's get two selections
07:03as we get set for our next commercial break.
07:06Alexa and I will both put the five,
07:08low quality with that versatility.
07:10He has some speed, but he can pass horses.